mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the philippine forestry and natural resources sector

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Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in the

Philippine Forestry and Natural Resources Sector

Diomedes A. RacelisSEARCA Professorial Lecture

Drilon Hall, SEARCA11 May 2010

• Introduction

•Current State of Natural

Resources in the Philippines

•Climate Change Projections in

the Philippines

•General Framework for

Mainstreaming Climate Change

Adaptation in the Natural

Resources Sector

•Adaptation Strategies in

Forestry and the Natural

Resources Sectors

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION

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Why mainstream climate adaptation in the country’s forestry and natural resources sector?

• The Philippines is not a major emitter of GHGs but a major “victim” of impacts of climate change

• The forestry and natural resources sector is one of the most vulnerable sectors to the impacts of climate change

• The forestry and natural resources sector underpins ecosystem stability, food security, and economic development

Why mainstream climate adaptation in the country’s forestry and natural resources sector?

The Philippines is not a major emitter of GHGs but major “victim” of impacts of climate change•The country accounts for only 0.27% of total global GHGs emissions

•The country is ranked highest in the world in terms of vulnerability to tropical cyclone occurrence, and third in terms of people exposed to such seasonal events.

•An average of 20 typhoons traverse the country yearly, causing physical and economic devastation.

•Climate variability increasingly induces drought during El Niño episodes and floods during La Niña.

•Consequently, the Philippines faces increasing disaster risks with geologic/seismic dangers closely interacting with such meteorological hazards.

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Storm tracks (1900-2009)

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The thirteen (13) El Niño phenomena from 1950 to 1999

PIC OF El Nino

El Nino Events,

1951-1998

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Average Yearly Damages from Typhoons

(1975-2009)

• Annual deaths of 593

• 4.5 B pesos damage to property ($83 M)

• 3 B pesos damage to agriculture($55 M)

• Strong typhoons + excessive rains =

landslides

Key Observed CC Impacts in RP

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Damages due to El Niño

• Sharp decline in GVA in agriculture in 1982-83 and 1997-98

• Forest fires in 1982, 1992, and 1998

• Water production was reduced by 10% at Angat dam in 1997-98 El Niño

• Reduced hydropower generation in Lake Lanao due to 1992 drought


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•Decline in production of rice, corn, coconut and sugarcane in 1983 and 1998

•Dry spell affected 20.6% of brackishwater fishponds

•Milkfish and seaweed production dropped by 10-80%

•Massive coral bleaching in 1998

•Fishkills and high mortality of cultured giant clams in 1997-98 ENSO


DEFINITION OF TERMSMAINSTREAMING

refers to the integration of policies and measures that address climate change into development planning and sectoral decision-making

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DEFINITION OF TERMS

CLIMATE CHANGE refers to a change in climate that can be identified by changes in the mean and/or variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period typically decades or longer, whether due to natural variability or as a result of human activity.

DEFINITION OF TERMS

ADAPTATION

refers to the adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits beneficial opportunities.

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DEFINITION OF TERMS

FORESTRY

is the science, art and practice of understanding, managing and using wisely the natural resources associated with, and derived from forest lands.

NATURAL RESOURCES

• Forests

• Watersheds

• Biodiversity/Wildlife

• Protected Areas

• Wetlands and Freshwater Resources

• Coastal and Marine Resources

• Minerals

DEFINITION OF TERMS

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What is a WATERSHED?

A topographically delineated area drained by

a river system with a single outlet.

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VULNERABILITY

Degree to which a system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of climate change, including climate variability and extremes.

It is a function of the character, magnitude, and rate of climate change and variation to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.

DEFINITION OF TERMS

Objectives of the Presentation

General:At the end of the presentation the audience is expected to understand the importance of mainstreaming climate change adaptation in forestry and natural resources sector in attaining sustainable development

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Objectives of the Presentation

Specific:• Learn about the current practices and institutional

arrangements addressing climate change impacts in forestry and natural resources sector.

• Appreciate the importance of climate change adaptation strategies in forestry and natural resources sector.

• Learn about strategies on how to enhance mainstreaming of climate change adaptation in the design and implementation of NRM policies, programs and projects in the country.

