making sense of federal budget and tax trends: a macro-level look at what npo’s need to know

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Making Sense of Federal Budget and Tax Trends: A Macro-Level Look at What NPO’s Need to Know Prepared by OMB Watch 1742 Connecticut Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20009 (202) 234-8494 http://www.ombwatch.org

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Making Sense of Federal Budget and Tax Trends: A Macro-Level Look at What NPO’s Need to Know. Prepared by OMB Watch 1742 Connecticut Ave., NW Washington, D.C. 20009 (202) 234-8494 http://www.ombwatch.org. The Budget & Tax Picture Today. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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  • Making Sense of Federal Budget and Tax Trends:

    A Macro-Level Look at What NPOs Need to KnowPrepared byOMB Watch1742 Connecticut Ave., NWWashington, D.C. 20009(202) 234-8494http://www.ombwatch.org

  • The Budget & Tax Picture TodayWeve got plenty of money in Washington, D.C., by the way.President Bush in Louisville, KYFebruary 26, 2004The tension is money. Theres not enough money.Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), Chair Appropriations CommitteeMarch 3, 2004---------------------------------

  • (Deficit excluding Social Security as % of GDP)SurplusDeficit1983-6.0%2004-5.9%

    Chart2

    1.2

    4.1

    -0.3

    -1.7

    1.3

    -1

    -2.2

    -0.7

    -1

    0.6

    0.6

    -0.7

    -2.5

    0.1

    -0.7

    -1

    -0.7

    -1

    -0.2

    -0.4

    -1.6

    -3.2

    -0.1

    -0.9

    -2.4

    -2.2

    -1.2

    -0.6

    -3.5

    -4.1

    -2.5

    -2.5

    -1.5

    -2.7

    -2.4

    -3.7

    -6

    -4.8

    -5.4

    -5.4

    -3.6

    -3.9

    -3.8

    -4.8

    -5.4

    -5.5

    -4.6

    -3.7

    -3.1

    -2.3

    -1.3

    -0.3

    0.05

    0.9

    -0.3

    -3.1

    -5

    -5.9

    On-Budget Deficit

    % of GDP

    Deficit as % of Economy Hits 2nd Highest Level Since End of World War II

    Sheet1

    DeficitsOn-BudgetRevenueOutlays

    DeficitTotalIncome TaxTotalOn-budget

    19300.83.4

    19310.64.3

    19324.06.9

    19334.58

    19345.910.7

    19354.09.2

    19365.510.5

    19372.56.6

    19380.17.7

    19393.210.3

    19403.06.8

    19414.37.6

    194214.210.15.624.424.3

    194330.313.38.943.643.6

    194422.820.916.543.743.6

    194521.520.415.541.941.8

    19467.217.612.524.824.7

    19471.71.216.511.314.714.6

    19484.64.116.211.311.611.5

    19490.2-0.314.59.814.314.1

    19501.1-1.714.49.615.615.4

    19511.91.316.111.114.213.8

    19520.4-1.01914.119.418.9

    19531.7-2.218.613.720.419.8

    19540.3-0.718.413.418.718

    19550.8-1.016.611.817.316.3

    19560.90.617.412.416.515.4

    19570.80.617.712.61715.7

    19580.6-0.717.311.917.916.2

    19592.6-2.516.11118.716.9

    19600.10.117.811.917.815.7

    19610.6-0.717.711.718.416.2

    19621.3-1.017.511.618.816.4

    19630.8-0.717.811.518.616.1

    19640.9-1.017.611.318.516

    19650.2-0.21710.817.214.8

    19660.5-0.417.311.417.815.2

    19671.1-1.618.311.819.416.8

    19682.9-3.217.611.220.517.9

    19690.3-0.119.713.119.316.7

    19700.3-0.91912.119.316.6

    19712.1-2.417.310.519.416.4

    19722.0-2.217.510.719.516.4

    19731.1-1.217.610.718.815.3

    19740.4-0.618.310.918.715.1

    19753.4-3.517.910.421.317.4

    19764.2-4.117.21021.417.4

    19772.7-2.51810.820.816.7

    19782.7-2.51810.920.716.6

    19791.6-1.518.511.320.116.1

    19802.7-2.718.911.321.617.4

    19812.6-2.419.611.322.217.7

    19824.0-3.719.110.723.118.4

    19836.0-6.017.59.523.519.2

    19844.8-4.817.49.322.217.9

    19855.1-5.417.79.622.918.6

    19865.0-5.417.59.322.518.3

    19873.2-3.618.410.221.617.4

    19883.1-3.918.19.921.217.2

    19892.8-3.818.310.121.217.3

    19903.9-4.8189.721.817.9

    19914.5-5.417.89.622.318.3

    19924.7-5.517.59.322.218.2

    19933.9-4.617.69.621.517.4

    19942.9-3.718.19.821.117

    19952.2-3.118.510.220.716.8

    19961.4-2.318.910.720.316.4

    19970.3-1.319.311.219.615.8

    19980.8-0.319.911.819.115.4

    19991.40.052011.618.615.1

    20002.40.920.812.418.415

    20011.3-0.319.911.418.615.1

    20021.5-3.117.99.719.416

    2003-3.5-516.58.519.916.6

    2004-4.5-5.915.78.220.216.9

    2005-3.0-4.516.99.219.916.6

    2006-2.1-3.717.49.619.616.4

    2007-1.8-3.517.79.819.516.4

    2008-1.7-3.517.89.919.516.5

    1980-200021.317.2714285714

    2001-200419.516.15

    Sheet1

    On-Budget Deficit

    % of GDP

    Deficit as % of Economy Hits 2nd Highest Level Since End of World War II

    Sheet2

    Revenue

    % of GDP

    Revenue as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1950

    Sheet3

    Income Tax

    % of GDP

    Income Tax as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1942

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Outlays (without Social Security) as % of Economy

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Total Outlays as % of Economy

