managing strategic investment in an uncertain world: a real options approach roger a. morin, phd...
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Managing Strategic Investment in an Uncertain World:
A Real Options Approach
Roger A. Morin, PhDGeorgia State University
FI 8360 January 2003
3 Valuation Frameworks
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF)
Comparables
Option Value
Agenda
The value of flexibility Real options as a way to capture flexibility Real options and financial options So what? The importance of real options Implementing real option valuation Next steps
Capital Investments as Options
All kinds of business decisions are options!
Virtually every corporate finance decision
involving the issuance of securities or the
commitment of capital to a project involves
options in one way or another.
Real Options Defined
Nobel Prize-winning work of Black-Merton-Scholes
Applications for real (nonfinancial) assets
Extensions for how real assets are managed
What is the value of a contract that gives you the right, but not the obligation to purchase a share of IBM at $100 six months from now?
What is the value of starting a project that gives you the right, but not the obligation, to launch a sales program at a cost of $7M six months from now?
We operate in a fast changing and uncertain market. How can we better make strategic decisions, manage our investments, and communicate our strategy to Wall St?
Why An Options Perspective?
Some shortcomings in the use of ordinary NPV analysis can be overcome
Common ground for uniting capital budgeting and strategic planning can be established
Risk-adjusted discounted rates problem
Investment Decisions
1. Irreversibility
2. Uncertainty
3. Flexibility– Timing
– Scale
– Operations
Investment Decisions
1 & 2 3 is valuable
1 & 2 & 3 Option (flexibility)
valuation
Option Value (a.k.a. flexibility)
Can be largeSensitive to uncertaintyExplains why firms appear to
underinvest
Flexibility: Investments have uncertainty and decision-points
Fund First Develop Test Product Sales Brand Retire
Research Results More Market Launch Extension Product
Your decision New Information
What types of investments does this describe?
R&D related businesses - biotech, pharmaceuticals, entertainment.
Natural resource businesses - extractive industries.
Consumer product companies High-tech companies
Invest/Grow
Scope Up
Switch Up
Scale Up
Defer/Learn
Study/Start
Disinvest/Shrink
Scope Down
Switch Down
Scale Down
Real Option Category
Real Option Type
Current Applications:Some Frequently Encountered Real Options
Timing -- now or later
Exit -- limiting possible future losses by exiting now
Flexibility -- today’s value of the future opportunity to switch
Operating -- the value of temporary shutdown Learning -- value of reducing uncertainty to make better decision
Growth -- today’s value of possible future payoffs
Future Growth Options
Valuable new investment opportunities (“follow-on projects”) can be viewed as call options on assets
Examples:– Exploration
– Capacity expansion projects
– New product introductions
– Acquisitions
– Advertising outlays
– R&D outlays
– Commercial development
Investment Project Options: Examples
Growth Option (“Follow-On Projects”)– Nortel commits to production of digital switching equipment specially
designed for the European market. The project has a negative NPV, but is justified by the need for a strong market position in this rapidly growing, and potentially very profitable, market.
Switching Option– Atlanta Airways buys a jumbo jet with special equipment that allows the
plane to be switched quickly from freight to passenger use or vice versa.
Investment Project Options: Examples
Timing Option– Dow Chemical postpones a major plant expansion. The expansion has
positive NPV, but top management wants to get a better fix on product demand before proceeding.
Flexible Production Facilities– Lucent Technologies vetoes a fully-integrated, automated production line
for the new digital switches. It relies on standard, less-expensive equipment. The automated production line is more efficient overall, according to a NPV calculation.
Investment Project Options: Examples
Fuel Switching– A power plant has the capacity of burning oil or gas. Mgrs can decide
which fuel to burn in light of fuel prices prevailing in the future
Shut-Down Option– A power plant can be shut down temporarily. Mgt. can decide whether or
not to operate the plant in light of the avoided cost of power prevailing in the future
Investment Timing– Mgt. can invest in new capacity now or defer when more information on
demand growth and fuel prices is available
Which is a closer analogy to these types of projects?
