malaysian airline system provisions spoilt the smooth landing

8/12/2019 Malaysian Airline System Provisions spoilt the smooth landing

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KimEngHongKong isa subsidiary ofMalayanBankingBerhad

SEE APPENDIX 2 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS

MalaysiaResults Review 1 March 2012

PP16832/01/2012 (029059)

Malaysian Airline SystemProvisions spoilt the smooth landing

Provisions, impairment and one-off charges.The 2011 reported net

loss of RM2,521m was the biggest in MAS history. However, stripping

out RM1,258m for provisions, impairment and stock obsolescence, the

core net loss was RM1,263m (+301% YoY). This was 4% better than

our full-year forecast and 4% lower than consensus. We maintain our

Hold call with a target price of RM1.55, pegged to 6.0x 2012 adjusted

EV/EBITDARon par with Asia Pacific airline peers.

Respectable 4Q11 given the landscape. MAS 4Q11 core net loss ofRM231m (from a profit of RM61m YoY) was better than our initial

expectations of a RM276m loss. This was after filtering out a total of

RM1,095m in non-cash items incurred during the period for provisions

for aircraft redelivery (RM602m), impairment markdown for freighters

(RM314m) and stock obsolescence (RM179m) of aircraft spare parts.

We were surprised by the quantum of these markdowns, but such

exercises are common in any business turnaround programme.

Tough short-term outlook. The outlook for 1Q12 is exceptionally

challenging due to high fuel prices and a weak yield environment. We

think MAS will continue to record losses in 1Q12 but the quantum

should be lower due to the stoppage of loss-making routes since Feb2012. Furthermore, the sale of 34 old aircraft and induction of 23 new

aircraft in 2012 will reduce unit costs and enhance product offerings. It

will be a year of two halves whereby 2H will be much better than 1H.

Cash is running thin. With an expected RM6.0b gross capex in 2012,

we think the current cash balance of RM1b is insufficient. Management

states that they are looking at various means to spur liquidity (raising

more debt, disposal of non-core assets, selling stakes in subsidiaries)

and raising new equity is last on their priority list. Nonetheless, we rate

the probability of an equity call at 70% under the current outlook.

Earnings forecasts lowered. We think 2012 will barely breakeven and

we lower our 2012 core net profit forecast to RM5m from RM78m. Wealso adjust down 2013-14 earnings by -10.3% and -3.1% respectively.

Our Hold call and target price remain unchanged.

Malaysian Airline SystemSummary Earnings TableFYE Dec (RM m) 2010A 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014FRevenue 12,978.4 13,653.9 13,488.3 14,208.8 14,342.0

EBITDAR 1,812.5 243.3 2,377.1 3,236.9 3,412.3

Recurring Net Profit (314.7) (1,263.2) 4.5 802.7 954.9

Recur Basic EPS (Sen) (9.4) (37.8) 0.1 24.0 28.6

EPS growth (%) n/a n/a n/a nm 19.0

PER n/a n/a 1,061.6 6.0 5.0

EV/EBITDAR (x) 8.1 41.5 5.8 5.1 5.2

P/BV(x) 1.4 4.5 4.5 2.6 1.7

Net Gearing (%) 0.4 4.3 5.4 2.6 1.2ROE (%) (25.8) (131.6) 0.4 43.1 33.9

ROA (%) (7.3) (11.1) 0.0 6.0 6.6

Earnings revision (%) n.a n.a (94.3) (10.3) (3.1)

Consensus net profit (RM m) n.a (1,214) (215.0) 236.7 573.0

Source: Maybank IB

Hold(unchanged)Share price: RM1.43Target price: RM1.55 (unchanged)

Wong Chew Hann, [email protected](603) 2297 8686

Chai Li Shin

[email protected](603) 2297 8684

Stock Information

Description: National airline flying to over 100 destinationsin six continents.

Ticker: MAS MKShares Issued (m): 3,342.2Market Cap (RM m): 4,779.33-mth Avg Daily Volume (m): 2.79KLCI: 1,569.65Free float (%): 21.4

Major Shareholders: %Khazanah 48.9Tune Air Sdn Bhd 20.5EPF 9.2

Historical Chart

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

Mar-10 Jul-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-11 Nov-11

MAS MK Equity

Performance:

52-week High/Low RM1.95/RM1.23

1-mth 3-mth 6-mth 1-yr YTD

Absolute (%) (15.4) (3.4) (21.4) (23.1) 10.0

Relative (%) (19.1) (9.3) (23.7) (27.6) 7.5


2/71 March 2012 Page 2 of 7

Malaysian Airline System

4Q11 Earnings Summary

FY 31 Dec (RM m) 4Q11 4Q10 YoY 3Q11 QoQ 2011 2010 YoY

Revenue 3,611.6 3,588.4 0.6% 3,492.9 3.4% 13,675.0 12,976.8 5.4%

EBITDAR (229.6) 610.5 (137.6%) 336.7 (168.2%) 382.2 1,812.5 (78.9%)Operating profit/(loss) (1,320.6) 115.5 (1,243.7%

