management committee...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Management Committee Meeting !
Prague, 3-4/10/2013
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MC Prague 1/10/2013 7MCM Brussels 9/11/2012
Where are we ?
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2015
year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4
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1. Adoption of the agenda
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Agenda
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1.Adop/on of the agenda 2.Minutes of last mee/ng 3.Report from the COST Office
a.News from the COST Office b.Status of Ac=on, including par=cipa=ng countries
c.Budget Status, budget planning and alloca=on process
d.Feedback from Domain CommiIee
4.STSM status, applica/ons 5.Progress report of working groups a.Science ac=vi=es in WG 1 to 4 b.Dissemina=on and outreach ac=vi=es by GHOST
6.Ac/on planning c.Budget Planning d.Involvement interna=onal ac=ons
e.Future workshops f.Next management commiIee mee=ngs (in 2014)
g.Organisa=on of the second school (in 2014)
h.Deliverables of TOSCA 7.Miscellaneous 8.AOB
2 Minutes of the last meeting
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3 Report from COST office
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4 Status of the Action
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What happened so far
Many ac=vi=es since November 2012
!
1 new country, several new par=cipants
11 short-‐term scien=fic missions (STSMs)
3 workshops (Paris, Burgas, Tromsø)
1 training school (Thessaloniki)
3 new work-‐package leaders (Hauke, Irina, Yoav)
1 review ar=cle
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New members countries
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Cyprus has just become the 19th country to join TOSCA: Panos Hadjinicolaou (Energy Environment & Water Research Center, The Cyprus Ins=tute)
!
Argen/na has applied to par=cipate with a reciprocal agreement
Dr Ana ELIAS from Universidad Nacional de Tucuman could then par=cipate in STSM
in progress
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New member countries
Two more countries have recently applied
!
Austria as a new member country (Arnold Hanslmeier, Ins=tut für Physik, Graz)
South Africa with a reciprocal agreement (David Perez-‐Suarez, South African Na=onal Space Agency, Hermanus)
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New participants
Italy: Carlo ScoIo, Francesco Berrilli
Belgium: David Bolsée
United Kingdom: Mai Mai Lam
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STSMs
So far 18 STSMs have been accepted (~7 per year)
15 out of 18 were by early stage researchers
12 k€ / year are allocated to STSMs For year 3 we already spent 11900 €
aier a slow start, we finally have a decent number & impact on networking
!12
next calls: December 16 & March 6
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STSMs since Nov 2012
!13
Last name Origin Des/na/on Days AmountMisios, Stergios Thessaloniki University of Oxford 21 2100
Tourpali, Klairie Thessaloniki GEOMAR, Kiel 15 1900
Laken, Ben Canarias Hvar Observatory, Croa=a 26 2240
Sfica, Lucian Bucares= Charles University, Prague 21 1800
Shapiro, Sasha Davos MPI Katlenburg-‐Lindau 7 1260
Ball, Will London MPI Katlenburg-‐Lindau 8 1000
Asenovska, Yana Sofia University of Oulu 14 2100
Georgieva, Katya Sofia University of Oulu 14 2227
Seidenglanz, Anne Bergen GEOMAR, Kiel 11 650
Kozubek, Michal Davos PMOD/WRC, Davos 12 1500
Kapolkova, Hana Prague Ins=tuto de Astrolsica de Canarias 26 1800
Mitchell, Dan Oxford Aristotle University, Thessaloniki 5 1200
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STSMs
Issues
We shall most likely exceed the allocated budget by 2-‐4k€
Should we restrict the number or allocate more ?
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Workshops
Since November 2012 we had 3 workshops
“From the stratosphere to the ionosphere: coupling, boundary condi8ons and assump8ons” WG4 and PNST workshop (Paris, 26-‐28 November 2012)
“Influence of interplanetary perturba8ons on the Earth’s atmosphere and climate” WG2 workshop (Sunny Beach, Bulgaria, 13-‐16 May 2013)
GHOST mee=ng on dissemina=on tools (Tromsø, 26-‐28 August 2013) -‐ funded by Kristoffer !
