macro socio-economic and environmental impact assessment …€¦ · · 2017-09-05macro...
TRANSCRIPT
Macro Socio-Economic and Environmental Impact Assessment of the Damage and Loss caused by the March to June Rains 2017
Prepared by: The Planning Institute of Jamaica
Date: August 15, 2017
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TABLE OF CONTENTS
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................ iv
List of Tables .................................................................................................................................. v
List Of Maps .................................................................................................................................. vi
Preface........................................................................................................................................... vii
Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................... viii
1. INTRODUCTION ................................................................................................................... 1
1.1 The Meteorological Phenomenon .................................................................................... 1
1.2 The Severe Weather Event ............................................................................................... 1
1.2.1 Emergency Actions and Expenditure........................................................................ 8
1.2.2 Emergency Actions ................................................................................................... 8
1.2.2.1 Health................................................................................................................. 8
1.2.2.2 Shelter management .......................................................................................... 8
1.2.2.3 Welfare and Relief ........................................................................................... 10
1.2.2.4 Rescue Operations ........................................................................................... 12
1.2.2.5 Road/Drainage Clearance ................................................................................ 13
1.3 Affected Population........................................................................................................ 13
1.3.1 Vulnerability of Women and Children ................................................................... 14
1.4 Impact on Livelihoods .................................................................................................... 15
1.5 Relief Expenditure ........................................................................................................... 16
2 SOCIAL SECTORS .............................................................................................................. 17
2.1 Health ............................................................................................................................. 17
2.1.1 Service Delivery During the Event ......................................................................... 18
2.1.2 Vector Control ........................................................................................................ 20
2.1.3 Morbidity and Mortality ......................................................................................... 20
2.2 Education ........................................................................................................................ 20
2.3 Housing .......................................................................................................................... 22
3 PRODUCTIVE SECTORS ................................................................................................... 26
3.1 Agriculture ..................................................................................................................... 26
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3.2 Irrigation ......................................................................................................................... 29
4 INFRASTRUCTURE ............................................................................................................ 32
4.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 32
4.2 Electricity & Water Supplies.......................................................................................... 33
4.2.1 Electricity Sub-industry .......................................................................................... 33
4.3 Water Supply & Sanitation ............................................................................................ 35
4.4 Transport ........................................................................................................................ 36
4.4.1 Road Transport........................................................................................................ 36
5 IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................. 41
5.1 Impact of the Disaster on the Environment .................................................................... 41
5.1.1 Impact on the parish of Clarendon .......................................................................... 42
5.1.1.1 Forest Ecosystem ............................................................................................. 43
5.1.1.2 Aquatic Ecosystems ......................................................................................... 43
5.1.2 Impact on the parish of St. Catherine...................................................................... 46
5.1.3 St. Thomas .............................................................................................................. 48
5.1.4 Impact on St. Mary ................................................................................................. 49
5.2 Other Parishes ................................................................................................................ 50
5.3 Waste Management ........................................................................................................ 50
6 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW ..................................................................................... 52
6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................... 52
6.2 Economic Performance Prior To Flood Rains ............................................................... 53
6.2.1 Economic Policy ..................................................................................................... 53
6.3 Labour Market Update 2016 .......................................................................................... 53
Note: Discrepancies are due to rounding, p - preliminary ........................................................ 54
Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica...................................................................................... 54
6.4 External Trade Performance........................................................................................... 54
6.4.1 Merchandise Trade.................................................................................................. 54
6.4.2 Merchandise Imports .............................................................................................. 54
6.4.3 Merchandise Exports .............................................................................................. 54
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6.5 Gross Domestic Product ................................................................................................. 55
6.6 Sectoral Performance ..................................................................................................... 56
6.6.1 Goods Producing Industry ...................................................................................... 56
6.6.1.1 Agriculture ....................................................................................................... 56
6.6.1.2 Mining ............................................................................................................. 57
6.6.1.3 Manufacture ..................................................................................................... 57
6.6.1.4 Construction..................................................................................................... 57
6.6.2 Services Industry ..................................................................................................... 58
6.6.2.1 Electricity & Water Supply ............................................................................. 58
6.6.2.2 Transport, Storage & Communication............................................................. 58
6.6.2.3 Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair & Installation of Machinery ..................... 59
6.6.2.4 Finance & Insurance ........................................................................................ 59
6.6.2.5 Hotels & Restaurants ....................................................................................... 59
6.7 Preliminary GDP Forecast For FY 2017/18 Prior To March To June Rains ................. 60
6.8 Projected GDP Performance After The Disaster, FY 2017/18 ...................................... 60
7 RECOMMENDATIONS TOWARDS RECOVERY AND RESTORATION ........................ 61
APPENDIX 1A ............................................................................................................................. 64
APPENDIX 1B ............................................................................................................................. 65
APPENDIX 1C ............................................................................................................................. 73
APPENDIX 2 ................................................................................................................................ 76
APPENDIX 3 ................................................................................................................................ 83
APPENDIX 4 ................................................................................................................................ 84
APPENDIX 5 ................................................................................................................................ 85
ADDENDUM ............................................................................................................................... 88
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LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1: Satellite Imagery of the Central Caribbean on May 15 and 16, 2017 .......................... 2
Figure 1.2: Radar Imagery of the May 2017 Rains ........................................................................ 2
Figure 1.3: Total Rainfall at Selected Intensity Rain Gauge, May 14 - 19, 2017........................... 6
Figure1.4: Streamflow Levels at Plantain Garden River, May 14-19, 2017 .................................. 6
Figure1.5: Peak Streamflow Levels at Selected Rivers (m) ........................................................... 7
Figure 1.6: Shelter Occupancy between May 16 and 20, 2017 .................................................... 10
Figure 1.7: Emergency Actions in Clarendon ............................................................................... 13
Figure 2.1: Damaged Houses across the island ............................................................................ 23
Figure 2.2: Property Tenure- Households Impacted by Flood Rains (May- June 17) .................. 24
Figure 3.1: Damage to Farmlands associated with the May 2017 rains ....................................... 28
Figure 4.1: Total Cost of to Re-open Roadways by Parish.......................................................... 37
Figure 4.2: L-R: Severely scoured road in Cave Valley, St. Ann Right: Flooding Big Pond, St.
Catherine ....................................................................................................................................... 37
Figure 4.3: L-R: Alley Bridge, Clarendon Right: Washed out Bridge in Redwood, .................... 38
Figure 5.1: Heavily Silted Wetland System in close proximity to Milk River Bath .................... 44
Figure 5.2: Inundated Farmlands in Bog Hole, Clarendon ........................................................... 46
Figure 5.3: Approximate Water Level in the Bog Walk Gorge .................................................... 48
Figure 5.4: Erosion and Siltation of the River at York ................................................................. 49
Figure 5.5: Debris deposited on Frontier Beach, Port Maria ........................................................ 49
Figure 6.1: Change In Real GDP For The Jamaican Economy, 2007-2016 ................................. 56
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LIST OF TABLES
Table1.1: Shelter Occupancy by Date, Shelter and Gender ............................................................ 9
Table1.2: Relief Distributed on May 17 and 18, 2017, by the MLSS .......................................... 11
Table 1.3: Persons Impacted by Flood Rains (As Assessed by the MLSS May – June 2017) ..... 12
Table 1.4: Physical Condition of Respondents of MLSS Household Assessment ....................... 15
Table 1.5: MLSS Expenditure - April and May Rains 2017 ........................................................ 16
Table 1.6: ODPEM Expenditure for Relief Supplies - April and May 2017 Rains ..................... 16
Table 2.1: Damage and Loss Sustained by the Health Sector ...................................................... 18
Table 2.2: Number of Public Institutions by Parish ...................................................................... 22
Table 2.3: Damage Reported by Households Assessed by the MLSS (May – June 2017) .......... 23
Table 2.4: Material of Outer Wall of Houses Damaged by Flood Rains (May-June) .................. 25
Table 3.1: Damage and Loss Sustained by the Agriculture Sector ............................................... 26
Table 3.2: Farming Communities Impacted by Flooding ............................................................. 27
Table 3.3: Summary of Damages to the Agriculture Sector ......................................................... 28
Table 3.4: Estimated Cost Flood Damages Caused By the Inclement Weather - June 16 - 18,
2017............................................................................................................................................... 30
Table 3.5: Damage to Forest Due to May Rainfall Event ............................................................. 31
Table 4.1: Infrastructure – Damage and Loss ($Million) ............................................................. 32
Table 4.2: Status of Power Outage as at May 18 .......................................................................... 34
Table 4.3: Cost for Temporary Restorative Works and Reopening of Roadways ........................ 39
Table 4.4: Major Impacts - Flood Damage (May 2017) - Select Areas ....................................... 40
Table 5.1: Summary of Environmental Impact – Forest Ecosystem - Clarendon ........................ 44
Table 5.2: Summary of Environmental Impact – Rivers - Clarendon .......................................... 45
Table 5.3: Summary of Environmental Impact- Agro-Ecosystem -Clarendon ............................ 46
Table 5.4: Summary of Environmental Impact in St Catherine.................................................... 47
Table 5.5: Summary of Environmental Impact in St Mary .......................................................... 50
Table 6.1: Summary of Damage and Loss from the March to June Rains, 2017 ......................... 52
Table 6.2: Main Labour Force Indicators By Sex, 2015–2016 ..................................................... 54
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LIST OF MAPS
Map 1.1: Stations by Return Period Exceedance ............................................................................ 4
Map 1.2: Location of Streamflow stations and Intensity Rain Gauges Retrofitted with E-Trackers
......................................................................................................................................................... 5
Map 1.3: Communities Affected by the May 2017 Rains ............................................................ 14
Map 2.1: Health Facilities Affected by the May 2017 Rains ....................................................... 19
Map 2.2: Parishes affected by School Closure on May 16, 2017 ................................................. 21
Map 3.1: Jamaica Agricultural Zones ........................................................................................... 27
Map 5.1: Parishes Covered in the Post Climatic Disaster Assessment......................................... 42
Map 5.2: Communities Included in the Post-Climatic Disaster Assessment in Clarendon .......... 43
vii
PREFACE
This report was prepared following the occurrence of sustained heavy rainfall associated with a
surface trough which impacted the island between May 13 and 18, 2017. It includes an account of the
impact of the rains on the affected population; identifies geographically affected areas and appraises
the effect of the event on the economic, social and environment sectors. While the report primarily
addresses the May rains, data from two rainfall events since March and another in June are also
included and the overall impact reported is cumulative.
