major transitions in biosphere and anthroposphere€¦ · major transitions in evolution i....

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Wolfgang Lucht, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

Major Transitions inBiosphere and Anthroposphere

We were one of the primates:• ~ 100.000 individuals living in groups• restricted range: E and S Africa

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How did we get here?Where do we (and everything else) go next?

This lecture is an attempt to look at part of the big picture

This is the Aperitif Talk, after all …

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"For the purposes of this seminar, let us define ecology as the study of the Universe.“Evelyn Hutchinson (1903-1991)


“Only then will we perceive the dignity of our science,when all the riches of nature and its great creatorunfold themselves in our inner senses.“Georg Forster, 1794


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So: Stand Back!This is the Aperitif Talk, after all …

OK!This is the Aperitif Talk, after all …

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How did we get here?

Upper Paleolithic Transition

100.000 years ago (Africa)35.000 years ago (Europe)

2.500.000Years

IndustrialTransition

250 years ago

5.000 Years

NeolithicTransition5.000 years ago(Europe)

30.000Years

SustainabilityTransition

100 Years

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July 2007

Global Climate Change

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Imag

es ©

Rom

an's

Tra

vel W

ebsi

te

Global Land Use Change

Who are we?

Who do wewant to be?

Creation

Biodiversity

Global Change

Sustainability

What are thelimitations?

What kind ofnature do wewant (need)?

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Looking at the Change … Some Questions

Is planet-transforming life „evolution run wild“ or „evolution at work“?Is intelligent life an unavoidable product of evolution?

Image: David A. Aguilar (CfA)

A real enigmaEarth formation & early bombardement

4.85-3.8 GaFirst (indirect) evidence of life

3.8-3.5 Ga

Stromatolite, Australia, 3.5 bn yr

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Basic principle of studying earth-like planets („How to draw conclusions from a sample the size of 1“):

• Earth is typical conclusions can be drawn about earth-like planets• or … Earth is untypical not much can be said at all

All research rests (must rest) on the assumption that Earth is typical.

Or:Earth is an extraodinary example of great luck.

A conclusion?Life is „easy“ / Inevitable on an earth-like planet.

(We have no idea why.) Life is part of a planetary programme.

Follow-up variations 1:• Life is „hard“ and Earth a lucky place• Life is „easy“ and earth-like conditions abound• Life is „easy“ and earth-like conditions are rare

… if Earth is typical … Are humans and global change then also typical/inevitable?

Follow-up variations 2:• Once life exists, its evolution is wide open

(S.J. Gould: „no re-running of the tape“)• Once life exists, there aren‘t that many

(biochemical) ways of advancing it through evolution (S. Conway Morris: „evolution leads to human-like forms, but that tape runs very rarely among planets“)

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How long does it take for intelligent life to evolve?… let‘s look at an example (actually, the only example we have):

which means: TE ~ TP (for Earth)Since TE (biochemistry) is mostly independent of TP (geology, nuclear physics), this is an astounding and unlikely coincidence!

What can generally be concluded for Earth-like planets?

Since TE ~ TP is not likely,TE « TP … but then TE ~ TP (for Earth) is unlikely

or: TE » TP … then TE ~ TP (for Earth) is quite possible

• Time to evolve intelligence TE ~ 4 Ga• Lifespan of the planet (central star) TP ~ 10 Ga

IF TE » TP , that is, intelligence is slow to evolve:

How many major („hard“, unlikely) transitions in evolutionare required to arrive at intelligence (humans)?

!)(),;(

ktekNtP

kt λλλ−

==Poisson statistics:Probability for k rare events happening (at small rates λ) after a long period t:

teNtP λλ −−=> 1),0;(

teNtP λλ −== ),0;(Probability of no event at time t:

So: Probability for at least 1 event at t:

i

Tt

i TtetP i ≅−=

−

1)(

i-th Major Transition:λ ~ 1/Ti , where Ti is the typical (very large) time for such a transition to occur; then the pobability that an i-th rare (difficult, „major“) transition happens at time t is:

where Ti » TB, the lifespan ofthe biosphere, or TP (as TP ~ TB).

