malé declaration iias integrated information and assessment system training session, january 2008...
TRANSCRIPT
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Malé Declaration IIAS
Integrated Information and Assessment System
Training Session, January 2008
Pwint: programming the system
Johan Kuylenstierna: structure of the system/ impacts
Magnuz Engardt: atmospheric transport modelling
Harry Vallack: emission and scenario spreadsheets
Lars Strupeit/Philip Peck/ Ram Shrestha: scenarios and policy options
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Malé Declaration IIAS
Integrated Information and Assessment System
Aims of the IIAS
- A way to integrate the different Malé Declaration activities manuals and data and provide additional information
- A tool to investigate the linkages between emissions, concentrations and deposition of major pollutants and compare to monitoring values
- A tool to look at the risks of impacts of the regional-scale air pollution to different receptors (crops, people etc.)
- A tool to investigate the implications of scenarios including different policy interventions
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Emission inventory
Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric
transport
Pollutant deposition or concentration
MonitoringImpacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems
Driving
forcesand
scenarios
Policies for pollutant
prevention and control
Scientific knowledge to underpin the policy process
INTEGRATED INFORMATION
AND ASSESSMENT
SYSTEM
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EDGAR emissions of sulphur in S Asia
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Emission Regions in IIAS
Emission region IAM
code Emission region name Provinces or states included within the emission region
BDAA Bangladesh Whole country
BTAA Bhutan Whole country
INCC India Central Madhya Pradesh + Chhattisgarh
INEC East-Central Bihar + Jharkhand
INEE India EastAssam – NE Highlands (Arunchal Pradesh; Manipur; Meghalaya; Mizoram; Nagaland; Sikkim; Tripura)
INNC India North-Central Uttar Pradesh + Uttaranchal
INNN India NorthChandigarh - Punjab; Himachal Pradesh -Jammu and Kashmir; Haryana; Delhi
INSC India South-Central Andra Pradesh; Karnataka - Goa
INSE India South-East West Bengal + Calcutta; Orissa ; Andaman and Nicobar islands
INSS India South Kerala - Lakshadweep; Tamil Nadu - Pondicherry
INSW India South-West Maharashtra; Dadar and Nagar Haveli -Daman and Diu + Bombay
INWC India West-Central Gujarat; Rajasthan
IREE Iran East
East Azarbayejan; West Azarbayejan; Ardebil; Ilam; Tehran; Chaharmahal & Bakhtiyari; Khuzestan; Zanjan; Qazvin; Qom; Kordestan; Kermanshah; Kohgiluyeh & Boyerahmad; Gilan; Lorestan; Mazandaran; Markazi; Hamadan
IRWW Iran West Esfahan; Bushehr; Semnan; Sistan & Baluchestan; Khorasan; Fars; Kerman; Golestan; Hormozgan; Yazd
MVAA Maldives Whole country
NPAA Nepal Whole country
PKEE Pakistan East Northwest Frontier Provinces - FATA -Islamabad; Punjab (incl. Lahore)
PKWW Pakistan West Sindh (incl. Karachi); Baluchistan
LKAA Sri Lanka Whole country
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Emission inventory
Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric
transport
Pollutant deposition or concentration
MonitoringImpacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems
Driving
forcesand
scenarios
Policies for pollutant
prevention and control
Scientific knowledge to underpin the policy process
INTEGRATED INFORMATION
AND ASSESSMENT
SYSTEM
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MATCH model run for emission region ‘India south-central’ (Andhra Pradesh + Karnataka + Goa)
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Deposition of sulphur in S Asia using the MATCH model
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Acidic deposition in South Asia during using the MATCH model
Sulphur Oxidized Nitrogen Ammonium
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Location of Malé Declaration Monitoring Sites
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Sulphur Dioxide Concentrations (results from using EDGAR 1995 emissions in MATCH model using 2000 weather data)
μg m-3
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Location of Malé Declaration Monitoring Sites
Comparison of modelled and monitor values for the concentration of SO2 at Dutuwewa
0
0.5
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Mic
rog
ram
per
cu
bic
met
er
Modelled values Monitor values
Comparison of modelled and monitor values for the concentration of NO2 at Dutuwewa
0
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Months
Mic
rog
ram
per
cu
bic
m
eter
Modelled values Monitor values
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Emission inventory
