making programs stand out in today’s master’s degree market...a blueprint for growth making...

A Blueprint for GrowthMaking Programs Stand Out in Today’s Master’s Degree Market

April 20, 2020

©2020 by EAB. All Rights Reserved. eab.com 37129C

2

The National Landscape for Graduate EducationA Brief Overview


3

Where Is There Growth in This Market?

Online Education Anchors Growth in Grad

1) Graduate students include both master’s and doctoral students. 2) Recorded as ‘Distance Education’ in IPEDS data Source: EAB analysis of distance enrollment data from IPEDS Fall

Enrollment Surveys 2012-18, EAB interviews and analysis.

+258KTotal Increase in Online Graduate Students 2013-2018

+6.6%Avg. Annual Growth

0.0M

0.5M

1.0M

1.5M

2.0M

2.5M

3.0M

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

944K

2.04M 1.86M

Exclusively Online Graduate Enrollments

Exclusively Face-to-Face Graduate Enrollments

Mixed Online and Face-to-Face Enrollments

Gra

duat

e En

rollm

ents

Year

221K278K

-179KTotal Decrease in Face-to-Face Graduate Students 2013-2018

-1.8%Avg. Annual Decline

Graduate1 Enrollments 2013-2018: Exclusively, Some, and No Online2 Courses

686K


4

550k

600k

650k

700k

750k

800k

850k

900k

950k

1000k

1050k

1100k

2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024 2028 2032

The Master’s Degree Bubble Has Already BurstLower Expectations for Growth Every Year Since 2013

1) The graph includes a ‘year 0’ for each projection. These ‘year 0s’ (2013, 2016, and 2018) are actual figures, not projections.

Source: NCES Digest of Education Statistics Table 318.10, EAB interviews and analysis.

Master’s Degree Conferrals

Impact of 2008 recession

10-Year Projections

1,032,000conferrals Projected Annual Growth

2014 - 20241

2.8%

922,000conferrals

Projected Annual Growth2017 -20271

1.7%

837,000conferrals

Projected Annual Growth2019 - 20291

0.3%1.7%Actual annual growth, 2013-18

3.2%Projected annual growth, 2013-18


5No Sign Competition Slowing Down

1) Based on EAB review of 36 randomly selected strategic plans representative of different institutional types. 2) Based on interviews with 70 of EAB’s 100 Global Research Partnership partners. Public partners have less

than $200M OpEx; Private partners have less than $150M OpEx. Source: PAE Organizational Benchmarking Survey, National Center for Education Statistics’ Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), EAB interviews and analysis.

Growth Goals Aggressive and Widespread Across Market

New Master’s Program Launches Growing Faster than Conferrals

75%Of university strategic plans list graduate enrollment or adult education as priority initiatives1

56%Of small private and regional public EAB partners list graduate enrollment growth among their top three priorities2

Average gross annual revenue growth goal for Deans of Professional and Adult Education

15%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Perc

enta

ge c

hang

e si

nce

2012 3% annual growth rate,

programs

40K

836K

1% annual growth rate, completions

33K

771K


6Many Will Play … But Few Will Get BigVery Few Institutions Become Online Giants (Or Even Online Mediums)

1) Recorded by IPEDS as exclusively distance enrollments. 2) Bin widths equal 20 enrollments.

Source: EAB analysis of distance enrollment data from IPEDS Fall Enrollment Surveys 2012-18.

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500Total Exclusively Online Graduate Enrollments - Fall 20182

1/2Half of institutions enrolled fewer than 152 online graduate students

= 5 institutions

88% Of institutions enrolled fewer than 1,000 online graduate students

4%Of institutions enrolled more than 2,500 online graduate students (not shown)

Institutions by Total Exclusively Online1 Graduate Enrollments, Fall 2018

2,500+


7Understanding Market Concentration

Source: EAB interviews and analysis.

