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Management and Conservation of Rhino Populations on State Owned Land
Sam FerreiraDavid Mabunda, Hector Magome, Howard Hendriks
CITES, Bangkok, 5 March 2013
© Markus Hofmeyr
Why should rhinos matter?
Species EcosystemsVaried threats Mega-herbivore disturbance
Endangered and threatened Disturbance key process
Existence value Heterogeneity
Educational value Biodiversity
Indicator species value Resilience
Science value Ecosystem services
© Sam Ferreira
What are conservation objectives?
© Cathy Greaver
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Growth Meta-population Genetic
Range state reports and
strategies
Where are Africa’s rhinos?
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Black
White
5055
20405
Data provided by Richard Emslie, AfRSG © Sam Ferreira
Rhino values revisited
• Purist conservation value– Persistence of species
• Ecological role– Ecological engineer
• Economic value– Non-consumptive
• Rhino trading• Ecotourism
– “Consumptive”• Hunting• Medicinal
© Markus Hofmeyr
© http://ngm.nationalgeographic.com/
Management
Intensity
System
IntegrityEcological
Management
Threat
Management
Techniques
Ecological
Economical
Social
ScaleRestricted
Small
Fragmented
Large
Big
Continuous
Techniques
VisionRhinos play an important role in African socio-economic-ecological system integrity
with their persistence improving the quality of living and enhancing livelihoods of local people
Persistence Drivers
Individual LandscapeEcological paradigmMaximize productivity Maximize heterogeneity
Non-consumptive Consumptive
External revenue Internal revenueSustainability paradigm
Case studies Systemic studiesInformation paradigmHusbandry Process
Mimic RestoreManagement paradigmZoo extralimital Historic distribution
Registration Statistical sample
Individual models Population modelsEvaluation paradigm
Mimimize?? Minimize??Threat paradigm
C. s.
cottoni
B. b.
michaeli
B. b.
bicornis
B. b.
minor
C. s.
simum
Implications of varied values
Case-specific challenges
Restrictions of common approaches
Uncertainty of case-specific responses
Adaptive management to learn by doing
© Markus Hofmeyr
Where did South Africa come from?Population enhancement and range expansion
Year Key event
1895 20-50 white rhinos in Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park
1961 Development of capture techniques
1968 First hunts
1977 CITES Appendix 1
1981 Management removals intensify
1988 1st Auction of live rhinos – Private ownership allowed
1993 CITES Appendix 2 for South African White Rhinos
2003 CITES Appendix 2 for Swaziland White Rhinos
2008 Poaching intensifies© Sam Ferreira
White rhino population manipulation in Kruger
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200N
um
be
r o
f w
hit
e r
hin
os
19
70
19
80
19
90
20
00
20
10
351
Introductions
1509
Removals
85% sold
Ferreira, Botha & Emmett 2012
Rhino ownership in South Africa2010
Ownership White rhino Black rhino
Private land 4531 446
SANParks 10605 775
Provincial 3644 695
Totals 18780 1916
© Sam Ferreira
Rhino conservation successPioneers saw value in what they were doing
Large protected areas provided recovery
Innovative approaches provided expansion
Legal incentives provided more areas
Most values of rhinos were recognized
© Sam Ferreira
The changing South African context
2007 to 2010Annual increase of 4.7%
18780 white rhinos
758 poached rhinos
1797 rhinos fewer
Rhinos increased but could have done so faster if no poaching
© Sam Ferreira
Responses
Minister’s National Strategy 2010• Immediate action plan• Shared commitment
– Financial– Manpower– Political will
• Central Structure– Law enforcement– Investigation– Prosecution
• Information management• Pro-active security
Black rhino management plan – 2013
White rhino draft management plan
© Markus HofmeyrDEA 2010
Strategic Rhino Management ObjectivesSANParks
Manage the ecological effects and enhance threatened species• Restore spatial limitations of the landscape
• Manipulating populations to maximize population growth
• Expand existing range
Manage poaching threats to socio-economic-ecological system integrity• Enhance law enforcement capacity and networks
• Advocate approaches to change commodity values
Mimic process to reconcile game sales and ecological outcomes
Align co-management and contractual agreements
Evaluate, inform and revise rhino management
© Sam Ferreira
Information provided by SANParks
What did Kruger do?
