managing risk the science and art of it risk assessment for project managers presented at the fcw...
TRANSCRIPT
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Managing RiskThe Science and Art of ITRisk Assessment for Project ManagersPresented at the FCW EventsGovernment PM SummitNovember 2004Michael LisagorCelerity [email protected]
Copyright 2006 Celerity Works
Helping executives accelerate government business growth
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Why Assess Risk?Anticipate problemsIncrease probability of project successKeep your stakeholders happy!Sleep well at night!
Avoid (but be prepared for) Surprises!
Helping executives accelerate government business growth
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Risk AssessmentRequired at the beginning of every projectPrepare a list of all possible issues to include:Business (cost and contract)TechnicalSchedule Resource availability ProgrammaticProduct = several what-if scenarios
Helping executives accelerate government business growth
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Risk AssessmentEstimate the probability and the potential impact for each scenario.Then, identify one or more mitigation measures for each identified risk for the higher probability risks.Example:Risk - two new required staff not recruited in time to support the projectMitigation - identify two internal back-up resources
Helping executives accelerate government business growth
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Sample Risk Decision MatrixHigh
Medium
LowLow Medium HighProbability of FailureAdverse Consequence
Helping executives accelerate government business growth
Establish
Contingency Plans
Monitor Frequently
Establish
Contingency Plans
Act Immediately
if Cost Effective
Unacceptable
Take Immediate
Action
Acceptable,
Do Nothing
Monitor Regularly
Establish
Contingency Plans
Monitor Frequently
Establish
Contingency Plans
Act Immediately if Cost Effective
Acceptable,
Do Nothing
Monitor Occasionally
Establish
Contingency Plans
Monitor Regulary
Establish
Contingency Plans
Act Immediately if Cost Effective
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Risk Decision Record
Helping executives accelerate government business growth
If
Then
Probability
Impact
Actions
List major worries
Describe
Conse-quences
High,
Medium or Low
High, Medium or Low
Acceptable risk, or contingent actions with identified triggers
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Detect Potential Pitfalls EarlyNot involving all key project stakeholdersNot identifying, understanding or involving the real customerVague or changing project objectives or requirements Poorly defined deliverablesVague or nonexistent team role and responsibility definitionsIncomplete, inaccurate or unrealistic schedules and resource needsUnclear task definitionsPoorly defined project assumptionsChanging project scopeNot documenting key information and decisions
Helping executives accelerate government business growth