    0

    0

    % of GDP

    Spending NOT Out of ControlOutlays as % of GDP

  • 1950 14.4%2004 15.7%

    Chart4

    16.2

    14.5

    14.4

    16.1

    19

    18.6

    18.4

    16.6

    17.4

    17.7

    17.3

    16.1

    17.8

    17.7

    17.5

    17.8

    17.6

    17

    17.3

    18.3

    17.6

    19.7

    19

    17.3

    17.5

    17.6

    18.3

    17.9

    17.2

    18

    18

    18.5

    18.9

    19.6

    19.1

    17.5

    17.4

    17.7

    17.5

    18.4

    18.1

    18.3

    18

    17.8

    17.5

    17.6

    18.1

    18.5

    18.9

    19.3

    19.9

    20

    20.8

    19.9

    17.9

    16.5

    15.7

    Revenue

    % of GDP

    Revenue as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1950

    Sheet1

    DeficitsOn-BudgetRevenueOutlays

    DeficitTotalIncome TaxTotalOn-budget

    19300.83.4

    19310.64.3

    19324.06.9

    19334.58

    19345.910.7

    19354.09.2

    19365.510.5

    19372.56.6

    19380.17.7

    19393.210.3

    19403.06.8

    19414.37.6

    194214.210.15.624.424.3

    194330.313.38.943.643.6

    194422.820.916.543.743.6

    194521.520.415.541.941.8

    19467.217.612.524.824.7

    19471.71.216.511.314.714.6

    19484.64.116.211.311.611.5

    19490.2-0.314.59.814.314.1

    19501.1-1.714.49.615.615.4

    19511.91.316.111.114.213.8

    19520.4-1.01914.119.418.9

    19531.7-2.218.613.720.419.8

    19540.3-0.718.413.418.718

    19550.8-1.016.611.817.316.3

    19560.90.617.412.416.515.4

    19570.80.617.712.61715.7

    19580.6-0.717.311.917.916.2

    19592.6-2.516.11118.716.9

    19600.10.117.811.917.815.7

    19610.6-0.717.711.718.416.2

    19621.3-1.017.511.618.816.4

    19630.8-0.717.811.518.616.1

    19640.9-1.017.611.318.516

    19650.2-0.21710.817.214.8

    19660.5-0.417.311.417.815.2

    19671.1-1.618.311.819.416.8

    19682.9-3.217.611.220.517.9

    19690.3-0.119.713.119.316.7

    19700.3-0.91912.119.316.6

    19712.1-2.417.310.519.416.4

    19722.0-2.217.510.719.516.4

    19731.1-1.217.610.718.815.3

    19740.4-0.618.310.918.715.1

    19753.4-3.517.910.421.317.4

    19764.2-4.117.21021.417.4

    19772.7-2.51810.820.816.7

    19782.7-2.51810.920.716.6

    19791.6-1.518.511.320.116.1

    19802.7-2.718.911.321.617.4

    19812.6-2.419.611.322.217.7

    19824.0-3.719.110.723.118.4

    19836.0-6.017.59.523.519.2

    19844.8-4.817.49.322.217.9

    19855.1-5.417.79.622.918.6

    19865.0-5.417.59.322.518.3

    19873.2-3.618.410.221.617.4

    19883.1-3.918.19.921.217.2

    19892.8-3.818.310.121.217.3

    19903.9-4.8189.721.817.9

    19914.5-5.417.89.622.318.3

    19924.7-5.517.59.322.218.2

    19933.9-4.617.69.621.517.4

    19942.9-3.718.19.821.117

    19952.2-3.118.510.220.716.8

    19961.4-2.318.910.720.316.4

    19970.3-1.319.311.219.615.8

    19980.8-0.319.911.819.115.4

    19991.40.052011.618.615.1

    20002.40.920.812.418.415

    20011.3-0.319.911.418.615.1

    20021.5-3.117.99.719.416

    2003-3.5-516.58.519.916.6

    2004-4.5-5.915.78.220.216.9

    2005-3.0-4.516.99.219.916.6

    2006-2.1-3.717.49.619.616.4

    2007-1.8-3.517.79.819.516.4

    2008-1.7-3.517.89.919.516.5

    1980-200021.317.2714285714

    2001-200419.516.15

    Sheet1

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    On-Budget Deficit

    % of GDP

    Deficit as % of Economy Hits Highest Level Since End of World War II

    Sheet2

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Revenue

    % of GDP

    Revenue as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1950

    Sheet3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Income Tax

    % of GDP

    Income Tax as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1942

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Outlays (without Social Security) as % of Economy

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Total Outlays as % of Economy

    21.3

    19.5

    % of GDP

    Spending is NOT Out of Control Outlays as % of Economy

    0

    0

    % of GDP

    Spending NOT Out of ControlOutlays as % of GDP

  • 1.8% of GDP = $207 Billion in 2004

    Chart1

    21.3

    19.5

    % of GDP

    Spending NOT Out of ControlOutlays as % of GDP

    Sheet1

    DeficitsOn-BudgetRevenueOutlays

    DeficitTotalIncome TaxTotalOn-budget

    19300.83.4

    19310.64.3

    19324.06.9

    19334.58

    19345.910.7

    19354.09.2

    19365.510.5

    19372.56.6

    19380.17.7

    19393.210.3

    19403.06.8

    19414.37.6

    194214.210.15.624.424.3

    194330.313.38.943.643.6

    194422.820.916.543.743.6

    194521.520.415.541.941.8

    19467.217.612.524.824.7

    19471.71.216.511.314.714.6

    19484.64.116.211.311.611.5

    19490.2-0.314.59.814.314.1

    19501.1-1.714.49.615.615.4

    19511.91.316.111.114.213.8

    19520.4-1.01914.119.418.9

    19531.7-2.218.613.720.419.8

    19540.3-0.718.413.418.718

    19550.8-1.016.611.817.316.3

    19560.90.617.412.416.515.4

    19570.80.617.712.61715.7

    19580.6-0.717.311.917.916.2

    19592.6-2.516.11118.716.9

    19600.10.117.811.917.815.7

    19610.6-0.717.711.718.416.2

    19621.3-1.017.511.618.816.4

    19630.8-0.717.811.518.616.1

    19640.9-1.017.611.318.516

    19650.2-0.21710.817.214.8

    19660.5-0.417.311.417.815.2

    19671.1-1.618.311.819.416.8

    19682.9-3.217.611.220.517.9

    19690.3-0.119.713.119.316.7

    19700.3-0.91912.119.316.6

    19712.1-2.417.310.519.416.4

    19722.0-2.217.510.719.516.4

    19731.1-1.217.610.718.815.3

    19740.4-0.618.310.918.715.1

    19753.4-3.517.910.421.317.4

    19764.2-4.117.21021.417.4

    19772.7-2.51810.820.816.7

    19782.7-2.51810.920.716.6

    19791.6-1.518.511.320.116.1

    19802.7-2.718.911.321.617.4

    19812.6-2.419.611.322.217.7

    19824.0-3.719.110.723.118.4

    19836.0-6.017.59.523.519.2

    19844.8-4.817.49.322.217.9

    19855.1-5.417.79.622.918.6

    19865.0-5.417.59.322.518.3

    19873.2-3.618.410.221.617.4

    19883.1-3.918.19.921.217.2

    19892.8-3.818.310.121.217.3

    19903.9-4.8189.721.817.9

    19914.5-5.417.89.622.318.3

    19924.7-5.517.59.322.218.2

    19933.9-4.617.69.621.517.4

    19942.9-3.718.19.821.117

    19952.2-3.118.510.220.716.8

    19961.4-2.318.910.720.316.4

    19970.3-1.319.311.219.615.8

    19980.8-0.319.911.819.115.4

    19991.40.052011.618.615.1

    20002.40.920.812.418.415

    20011.3-0.319.911.418.615.1

    20021.5-3.117.99.719.416

    2003-3.5-516.58.519.916.6

    2004-4.5-5.915.78.220.216.9

    2005-3.0-4.516.99.219.916.6

    2006-2.1-3.717.49.619.616.4

    2007-1.8-3.517.79.819.516.4

    2008-1.7-3.517.89.919.516.5

    1980-200021.317.2714285714

    2001-200419.516.15

    Sheet1

    On-Budget Deficit

    % of GDP

    Deficit as % of Economy Hits Highest Level Since End of World War II

    Sheet2

    Revenue

    % of GDP

    Revenue as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1950

    Sheet3

    Income Tax

    % of GDP

    Income Tax as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1942

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Outlays (without Social Security) as % of Economy