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more on this in the WG reports
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Training School
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TOSCA Training School
Impact of Solar Variability on Climate
Thessaloniki (Greece), 10-15 March 2013
School booklet
http://sun2climate.sciencesconf.org
28 students from 17 countries (63 applica=ons) 11 trainees (mostly WG leaders)
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Training School
Programme I. Ermolli: The Sun as a star, solar irradiance, and solar data bases K. Georgieva: Solar dynamo, and other manifesta=ons of solar ac=vity J. Lilensten: The space environment K. Tourpali: Introduc=on to the Earth's atmosphere E. Rozanov: Physics and chemistry of the stratosphere C. Stubenrauch: Clima=c studies from space observa=ons J.-‐E. Kristjansson: Climate impacts of energe=c par=cles H. Schmidt: Climate impacts of solar radia=on I K. MaIhes: Climate impacts of solar radia=on II C. Price: Global circuit and atmospheric electricity I. Usoskin: Cosmic rays in the Earth's atmosphere C. Stubenrauch: The IPCC
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Training School
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Training School
Lessons learnt
Several students had problems with topics that were too far away from their field = need focus on basic physical understanding
5 days = too short to cover the Sun-‐climate connec=on. If longer, the school should have a lighter programme.
Innovate in the way we convey informa=on (assessment of the day, ques=ons to students, hands-‐on computer session, debate, ...)
This school should have been organised in year 1.
!19report available on TOSCA website
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New work-package leaders
3 WG leaders decided leave their func=on because of over-‐commitment
Ulrike Langematz (WP4) replaced by Hauke Schmidt
Claudia Stubenrauch (WP3) replaced by Irina Mironova
Jon-‐Egill Kristjánsson (WP3) replaced by Yoav Yair
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Review article is out
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Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 3945–3977, 2013www.atmos-chem-phys.net/13/3945/2013/doi:10.5194/acp-13-3945-2013© Author(s) 2013. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
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Advances in Geosciences
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Discussions
Recent variability of the solar spectral irradiance and its impact onclimate modellingI. Ermolli1, K. Matthes2, T. Dudok de Wit3, N. A. Krivova4, K. Tourpali5, M. Weber6, Y. C. Unruh7, L. Gray8,U. Langematz9, P. Pilewskie10, E. Rozanov11,12, W. Schmutz11, A. Shapiro11, S. K. Solanki4,13, and T. N. Woods101INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma, Monte Porzio Catone, Italy2GEOMAR I Helmholtz-Zentrum fur Ozeanforschung Kiel, Kiel, Germany3LPC2E, CNRS and University of Orleans, Orleans, France4Max-Planck-Institut fur Sonnensystemforschung, 37191 Katlenburg-Lindau, Germany5Laboratory of Atmospheric Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece6Institut fur Umweltphysik, Universitat Bremen FB1, Bremen, Germany7Astrophysics Group, Blackett Laboratory, Imperial College London, SW7 2AZ, UK8Centre for Atmospheric Sciences, Dept. of Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, UK9Institut fur Meteorologie, Freie Universitat Berlin, Berlin, Germany10University of Colorado, Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics, Boulder, CO, USA11Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium, World Radiation Center, Davos Dorf, Switzerland12IAC ETH, Zurich, Switzerland13School of Space Research, Kyung Hee University, Yongin, Gyeonggi 46-701, Republic of Korea
Correspondence to: I. Ermolli ([email protected])
Received: 29 July 2012 – Published in Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss.: 19 September 2012Revised: 6 March 2013 – Accepted: 13 March 2013 – Published: 17 April 2013
