management of urban bus system

8/14/2019 Management of Urban Bus System

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Funded ByWorld Bank & Public-Private

Infrastructure Advisory FacilitySponsored ByMinistry of Urban Development,

Government of IndiaOrganized By

Indore City Transport ServicesLimited (ICTSL)

Logistic Support By

Institute of Urban Transport



Public Transport Service

& Operations Planning: An Introduction



Course Objectives

1. Learn Basic Characteristicsof Public Transport

2. Acquire Basic Public TransportPlanning Vocabulary

3. Develop Basic Public

Transport Planning Skills



Why is Public TransportPlanning Important?

• Prime Public Transport GoalMeet Community Access and Mobility

Needs

• How do we best meet this goal?

Good planning! – Match citizen needs with appropriate services – Insure service and operations efficiency and

long-term sustainability

?



u c ransport peratorsPerform Same Set of Basic

Activities• Transportation

• Maintenance

• Budgeting and Finance

• General Administration



Transportation• Operate daily scheduled service• Functions

– Drivers

– Conductors – Dispatching – Supervision – Station attendants – Police

• For bus systems, involves the largestnumber of employees

BMTC Driver



• Maintain vehicles needed for operatingdaily schedule

• Maintain PT infrastructure and facilities(e.g., running ways, stations, terminals)

• Vehicle Maintenance Functions – Routine Servicing – Preventive Maintenance – Running Repairs – Component Rebuild – Bus Body Building

• Can be the largest cost center

Maintenance

BMTC Mechanic



Finance• Provide funds to keep system

operating• Maintain control of fiscal resources

• Functions – Budgeting – Accounting

– Revenue Handling – Inventory – Payroll

BMTC Conductor



Administration• Support Management and Ongoing

Operations

• Functions – Human Resources – Labor Relations

– Law – Risk management – Public Information

BMTC Administration Support



Operations Planning Improvesthe Chances of Success!

No Planning

Planning



Service & OperationsPlanning Process

Schedule Building

ServiceChanges

Performance AnalysisContinue to

Monitor Performance

Data Collection• Physical Environment• Market Factors• Current Service

Measures & Standards

NoProblem/OpportunityProblem/Opportunity

Cost Estimation

Demand/RevenueEstimation

Select/ImplementAlternative



Basic Public Transport TermsService

• Route Alignment• Terminal (Route)• Depot• Span of Service• Headway

• Time – Running – Layover/Recovery – Total Cycle

• Speed – Revenue Operating – Running

• Bus (Train)Requirements

• Output – Passenger Revenues – Ridership – Revenue Hours/KM

– Dead Hours/KM – Vehicle Hours/KM – Occupancy Rate – Passenger at

Maximum Load Point

• Networks – Radial – Grid

• Cost



Market and PhysicalPlanning Factors

• Access and Mobility Needs• Demographic Characteristics• Land Use• Physical Operating Environment• Safety and Security



Demographic Factors

• Employed or Not

• Income

•Gender

• Age



Land Use Affects Usage

• Patterns – Macro (Distribution across city) – Site (Walkability)

• Densities – Residential (Origin) – Activity Center (Destination)

Residential Activity Center



Physical Environment Factors

• Street, Roadway System

• Non-Motorized Transport

• Geographic Features

• Public Policies



Geographic Features Affect

Public Transport Usage• Water Bodies

• At-grade railroad crossings

• Weather



Perception of Safety and Security

• Perception is reality! –

Safety (Accidents) – Security (Crime)• Important issue for women

• Public transport accidents, whilerare, maybe newsworthy (big)



Relationship BetweenMeasures and Standards

Measure The Quantitative Degree of Attainment of An

Objective

e.g., Operating ratio (total revenues/ costs) helpsassess financial performance

Standard

The Lowest or Highest Level of PerformanceWhich Is Acceptablee.g., The operating ratio for each route (or system)should be greater than 1.00



Design Measures andStandards

• Often define the minimum criteria for a busservice, e.g., – Geographic Coverage

– Stop Spacing – Policy Headways – Service Span

– Service DirectnessBMTC



Geographic CoverageMeasure Walking Distance to Bus StopsApplication Network

Standard Maximum Walking DistanceMaximum of 500 metersBangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation

BMTC



Stop SpacingMeasure Distance between Bus Stops

Application Route

Standard Maximum Distance

Maximum of 500 metersBangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation

Stop Spacing

500 M



Service SpanMeasure Hours During Which Service isOperated

Application Route

Standard Minimum Hours

Day Service Span

Work Cover work travel

(Longest span)Non-Work(weekend)

Cover mainshopping hours



Service DirectnessMeasure Percent of Passengers Making Two

Transfers (Travel on Three Routes)

