MACROVIEW

IWM 31day Intraday – rising trendline from the lows has kept decline in check- nearing end of 26 th to the 4th window – Support remains 80 with resistance nearing 82 – higher lows and lower highs gives the look of a sideways consolidation PROVIDING 79/80 support levels hold – outside mkts will dictate.

SILVER – 31day Intraday – Massive YTD gain – testing the round number of 35 and nearing ALL TIME Monthly closing highs at 37 – too late to buy and in need of a consolidation/correction – FX and geopolitical events will determine the scope of the next move –

GLD/SLV ratio nearing 40 which is very close to 1998 lows – Silver still remains UNDER its all time peak near $50.

SAUDI YOY – DN 23% from recent Jan highs as contagion fears possibly turn toward reality – Saudi is responsible for roughly 8.5mbp with swing production rumored to be near 2-4 mbp – clearly subjective data and mkts are clearly shooting first – monitor the action in MENA mkts and MES/EGPT during US hours – clearly stability is wished upon.

Saudi 5yr CDS spreads – 75bps to 140bps since the start of Feb and spreads remain wide – situation remains fluid and mkts will remain highly volatile – should spreads continue skyward it will clearly impact all financial mkts.

WTI BRENT Spread – 12/10 to current – recent lows held regardless of continued bid in OIL – this should be viewed as either a sign of calm where the spread narrows as “war premium” is taken out of BRENT OR the world will suddenly view WTI as a CHEAP way to hoard OIL where WTI moves closer toward 115 – impossible situation to game with discipline being the best offense.

XLE – 08/10 to Current – while Financial News would have us think that energy has SUDDENLY become a geopolitical problem, it has been in a bull mkt of its own since the start of Q410 – XLE is responsible for roughly 45% of the entire SPX YTD gain – ENERGY is the leader but is extended in the ST – global energy security will remain KEY to stability.

WTI Crude – 15day Intraday – nearing 102/104 panic highs – using a combination of WTI/BRENT spread and ABSOLUTE levels will give a cleaner picture of mkt intentions – combining UST, USD, and OIL interactions is going to become CRUCIAL to navigating the mkts going forward – higher OIL and US YLDs with a LOWER USD remains END GAME viewpoint – time will tell.

TNX – 10yr YLD – 15day Intraday – “safe haven” bid began as ME tensions and OIL began to rise – with outside mkts nearing a technical inflection point the next several weeks will offer many hints of the future – break above 3.5% will possibly renew the upward trend in ylds

DXY – USD Index – 07 to Current – 4yr consolidation pattern and nearing the lower end support range – break LOWER will target ALL TIME lows in DXY with LACI (Latam) and ADXY (Asean) being beneficiaries - falling USD with negative REAL US rates offer no protection from real world inflation – FED will be tested and mkts will vent.

TYX – 30yr YLD – 07 to Current – NOTICE BOTH DXY and TYX are both sitting on respective LT SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE zones – Will a break in one cause a break in the other? READ LOWER USD and HIGHER RATES – Will a USD breakdown cause a continued bid in “COMMODITIES” making monetary policy have no teeth?

XLF – 31day – ABSOLUTE – divergences abound – Support remains 16.20 area with no real support below – this could be a possible yellow flag to upcoming volatility in FX and Credit mkts.

XLF vs SPX - RELATVE – 12m downtrend remains intact with ST support being taken out – bull mkts historically are led by financials – watch Big Money Center banks for further clues.