Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Major outcomes of COP21 and

what’s next for climate action

40th Cairo Climate Talks - “Putting the Paris Agreement

into effect: Climate Change Action in Africa”

Cairo, 31 May 2016

Lena Donat

Ecologic Institute

Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Paris Outcome – 3 columns

Paris Agreement

• Ratification required

• Will be legally binding once in force (but wording often weak)

• Defines objective and obligations for countries

Paris Decision

• No ratification required – not legally binding

• In effect since COP21

• Details + mandates + pre2020 action

Lima Paris Action Agenda

• Not legally binding

• Political commitments by state and non-state actors

31 May 2016 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes 2

Purpose (Art 2) Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time” (Art 3)

L&D (Art 8)

Sinks (Art 5)

Mechanisms (Art 6)

Mitigation (Art 4)

Peaking + rapid reductions +

balance

NDCs every 5 years +

“progression”

Long-term strategies

Adaptation (Art 7)

Capacity + resilience +

vulnerabilities

Cooperation + planning

Adaptation communications

Finance (Art 9)

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Capacity build.(Art 11)

Enhance capacity and ability of developing countries

Cooperation

Regular communication of

CB activities

Technology (Art 10)

Fully realize tech development and

transfer

strengthen cooperative

action

support innovation

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals (Art 14)

Transparency (Art 13)

Trust + confidence + effective

implementation

Provide information on mitigation,

adaptation and MoI

Expert review + multilateral

consideration

Objectives

Means

Feeds into stocktake

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook. 31 May 2016 3 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Purpose (Art 2) Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time” (Art 3)

L&D (Art 8)

Sinks (Art 5)

Mechanisms (Art 6)

Mitigation (Art 4)

Peaking + rapid reductions +

balance

NDCs every 5 years +

“progression”

Long-term strategies

Adaptation (Art 7)

Capacity + resilience +

vulnerabilities

Cooperation + planning

Adaptation communications

Finance (Art 9)

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Capacity build.(Art 11)

Enhance capacity and ability of developing countries

Cooperation

Regular communication of

CB activities

Technology (Art 10)

Fully realize tech development and

transfer

strengthen cooperative

action

support innovation

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals (Art 14)

Transparency (Art 13)

Trust + confidence + effective

implementation

Provide information on mitigation,

adaptation and MoI

Expert review + multilateral

consideration

Objectives

Means

Feeds into stocktake

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook.

31 May 2016 4 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

A long-term vision:2/1.5°C and phase-out

31 May 2016 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes 5

So

urc

e: M

. M

ein

sh

au

se

n, A

ustr

alia

n-G

erm

an C

lima

te

& E

ne

rgy C

olle

ge

(2

01

5)

Purpose (Art 2) Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time” (Art 3)

L&D (Art 8)

Sinks (Art 5)

Mechanisms (Art 6)

Mitigation (Art 4)

Peaking + rapid reductions +

balance

NDCs every 5 years +

“progression”

Long-term strategies

Adaptation (Art 7)

Capacity + resilience +

vulnerabilities

Cooperation + planning

Adaptation communications

Finance (Art 9)

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Capacity build.(Art 11)

Enhance capacity and ability of developing countries

Cooperation

Regular communication of

CB activities

Technology (Art 10)

Fully realize tech development and

transfer

strengthen cooperative

action

support innovation

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals (Art 14)

Transparency (Art 13)

Trust + confidence + effective

implementation

Provide information on mitigation,

adaptation and MoI

Expert review + multilateral

consideration

Objectives

Means

Feeds into stocktake

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook. 31 May 2016 6 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Ecologic Institute

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INDCs present real deviation from BAU

31 May 2016 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes 7

Source: European Commission (2015)

Gap

Ecologic Institute

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Dynamism: countries regularly update NDCs

31 May 2016 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes 8

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook.; Paris Agreement

Purpose (Art 2) Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time” (Art 3)

L&D (Art 8)

Sinks (Art 5)

Mechanisms (Art 6)

Mitigation (Art 4)