Application Network

Standard Maximum of 10%World Bank Technical Paper 68 Bus Services: Raising Standards and Lowering Costs

Route 32

Route 56

Route 30

O i l Effi i d



Operational Efficiency andFinancial Performance

• Measures used to evaluate currentor new services

• Examples – Costs of Production

• Staffing Ratios• Fleet Utilization• Vehicle Reliability

• Dead Kilometers – Revenues

• Passenger Volumes• Earnings

– O eratin Ratio



Typical Route DataCollection Techniques• Driver/Conductor Counts• Revenue Counts

• Farebox Readings• Ride Checks• Point Checks

• Passenger Surveys



Driver/Conductor Counts

Method

BMTC Conductor



Revenue Counts

Metho Route A(In)

Route B

(Out)

Terminal



Farebox Readings

MethodRegistering



Ride Checks(On/Off or Boarding/Alighting)

Metho



Point Checks(Corner Counts)

Method

BMTC



Passenger Surveys

Method

Performance Analysis



Performance AnalysisShould Be Ongoing and

Systematic• Frequency – Desired every month – Reasonable every service schedule change – Minimum once per year

• Approach – Regular comprehensive review of all bus routes – Detailed study of selected routes

• Service levels and efficiency• Operational performance



Common Service Problems 1

• Low profitability/high subsidies

– Low usage, low fares, high costs• Unreliable service – Late trips, missed trips

• Inadequate capacity – Crowding, pass-by’s

• Declining travel speed• Inconvenient transfers

– Too many, poor coordination• Poor safety

– High number of accidents1 Perceived Problems, Evaluate Your Bus System, Urban Bus Toolkit



Performance Review of All Bus Routes

Route DataService Measures

& Standards

PerformanceReview

1

Routes Selectedfor Detailed Study



Routes Are Selected UsingOrdinal Ranking

• Performance of individual routes rankedfrom best to worse

• Routes not meeting standard becomecandidates for further analysis

1



Detailed Study of Selected Routes

2

Three analysis dimensions – Time period

• Time-of-day• Day-of-week

– Route segment

– Time period/route segment



Time Period

Analysis• Time-of-day/day-of-week

breakdown of route performance

• Average performance analyzed by

operating period

2A



Steps in Time Period AnalysisEarnings per KM Example

1. Obtain passenger revenues andrevenue KM by trip.

2. Define analysis operating periods.3. Sum passenger revenues and revenueKM by operating periods.

4. Compute earnings per KM by operatingperiod.

2A



Service Change Options Usedto Address Service Problems

• Vehicle changes

• Schedule adjustments• Operating design changes

• Multiple route service designchanges



Vehicle Assignments

• Approach – Assign different size vehicle to route

• Problem applications – Inadequate capacity (larger vehicles) – Low profitability/high subsidies (fewer

vehicles, smaller vehicles)

BMTC BMTC



Schedule Adjustments

• Running time – Scheduled times between

time points

• Schedule coordinationwith other routes – Scheduled departure and

arrival times



Operating Designs

• Traditional Local• Short-Turns/Turn-backs

• Limited• Express• Branching• Through-Routing



• Approach – Service provided to each stop on route – All trips operate entire length of route – Headway revisions are common design change

Traditional Local Service

ElectronicCity A B C D E

CityMarket

7:00 AM 7:10 AM 7:18 AM 7:26 AM 7:35 AM 7:45 AM 7:53 AM7:10 AM 7:20 AM 7:28 AM 7:36 AM 7:45 AM 7:55 AM 8:03 AM7:20 AM 7:30 AM 7:38 AM 7:46 AM 7:55 AM 8:05 AM 8:13 AM7:30 AM 7:40 AM 7:48 AM 7:56 AM 8:05 AM 8:15 AM 8:23 AM7:40 AM 7:50 AM 7:58 AM 8:06 AM 8:15 AM 8:25 AM 8:33 AM



• Approach – Service provided to each stop on route – Only some trips operate entire length of route

Short-Turns/Turn-Backs


CityMarket

7:00 AM 7:10 AM 7:18 AM 7:26 AM 7:35 AM 7:45 AM 7:53 AM

7:34 AM 7:43 AM 7:53 AM 8:01 AM7:15 AM 7:25 AM 7:33 AM 7:41 AM 7:50 AM 8:00 AM 8:08 AM7:49 AM 7:58 AM 8:08 AM 8:16 AM

7:30 AM 7:40 AM 7:48 AM 7:56 AM 8:05 AM 8:15 AM 8:23 AM

Long (Full) TripShort Trip



• Approach – Service provided to selected stops on route

• High passenger boardings and alightings

– All trips operate entire length of route – Usually “overlays” not replaces local service – Often used in dedicated transit rights-of-way