The assessment was prepared by the Planning Institute of Jamaica in collaboration with the Office of
Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) and other member agencies of the
Disaster Impact Assessment Core Team1. Data and information on the damage and losses were
provided by various ministries, departments and agencies of the Government of Jamaica. These
included, among others:
- Meteorological Service Jamaica
- Ministry of Labour and Social Security
- National Environment and Planning Agency
- National Works Agency
- Ministry of Health
- National Water Commission
- Water Resources Authority
- Ministry of Industry, Commerce, Agriculture and Fisheries
- Rural Agricultural Development Authority
- Jamaica Public Service Company Ltd
- Forestry Department
- National Irrigation Commission
Baseline data for the conduct of the assessment was drawn from among official government data sets
including: the Population and Housing Census 2011, the Jamaica Survey of Living Conditions 2014,
the data sets from the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN), and other relevant data sets from the
Ministry of Finance and the Public Service, PIOJ and the Bank of Jamaica.
The assessment was made using the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and
the Caribbean (UNECLAC) Damage and Loss Assessment (DaLA) methodology for estimating the
socio-economic and environmental effects of disasters. The ECLAC methodology is based on a
stock-flow analysis of the difference before and after an event. Through a sectoral approach, it
provides guidelines for the aggregation of value (damage and losses), to be used in the evaluation
following an event. The methodology is a basic accounting approach based on the national account
framework and impact multipliers in the economy. The information supplied in the report is
preliminary and subject to revision. The cut-off point for data used in the report was August 10,
2017.
1 The Disaster Impact Assessment Core Team consists of representatives from the PIOJ, Office of Disaster
Preparedness and Emergency Management, Meteorological Service, Jamaica, Ministry of Labour and Social
Security, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education, Youth and Information, National Works Agency, Ministry of
Industry, Commerce, Agriculture and Fisheries, National Water Commission, Jamaica Public Service Company and
the National Environment and Planning Agency.
viii
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Description of the Event
On the evening of Saturday May 13, 2017 a trough west of the island began to produce periods
of light to moderate showers with isolated thunderstorms across eastern, south-central and
western parishes. With the deterioration of atmospheric conditions the trough produced
moderate to heavy rainfall across the island from May 14-18. This resulted in major flooding and
landslides across 11 parishes dumping up to a month’s volume of rainfall on some areas. The
parish of Clarendon was worst affected with one of its communities registering 5.2 metres (17
feet) of flood waters. Overall, 66 communities reported flooding, 10 in the parishes of
Clarendon, St Catherine and St Ann were marooned. Forty communities were affected by
landslides.
Summary Cost
While the report primarily reflects the impacts of the rainfall event between May 13 and 18, the
costs of damage and loss relate to rainfall events in the months prior to (March, April) and
following May (June) are also captured in the report. The total costs of damage and loss related
to the March to June rainfall events was estimated at $4.0 billion or 0.2 per cent of 2016 GDP.
Of this total, damage incurred accounted for $1.0 billion or 24.7 per cent and losses and
additional costs accounted for $3.0 billion or 75.3 per cent of the total cost. Over 80.0 per cent
($3.3 billion) of the total loss and damage was public cost. Losses incurred were concentrated in
the infrastructure sector, specifically transport which reported losses of $2.9 billion, primarily
due to the reopening of blocked roadways. Although the island’s transport infrastructure received
the greatest level of damage, the cost is not reflected in the report as only preliminary figures
were available at the time of reporting. Damage to the Productive sector was estimated at $0.8
billion driven by impacts to the Agriculture industry.
Infrastructure
As with previous hydro-meteorological events, the country’s infrastructure bore the brunt of the
damage caused by the rainfall events. Several communities were cut off in St. Catherine,
Clarendon and Portland and breakaways occurred in St. Thomas and St. Mary with
approximately 100 roads affected island wide. The National Works Agency spent approximately
$3.0 billion to carry out temporary restorative works including the reopening of roadways to
restore access to vehicular traffic.
Sections of the island’s power delivery system were also impacted by the event resulting in loss
of service to some 12,000 customers in the parishes of Kingston, St Andrew, Clarendon, St
James, St Ann, St Catherine, Hanover and St Mary. Service was restored to most of the island
within 2 days of the event.
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The water sector reported $27.3 million in damage to the island’s water infrastructure due to high
levels of turbidity, blocked and damage intake structures, catchment damage and other
infrastructural damage. This resulted in disruption of service to customers in Kingston and St.
Andrew (KSA), Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Ann, St. Mary and Portland. The NWC reported a
total loss of revenue of $78.5 million which, when combined with the cost of damage and loss
resulted in a total cost of $105.8 million.
Productive Sectors
Damage and loss sustained by the productive sectors - agriculture, livestock and forestry, was
estimated at $814.9 million, $796.4 million of which was damage and $18.5 million loss and
additional costs. Damage to domestic and agricultural crops and livestock amounted to $794.2
million or 20.0 per cent of the total cost of damage and loss related to the event. Seventy-one
farming communities across ten parishes were impacted with over 10,000 farmers or 5.5 per cent
of the total registered farmers reporting loss of livestock and over 1,000 hectares of crops. The
heavy rains also delayed sugar cane production in Jamaica and adversely affected the 2016/17
reaping period. Damage to irrigation systems amounted to $2.1 million with the systems in St.
Thomas and St. Catherine being impacted the most. While damage to forest resources was
minimal, the Forest Department reported that 15.4 km of forest roads in Portland sustained
scouring to road surfaces and erosion in some areas.
Social Sectors
The rainfall events disrupted the lives of many Jamaicans as the island was blanketed by heavy
showers between May 16 and 17. A large percentage of the population was unable to make it to
work resulting in general loss of productivity over the period. The impact on education and
health care infrastructure was minimal but the population lost access temporarily to the services
of these facilities due to flooding, impassable roadways and low staff turnout.
The total cost of the impact of the event on the health sector was estimated at $41.96 million, of
which damage accounted for $20.39 million and loss, $21.57 million. A number of health
facilities had varying levels of structural damage during the passage of the trough and all
hospitals reported minor leaks, with major leaks being reported at the May Pen Hospital and
Kingston Public Hospital. The Ministry of Health (MOH) also reported that loss of electricity at
the health centre in Kellits,Clarendon resulted in the loss of all vaccinations in stores. The
excessive flooding and ponding of water in some parishes, especially Clarendon, led the MOH to
boost their on-going vector control programme by providing additional financial and human
resources to guard against the proliferation of mosquito breeding sites. The heavy rains resulted
in the death of one adult male in Kellits and injury to another in Sunnyside, Linstead, St.
Catherine.
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In the education sector, the teaching learning process was interrupted by the heavy rains as
eleven parishes were impacted by school closures on Tuesday May 16. Some 816 public
institutions (early childhood to secondary level institutions) with an estimated 391,421 students
enrolled and some 20,236 teachers on staff were affected by the closures. There were also
disruptions for some students sitting some papers of the Caribbean Secondary Examination and
the Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examinations.
Damage to housing infrastructure was also reported in a number of parishes. Of the 750
households assessed by the MLSS, 237 reported some type of damage to the housing structure
with households in St. Catherine, St. Mary, and Clarendon being most affected by the flood
rains. Five households reported that their homes were totally destroyed2; four in Clarendon and
one in Portland. Fifty-five per cent of the homes which were damaged and all the houses which
were completely destroyed were made of wood.
Affected Population
Some 2,474,535 persons across 11 parishes were impacted by the flood rains, representing 90.6
per cent of the total population. OPDEM Situation Reports indicated that some 73 communities
were directly impacted by flooding and landslides associated with the event. Persons resident
within the parishes of Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Thomas, and Westmoreland were among
those most impacted by the floods. A total of 750 households comprising 2,408 persons (759
females and 863 children) were assessed by the MLSS to receive emergency relief assistance due
to damage to houses, household items, crops and farm animals. The disabled and elderly were
among the vulnerable groups impacted by the floods and accounted for 15.5 per cent (116) of the
respondents of the MLSS assessment.
Some 8,862 crop farmers and 1,402 livestock farmers suffered damage amounting to $794.2
million while shopkeepers, small restaurant owners and other small businesses experienced
losses due to damage to stocks caused by flooding and loss of customer support due to damaged
roads and bridges or roads blocked by landslides which limited access.
Environment
Impacts to ecosystems as a result of the event were observed primarily in the parishes of
Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Thomas and St. Mary. The marine environment was negatively
impacted by increased debris and silt deposited at the mouth of major waterways due to runoff.
There was low impact on mangroves and marshlands although some habitats, especially that of
crocodiles, were disrupted. There was substantial erosion along natural water courses especially
2 The ODPEM Situation Reports recorded that two houses in St. Mary were destroyed by landslides. These were
notcaptured in the MLSS assessment.
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the Rio Minho in Clarendon, Rio Cobre & Rio Magna in St. Catherine and the Port Maria River
(Pagee River) in St. Mary. Landslides were mostly confined to the hilly areas where the
underlying geological condition contributed significantly to slope failures. Poor agricultural and
construction practices were also cited as other contributing factors to slope instability. Of note,
however, was the observation that communities which practised climate-smart agriculture and
sustainable farming techniques experienced minimal damage.
Emergency Operations
The ODPEM’s emergency operations included the activation of the National Emergency
Operation Centre; the coordination of a multi-agency team consisting of the Ministry of Health,
Jamaica Defence Force, Jamaica Fire Brigade and other designated first responders; and the
management of some 13 emergency shelters at the height of the event. Approximately $4.4
million of relief supplies (tarpaulins, blankets, mattresses, water (cases), raincoats and water
boots) were distributed from the ODPEM stores to affected areas while the MLSS distributed
$46.4 million in relief supplies and emergency grants to flood victims including 983 food
packages to 675 households across 9 parishes between May 17 and 18. The total cost of relief
operations amounted to $50.8 million.
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 The Meteorological Phenomenon
On the evening of Saturday May 13, a trough west of the island began to produce periods of light
to moderate showers with isolated thunderstorms across eastern, south-central and western
parishes. The forecast for an expected increase in rainfall for most of the week was issued in a
News Release on Sunday, May 14 by the Meteorological Service Jamaica (MSJ). On Monday
May 15, atmospheric conditions deteriorated and a flash flood warning3 was issued at 5am for
low-lying and flood prone areas within the parishes of St Mary, Portland, St Thomas, Kingston,
St Andrew, St Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester, St Elizabeth and Westmoreland. A flash flood
watch4 was issued for low-lying and flood prone areas in Hanover, St. James, Trelawny and St.
Ann.
The flash flood warning and watch remained in effect on Tuesday May 16 and Wednesday May
17. However, on Thursday May 18 at 5am the warning was downgraded to a flash flood watch
for all parishes. The trough remained in the vicinity of the island and continued to influence
weather conditions for the next two days. Light to moderate showers affected mainly central and
eastern parishes, and showers and thunderstorms central and western ones.