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Total Outlays as % of Economy

    % of GDP

    Spending is NOT Out of Control Outlays as % of Economy

    % of GDP

    Spending NOT Out of ControlOutlays as % of GDP

  • Percent Change 2004-2006-0.5%2004-2009+1.0%

    Chart9

    376

    383

    382

    381

    383

    385

    387

    Current $

    Billions

    Domestic Spending ExcludingHomeland Security

    376

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 DeflatePer Capita

    State3436200011.0585What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246AgreeDisagree

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129Not StronglyNot Strongly

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777StronglyStrongly

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment6123510

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States5626710

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46301112

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43321012

    Support for a long-term offensive campaignSource: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Conservative Perspectives on Taxation are NOT Supported

    AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92I dont like paying taxes because the government doesnt do anything for me10%12%26%49%

    National6.64I dont like paying taxes because government spends too much money on welfare and other handouts15%13%33%36%

    All Groups6.2Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment61%23%5%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States56%26%7%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46%30%11%12%

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43%32%10%12%

    Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Engagement

    Develop Common Messages, Themes & Principles69.3

    Info on State/Local Impact63.5

    Distribute Up-To-Date Tax/Budget Info63.2

    Info on Issue Area Impacts63

    Internet Resource Center49.5

    Funding for Tax/Budget19.880.2

    Trainings on Tax/Budget32.767.3

    Challenges to a Network

    Somewhat ChallengeMajor Challenge

    Lack of Coordination3541

    Limited Leadership & Org Structure3240

    Somewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree

    Impossible to Agree on Message3626

    Activities to Be Undertaken

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Develop Policies & Principles that Provide Vision3450

    Improve Language We Use -- Values Based Language3153

    Voter Mobilization for Accountability2464

    Push State & Federal Legislation on Tax/Budget3158

    Sheet1

    3436

    3826

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    6.92

    6.64

    6.2

    5.81

    5.6

    5.16

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    4349

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3456

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    2864

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3558

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3060

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3045

    2463

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    3139

    3045

    2463

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    00

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    2341

    2357

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    00

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

    -5-33456

    -28-213116

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    5

    28

    3

    21

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Ranking

    69.3

    63.5

    63.2

    63

    Ranking

    80.2

    67.3

    Ranking

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    Top Two Challenges to Success

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    40

    41

    3626

    Somewhat Disagree

    Strongly Disagree

    %

    6129

    6129

    6033

    7717

    Very Important

    Somewhat Important

    %

    3450

    3153

    2464

    3158

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security

    Current $adj 2000Constant $Population Adjdeflator2003 Index2000 IndexPopulation2003 Deflator

    200011.05852753061.0272133553

    20011.02341.03429743990.97713504012778041.017976703

    20021.04151.01632261160.96015362462803061.0088902842

    2003376355.2196504487376.0376.01.058510.94473311292827981

    2004383357.1428571429378.0374.81.07240.98703841850.93248787772852660.9913484257

    2005382351.8143304476372.4366.01.08580.97485724810.92097992262877160.9829067553

    2006381345.7036566555365.9356.71.10210.96043916160.90735867892901530.9746513047

    2007383341.8421992146361.8349.71.12040.94475187430.89253837922925830.9665564985

    2008385337.1573692968356.9342.11.14190.92696383220.87573342672950090.9586080425

    2009387332.1603295854351.6334.31.16510.90850570770.85829542532974360.9507860515

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Current $

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    376

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Current $

    Constant $

    Billions

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Current $

    Constant $

    Population Adj

    Billions

  • Percent Change 2004-2006-3.2%2004-2009-7.0%

    Chart15

    376376

    383378.0357142857

    382372.3954687788

    381365.9273205698

    383361.8399678686

    385356.8810754006

    387351.5917088662

    Current $

    Constant $

    Billions

    Domestic Spending ExcludingHomeland Security

    352

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 DeflatePer Capita

    State3436200011.0585What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246AgreeDisagree

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129Not StronglyNot Strongly

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777StronglyStrongly

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment6123510

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States5626710

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46301112

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43321012

    Support for a long-term offensive campaignSource: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Conservative Perspectives on Taxation are NOT Supported

    AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92I dont like paying taxes because the government doesnt do anything for me10%12%26%49%

    National6.64I dont like paying taxes because government spends too much money on welfare and other handouts15%13%33%36%

    All Groups6.2Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment61%23%5%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States56%26%7%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46%30%11%12%

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43%32%10%12%

    Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Engagement

    Develop Common Messages, Themes & Principles69.3

    Info on State/Local Impact63.5

    Distribute Up-To-Date Tax/Budget Info63.2

    Info on Issue Area Impacts63

    Internet Resource Center49.5

    Funding for Tax/Budget19.880.2

    Trainings on Tax/Budget32.767.3

    Challenges to a Network

    Somewhat ChallengeMajor Challenge

    Lack of Coordination3541

    Limited Leadership & Org Structure3240

    Somewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree

    Impossible to Agree on Message3626

    Activities to Be Undertaken

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Develop Policies & Principles that Provide Vision3450

    Improve Language We Use -- Values Based Language3153

    Voter Mobilization for Accountability2464

    Push State & Federal Legislation on Tax/Budget3158

    Sheet1

    3436

    3826

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    6.92

    6.64

    6.2

    5.81

    5.6

    5.16

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    4349

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3456

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    2864

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3558

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3060

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3045

    2463

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    3139

    3045

    2463

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    00

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    2341

    2357

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    00

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

    -5-33456

    -28-213116

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    5

    28

    3

    21

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Ranking

    69.3

    63.5

    63.2

    63

    Ranking

    80.2

    67.3

    Ranking

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    Top Two Challenges to Success

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    40

    41

    3626

    Somewhat Disagree

    Strongly Disagree

    %

    6129

    6129

    6033

    7717

    Very Important

    Somewhat Important

    %

    3450

    3153

    2464

    3158

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security

    Current $adj 2000Constant $Population Adjdeflator2003 Index2000 IndexPopulation2003 Deflator

    200011.05852753061.0272133553

    20011.02341.03429743990.97713504012778041.017976703

    20021.04151.01632261160.96015362462803061.0088902842

    2003376355.21965044873763761.058510.94473311292827981

    2004383357.14285714293783751.07240.98703841850.93248787772852660.9913484257

    2005382351.81433044763723661.08580.97485724810.92097992262877160.9829067553

    2006381345.70365665553663571.10210.96043916160.90735867892901530.9746513047-0.5%-3.2%-4.8%

    2007383341.84219921463623501.12040.94475187430.89253837922925830.96655649850.0%-4.3%-6.7%

    2008385337.15736929683573421.14190.92696383220.87573342672950090.95860804250.5%-5.6%-8.7%

    2009387332.16032958543523341.16510.90850570770.85829542532974360.95078605151.0%-7.0%-10.8%

