Bangkok, June 2011

1

M.A.M. OktaufikM.A.M. Oktaufik

Centre of Technology for Energy Resource Development, BPPTCentre of Technology for Energy Resource Development, BPPT

OutlineOutline

• Introduction: RE Projects & Business

Opportunities & Current Status

• Vision & National Energy Policy: Energy System

& Clean Energy Technology

• Indonesia Energy Outlook 2010: Predicting 2030

• Closing Remarks

Introduction: National Energy Introduction: National Energy

ChallengesChallengesa) Inefficiency of energy utilization in various sectors;

b) The trend of rising dependence on fossil energy that can not be adequately offset by

the increase in provision, while the use of non-fossil energy is still relatively small;

c) Infrastructure constraints that hamper the process of energy distribution of energy

resources to the user causing gaps in the provision of energy;

d) High risk of energy Investment risk resulting from investments in the energy

sector are still high;

e) Energy prices are not yet in its economic value, due to inappropriate application

of subsidies on some types of energy, causing delays in the development

of various types of new alternative and renewable energies;

f) Low capacity of local technology (industry) which led to the high dependence

on imported technology;

g) Low public access to energy, and

h) Energy management has not fully applied as well as the principle of sustainable energy

development

Source: KNRT, Buku Putih Litbangrap IPTEK 2005-2025 Bidang Teknologi Energi, Edisi Revisi 2010, November 2010

3

En

erg

y C

ha

inE

ne

rgy

Ch

ain

4

Introduction: RE Projects & Business OpportunitiesIntroduction: RE Projects & Business Opportunities

• Current issue: – National Energy Security: Fossil Oil substitution, electricity (accelerated)

development, environmentally benign, economically feasible (competitive ?),

etc...

� : Energy alternative ~ New & Renewable Energy Sources (NRE) and Energy

Conservation

National Electricity ConditionNational Electricity Condition

• 12 interconnected system, 70 isolated system• Installed capacity 26 GW, peak load 22 GW• Electrification ratio of 65%• Demand growth rate of 9.17%

• 240 million population• 39 million connected customers• Fuel mix 43% coal, 25% gas, 20% fuel-

oil, 6% hydro, 6% geothermal

IB : 10,2%

21 TWh

54 TWh

IT : 10,6%

11 TWh28 TWh

JB : 8,97%

115 TWh

252 TWh

Projection on ConsumptionProjection on ConsumptionProjection on ConsumptionProjection on Consumption: : : : 2010201020102010----2019201920192019Average Growth: 9,2 % per annum

Projection on ConsumptionProjection on ConsumptionProjection on ConsumptionProjection on Consumption: : : : 2010201020102010----2019201920192019Average Growth: 9,2 % per annum

20192010

22/12/2009Footer 7

Samantha ölz & and Milou BeerepootDeploying Renewables in Southeast Asia - Trends and potentials, IEA 2010

Vision & Policy: Vision & Policy: New Energy Policy (2006)New Energy Policy (2006)

ENERGY MIX 2005 (1 billion BOE)

Targeted National Energy Mix + Energy Elasticity <1 in 2025 (Conservation scenario:

3 bBOE Instead of 5+ billion BOE by BAU scenario) (Presidential Decree No. 5/2006)

-

1,000.0

2,000.0

3,000.0

4,000.0

5,000.0

6,000.0

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

Juta

SB

M

Skenario Tanpa Konservasi Skenario RIKEN

BAU

Conservation Scenario

22/12/2009Footer 9Source: Luluk Sumiarso, 2010 and 2011

Target for EC:

decrease

consumption

of 1448 BoE of

BAU, Target

for NRE 713

BoE

Target for EC:

decrease

consumption

of 1448 BoE of

BAU, Target

for NRE 713

BoE

Vision & Policy: Vision & Policy: New Energy Policy (2006)New Energy Policy (2006) ......

10

Alternative Energy Technologies Alternative Energy Technologies

ActivitiesActivities

• BPPT (Agency for the Assessment & Application of Technology): – Since early 1980’s BPPT has been active in the R&D&D e.g. Piloting and

prototyping many NRE technologies, e.g.: Photovoltaic, Solar Thermal,

Biofuel (Bio-ethanol), Biogas, Biomass (Wood/ Biomass Gasification),

Microhydro, Geothermal, Wind Energy, Ocean Energy (OTEC) � rural

area, not sustain. R&D also incl. Coal Liquefaction, Gasification,

Upgrading, Fuel Cell/Bio Hydrogen, Energy Efficiency, Gas Microturbine

Cogeneration, etc.