The flash flood watch was extended to all parishes until Friday May 19, with satellite imagery
and radar reports showing light to moderate showers affecting southern parishes during the night
into the morning of the 19th
. The flash flood watch was discontinued at 5am on Saturday May 20
when these imagery and reports showed significantly lower levels of rainfall activity during the
night. There were still forecasts for showers and thunderstorms to linger mainly over western and
central parishes in the afternoon and windy conditions in sections of southern parishes; however,
the trough weakened later that day into the next prompting the discontinuation.
1.2 The Severe Weather Event
An analysis of the rainfall event between May 13 and 17 was carried out by MSJ using Radar
summaries, surface charts, satellite imagery and daily rainfall measurements from manual rain
gauges and automatic weather stations. The analysis was done with respect to the 30-year mean
(1971-2000) and the Return Periods for 2-year, 5-year and 10-year.
The analysis of satellite imagery showed that a large area of showers and thunderstorms
remained across the island from 9:45pm on May 15 to 6:45am on May 16 (Figure 1.1).
Radar imagery taken at 9pm on May 15 showed that the shower and thunderstorm activity was
confined to the centre of the island affecting mostly the parishes of St Ann and Clarendon.
Analysis of the 6-hour rainfall accumulation from 1am to 6am on May 16 showed that the
3 A flash flood warning means flooding has been reported or will occur shortly.
4 A flash flood watch means flooding is possible and precautionary measures should be taken.
2
highest rainfall accumulations occurred in St Ann and northern Clarendon. (Appendix 1A). The
highest 6-hour rainfall accumulation recorded was 197.8mm. This reading was taken at the
weather station at Middlesex in St Ann. The second highest was 133.0mm, which was recorded
at the weather station in Mason River, Clarendon and the lowest 6-hour rainfall accumulation
(13.4mm) was recorded at Mitchell Town in southern Clarendon.
Figure 1.1: Satellite Imagery of the Central Caribbean on May 15 and 16, 2017
Left: Satellite imagery taken at 9:45pm on May 15; Right: Satellite imagery taken at 6:45am May 16.
Source: MSJ
At 1am on May 16 the shower and rainfall activity remained over the centre of the island with
the most intense activity over the parish of St Ann and at 6am the activity was widespread across
the island with highest intensities occurring in Clarendon and St Catherine (Figure 1.2). The 6-
hour accumulated rainfall from 1am to 6 am on May 16 showed highest rainfall accumulation in
Manchester, Trelawny, St Ann, St Catherine and Clarendon.
Figure 1.2: Radar Imagery of the May 2017 Rains
Left: Radar Imagery at 6am on May 16; Right: 6-hr accumulated rainfall from 1am to 6am on May 16
Source: MSJ
3
MSJ monitors a network of 224 rainfall stations across the island which record accumulated
rainfall over a 24-hour period. To conduct analysis of the May 2017 rains, MSJ utilised data
from selected rainfall stations in the 11 affected parishes5. Data from a total of 118 stations were
analysed, analysis for 57 of which was with respect to the parish mean. The analysis showed that
24-hour rainfall activity was highest on May 15 at most stations, with the station at Enfield, St
Catherine recording the highest activity at 390.0mm (Appendix 1B). Among these 57 stations,
rainfall volumes in 32 exceeded their 30-year means by 100.0 per cent or greater and four by
200.0 per cent or greater. The four stations were Cave Valley in St Ann, Enfield in St Catherine,
Manchester Pastures, Manchester, and Beckford Kraal in Clarendon (see Appendix 1B). The
parish of St Catherine had the most stations (8) exceeding their 30-yr means, followed by St
Thomas (6), Manchester (4) and Clarendon (4).
Analysis of return period6 was conducted for 90 stations. The maximum 24-hr rainfall per station
was used to analyse rainfall intensity. The return periods used were T2 (Two Years), T5 (Five
Years) and T10 (Ten Years). Data showed that 22 of the stations analysed exceeded their T2
return period, 7, their T5 return period and six their T10 return period (Map 1.1 and Appendix
1C). Further analysis also showed that two stations (Cave Valley and Enfield) exceeded their
100-year return period and two (Beckford Kraal and Tivey Penny) their 50-year return period.
The total volumes of rain recorded at these stations for the period were 466.3mm; 449.8mm;
480.1mm; and 402.2mm, respectively (see Appendix 1B).
5 The parishes were Clarendon, Manchester, St Ann, Kingston, St Andrew, St Catherine, St Elizabeth, Portland, St
Mary, St Thomas, and Trelawny. These were chosen based on analysis of radar and satellite imagery.
6 A return period refers to the average length of time in years for an event of a given magnitude to be equalled or
exceeded (http://www.brighthubengineering.com/hydraulics-civil-engineering/41744-hydrology-for-return-period-
estimation-of-rainfall/)
4
Map 1.1: Stations by Return Period Exceedance
The hydro-meteorological network managed by the Water Resources Authority (WRA) also
recorded the extreme precipitation which characterised the period. The WRA is responsible for
monitoring 129 streamflow stations and 34 intensity rainfall gauges that records daily streamflow
for rivers at a particular point and the amount and intensity of rainfall respectively. Under the
Improving Climate Data and Information Management Project of the Pilot Programme for
Climate Resilience, the country’s hydro-meteorological network is being upgraded through the
retrofitting of intensity rainfall gauges and streamflow gauges with “e-trackers” to facilitate the
transmission of hydro-meteorological data in real time. The 8 intensity rain gauges and 6
streamflow gauges (Map 1.2) that were retrofitted with “e-trackers” provided data to support the
following analysis.
5
Map 1.2: Location of Streamflow stations and Intensity Rain Gauges Retrofitted with E-
Trackers
Source: WRA
All intensity rain gauges indicated increased rainfall between May 14 and 197. Four rain gauges
(Goshen Mocho, Ewarton, Riversdale and Glengoffe) showed a sharp increase in rainfall
intensity between 12 midnight and 8 a.m on May 16. In the case of the Ewarton rain gauge
precipitation intensity rose from over 2.0 inches (50.0 mm) to over 15 inches (380.0 mm) within
the space of 8 hours on May 16 (Figure 1.3)
The Cedar Valley Rain Gauge recorded the highest precipitation of 19.2 inches(486.6mm) over
the period (Figure 1.3).
7 Rainfall intensity is usually measured by inches/5 mins
6
Figure 1.3: Total Rainfall at Selected Intensity Rain Gauge, May 14 - 19, 2017
Source: WRA
Where streamflow is concerned, the Plantain Garden River streamflow gauge registered peak
stages of 13.8ft (4.2m) on May 16 (Figures 1.4 and 1.5). See Appendix 2 for details on rain
intensity gauges and streamflow station readings.
Figure1.4: Streamflow Levels at Plantain Garden River, May 14-19, 2017
Source: WRA
Cottage(MileGully)
Goshen Ewarton Riversdale GlengoffeGurneyMount
CedarValley
HopeRiver
Peak Precipitation (mm) 238.76 284.73 420.62 277.88 183.90 424.69 486.66 211.58
0.00
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
7
Figure1.5: Peak Streamflow Levels at Selected Rivers (m)
Source: WRA
The use of real time streamflow and rainfall data in this event proved particularly useful as the
WRA was able to remotely monitor the rate at which the rivers in some of the affected areas
were rising. For example based on the real time data transmitted from the streamflow gauge at
the Rio Cobre, the WRA was able to take precautionary steps to ensure that the flood warning
system was functional. The information was shared with the ODPEM and triggered the closure
of the Bog Walk Gorge, avoiding a situation where vehicles and people could be trapped in the
gorge.
Overall, the volume of precipitation over the 5-day period contributed significantly to all
parishes recording above-normal rainfall for May relative to the 30-year (1971-2000) monthly
mean. This led to the island recording average rainfall in May of 389.0mm, the equivalent to
193.0 per cent of the 30-year monthly mean. Rainfall volumes exceeded the 30-year mean by a
low of 123.0 per cent (380.0mm) in Hanover to a high of 302.0 per cent (420.0mm) in
Clarendon. This event coupled with those in March and April resulted in accumulated mean
rainfall for Jamaica for the first five months of 2017 being 940.0 mm, or 153.0 per cent of the
30-year mean.
Cabarita River atGrange
Martha BraeRiver at
FriendshipRio Bueno River Hope River
Plantain GardenRiver (PGR)
Peak Flow (m) 3.639312 2.365248 1.88976 1.685544 4.209288
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
8
1.2.1 Emergency Actions and Expenditure
1.2.2 Emergency Actions
The Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) activated the
National Emergency Operation Centre (NEOC) at Level 28 on Tuesday May 16 at 12pm to
coordinate response to the widespread flooding and landslides associated with the trough. All
parish representatives were also mobilised for activation of Parish Emergency Operation Centres
(PEOCs) on that same day. Two PEOCs were fully activated in Clarendon and St Catherine and
two partially activated in Manchester and St Elizabeth. Shelter managers were also put on
standby in affected parishes for activation of emergency shelters, thirteen of which were
activated on that same day (see section on Shelter Management). The NEOC remained activated
at level 2 until Saturday May 20 when it was activated at Level 1 and eventually deactivated at
6pm.
The NEOC was supported by a multi-agency team that provided support as follows:
1.2.2.1 Health
The MOH partially activated its Emergency Operation Centre (EOC) at 8:30am on Tuesday May
16 to provide, inter alia, up-to-date information on the health situation and health sector
performance; emergency medical care as required; and to coordinate response between the
Ministry and other emergency response entities. Staff of the Emergency Disaster Management
and Special Services Unit, the Environmental Health team, Public Relations team and Health
Promotion team were called in to man the operations of the EOC.
The Ministry’s EOC provided response to sewage problems at Porus Health Centre; inspected
the flooded Harbour Cold Stores Limited at Port Bustamante in Kingston; and investigated
reports of a fish kill in the Rio Cobre. The Ministry also activated an effluent control plan to
stymie the overflow from a Windalco waste stabilization pond into the Rio Cobre at Vanity Fair
in St Catherine. PH level tests were also conducted by the Ministry in that area.
Guidance on facilities that were opened and alerts for Gastroenteritis and Leptospirosis was
issued by way of press releases.
1.2.2.2 Shelter management
At the height of the event between May 16 and 17, some 13 emergency shelters were opened in
the parishes of Clarendon and St Catherine. The maximum occupancy was 30 persons (12
children and 18 adults) on May 17 (Figure 1.6). Twenty-one of the occupants were female (Table
1.1) . On Saturday May 20, four occupants remained at Linstead Primary. The Parish Welfare
8 There are 3 levels at which the NEOC are activated as follows: Level 1: Monitoring Phase (ODPEM staff); Level
2: Preparedness Phase (ODPEM staff and select first responders; and Level 3: Full Response Phase (ODPEM staff,
first responders and support agencies.
9
Team sought alternative arrangements for these men who were only using the shelter at night for
sleeping. By Monday May 22, all emergency shelters were closed.