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Current $

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    376

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Current $

    Constant $

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    352

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Current $

    Constant $

    Population Adj

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    334

  • Percent Change 2004-2006-4.8%2004-2009 -10.8%

    Chart17

    376376376

    383378.0357142857374.7651102079

    382372.3954687788366.0300218956

    381365.9273205698356.6515404028

    383361.8399678686349.7387723597

    385356.8810754006342.1090690832

    387351.5917088662334.2884925965

    Current $

    Constant $

    Population Adj

    Billions

    Domestic Spending ExcludingHomeland Security

    334

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 DeflatePer Capita

    State3436200011.0585What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246AgreeDisagree

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129Not StronglyNot Strongly

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777StronglyStrongly

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment6123510

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States5626710

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46301112

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43321012

    Support for a long-term offensive campaignSource: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Conservative Perspectives on Taxation are NOT Supported

    AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92I dont like paying taxes because the government doesnt do anything for me10%12%26%49%

    National6.64I dont like paying taxes because government spends too much money on welfare and other handouts15%13%33%36%

    All Groups6.2Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment61%23%5%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States56%26%7%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46%30%11%12%

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43%32%10%12%

    Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Engagement

    Develop Common Messages, Themes & Principles69.3

    Info on State/Local Impact63.5

    Distribute Up-To-Date Tax/Budget Info63.2

    Info on Issue Area Impacts63

    Internet Resource Center49.5

    Funding for Tax/Budget19.880.2

    Trainings on Tax/Budget32.767.3

    Challenges to a Network

    Somewhat ChallengeMajor Challenge

    Lack of Coordination3541

    Limited Leadership & Org Structure3240

    Somewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree

    Impossible to Agree on Message3626

    Activities to Be Undertaken

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Develop Policies & Principles that Provide Vision3450

    Improve Language We Use -- Values Based Language3153

    Voter Mobilization for Accountability2464

    Push State & Federal Legislation on Tax/Budget3158

    Sheet1

    3436

    3826

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    6.92

    6.64

    6.2

    5.81

    5.6

    5.16

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    4349

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3456

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    2864

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3558

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3060

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3045

    2463

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    3139

    3045

    2463

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    00

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    2341

    2357

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    00

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

    -5-33456

    -28-213116

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    5

    28

    3

    21

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Ranking

    69.3

    63.5

    63.2

    63

    Ranking

    80.2

    67.3

    Ranking

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    Top Two Challenges to Success

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    40

    41

    3626

    Somewhat Disagree

    Strongly Disagree

    %

    6129

    6129

    6033

    7717

    Very Important

    Somewhat Important

    %

    3450

    3153

    2464

    3158

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security

    Current $adj 2000Constant $Population Adjdeflator2003 Index2000 IndexPopulation2003 Deflator

    200011.05852753061.0272133553

    20011.02341.03429743990.97713504012778041.017976703

    20021.04151.01632261160.96015362462803061.0088902842

    2003376355.21965044873763761.058510.94473311292827981

    2004383357.14285714293783751.07240.98703841850.93248787772852660.9913484257

    2005382351.81433044763723661.08580.97485724810.92097992262877160.9829067553

    2006381345.70365665553663571.10210.96043916160.90735867892901530.9746513047-0.5%-3.2%-4.8%

    2007383341.84219921463623501.12040.94475187430.89253837922925830.96655649850.0%-4.3%-6.7%

    2008385337.15736929683573421.14190.92696383220.87573342672950090.95860804250.5%-5.6%-8.7%

    2009387332.16032958543523341.16510.90850570770.85829542532974360.95078605151.0%-7.0%-10.8%

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    22

    Current $

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    376

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Current $

    Constant $

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    352

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    000

    Current $

    Constant $

    Population Adj

    Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    334

  • The Longer-Term Budget & Tax PictureI dont want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.Grover Norquist, Americans for Tax ReformJune 25, 2003

  • Source: Steuerle, Carasso, Bishop, based on data from Gale, Orszag, and the Tax Policy Center.

  • 3.3%

    Source: Steuerle, Carasso, Bishop, based on data from Gale, Orszag, and the Tax Policy Center.

  • Lost Federal Revenue Compared to Philanthropic GivingAll figures in 2009 Dollars. Philanthropy source: American Association of Fundraising Counsels Trust in Philanthropy/Giving USA 2003.

    Assuming charitable giving keeps pace with the growth in the economy, giving in 2009 will be $341.4 billion. Charity would need to increase 142% to replace the lost federal revenue, assuming it continues to fund existing activities.

    Chart7

    485.1528

    260.3470337594

    38.1237627008

    25.6520485087

    17.290331039

    $ in Billions

    Sheet1

    DeficitsOn-BudgetRevenueOutlays

    DeficitTotalIncome TaxTotalOn-budget

    19300.83.4

    19310.64.3

    19324.06.9

    19334.58

    19345.910.7

    19354.09.2

    19365.510.5

    19372.56.6

    19380.17.7

    19393.210.3

    19403.06.8

    19414.37.6

    194214.210.15.624.424.3

    194330.313.38.943.643.6

    194422.820.916.543.743.6

    194521.520.415.541.941.8

    19467.217.612.524.824.7

    19471.71.216.511.314.714.6

    19484.64.116.211.311.611.5

    19490.2-0.314.59.814.314.1

    19501.1-1.714.49.615.615.4

    19511.91.316.111.114.213.8

    19520.4-1.01914.119.418.9

    19531.7-2.218.613.720.419.8

    19540.3-0.718.413.418.718

    19550.8-1.016.611.817.316.3

    19560.90.617.412.416.515.4

    19570.80.617.712.61715.7

    19580.6-0.717.311.917.916.2

    19592.6-2.516.11118.716.9

    19600.10.117.811.917.815.7

    19610.6-0.717.711.718.416.2

    19621.3-1.017.511.618.816.4

    19630.8-0.717.811.518.616.1

    19640.9-1.017.611.318.516

    19650.2-0.21710.817.214.8

    19660.5-0.417.311.417.815.2

    19671.1-1.618.311.819.416.8

    19682.9-3.217.611.220.517.9

    19690.3-0.119.713.119.316.7

    19700.3-0.91912.119.316.6

    19712.1-2.417.310.519.416.4

    19722.0-2.217.510.719.516.4

    19731.1-1.217.610.718.815.3

    19740.4-0.618.310.918.715.1

    19753.4-3.517.910.421.317.4

    19764.2-4.117.21021.417.4

    19772.7-2.51810.820.816.7

    19782.7-2.51810.920.716.6

    19791.6-1.518.511.320.116.1

    19802.7-2.718.911.321.617.4

    19812.6-2.419.611.322.217.7

    19824.0-3.719.110.723.118.4

    19836.0-6.017.59.523.519.2

    19844.8-4.817.49.322.217.9

    19855.1-5.417.79.622.918.6

    19865.0-5.417.59.322.518.3

    19873.2-3.618.410.221.617.4

    19883.1-3.918.19.921.217.2

    19892.8-3.818.310.121.217.3

    19903.9-4.8189.721.817.9

    19914.5-5.417.89.622.318.3

    19924.7-5.517.59.322.218.2

    19933.9-4.617.69.621.517.4

    19942.9-3.718.19.821.117

    19952.2-3.118.510.220.716.8

    19961.4-2.318.910.720.316.4

    19970.3-1.319.311.219.615.8

    19980.8-0.319.911.819.115.4

    19991.40.052011.618.615.1

    20002.40.920.812.418.415

    20011.3-0.319.911.418.615.1

    20021.5-3.117.99.719.4161

    2003-3.5-516.58.519.916.60.9579897121

    2004-4.5-5.915.78.220.216.90.9047095761

    2005-3.0-4.516.99.219.916.60.8614063642

    2006-2.1-3.717.49.619.616.40.820608966

    2007-1.8-3.517.79.819.516.40.7811824597

    2008-1.7-3.517.89.919.516.50.7424101456

    10373.40.7055966698

    1982-1989Reagan Years189.82522.27518.0375

    1980-200018.51904761921.317.2714285714

    2001-200417.519.516.15

    Current $In 2002 Dollars

    deflator2002 DeflateGDPGDP adjLost RevenueLost RevenueIndividual GivingFoundationsBequestsCorp GivingPhilanthropic Giving

