making cooperation work comcec strategy€¦ · making cooperation work selected financial data...
TRANSCRIPT
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1st Meeting of COMCEC Finance Working Group
Fırat YILMAZ
December 12th, 2013
Ankara, Turkey
Making Cooperation Work
For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK
2013
COMCEC STRATEGY
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2For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
OUTLINE
Recent Financial Developments in the Global
Financial System
Financial Outlook of COMCEC Region
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3For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
RECENT FINANCIAL
DEVELOPMENTS
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4For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Non-stop quantitative
easing
Persistent low yields
Buoyancy in US
economy
High asset
prices until
May 2013
A signal of tapering
asset purchase program
Serious capital
outflows with a
slowing growth
Recent Financial Developments
Since 2008
The FED’s Signal
What happened in
May 2013
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5For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Recent Financial Developments
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6For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Real GDP Growth Rates
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Advanced economies Emerging market and developing economies OIC World
Source: Calculated by using IMF Database
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7For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Souce: IMF World Economic Outlook
Economic Growth Rates (Forecast)
3,6%
4,1%
2,9%
3,6%
2,7%2,9%3,1%3,3%3,5%3,7%3,9%4,1%4,3%
2013 2014
Global Growth Rate (%)
2012 Sept Forecast 2013 Sept Forecast
0,2%
1,2%
-0,4%
1,0%
-1,0%
-0,5%
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2013 2014
Euro Area Growth Rate (%)
2012 Sept Forecast 2013 Sept Forecast
5,6%
5,9%
4,5%
5,1%
4,3%4,5%4,7%4,9%5,1%5,3%5,5%5,7%5,9%6,1%
2013 2014
Developing Countries Growth Rate (%)
2012 Sept Forecast 2013 Sept Forecast
2,1%
2,9%
1,6%
2,6%
1,4%1,6%1,8%2,0%2,2%2,4%2,6%2,8%3,0%3,2%
2013 2014
U.S.A. Growth Rate (%)
2012 Sept Forecast 2013 Sept Forecast
7
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8For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL OUTLOOK OF
COMCEC REGION
8
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9For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
• Measures the size of financial institutions and markets
FINANCIAL ACCESS
• Measures to the degree to which individuals can use financial institutions and markets
FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY
• Measures the efficiency of financial institutions and markets in providing financial services
FINANCIAL STABILITY
• Measures the stability of financial institutions and markets
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10For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Selected Financial Data
FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL MARKETS
DEPTH Private Sector Credit to GDP Deposits to GDP
Stock Market Capitalization Stock Traded to GDP
ACCESS Account per Thousand Adults Bank Branches per 100.000 adults Adults with an Account at a Formal Financial Institution to Total Adults % Adults Saving at a Financial Institution in the Past Year to Total Adults %
5 Bank Asset Concentration
EFFICIENCY Net Interest Margin Lending Deposit Spread (%) Non-interest Income to Total Income
Stock Market Turnover Ratio
STABILITY Z-Score Capital Adequacy Ratios Non-Performing loans (%)
Volatility of Stock Price
Source: World Bank
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11For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Categorization Of COMCEC Member States
Categories Countries
Number of
Countries
OIC-Low income group
US$ 1035 or less
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Benin, Burkina Faso, Chad, Comoros, The Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Kyrgyz Republic, Mali, Mozambique, Niger, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Tajikistan, Togo, Uganda
19
OIC-Lower middle income group US$ 1,036 to US$ 4,085
Cameroon, Côte d'Ivoire, Djibouti, Egypt, Guyana, Indonesia, Mauritania, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Senegal, Sudan, Syria, Uzbekistan, Yemen
15
OIC-Upper middle income
US$ 4,086 to US$12,615
Albania, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Gabon, Islamic Republic of Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, Libya, Malaysia, Maldives, Suriname, Tunisia, Turkey, Turkmenistan
16
OIC-High income group US$ 12,616 or more
Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates
7
Source: World Bank
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12For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
FINANCIAL ACCESS
FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY
FINANCIAL STABILITY
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13For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
FINANCIAL ACCESS
FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY
FINANCIAL STABILITY
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14For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
Private Credit to GDP Ratio
Bank Deposits to GDP Ratio
Stock Market Capitalization toGDP
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15For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Private Credit to GDP Ratios
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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16For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Bank Deposits to GDP Ratios
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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17For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Stock Market Capitalization to GDP
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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18For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Analysis of Financial Depth
AFG
ALB
DZA
AZE
BGD
BEN
BRN
CMR
TCD
COM
CIV
EGY
GAB
GUY
IDN
JOR
KAZ
KWT
LBN
MYS
MDV
MLI
MAR
MOZNGA
OMN
PAK
QAT
SAU
SEN
SLE
GMB
TUN
TUR
UGA
UAE
YEM
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 20 40 60 80 100
Private credit to GDP (%)
Ban
k d
ep
osi
ts t
o G
DP
(%
)
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
2011
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19For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
FINANCIAL ACCESS
FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY
FINANCIAL STABILITY
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20For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL ACCESS