Table1.1: Shelter Occupancy by Date, Shelter and Gender
Date Parish Shelter Name Number of Occupants Total
Adults Children
M F Sub-
total
M F Sub-
total
16-May-17 St
Catherine
House in Bullet
Tree (Red Cross
Volunteer)
- - 1 - - 5 6
Gregory Park
Primary - - 1 - - 0 1
17-May-17 St
Catherine
Alternative
Shelter Red
Cross Volunteer
5 8 13 3 9 12 25
St Catherine
Infirmary
1 0 1 0 0 0 1
Linstead Primary 0 4 4 0 0 4
18-May-17 St
Catherine
Alternative
Shelter Red
Cross Volunteer
5 8 13 3 9 12 25
Linstead Primary 0 4 4 0 0 4
19-May-17 St
Catherine
Alternative
Shelter Red
Cross Volunteer
5 8 13 3 9 12 25
Linstead Primary 4 0 4 0 0 0 4
20-May-17 St
Catherine
Linstead Primary 4 0 4 0 0 0 4
Source: ODPEM
10
Figure 1.6: Shelter Occupancy between May 16 and 20, 2017
Source: ODPEM
1.2.2.3 Welfare and Relief
The Parish Health and Welfare sub-committees of the Ministry of Labour and Social Security
met on Tuesday May 16, reviewed operational procedures and reported on state of preparedness.
Parish Managers opened lines of credit for the procurement of supplies on that same day. The
Ministry through its sub-committees and in collaboration with ODPEM, Jamaica Red Cross,
Salvation Army and Food for the Poor provided relief to the families affected by the heavy rains.
Relief distribution began on Wednesday May 17 in the parishes of Portland and St Catherine,
and was extended to the parishes of Clarendon, St Ann, St Thomas, St Mary, St Elizabeth,
Trelawny and Manchester throughout the week of the trough. Relief items provided included
food packages, mattresses, blankets and stoves (Table 1.2).
The Ministry also conducted an assessment of household damage with the assistance of multi-
agency teams comprising representatives from Jamaica Red Cross, Salvation Army, Poor Relief,
Social Development Commission, and Social Workers from the Ministry. A total of 750
households comprising 2,408 persons (759 female and 863 children) were assessed (See Table
1.3).9 Respondents to the household assessments comprised 456 females and 294 males.
Respondents were not necessarily heads of households. In some cases it was the household
member in possession of a Tax Registration Number (TRN) who was asked to respond on behalf
of the household.10
9 This number includes households impacted by rains between May 17 and June 20, 2017.
10 Relief assistance from the MLSS is only paid to respondents with a TRN.
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
16/05/2017 17/05/2017 18/05/2017 19/05/2017 20/05/2017
Nu
mb
er o
f O
ccu
pan
ts
Date
11
Table1.2: Relief Distributed on May 17 and 18, 2017, by the MLSS
Parish Communities
affected
Estimated
number
of
families
#
assessed
Relief Items Distributed
Food
Package
Mattress/
bed bases
Tarpaulin Sheets
and
blankets
Stove Hygiene
kits and
related
Clarendon Frankfield River,
Pennant, Trout
Hall Pass, Aenon
Town, Boghole,
Crooked River
370 39 352 31
St.
Catherine
Big Pond, Sunny
Side, Guys Hill,
Redwood, Beacon
Hill, Johns, Rd,
Instead, Ewarton
445 398 458 14
45
12 50
blankets
84 sheets
8 25 (wash
rags)
St. Ann Cave Valley,
Douglas Pass,
Lime Hall,
Middlesex
130 41 99
St. Thomas Dalvey, Bath,
Danvers Pen,
Wheelerfield,
Seafort,
Springfield,
Barking Lodge
80 24 63 10 23 15 1
St. Mary Warner St./lane,
Port Maria
100 142 11 11 5 (HK)
St.
Elizabeth
Lititz, Brinkley,
Buena Vista
15 2
Manchester Victoria Town,
Mile Gully
5 1
Portland Windsor Forest,
Port Antonio,
Manchioneal,
Fruitful Vale
40 29 8
Trelawny Zion 15 -
Total 1 200 675 983 120 35 149 9 30
Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security
12
Table 1.3: Persons Impacted by Flood Rains (As Assessed by the MLSS May – June 2017)
Parish Female Male Children (0-18) Total
Clarendon 39 37 48 124
Manchester/Clarendon 30 42 50 122
Portland 36 38 42 116
St.Ann 55 59 62 176
St. Catherine 428 444 467 1339
St.Mary 158 147 175 480
St.Thomas 13 19 19 51
Total 759 786 863 2408
Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security
1.2.2.4 Rescue Operations
Approximately 300 families from 10 communities in Clarendon, St Catherine and St Ann were
marooned and several communities rendered inaccessible due to landslides and flooded roads.
Rescue operations were carried out on May 16 in Sunnyside Linstead where four rescue boats
were deployed by the ODPEM to the Jamaica Defence Force (JDF) to recuse approximately 30
persons who were trapped in flood waters. Of the persons rescued, 10 were children; one adult
male had to be hospitalized. Two rescue boats were also dispatched to St Ann for possible relief
and rescue operations on Wednesday May 17. The JDF also provided support by airlifting food
and relief supplies to marooned residents in Trout Hall, Clarendon (Figure 1.7). Three young
men were commended by the Prime Minister for their act of bravery in rescuing five members of
one family who were trapped after they climbed onto a wall to escape rising waters in Sunnyside,
Linstead.
13
Figure 1.7: Emergency Actions in Clarendon
Left: Relief distribution in Trout Hall Clarendon, Right: Initial Damage Assessment Team in Frankfield, Clarendon
Source: ODPEM
1.2.2.5 Road/Drainage Clearance
The National Works Agency (NWA) responded to several calls from across the island for
clearance of roadways, drains and gullies that were blocked or impassable. The Agency effected
restorative works following the rains to restore access to vehicular traffic along major roadways
and to assist residents in communities in the parishes of St Catherine, Clarendon and Portland
that were cut-off. Works were also carried out in St Thomas and St Mary in response to reports
of breakaways.
1.3 Affected Population
The latest Population Census conducted in 2011 estimated the population usually resident in
Jamaica to be 2,697,983. The projected end of year population for 2016 was 2,730,894
(1,378,142 female). Some 2,474,535 persons across 11 parishes were impacted by the flood
rains, representing 90.6 per cent of the population. The ODPEM indicated that some 73
communities were directly impacted by flooding and landslides associated with the event.
Persons resident within the parishes of Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Thomas, St. Mary and St.
Ann were among those most impacted by the floods (see Map 1.3, showing the affected
communities).
Latest available data from the Survey of Living Conditions 2014 show that the prevalence of
poverty was 20.0 per cent, being highest (24.9 per cent) in Rural Areas. Household Poverty,
reported as 13.6 per cent at the national level, was also highest in Rural Areas (17.6 per cent).
The fact that most of the communities severely impacted by the flood rains are primarily rural
communities with high prevalence of poverty is indicative of the high levels of vulnerability of
persons living within these areas.
14
Map 1.3: Communities Affected by the May 2017 Rains
Source: ODPEM
1.3.1 Vulnerability of Women and Children
Of the 2,408 persons assessed by the MLSS, 69.0 per cent (1,622) were women and children.
Media reports indicated that some women and children impacted by the floods had to abandon
flooded houses and relocate to relatives in neighboring communities or other parishes. Of note
was a story which was carried live on television of a family of five (two women, three children)
in Sunnyside, St. Catherine who were stranded for hours after they climbed on a fence to escape
flood waters11
.
The disabled and elderly were also among the vulnerable groups impacted by the floods and
accounted for 15.5 per cent (116) of the respondents of the MLSS assessment. (See Table 1.4).
The house that was totally destroyed in Fruitfulvale, Portland was home to an elderly couple and
11
“Desperate families appeal for help in Linstead as floodwaters rise”, The Gleaner, May 16, 2017
15
it was reported that in Pennants, Clarendon, a wheelchair-mobile woman, children and other
elderly residents had to seek shelter in a shop after their home was flooded.12
Table 1.4: Physical Condition of Respondents of MLSS Household Assessment
Parish Able-Bodied Aged Disabled
St. Mary 132 19 2
Manchester/Clarendon 36 2 1
Portland 27 1 1
St. Ann 35 7 3
St. Catherine 351 61 8
St. Thomas 21 3 1
Clarendon 32 5 2
TOTAL 634 98 18
Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security
1.4 Impact on Livelihoods
Where livelihoods were concerned, over 10,000 farmers13
suffered loss of crops and livestock
amounting to approximately $794 million. Farmers associated with the Ebony Park and Spring
Plain Agro Parks in Clarendon indicated that the floods had set back their production by at least
3 months. They reported loss of cash crops (Scotch bonnet pepper, melon, tomatoes, zucchini,
and okra) that were ready for reaping but had become water logged due to the heavy rains. Some
farmers also reported damage and loss of irrigation infrastructure (pipes, sprinklers, stakes, and
tubing), farm tools and equipment as well as losses related to delayed earnings14
(See chapter on
the Productive Sectors). Losses were also experienced by shopkeepers, small restaurant owners
and other small businesses as they experienced damage to stocks due to flooding and loss of
customer support due to lack of access caused by damaged roads and bridges or roads blocked by
landslides.
12
“Several parishes devastated by landslides, flooding” The Gleaner, May 17, 2017
13 Data disaggregated by gender was not available at the time of preparation of this report.
14 “Post-flooding problems plaguing Clarendon farmers”, Jamaica Observer, June 6, 2017
16
1.5 Relief Expenditure
Total cost of relief operations amounted to $50.80 million. This included $944,807.00 and $3.45
million expended by the ODPEM to assist with relief efforts and shelter management between
April 21-23, 2017 and May 14 and 19, 2017, respectively, as well as $46.40 million for relief
distribution in April and May by the MLSS. Details of ODPEM’s and MLSS’s expenditure are
outlined in Tables 1.5 and Table 1.6 below:
Table 1.5: MLSS Expenditure - April and May Rains 2017
Relief Supplies/Grants Cost ($)
Supplies taken Via Line of Credit by Parish Offices 318,396.00
Supplies for Ministries Warehous (Central Food Organisation) 12,500,000.00
Emergency Grants to Victims of April Flooding 9,680,000.00
Emergency Grants to Victims of May Flooding 18,900,000.00
Grants yet to be paid*1 5,000,000.00
TOTAL 46,398,396.00 1. This amount is yet to be paid to victims who are having challenges with presenting their Tax Registration Numbers (TRN) which is a pre-
requisite for the benefit.