    200011.04159708.4

    20011.02341.017686144210040.7

    20021.0415110373.410373.4342.3222

    20031.05850.983939537110828.310654.3924893718

    20041.07240.97118612461146611135.6201044386

    200051.08580.959200589412042.411551.0771781175

    200061.10210.945014064112641.111946.0172851828

    200071.12040.929578721913279.112343.9688057837

    20081.14190.91207636413972.612744.078202995

    20091.16510.893914685414701.613141.9761393872485.1528433.6852125998183.726.918.112.2240.9

    2009 adj260.347033759438.123762700825.652048508717.290331039341.4131760079

    Sheet1

    1.2

    4.1

    -0.3

    -1.7

    1.3

    -1

    -2.2

    -0.7

    -1

    0.6

    0.6

    -0.7

    -2.5

    0.1

    -0.7

    -1

    -0.7

    -1

    -0.2

    -0.4

    -1.6

    -3.2

    -0.1

    -0.9

    -2.4

    -2.2

    -1.2

    -0.6

    -3.5

    -4.1

    -2.5

    -2.5

    -1.5

    -2.7

    -2.4

    -3.7

    -6

    -4.8

    -5.4

    -5.4

    -3.6

    -3.9

    -3.8

    -4.8

    -5.4

    -5.5

    -4.6

    -3.7

    -3.1

    -2.3

    -1.3

    -0.3

    0.05

    0.9

    -0.3

    -3.1

    -5

    -5.9

    On-Budget Deficit

    % of GDP

    Deficit as % of Economy Hits Highest Level Since End of World War II

    Sheet2

    16.2

    14.5

    14.4

    16.1

    19

    18.6

    18.4

    16.6

    17.4

    17.7

    17.3

    16.1

    17.8

    17.7

    17.5

    17.8

    17.6

    17

    17.3

    18.3

    17.6

    19.7

    19

    17.3

    17.5

    17.6

    18.3

    17.9

    17.2

    18

    18

    18.5

    18.9

    19.6

    19.1

    17.5

    17.4

    17.7

    17.5

    18.4

    18.1

    18.3

    18

    17.8

    17.5

    17.6

    18.1

    18.5

    18.9

    19.3

    19.9

    20

    20.8

    19.9

    17.9

    16.5

    15.7

    Revenue

    % of GDP

    Revenue as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1950

    Sheet3

    5.6

    8.9

    16.5

    15.5

    12.5

    11.3

    11.3

    9.8

    9.6

    11.1

    14.1

    13.7

    13.4

    11.8

    12.4

    12.6

    11.9

    11

    11.9

    11.7

    11.6

    11.5

    11.3

    10.8

    11.4

    11.8

    11.2

    13.1

    12.1

    10.5

    10.7

    10.7

    10.9

    10.4

    10

    10.8

    10.9

    11.3

    11.3

    11.3

    10.7

    9.5

    9.3

    9.6

    9.3

    10.2

    9.9

    10.1

    9.7

    9.6

    9.3

    9.6

    9.8

    10.2

    10.7

    11.2

    11.8

    11.6

    12.4

    11.4

    9.7

    8.5

    8.2

    Income Tax

    % of GDP

    Income Tax as % of Economy isLowest Level Since 1942

    16.9

    15.7

    16.2

    16.4

    16.1

    16

    14.8

    15.2

    16.8

    17.9

    16.7

    16.6

    16.4

    16.4

    15.3

    15.1

    17.4

    17.4

    16.7

    16.6

    16.1

    17.4

    17.7

    18.4

    19.2

    17.9

    18.6

    18.3

    17.4

    17.2

    17.3

    17.9

    18.3

    18.2

    17.4

    17

    16.8

    16.4

    15.8

    15.4

    15.1

    15

    15.1

    16

    16.6

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Outlays (without Social Security) as % of Economy

    18.7

    17.8

    18.4

    18.8

    18.6

    18.5

    17.2

    17.8

    19.4

    20.5

    19.3

    19.3

    19.4

    19.5

    18.8

    18.7

    21.3

    21.4

    20.8

    20.7

    20.1

    21.6

    22.2

    23.1

    23.5

    22.2

    22.9

    22.5

    21.6

    21.2

    21.2

    21.8

    22.3

    22.2

    21.5

    21.1

    20.7

    20.3

    19.6

    19.1

    18.6

    18.4

    18.6

    19.4

    19.9

    On Budget Outlays

    % of GDP

    Total Outlays as % of Economy

    21.3

    19.5

    % of GDP

    Spending NOT Out of ControlOutlays as % of GDP

    $ in Billions

    1

    $ in Billions

  • As Baby Boomers Come of Age, the Deficit ExplodesSource: Derived from Chart 12-5, OMB, 2005 Budget, Analytical Perspectives, page 194

  • Chart6

    12.1

    3.8

    In Trillions

    2001-03 Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 Deflate

    State3436200011.0585What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246AgreeDisagree

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129Not StronglyNot Strongly

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777StronglyStrongly

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment6123510

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States5626710

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46301112

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43321012

    Support for a long-term offensive campaignSource: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Conservative Perspectives on Taxation are NOT Supported

    AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92I dont like paying taxes because the government doesnt do anything for me10%12%26%49%

    National6.64I dont like paying taxes because government spends too much money on welfare and other handouts15%13%33%36%

    All Groups6.2Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment61%23%5%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States56%26%7%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46%30%11%12%

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43%32%10%12%

    Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Engagement

    Develop Common Messages, Themes & Principles69.3

    Info on State/Local Impact63.5

    Distribute Up-To-Date Tax/Budget Info63.2

    Info on Issue Area Impacts63

    Internet Resource Center49.5

    Funding for Tax/Budget19.880.2

    Trainings on Tax/Budget32.767.3

    Challenges to a Network

    Somewhat ChallengeMajor Challenge

    Lack of Coordination3541

    Limited Leadership & Org Structure3240

    Somewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree

    Impossible to Agree on Message3626

    Activities to Be Undertaken

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Develop Policies & Principles the Provide Vision3450

    Improve Language We Use -- Values Based Language3153

    Voter Mobilization for Accountability2464

    Push State & Federal Legislation on Tax/Budget3158

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    4349

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    00

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    00

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3558

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    00

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    00

    00

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    00

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    00

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    0

    0

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    00

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

    0000

    0000

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    5

    28

    3

    21

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Ranking

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Ranking

    0

    0

    Ranking

    00

    00

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    Top Two Challenges to Success

    00

    00

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    40

    41

    00

    Somewhat Disagree

    Strongly Disagree

    %

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Very Important

    Somewhat Important

    %

    0

    0

    In Trillions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

  • The Long-Term ProblemIts a Revenue Problem. The tax cuts since 2001 cause long-term systemic problems. Additionally, there is a need to develop a fairer tax system with more revenue.