Bank Accounts per 1,000Adults
Bank Branches per100,000 Adults
Adults Saving at aFinancial Institution
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21For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
Bank Accounts per 1,000 Adults
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22For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Bank Branches per 100,000 Adults
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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23For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Adults Saving at a Financial Institution to Total Adults
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2011
![Page 24: Making Cooperation Work COMCEC STRATEGY€¦ · Making Cooperation Work Selected Financial Data FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPTH Private Sector Credit to GDP Deposits](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060421/5f17ff2305f8a35ea2136c7a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
24For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
ALB
DZA
AZE
BGD
CMR
TCD
GAB
GIN
IDN
IRN
JOR
KAZ
KWT
KGZ
LBN
MYS
MARMOZ
NGA
OMN
PAK
QAT
SAU
SENSDN
TJK
TUN
TUR
UGA
UAE
UZB
YEM0,0%
20,0%
40,0%
60,0%
80,0%
100,0%
120,0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
Ad
ult
s w
ith
an
acc
ou
nt
at a
fo
rmal
fin
. in
st. t
o t
ota
l ad
ult
s (%
)
Bank branches per 100,000 adults Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
Analysis of Financial Access
2011
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25For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
Analysis of Financial Depth and Access
AFG
ALB
DZA
AZE
BGD
BEN
BFA
CMR
TCD
COM
EGY
GABGIN
IDN
JOR
KAZ
KWT
LBN
MYS
MLI
MRT
MAR
MOZ
NER
NGA
OMN
PAK
QAT
SAU
SEN
SLE
TUN
TUR
UGA
UAE
YEM
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%
Ban
k d
ep
osit
s t
o G
DP
(%
)
Adults saving at a fin. inst. in the past year to total adults (%)
2011
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26For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
FINANCIAL ACCESS
FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY
FINANCIAL STABILITY
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27For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL EFICIENCY
Net Interest Margin
Stock Market Turnover Ratio
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28For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Net Interest Margin Rates
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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29For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Stock Market Turnover Ratio, 2011
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
BGD (LIG)
CIV (LMIG)
EGY (LMIG)
IDN (LMIG)
JOR (UMIG)
KAZ (UMIG)
KWT (HIGH)
KGZ (LIG)
LBN (UMIG)
MYS (UMIG)
MAR (LMIG)
NGA (LMIG)
OMN (HIGH)
PAK (LMIG)
QAT (HIGH)
SAU (HIGH)
TUN (UMIG)
UAE (HIGH)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Sto
ck
ma
rke
t tu
rno
ve
r ra
tio
(va
lue
tra
de
d/c
ap
ita
lizati
on
) (%
)
2011
![Page 30: Making Cooperation Work COMCEC STRATEGY€¦ · Making Cooperation Work Selected Financial Data FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPTH Private Sector Credit to GDP Deposits](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060421/5f17ff2305f8a35ea2136c7a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
30For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL DEPTH
FINANCIAL ACCESS
FINANCIAL EFFICIENCY
FINANCIAL STABILITY
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31For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
FINANCIAL STABILITY
Z-Score
Non-Performing Loans
Capital Adequacy Ratio
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32For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Z-Scores
0
5
10
15
20
25
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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33For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
OIC-LIG OIC-LMIG OIC-UMIG OIC-HIGH WORLD Average OIC Average
2009
2010
2011
Non-Performing Loans (NPL)
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
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34For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
Capital Adequacy Ratios
ALB (UMIG)
EGY (LMIG)
GAB (UMIG)
IDN (UMIG)
JOR (UMIG)KAZ (UMIG)
KGZ (LIG)
LBN (UMIG)
MYS (UMIG)
MOZ (LIG)
NGA (LMIG)
OMN (HIGH)
PAK (LMIG)
SAU (HIGH)
SLE (LIG)
TJK (LIG)
TUR (UMIG)
UGA (LIG)
UAE (HIGH)
UZB (LMIG)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Cap
ital
Ad
eq
uac
y R
atio
s (%
)
2011
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35For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Scatter Plot Analysis of Financial Stability and Depth
Source: Calculated by using World Bank Database
ALB
EGY
GAB
IDN
JOR
KAZ
LBN
MYS
MAR
MOZ NGA
OMN
PAK
SLE
TUR
UGA
UAE
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Pri
vate
cre
dit
by d
ep
osit
mo
ney b
an
ks a
nd
oth
er
fin
an
cia
l in
sti
tuti
on
s t
o G
DP
(%
)
Bank non-performing loans to gross loans (%)
2011
![Page 36: Making Cooperation Work COMCEC STRATEGY€¦ · Making Cooperation Work Selected Financial Data FINANCIAL INSTITUTION FINANCIAL MARKETS DEPTH Private Sector Credit to GDP Deposits](https://reader033.vdocuments.us/reader033/viewer/2022060421/5f17ff2305f8a35ea2136c7a/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
36For Building an Interdependent Islamic World
COMCEC STRATEGYMaking Cooperation Work
Overall AssessmentFinancial Depth Financial Access Financial Efficiency Financial Stability
OIC-LIG • Limited private
credit opportunities
• Underdeveloped
banking sector and
security market
• Lower access to
financial services
• Low saving rates
• Higher
transaction/intermediation
costs
• Limited liquidity in the
security market
• Higher NPLs
• Higher probability
of insolvency
OIC-LMIG • Underdeveloped
banking sector and
security market
• Lower access to
financial services
• Lower saving
rates
• Transaction/intermediation
costs in line with world
average
• Higher NPLs
OIC-UMIG • Better developed
banking sector and
security market
• Lower saving
rates
• Usually low volumes of
stock market in many
countries
• Higher NPLs
OIC-HIGH • Better developed
banking sector and
security market
• Better access to
financial services
• Higher saving
rates
• Usually low volumes of
stock market in many
countries
• Lower transaction/
intermediation cost
• More resilient to
shocks
• Lower NPLs
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Thank You
Making Cooperation Work
For Building an Interdependent Islamic WorldCOMCEC STRATEGY
December 12th, 2013
Ankara, Turkey
1st Meeting of COMCEC Finance Working Group