Abstract. The lack of long and reliable time series of so-lar spectral irradiance (SSI) measurements makes an accuratequantification of solar contributions to recent climate changedifficult. Whereas earlier SSI observations and models pro-vided a qualitatively consistent picture of the SSI variability,recent measurements by the SORCE (SOlar Radiation andClimate Experiment) satellite suggest a significantly strongervariability in the ultraviolet (UV) spectral range and changesin the visible and near-infrared (NIR) bands in anti-phasewith the solar cycle. A number of recent chemistry-climatemodel (CCM) simulations have shown that this might havesignificant implications on the Earth’s atmosphere. Moti-vated by these results, we summarize here our current knowl-edge of SSI variability and its impact on Earth’s climate.We present a detailed overview of existing SSI measure-
ments and provide thorough comparison of models availableto date. SSI changes influence the Earth’s atmosphere, bothdirectly, through changes in shortwave (SW) heating andtherefore, temperature and ozone distributions in the strato-sphere, and indirectly, through dynamical feedbacks. We in-
vestigate these direct and indirect effects using several state-of-the art CCM simulations forced with measured and mod-elled SSI changes. A unique asset of this study is the use of acommon comprehensive approach for an issue that is usuallyaddressed separately by different communities.We show that the SORCE measurements are difficult
to reconcile with earlier observations and with SSI mod-els. Of the five SSI models discussed here, specificallyNRLSSI (Naval Research Laboratory Solar Spectral Irra-diance), SATIRE-S (Spectral And Total Irradiance REcon-structions for the Satellite era), COSI (COde for Solar Ir-radiance), SRPM (Solar Radiation Physical Modelling), andOAR (Osservatorio Astronomico di Roma), only one showsa behaviour of the UV and visible irradiance qualitativelyresembling that of the recent SORCE measurements. How-ever, the integral of the SSI computed with this model overthe entire spectral range does not reproduce the measuredcyclical changes of the total solar irradiance, which is an es-sential requisite for realistic evaluations of solar effects onthe Earth’s climate in CCMs.
Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union.
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What went less well
Finances: many small technical problems (takes a lot of =me)
Changes in WG3: this WG gets a new but late start
Limited availability due to personal problems: Katja, Jean, ...
Conformism: too busy to innovate
Recurring issue: how to get everyone involved ?
...
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4 STSMs
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5 Progress of the individual
working groups
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Thin Ice
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“Thin Ice” by Simon Lamb, hIp://thiniceclimate.org
6 Action planning
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Where are we now ?
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Roadmap
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year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
June 2015
June 2011
we are here
MC MC MC MC MC MC
training school
W W W WW W W W WW
training school
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Roadmap
!
Lots of results -‐ =me has come to synthesize them
Need also to quan/fy our results whenever possible : “Towards a more complete assessment of the impact of solar...”
We promised several deliverables, see item 6f
!29
6a Budget planning
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Budget for year 3
We budgeted the following events for year 3
event date costScience and MC mee=ng (Prague) October 2013 39350MC mee=ng (Vienna) April 2014 15546WG1+4 future solar irradiance Spring 2014 11600WG2+4 effect of par=cles Spring 2014 11600WG3 cosmic ray effects on clouds Spring 2014 11600GHOST mee=ng August 2013 0STSM 12000Dissemina=on, leaflets, etc. 1000Grant holder (bank charges, etc) 15404Total 118100
6b Involvement in international
actions
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Spinoffs
Several spinoffs
FP7 collabora=ve project SOLID on the reconstruc=on of a homogeneous solar spectral irradiance database (Margit Haberreiter)
ISSI team “Effects of interplanetary disturbances on the Earth’s atmosphere and climate” (Katya Georgieva)
German ROMIC project on “Role Of the Middle Atmospherei In Climate” (Franz-‐Josef Lübken)
par=cipa=on in future SCOSTEP programme...
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SCOSTEP
mid 2012: SCOSTEP issues a call for white papers
31 December 2013: white paper submiIed jointly by HEPPA, SOLARIS and TOSCA.
7-‐8 May 2013: SCOSTEP forum at ISSI to select future programmes. Annika presents our white paper.