Bond Option
Standard NPV analysis treats projects like bonds
Average promised cash flow
up-front investment
Learn
DecideDo not invest
Invest
NPV ignores valuable flexibility
Shortcomings of NPV Analysis
– Passive, assumes business as usual with no management intervention
– Strategic factors ignored– NPV understates value
Operating flexibility ignored Valuable follow-on investment projects ignored
– Many investments have uncertain payoffs that are best valued with an Options approach
– Risk-adjusted discounted rates problem
NPV ROV
Certainty is a narrow path!
Flexibility Active Management
NPV’ = NPVpassive + Option Value
Financial Options A Brief Review
What is an option?
An option provides the holder with the right to buy or sell a specified quantity of an underlying asset at a fixed price (exercise price) at or before the expiration date of the option.
Since it is a right and not an obligation, the holder can choose not to exercise the right and allow the option to expire.
Two types – call options (right to buy) and put options (right to sell).
Call Options
A call option gives the buyer of the option the right to buy the underlying asset at a fixed price (E) at any time prior to the expiration date. The buyer pays a price for this right (premium)
At expiration,– If the value of the underlying asset S > E
Buyer makes the difference: S – E
– If the value of the underlying asset S < E Buyer does not exercise
More generally,– Value of a call increases as the value of the underlying asset increases– Value of a call decreases as the value of the underlying asset decreases
Payoff on Call Option
Price of underlying asset
Net payoff on
call option
Exercise price
If asset value < exercise price, you lose what you paid for call
Payoff on IBM Call Option
IBM Stock price
Net payoff
E = $100
Maximum loss = $5Breakeven = $105
Put Options
A put option gives the buyer of the option the right to sell the underlying asset at a fixed price (E) at any time prior to the expiration date. The buyer pays a price for this right (premium)
At expiration,– If the value of the underlying asset S < E
Buyer makes the difference: E – S
– If the value of the underlying asset S > E Buyer does not exercise
More generally,– Value of a put decreases as the value of the underlying asset increases– Value of a put increases as the value of the underlying asset decreases
Payoff on Put Option
Price of underlying asset
Net payoff on put
Exercise price
If asset value > exercise price, you lose what you paid for put
Determinants of Call Option Value
Stock Price - the higher the price of the underlying stock, the greater the option’s intrinsic value
Exercise Price - the higher the exercise price, the lower the intrinsic value
Interest Rates - the higher interest rates, the more valuable the call option
Volatility of the Stock Price - the more volatile the stock price, the more valuable the option
Time to Maturity - call options increase in value the more time there is remaining to maturity
Effect of Volatility on Option Values
Asset Price
Pro
babi
lity
Time to expiration is one year.
30% Volatility
10% Volatility
Call Option Payoff
Effect of Maturity on Option Value
Asset Price
Pro
babi
lity
Volatility is 20%.
1 Yr Expiration
Call Option Payoff5 Yrs Expiration
Option Premium vs Intrinsic Value
0X
Cal
l opt
ion
pric
e
C
C
Stock Price
X = Exercise PriceCC = Call option premium as function of stock price
Intrinsic value
Time value
Determinants of option value
Variables Relating to Underlying Asset Value of Underlying Asset Variance in that value Expected dividends on the asset
Variables Relating to Option Exercise Price Life of the Option
Level of Interest Rates
Summary of Determinants of Option Value
Factor Call Put
Increase in Stock Price
Increase in Exercise Price
Increase in risk
Increase in maturity
Increase in interest rates
Increase in dividends paid
American vs European Options
American: exercise at any time European: exercise at maturity American options more valuable
Time premium makes early exercise sub-optimal
Exception: Asset pays large dividends
Option Valuation
Binomial Option Pricing Model– Portfolio Replication Method– Risk Neutral Method
Black-Scholes Model– Dividend adjustment– Diffusion vs Jump process
Binomial Option Pricing Model
The Binomial Option Pricing Model assumes that there are two possible outcomes for the price of the underlying asset in each period.