Market Share of Top 4 Competitors by Industry (Revenue)

89%

63%

6% 5%

WirelessTelecomms

Airlines Restaurants Colleges andUniversit ies

Oligopolies Competitive Markets

Higher Ed is not an Oligopoly, but Still Faces Dominant Market Leaders

• National competition• Large competitors

dominate market• Little room for new

entrants

• Regional and national competition

• Room for new entrants• Still competition from

market leaders

Mass Market Leaders Limit Potential for National Growth

• National marketing reach

• Massive online scale

• Low cost

• Strong regional brand affinity

• Large online and on-ground presence

• Low cost or elite brand

Regional Players Market Leaders

Regional Player Market Leader


8

Searching for a Program: What Prospective Students Tell Us


9

1) Students considering or currently enrolled in graduate programs comprised 69% of all survey respondents.

Research to Support Graduate Program Growth

Why We Conducted This Research

EAB’s Survey of Current and Prospective Adult Learners

To help institutional leaders better understand the perceptions, motivations, and behaviors of today’s adult learners

How We Defined “Adult Learners”Current and prospective students of graduate, undergraduate degree completion, online, and certificate programs1


10Understanding How Adult Learners Think

What motivatesadult learners to apply and enroll?

What prevents interested students from applying?

What factors do adult learners value when choosing programs?

Sample Questions Explored

Four Key Themes That Emerged

1 Adult learners require a return on their education.

2

Adult learners have high expectations as consumers.

3 Adult learners are extremely pragmatic.

4

Adult learners require flexible options.


11Understanding How Adult Learners Think

What motivatesadult learners to apply and enroll?

What prevents interested students from applying?

What factors do adult learnersvalue when choosing programs?

Sample Questions Explored


12

Key Findings and Themes

Adult learners require a return on their education.

Adult learners have high expectations as consumers.

Adult learners are extremely pragmatic.

Adult learners require flexible options.

1 2

3 4

Adult Learner Mindset


13

Responses from Students Without Immediate Plans to Enroll

Cost Is the Top Barrier to Enrollment

Q: What is the primary reason you are not pursuing more education at this time?

Cost of attending39.6%

Current family responsibilities23.1%

Professional/ work-related commitments21.6%

Other9.0%

Required prerequisites5.2%

Past academic performance1.5%

Students Who Are Undecided or Open to Enrolling at Some Point

Students Who Are Not Planning to Enroll in Adult Learner Programs within Two Years

49.6%

29.3%

28.5%

21.9%

12.0%

9.9%

9.9%

2.1%

More affordabletuit ion

Opportunity to earnmore money

More flexibleeducation options

Change in career

No standardized testrequirement

Easier applicationprocess

Other

Nothing wouldchange my plans

Q: What, if anything, would change your plans?


14

Importance of Flexible Options Increases with Age of Student

Especially Appealing to Older Adult Learners

20.0%

42.1%

55.4%

Under 26 26-35 Over 35

Percentage of Prospects Who Considered Online Options by Age

3.07

2.68

2.76

3.66

3.36

3.17

3.97

3.78

3.31

Flexible scheduling

Online courses

Joint or hybrid programs

Under 26 26-35 Over 35

Mean Importance of Flexible/Online Options by Age


15

The Number of Schools Applied to Decreases by Age

Most Adult Learners Are Applying to


16

And Prospective Students Expect the Same from You!

Sources: https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/marketing-resources/micro-moments/how-to-beat-consumer-tune-out-with-useful-content/, https://www.thinkwithgoogle.com/consumer-insights/consumer-immediate-need-mobile-experiences/.

Consumer Brands Setting High Standards in Marketing and Service

The New Normal: Instant, Easy, and Mobile-Optimized

Heightened Expectations Reflected in Consumer Behavior

9%of users will stay on a mobile site or app that doesn’t satisfy their needs (e.g., to find information or navigate quickly)

53%of visits are abandoned if the site takes longer than three seconds to load

3xmore Google searches for businesses “open now” in 2017 than in 2015


17

Robust Online Research Resources Are Key

1) Google higher education search data.

Anticipating Student Intent in Recruitment

32.0%Online research resources, including:• Search engines (15.2%)• The school’s website

(10.8%)• Accreditation/

credentialing websites (5.6%)

• Other school website (.4%)

43.2%Other people, including:• Friends/colleagues (20.4%)• Family member (8.4%)• Alumni/current student (6.8%)• Teacher/professor (2.0%)• Minister/church official (1.6%)

24.8%Other sources, including:• Advertising (4.0%)• School information session (3.6%)• Mail from school (2.0%)• Email from school (1.6%)• Other (13.6%)

Most Students Discover Schools via Online Research or Word of Mouth

of adult learners said online search was the first resource they consulted after being inspired to go back to school1

58%

Online Search Is the Top Resource for Early Research


18

The Type of Student Reaction You Want to Avoid

Why Responsiveness Matters

We were told we would hear back about the status of our applications within 10 business days. When we did not hear I reached out, andwas told I would have to wait for longer.