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Law Enforcement Staff
Other
SANParks
0
10000000
20000000
30000000
40000000
50000000
60000000
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Budget input
Operational
Staff Costs
11.5% per annum
7.3% per annum
Operating budget - ≈ZAR 27m
Law Enforcement Staff – 396Additional Forces - 180
Equipment - ≈ZAR 6.7m
Helicopters – 3Light Aircraft – 2Micro-light Aircraft – 3Dog units - 15
Data provided by SANParks
© Rudi van Aarde
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Poaching in Kruger National Park
White Black
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Arrests in Kruger National Park
Deceased Alive
Data provided by SANParks
© Sam Ferreira
Rhinos in Kruger
Ferreira, Botha & Emmett 2012
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nu
mb
er o
f rh
ino
s
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Nu
mb
er
of
rhin
os
Ferreira, Greaver & Knight 2011
White rhino Black rhino
White Rhinos - Small Reserves
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Mpumalanga Province
Mthethomusha
Ohrigstad Dam
Loskop
Songimvelo
Andover
Manyeleti
Growth 1.9%
(0.1% - 3.7%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Limpopo Province
Dnyala
Letaba
Atherstone
Growth 24.4%
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
KwaZulu-Natal Province
Other
Hluhluwe-iMfolozi
Growth 3.4%
(2.5% - 4.4%)
Data provided by Johan Eksteen, Johan Kruger & Tony Conway
© Mike Knight
Black Rhinos - Small Reserves
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
SANParks
Marakele
Mokala
Karoo
Mountain Zebra
Darlington
Nyati
Main Camp
Growth 7.7%
(6.5% - 8.9%)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
KwaZulu-Natal Province
Other
Hluhluwe-iMfolozi
Growth -0.6%
(-1.2% - 0.0%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
Limpopo Province
Atherstone
Growth -11.1%
Data provided by SANPArks, Johan Kruger & Tony Conway
© Mike Knight
South African ownership
White Rhino 2010 2012 Change
SANParks 10649 10641 -8
Provinces 3644 3710 66
Private owners 4531 4527 -4
Black rhino 2010 2012 Change
SANParks 797 913 116
Provinces 695 697 2
Private owners 447 434 -13
© Sam Ferreira
Where are we going?
-2.500
-2.000
-1.500
-1.000
-0.500
0.000
0.500
1.000
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Po
pu
lati
on
gro
wth
ra
te
Nu
mb
er
of
rhin
os
Ferreira, Botha & Emmett 2012
© Cathy Greaver
More of the same is not working
An integrated approach
Ferreira & Okita-Ouma 2012
Incentive Thresholds
Ferreira, Pfab & Knight 2013 Submitted
Risk-benefit profiles of alternative rhino poaching management scenarios
-50 -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Direct disincentives - Status Quo
International awareness
Restricted trade
Live animal provision
Unrestricted trade
Risk-benefit score
Ferreira, S.M., Pfab, M. & Knight, M.H. 2012. Alternative management strategies to address rhino poaching in South Africa. Unpublished Report, SANParks and SANBI, Pretoria.