Although this assumption is artificial, realism can be achieved by partitioning the time horizon into many short time intervals, so the number of possible outcomes is large
Useful first approximation
Binomial Price Path
S
Su
Su2
Sud
Sd2
Sd
Binomial Price Path
$100
$110
$90
$120
$100
$80
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2
Creating a replicating portfolio
Objective: use a combination of risk-free borrowing-lending and the underlying asset to create the same cash flows as the option being valued
Call = Borrowing + Buying Δ of Underlying Stock Put = Selling short Δ on Underlying Asset + Lending The number of shares bought or sold is called the option delta
The principles of arbitrage then apply, and the value of the option has to be equal to the value of the replicating portfolio
Creating a Replicating Portfolio
Value of Position Value of Call
If S goes up to Su ΔSu - $B (1 + r) Cu
If S goes down to Sd ΔSd - $B (1 + r) Cd
Replicating Portfolio
Δ Su - $B (1 + r) = Cu
Δ Sd - $B (1 + r) = Cd
Δ = No. of units of underlying asset bought
Cu - Cd
Δ =
Su - Sd
Replicating Portfolio: Example 1
$55
Stock: $50
$45
1-yr Call, E = $50 Rf = 5%
C = $3.57 all investors agree!
Replicating Portfolio: Example 1
Call - Stock Payoffs: (55, 5)
(50, ?) (45, 0)
We can duplicate the above payoffs with a position in common stock and borrowing, that is, by “portfolio replication”.
Replicating Portfolio
Δ Su - $B (1 + r) = Cu
Δ Sd - $B (1 + r) = Cd
Cu - Cd $5 - $0
Δ = = = 0.50
Su - Sd $55 - $45
Δ = 50 shares ! B = $2,142 !
50 shares of stock + 1-year loan of $2,142.86
Portfolio is now worth: 50 x $50 - $2,142.86 = $357.14
Portfolio payoffs: 50 x $55 - 2,250 = 500 (50, ?) 50 x $45 - 2,250 = 0
SAME AS CALL OPTION PAYOFFS! FAIR VALUE OF 100 CALLS = $357.14
No Free Lunch!
Absence of Riskless Arbitrage Profits
If C > $357.14, sell overpriced call
buy duplicating portfolio
KEY: can construct a levered position in underlying stock that gives the same payoffs as the call option.
Binomial Valuation: Example 2
$50
$70
$35
$100
$50
$25
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$50
$0
$0
Call
Binomial Valuation: Example 2
$50
$70
$35
$100
$50
$25
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$50
$0
$0
Call
Replicating Portfolio When S = $70
$70
$100
$50
t = 1 t = 2
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$50
$0
Call Replicating Portfolio
100 Δ - 1.11B = 50
50 Δ - 1.11B = 0
Solving: Δ = 1 B = 45Buy 1 share, borrow $45
Value of Call at t = 1
70 Δ - B = 70 - 45 = $25
Binomial Valuation: Example 2
$50
$70
$35
$100
$50
$25
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$50
$0
$0
Call
Replicating Portfolio When S = $35
$35
$50
$25
t = 1 t = 2
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$0
$0
Call Replicating Portfolio
50 Δ - 1.11B = 0
25 Δ - 1.11B = 0
Solving: Δ = 0 B = 0
Binomial Valuation: Example 2
$50
$70
$35
$100
$50
$25
t = 0 t = 1 t = 2
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$50
$0
$0
Call
Replicating Portfolios for Call Value
$50
$70
$35
t = 0 t = 1
E = $50
Rf = 11%
$25 from Step 1
$0 from Step 1
Call Replicating Portfolio
70 Δ - 1.11B = 25
35 Δ - 1.11B = 0
Solving: Δ = 5/7 B = 22.5Buy 5/7 share, borrow $22.5
Value of Call at t = 0
Cost of replicating portfolio = value of call
50 Δ - B = 50 x 5/7 - 22.5 = $13.20
Binomial PricingRisk-Neutral Method
$55
Stock: $50 $45
1-year Call, E = $50, Rf = 5%
Binomial Pricing: Risk-Neutral Method
Step 1 Solve for probability of rise 0.05 = 0.10 p + (-0.10) (1 - p) p = 0.75Step 2 Solve for expected future value of option
C1 = 0.75 x $5 + 0.25 x $0 = $3.75Step 3 Solve for current value of option
C0 = $3.75/1.05 = $3.57
Note: This is an extremely powerful and useful result from the perspective of devising numerical procedures for computing option values.