It was at least a month before I got a response, and by that time I reached out to say I was no longer interested in attending their school.

This was due to the fact that I was accepted elsewhere, felt good about that offer, and felt disrespected by the other school. I did not think this was a good reflection of how they treat students.

Survey Participant


19

Competitive ConsiderationsMaking Your Programs Stand Out


20How Program Design Choices Can Impede Growth

-

-

-

Program offerings are not backed by robust data indicating market demand.

1

Curricular maps and faculty resources are not optimized for growth.

4

Market Demand

Program features are misaligned with adult learners’ preferences and lifestyles.

2 Student Preferences

Program features are not rigorously assessed in comparison to competitors’ offerings.

3 Competitors’ Offerings

Program Scalability

Four Commonly Overlooked Factors

-


21Ensure Your Programs Are Competitive

Degree Name

Does degree name resonate in the marketplace? Do concentrations/specializations increase attractiveness?

Admissions Criteria

Admissions requirements should consider career changers as well as career-enhancers, and make sense when compared to competing programs.

Program Structure

• Credits• Courses• Time to Complete• Starts

• Terms • Prerequisite(s)• Delivery

Top Factors to Consider When Evaluating Your Program

Category Considerations

Student Preferences


22The Golden Triangle: What Students Seek

Affordability

Speed to Completion

Delivery mode, Scheduling, etc.

Affordability

Flexibility

Pricing & Financial Aid

Credit Count& Pre-reqs

Customization, Electives,

Stack-ability

Personal Payoff


23

The Golden Triangle: Taking ActionWhen assessing your curriculum

Mode:

• Online• Hybrid• Face-to-face

Schedule:

• Term length• Courses per term• Session timing

Delivery:

Technology:

• Software and tools• Learning Mgt Sys.• Session timing

Pre-requisites:

• Prior coursework• Specific courses• Pre-modules/tests

Content:

Courses:

• Size of program• Core & electives• Concentrations

Options:

• Stackable• Flexible start date• Flexible course

order

Many components to consider, creating a prioritization plan is critical


24

The Golden Triangle: Taking ActionWhen assessing your policies

Timing:

• Rolling• Flexible entry• ”Tasting course”

Staffing:

• Personal attention• Responsive• Advising handoff

Admissions:

Requirements:

• Selectivity• Test scores• Rec Letters• Are all items used

Benchmark & evaluate regularly

Cost:

Communicate clearly

Consider discounts & scholarships

Harmonization, simplification, and clarification of policies across programs supports the Triangle


25How Program Design Choices Can Impede Growth

-

-

-

Program offerings are not backed by robust data indicating market demand.

1

Curricular maps and faculty resources are not optimized for growth.

4

Market Demand

Program features are misaligned with adult learners’ preferences and lifestyles.

2 Student Preferences

Program features are not rigorously assessed in comparison to competitors’ offerings.

3 Competitors’ Offerings

Program Scalability

Four Commonly Overlooked Factors

-


26

Part-Time Scheduling Accommodates Adult Learners and Financial Aid

Successful Curriculum Models Must Be Scalable

CRSE 1

CRSE2

CRSE 3

CRSE 4

CRSE 7

CRSE 8

CRSE 5

CRSE 6

CRSE 9

CAP

Successful

Scalable

Sustainable

Sample Curriculum Model

Considerations• Does the curriculum model align to program outcomes and sequencing?• Will the model allow for multiple entry points?• How will faculty and instructional resources align to the model?• Can the model be accommodated by the institution's academic calendar?

Program Scalability


27Key Takeaways

1

2

3

Assess opportunities with care and attack them with discipline.

Design programs with an eye to speed, affordability, & flexibility.

Ensure that prospective students, including secret shoppers, will see the merits of your programs relative to the other options they have before them.

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making programs stand out in today’s master’s degree market...a blueprint for growth making...

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