    Hard Choices Await Us. Even with additional revenue, some hard choices about spending priorities may be necessary. For example, some note that current health care policies are not sustainable over the long-term.

  • Conservative Perspectives on Taxes are NOT Supported

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 Deflate

    State3436200011.0585What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246AgreeDisagree

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129Not StronglyNot Strongly

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777StronglyStrongly

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment6123510

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States5626710

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46301112

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43321012

    Support for a long-term offensive campaignSource: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Conservative Perspectives on Taxation are NOT Supported

    AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92I dont like paying taxes because the government doesnt do anything for me10%12%26%49%

    National6.64I dont like paying taxes because government spends too much money on welfare and other handouts15%13%33%36%

    All Groups6.2Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Engagement

    Develop Common Messages, Themes & Principles69.3

    Info on State/Local Impact63.5

    Distribute Up-To-Date Tax/Budget Info63.2

    Info on Issue Area Impacts63

    Internet Resource Center49.5

    Funding for Tax/Budget19.880.2

    Trainings on Tax/Budget32.767.3

    Challenges to a Network

    Somewhat ChallengeMajor Challenge

    Lack of Coordination3541

    Limited Leadership & Org Structure3240

    Somewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree

    Impossible to Agree on Message3626

    Sheet1

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    5

    28

    3

    21

    Ranking

    Ranking

    Ranking

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    Top Two Challenges to Success

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    40

    41

    Somewhat Disagree

    Strongly Disagree

    %

  • Conservative Perspectives on Taxes are NOT SupportedThe govt doesnt do anything for meI dont like paying taxes becauseGovt spends too much money on welfare and other handouts75%69%

  • What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 Deflate

    State3436200011.0585What the Public Does Not Mind About Paying Taxes

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246AgreeDisagree

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129Not StronglyNot Strongly

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777StronglyStrongly

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment6123510

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States5626710

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46301112

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43321012

    Support for a long-term offensive campaignSource: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Conservative Perspectives on Taxation are NOT Supported

    AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92I dont like paying taxes because the government doesnt do anything for me10%12%26%49%

    National6.64I dont like paying taxes because government spends too much money on welfare and other handouts15%13%33%36%

    All Groups6.2Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16AgreeDisagree

    StronglyNot StronglyStronglyNot Strongly

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes contribute to making sure we have public schools, clean streets, public safety and a national defense and a cleaner environment61%23%5%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because my taxes are part of my contribution to society as a citizen of the United States56%26%7%10%

    I dont mind paying taxes because I want to play a strong role in helping people, when in need46%30%11%12%

    I dont mind paying taxes because it is my contributions to make sure our government helps create opportunities and keep the economy growing43%32%10%12%

    Source: Survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted for Public Interest Projects by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research between October 21 and October 26, 2003.

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Engagement

    Develop Common Messages, Themes & Principles69.3

    Info on State/Local Impact63.5

    Distribute Up-To-Date Tax/Budget Info63.2

    Info on Issue Area Impacts63

    Internet Resource Center49.5

    Funding for Tax/Budget19.880.2

    Trainings on Tax/Budget32.767.3

    Challenges to a Network

    Somewhat ChallengeMajor Challenge

    Lack of Coordination3541

    Limited Leadership & Org Structure3240

    Somewhat DisagreeStrongly Disagree

    Impossible to Agree on Message3626

    Sheet1

    3436

    3826

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    6.92

    6.64

    6.2

    5.81

    5.6

    5.16

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    4349

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3456

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    2864

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3558

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3060

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3045

    2463

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    3139

    3045

    2463

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2516

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    3719

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    376376

    378.0357142857383

    372.3954687788382

    365.9273205698381

    361.8399678686383

    356.8810754006385

    351.5917088662387

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    2341

    2357

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    12.13.8

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

    -5-33456

    -28-213116

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    5

    28

    3

    21

    69.3

    63.5

    63.2

    63

    Ranking

    69.3

    63.5

    63.2

    63

    Ranking

    80.2

    67.3

    Ranking

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    Top Two Challenges to Success

    3541

    3240

    Somewhat Challenge

    Major Challenge

    %

    40

    41

    3626

    Somewhat Disagree

    Strongly Disagree

    %

    6129

    6129

    6033

    7717

    Very Important

    Somewhat Important

    %

  • The Public Supports a Strong Government and the Taxes to Pay for ItBut 65% also Agree I dont like paying taxes because the government is too wasteful and inefficient.

  • Americans hate taxes, do not trust the government to spend them well and want to keep the money for themselves. To some extent this is natural, to some extent it has been very carefully and intentionally crafted by the right wing groups. That must be countered or change will go no where.

  • A Long-Term Proactive Tax and Budget InitiativePrepared byOMB Watch1742 Connecticut Ave., NWWashington, D.C. 20009(202) 234-8494http://www.ombwatch.org

  • What We Have Donesee www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/2095/1/2/Call to Action paper in December, 2003 (see www.ombwatch.org/article/articleview/1952/1/18/). Internet Survey -- completed by over 700 respondents in Jan/Feb, 2004. Regional Strategy Sessions -- in Columbia, SC; Seattle, WA; Chicago, IL; Philadelphia, PA, and Phoenix, AZ.

  • What We Plan To Do

    National Retreat Develop specific ideas and next steps on June 13 and 15, 2004.Online Resource Center on tax and budget information. Face on the Numbers -- Online database (www.ombwatch.org/budget/face.html) of stories about unmet needs and how a service or program has made a positive difference.