Source:MLSS
Table 1.6: ODPEM Expenditure for Relief Supplies - April and May 2017 Rains
April 21-23,
2017
Description Quantity Cost ($)
Tarpaulin 50 200,645.00
Blankets 60 206,400.00
Sheets 50 50,000.00
Mattress 60 459,000.00
Water (cases) 24 28,762.00
Total 944,807.00
May 14-19, 2017
Tarpaulin 301 821,331.00
Blankets 60 206,400.00
Mattress 250 1,936,674.00
Water (cases) 339 420,401.75
Raincoat 9 22,320.00
Water boot 15 40,815.00
Total 3,447,941.75
Grand Total 4,392,748.75
Source: ODPEM
Costs associated with the use of boats and helicopter for response and relief activities were not
available at the time of reporting.
17
2 SOCIAL SECTORS
The rainfall events had a negative impact on the lives of Jamaicans in and around the affected
communities. While impact on education and health care infrastructure was minimal the
population lost access temporarily to the services of these facilities due to flooding, impassable
roadways and low staff turnout. Damage to housing infrastructure was also reported in a number
of parishes. The following sections capture the details of how the event impacted the health,
education and housing sectors. Except for $16 million allocated by the Ministry of Health
(MOH) for vector control, there were no costs available for the damage and loss to the social
sectors.
2.1 Health
The MOH delivers health-care services to all 14 parishes through four Regional Health
Authorities. The health authorities are responsible for managing 22 general and specialist
hospitals and 328 health centres. The MOH’s Emergency, Disaster Management and Special
Services Branch reported that the total cost of the impact of the event on the health sector
amounted to $41.96 million, of which damage accounted for $20.39 million and loss, $21.57
million15
. The bulk of the cost for damage was attributed to roof damage while vector control
activities, water quality monitoring and environmental health sanitation accounted for 95 per
cent of losses and additional costs. (Table 2.1)
A number of health facilities developed varying levels of structural damage as a result of the
trough. All hospitals reported minor leaks, with major leaks being reported at the May Pen
Hospital and at the Kingston Public Hospital (KPH) because of missing windows in the 3 North
section of the latter. There were also reports of flooding and fallen ceiling tiles at the Spanish
Town Hospital (STH) in St Catherine due to water saturation. Flooding was also reported in
some sections of the Port Antonio Hospital, Portland and in the Accident and Emergency (A&E)
Department of the Annotto Bay Hospital, St Mary.
15
Costs were not available for the parishes of St. James, Hanover, St. Elizabeth, Manchester, and Clarendon
18
Table 2.1: Damage and Loss Sustained by the Health Sector
PARISH DAMAGE ($)
LOSS and ADDITIONAL
COSTS ($)
PARISH
TOTAL ($)
Infrastructure (Roof)
St. Catherine 20,389,995.00 including: EHU-a: 16,214,911.00
Vaccine - 127,879.74*1
37,737,785.74
Health Centres - 8.3M
Spanish Town Hospital - 10M
Linstead Public Hospital - 2M
Furniture - 89, 995.00
EHU-b: 80,000.00
To establish Health EOC in
Linstead: 400,000.00
Latrine replacement: 525,000
St. Thomas 0.00
EHU-a + EHU-b -
2,471,786.00 2,471,786.00
St. Ann 0.00 EHU-a: 943,112.60 1,012,312.60
EHU-b: 24,272.00
EHU-c: 44,928.00
Portland 0.00 EHU-a: 350,000.00 670,000.00
EHU-b: 120,000.00
EHU-c: 200,000.00
Trelawny 0.00 EHU-a: 70,000.00 70,000.00
TOTAL 20,389,995.00 21,571,889.34 41,961,884.34 1 -All Types except Act Hib totaling 410 doses, exchange rate J$129:US$1
EHU-a – Vector Control Activities, EHU-b – Water Quality Monitoring, EHU-c – Environmental Health Sanitation
Source: Ministry of Health
Health Centres (HCs) were similarly affected. Minor leaks were reported at most HCs and major
leaks at eight (Map 2.1). Flooding was reported at five HCs (see Map 2.1) and records were lost
from three, namely, the Red Hills, Olympic Gardens, and Norman Gardens Centres. Kellits HC
and Crofts Hill HC (both in Clarendon) reported power outages. Kellits HC further reported
operating without electricity because of a burnt-out generator. This resulted in the loss of all
vaccinations in stores.. The heavy rains affected staff turnout at the health facilities. The MOH
reports that staff turnout was 50.0 per cent to 57.0 per cent on May 16, at the height of the event.
2.1.1 Service Delivery During the Event
The MOH indicated that on May 16, 2017 health care services were delivered at varying levels
across all four Divisions:
In the North-Eastern Region the laboratory at the St. Ann’s Bay Hospital was closed and staff
was reduced in support areas. The Ocho Rios Health Centre, in St. Ann was also closed and
patients were directed to the Exchange Health Centre.
In St. Mary primary care patients from Port Maria Health Centre were seen at the Port Maria
Hospital and the St. Margarets Bay Health Centre in Portland was closed due to flooding.
In the South-Eastern Region the KPH operated with reduced staff in A&E and conducted only
emergency surgeries, while the Linstead Hospital discharged 50.0 per cent of its patients.
19
Map 2.1: Health Facilities Affected by the May 2017 Rains
As it regards HCs, pharmacy services were disrupted due to poor staff turnout. All health centres
in St. Thomas were closed except Morant Bay. Seventeen of the 26 in St. Catherine opened with
full service. The Sydenham, Kitson Town, Cumberland Road, Old Harbour, Watermount,
Bartons, Conners, Lluidas Vale, Redwood Health Centres, however remained closed.
Southern Region: The Chapelton and Lionel Town Hospitals were impacted by low staff turn-
out and suspended pharmacy services while doctors at the May Pen Hospital had to do double
shifts as the staff turn out at the facility was very low. A similar situation was experienced at the
Black River Hospital which reported overcrowding in addition to the issue of reduced staff.
Where the health centres were concerned, five were closed in St. Elizabeth (Aberdeen
(inaccessible), Springfield, Maggoty, Pepper and Lacovia) and the staff redirected to other
clinics. Of the 32 health centres in Clarendon, only four (May Pen, Chapelton, Raymond,
Spalding Health Centres) were opened and offered services.
20
In the Western Region the Orthopaedic Clinic of the Sav-La-Mar Hospital reported flooding in
some corridors. The Falmouth Hospital was also affected by flooding on the compound but
services continued. One HC, Adelphi, was closed due to flooding.
By May 17 all public hospitals across the island were back in full operation with staff turnout of
80.0 – 100.0 per cent of nurses and 95.0 per cent of doctors, in most host hospitals reporting for
duty. Operations at all but five HCs were also back to normal on May 17.
2.1.2 Vector Control
In response to the eminent increase in mosquito breeding sites due to the flooding in several
parishes and communities, the Ministry of Health provided additional support to procure
supplies and employ temporary workers to supplement existing Vector Control Workers in
carrying out increased duties. The parishes include St. Ann, Portland, St. Mary, Clarendon,
Manchester, St. Elizabeth, Trelawny, Kingston and St. Andrew and St. Catherine, those most
affected by the heavy rains and flooding.
The heightened vector control activities included oiling where there was pooling of water,
monitoring for the Anopheline mosquito, increased fogging and larvicidal activities in the
affected areas. Educational material related to the control of nuisance mosquitoes was also
developed and supplies distributed where needed and reminders were issued to the public to take
the necessary precautions to reduce and/or eliminate all mosquito breeding sites in and around
homes and communities.
2.1.3 Morbidity and Mortality
The heavy rains resulted in the death of one adult male in the Kellits area, Clarendon. One adult
male was also reportedly hospitalized after rescue operations in Sunnyside Linstead.
2.2 Education
The teaching learning process was interrupted by the heavy rains associated with the trough but
physical impacts on school infrastructure was limited to flooding and leaks. The MOEYI issued
a school closure advisory to all schools, except those in western parishes. As a result, all schools
in 11 parishes were closed on Tuesday May 16 (see Map 2.2). Some 816 public institutions
(early childhood to secondary level institutions) with an estimated 391,421 students enrolled and
some 20,236 teachers on staff were affected by the closures (Table 2.2).16
Students sitting various subjects in the Caribbean Secondary Examination Certificate and
Caribbean Advanced Proficiency Examination were affected by either being unable to sit their
examinations or being diverted to alternative examination centres because of extensive flooding
16
Based on data from the Education Statistics 2015-2016.
21
in some areas 17
. The MOEYI encouraged all students sitting external examinations to contact
their schools or to find the nearest centre provided it was safe to do so, as the exams could not be
rescheduled
Map 2.2: Parishes affected by School Closure on May 16, 2017
17 Information on the number of students who did not attend the exams was unavailable at the time of report
preparation
22
Table 2.2: Number of Public Institutions by Parish
Number of Schools Students Enrolledᵃ Teachers
Kingston 45 33,936 1,703
St Andrew 107 78,809 3,934
St Thomas 47 14,567 857
Portland 49 13,701 818
St Mary 65 19,598 1,075
St Ann 76 29,068 1,428
Trelawny 39 15,528 800
St James 57 35,234 1,572
Hanover 40 14,369 696
Westmoreland 68 26,097 1,171
St Elizabeth 85 28,634 1,489
Manchester 74 29,952 1,581
Clarendon 108 48,692 2,574
St Catherine 121 78,936 3,977
Total 981 467,121 23,675
ᵃ Includes only students enrolled at the Early Childhood, Primary and Secondary Levels
Source: Education Statistics 2015 – 2016, MOEYI
2.3 Housing
Of the 750 households assessed, 237 reported some type of damage to the housing structure.
Based on the information provided by the MLSS, households in St. Catherine, St. Mary, and
Clarendon were most affected by the flood rains (See Figure 2.1). Five households reported that
their homes were totally destroyed; four in Clarendon and one in Portland. The majority of
respondents (706) also reported damage to household items including food, furniture and
clothing, this a direct result of the severe flooding associated with the rains (Table 2.3).
23
Figure 2.1: Damaged Houses across the island
Table 2.3: Damage Reported by Households Assessed by the MLSS (May – June 2017)
Source: MLSS Assessment
Parish HH
Damage
to
Household
Items
HH
Loss of
Crop/Animal
HH
Minor
Damage
(Roof)
HH
Severe
Damage
HH
House
Totally
Damaged
Portland 27 5 1 1
St.Ann 39 1 12 5
St.Catherine 408 6 135 20
St.Mary 139 6 17 7
Manchester 7
Clarendon 67 1 4 6 4
St. Thomas 19 13 7
Total 706 14 186 46 5
From left: Damaged house in Redwood, St Catherine; destroyed home in Fruitful Vale, Portland; water
mark on house in Sunnyside Linstead. Sources: (L-R, ODPEM, Jamaica Observer & NEPA)
24
The majority of households (33.0 per cent) reported that they occupied homes that were owned
by a member of the household while 23.0 per cent either rented or leased the property (See
Figure 2.1). The tenure pattern generally reflected that of the wider population.