LAND COVER AND CLASSIFICATION

Forest Cover (Total: 7.2 M ha)

56%

36%

5%3%

Closed Forests

Open Forests

Mangrove

Plantation

Alienable and DisposableForestland/Timberland

Land Classification, Philippines, 2003

(in Million ha.)

Land Classification, Philippines, 2003

(in Million ha.)

14.1 M

(47.1%)15.9 M

(52.9%)

SOURCE: NAMRIA, DENR

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WATERSHEDS

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• 24% of the watersheds have become unproductive due to different levels of degradation.

• Most have been converted to grasslands and shrublands, leaving very little forest cover.

• About 30% and 20% of the population in urban and rural areas have no potable water, respectively.

• The supply of freshwater is decreasing due to over extraction of groundwater, water pollution, denuded forests/watersheds and lack of catchment basin and, occasionally, the El Niño phenomenon

State of Philippine Watersheds

BIODIVERSITY

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BIODIVERSITY52,000 species of flora and fauna

BIODIVERSITY13,500 species of plants

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BIODIVERSITY960 species of mammals

BIODIVERSITY

541 species of birds

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BIODIVERSITY252 species of reptiles

PROTECTED AREAS

MT. PULAG

MT. APO

PROCLAIMED = 83UNPROCLAIMED = 123

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FRESHWATER RESOURCES

• 384 major river systems• 50 are considered biologically dead

• 60 lakes• 100,000 hectares of freshwater swamps

FRESHWATER RESOURCES

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COASTAL and MARINE RESOURCES

• Coastline = 18,417 kilometers

• Mangrove

Primary = ~ 40,000 hectares

Second growth = ~ 100,000 hectares

• Coral reefs = 200,000 hectares (5% of original)

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MINERAL RESOURCES

• Spread over 9 M hectares

• < 500,000 hectares under exploration

• Estimated value of $ 800 B – 1 T

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

R01

CA

R

R02

R03

R04

NC

R

R05

R06

R07

R08

R09

R10

R11

R12

CA

RA

GA

AR

MM

REGION

Tem

pera

ture

(°C

)

2020

2050

Projected Changes in Annual Mean Temperature for 2020 and 2050, relative to the Baseline 1971-2000 by Region (PAGASA, 2010)

Changes in Annual Mean Temperature

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Changes in Annual Mean Temperature

• The country’s average annual mean temperature is projected to increase by 0.9°C -1.2°C by 2020 and 1.7°C -3.0°C by 2050.

• Higher temperatures are generally expected for all regions of the country by 2050, the rates doubling compared to 2020 levels.

• Warming will be worst in Mindanao, supposedly the country’s food basket. The changes in mean annual temperature by region relative to the baseline period of 1970-2000

Projected Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall for 2020 and 2050, relative to the Baseline 1971-2000 by Region (PAGASA, 2010)

Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

R01

CA

R

R02

R03

R04

NC

R

R05

R06

R07

R08

R09

R10

R11

R12

CA

RA

GA

AR

MM

REGION

Perc

en

t(%

)

2020

2050

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Changes in Annual Mean Rainfall

• The PRECIS simulation exercise projects a change in annual precipitation from -0.5 to 17.4 % in 2020 and -2.4 to 16.4 % in 2050.

• Increases in rainfall are particularly evident in most areas of Luzon and Visayas, while Mindanao is projected to undergo a drying trend.

• Average annual rainfall increase over most parts of Luzon and the Visayas is expected to be 2 to 17 % by 2020 and 1 to 16 % by 2050.

• In contrast, there is a general reduction in regional annual average rainfall in Mindanao (~ 0.5 to 11 % by 2020; 2 to 11% in 2050).


Sea Level Rise

-35

-25

-15

-5

5

15

25

35

45

R01

CA

R

R02

R03

R04

NC

R

R05

R06

R07

R08

R09

R10

R11

R12

CA

RA

GA

AR

MM

REGION

Perc

en

t(%

)

2020

2050

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Sea Level Rise

• Sea level rise will increase the risk of flooding and storm damage.

• Projected impacts of 1 meter sea level rise in many areas of the country show vast portions being inundated, affecting coastal settlements and livelihood.

• According to estimates of the National Mapping and Resource Information Authority (NAMRIA), a one meter sea level rise can translate to an estimated land loss of 129,114 ha.