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i

Tt

i TtetP i ≅−=

−

1)(

∏=

=n

i in T

ttP1

)(

Simplifying assumption: statistical independence of major transitions (an optimistic assumption!); then n (improbable) major transitions occur with probability:

n

Bn T

ttP ⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛=)(

… in the actual case of Earth, humans have appeared within the lifetime of the biosphere TB, after n major transitions, so:

0,000,100,200,300,400,500,600,70

00,

5 11,

5 22,

5 33,

5 4

4,5 5

5,5 6

Time (Billion Years)

Pro

babi

lity Pi(t; Ti=7)

P(t; n=3)P(t; n=5)P(t; n=10)

after Carter, 1983

nB

n

Bn tPTPt

TttP /1)()()( =⇒⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛=

1+=

nnTt B

1001

11/11

1/11/1

0

1/1

+=

⎥⎥⎦

⎤

⎢⎢⎣

⎡⎟⎟⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛==−⎟⎟

⎠

⎞⎜⎜⎝

⎛==

+=⎥⎦

⎤⎢⎣⎡

+=

++

+

nnT

TTt

TT

Tt

nnTP

nT B

n

BB

n

B

B

BB

Tn

B

B

Expectance value for the time of the n-th major transition (to humans):

after Carter, 1973

∫ ∫ ===B BT T

nB dPPTdPPtt

0 0

/1)(

So: expectance value for the time of the n-th major transition(e.g. T0 = 4 Ga, time for the transition to intelligence):

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1+=−

nTtT B

B

Then: Time left for the future evolution of the biosphere (lifespan TB) after the appearance of humans:

after Carter, 1973

1+=

nnTt B

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1 3 5 7 9 20 40 60 80 100

Number of major transitions

Tim

e (B

illio

n Ye

ars)

Time to transition Time left (TB=5 Bn Yrs)

!!1011,100!!50

5,100)(!!4

4,5..

GaTGatTnor

MatTGaTnor

humanston

GatGaBTge

B

B

B

B

=⇒=−=

=−⇒==

=⇒

==

today

remaining time

Number of major transitionto humans: ~ 4!

)(!!41,4,5 humanstonGatTGatGaBT B =⇒=−==

Contrary to expectations, the number of major transitions to humans is small! … n<10!

The assumptions made correspond well to knowlegde:

Prokaryotes

Eucaryotes

Complex Life

GatTGat

B 14=−

=

von Bloh et al., GRL, 2002

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John Maynard Smith

(1920- 2004)

EörsSzathmáry

(1959)

Major Transitions in Evolution


I. Reproducing molecules → Populations of molecules in protocells

II. Independent replicators → Chromosomes

III. RNA as gene and enzyme → DNA genes and protein enzymes

IV. Bacterial cells (prokaryotes) → Cells with nuclei and organelles (eukaryotes)

V. Asexual clones → Sexual populations

VI. Single-celled organisms → Animals, plants, and fungi

VII. Solitary individuals → Colonies with non-reproductive casts (ants, bees)

VIII. Primate societies → Human societies (language)

+Az

m P b

Slide: A. Schibalski, Potsdam, 2008

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I. Reproducing molecules → Populations of molecules in protocells

II. Independent replicators → Chromosomes

III. RNA as gene and enzyme → DNA genes and protein enzymes

IV. Bacterial cells (prokaryotes) → Cells with nuclei and organelles (eukaryotes)

V. Asexual clones → Sexual populations

VI. Single-celled organisms → Animals, plants, and fungi

VII. Solitary individuals → Colonies with non-reproductive casts (ants, bees)

VIII. Primate societies → Human societies (language)

Slide: A. Schibalski, Potsdam, 2008

Beginning ofComplex Life

Beginning ofAnthropoceneBeginning

of Life

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Life has not always been what it is today.

Unicellular soupto firstsoft-bodied animals.

Then the plant cameand invaded that land.

And thevertebratesappeared, some of themgot really big!

Geosphere-Biosphere Co-Evolution

Geosphere

Biosphere

Lenton et al., Nature, 2004

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Geosphere

Biosphere

And then something happened


Geosphere

Biosphere

And then anothersomething happened

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Geosphere

Biosphere

And then something really happened!

Genetic

Epigenetic

Behavioural

Symbolic

Information Flow in the Biosphere

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BiosphereGeosphere

Anthroposphere

From Co-Evolution into the Anthropocene

Geosphere

Biosphere

BiosphereGeosphere

Anthroposphere

Vegetation Effectson ClimateBioclimatic

Effects

From Co-Evolution into the Anthropocene

Geosphere

Biosphere

ClimateChangeImpacts

ClimateChange

HumanLand Use

Degradation

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From Co-Evolution to Self-Evolution

Geosphere

Biosphere

The Challenge:Emergence of Conscious Global Action

BiosphereGeosphere

Anthroposphere

Venus:too hottoo dry

Mars:too coldtoo dry

State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

our locationtoday

stone age

beginning of theAnthropocene

social collapse

physical collapse

sustainability transition

climatepolicies

accessibledomain

What are possible paths in

Earth System Phase Space?

habitable zone

Building on HJ Schellnhuber, Nature, 1999

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State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

our locationtoday

social collapse

physical collapse


inaccessibledomain

greenprogress

inaccessibledomain

climatepoliciesclimatepolicies



State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

Damages Collapse

physical collapse


climatepolicies

How do we find safe passage through the straights?