Limited Service


CityMarket

7:00 AM 7:14 AM 7:29 AM 7:45 AM7:15 AM 7:29 AM 7:44 AM 8:00 AM7:30 AM 7:44 AM 7:59 AM 8:15 AM7:45 AM 7:59 AM 8:14 AM 8:30 AM8:00 AM 8:14 AM 8:29 AM 8:45 AM



• Approach – Non-stop service provided between stop(s) in outer

area and stop(s) in central city or key destination – All trips operate entire length of route – Usually “overlays” not replaces local service – May operate in dedicated transit right-of-way

Express Service


CityMarket

7:00 AM 7:40 AM7:20 AM 8:00 AM7:40 AM 8:20 AM8:00 AM 8:40 AM8:20 AM 9:00 AM



• Approach – Service provided to each stop along the route “trunk” – Trips alternate to the outer “branches”

Route Branching

A B C D ECity

Market7:00 AM 7:20 AM 7:29 AM 7:39 AM 7:47 AM

7:05 AM 7:25 AM 7:34 AM 7:44 AM 7:52 AM7:10 AM 7:30 AM 7:39 AM 7:49 AM 7:57 AM

7:15 AM 7:35 AM 7:44 AM 7:54 AM 8:02 AM7:20 AM 7:40 AM 7:49 AM 7:59 AM 8:07 AM

7:25 AM 7:45 AM 7:54 AM 8:04 AM 8:12 AM

“A” Trip

“B” Trip



Through-Routing

• Approach – Combine two routes with a common terminal

CityMarket

Route Y

Route X

CityMarket

Route XY

Route XY

Wh i S h d l B ildi



Why is Schedule BuildingImportant?

• Passengers – Provide dependable travel – Provide information to travelers

• Operator – Deploy vehicles and operators – Maximize operating efficiency

– Understand trade-offs betweenefficiencies and passenger crowdingand waiting times

?

S h d l B ildi



Schedule BuildingA Five-Step Process

1. Determine headways (frequencies)

2. Prepare headway table (specific trips)

3. Create vehicle assignments (blocking)

4. Create driver assignments (run cutting)

5. Estimate driver requirements (rostering)

1



Determine Headways

• Demand headway – Based on observed (forecast) demand – Efficiency point-of-view

• Policy headway – Maximum headway regardless of demand – Policy set either by:

• Government (public policy)• Operator (marketing concerns)

1

Headway

2



Prepare Headway Table

• Develop line specification• Determine key arrival (departure) times at

key market location

• Determine arrival (departure) times of tripsat the key market location• Add (subtract) running times to determine

arrival/departure times at other time points

2

C t V hi l3



Create VehicleAssignments (Blocking)

3

• Blocks also known as Bus Schedules inIndia

• Link trips together at a common terminal

point – Sometimes involves “deadheading”equipment between routes

• Match arrival and departure times at a

terminal, allowing for "layover”• Make minor schedule modifications(where necessary) to achieve goodlinkages

C t D i A ig t

4



• Run is an operator assignment

• Basic objective is to minimize driver costs

•Need to know: – Types of runs – Labor practices

Create Driver Assignments(Run Cutting)

4

E ti t D i R i t5



Estimate Driver Requirements(Rostering)

• Total Driver Requirements are the Sum

of: – Regular Drivers

– Extra Board Drivers

5

Comp ters Often Are Used in



Computers Often Are Used inSchedule Building

• Labor saving for repetitive tasks – Preparation of headway table – Creation of vehicle blocks

– Creation of driver and conductor runs – Transfer data to software for:

• Paper schedules for passengers

• Interactive passenger trip planners – Internet or station

– Optimization of run cuts – Important when complicated work rules

Two Fundamental? ?



Two FundamentalCosting Questions

• How much does it cost to operate anexisting route, now ? – Use: determine profitability/subsidy

– Time frame: present – Typically involves cost allocation

• How much will it cost in the future to

change service? – Use: budgeting and setting contract rates – Time frame: future – Typically involves analysis of variable and

? ?



