magnus gustafsson future sales and supply of seafood in the united states future sales and supply of...
TRANSCRIPT
Magnus Gustafsson
Future Sales and Supply of Seafood
in the United States
Future Sales and Supply of Seafood
in the United States
Magnus Gustafsson
“He who foretells the future, lies…
even if he tells the truth.”-Chinese Proverb
($ billions)
Total Sales$922
Total Sales$922
Foodservice$455 49%
Foodservice$455 49%
Retail$467 51%
Retail$467 51%
Food Sales in U.S. 2004Food Sales in U.S. 2004
(Source: Technomic 2004)
($ in Billions)
Sea...The Future of Seafood
Magnus Gustafsson
Seafood Statistics… Seafood sales will increase the next 5 years by 10% Per Capita Consumption will rise +5 % Population will increase +5% 10% increase is 220,000 tons edible weight Supply needs to increase 650,000 tons catch weight
US Consumer DemographicsUS Consumer Demographics
78 million Baby Boomers enter
a new life stage
73 million Gen Y’ers are
becoming adults
Ethnic groups keep
growing rapidly,
Asian & Hispanic +30%
Source: IFMA 2004
US Consumer Demographics
1.The Baby Boomers 78 million Baby Boomers enter a new life stage, Empty Nesters, and move toward retirement and grand parenting (born 1946-1964)
Healthier, wealthier, more mobile than past
Want to prolong life
Live with chronic illnesses
Won’t sacrifice flavor or experience/adventure
More disposable income to spend at restaurants
…where seafood is eaten most!
Will pay for quality (like Icelandic®),
pedigree, presentation, service
Focus on healthy eating and foods
Seafood an important part of ethnic lifestyles
Implications for Seafood MarketImplications for Seafood Market
Time is THE most valuable commodity
Time saving technology is IT!
Technology is focused on
…eliminating task
…simplifying task
…multi-tasking
Culture of ConvenienceCulture of Convenience
Source: IFMA 2004
Time is THE most valuable commodity
Time saving technology is driving the world
Don’t make task easier...eliminate it!
Not just doing it in less time...make it time well
spent!
Not one thing...multi-task!
Simplify task...make it effortless!
Lesser quality or experience no longer accepted!
Culture of Convenience - ImplicationsCulture of Convenience - Implications
Time rushed population favors
eating out
Fully cooked seafood...environmentally
friendly package
3 meals a day disappears,
5 “rushed meals” a day
However, increased snacking is
issue/opportunity for seafood
Source: IFMA 2004
Time is THE most valuable commodity
Time saving technology is driving the world
Don’t make task easier...eliminate it!
Not just doing it in less time...make it time well
spent!
Not one thing...multi-task!
Simplify task...make it effortless!
Lesser quality or experience no longer accepted!
Affordable Luxuries Affordable Luxuries
Don’t want possessions…experience
“Mass Luxuries”…like Starbucks
Want quality for less…Wal-mart factor
Want more, faster, better, different
Time is THE most valuable commodity
Time saving technology is driving the world
Don’t make task easier...eliminate it!
Not just doing it in less time...make it time well
spent!
Not one thing...multi-task!
Simplify task...make it effortless!
Lesser quality or experience no longer accepted!
Don’t want possessions…experience
“Mass Luxuries”…like Starbucks
Want quality for less…Wal-mart factor
Want more, faster, better, different
Affordable Luxuries ImplicationsAffordable Luxuries Implications
Seafood perceived as upscale
Shellfish items will continue to increase in popularity
…shrimps
…crabs
…lobster
“Wild” will get premium vs. “Farmed”
Delicate balance in what consumer will pay
Obesity epidemic
Boomers obsessed
with looking young
Functional foods used
for disease management
Fresh=healthy
Instant communication of studies, diets, drugs
New Dietary Guidelines positive...!