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SCOSTEP
Nine white papers submieed Solar-‐Terrestrial Evolu=on & Climate Connec=ons (Piet Martens) Abnormal Phenomena and Cycles in Sun-‐Earth System (APECSES), (Vladimir Kuznetsov) Coronal Hea=ng and the Accelera=on of the Solar Wind (Mahboubeh Asgari-‐Targhi) Specifica=on and Predic=on of the Coupled Inner Magnetospheric Environment -‐ SPeCIMEN (Jacob Bortnik) Data Assimila=on for the Thermosphere and Ionosphere (Mihail Codrescu) Role Of the MIddle Atmosphere/Lower Thermosphere in Climate (ROMIC), Franz-‐Josef Lübken Atmospheric ‘Trends’ (Jan Lastovička) Role of Solar Variability in Climate (Annika Seppälä) New programme from Japanese SCOSTEP commiIee (Tatsuki Ogino)
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SCOSTEP
Nine white papers submieed Solar-‐Terrestrial Evolu=on & Climate Connec=ons (Piet Martens) Abnormal Phenomena and Cycles in Sun-‐Earth System (APECSES), (Vladimir Kuznetsov) Coronal Hea=ng and the Accelera=on of the Solar Wind (Mahboubeh Asgari-‐Targhi) Specifica=on and Predic=on of the Coupled Inner Magnetospheric Environment -‐ SPeCIMEN (Jacob Bortnik) Data Assimila=on for the Thermosphere and Ionosphere (Mihail Codrescu) Role Of the MIddle Atmosphere/Lower Thermosphere in Climate (ROMIC), Franz-‐Josef Lübken Atmospheric ‘Trends’ (Jan Lastovička) Role of Solar Variability in Climate (Annika Seppälä) New programme from Japanese SCOSTEP commiIee (Tatsuki Ogino)
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SCOSTEP
Final result of the merger
ROSMIC (atmosphere & climate): F.-‐J. Lübken, Stan Solomon, Annika Seppälä, William Ward
SPeCIMEN (magnetosphere): Jacob Bortnik, Craig Rodger, Richard Thorne, Mark Clilverd, Richard Horne, Yoshi Miyoshi, David Shklyar, Ian Mann, Eric Donovan, Ioannis Daglis, Mark Lester
SEE, Solar Evolu=on and Extrema (solar): Piet Martens, Vladimir Obridko, Dibyendu Nandi
ISEST/MiniMax24 (The Interna=onal Study for Earth-‐Affec=ng Solar Transients), a currently ongoing project lead by Jie Zhang.
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SCOSTEP
New overall programme
VARSTI (Variability of the Sun and its Terrestrial Impact)
Leaders: Katya Georgieva and Kazuo Shiokawa
Time frame: Jan 2014 -‐ Dec 2018
Budget ~60 kEuro / year
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EGU
!39
TOSCA session on "Solar Influence on the Middle Atmosphere and Dynamical Coupling to the
Troposphere and the Ocean” Chairs: Katja MaUhes, Margit Haberreiter
2014
Submit your abstract to that session!
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Horizon 2020
!40
Please lobby your na/onal representa/ves and tell them about the importance of cross-‐thema/c calls (our white paper)
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Marie Curie ITN
!41
ITN = International Training Networknetwork between 3-‐12 ins=tu=ons funding for PhD students (mostly), some post-‐docs dura=on: 3-‐36 months mobility: each student spends at least 12 months in a partner ins=tu=on salary for the student + overhead for the lab criteria: scien=fic quality AND capacity to train students private partnership is an asset
Katja and I are not able anymore to run such a project. Anyone interested ?
6c + 6d Future activities
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Boundary conditions
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Budget lei for mee=ngs
year 3 (un=l May 2014): ~33 kEuro
year 4 ~90 kEuro
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Needs
WG2
lots of disparate results, mostly low LOSU
need for synthesis
has an ISSI team
WG3
has to catch up, most results with low LOSU
inves=gate the atmosphere-‐electric circuit connec=on
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Needs
WG 1-‐2-‐3-‐4
evaluate future ac=vity & recommend scenarios
test these scenarios
need for a joint mee=ng, including HEPPA/SOLARIS
!
WG 4
ocean-‐atmosphere coupling
coupling with upper atmosphere (with WG2) ?