(156.3) 744.8% (2,156.8) 242.0 (991.2%)

Reported net income (1,276.9) 223.0 (672.5%) (477.0) 167.7% (2,521.3) 299.5 (941.8%)

Non cash (gains) / losses 1,045.6 (162.2) (744.5%) 265.3 294.2% 1,258.1 (552.0) (327.9%)

Core net income (231.3) 60.8 -480.4% (211.8) 9.2% (1,263.2) (252.5) 400.3%

EBITDAR margin (%) (6.4) 17.0 (23.4ppt) 9.6 (16.0ppt) 2.8 14.0 (11.2ppt)

Reported net income margin (%) (35.4) 6.2 (41.6ppt) (13.7) (21.7ppt) (18.4) 2.3 (20.7ppt)

Core net income margin (%) (6.4) 1.7 (8.1ppt) (6.1) (0.3ppt) (9.2) (1.9) (7.3ppt)

Passenger business:

Passenger carried (000) 3,265 3,443 (5.2%) 3,346 (2.4%) 13,301 13,112 1.4%

ASK (m) 13,101.6 13,005.3 0.7% 13,407.0 (2.3%) 52,998 49,623 6.8%

RPK (m) 9,491.9 10,060.0 (5.6%) 10,179.0 (6.8%) 39,731 37,838 5.0%

Load factor (%) 72.4 77.4 (4.9ppt) 75.9 (3.5ppt) 75.0% 76.3% (1.3ppt)

Yields @ Revenue/RPK (sen) 28.6 27.6 3.8% 25.5 10.5% 25.1 24.7 1.8%

RASK (sen) 21.7 21.4 1.6% 19.4 5.2% 18.8 18.8 (0.1%)

Sources: Company, Maybank IB

Satisfactory top-line management. Overall, 4Q11 revenue rose 0.6%

YoY, driven by a combination of 3.8% higher yields which offset 5.2%

lower passenger volumes. MAS yield growth was respectable by

industry standards, as most airlines struggled to keep yields flat. This is

an indicator of the weak underlying demand for air travel.

Capacity management is key. It was a challenging quarter for theindustry and load factors were depressed industry-wide. MAS saw its

4Q11 passenger load factor decline by 4.9ppts YoY and the outlook is

negative. Fortunately, the management has taken the right decision to

scrap 9% of capacity to several loss-making routes from Feb 2012, and

there are further cuts being planned. This should support better load

factors going forward, a key element to ensure high yields and low unit

cost.

RM1,095m adjustments explained. The root cause of the RM1,095m

in cost adjustments in 4Q11 relates to managements decision to scale

back future capacity growth plans. Note that this is not a cash item, but

rather provisions for estimated future cost expenditures. In reality, MAS

will only incur the cash cost over a staggered period of 2-4 years. Some

of these costs might be recoverable, as the provision amounts may be

overstated due to overly conservative estimates.

Redelivery cos t of RM602m. MAS has a contractual obligation to

repair and recondition leased aircraft into their original condition before

returning them to the lessor. This will require costly structural tests, D-

checks and engine overhauls. In addition, MAS also has to compensate

the lessor for the prematurely terminating the lease.

Stock obs olescence cost of RM179m. Due to the disposal and early

termination of aircraft, the spare parts are deemed no longer required

and have to be disposed of.

Impairment of freighter aircraft of RM314m. This amount relates to

the disposal of freighters and markdowns on the value of existing

freighters.



Malaysian Airline System2012 Outlook

Capacity shrinkage, focus on yields. MAS has cut 9% of its network

capacity to various non-profitable routes since Feb 2012. There are

ongoing efforts to terminate more underperforming routes by mid-2012.As shown in the table below, the Asia Pacific airlines and MAS have

experienced lower load factors since 3Q11. The industry is suffering

and MAS is making a smart decision to become smaller and nimbler, as

this is the most effective method to preserve load factors and yields.

Asia Pacific airlines load factors

70%

72%

74%

76%

78%

80%

82%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Asia Pacific MAS

Source: IATA

Fleet rejuvenation. In a refreshing outlook, MAS will rejuvenate its fleet

by removing 34 old aircraft. MAS will also take delivery of 23 new

aircraft which includes 13 Boeing 737-800s, 5 Airbus A330-300s and 5

Airbus A380s. This will greatly reduce the average fleet age from 12.2

years at the end of 2011 to 7.7 years by the end of 2012, making MAS

average fleet age roughly on par with industry leaders such as SIA (7.3

years) and Emirates (6.9 years). This should benefit MAS on both the

cost and revenue fronts.