?

?

?

?

?

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Plotting a future course for the Earth System

• Good Navigation Charts( Theory-Based Models)

Requiredto avoid cliffs & narrows



State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

inaccessibledomain

inaccessibledomain

Damages Collapse

inaccessibledomain

How do we find safe passage through the straights?(1) Scanning what is ahead: Theory-Based Modelling

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• Constant Observationfrom the Crow‘s Nest( Earth Observations)



State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

inaccessibledomain

inaccessibledomain

Damages Collapse

inaccessibledomain

How do we find safe passage through the straights?(1) Scanning what is ahead: Theory-Based Modelling(2) Checking on Reality: Earth System Observation

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Sea Level Rise

Is climate changingfaster than projected?




• Constant Observationfrom the Crow‘s Nest( Earth Observations)

• Be prepared! ( Expect Surprises)

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State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

inaccessibledomain

inaccessibledomain

Damages Collapse

inaccessibledomain

Tipping Points in the Earth System

Lenton et al., PNAS, 2008

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State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

our locationtoday

stone age

beginning of theAnthropocene

social collapse

physical collapse


climate policies

inaccessibledomain

inaccessibledomain

inaccessibledomain

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State of Nature

Stat

e of

Soc

iety

What are the variables on this dimension?

Wha

t are

the

varia

bles

on

this

dim

ensi

on?

How quickly and how strongly can paths be bent?(How much can the dimensions be decoupled?)

Will there be abrupt transitions?

Theo

ries o

f Soc

ietal

Develo

pmen

t/Fail

ure

Theories of Society-

Environment Co-Evolution

Which institutional systems are needed?

What is the role of science?

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May 2004

October 2006

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April 2006 März 2006

SPIEGEL44/1986

SPIEGEL 19/2007

SPIEGEL 45/2006

SPIEGEL14/2004

30 October 2006 2 February 20076 April 20074 May 2007

UN IPCC Climate Report

Costs of Climate ChangeBenefits of Avoidance

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12 November 2007Nobel Peace Prize

IPCC(Rajendra Pachauri)

Al Gore

Scenario: O. Edenhofer and team, PIK, 2007

2000

10

5

15

20

25

30

Emis

sion

s G

tC/y

ear

02050 2100

The Mitigation Challenge: Bridging the Emissions Gap

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2000

10

5

15

20

25

30Em

issi

ons

GtC

/yea

r

02050 2100

Growth: the current paradigm behind the debate

The Answer is:Remodel

the world – a lot more than now

The Question is:What will we do withall that energy?

present level

Metabolic Effects of Industrialisation

Industrialisation is a revolution in the socioeconomic metabolism and the structure of society.

Source: M. Fischer-Kowalski, iff Vienna

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Human Appropriation ofPhotosynthetic Production

Haberl et al.,PNAS 104, 2007

altered land surfaces – 6.3 GtC/yrharvest – 8.2 GtC/yr

fires – 1.1 GtC/yrbackflows + 2.2 GtC/yr

Human interference and harvest:= 23.8% of Natural Net Primary Production

Where do we (and everything else) go next?

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Quelle (oben): HJ Schellnhuber, Symposium „Global Sustainabilty – A Nobel Cause“, Potsdam, 9 Okt 2007Quelle (unten): W. Lucht, PIK

ZukunftVergangenheit

Genetic to Nongenetic Information Transmission; Synaptic to Electronic Information Processing

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C. Darkin / Alamy / Nature 2005

But: Gene manipulation will probably have a larger, longer-lasting effect on the biosphere!

Maschines & Cyborgs: The next stage of evolution?Autoevolution of the Biosphere?Darwin: Culture is Autoevolution

We can• adapt to nature (green movement)• adapt nature to us (global change, terraforming)• detach from nature (dematerialisation)

Some current public fantasiesabout the next phase

The Question Remains:Are there new ways forward?

Or will we suffer through collapse of the current ways?

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A core question:

What will we do with our freedom?How do we deal with our lack of freedom?

What is needed:

New cosmologies of the place of humans in the world,• in tune with the scientific knowledge• looking at planet Earth and humans together• taking the form of cultural narratives and practices

major transitions in biosphere and anthroposphere€¦ · major transitions in evolution i....

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