  • PART IIInternet Survey Results

  • Purpose of the SurveyIdentify tax and budget activities in which nonprofits are currently actively engagedAssess the importance of launching a long-term proactive initiative on federal tax and budget issuesIdentify the goals and activities that should be undertakenWhat are the challenges to success, and what it takes to get groups to participate

  • About the Internet SurveyNot a Random Sample

    Over 700 Respondents with Diversity in Respondent Pool

    Respondents From Every State But Nebraska

    Survey Conducted Between January 13 February 4, 2004

  • Not a Random SampleSources of BiasTechnology / Internet accessOMB Watch Network / Email notificationDistributed by CDF, CHN, NCNA, NCRP, United Way, FTFA, OMB Watch, and other state/national groupsNot representative of overall nonprofit population, but may be more representative of progressive groupsSelf-Selection Likely to be more interested in tax and budget workHowever, there was significant diversity in the respondent pool

  • Survey Respondents63% of Respondents Were 501(c)(3) Groups; 10% government; 9% foundations; 7% 501(c)(4)s; 9% other

    45% Said Their Primary Activity Was Service Provision

    42% Said Their Primary Activity Was Advocacy Or Public Interest Work

    42% Said Their Primary Mission Was Serving Children, Youth & Families

  • Survey Respondents: Scope

  • What Are Groups Doing Now?Over the past year, in what ways has your organization gotten involved in tax and budget issues?Communicated w/ Members or Public to Support or Oppose Tax/Budget IssueCommunicated w/ Policy-maker to Support or Oppose State Tax/Budget IssueCommunicated w/ Policy-maker to Support or Oppose Federal Tax/Budget IssueCommunicated w/ News Media to Support or Oppose State Tax/Budget IssueCommunicated w/ News Media to Support or Oppose Federal Tax/Budget IssueReleased Research Reports/ Analyses on Tax/Budget46%44%35%22%18%15%

    Chart3

    2323

    2519

    2114

    139

    117

    96

    Somewhat Often

    Very Often

    %

    Sheet1

    MISSION

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Service Providers53.835.96.12.644.389.781

    TA Provider46.846.84.81.6sigbificant17.993.687.2

    Public Education52.541.33.22.417.993.888.2

    Advocacy59.734.55.12.641.294.286.5

    Research59.735.830.71995.591.8

    PRIMARY ACTIVITY

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Recreation37.545.88.34.23.483.370.8

    Religious5046.23.803.796.292.4

    Philanthropy66.726.73.304.393.490.1

    Intntl55.336.82.65.35.492.184.2

    Immigration68.928.92.206.497.895.6

    Women's Issues54.341.32.206.595.693.4

    Arts6230627.19284

    Research58.736.51.61.68.995.292

    Tax/Budget68.8253.11.69.193.889.1

    Dem Bldg68.426.65.1011.29589.9

    Nutrition66.729.81.22.411.996.592.9

    Civil Rights5834.15.72.312.588 respondents92.184.1

    Govt Acctblty64.428.93.31.112.893.388.9

    Environment55375214.2100 respondents9285

    Econ Dvlpmt55.136.44.22.516.891.584.8

    Disability50.737.38421.38876

    NP Sector48.6405.72.919.988.680

    Education5633.86.91.930.789.881

    Health51.938.37.72.22690.280.3

    Emplymt5635.34.73.321.391.383.3

    Child, Youth, Families56.135.55.424291.684.2

    Housing58.834.14.11.224.192.987.6

    Somewhat OftenVery OftenTotal

    Grassroots Lobby232346

    Direct Lobby - State251944

    Direct Lobby - Fed211435

    Media - State13922

    Research/Analysis11718

    Media - Fed9615

    Somewhat ImportantVery ImportantTotal

    Tax System Raises Revenue177794

    Econ Growth -- Jobs336093

    Domestic Needs296190

    Fed Mandates296190

    Cut Low & Middle Inc Taxes246387

    Attack on Role of Govt304575

    Address Unmet Needs313970

    Cut Govt Spending251641

    What the major challenges to developing and maintaining a network of national, staet and local groups?

    Somewhat of a ChallengeMajor ChallengeTotal

    Lack Coordination354176

    Leadership324072

    Top Down383169

    Natl Groups Don't Listen333467

    Own Issue to Deal w/ Broader352459

    Impossible to Agree on Message241236

    Sheet1

    35.953.8

    46.846.8

    41.352.5

    34.559.7

    35.859.7

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet2

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    Somewhat Often

    Very Often

    %

  • Strong Support for aTax & Budget Campaign90% of respondents say it is time to launch a longer-term offensive campaign on federal tax and budget issues.90%Given limited time and resources and the fact that there are many other important issues, do you agree or disagree that it is time to launch a long-term offensive campaign around federal tax and budget issues?

    Chart29

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 Deflate

    State3436200011.0585

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92

    National6.64

    All Groups6.2

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    0

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    00

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    00

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    2864

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3558

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3060

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3045

    2463

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2961

    2961

    3360

    1777

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    3139

    3045

    2463

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    2516

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    3719

    Somewhat Unimportant

    Not Important

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    &A

    Page &P

    Inflation Adjusted

    Nominal

    In Billions

    Domestic Non-Homeland Security Spending

    0

    0

    In Billions

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security Surplus(FY 2005-2014)

    $2.36 T

    $2.34 T

    00

    Tax Cuts if Made Permanent

    75-Year Shortfall in Social Security

    In Trillions of Dollars

    Bush Tax Cuts vs. Social Security:Present Value of Costs Over 75 Years

    $12.1

    $3.8

  • It is important to identify what we are for, not just against, in a coordinated, long-term approach -- similar to what conservative parties and organizations have done so well. Instead, the non-profit sector is misunderstood by the public, given little to none media attention (other than scandals and disasters), and marginalized as a force in public policy and the public at large.

  • Support Strong by All Groups Organizational Mission90%94%94%95%96%

    Chart3

    35.953.8

    46.846.8

    41.352.5

    34.559.7

    35.859.7

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet1

    MISSION

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Service Providers53.835.96.12.644.389.781

    TA Provider46.846.84.81.6sigbificant17.993.687.2

    Public Education52.541.33.22.417.993.888.2

    Advocacy59.734.55.12.641.294.286.5

    Research59.735.830.71995.591.8

    PRIMARY ACTIVITY

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Recreation37.545.88.34.23.483.370.8

    Religious5046.23.803.796.292.4

    Philanthropy66.726.73.304.393.490.1

    Intntl55.336.82.65.35.492.184.2

    Immigration68.928.92.206.497.895.6

    Women's Issues54.341.32.206.595.693.4

    Arts6230627.19284

    Research58.736.51.61.68.995.292

    Tax/Budget68.8253.11.69.193.889.1

    Dem Bldg68.426.65.1011.29589.9

    Nutrition66.729.81.22.411.996.592.9

    Civil Rights5834.15.72.312.588 respondents92.184.1

    Govt Acctblty64.428.93.31.112.893.388.9

    Environment55375214.2100 respondents9285

    Econ Dvlpmt55.136.44.22.516.891.584.8

    NP Sector48.6405.72.919.988.680

    Disability50.737.38421.38876

    Emplymt5635.34.73.321.391.383.3

    Housing58.834.14.11.224.192.987.6

    Health51.938.37.72.22690.280.3

    Education5633.86.91.930.789.881

    Child, Youth, Families56.135.55.424291.684.2

    Sheet1

    00

    00

    00

    00

    00

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet2

    Sheet3

  • Support Strong by All Groups Primary Organization ActivityThose Primary Activities Listed by 20% of More of Respondents93%92%91%90%90%89%88%

    Chart4

    37.350.7

    4048.6

    33.856

    38.351.9

    35.356

    35.556.1

    34.158.8

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet1

    MISSION

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Service Providers53.835.96.12.644.389.781

    TA Provider46.846.84.81.6sigbificant17.993.687.2

    Public Education52.541.33.22.417.993.888.2

    Advocacy59.734.55.12.641.294.286.5

    Research59.735.830.71995.591.8

    PRIMARY ACTIVITY

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Recreation37.545.88.34.23.483.370.8

