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Major Trends in theWorld Coffee Market
2nd Moscow International Coffee ForumMoscow, Russia
8 F b 2010
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
8 February 2010
Néstor Osorio
Executive Director
ICO composite indicator price Monthly: January 2000 to January 2010
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140
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US
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International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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ICO group indicator pricesDaily: 1 October 2008 to 29 January 2010
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International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Colombian Milds Other Milds Brazilian Naturals Robustas
World ProductionCrop years 2000 to 2009
113.4
122.6
115.9
111 2
129.1
118.9
128.1123.0-125.0
120
140
107.9104.7
111.2
60
80
100
mil
lion
bag
s
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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20
40
2000/01 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09* 2009/10*
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Total production in 2008/09
Africa11% Asia&Oceania
13%Colombia
7%
Vietnam14%
7%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Central America + Mexico
14%South America4%
Brazil37%
Production by type of coffee Crop year 2008/09
Robusta49.539%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Arabica78.661%
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Production: 10 leading producers 2008/09 (Volume in 000 bags - % of world production)
Brazil 45 992 36.8
Vietnam 18 500 14.4
Indonesia 9 350 7.5
Colombia 8 664 6.9
Mexico 4 650 3.7
India 4 372 3.5
Ethiopia 4 350 3 5
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Ethiopia 4 350 3.5
Peru 3 872 3.1
Guatemala 3 785 3.0
Uganda 3 200 2.6
Total exports to all destinationsCalendar years 2000 to 2009
89.6 90.988.8
91.1
87 6
92.3
96.6 97.794.7
90
100
110
88.886.4 87.6
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mil
lion
bag
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10
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30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
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Value of coffee exportsCalendar years 2000 to 2009*
15.316
18
8.2
5 4 5.6
6.9
9.3
10.8
12.8
13.6
6
8
10
12
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billi
on U
S do
llars
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
5.4 5.2
0
2
4
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009*
World consumption Calendar years 2000 to 2009
112 8
118.5 119.0122.6
127.1130.0 132.0
120
140
104.7109.0 110.5
112.8
60
80
100
mill
ion
bags
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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20
40
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008* 2009*
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Estimated consumption in 2008: 10 leading markets by volume
(in million 60-kg bags)
USA 21.7
Brazil 17.9
Germany 9.6
Japan 7.1
Italy 5.9
France 5.1
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Russian Federation 3.7
Spain 3.5
Indonesia 3.3
United Kingdom 3.1
Consumption per capita: top 10 leading markets by volume
(in kg (green equivalent) per year)
Finland 12.6
Switzerland 9.1
Norway 9.0
Sweden 8.3
Iceland 8.3
Denmark 7.7
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Germany 7.0
Estonia 6.9
Austria 6.5
Bosnia & Herzegovina 6.2
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World consumption in 2008(in million 60-kg bags)
Africa6.95% Asia&Oceania
20.115%15%
Central America + Mexico
4.84%
Europe50.139%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
North America25.820%
South America22.217%
World coffee consumption Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
A l2000 2008*
Annual growth (%)
Traditional markets 63 377 68 584 0.88
Producing countries 25 604 35 855 3.81
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53
WORLD TOTAL 104 725 130 004 2.43
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World Coffee Consumption: Traditional markets Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
A l2000 2008*
Annual growth
Total 63 377 68 584 0.88European Community 38 005 39 867 0.53
Germany 8 770 9 554 0.96Italy 5 149 5 937 1.60France 5 402 5 154 -0.52
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Spain 2 991 3 485 1.71United Kingdom 2 342 3 067 3.04
USA 18 746 21 652 1.61Japan 6 626 7 065 0.72
World coffee consumption: Producing countries Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
2000 2008*
Annual growth
(%)Total 25 604 35 855 3.81Brazil 13 075 17 526 3.31Indonesia 1 664 3 333 8.03Mexico 1 189 2 200 7.08
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Ethiopia 1 642 1 833 1.23India 938 1 518 5.50Others 7 098 9 444 3.22
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World coffee consumption: Emerging markets Evolution 2000 – 2008
(in thousand 60-kg bags)
Annual growth
(%)
Emerging markets 15 744 25 565 5.53
Russian Federation 1 863 3 716 7.97
Algeria 1 779 2 118 1.96
Ukraine 179 1 733 28.71
K R bli f 1 246 1 665 3 28
2000 2008*
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Korea, Republic of 1 246 1 665 3.28
Australia 832 1 145 3.61
China* 859 940 1.01
Others 8 986 14 248 5.26
Consumption in the Russian FederationCalendar years 2000 to 2008
3 6
4.1
3.74.0
4.5
1.9
3.0
3.43.6
3.13.2 3.3
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
mill
ion
bags
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
0.0
0.5
1.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Main origins of the coffee imported by the Russian Federation in 2008
Brazil20.3%
Others20.3%
India14.0%
Spain3.4%
Indonesia3.3%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Germany10.5%
Vietnam9.9%
Colombia5.5%
Ecuador5.0%
Switzerland3.9%
Poland3.8%
Consumption in UkraineCalendar years 2000 to 2008
1.731.8
2.0
0.65
0.74
1.020.97
1.06
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
mill
ion
bags
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
0.180.23
0.44
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
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Main origins of the coffee imported by Ukraine in 2008
Germany28.7%Singapore
3.5%
Ecuador2.7%
Austria1.9%
Others8.6%
Poland6.7%
Colombia4.1%
Russian Federation3.8%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Brazil21.9%
India9.3%
France8.8%
Consumption in Estonia, Latvia and LithuaniaCalendar years 2000 to 2008
500
600
480 8 482 3
561.2
161.8 149.8 145.0158.6
155.0144.2
180.8
130 9
115.1
173.2204.3 208.3 173.1
197.3 193.4
213.4
230.1203.8
200
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000
bags
432.4
461.0 464.1446.0
480.8 482.3462.1
472.8
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
97.3 106.9 110.8 114.4 128.5 144.7166.9
101.1
153.9
130.9
0
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Estonia Latvia Lithuania
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Main origins of the coffee imported by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in 2008
Germany16.1%
Others24.7%
Finland16.0%
Colombia3.6%
Vietnam3.5%
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
Spain8.9%
Poland7.0%Brazil
5.8%
Lithuania5.7%
Denmark4.4%
Sweden4.2%
Supply and demand projections2010 to 2020
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mil
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International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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Total production Total consumption Production trend High 2.4% Consumption 2% Low 1.5%
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World Coffee ConferenceGuatemala, 26-28 February 2010
International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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International Coffee Organization - www.ico.org
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