• Main Objective:– the availability of such an appropriate energy technologies, based on

the consideration of the local condition of resources and productive activities � innovation

11

NNational ational IInnovation Systemnnovation System : A PERSPECTIVE: A PERSPECTIVE

�The views change : from “linear-sequential” perspectives (of

“technology push” and “demand pull” models) � a system

perspective/approach of a dynamic and interactive-recursive model.

�Among some recent important trends, more attentions have been

given on:

� Interactions and roles of actors (e.g., the triple helix model);

� Local/regional dimensions, where social learning and social capital, and

other local specificities play as more and more determining factors (e.g.,

regional/local innovation systems and industrial clusters).

�Among policy implications, a more balanced attention on national and

regional contexts/dimensions of the innovation policy has been

increasingly acknowledged.

12

Source : Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff (2000).

Government Industry

Academia

TriTri--literal networkliteral network and and Hybrid OrganizationHybrid Organization

Linkages/interactionsamongst institutions in

the “sphere” as “dynamic and endless transitional processes”

THE TRIPLE HELIX MODEL

13

AN INNOVATION POLICY FRAMEWORK AN INNOVATION POLICY FRAMEWORK

R&D Policy Innovation Policy Regional Policy

Education Policy� Knowledge and Skills� Creativity� Professionalism� Entrepreneurship

Industrial Policy� Investment� Taxation - Subsidy � Incentives� Sectoral regulations

Macroeconomic Policy� Monetary� Fiscal� Trade

Industrial Progress and Development: Competitivenes s, Innovative Capacity, Rate of Diffusion, Learning,

Entrepreneurial Performance

Industrial Progress and Development: Competitivenes s, Innovative Capacity, Rate of Diffusion, Learning,

Entrepreneurial Performance

Improvement of Existing

Businesses

Investment Development

Development of New Firms (NTBFs)

Science Policy Technology Policy

Example of main focus of the policies

Klaster KMJ-48

Generator: PT PINDAD

Turbin: PT. NTP

Example: R&D&D Small Scale Geothermal Power Plant Technology

Geothermal Field: PT Pertamina

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2010: Indonesia Energy Outlook 2010: Energy Demand Model AssumptionsEnergy Demand Model Assumptions

• Energy Demand drivers: growth of GDP, Population and WorldCrude Oil Price;

• Base year of analysis: 2007, Analysis Periode : 2008 - 2030;

• GDP Growth Scenario: Low (R) 5.5% and High (T) 7% per-annum

• Oil Price : 60 USD/barel and 90 USD/barel;

• Base Case / Referensi: GDP Growth 5,5% and Oil Price 60 USD/barel (R60)

• Average Growth of Population: 1.36% per annum (2030 : 307 mio);

• Sectors: Industry, Transportation, Households, Commercial & Others;

• Efficiency & Conservation assumptions: Agricultures 0-10%, Commercial 10-20%, Industry 10-15%, Households 10-20%, Transportation 10-15%

• Kerosene to LPG conversion programs.

• Electrification Ratio 100% in 2020;

• Demand as a function of Crude Oil Price, energy elasticity coefficient of energy demand toward pricebased on the study : “Forecasting Energy Demand in the Developing World” oleh Carol A. Dahl dan Lisa McDonald (2000)

The assumptions of Energy Supply is geven in Appendix

ENERGY DEMAND by SectorENERGY DEMAND by Sector ((Base CaseBase Case))

• 2009-2030: Energy demand is expected to double (growth 3.6%/year), from 1,050 million in 2009 to 2,204 million BOE in 2030.

Total Energy Demand by Type of Energy SourceTotal Energy Demand by Type of Energy Source((Base Case)Base Case)

• The use of coal continues to increase and dominantly for industrial sector.

Transportation sector mostly use of oil fuels, Commercial sector mostly use electrical

energy. On the other hand, the household sector will largely use biomass energy, which

is in this case a non-commercial fuel. Biofuel share very small

Forecast Energy SupplyForecast Energy Supply ((Base CaseBase Case))

Coal dominant. Its utilization for domestic purposes will increase rapidly almost 5-

fold from 75 million tons in 2008 to 370 million tons in 2030. The New and

renewable energy (NRE) can be expected to have a share up to 11% of the total

energy supply in 2030. Rising of oil prices will increase the chances of NRE to

compete with fossil energy.