Where the housing stock is concerned, houses in Jamaica are largely constructed of Block and
Steel which accounts for some 68.4 per cent of the housing stock. The use of wood as the
material of outer wall is highest, however in the rural areas (30.1 per cent). Most of the houses
(55 per cent) damaged by the rains (Totally Destroyed, Severely Damaged, Minor Damage
(Roof) were made of wood and 33 per cent made of block and steel (Table 2.4). All five houses
that were totally destroyed were made of wood. None of the severe to totally damaged houses
were insured which implies that costs for repairs and “building back better” will have to be
covered by the homeowner.
Figure 2.2: Property Tenure- Households Impacted by Flood Rains (May- June 17)
Source: MLSS Assessment
Family Land 31%
Lease 13%
Other 11%
Owner 33%
Tenant 10%
No Response 2%
25
Table 2.4: Material of Outer Wall of Houses Damaged by Flood Rains (May-June)
Parish Material of Outer Wall Total
Block &
Steel
Board Concrete
Nog
Wattle &
Daub
Other
St. Mary 5 18 0 0 1 24
Portland 1 5 1 0 0 7
St. Ann 7 7 2 0 1 17
St. Catherine 57 79 15 2 2 155
St. Thomas 4 12 1 0 3 20
Clarendon 5 9 0 0 0 14
TOTAL 79 130 19 2 7 237
Source: MLSS Assessment
26
3 PRODUCTIVE SECTORS
There was significant damage to the productive sectors (agriculture, livestock and forestry,
industry, tourism and commerce), primarily to agriculture and livestock. The cost of damage
sustained by the productive sector was estimated at $814.9 million, $796.4 million of which was
damage and $18.5 million loss and additional costs, the latter of which constituted an allocation
to farmers impacted by floods in April 2017. The grant was used to provide seeds, feeds,
fertilizers and chickens (Table 3.1). The impact on the sectors is detailed in this chapter.
Table 3.1: Damage and Loss Sustained by the Agriculture Sector
Sector Damage ($ ) Loss ($) Total
Domestic Crop & Agricultural Crops 718,006,202.00 718,006,202.00
Livestock 76,202,000.00 76,202,000.00
Irrigation 2,130,000.00 2,130,000.00
Grant to Farmers (April Rains) 18,500,000.00 18,500,000.00
Forestry 80,000.00 80,000.00
796,418,202.00 18,500,000.00 814,918,202.00
3.1 Agriculture
For calendar year 2016, the agriculture sector grew by 13.5 per cent and accounted for 7.3 per
cent of Gross Domestic Product. The improved performance was attributed to more favourable
weather conditions vis-à-vis the previous year which was impacted by drought conditions across
the island. With the recovery of the sector, growth for 2017 was projected at 1.8 per cent18
.
However, with the damage incurred by the May 2017 flood rains, the revised projection is for a
flat out-turn in real value added. As at January 2017, persons in the Agriculture, Hunting and
Fishing industry group accounted for 16.9 per cent (200,700) of the employed Labour Force.
This comprised 49,400 females and 151,300 females.
The widespread flooding and land slippages associated with the trough resulted in damage to the
agriculture sector estimated at $796.4 million. Some 10,262 farmers or 5.5 per cent of the total
registered farmers suffered losses of crops and livestock. Seventy-one farming communities
across 10 parishes were impacted (Table 3.2). Farmers within the eastern agriculture zone were
the worst affected, accounting for 90.0 per cent of the farmers reporting losses (Map 3.1). Within
the eastern zone losses were greatest in the parishes of Clarendon, St Catherine and St Ann.
18
PIOJ’s estimate
27
Table 3.2: Farming Communities Impacted by Flooding
Parish Districts Affected by Floods
St. Ann Douglas Castle, Cave Valley, Fast George, Aboukir, Bamboo, Mt. Mariah, Cowley, Pedro
River, Borobridge, Seville
Clarendon
Bog Hole, Mason River, Good Hope, Frankfield, Ebony Park, Trout Hall, Rhoden Hall,
Aneon Town, Tollgate
St. Catherine Colbeck, Amity Hall, Greg Hill, Linstead, Treadway, Luidasvale, Hill Run, Bernard Lodge
St. Thomas:
PGR, Hagley’s Gap, Cedar Valley, Yallahs, Ramble, Penlyne Castle, Windsor Forest, Leith
Hall, Rowlands Field
St. Mary Highgate, Guys Hill, Carron Hall, Labrynth, Richmond, Dover
Portland Windsor, Spring Garden, Nonsuch, Hart Hill, Manchioneal, Rio Grande Valley
St. Andrew Mavis Bank, Roberts Field, Davis Hill, Mt. Salus
St. Elizabeth Balaclava, Newton, Myersville
Manchester
Maid Stone, Medina, Pusey Hill, Old England, New Forest, Huntley, Mount Prospect,
Wilderness, Restore, Lincoln, Banana Ground, Coffee Grove, Colley Ville, Porter Town
Trelawny Warsop & Wire Fence
Source: MICAF
Map 3.1: Jamaica Agricultural Zones
28
Eighty-six per cent of the farmers reporting losses were crop farmers whose fields were affected
by flooding and crop spoilage associated with waterlogged conditions (Figure 3.1). This was
exacerbated by slow run-off due to fields being saturated from torrential rains in April. This
resulted in a number of crops, such as potatoes, corns, okras, and cucumbers rotting. Other areas
of impact included loss of top soil and acres of crops being washed away. The estimated acreage
of farms damaged or lost, as reported by the Ministry of Industry, Commerce, Agriculture and
Fisheries (MICAF) was 1,001.84 hectares (Table 3.3).
Figure 3.1: Damage to Farmlands associated with the May 2017 rains
Livestock farmers reported losses of cows, goats, pigs, poultry - broiler and layer, and bee
colonies. The total value of livestock losses reported was an estimated $76.2 million (see Table
3.3).
Table 3.3: Summary of Damages to the Agriculture Sector
Zone Estimated # of
Hectares
Lost/Damaged
Estimated Value
of Crop Losses
($)
Estimated Value
of Livestock
Losses
($)
Estimated
No. of Crop
Farmers
Affected
Estimated
No. of
Livestock
Farmers
Affected
Eastern Zone 748 526,940,000.00 n/a 7,915 1,300
Western Zone 254 191,066,202.00 n/a 947 102
Jamaica 1,002 718,006,202.00 76,202,000.00 8,862 1,402
Source: MICAF, 2017
A number of agro-parks were also adversely impacted by the rains. The Plantain Garden River
Agro-Park in St Thomas, which covers approximately 117 hectares, was severely flooded when
the river overflowed its banks. The result was loss of onions, pumpkins and other crops.
Left: Minister without portfolio within the MICAF Hon JC Hutchinson looks on as Portland farmer explains the
extent of damage to his farm, Source: Jamaica Information Service; Right: Female farmer from Clarendon
showing her waterlogged farm, Source: Jamaica Observer.
29
Irrigation lines were also washed away. The section of the park dedicated to organic farming was
totally destroyed by the flood. Some sections of Ebony Park and Spring Garden Agro Park in
Clarendon, and New Forest/Duff House Agro Park in Manchester and St Elizabeth were also
flooded resulting in massive crop loss.
A tour of affected farming communities by MICAF and RADA indicated that over 200 acres of
agricultural lands in sections of Bog Hole, Clarendon and Douglas Castle, St. Ann were
inundated by the rains seen as the “greatest disaster since the 1980’s”. The level of inundation
forced some residents of Douglas Castle (including farmers) to traverse the area via boat.
Where export crops were concerned, the Sugar Association of the Caribbean (SAC) in its crop
data report for the month of May indicated that out of season rain had delayed sugar cane
production in Jamaica and had adversely affected the 2016/17 reaping period. The SAC, also
stated, however, that the country should finish reaping by the end of July and should have more
favourable results for the remainder of the crop year19
.
3.2 Irrigation
The National Irrigation Commission Limited (NIC) is the government organisation responsible
for the provision of irrigation services to the agricultural sector. In addition to irrigation, water is
made available to some industrial and commercial operations through some of its systems. The
Commission’s operations are divided into three regions– Eastern, Central and Western through
which it operates 10 irrigation schemes in five irrigated areas prescribed by the Irrigation Act:
1. Eastern Region: Yallahs, St. Thomas; St. Dorothy, Rio Cobre and Colbeck, St.
Catherine
2. Central Region: Mid-Clarendon; New Forest/Duff House, Manchester
3. Western Region: Braco, Trelawny; Hounslow and Beacon/Little Park, St. Elizabeth;
Seven Rivers, St. James
Its present infrastructure includes 73 pump stations, 207 canal networks and 194.2 kilometres of
pressurized pipelines. Water provided for irrigation is sourced primarily from rivers, wells, mini-
reservoirs, and dams.
The NIC reported damage amounting to $2.1 million in all three regions during the period June
16-18 (see Table 3.4). Damage included eroded access roadways, exposed and scoured pipelines,
damage to roadways, canal banks, collapsed canal walls and eroded sump channel estuary.
Damage sustained in the Eastern region accounted for 63.4 per cent ($1,350,000.00) of the cost.
19
“Recent heavy rains dampen sugar production”, Jamaica Observer, July 12, 2017
30
Table 3.4: Estimated Cost Flood Damages Caused By the Inclement Weather - June 16 -
18, 2017
Region Description Estimated Cost ($)
Western Eroded access roadways, exposed
pipelines
$130,000.00
Brumdec, Thornton
Siloah, Slipe, New River,
Maggotty
Central Scoured and exposed pipe $650,000.00
St. Toolis, #3 Bridge
Upper Rhymesbury, Pass
Side
Eastern Scoured pipeline, roadways, canal banks,
collasped canal walls and eroded sump
channel estuary
$1,350,000.00
RCIW Main Canal, Amity
Hall, SDIA Main Canal,
Thetford,Spring Village
Total $2,130,000.00
Source: NIC
Based on a Land Use Cover Assessment done in 2013, it was estimated that approximately 40.0
per cent (441,295 ha) of land cover is forest, almost 19.0 per cent is classified as having mixed
land use (a combination of any of the forest broad classification with that of non-forest) and the
remaining 41.0 per cent is classified as non-forest inclusive of bamboo, crop plantations,
quarries, water bodies, infrastructure etc. Broadleaf forest (closed and disturbed) accounted for
almost 59.0 per cent (263,000 ha) of total forest cover in 2013.
