making sense through action by dave snowden
TRANSCRIPT
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
27 Mar 2015
Making sense through actionAgile India 2015
Wifi password. #AgileIndia2015
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 27 Mar 2015
Cynefina sense-making frameworkThere are three basic types of system: ordered, complex and chaotic
Complex systems have propensities and dispositions but no linear material cause & effect
In Cynefin order is divided into ‘obvious’ & complicated and the fifth domain) disorder
In a complex world we focus on direction & multiple parallel safe-to-fail experiments; not one fail-safe design
Management by vector .....
ComplicatedGoverning constraints sense-analyse-respond
Good Practice
ObviousRigid constraints
sense-categorise-respond Best Practice
ChaoticAbsence of constraints
act-sense-respond Novel Practice
ComplexEnabling constraints
probe-sense-respond Emergent Practice
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201
... whereas strong dynamic links among components (characterized as nodes) result in a “strong cluster”, weak links between strong clusters give rise to a community or a world. Since any node can simultaneously belong both to a strong cluster and to a larger networked community, society, or world, boundaries become diffuse, but also dynamic and creative. Complex dynamical systems thus begin to look more like bramble bushes in a thicket than like stones. And it is extremely difficult, as any outdoorsman will tell you, to determine precisely where a particular bramble bush ends and the rest of the thicket begins
Juarrero, A (2002) “Complex Dynamic Systems and the Problem of Identity” in Emergence 4(1/2) 94-104
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954
Rethinking project flow One size does not fit all
Chaos
Complex
Complicated
Obvious
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 27 Mar 2015
What about expert searchers who have spent years honing their ability to detect small abnormalities in specific types of
image? We asked 24 radiologists to perform a familiar lung nodule detection task. A gorilla, 48 times larger than the
average nodule, was inserted in the last case. 83% of radiologists did not see the gorilla. Eye-tracking t that the majority of the those who missed the gorilla looked directly at the location of the gorilla. Even
expert searchers, operating in their domain of expertise, are vulnerable to inattentional
blindness
“The invisible gorilla strikes again” Drew, Vo & Wolfe
Psychol Sci. Sep 2013; 24(9): 1848–1853
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 27 Mar 2015
Scalable ethnography using human metadata
Micro narratives or observations are the basic units of sense-making Meaning does not reside in text it is provided by human actors in context Abstraction is key to interpretation & reuse Description opens up more possibilities than evaluation More like these, fewer like those We navigate landscapes
Acting intuitively, instantly
The situation was analysed logically
People made decisions based on principles
Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 27 Mar 2015
Navigating landscapes
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Doing it Right
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Past Future
Peers
Management Self-imposed Lacking and needed
Over the top stressful
Situation relevant to… Pressure coming from… Sense of urgency is…
Creating new process
Allocating responsibility
All about sharing failure
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Copyright © 2015 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 27 Mar 2015
Understanding nuanced differences
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Freedom too far
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Self Imposed
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Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved.
Exaptation in practice
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Question investment
Question understanding
Copyright © 2013 Cognitive Edge. All Rights Reserved. US Pat. 8,031,201 01.04.1954
Scaling as granular engagementComplexity does not scale by aggregation Reduce granularity, distribute cognition; radical recombination Engage the real C level & ecosystem Learn early, fail less Continuous real time feed back systems