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Needs
GHOST
=me to product fact sheets, FAQ, movies
!
all
methodological issues: best prac=ces
!46
!47
when year 3 year 4STSM 14000 14000MCM Prague Oct 2013 40000MCM Vienna April 2014 18000MCM final April 2015 42000WG 1-‐4 solarMIP workshop Oct 2013 2000WG 3 workshop cloud-‐CR-‐atmosphere April 2014 14000WG 3-‐ISSI workshop June 2014 5000WG 1-‐2-‐3-‐4-‐SOLID workshop future scenarios April 2014 26000GHOST workshop June 2014 5000GHOST workshop Nov 2014 5000School Oct 2014 26000Conference grants
Dissemina=on 2000
Subtotal 114000 99000Grant holder (max 15%) 17100 14850Total 131100 113850
Allocated 131800 131800
OPTION 1
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when year 3 year 4STSM 20000 12000MCM Prague Oct 2013 40000MCM Vienna April 2014 18000MCM final April 2015 42000WG 1-‐4 solarMIP workshop Oct 2013 4000WG 3 workshop cloud-‐CR-‐atmosphere April 2014 16000WG 3-‐ISSI workshop Feb 2014 4000WG 3-‐ISSI workshop end 2014 4000WG 1-‐2-‐3-‐4-‐SOLID workshop future scenarios Sept 2014 28000GHOST workshop March 2014 5000GHOST workshop Nov 2014 5000School Oct 2014 26000Conference grantsWG2 ISSI team 4000Dissemina=on 5000 2000
Subtotal 116000 119000Grant holder (max 15%) 17400 15000Total 133400 134000
Allocated 131800 131800
OPTION 2
6d Next management commitee
meeting
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Next MCM
!50
year 1 year 2 year 3 year 4
June 2012
June 2013
June 2014
June 2015
June 2011
we are here
MC MC MC MC MC MC
W W W WW W W W WW
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Next MCM
!
One day at the EGU (Vienna, 28/4 or 2/5)
or
One day at HEPPA/SOLARIS (Baden-‐Baden, 4/5 or 10/5)
Objec=ve: plan the ac=vi=es of the last year
Date: Sunday before or Saturday aier ?
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Final MCM
Final MCM and science mee=ng
Has to be in April-‐May 2015, mostly science (conclusions of TOSCA) & evalua=on
Ques/on 1: open mee=ng (= larger exposure) ?
Ques/on 2: if open, in what format ?
HEPPA/SOLARIS (but already in May 2014)
large session at EGU (Vienna)
SCOSTEP mee=ng (place TBD)
jointly with Space Climate Symposium (Finland)
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6e Next training school
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Next training school
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Thessaloniki, March 2013
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Next training school
!55
The second training school is part of our deliverables
Op/ons
before May 2014 (TBD)
13-‐17 Oct 2014 at ICTP, jointly with the SOLID projectfunding secured
spring 2015, jontly with space climate school (TBD)
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Next training school
Organising commieee
Yoav Yair (coordinator)
Klairie Tourpali (for SOLID)
Jean Lilensten
Thierry DdW
Fred Kucharski (if at ICTP)
someone from Italy (if at ICTP)
Ilya Usoskin (finances)
...!56
Any more (highly) mo/vated people ?
6f Deliverables
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Deliverables
We promised a list of deliverables
!
But COST ac=ons are flexible and can deliver almost anything -‐ as long as it meets the objec=ves, or does beIer!
!
a report
a collec=on of peer-‐reviewed ar=cles
a movie
....
h
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Deliverables
!59
The 9 deliverables that are in our memorandum of
understanding
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Deliverables
1. A scien=fic report quan=fying the impact and the level of uncertainty of the various mechanisms by which solar variability affects climate, including neglected processes such as the impact of interplanetary perturba=ons and par=cle precipita=on at high la=tudes. These results will serve as inputs for the IPCC and will be published in interna=onal peer-‐reviewed journals.
Status
WG1: paper is out (Ermolli et al. 2013)
WG2: paper planned (Georgieva et al., 2015)
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Deliverables
2. An online catalogue of recommended solar, interplanetary and energe=c par=cle proxies based on direct measurements or on past reconstruc=ons, with links to their sources. The catalogue will offer data sets with recommended proxies. These data, as well as all those used by the Ac=on, are public.
Status : non exis=ng but can be produced
Issues
is this appropriate ? what is missing ?
catalogue hosted by SOLID project ?
!61We need a small team. Who ?
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Deliverables
3. An online catalogue of climate models, with their descrip=on and a par=cular emphasis on their input/output data. This catalogue will be similar to the successful one developed within the COST 724 Ac=on and which is now housed by the European Space Weather Portal (hIp://www.spaceweather.eu).
