Majoritarian democracy under stress?

Marco Valbruzzi – EUI

The control without immediate sanction in parliamentary and semipresidential systems: comparative perspective

Department of Political Sciences - Sapienza University

May 24-25, 2016 - Rome

New challenges for majoritarian democracies

• Re-emergence of anti-system parties

• Weakening of mainstream, traditional, established parties

• Party-system de-structuring

• External policy constraints (EU, Eurozone, financial markets, etc.)

Re-emergence of anti-system parties in W. Europe0

51

01

5S

eat-

sha

re o

f a

nti-s

yste

m p

art

ies

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Ideological anti-system parties Functional anti-system parties

Largest parties losing their majority bent?

36

37

38

39

40

41

Se

at-

sha

re o

f th

e la

rgest

part

y

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

The fate of mainstream parties in W. Europe3

03

23

43

6

Se

at-

sha

re (

%)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Main center-right parties Social-democratic parties

What is Left?

05

10

15

20

25

30

35

Se

at-

sha

re (

%)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Socialist Communist New Left

The strength of established parties in W. Europe

10097.6

85.7

80.8

71.4

02

04

06

08

01

00

Se

at-

sha

re o

f e

sta

blis

hed

part

ies (

me

an

)

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Party-system fragmentation in Western Europe

3.6

3.8

44

.24

.44

.6

Eff

ect

ive n

um

be

r o

f pa

rlia

me

nta

ry p

art

ies

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Electoral volatility in Western Europe

81

01

21

41

61

8

Ele

cto

ral vo

latilit

y (

Pe

de

rse

n's

ind

ex

0-1

00

)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

The age of West European party systems

67.4

61.157.4

54.752.5

47.244.9 43.9 42.7 41.9

36.7 36.434.8 33.2 31.9

26.824.5

19.4

6.5

02

04

06

08

0

Ave

rag

e a

ge o

f th

e p

art

y sys

tem

(ye

ars

)

Un

ited

Kin

gd

om

Norw

ay

Sw

ed

en

De

nm

ark

Be

lgiu

m

Germ

an

y

Fin

land

Au

str

ia

Irela

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Luxe

mbo

urg

Icela

nd

Fra

nce V

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Ita

ly I

Sp

ain

Gre

ece

Fra

nce

IV

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ita

lia II

The cost of governing in Western Europe

-10

-8-6

-4-2

0

Ele

cto

ral pe

rfo

rma

nce o

f ru

ling

pa

rtie

s (

%)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Building (artificially) the parliamentary majority

96.2

3.8

81.1

18.9

97.4

2.6

93.2

6.8

51.9

48.1

76.9

23.1

15.8

84.2

100

42.3

57.7

70.8

29.2

95

5

95.8

4.2

64.5

35.5

55.6

44.4

58.3

41.7

86.7

13.3

89

2

02

04

06

08

01

00

Pe

rcen

t

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

Den

mark

Fin

land

Fra

nce

Germ

any

Gre

ece

Icela

nd

Irela

nd

Ita

ly

Luxe

mbo

urg

Neth

erla

nd

s

Norw

ay

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

Unite

d K

ingd

om

Manufactured majority

No Yes

Building (artificially) the parliamentary majority

80.6

19.4

71.4

28.6

80.3

19.7

85.3

14.7

76.9

23.1

63.1

36.9

54.2

45.8

70.6

29.4

02

04

06

08

01

00

Pe

rce

nt

1940s 1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s

Manufactured Majority

No Yes

Majority bonus

16.8

10.9

9.2 8.8

6.4

4.74.2 4.1 4.1 3.8 3.5 3.2 2.9

2.41.9

1.3 0.9

05

10

15

20

Ele

cto

ral bo

nu

s (%

)

Fra

nce

Unite

d K

ingd

om

Gre

ece

Sp

ain

Po

rtu

ga

l

Luxe

mbo

urg

Ita

ly

Norw

ay

Ire

lan

d

Be

lgiu

m

Germ

any

Fin

land

Au

stri

a

Icela

nd

Neth

erla

nd

s

Sw

ed

en

Den

mark

Majority bonus: trend over time in W. Europe

34

56

7

Ma

jority

bon

us

(%)

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

The evolution of government alternation in W. Europe

60

50

40

30

20

10

Pe

rcen

tage

of ch

ang

es

in g

ove

rmen

t

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 20151950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Potential alternation Actual alternation

Policy space at the national (unconstrained) level

A B

External constraints and the viable policy space

A B

Party strategies under (fiscal) adjustment

• Range of policies to choose from severely limited

• Adjustment raises the electoral cost of governing

• Office becomes less attractive

• Blame avoidance strategies for ‘responsible’ parties

• ‘Responsive’ parties: representing but not governing

Majoritarian democracies out-of-date?

• Change of government ≠ change of policy (‘age of austerity’, T.I.N.A. trap)

• Trade-off between national responsiveness, supra-national responsibility, and national electoral accountability

• ‘Rotation of parties in office risks becoming the recycling of failures’ (Rose 2014)

• Repeated failure of mainstream parties popular frustration

• Shortfall of electoral accountability in the EU

Solution for the future: menu of options

Strengthening (artificially) majoritarian institutions at the national level

Neo-parliamentarism and majority-assuring electoral systems

• Majoritarian principle at the supra-national (EU? Eurozone?) level

• ‘Caretaker national administration’ + consensus politics (Grand coalitions et similia)

Citizen as referee… but in which league?