    Religious5046.23.803.796.292.4

    Philanthropy66.726.73.304.393.490.1

    Intntl55.336.82.65.35.492.184.2

    Immigration68.928.92.206.497.895.6

    Women's Issues54.341.32.206.595.693.4

    Arts6230627.19284

    Research58.736.51.61.68.995.292

    Tax/Budget68.8253.11.69.193.889.1

    Dem Bldg68.426.65.1011.29589.9

    Nutrition66.729.81.22.411.996.592.9

    Civil Rights5834.15.72.312.588 respondents92.184.1

    Govt Acctblty64.428.93.31.112.893.388.9

    Environment55375214.2100 respondents9285

    Econ Dvlpmt55.136.44.22.516.891.584.8

    Disability50.737.38421.38876

    NP Sector48.6405.72.919.988.680

    Education5633.86.91.930.789.881

    Health51.938.37.72.22690.280.3

    Emplymt5635.34.73.321.391.383.3

    Child, Youth, Families56.135.55.424291.684.2

    Housing58.834.14.11.224.192.987.6

    Sheet1

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet2

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

  • Goals for a CampaignHow important are the following goals to a long-term tax and budget campaign?Tax System that Raises Adequate Revenue for Govt Services and ProgramsResources & Policies for Economic Growth & JobsIdentify & Elevate Domestic Needs & PrioritiesInsure Adequate Funding for Unfunded Federal MandatesCut Regressive Taxes that Hurt Low- & Middle IncomeStop Attack on Role of Govt & Demonstrate Value of Strong Federal GovtRaise Additional Revenue to Address Unmet NeedsCut Govt Spending to Reduce Deficit94%93%90%90%87%75%70%41%

    Chart4

    1777

    3360

    2961

    2961

    2463

    3045

    3139

    2516

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

    Sheet1

    MISSION

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Service Providers53.835.96.12.644.389.781

    TA Provider46.846.84.81.6sigbificant17.993.687.2

    Public Education52.541.33.22.417.993.888.2

    Advocacy59.734.55.12.641.294.286.5

    Research59.735.830.71995.591.8

    PRIMARY ACTIVITY

    Strongly AgreeSomewhat AgreeSomewhat DisagreeStrongly DisagreeOf Total Population% AgreeDiff Btwn Agree & Disagree

    Recreation37.545.88.34.23.483.370.8

    Religious5046.23.803.796.292.4

    Philanthropy66.726.73.304.393.490.1

    Intntl55.336.82.65.35.492.184.2

    Immigration68.928.92.206.497.895.6

    Women's Issues54.341.32.206.595.693.4

    Arts6230627.19284

    Research58.736.51.61.68.995.292

    Tax/Budget68.8253.11.69.193.889.1

    Dem Bldg68.426.65.1011.29589.9

    Nutrition66.729.81.22.411.996.592.9

    Civil Rights5834.15.72.312.588 respondents92.184.1

    Govt Acctblty64.428.93.31.112.893.388.9

    Environment55375214.2100 respondents9285

    Econ Dvlpmt55.136.44.22.516.891.584.8

    Disability50.737.38421.38876

    NP Sector48.6405.72.919.988.680

    Education5633.86.91.930.789.881

    Health51.938.37.72.22690.280.3

    Emplymt5635.34.73.321.391.383.3

    Child, Youth, Families56.135.55.424291.684.2

    Housing58.834.14.11.224.192.987.6

    Somewhat OftenVery OftenTotal

    Grassroots Lobby232346

    Direct Lobby - State251944

    Direct Lobby - Fed211435

    Media - State13922

    Research/Analysis11718

    Media - Fed9615

    Somewhat ImportantVery ImportantTotal

    Tax System Raises Revenue177794

    Econ Growth -- Jobs336093

    Domestic Needs296190

    Fed Mandates296190

    Cut Low & Middle Inc Taxes246387

    Attack on Role of Govt304575

    Address Unmet Needs313970

    Cut Govt Spending251641

    What the major challenges to developing and maintaining a network of national, staet and local groups?

    Somewhat of a ChallengeMajor ChallengeTotal

    Lack Coordination354176

    Leadership324072

    Top Down383169

    Natl Groups Don't Listen333467

    Own Issue to Deal w/ Broader352459

    Impossible to Agree on Message241236

    Sheet1

    35.953.8

    46.846.8

    41.352.5

    34.559.7

    35.859.7

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet2

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    Somewhat Often

    Very Often

    %

    Somewhat Important

    Very Important

    %

  • What Are Some Challenges That Must Be Confronted?

  • Participation May Be a ChallengePOSITIVENEGATIVE90% of respondents say it is time to launch a campaign BUT 49% say they are unlikely to participate.

    Chart1

    -5-33456

    -28-213116

    Somewhat Disagree/Unlikely

    Disagree/No

    Somewhat Agree/Likely

    Strongly Agree/Very Likely

    %

    28

    5

    21

    3

    Sheet1

    Follow Tax and BudgetDomestic Non-Homeland Security

    Somewhat CloselyVery CloselyNominaladj 2000Inflation Adjusteddeflator2003 Deflate2000 Deflate

    State3436200011.0585

    Federal382620011.02341.03429743990.9771350401

    20021.04151.01632261160.9601536246

    2003376355.21965044873761.058510.9447331129

    2004383357.14285714293781.07240.98703841850.9324878777

    2005382351.81433044763721.08580.97485724810.9209799226

    2006381345.70365665553661.10210.96043916160.9073586789

    2007383341.84219921463621.12040.94475187430.8925383792

    2008385337.15736929683571.14190.92696383220.8757334267

    2009387332.16032958543521.16510.90850570770.8582954253

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    3456

    2005-2014

    Bush Tax Cuts2341Tax Cuts if Made Permanent12.1

    Social Security Surplus235775-Year Shortfall in Social Security3.8

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign

    State6.92

    National6.64

    All Groups6.2

    Local5.81

    Regional5.6

    Intl5.16

    Support for a long-term offensive campaign by region

    Somewhat AgreeStrongly Agree

    South Carolina4349

    Chicago3456

    Phoenix2864

    Philadelphia3558

    Seattle3060

    All Areas3456

    Somewhat ImportantVery Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts2516

    Revenue for Unmet Needs3139

    Promote Need for Govt3045

    Cut Regressive Taxes2463

    Funding Fed Mandates2961

    Highlight Domestic Needs2961

    Econ Growth & Jobs3360

    Progressive Taxes w/ Adequate $1777

    Somewhat UnimportantNot Important

    Cut Deficit w/ Spending Cuts3719

    Challenges

    Disagree/NoSomewhat Disagree/UnlikelySomewhat Agree/LikelyStrongly Agree/Very Likely

    Launch Campaign-3-53456

    Participate-21-283116

    Sheet1

    3436

    3826

    Somewhat Closely

    Very Closely

    %

    Sheet2

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    Sheet3

    6.92

    6.64

    6.2

    5.81

    5.6

    5.16

    Intensity(0-10 scale)

    5.2

    5.8

    6.6

    6.9

    4349

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    3456

    3456

    Somewhat Agree

    Strongly Agree

    %

    2864

    3456

    Somewhat A