Basic Total Cost Concepts

• Operating and Capital Costs

• Direct and Shared Costs

• Fixed and Variable Costs

Total Cost = Operating/Maintenance



Total Cost = Operating/MaintenanceCosts + Capital Costs

• Operating/Maintenance Costs are for items consumed in less than one year e.g., labor, fuel, vehicle replacement parts

• Capital Costs are expenses for long-term

assets, expressed as depreciatione.g., buses, maintenance depots, stations,

Total Cost = Direct Costs +



Total Cost = Direct Costs +Shared Costs

• Direct Costs can be associated directly with(or “counted for”) a specific servicee.g., operator labor, fuel

• Indirect Costs are allocated since theycannot be associated directly with (or “easily counted for”) a specific servicee.g., administrative salaries, depot electricity

Fuel (A) Route (A)Fuel (B) Route (B)

Electricity Route (A)Route (B)

Total Cost = Fixed Costs +



• Variable costs vary as service levels change(e.g., operator labor, fuel)

• Fixed costs do not vary as service levelschange (e.g., administrative salaries, depotelectricity)

Total Cost = Fixed Costs +Variable Costs

TotalVariable

Fixed

Output

C o s

t

Key Principles



Key PrinciplesCost Allocation Models

• Cost is driven by the amount of serviceprovidede.g.,

Cost ( Route A ) < Cost ( Route B ) • Average unit costs apply to all routes and

hourse.g., Average unit cost = 19 Rs/KM

Cost ( Route A ) = 1,000 * 19 Rs/KM = 1,900 Rs

Cost ( Route B ) = 2,000 * 19 Rs/KM = 3,800 Rs

Route KMA 1,000

B 2,000

Basic Steps for Developing



Basic Steps for DevelopingFully Allocated Cost Model

Assemble Data

Assign Expense Line Items

Calculate Unit Costs

1



Assemble Data

• Compile expense data (costs)

• Compile service (“causal factor”) data(e.g., revenue hours, revenue KM, peakvehicle requirement)

1



Issues in Assembling Data

• Projected? Actual?

• What time period? How long?

• Where do we get cost data?

2



Assign Expense Line Items

• Individual expense line items are assignedto the service variable that best drives its

costs – Common driver variables

• Revenue hours• Revenue KM• Peak vehicles

• Requires knowledge of how and whyexpense items vary

2

Calculate Average Unit3



Calculate Average UnitCost

• Determine each variable’s value (e.g.,number of revenue hours)

• Divide the cost by the value of therelated driver or causal factor to obtainaverage unit cost

3



• Principal use is to estimate the changes incost of changes in service

• Incremental costs of service changes areestimated by either: – Recalibrating a fully-allocated cost model

using only variable costs – Omitting the peak vehicle cost factor from the

cost allocation equation

• Inflation should be considered

Incremental CostingFixed

Variable

Total

Output (Hours/Miles)

C o s

t

Th I l C i



The Incremental CostingChallenge

• Handling "step" costs Are they "fixed" or "variable" for the proposed service change?

• The size of the size of service change is

important – The larger the change, the more chancesfixed costs will become variable

When is Demand



When is DemandEstimation Needed?

• Publicly operated/subsidized services – Select among service alternatives

– Support public investment decisions• Operator

– Select among service alternatives to

maximize return – Assess the revenue impact of publicly-

mandated services

?

Demand Estimation Techniques for



qEvaluation of Short-Medium TermService and Operating Changes

• Surveys• Survey potential users regarding response to

potential service change

• Similar routes method• Apply existing service results to proposal

• Statistical models• Develop formula relating existing demand to

current service parameters

• Elasticity models• Apply percent change to current ridership based



Potential User Surveys

Method Survey potential users regardingresponse to service change

Estimation

1. Tabulate survey responses2. Expand the responses to potential users3. Adjust estimates to reflect experience with“stated preference” surveys

— Less people using new or changed service than saythey will in the abstract



Key Issues with Using Surveys

1. Obtaining representative user sample2. Determining adjustment factor

– Ability to realistically describe key service

attributes in a concise, realistic survey – Difference between stated preference and

actual behavior • People often overstate usage of potential

services

3. Cost of conducting and processingsurvey



Similar Routes

Method Ridership on proposed service will reflectridership on an existing service

Estimation

1. Select similar service based on(typical):• Population density• Generators served• Service design (e.g., headways,

span)2. Adjust ridership for differences

• Service levels

≈

Key Issues with Using Similar



Key Issues with Using Similar Routes

1. Identification key differences betweenexisting and new route

2. Approach used to adjust for differences



Statistical ModelsMethod Based on ridership on existing routes and

key service and demographic variablesRidership = B + A 1X1 + A2X2

+ ... +A 3X3

Estimation1. Collect data on existing routes

• Socioeconomic variables — e.g., income• Land use variables — e.g.,

population• Service variables — e.g., headway• Daily ridership

2. Statistically “calibrate” model, develop

r 2 = 0.74



Elasticity Models

Method Elasticity is the ratio of the percentchange in ridership to the percentchange in a transit service parameter (e.g., fares, service levels)

RBefore

RAfter

F After

Fares

R i d e

r s

FBefore

Demand Curve

e

management of urban bus system

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