making use of corporate foresight
TRANSCRIPT
Making Use of Corporate Foresight Lessons learnt from Industrial Practise
Djordje Pinter and Karl-Heinz Leitner
XXV ISPIM Conference,
Dublin, Ireland: 8-11 June 2014
Djordje Pinter | Research Fellow | Innovation Systems Department
Research, Technology and Innovation Policy Unit
Motivation and Research Questions
• Increasing corporate challenges due to more dynamics and complexity; e.g. the reduction of product cycles
• The need for a corporate foresight capability to manage future uncertainties is widely acknowledged.
1. Motivation
• Little knowledge is established about the effects, impacts and best practise of foresight activities (e.g. Wilkinson and Kuplers, 2013)
• Little conceptual work is published for theory building and testing of corporate foresight (e.g. Paliokaitė & Pačėsa 2014)
2. Research Gap
• What is known about the effects and impacts of foresight activities?
• Which propositions regarding corporate foresight can be developed by integrating literature from foresight methodology, change management, concept of champions, dynamic capabilities and innovation theories like disruptive technologies?
3. Research Questions
Best practises Interdependencies
• Analysing publications
with authentic
description
• 26 case studies
considered
• Emphasis on the use of
scenario planning and
development (not
solely)
FrameworksEffectsAims
Dachverbände
Propositions
Case Study Analysis
Design and Methodology
• Analysing conceptual
publications
• Fields:
• Strategic management
• Innovation
management
• Organisational
foresight and
methodology
Literature Review
Selected Cases
Corporate Foresight – Towards a Definition?
• Saying something about the future for the means of corporate decision
making (van der Heijden, 2004).
• A set of approaches for bringing longer-term considerations into corporate
decision-making (Miles et al. 2008).
• Deals with the identification of weak signals to recognize threats and
opportunities (Rohrbeck et al., 2007).
A strategic capability that refers to a function, process, method, technique or
activity within an organisational that systematically aims to support longer-
term decision making. This is by identifying, thinking and debating potential
developments of the future and creating responses to shape the future.
What are the Aims of Corporate Foresight Activities?
Clustered findings
1. Assess the future (e.g. identify changes, anticipate specific treats).
2. Systemic changes (e.g. Identify elements, forces of change).
3. Challenge existing beliefs.
4. Test and develop strategies.
5. Decision making support.
6. Foster and Develop new ideas.
7. Develop and achieve a coherent vision of the future and align thinking.
8. Individual and organisational Learning.
Organisation
Industry
Global Environment
Selected Effects and Impacts
1. Corporate foresight activities increase the ability to anticipate
changes (e.g. anticipating political, environmental and
economic results).
2. Corporate foresight activities foster new ideas and products
(e.g. Identifying new businesses opportunities/markets).
3. Corporate foresight activities can save costs.
4. Corporate foresight activities support organisational learning.
5. Corporate foresight activities support communication.
6. Corporate foresight activities enhance strategic thinking.
Developed Propositions I
Proposition 1: A linkage between the integration of foresight activities into organisational structures and strategic planning has an impact on the success of implementing strategies based on foresight activities.
Proposition 2: The effect of organisational integration of foresight processes is stronger than the effect of detail and method sophistication.
Proposition 3: Process and project management are of vital importance of the success of foresight activities.
Proposition 4: The assessment of different developments (scenarios) and generation of new ideas levels the probability to develop disruptive technologies.
Proposition 5: Organisational champions have a key role for the execution and success of corporate foresight activities.
Proposition 6: A balanced use of methods has a positive impact on the acceptance and integration of foresight results
Proposition 7: The level of elaboration is more important than the level of participation within foresight activities during an earlier foresight process stage.
Proposition 8: An explicit stage aiming to transfer and communicate the findings from foresight project is crucial for the successful adoption and communication of foresight results.
Proposition 9: Foresight activities that are able to address and process firm’s present changes and concerns as well as future developments show a higher acceptance.
Developed Propositions II
Need for an elaboration and differentiation of a corporate foresight definition against familiar fields as e.g. strategic or change management etc.
Case studies show a very broad use and purpose of foresight activities and effects from strategic to operative level including concepts as e.g. organisational learning, change management to strategic decision making.
Derived propositions capture these impacts by integrating existing literature and form groundwork for testing.
Summary
AIT Austrian Institute of Technology
Djordje Pinter
Austrian Institute of Technology
Foresight & Policy Development
Comments and contact is welcome