macroeconomic perspectives on a renewable energy transition jonathan m. harris copyright © 2014...
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Macroeconomic Perspectives on a Macroeconomic Perspectives on a Renewable Energy Transition Renewable Energy Transition
Jonathan M. HarrisJonathan M. Harris
http://ase.tufts.edu/gdaeCopyright Copyright © 2014 Jonathan M. Harris© 2014 Jonathan M. Harris
Can Renewable Energy Provide a Solution to Climate Change?
Long-term link between economic grwoth and carbon emissions
Need to “decouple” economic activity from carbon emissions
An end to growth, or a new kind of energy economy? Or both?
Growth in Population, Agricultural Production, and Energy Use, 1961-2010
Sources: Population and Agriculture,FAO, 2012; GWP, IMF ww.imf.org; Energy, EIA www.eia.gov
World GDP 1870-2003
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1860 1910 1960 2010
Year
GD
P (
Tri
llio
n)
Source: Maddison, Historical Statistics for the World Economy, 2008.
Source: Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC), http://cdiac.ornl.gov/
Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption, 1860-2008
World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, World Carbon Dioxide Emissions, Historical and ProjectedHistorical and Projected
Source: U.S. Department of Energy, 2012.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, ww.eia.gov, accessed 2013.
Per Capita Emissions of CO2 by Country
Global Energy Consumption by Source, 2012
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA 2013)
Availability of Global Renewable Energy
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011); U.S. Energy Information Administration; Stanford Engineering News, http://engineering.stanford.edu/news/wind-could-meet-many-times-world-total-power-demand-2030-researchers-say
Energy SourceTotal Global
Availability (trillion watts)
Availability in Likely-Developable Locations
(trillion watts)Wind 1700 40 – 85
Wave > 2.7 0.5
Geothermal 45 0.07 – 0.14
Hydroelectric 1.9 1.6
Tidal 3.7 0.02
Solar photovoltaic 6500 340
Concentrated solar power 4600 240
Total global energy use in 2006: 15.8 Trillion Watts
Infrastructure Requirements for Supplying All Global Energy in 2030 from Renewable Sources
Source: Jacobson and Delucchi (2011).
Energy SourcePercent of 2030 Global Power
Supply
Number of Plants/Devices Needed
WorldwideWind turbines 50 3,800,000
Wave power plants 1 720,000
Geothermal plants 4 5,350
Hydroelectric plants 4 900
Tidal turbines 1 490,000
Rooftop solar PV systems 6 1.7 billion
Solar PV power plants 14 40,000
Concentrated solar power plants
20 49,000
TOTAL 100
Land requirement: about 2% of total global land area. (Can be combined with agricultural uses)
Global Potential for Energy Efficiency
Source: Blok et al. (2008)
Source: International Energy Agency, 2011
Projected 2035 Global Energy Demand, by Source
Growth of Solar PV and Wind Installations (2003-2012)
Source: Worldwatch Institute (2014).
Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies
Declining Energy Intensity in Industrial Economies, 1991-2008
Source: US Energy Information Administration (EIA), 2011.
Ene
rgy
Inte
nsity
- Btu
per
Yea
r 200
5 U
.S. D
olla
rs (1
991
base
yea
r)
Year
Source: EIA 2013.
Developing Countries Energy Intensity
0.400
0.500
0.600
0.700
0.800
0.900
1.000
1.100
1.200
1.300
1.400
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Year
Btu
per
(20
00)
US
Do
llar,
100
-bas
ed
India
China
Brazil
Mexico
Indonesia
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004
Energy Intensities, Selected Countries
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
En
erg
y C
on
sum
pti
on
(B
TU
) p
er d
oll
ar G
DP
United States
France
Germany
United Kingdom
India
China
Brazil
Mexico
Indonesia
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2004
Energy Intensity, PPP GDP
Source: Energy Information Administration, 2011
Source: Energy Information Administration, 2011
World average energy intensity, 2011: 9885 BTU/GDP$
Economic Growth
Energy IntensityRate of Change
(BAU)
Energy IntensityRate of Change
(HI-EFF)
Population1%
Shift to Services-1%
Shift to Services-2%
Per capita GDP2%
Increased Efficiency-1%
Increased Efficiency-2%
Total3%
Total-2%
Total-4%
Net Change in Energy Use 1%
Net Change in Energy Use -1%
Growth and Efficiency
90 unitscarbon-based
100 units carbon-based
2014 2034
Renewables 10 units
Renewables 20 units
100 units total
120 units total~1% p.a. growth in energy demand
Copyright © 2011 Jonathan M. HarrisCopyright © 2011 Jonathan M. Harris
Business as Usual Scenario
90 unitscarbon-based 60 units
carbon-based
2014 2034
10 units
Renewables 20 units
100 units total
80 units total
~1% p.a. decline in energy demand
Copyright © 2011 Jonathan M. HarrisCopyright © 2011 Jonathan M. Harris
Based on modest investment in services, efficiency, renewables, with no loss in employment (probably a gain)
Services, Efficiency, & Renewables Scenario
Examples of “Green” Macro Policy: U.S.• $787 billion dollar stimulus package included about $71 billion for specifically
“green” investments, plus $20 billion in “green” tax incentives.
• Energy efficiency in Federal buildings and DoD facilities -- $8.7 billion• Smart-grid infrastructure investment -- $11 billion• Energy and conservation grants to state and local governments -- $6.3 billion• Weatherization assistance -- $5 billion• Energy efficiency and renewable energy research -- 2.5 billion• Advanced battery manufacturing -- $2 billion• Loan guarantees for wind and solar projects -- $6 billion• Public transit and high-speed rail -- 17.7 billion• Environmental cleanup -- $14.6 billion• Environmental research -- $6.6 billion
Aggressive Federal policy action including “green” investments “probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0 . . . without the government’s response, GDP in 2010 would be about 11.5% lower, payroll employment would be less by some 8 ½ million jobs, and the nation would now be experiencing deflation.” (Blinder and Zandi, “How the Great Recession was Brought to an End”, 2010).
Examples of “Green” Macro Policy: Portugal
• Portugal government-led transition from fossil fuels towards renewable power, with the percentage of renewable supply in Portugal’s grid up from 17 percent in 2005 to 45 percent in 2010.
• $22 billion investment in modernizing electrical grid and developing wind and hydropower facilities.
• Portugal will recoup some of its investment through European Union carbon credits, and will save about $2.3 billion a year on avoided natural gas imports.
“Portugal Gives Itself a Clean-Energy Makeover,” New York Times August 10, 2010.
Source: US Department of Energy, 2013ACCESSED AT: http://www.eia.doe.gov
Decline since 2007: 12%