Not all the options are available
Be smart with those that South Africa have
© Rangers at Jock
Tactically re-activeContain the situation
Strategic re-activeRestrict demand network
Tactical pro-activeImprove the situation
South Africa’s obliged symptomatic response
IntelligenceHuman intelligence
Technical intelligence
AlliancesLFTP, Concessions, Game Ranches
United, Farmers, Rural communities
DoctrineJoint task force Air power
Special operations Night operations
Counter poaching Integrated execution
Renewed focus Use force multipliers
OrganizationCommand unity Support division
Joint operations Centre
Protection Services
Management information flow
SustainmentFocused support structure
Accommodation Uniforms
Personal equipment
Mobility Air component
TrainingLeader group Tracking
Counter poaching tactics
Specialist rangers
Dog handlers
Equipment & TechnologyVehicles Radios Semi-automatic rifles
Maps Personal webbing Dogs
Inventory management Equipment
Poacher tracking integrated sensors
Air night vision Own force tracking
PeopleIntegrity validation Leader group
Anti-poaching mindset Ranger phase-in
100% effective strength
Focused redeployment Manage Stress
Enhance Protection Services
Ca
pa
city
re
qu
ire
d
MenSpecial rangers
MaterialNew uniform Dogs and equipment
MachineHelicopter night sights Radios
Semi-automatic rifles Vehicles
Own force tracking system
Poaching tracking systemRe
sou
rce
s R
eq
uir
ed Operational (ZAR5m)
Competitive fair salaries
Transfers and promotions
Patrol allowance LVA analyses
Dogs and Equipment Webbing
Capital (ZAR7m)Helicopter night sights Radios
Blue forces tracking
Red forces tracking
Rifles
Information provided by Gen Johan Jooste
© Sam Ferreira
Getting smart?
© Sam Ferreira
South Africa needs lateral thinking and information
© Sam Ferreira
What about other objectives?
© Rangers at Jock
Re-maximizing growth
Equilibrium
Models
Exponential
Models
12 23
Ferreira, Botha & Emmett. 2012
Adaptive management criteria • Equilibrium dynamics• Non-poaching hotspot• Source characteristics
• 187 removed• 450 Kruger response in t+1• 20 expansion response in t+1
Substantial offset of poaching
Lessons learnt
• More of the same is not working
• Not all options are available
• Be smart with those that we have
• South Africa can focus management responses
• South Africa needs innovative thinking and information
• South Africa faces uncertainty
• Adaptive management may assist in learning by doing
© Sam Ferreira
International environmental agreements
• CITES regulate species trade– Define populations as administrative units
– Imprecise population trends
– Uncertainty of market responses
– Majority decisions vulnerable to lobbying tactics
van Aarde, R.J. & Ferreira, S.M. 2009. Elephant populations and CITES trade resolutions. Environmental Conservation 36: 8-10.
© Rudi van Aarde
Management
Intensity
System
IntegrityEcological
Management
Threat
Management
Techniques
Ecological
Economical
Social
ScaleRestricted
Small
Fragmented
Large
Big
Continuous
Techniques
VisionRhinos play an important role in African socio-economic-ecological system integrity
with their persistence improving the quality of living and enhancing livelihoods of local people
Persistence Drivers
Individual LandscapeEcological paradigmMaximize productivity Maximize heterogeneity
Non-consumptive Consumptive
External revenue Internal revenueSustainability paradigm
Case studies Systemic studiesInformation paradigmHusbandry Process
Mimic RestoreManagement paradigmZoo extralimital Historic distribution
Registration Statistical sample
Individual models Population modelsEvaluation paradigm
Mimimize?? Minimize??Threat paradigm
C. s.
cottoni
B. b.
michaeli
B. b.
bicornis
B. b.
minor
C. s.
simum
CITES ChallengesTrading off gains and losses
White Rhino Country Black Rhino
1.95% Kenya 12.5%
0.00% Tanzania 2.5%
0.07% Uganda 0.0%
0.00% Malawi 0.5%
0.00% Angola 0.0%
0.05% Zambia 0.5%
0.00% Mozambique 0.0%
0.91% Botswana 0.2%
0.41% Swaziland 0.4%
1.39% Zimbabwe 8.3%
2.57% Namibia 34.6%
92.67% South Africa 40.4%
Values Restrictions Risks
What could be useful in future?
• Pan-African approaches– Integrated strategic framework
– Recognize populations as ecological units
– Recognize economic complex influences
• Align with Pan-Asian approaches
• Strategic adaptive management
• Lead by key African and Asian Governments
© Sam Ferreira