NRE ContributionNRE Contribution ((Kasus DasarKasus Dasar))

NRE utilization is estimated to grow at an average rate of 3,9% per annum with a share of approx 20% during 2010 – 2030 period. Bioma ssa the biggest contributor around 51% of total NRE in 2030.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2007 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Mill

ion

BO

E

Biofuel Wind Biomass Hydro Solar Nuclear Geothermal

NATIONAL ENERGY BALANCE(Base Case: GDP growth 2007-2009 5.5%/annum dan Cru de Oil Price 60

USD/barrel)

Net energy import is estimated to occur in 2028. Contribution of NRE is approximately 20% of total energy supply in 2030 .

Electricity Utilization Electricity Utilization

� Electricity consumption is projected to increase up to 5 times from 2030 when compared to that of 2007 level;

� By 2030, required additional capacity around 120 GW;� Electricity power generation will be dominated by coal power plant. Total CO2

emissions for the base case in 2030 are estimated to reach 1.2 billion tons. Increasing coal power plant efficiency will reduce coal consumption;

INVESTMENT FOR POWER PLANTSINVESTMENT FOR POWER PLANTS ((BILLIONSBILLIONS US$)US$)

20082008--20302030

0

40

80

120

160

R60 R90 T60 T90 Nuklir

Mila

yar

US

$

PLTA PUMP STORAGE PLTD PLTG M/G

PLTM PLTP PLTU BATUBARA PLTU M/G

PLTGU PLTBayu PLTSa PLTN

23

�� Decentralized Alternative Energy SystemsDecentralized Alternative Energy Systems

– Focus on pilot projects and demonstration exercises over a broad spectrum of technologies

– Narrowed to fewer technologies according to the level of experience gained, and broader programs encompassing several projects in a number of locations have been developed and implemented

– Lack of technology proveness and high capital costs are remain cited as the principal factors inhibiting decentralized RES from featuring more prominently in rural energy plans. However, Social & cultural aspect also critical factor.

Some Remarks of Pilot Projects and Demo Some Remarks of Pilot Projects and Demo

Plant of Renewable Energy SystemsPlant of Renewable Energy Systems

24

�� Cost ReductionCost Reduction

– Significant cost reductions are conditional upon the market for a technology expanding rapidly enough to induce economies of manufacturing scale and close competition among the technology suppliers

– Large markets are possible only when technology costs fall below the income threshold beyond which affordability becomes widespread.

� R&D: To set standards of minimum energy required to sustain basic human comforts and living standards.

Conclusions & Recomendations: …….c

25

�� Cooperation to develop Alternative or NRE energy Cooperation to develop Alternative or NRE energy

industries and infrastructure. industries and infrastructure. – There is already a firm commitment from the government to give a

more important role to the renewable energy in the future energy mix

of Indonesia.

– Involvement of the potential energy user, investor or producer on such

efforts are urgently required.

– Assistance to grassroots level of capacity building and community empowerment by utilizing renewable energy projects; may guarantee sustainability of a renewable energy program.

– A synergetic cooperation among government, university/Academic and manufacturing industries cooperation (manufacture locally the required components of various energy conversion devices) in the Innovation system can accelerate the technology dissemination.

Conclusions & Recomendations: Conclusions & Recomendations: ………….d.d

26

AppendixAppendix

Footer 2722/12/2009

ReferencesReferences

1. Lewis, Nathan S., Powering The Planet, Keynote Speech at 1st Annual California Clean

Innovation Conference, Caltech, California, 2007

2. Anonymous, Renewables 2010 – Global Status Report, REN21, Paris, 2010

3. Sumiarso, Luluk, KEBIJAKAN ENERGI BARU DAN ENERGI TERBARUKAN, disampaikan

pada “Sarasehan Energi Baru Terbarukan untuk Mewujudkan Visi Energi 25/25”,

Jakarta- 2 November 2010, Ditjen EBTKE, Jakarta, 2010

4. Iskandar, Marzan A., SISTEM INOVASI NASIONAL UNTUK MENDUKUNG VISI EBT 25/25,

disampaikan pada “Sarasehan Energi Baru Terbarukan untuk Mewujudkan Visi Energi

25/25”, Jakarta- 2 November 2010, Ditjen EBTKE, Jakarta, 2010

5. Oktaufik, M.A.M., Teknologi Energi Baru & Terbarukan Untuk Energi Bersih & Ketahanan

Energi,disampaikan dalam Konsinyering Wantanas, 12-13 Agustus 2009, Jakarta, 2009