Assessments of Forest Reserves conducted by the Forestry Department in Clarendon, Portland,
St. Andrew and St. Mary between May 24 and June 6 indicated that damage to forest resources
due to the rainfall event was largely minimal (See Table 3.5). There was however, damage to
15.4 km of forest roads in Portland with scouring of road surfaces and erosion observed in some
areas. Damage to forest lands in Clarendon and landslides in the Bull Head Forest Reserve was
estimated at $80,000.00. In addition, Agro Forestry Plots in that parish were impacted by the
event with severe damage to 0.49 ha of plots.
31
Table 3.5: Damage to Forest Due to May Rainfall Event
Parish Forest Estates Watershed Forest Type Details of Damage Estimated
Recovery
Cost ($)
Portland Lancsater, Shantamae,
Chepstowe, Caenwood, Oatley,
Black Hill, Bowden Pen, Fish
Brook, Adam Brandon,
Cambridge Backlands, Blue
Mountain, Bellevue, Fellowship
Driver’s River,
Rio Grande
Plantation,
Broadleaf, Open
Dry (tall)
Minimal damage to
forest land but very
marked damage to
approximately 15.4
km of road
n/a
Clarendon Bull Head, James Hill and area
managed by Private Planter
Rio Minho Plantation Limited Damage to
Forest Land; serious
and destructive
damage to .49 ha of
Agro-forestry plots;
marked damage to
forest roads (landslides
observed in Bull Head
80,000
St. Mary Gray’s Inn, Tremolesworth,
Cape Clear, Rock River, Juno
Pen, Nutsfield
Buff
Bay/Pencar,
Wagwater
Plantation,
Broadleaf
Very minimal damage
to forest land, agro-
forest plots and forest
roads
n/a
St. Andrew Rose Hill and Mount Airy Hope River Plantation Very minimal damage
to forest land and
forest trails; very
marked damage to
forest roads
n/a
Source: Forestry Department
32
4 INFRASTRUCTURE
4.1 Introduction
Electricity, water and sanitation, transport and communication are commonly referred to as a
country’s infrastructure. As with previous hydro-meteorological events the country’s
infrastructure bore the brunt of the impact of the event. Since 2001, damage and loss related to
infrastructure has cumulatively accounted for $54.8 billion or 42.6 per cent of the overall costs
related to extreme weather events. Of this amount, damage to transportation infrastructure
accounted for 87.0 per cent.
The rains during the months of March to June, 2017 resulted in significant damage to the
transportation infrastructure with the complete destruction of a number of roads and bridges
which were swept away or compromised by the unprecedented amount of rain. Pre-existing
conditions such as aging infrastructure, design standards as it relates to carrying capacity, and the
infrequency of maintenance of transportation infrastructure played a significant role in the extent
of the damage experienced. The complete loss of some road infrastructure and the blockage of
roads due to landslides also curtailed movement of citizens and cut off whole communities for
days in some instances. Infrastructure related to key utilities such as water supply and power
generation was also impacted leaving many customers without service for a few days. The total
damage and loss associated with these rains was $3.1 billion, with damage and loss amounting to
$182.4 million and $2,955.2, respectively. Details of damage and loss per industry are
disaggregated in Table 4.1 below.
Table 4.1: Infrastructure – Damage and Loss ($Million)
Damage
($million)
Loss
($million)
Total
($million)
Electricity n/a n/a n/a
Water 27.3 78.5 105.8
Transport 155.1 2 876.7 3,031.8
TOTAL 182.4 2,955.2 3,137.6
33
4.2 Electricity & Water Supplies
Prior to the rain events, the first of which was March 18 – 22, 2017, the Electricity & Water
Industry recorded growth in real value added of 3.7 per cent for 2016 relative to 2015. The 2016
outturn resulted from expansion in both electricity consumption, up 3.6 per cent to 3,173.4
million kilowatt hour (KWh) and water production, up 8.4 per cent to 317,060.1 megalitres. The
outturn for the former was attributed to increased electricity demand consequent on the improved
performance of some Goods and Services industries, while higher rainfall levels influenced the
outturn of the latter. Higher real value added of 0.5 per cent was also estimated for January-
March 2017 relative to the comparable quarter of 2016. This expansion reflected an increase of
0.3 per cent to 758.1 million kilowatt hours (kWh) in electricity consumption20
and an upturn of
1.9 per cent to 79,261.0 megalitres in water production. The increase in electricity consumption
emanated from a rise in energy sales, while the growth in water production was facilitated by
higher rainfall levels.
Based on increased electricity consumption for the month of April, an expansion in real value
added is projected for the April-June 2017 quarter. However, this may be derailed by the
disruptions associated with the different rain events of the period.
4.2.1 Electricity Sub-industry
The Jamaica Public Service Company (JPSCo) is the sole transmitter of electricity in the island,
with a generating capacity of approximately 903 megawatts, of which 262 megawatt is
purchased from independent power producers (IPPs). At the end of 2016, the company had a
bona fide customer base of approximately 620,000, consisting of several categories —
Residential (Rate 10); General Service (Rate 20); Power Service (Rate 40); Large Power (Rate
50); Street Lighting (Rate 60) and Other, which comprises generating companies, such as the
bauxite industry.
The event caused some damage to sections of the island’s power delivery system, resulting in
outages to customers in several parishes. On May 16, electricity service providers, the Jamaica
Public Service, reported that some 12,000 customers in the parishes of Kingston, St Andrew,
Clarendon, St James, St Ann and St Mary were without electricity. The company deployed
technical teams to restore service to the affected sections of these parishes but the pace of
restoration was hampered by continuing rain, landslides and flooding. Damage to sections of the
power delivery system resulted in outages to customers in:
20
Electricity consumption = total generation + station use - line losses.
34
KINGSTON & ST ANDREW: Lawrence Tavern, Belmont, Florence Hill, Cassava
River, Waterloo Avenue, Plantation Heights, Roberts Field, Mount Charles, Seamore
Lands, Johnson Town, Nannywille, Vineyard Town and Drewsland
ST MARY: Moneague, Dillon Town, Highgate, Port Maria, Cypress District, Cascade
HANOVER: Esher, Dias
ST ANN: Cascade, Wild Cane District, Iron Gate
ST JAMES: John's Hall, Spring Mount, Tangle River
CLARENDON: Hayes Square, Denbigh Dr., Frankfield
ST CATHERINE: Sections of Portmore, Old Harbour, Sandy Ground, Golden Acres.
By May 18, service to most of the island was restored to normal operations. Less than 1.0 per
cent of the customer base, or over 7,000 customers were still without supply. The majority of
these were in Clarendon, where JPS teams continued to experience challenges restoring
electricity, due to inaccessible locations. The affected communities in Clarendon included:
Danks to Pennants, Woodhall and surrounding areas. Other communities which were still
affected by outages at that time included: sections of Mavis Bank, Perkins Boulevard, and
Queensborough in St. Andrew; Camberwell in St. Mary; Gobay District, Mount Rosser and
Williamsfield in St. Catherine; and Hopewell and St. Leonards in St. James (Table 4.2).
No estimates of the cost of the damage to power generation infrastructure were available at the
time of preparation of this report.
Table 4.2: Status of Power Outage as at May 18
Parishes No. of
Outages
No. of Customers Out Major Areas Out
KSAN 20 391 Glengoffe- Mtt Matthews,
Brandon Hill & Junction Rd
KSAS 10 13
Portland 10 10
St Mary 20 1179 Gayle , Lodge , Camberwell
35
Parishes No. of
Outages
No. of Customers Out Major Areas Out
St Thomas 7 84
Region East 67 1677
Hanover 14 115 Cold Spring
St Ann 6 258
St Elizabeth 0 0
St James 11 95
Trelawny 1 1
Westmoreland 3 23
Region West 36 492
Clarendon 10 2,874 Danks to Pennant ( inaccessible ),
Woodhall ( inaccessible)
Portmore 6 1858 Cookson Pen
Manchester 1 3
St Catherine 20 540 Kitson Town to Content, Bellas
Gate Square
Region
Central
37 5275
TOTAL 140 7 444
Source: JPS
4.3 Water Supply & Sanitation
Approximately 90.0 per cent of the country’s potable water is supplied by the National Water
Commission (NWC). This is done from its network of Wells; Water Treatment Plants and Intake
Works; Booster/Relift Stations and harnessing infrastructures; Tanks and Reservoirs and a large
network of Transmission/Distribution pipelines. These infrastructure are highly exposed to
weather related conditions as well as also being predisposed to disturbances associated with
electrical outages especially given the high dependence on electricity from the national energy
grid to power some of its operations.
36
The impact on the water sector from rain events during the March-May period was confined
mainly to the parishes of Kingston and St. Andrew (KSA), Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Ann, St.
Mary and Portland. Disruptions to the service stemmed from:
High levels of turbidity at some facilities
Flooding at some facilities
Blocked Impoundment, sump and water way
Blocked and damaged intake structures
Blocked/flooded roads and access ways
Catchment damage
Power supply issues
Restoration cost of approximately $27.3 million was reported. This combined with total revenue
loss of $78.5 million resulted in total cost of $105.8 million.
4.4 Transport
For 2016, real value added for the Transport, Storage & Communication industry grew by 0.5
per cent relative to 2015, driven by expansion in both the Transport & Storage and the
Communication sub-industries. For the Communication sub-industry, the growth stemmed
mainly from the continued buoyancy in the telecommunication segment, while the expansion in
the Transport & Storage subcategory was supported by increased activities at the island’s
airports. For the January–March 2017 quarter, prior to the rains, an estimated 0.5 per cent growth
was recorded for the industry, attributed to the higher value added for both the Transport &
Storage and Communication sub-industries.
4.4.1 Road Transport
As is the case with most hydro-meteorological events impacting the island, the transportation
infrastructure bore the brunt of the total damage to the sector. The May rains exacerbated
weaknesses in the transportation infrastructure which had surfaced/re-surfaced due to rainfall
events in the previous months (March and April)21
.
The parishes of St. Thomas, Clarendon and Manchester were most impacted with damage
amounting to $757.7 million, 626.5 million and 508.6 million respectively (Figure 4.1). The
impact on the road infrastructure was mainly on Primary Ground Routes and Bridges. With
regard to the former, this was caused by landslides, breakaways, scouring, fallen trees, silting of
roadway, flooding, blocked drains, while for the latter, there was scouring, abutment and pier
failure (See Figures 4.2 and 4.3).