Peaking + rapid reductions +

balance

NDCs every 5 years +

“progression”

Long-term strategies

Adaptation (Art 7)

Capacity + resilience +

vulnerabilities

Cooperation + planning

Adaptation communications

Finance (Art 9)

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Capacity build.(Art 11)

Enhance capacity and ability of developing countries

Cooperation

Regular communication of

CB activities

Technology (Art 10)

Fully realize tech development and

transfer

strengthen cooperative

action

support innovation

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals (Art 14)

Transparency (Art 13)

Trust + confidence + effective

implementation

Provide information on mitigation,

adaptation and MoI

Expert review + multilateral

consideration

Objectives

Means

Feeds into stocktake

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook. 31 May 2016 9 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Purpose Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time”

Finance

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals

Objectives

Means

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook.

“make all financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low-emissions, climate-resilient development”

31 May 2016 10 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Purpose Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time”

Finance

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals

Objectives

Means

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook.

“make all financial flows consistent with a pathway towards low-emissions, climate-resilient development”

31 May 2016 11 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

•No quantitative obligation or numbers. •Decision states that 100bn USD continue until 2025, then to be revised upwards. •Information obligations in developed countries. •No qualitative obligations such as mainstreaming; enabling environments

Purpose (Art 2) Mitigation – Adaptation – finance flows

All Parties to take and communicate efforts towards purpose + “progression over time” (Art 3)

L&D (Art 8)

Sinks (Art 5)

Mechanisms (Art 6)

Mitigation (Art 4)

Peaking + rapid reductions +

balance

NDCs every 5 years +

“progression”

Long-term strategies

Adaptation (Art 7)

Capacity + resilience +

vulnerabilities

Cooperation + planning

Adaptation communications

Finance (Art 9)

Provision and mobilisation of

support (differentiated)

Balance adaptation +

mitigation

Biennial communications: ex ante & ex post (differentiated)

Capacity build.(Art 11)

Enhance capacity and ability of developing countries

Cooperation

Regular communication of

CB activities

Technology (Art 10)

Fully realize tech development and

transfer

strengthen cooperative

action

support innovation

Stocktake every 5 years of collective progress towards purpose and long-term goals (Art 14)

Transparency (Art 13)

Trust + confidence + effective

implementation

Provide information on mitigation,

adaptation and MoI

Expert review + multilateral

consideration

Objectives

Means

Feeds into stocktake

Info

rms

acti

on

s an

d s

up

po

rt In

form

s action

s and

sup

po

rt

Source: Bodle, Donat, Duwe (2016): The Paris Agreement : Analysis, Assessment and Outlook. 31 May 2016 12 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Challenges of the Paris Agreement

Mainly procedural obligations

• NDC cycle, transparency

Many essential details left for later

• E.g. NDC features, Stocktake modalities

Often vague phrasings

31 May 2016 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes 13

Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Challenges of the Paris Agreement

Mainly procedural obligations

• NDC cycle, transparency

Many essential details left for later

• E.g. NDC features, Stocktake modalities

Often vague phrasings

14 31 May 2016

The political narrative and impact of the PA is much

clearer and potentially more powerful than what the legal

text actually says

Ecologic Institute

ecologic.eu

“Paris is just the start!”– next steps

Many ambiguities and unsolved issues – agreeing details +

preventing watering down (not only technical)

Building capacity for and supporting transparency and

implementation of NDCs

Effectively using the global stocktake to increase ambition

Showing that climate action is feasible and has co-benefits

Keeping the political momentum up

Getting all relevant actors on board: different ministries,

investors, the public, other international processes

31 May 2016 15 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes

Ecologic Institute

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Ecologic Institute

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10717 Berlin

Germany

Tel. +49 (30) 86880-0

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Thank you!

Further Reading:

Bodle/Donat/Duwe (2016): The Paris

Agreement: Analysis, Assessment

and Outlook

http://ecologic.eu/13321

31 May 2016 Cairo Climate Talks - COP21 outcomes 16