The Limiting Distributions……..
As the time interval is shortened, the limiting distribution, as t 0, can take one of two forms:– as t 0, price changes become smaller, the limiting
distribution is the normal distribution and the price process is a continuous one.
– as t 0, price changes remain large, the limiting distribution is the Poisson distribution, i.e. a distribution that allows for price jumps
The Black-Scholes model applies when the limiting distribution is the normal distribution, and assumes that the price process is continuous and that there are no jumps in asset prices
Black-Scholes Model
C = S N(d1) - K e-iT N(d2)
Where:– C = value of the call option
– S = current stock price
– N(d1) = cumulative normal density function of d1
– K = the exercise price of the option
– i = the risk-free rate of interest
– T = expiration date of the option (fraction of a year)
– N(d2) = cumulative density function of d2
– s = standard deviation of the annual rate of return
C = S N(d1) - K e-iT N(d2)Where: d1 = [ln(S/K) + (i + 0.5s2)T] / sT1/2
d2 = d1 - sT1/2
The replicating portfolio is embedded in the Black-Scholes model. To replicate this call, you need to:
– Buy N(d1) shares of stock; N(d1) is the option delta– Borrow K e-iT N(d2)
Black-Scholes Model
Adjusting for Dividends
If the dividend yield (y) of the underlying asset is expected to remain unchanged during the life of the option, the Black-Scholes can be modified:
C = S e-yT N(d1) - K e-iT N(d2)
Where: d1 = [ln(S/K) + (i – y + 0.5s2)T] / sT1/2
d2 = d1 - sT1/2
Application Problems
1. Underlying asset may not be traded; difficult to estimate value and variance of underlying asset
2. Price of the asset may not follow a continuous process3. Variance may not be known and may change over the
life of the option4. Exercise may not be instantaneous5. Some real options are complex and their exercise
creates other options (compound) or involve learning (learning options)
6. More than one source of variability (rainbow options)
Jumping from financial options to real options
FINANCIAL OPTION REAL OPTION
Underlying asset Stock price Value of developed project
Volatility Volatility of stock price returns
Volatility of project returns
Exercise price Exercise price Value of investment
Time to maturity Contract’s maturity License period or rights period
Ownership rights Dividends paid prior to exercise
Cash flow foregone by waiting
Interest rates Interest rate Interest rate
Contract terms American or European Early exercise permitted?
Real Options: Link betweenInvestments and Black-Scholes Inputs
PV of project Free Cash Flow
Outlay to acquireproject assets
Time the decisioncan be deferredTime value of
money
Risk of project assets
Stock price
Exercise price
Time to expiration
Risk-free rate
Variance of returns
S
X
s2
i
T
NPV
“X”Investment
Savg“S”
Value of Developed
Project
“S - X”Conditional
NPV of projectNPV
NPV
“X”Investment
Savg“S”
Value of Developed
Project
“S - X”Intrinsic Value
of Option
LiveOptionValue
DeadOptionValue
Option Value: dead and live
“S”
“S - X”When options really matter
In the
Money
At the
MoneyOut of the Money
“S”
“S - X”When options really matter
In the
Money
At the
MoneyOut of the Money
Characteristics of Projects Where Optionality is Important
“Long-shot” projects (out of the $) Substantial flexibility ignored in project Examples: Valuing investments in oil fields
– Where you are valuing the rights to an “expensive” field– Where you are valuing the rights to produce in a very cheap
field
“ I’m sold, but what do I do?”
Technique
First step is framing the question Next, there are a variety of techniques
– Force-fit problem into stylized model, like Black-Scholes.
– Create customized model to recognize the complicated set of managerial choices
Finally, you have to work through some important nuances.
Framing the question is critical
Identifying the optionality– What is the flexibility?– Is it like a call? A put? A more complicated
structure? Scope out the importance Is this flexibility that is likely to be important to
you? Is the project “marginal” under NPV, but there is phased investment and learning?