Liquidity very tight. The capex for the 34 aircraft deliveries in 2012 is

estimated at RM6.0b. MAS cash balance of RM1.0b is insufficient to

make an outright balance sheet financing as the current target capital

ratio is 30:70 (equity:debt). Furthermore, MAS requires free cash of

RM300-400m for working capital requirements, in our opinion.

We think MAS will try to acquire aircraft via sale and leaseback (SLB)

transactions, as this is the least capital-intensive method and might

even free up some capital. A case in point is AirAsias recent SLB of 5

A320s for a disposal gain of RM200m (RM40m per aircraft for 35%

profit margin). We understand from market sources that demand for

SLB for B737-800s and A330-300s are strong, but less so for A380s.

70% probability MAS will raise new equity. Assuming all goes well

and the average fuel price does not exceed USD130/bbl, MAS does not

need to raise new equity in 2012, but the room for error is paper-thin.

We predict a 70% probability that MAS will have to raise equity in 2012due to our conviction that fuel prices will trend higher and credit

availability will become more difficult.



Malaysian Airline SystemKey takeaways from Conference Call

1. Q: Will there be more provisions going forward?

A: Yes, provisions are a normal part of leasing aircraft. However,

the amount was huge in 4Q11 due to early termination and disposal

of 34 aircraft in 2012. This is a busy year but going forward it should

revert to normal levels of RM200-300m per year.

Our opinion: This is a fair statement; the market for used aircraft

currently is very weak with depressed asset values. The huge

markdowns could continue in the current year.

2. Q: What is the minimum cash level before you have no choice

and have to raise new equity?

A: We are looking at various means to enhance the liquidity at the

moment. Among them are the possible disposal of non-core assets,

selling a minority stake of our subsidiaries to strategic investors andraising more debt outright. Raising capital via new equity is the

least preferred option.

Our opinion: We are indifferent to this view; raising equity is not a

bad idea as there is never enough cash in the airline industry. This

will be an issue that will constantly be on investors minds.

3. Q: Share with us your revenue management plans in 2012?

A: The core focus is yields, especially for the front end of the cabin.

The effort to improve customer experience should enable better

loads and yields. The new revenue management system has been

put in place and it is expected to gradually bring a tangible

performance increase. MAS has recently enhanced its distribution

channels and will try to steer sales to its own distribution channel.

Our opinion: This is the critical department that will steer MAS away

from the current crisis; we will monitor its progress diligently.

4. Q: Updates on Oneworld alliance induction

A: On track with schedule (late 2012)

Our opinion: We are glad that the management is keeping to this

plan. An alliance is the way to proceed in this day and age; not

having one will be a big handicap.

5. Q: Is the profit target last revealed in the business turnaround

plan still on track?

A: The previous profit guidance was premised on average fuel price

of USD130/bbl. The current market price for jet fuel is higher and

therefore there will be adjustments to the original guidance.

Our opinion: This is an outright direct and honest answer.



Malaysian Airline SystemINCOME STATEMENT (RM m) BALANCE SHEET (RM m)

FY Dec 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Dec 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

Revenue 13,653.9 13,488.3 14,208.8 14,342.0 Fixed Assets 9,073.9 9,606.5 9,686.9 9,389.8

EBITDAR 243.3 2,377.1 3,236.9 3,412.3 Other LT Assets 327.2 327.2 327.2 327.2

Depreciation & Amortisation (2,539.0) (2,175.2) (2,227.5) (2,241.0) Cash/ST Investments 1,115.5 240.5 1,303.8 2,685.2

Operating Profit (2,295.7) 201.9 1,009.4 1,171.3 Other Current Assets 1,974.0 1,890.4 1,991.2 2,011.4

Interest (Exp)/Inc (159.4) (167.4) (175.8) (184.6) Total Assets 12,490.6 12,064.5 13,309.1 14,413.6

Associates 10.7 11.8 13.0 14.3

Exceptional Items 1,258.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 ST Debt 1,379.4 1,379.4 1,379.4 1,379.4

Pre-Tax Profit (1,186.3) 46.4 846.6 1,001.0 Other Current Liabilities 5,754.6 5,082.8 5,353.7 5,403.8

Tax (8.4) (41.8) (43.9) (46.1) LT Debt 4,290.6 4,540.1 4,702.7 4,810.7

Minority Interest 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 Other LT Liabilities 17.8 9.4 17.8 9.4

Reported Net Profit (1,194.2) 5.0 803.2 955.4 Minority Interest 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.8

