Points of No Return

Mike ShatzkinMaking Information Pay

May 6, 2010

My view: coming change dwarfs recent change

• Ebooks headed for 25% share of new narrative books soon (end of 2012?)

• Total online sales for those books will then exceed brick-and-mortar sales

• Entirely new publishing models enabled (ebook first and POD)

• Disintermediation becomes a real threat• Traditional business will have to shrink fast

Inside the publishing houses

• Ebook first development will occur, then grow, then become dominant

• Brick-and-mortar will shrink gradually, then suddenly: drastic implications for sales and operations

• Ebook royalties of 25% become unsustainable• Single title marketing: for authors and mega-

books only• Consolidation occurs in many forms

How are people reacting to change?Pretty optimistically…

• Most feel fundamental change has happened (31%) or is happening now (45%)

• Most feel their job skills will “match the industry’s future needs” (62% to 20% who don’t think so)

• Half (52%) expect our business to become more profitable

• Of those responding, half think we’ll have more jobs as a result of change, not fewer

Some clouds in the blue sky

• Nearly half (48%) think their companies need to provide “more education”

• Profound change in editorial will blindside many people (a comment: “editing is editing”); only 59% expect “fundamental change” in editorial

• 20% do not think their skills will fit future industry needs

Fun with “buzzwords”

• Big majority (62%) say Twitter is a “fad, soon to pass”(!)

• More than a third (38%) say that about “free as a price point”

• More than a quarter (28%) say that about “crowd sourcing”

• Long term trends: digital marketing, web analytics, publishing in vertical niches (75+%)

Today’s program: before the breakExperts deliver data and insight

• Kelly Gallagher of Bowker: what consumers are saying about change

• David Guenette of Gilbane: the 7 essential systems for publishers

• George Lossius of Publishing Technology: investment decisions in a time of rapid change

• Jabin White of Wolters Kluwer: how change affects the people who are part of it

• Steve Walker of SBS Worldwide (sponsor): supply chain cost savings

Today’s program: after the breakPublishers in the trenches

• John Konczal of Sterling Commerce (sponsor): tools to enable new business models

• Bruce Shaw & Adam Salomone of Harvard Common Press: editors acquiring for a portfolio

• Phil Madans of Hachette: workflow shift from “assembly line” to “collaboration”

• Matt Baldacci of Macmillan: the shift in marketing spending and skills

• Maureen McMahon of Kaplan: connecting, not closing and new hiring criteria for sales