Type 1 - Two pronounced season; Dry from Nov-Apr and wet the rest of the year

Type 2 - No dry season with maximum rainfall from Nov-Jan

Type 3 - Season not so pronounced; Relatively dry from Nov- April and wet the rest of the year

Type 4 - Rainfall more or less distributed throughout the year

Observed/Measured Changes in Climate Types Coverage in the Philippines: (Source, PAGASA, 2008)

BeforeCurrent

Location of

Pattern of

climate Changes

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STAKEHOLDERS/

INSTITUTIONS

DENR

Local Government

Units (LGUs)

Non-Government

Organizations

(NGOs)

Publics/Local

Communities

NRM NATURAL RESOURCES CLIMATE CHANGE

Policies

Programs

Projects

Activities

Forests

Watersheds

Biodiversity

Minerals

Coastal

Resources/

Mangroves

Changes in

Precipitation

Pattern

Increased

Temperature

C

L

I

M

A

T

E

R

I

S

K

A

S

S

E

S

S

M

E

N

T

C

L

I

M

A

T

E

C

H

A

N

G

E

A

D

A

P

T

A

T

I

O

N

IMPACTS

Planning

Implementation

Monitoring and

Evaluation

Floods

Droughts

Pests

Diseases

Fire

Landslides

Erosion

Species extinction

Sea level rise

Storm surges

Climate Risk Information

Protected

Areas

Vulnerability Projections

Mitigation

Reports/Accomplishments

General framework for mainstreaming climate change adaptation

in the natural resources sector

A. Adaptation Strategies in Forestry

1. Decreased Rainfall/Drought – Seedling Survival

• Use of drought-tolerant species in reforestation could enhance survival rate of outplanted seedlings. Ideally, indigenous species have better adaptive characteristics under extreme environmental conditions.

• Proper species-site matching involves comparing the site requirements of the species with the prevailing site characteristics. A match will increase survival rate in reforestation areas.

• Enhanced site maintenance (e.g. supplemental watering, fertilization) would enhance the capacity of the species to tolerate stressful site conditions brought about by extreme climatic events like drought and excessive rainfall.

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2. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - Forest Fire

• Use of fire-tolerant species in reforestation could enhance survival rate of outplanted seedlings. Ideally, indigenous species have better adaptive characteristics under extreme environmental conditions.

• Proper species-site matching involves comparing the site requirements of the species with the prevailing site characteristics. A match will increase survival rate in reforestation areas.

• Enhanced site maintenance (e.g. supplemental watering, fertilization) would enhance the capacity of the species to tolerate stressful site conditions brought about by extreme climatic events like drought and excessive rainfall.

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3. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - Forest Fire

• Organize and train additional forest fire protection teams to enhance fire fighting capability of fire brigades during fire season.

• Set-up additional fire monitoring stations at strategic location provides for efficient detection of fire risk and outbreak in fire-prone areas during fire season.

• Implementation of fire risk rating system provides essential guidelines for concerned parties on appropriate actions to undertake under varying fire risk conditions.

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4. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - Pests & Diseases

• Multi-species/multi-cropping system enhances the capability of the site to arrest the spread of pests and diseases by providing natural barriers afforded by heterogeneous vegetation cover.

• Set-up pest and disease surveillance system that will provide efficient detection system for outbreak and monitoring of spread of pest and diseases. These will include tree plantation owners, tree farmers, ERDS, and other forest and environment-related research institutions.

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5. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - Reduced forest productivity

• Implement appropriate silvicultural treatments to enhance growth and yield of standing forest crops. They include cleaning, weeding, salvage cutting, sanitation cutting and enhancement planting.

6. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - Invasive Species

• Monitor and prevent establishment of bioinvasive species thru regular reconnaissance surveys of vulnerable sites like logged-over areas, second growth forests and reforestation areas.

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7. Changed Rainfall Pattern - disturbed phenology

• Conduct study on the effects of climate change on phenology to understand the interaction of changing climatic pattern and flowering and fruiting behaviour of forest species.

• Update seed collection calendar involves monitoring changes in seed production and maturation of forest species as possibly affected by changes in rainfall and temperature patterns in the locality.

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8. Increased Temperature -seedling survival rate due to heat stress

• Use of heat-tolerant species to increase survival of seedlings planted in areas with projected elevated temperature.

• Proper species-site matching aims to increase plant vigor and increase the resilience of the species to high temperature.