Health IssuesHealth Issues
+
...two a day
...twice a week
Boomers wanting to live longer
is primary quest
Healthy menu items like seafood
will be “hot”
Diet compatible menu offerings
New cuisines and more intense
flavors to replace fat and sugars
Functional foods...”Omega 3 ‘s”
Greater emphasis on fresh
To Your Health-ImplicationsTo Your Health-Implications
Outside InfluencesOutside Influences
Activist based consumers
Empowered consumers
demand more
Hold corporations/officers accountable
Litigation by special interest groups
Humane treatment of food source
Food safety
New labeling and information
regulations
Ideology based dining forms
Humane treatment of fish?
Pressure on raw material sourcing-
“Is that country/supplier a risk?”
Farmed vs. Wild Takes Center Stage
Outside Influences - ImplicationsOutside Influences - Implications
Food Distribution TrendsFood Distribution Trends
Further distributor consolidation
Operator conducting business
via computer
Traditional distributor sales rep
disappears
How to be the Wal-mart
of the foodservice business
Automation and technology replace labor
Retaining labor huge issue
“Kitchenless” restaurant
Technology to pin point consumers & needs
Chains sophistication puts independents at risk
Must be high quality, authentic, ever changing
Food as food disappears...experience!
“On the Go” menu
Automation and technology replace labor
Retaining labor huge issue
“Kitchenless” restaurant
Chains sophistication
puts independents at risk
“On the Go” menu
Restaurant Segments TrendsRestaurant Segments Trends
AK - Pollock 6.720 2.885 (57)
Cod 2.510 1.159 (54)
N-Atlalandic 2.070 807 (61)
Iceland 392 206 (47)
Pacific 440 352 (20)
Hakes 1,380 1,043 (24)
Hoki 180 374 107
NA-Pollock 480 374 (21)
Redfish 440 247 (44)
Haddock 400 263 (34)
Total 12,110 6,349 (48)
Farmed fish 350 3,600 929
1987 2003 % Change
World Supply - Reduction in Wild - Increase in FarmedWorld Supply - Reduction in Wild - Increase in Farmed
U.S. Seafood Consumption in 2010 U.S. Seafood Consumption in 2010
Quantity in thousand tons 1990 2003 2010
Shrimp 247 525 590
Tuna 416 447 425
Salmon 82 292 370
Catfish 79 149 175
AK-Pollock 143 159 170
Tilapia 0 71 155
Crab 33 80 100
Cod 155 85 85
Clams 69 69 70
Flatfish 64 42 55
Scallops 34 43 45
Haddock 20 21 30
Other 345 158 170
Total 1,686 2,141 2,440
Yellow Bar = Farmed
Iceland25%(47%)
Russia20%(14%)
Asia 25%(13%)
South America 5%(2%)
USA20%(14%)
Canada5%(3%)
Iceland30%(47%)
Russia15%(14%)
Asia 25%(13%)
South America 4%(2%)
USA20%(14%)
Canada5%(3%)
% weight Figures for 2004 in ( ) % weight Figures for 2004 in ( )
Icelandic® Operations in 2010 Icelandic® Operations in 2010
New Zealand
1% (1%)
ManufacturerSales and Service
(emphasis on Foodservice)
800 Customers
SourcingIcelandic
Group andOther Producers
Icelandic® Operations in 2010Icelandic® Operations in 2010
800 Customers
SourcingIcelandic
Group andOther Producers Sales
Network
Direct Sales
43 Broker Companies
70% of Volume
Direct Sales
Distributors
1,300 Foodservice Distributorsof Frozen Seafood
Icelandic® Operations in 2010Icelandic® Operations in 2010
ManufacturerSales and Service
(emphasis on Foodservice)
Sales Network
Consumer
RetailDirect Sales
311 Mil. ConsumersFood Sales $1
Trillion
43 Broker Companies
Direct Sales $455 B-
55%
$467 B
45%
SourcingIcelandic
Group andOther Producers
Distributors
ChannelFood service
1300 Foodservice Distributors
of Frozen Seafood
Source: Technomic 2004
Icelandic® Operations in 2010Icelandic® Operations in 2010
ManufacturerSales and Service
(emphasis on Foodservice)
Thank You!Thank You!
“I never think of the future - it comes soon enough.” - Albert Einstein