6. Permana, Adhi Dharma, et.al.: Outlook energi Indonesia 2010 : teknologi untuk mendukung keandalan pasokan energi listrik, PTPSE, BPPT, Jakarta 2010

7. Anonymous, Rencana Usaha Penyediaan Tenaga Listrik PT PLN (Persero) 2010-2019, PT PLN, Jakarta, 2010.

8. Oktaufik, M.A.M., Pengembangan Energi Alternatif, Sosialisasi Penghematan Energi,

Forum Komunikasi Masyarakat Hemat Energi (FKMHE) – Pemda Prop. Kepulauan Riau, 10-November 2007, Batam, 2007

28

Some Notes on Energy Supply and Final Energy Some Notes on Energy Supply and Final Energy ConsumptionConsumption

� Energy supply is dominated by crude oil sources wit h average growth (2000-2009) 1.5%/annum. Crude oil share in 2009 reached 39% from total ener gy supply;

� Other commercial energy sources also increase ; ave rage growth Coal and Natural Gas supplies: 10.5% and 3.3% per annum, respectively;

� Average growth of NRE supply (geothermal, hydro, an d others) is only 0.7% per annum, wheregeothermal being the highest average growth of 5.1% per annum.

� Annual growth of Final energy consumption (FEC) durin g the same period averagely : 2.2%, increased 122% from 2000 level;

� The household sector energy consumption increases o nly 1.7% per annum but it is the most energy consuming sector with a share up to 35% fro m total FEC;

� Energy consumption of the industrial sector has a s hare up to 33% (2009) and average growth of 1.8% per annum;

� The transportation sector which mostly consumes oil fuel from crude oil has the largest average growth (5.6%) followed by the commercial sector (44 % per annum). The lack of policy implementation in favor of mass transportation may contribute to such growth;

� Meanwhile, the commercial sector has growth up to 4 .4% per annum and other sectors tend to decline at a rate of 1.2 % per annum.

8

30

HYBRID PVHYBRID PV--WINDWIND-- (Bio)DIESEL(Bio)DIESEL

STEREO

LAMPU

POMPA

TV

RADIO

LAMPU

KULKAS

31

.PALANGKARAYA

BANJARMASIN

Pulangpisau

Kuala KapuasPangkoh Area

Tjilik Riwut Airport

Syamsuddin Noor Airport

River Port Pelindo III

Biorefinery for Thin Peat Area

Biomass

Heat generation

TAPIOCA

ETHANOL

MEAT.MILKCOWS

BIOOIL

BIOGAS

Wastewater

Solid waste

Dung

Genset dual-fuelbiooil-biogas

Organic fertilizer

Various plantations

1987 20041995 2002 2006

Alternative (Coal) Energy Activities

Briquetting (Formulation,

Production & Utilization)

Conversion

R&D BOILER

Fuel Treatment & Characterization

R&D Pollution Control

2000

Boiler Multifuel

Small Coal Mine Mouth

Power Plant

Coal Upgrading R & D:Coal Water Mixture, Coal

Liquefaction (BCL)

2007 2008

Coal Upgrading , Gasification,Coal Water Mixture, Coal

Liquefaction (BCL)

33

Solar Thermal energySolar Thermal energy• Some specific type of applications :

– Drinking Water pumping (Solar Thermal Pump or

STP).

– Solar sterillizer.

– Solar Oven.

– Solar Still.

– Agriculture products drying.

– Solar timber drying.

– Solar Thermal Power Plant (Conceptual Study)

IEO 2010: Energy Supply Model IEO 2010: Energy Supply Model

AssumptionsAssumptions

• Gas Balance: BPMIGAS and MIGAS data (2010-2025)

• Coal Export: Handbook ESDM (2007 – 2009), and assumed constant at 150 million ton/year for the rest of study period.

• Oil production based on Handbook ESDM (2007 – 2009), and then projected using King Hubert theory (� total national oil production in 2025: 125 million barels)

• Electricity data: Statistik PLN and RUPTL (2009 – 2018)

• Bio-fuel condition based on the Mandatory Biofuel 2007 –2025 (Permen No.32/2008)

• The Energy Supply optimized using Markal Model.