9. Increased Temperature - altered growing seasons and boundary shifts between grasslands and forests

• Conduct long-term studies on forest ecosystem dynamics vis-avis climate change to generate information on the responses of the ecosystem to varying meteorological conditions.

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B. Adaptation Strategies in Watersheds

1. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - reduced water yield due to drying out of springs

• Regulation of water use thru efficient irrigation and watering system.

• Water harvesting and establishment of small water impoundment ponds to reduce dependence on groundwater sources during the dry season.

• Use of shallow tube wells will provide easy to install and affordable sources of irrigation water during the dry

season and prolong drought episodes.

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2. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- increased soil erosion and landslides

• Redesign of vegetative and structural erosion control measures in relation to projected increases in rainfall intensity and duration.

• This is to increase their effectiveness in preventing/ minimizing erosion and reduce structural failure.

• Contour farming is designed to reduce and stabilize the slope of cultivated areas to reduce the velocity of surface runoff during extreme rainfall events.

• Mapping of erosion and landslide -prone areas focuses attention to sites that need immediate rehabilitation and implementation of disaster prevention measures.

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3. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- increased siltation and sedimentation of streams

• Setting up of sediment traps seeks to contain eroded materials in designated areas and prevent them from reaching streams and other water bodies.

4. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- streambank erosion

• Tree/bamboo planting along riparian areas stabilizes soil and prevents scouring of streambanks by rampaging flood waters during rainy season.

5. Increased Rainfall/Flooding- reduced water quality due to siltation

• Improved water filtration system will help ensure quality of water supply in areas susceptible to flooding and water supply contamination.

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C. Adaptation Strategies in Biodiversity/Protected Area

A. Decreased Rainfall/Drought - damage to wildlife habitats due to fire and die off

• Fire protection reduces damage to habitat of endangered species.

• Habitat rehabilitation and management to ensure that the area is able to support native and resident species.

B. Changed Rainfall Pattern - altered growth cycle

• Habitat management improves site conditions that are conducive to increased survival rate of endangered species.

C. Increased Temperature - proliferation of weed and bioinvasive species

• Weed control reduces competition from undesirable species and enhance the growth of protected species supply contamination.

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D. Adaptation Strategies in Mining1. Increased Rainfall/Flooding - increased soil erosion and

landslides

• Proper design of settling ponds to contain mine waste water before releasing it to nearby streams.

• Redesign of vegetative and structural erosion control measures in relation to projected increases in rainfall intensity and duration. This is to increase their effectiveness in preventing/minimizing erosion and reduce structural failure.

• Contour farming is designed to reduce and stabilize the slope of cultivated areas to reduce the velocity of surface runoff during extreme rainfall events.

• Mapping of erosion and landslide -prone areas focuses attention to sites that need immediate rehabilitation and implementation of disaster prevention measures.

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D. Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Resources

1. Decreased Rainfall/Drought• decreased flux of freshwater and sediment due to

drought in upstream areas resulting in increased salinity and subsequent dieback of some mangrove species

2. Increased Rainfall/Flooding/Sea Level Rise• Inundation of coastal areas resulting in dieback of less

waterlog-tolerant species • Increased coastal erosion3. Increased Temperature• coral bleaching

D. Adaptation Strategies in Coastal Resources

• Conduct studies on the effects of climate change on coastal ecosystems including physiology of mangrove species, salt tolerance of species, sea water intrusion, coral bleaching, population studies and monitoring of mangrove and marine flora and fauna.

• Vulnerability assessment of coastal areas to sea level rise and storm surges to identify areas suitable for a particular land use and facilitate planning strategies to minimize impacts.

• Future viability of beach resorts and seafront tourism facilities based on projected sea level rise vis-à-vis site characteristics.

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CONCLUSION• Climate change is upon us!

• Its impacts will continue to affect how we live

• Its effects will permeate all aspects of our society and the environment

• How we adapt could reduce or increase our vulnerability to adverse impacts of climate change

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Ignoring climate change will be the most costly of all possible choices, for us and our children

There is still time to avoid the worst impacts of climate change, if we take strong action now

- Sir Nicholas Stern

- Peter Ewins

THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR LISTENING!!!

mainstreaming climate change adaptation in the philippine forestry and natural resources sector

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