mali echo 2014 activitiesemergency response coordination...
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Mali ECHO 2014 activitiesEmergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – DG ECHO Daily map | 10/11/2017
European Migrant Crisis| Central Mediterranean Routes - Correlation with weather conditions
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114 112Arrivals
2 655Deaths
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AIR TEMPERATURE (T2m) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (POSITIVE CORRELATION) SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (SWH) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (NEGATIVE CORRELATION)
© European Union, 2017. Map producedby JRC-EC/DG ECHO. The boundariesand the names shown on this map donot imply official endorsement oracceptance by the European Union.
Arrivals (Italian Ministry of Interior) Monthly avarage temperature (ECMWF) Arrivals (Italian Ministry of Interior) Monthly avarage Significant Wave Height (ECMWF)
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Monthly meanair temperature(2009- 2017)Source: ECMWF
NUMBER OF ARRIVALS (2015-2017) – Source: Italian Ministry of Interior
INFORMATION ON GRAPHS
AIR TEMPERATURE (T2m) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (POSITIVE CORRELATION*)Joint graph of Monthly Arrivals of Refugees in Italy and Monthly Mean AirTemperature (T2m)** over a reference (inland) point of North Africa.SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT (SWH) AND MONTHLY ARRIVALS (NEGATIVE
CORRELATION*)Joint graph of Monthly Arrivals of Refugees in Italy and Monthly Mean SignificantWave Height (SWH)** over a reference offshore point across the CentralMediterranean Route
*A positive correlation between T2m and Arrivals means that there is a direct relationship - when T2mincreases the Number of Arrivals also increases, whereas a negative correlation between SWH andArrivals means that there is an inverse relationship - when SWH increases, the number of Arrivalsdecreases.**T2m: Air Temperature at 2-meter (height above surface). Monthly Mean T2m values have estimated byaveraging Daily Mean values taken from ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis. SWH: Significant Wave Height thatis defined as the mean wave height (though to crest) of the highest third of the waves. Monthly Mean valuesof SWH have estimated by averaging Daily Mean values from ECMWF ERA-Interim Reanalysis.
A significant positive correlation (+0.85) exists between Monthly Arrivals andMonthly Mean Air Temperature, whereas a negative one (-0.84 ) existsbetween Monthly Arrivals and Monthly Mean Significant Wave Height.
July 2015-February 2016: Peak of arrivals (929 680) in Europe (mainly inGreece) from the Eastern Route (Source: FRONTEX).
February-July 2017: ongoing agreement between Italian Government andUN recognized Lybian Government – arrivals decrease (with emphasisfrom July 2017) resulting in lessening of correlation with weatherconditions.
SIGNIFICANT REFERENCE DATES
Major maritimeroute
Monthly Mean Air Temperatureat reference point (inland)
Monthly Mean Significant Wave Heightat reference point (offshore)
Hotspot Coastal Hub
Major Hub Minor Hub
Schengen Boundary
EU Member State
Arrivals 1 Jan - 10 Nov 2017 (UNHCR)
Deaths and missing at sea 1 Jan - 09 Oct 2017 (UNHCR)
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Migration route
Migration Flow
Lampedusa
Pozzallo
Trapani
Taranto
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°C)
*KOSOVO
*This designation is without prejudice to positions on status, and is in line with UNSCR 1244/1999 and the ICJ Opinion on the Kosovo Declaration of Independence.