Status: non exis=ng
Issues
is it s=ll appropriate ?
who will host it ?!62
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Deliverables
4. Improve the interconnec=on between models that describe the different atmospheric layers. Interfacing these models is a real challenge because they have different structures and oien the physics has to be sacrificed to make the parameter-‐passing tractable. TOSCA will promote and coordinate runs that highlight specific regions or effects, and make recommenda=ons on new linkages between models.
Status: has been discussed at the mee=ng in Paris (2012)
Issues:
objec=ve reached ? s=ll relevant ?!63
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Deliverables
5. “fact sheets” aimed at a non-‐technical audience and policy-‐makers, on the role of the Sun in climate change.
Status: in progress
Issues:
need for maintenance ?
transla=on into several languages ?
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Deliverables
6. Joint events with other programmes (CAWSES, SOTERIA, Space Climate Symposium, ...) and the promo=on at European mee=ngs (European Meteorological Society, European Geosciences Union, European Space Weather Week) of sessions devoted to the Sun-‐climate connec=on.
Status: under way, especially at the EGU
Issues
failed for the EMS, by lack of interest
no aIempts to do it with CAWSES
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Deliverables
7. Inves=gate the possibility for launching a sec=on on the Sun-‐climate connec=on in an interna=onal refereed journal. The “Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate”, which will be created in 2011, is one possible op=on.
Status: done
Issues
use SWSC to publish your results !
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Deliverables
8. For the non-‐technical audience, develop an outreach sec=on on the Ac=on website, with factual informa=on on the controversial Sun-‐climate connec=on and a forum for asking ques=ons. Other tools for outreach will be inves=gated, such as TV clips and cartoons for children, based on the experience gained in other projects.
Status: s=ll small, but in progress
Issues:
long-‐term maintenance
create independent website “Sun-‐climate literacy” ?
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Deliverables
9. A handbook on the mechanisms by which solar variability affects climate. This document will serve to the different communi=es as a manual for understanding the data and the models. It will also establish common prac=ces in data analysis and in model valida=on. Many specula=ve claims rely on simple correla=on analyses and this Ac=on will enforce the use of more robust sta=s=cal measures of possible causal rela=onships.
Status: non exis=ng
Issues: we must start working on it now
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Handbook
Objec/ve: collect all our results in one single document that can serve as a final report
AND
be useful both to us and to the others.
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Handbook
Ideas collected
a science handbook may become obsolete and there is already the heliophysics series
what public do we want to address: young, students, general public, scien=sts, both ?
a special issue / review ar=cles (e.g. Nature) may give more exposure but requires a lot of work.
a book for young students and involve journalists to comment on it
we can also consider other tools, such as TED-‐like short videos...
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Handbook : suggestion
Our sugges/on
A handbook for the educated public & students
General philosophy: present state of understanding, with the methodology and open issues. Focus on the facts while showing our role as humans (e.g. Thin Ice)
Contents: collec=on of short sec=ons (3-‐6 pages each) on specific aspects of the sun-‐climate connec=on
Few equa=ons, but well illustrated
Distributed wri=ng: 1-‐3 authors per chapter, with a strong editorial board
Presenta=on of the authors at the end!71
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Thin Ice
!72
“Thin Ice” by Simon Lamb, hIp://thiniceclimate.org
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Handbook
Role of the editorial board
prepare a structure with suggested sec=on =tles
iden=fy authors
monitor review process and overall progress
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Publisher: TBD
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Handbook
Agenda
October 2013 : refine aims and structure
November 2013 : define chapters. Call for authors
January 2014 : final structure of the book. Selec=on of publisher
January-‐June 2014 : wri=ng
July-‐December 2014 : internal review
January 2015 : final version
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MC Prague 1/10/2013
Handbook
Editorial board:
Jean Lilensten (coord)
Klairie Tourpali
Hauke Schmidt
Yoav Yair
Margit Haberreiter
Thierry DdW
Katja MaIhes
...
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Any more (highly) mo/vated people ?
7. Miscellaneous
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Reminder
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When you receive an invita=on by e-‐cost, please validate asap !
Exact costs can be added later on.
8. Any other business ?
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