Pollutant Emissions Atmospheric
transport
Pollutant deposition or concentration
MonitoringImpacts on health, crops, materials and ecosystems
Driving
forcesand
scenarios
Policies for pollutant
prevention and control
Scientific knowledge to underpin the policy process
INTEGRATED INFORMATION
AND ASSESSMENT
SYSTEM
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ACIDIFICATION RISKS FROM S
AND N DEPOSITION
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Transboundary impacts of air pollution
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Salmon decline in the acidified waters of southern Norway
The pH of lake Gårdsjön, SW Sweden
Effects of ‘Acid Rain’ in Europe
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The sensitivity of aquatic organisms to a lowered
pH in freshwater
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85% of all acidified lakes in six countries: Sweden, Norway, Scotland, Finland, Canada, U.S.A.,
Lake acidification
In Europe, about 50 000 – 100 000 lakes have been affected by acidification
This occurred in acid-sensitive regions where the soils have a low ability to neutralize continuous inputs of strong acids
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Various factors contributing to forest decline
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EDGAR emissions by region
MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI)
Ecosystem sensitivity (SEI)
Risk areas
S, N Deposition (by grid)
PHASE I: determining risk from available maps
Base Cation Deposition (by grid)
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Estimating the Risk of acidificationNeutralising Base Cation Deposition from Soil Dust
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Terrestrial Ecosystem Sensitivity to Acidic Deposition in South Asia
Source: Kuylenstierna et al. 2001
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Estimated Risk of acidification
=SOx(dep)+0.3NOx(dep)+0.3NHx(dep) - Base Cation(dep) – Critical Load(soil)
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ACIDIFICATION RISK SCENARIOS
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EDGAR emissions by region
Region Emission %change New emission
Country 1 x +20 1.2x
Country 2 y +30 1.3y
……………….
MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI)
Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)
Ecosystem sensitivity (SEI)
Risk areas
New Deposition
S, N Deposition (by grid)
PHASE I: Investigating simple scenarios
Simple Scenario
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Workbook – Scenario of 25%
increase in S emissions in all
regions
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Estimated Risk of acidification
25% increase in S emissions
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Emission workbook
Emission Manual
Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)
Risk areas
Emission inventory
Emissions by 1ox1o grid
New Deposition
Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)
S, N Deposition (by grid)
MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.)
Using national Emission estimates
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Malé Emissions baseline summary sheet
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Emission scenario
workbook
Emission Manual
Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)
Risk areas
Emission inventory
Prevention Controloptions options
Policy instruments
Energy, transport and industryscenarios
Emissions by 1ox1o grid
New Deposition
Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)
S, N Deposition (by grid)
MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.)
PHASE II: Investigating national scenarios
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Malé Scenario input sheet
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Emission workbook
Emission Manual
Ecosystem sensitivity (nat.)
Acidification
Risk areas
Simple Scenario
Emission inventory
Prevention Controloptions options
Policy instruments
Energy, transport and industryscenarios
Emissions by 1ox1o grid
New Deposition
Transfer coefficient (region-to-grid)
S, N Deposition (by grid)
MATCH atmospheric transport model (at SMHI/ UNEP etc.)
Health impacts
Ozone PM2.5
Crop yield losses
PHASE III: Other pollutants and impacts
Eutrophication
Risk areas
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HEALTH RISKS FROM
PARTICULATE MATTER
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Composition of PM
PM is mainly:
i. inorganic ions:
SO42-, NO3
-, NH4+,
Cl- , Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+
ii. organic and elemental carbon
iii. soil particles
iv. particle-bound water
v. heavy metals
Coarse fraction (PM10-PM2.5) contains the crustal materials and fugitive dust from industry and roads.