Recurring Net Profit (1,263.2) 4.5 802.7 954.9 Shareholders' Equity 1,042.5 1,047.0 1,849.7 2,804.6

Total Liabilities-Capital 12,490.6 12,064.5 13,309.1 14,413.6

Revenue Growth % 5.2% (1.2%) 5.3% 0.9%

EBITDAR Growth (%) (86.6%) 877.2% 36.2% 5.4% Share Capital (m) 407.8 412.3 1,215.0 2,169.8

EBIT Growth (%) NA NA 399.8% 16.0% Net Debt 5,670.0 5,919.5 6,082.1 6,190.1

Net Profit Growth (%) NA NA 15896.6% 19.0% Working Capital 4,554.5 5,679.0 4,778.4 3,504.9

Recurring Net Profit Growth (%) 301.4% NA 17729.2% 19.0% Gross Gearing (%) 436.9 542.4 258.3 125.0

CASH FLOW (RM m) RATES & RATIOS

FY Dec 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F FY Dec 2011A 2012F 2013F 2014F

Pre-Tax Profit (1,194.2) 5.0 803.2 955.4 EBITDAR Margin (%) 1.8 17.6 22.8 23.8Dep. & Amort. 2,539.0 2,175.2 2,227.5 2,241.0 EBIT Margin (%) (16.8) 1.5 7.1 8.2Cash tax paid (176.4) (176.4) (176.4) (176.4) Net Profit Margin (%) (8.7) 0.0 5.7 6.7Assoc. & JV Inc/(loss) (647.9) 459.1 (22.3) (2.6) ROAE (%) (52.2) 0.5 55.5 41.1Chg in Wkg.Cap. (4.2) (20.9) (22.0) (23.1) ROA (%) (9.6) 0.0 6.3 6.9Other Operating CF (1,583.5) (1,263.2) (1,297.2) (1,204.9) ROCE (%) (9.3) 0.0 5.6 6.7

Net Operating CF (1,067.3) 1,178.8 1,512.7 1,789.4 Div Payout Ratio (%) NA NA NA NACapital Exp.(net) (661.9) (1,247.8) (812.8) (540.0) Interest Cover (x) NA (1.2) (5.7) (6.3)Other Invts.(net) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Current Ratio (x) 1.09 1.12 1.07 1.00Invts in Assoc. & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Quick Ratio (x) 2.20 2.04 2.19 2.33Div from Assoc & JV 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt/Equity (X) 4.37 5.42 2.58 1.25Other Investing CF (585.9) 434.9 272.8 433.5 Debt/EBITDA (x) 23.31 2.49 1.88 1.81Net Investing CF (1,247.8) (812.8) (540.0) (106.5) Debt/Market Cap (x) 1.19 1.24 1.27 1.30Div Paid 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Chg in Gross Debt 249.6 162.6 108.0 21.3

Capital Issues 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Other Financing CF 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0

Net Financing CF 1,244.1 (1,241.0) 90.5 (301.4)

Net Cashflow (1,071.0) (875.0) 1,063.2 1,381.5

Sources: Company, Maybank-IB



Malaysian Airline SystemAPPENDIX 1

Definition of Ratings

Maybank Investment Bank Research uses the following rating system:

BUY Total return is expected to be above 15% in the next 12 months

HOLD Total return is expected to be between -15% to 15% in the next 12 months

SELL Total return is expected to be below -15% in the next 12 months

Applicability of Ratings

The respective analyst maintains a coverage universe of stocks, the list of which may be adjusted according to needs. Investment ratings are

only applicable to the stocks which form part of the coverage universe. Reports on companies which are not part of the coverage do not

carry investment ratings as we do not actively follow developments in these companies.

Some common terms abbreviated in this report (where they appear):

Adex = Advertising Expenditure FCF = Free Cashflow PE = Price Earnings

BV = Book Value FV = Fair Value PEG = PE Ratio To Growth

CAGR = Compounded Annual Growth Rate FY = Financial Year PER = PE RatioCapex = Capital Expenditure FYE = Financial Year End QoQ = Quarter-On-Quarter

CY = Calendar Year MoM = Month-On-Month ROA = Return On Asset

DCF = Discounted Cashflow NAV = Net Asset Value ROE = Return On EquityDPS = Dividend Per Share NTA = Net Tangible Asset ROSF = Return On Shareholders Funds

EBIT = Earnings Before Interest And Tax P = Price WACC = Weighted Average Cost Of Capital

EBITDA = EBIT, Depreciation And Amortisation P.A. = Per Annum YoY = Year-On-Year

EPS = Earnings Per Share PAT = Profit After Tax YTD = Year-To-Date

EV = Enterprise Value PBT = Profit Before Tax

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Malaysian Airline SystemAPPENDIX 1

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