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Composition of PM
Source: Judith Chow, Desert Research Institute, USA, redrawn from Guttikunda et al (in press)
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Composition of PM
Source: Joint WHO / Convention Task Forceon the Health Aspects of Air Pollution, WHO, 2006
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Atmospheric Transport of PM
PM10-PM2.5 – generally deposited within 10km of emission
PM10-PM2.5 – sometimes uplifted by storms and travels >1000km
PM1-PM0.1 can travel 1000s of kilometres
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Atmospheric Transport of PM
Contribution to PM2.5 Concentrations over Norway in 2010
Source: Joint WHO / Convention Task Forceon the Health Aspects of Air Pollution, WHO, 2006
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Long range transport of PM in Asia
PM2.5
Long Range Trans45%
Local Burning28%
Soil Dust4%
Transport5%Secondary
10%
Marine8%
PM10
Long Range Trans2%
Local Burning26%
Marine22%
Secondary11%
Transport7%
Soil Dust32%
Source Apportionment Results for Hanoi, Vietnam
Source: As shown in Guttikunda et al (in press)
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Particle Size (mm)
9.2 to 30
5.5 to 9.2
3.3 to 5.5
2.0 to 3.3
1.0 to 2.0
0.1 to 1.0
Effect
Visible Pollution
Lodges in nose/throat
Main breathing passages
Small breathing passages
Bronchi
Air sacs
Impacts of Air Pollution
São Paulo – 15 September 2004
São Paulo – 06 September 2004
(μm)
Source: Guttikunda et al (in press)
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Dose-response relationship for PM10 and health impacts
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Dose-Response Functions1 of PM10 and Human Health
Health Impact Dose Response Function
Effects/Capita/g/m3 Premature Mortality 0.000014 Adult Chronic Bronchitis 0.00004026 Respiratory Hospital Admission 0.0000057 Cardiac Hospital Admission 0.000005 Emergency Room Visit 0.00024 Child Acute Bronchitis 0.000544 Asthma Symptom Day 0.0029 Restricted Activity Day 0.03828 Acute Respiratory Symptom Day 0.30172
Source: Lvovsky, 2001
1 Dose-response functions measure the relationship between exposure to pollution as a cause and specific outcomes as an effect. They refer to damages/production losses incurred in a year, regardless of when the pollution occurs, per unit change in pollution levels. In this table, the function is defined as number of effects per year incurred per unit change in concentrations (g/m3) per capita.
Impacts of PM on Health
São Paulo – 15 September 2004
São Paulo – 06 September 2004
as shown in Guttikunda et al (in press)
In this table, the function is defined as number of effects per year incurred per unit change in concentrations (μg/m3) per capita.
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Health Dose-response relationships for the IIAS
Relative risk of cardiopulmonary mortality from PM2.5
In IIAS we use WHO study in Europe method = 6% increase in total mortality per 10 μg m-3 increase in PM2.5
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
PM2.5 (ug/m3)
Re
lati
ve
Ris
k
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Per cent increase in total mortality from PM2.5 (inorganic fraction only)
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EUTROPHICATION OF ECOSYSTEMS BY N DEPOSITION
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+ +
=
Eutrophication by N: causes and consequences
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European Response: Critical Loads and Nitrogen Saturation
UN/ECE CLRTAP: Critical loads to avoid N saturation or avoid diversity change based on
empirical studies
European Critical Loads Based Upon Empirical Observations
Vegetation Type Kg N ha-1
Raised and blanket bogs 5-10
Forest ground vegetation 10-15
Dry heaths 10-20
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Regions of High Biodiversity Importance (highlighted) and Modelled Global Nitrogen
Deposition (colours)
Biodiversity hotspots: Myers et al, 2003
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Risk of Eutrophication of Terrestrial Vegetation in IIAS
Showing areas with total NOx + NHx deposition greater than10 g N ha-1 yr-1 (71 meq m-2.yr-1)
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CROP YIELD LOSSES DUE TO
OZONE
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Invisible Injury: as shown by filtration experiments
O3 injury to wheat whole plant growth, Pakistan(courtesy of A. Wahid)
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Open Top Chamber Facilities. Lahore, Pakistan
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Risk of Yield Loss in Spring Wheat caused by Ozone
Dose-response relationship from Europe
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Risk of Yield Loss in Spring Wheat caused by Ozone
AOT40 Calculations for (from MATCH model - Magnuz)