21
The estimates of damage provided by the National Works Agency (NWA), therefore included costs incurred to
address damages caused by rainfall events for the periods March 18-22, April 16-23, May 1-10, May 13-18, 2017,
and June 16-18, 2017
37
Figure 4.1: Total Cost of to Re-open Roadways by Parish
Source: NWA
Figure 4.2: L-R: Severely scoured road in Cave Valley, St. Ann Right: Flooding Big Pond,
St. Catherine
Source: Parish Disaster Coordinators
-
100.00
200.00
300.00
400.00
500.00
600.00
700.00
800.00
Total Cost to Re-open Roadways (March - June Rains 2017)
$million
38
Figure 4.3: L-R: Alley Bridge, Clarendon Right: Washed out Bridge in Redwood,
St. Catherine
Source: Parish Disaster Coordinators
Consequently, the NWA responded to several calls from across sections of the island, to
ensure that several major roads, drains and gullies were cleared. The preliminary estimates
in relation to temporary restorative works including the re-opening of roadways between March
18 and June 18 are outlined in Table 4.3. The bulk of the cost was attributed to the May 13 – 17
and April 16 to 23 rainfall events which accounted for $1.7 billion and $671.2 million
respectively (See Appendix 3 for detailed costs.)
39
Table 4.3: Cost for Temporary Restorative Works and Reopening of Roadways
Rainfall Event Total Estimate ($) Cost To Reopen ($) Balance To Complete ($)
March 18 - 22 3,370,000.00 3,370,000.00 -
April 16-23 671,205,480.00 352,705,000.00 318,500,480.00
May 1-10 31,840,000.00 14,820,000.00 17,020,000.00
May 13-17 1,757,501,090.00 944,900,260.00 812,600,830.00
June 16-18 412,822,850.00 162,222,850.00 250,600,000.00
TOTAL 2,876,739,420.00 1,478,018,110.00 1,398,721,310.00
Source: NWA
The foregoing represents the costs of response activities by the NWA to ensure that major roads,
landslides, drains and gullies were cleared to allow other first responders to access areas that may
have been impassable or cut off. This would also involve clearing of Parish Council Roads which
are brought to the attention of the NWA by municipal corporations or by other means during the
emergency restoration works. The estimated cost to reopen the roads represents the minimum
funds required to restore access to the commuting public as this represents costs incurred and
debt to Contractors. The costs indicated do not include major reconstruction/replacement of
bridges, repairs and re-surfacing of roadways, repairs to damage to drains and reconstruction of
drains. At the time of reporting, the NWA had not yet embarked on any restoration or
rehabilitative works, as further consultations with relevant ministries will be required.
Based on the NWA’s assessment some 100 roads were affected by the rains and major
rehabilitation is to be done to two bridges in Clarendon, two bridges in St. Mary, one Box
Culvert and a breakaway in St. Catherine and a river training in St. Mary. The preliminary
estimated costs for the major infrastructure rehabilitation are outlined in Table 4.4.
40
Table 4.4: Major Impacts - Flood Damage (May 2017) - Select Areas
Item Description Parish Cost ($) Nature of
Works
Remarks
1 Alley Bridge Clarendon $12,000,000.00 Rehabilitation
of
Bridge
Preliminary
2 Southwood
/Dam
Head Bridge
Clarendon $32,000,000.00 Rehabilitation
of
Bridge
Preliminary
3 Juno Crescent Clarendon $23,000,000.00 Box Culvert Drawing and
BQ Complete
4 Wood Park
Bridge
St. Mary $10,000,000.00 Rehabilitation
of
Bridge
Preliminary
5 Tiber River
Bridge
St. Mary $9,600,000.00 Rehabilitation
of
Bridge
Preliminary
6 Riverside Park St. Catherine $41,500,000.00 River Training Preliminary
7 Dover Road
Breakaway
St. Catherine $27,000,000.00 Retaining Wall Preliminary
Total $155,100,000.00
Source: NWA
41
5 IMPACT ON THE ENVIRONMENT
5.1 Impact of the Disaster on the Environment
The National Environment and Planning Agency performed a rapid environment and planning
assessment in seven parishes to determine the impact the extreme weather condition on the
various ecosystem services and infrastructure and to make appropriate recommendations and
mitigation strategies that could be implemented in the future to reduce impact in these areas22
.
The assessment which covered the parishes of Clarendon, St. Catherine, St. Thomas, St. Ann,
Manchester, St. Mary and St. Elizabeth revealed that the rainfall resulted in flooding which was
confined to areas that were relatively flat, had poor internal drainage and/or limited drainage
infrastructure (Map 5.1).
Noticeable damage was done to the marine environment, especially at the mouth of major
waterways due to increased debris and silt in the runoff. While there was disruption of habitats
especially that of crocodile, there was low impact on mangroves and marshlands in the areas
assessed along the southern coastline. Substantial erosion along natural water courses especially
the Rio Minho in Clarendon, Rio Cobre & Rio Magna in St. Catherine and the Port Maria River
(Pagee River) in St. Mary was also observed.
Landslides were mostly confined to the hilly sections of the respective parishes where the
underlying geological condition contributed significantly to slope failures. Poor agricultural and
construction practices were also cited as other contributing factors to slope instability. A number
of the impacted areas also had previous history of flooding and landslide. The impact on forest
areas was due mainly to land slippage.
22
While the assessment done by NEPA included impacts on physical infrastructure and social impacts, this chapter
will focus primarily on the impacts to the natural environment. Impacts to infrastructure and social impacts are
included in the chapters dedicated to those issues.
42
Map 5.1: Parishes Covered in the Post Climatic Disaster Assessment
The assessment of the impact on the environment was conducted using the format outlined in
Appendix 4 consistent with the Damage and Loss Assessment Methodology for Environmental
Impact of Disasters.
5.1.1 Impact on the parish of Clarendon
The high level of precipitation experienced in Clarendon during the passage of the trough,
created bouts of flooding and land slippage in the upper and lower regions of the Watershed
Management Units of Milk River and Rio Minho, affecting a myriad of ecosystem services in the
parish. Anecdotal testimonials suggest that these levels of flooding were last experienced in
1976. This evidence is consistent with a 50-year flood event that is calculated in development
models. Generally, impacts observed in Clarendon were widespread spanning communities in
lower Clarendon on the plain and northern Clarendon in the hilly interior including Alley
(Bridge), Farquhar Beach, Kemps Hill High School, Milk River, Osbourne Store, Toll Gate, May
Pen, New Longsville, Ivy Store, Chapelton, Danks, Ballards River, Crooked River, Pennants,
Trout Hall, Park Hall, James Hill, Desire, Frankfield, Green River and Bog Hole (See Map 5.2).
43
Map 5.2: Communities Included in the Post-Climatic Disaster Assessment in Clarendon
Source: NEPA
5.1.1.1 Forest Ecosystem
The impact to forest ecosystem was minimal and included fallen trees from land slippages and
well as the dislocation of vegetation along river banks (See Table 5.1).
5.1.1.2 Aquatic Ecosystems
The main natural water ways in the parish namely the Rio Minho and Milk River as well as the
coastal waters were impacted by increased volume of water which resulted in extensive erosion
of the river banks and sedimentation of the marine environment downstream (Table 5.2). The
shoreline adjacent to the Farquhar Beach was heavily silted as evident by the chocolate brown
colouration of the water. The wetland systems along the Clarendon coastline were also impacted
by siltation. From observations, the Rio Minho overflowed its banks and inundated the main road
and homes in close proximity. It is estimated that the flood waters rose as high as 2-3m in areas
(Figure 5.1). Several landslides were also observed along the main road which resulted from
saturation of the slopes during the prolonged rainfall. Among the communities impacted by the
overflowing of the Rio Mino were Pennants and Frankfield; or where the river rose to 1.8m
above the channel
44
Table 5.1: Summary of Environmental Impact – Forest Ecosystem - Clarendon
Disaster type : Flooding
Forest Ecosystem : Secondary Forest Location (Parish/community) : Milk River , Crooked River & James Hill Watershed : Milk River & Rio Minho
Type Affected
Area
(ha)
Extent
of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long) Degree of
Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Coastal forests
(Milk River )
n/a Local Long Term23
Minimal
Secondary
Forest
(Crooked River)
n/a Local Long Term Minimal
Disturbed Broadleaf Forest
n/a Local Long Term Minimal
Source: NEPA
Figure 5.1: Heavily Silted Wetland System in close proximity to Milk River Bath
Source: Rapid Assessment Team, NEPA
23
The minimal impact relates to the extent of the damage in relation to the overall ecosystem. In this case the
recovery is long-term as it will take some time for the forests to regrow and for its functionality to be restored.
45
Table 5.2: Summary of Environmental Impact – Rivers - Clarendon
Disaster type : Flooding
Freshwater Ecosystem : Rivers
Location (Parish/community) : Clarendon Watershed : Milk River and Rio Minho
Type Affected
Area
(ha)
Extent of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of
Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Rio Minho n/a Local Long Term
Severe
Milk River n/a Local Medium Low
Disaster type : Flooding
Coastal Ecosystem : Sea
Location (Parish/community) : Coastal water in the vicinity of Rio Minho & Milk River Watershed : Milk River and Rio Minho
Type Affected
Area
(ha)
Extent of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of
Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Mangrove n/a Local Medium Moderate
Coastal Water n/a Local Medium Moderate
Source: NEPA
Residents in James Hill reported that some of the farms were impacted. However, those that
practised climate smart agricultural techniques experienced minimal damage. The vegetation
cover in that community is relatively dense and has helped to stabilize the watershed.
Additionally, the James Hill community has benefitted from a number of watershed interventions
especially as it relates to sustainable farming techniques along slopes and this may be one of the
reasons for the reduced level of impact (Table 5.3). The community has also benefitted from the
demonstration of climate smart practises under the Government of Jamaica /Adaptation Fund
Programme.
46
Table 5.3: Summary of Environmental Impact- Agro-Ecosystem -Clarendon
Disaster type : Flooding
Agro-ecosystems : Farm lands
Location (Parish/community) : James Hill& Bog Hole Watershed : Rio Minho
Type Affected
Area
(ha)
Extent
of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of
Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Semi- permanent crops
n/a Extensive Medium Term Severe
Source: NEPA
The farming community of Bog Hole was also severely impacted by flood waters which
inundated vegetable farms and other crops. The area was flooded from the rising of the
groundwater to several feet above the surface which completely covered all crops recently
planted (Figure 5.2).
Figure 5.2: Inundated Farmlands in Bog Hole, Clarendon
Source: NEPA
5.1.2 Impact on the parish of St. Catherine
The areas assessed in St. Catherine included Bog Walk; Sunny Side, Linstead; Dover Gully; the
main road leading to Guys Hill (Devil’s Race Course, Guys Hill, Mount Rosser, Phoenix Park);
47
and a section of the North-South Highway. Environmental impacts identified were eroded river
banks, sedimentation of coastal waters and loss of vegetation due to land slippages (See Table
5.4).
Table 5.4: Summary of Environmental Impact in St Catherine
Disaster type : Flooding
Freshwater Ecosystem : Rivers
Location (Parish/community) :St. Catherine, Dover Watershed : Rio Cobre
Type Affected
Area (ha)
Extent of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Rio Cobre n/a Local Medium Moderate
Rio Magno n/a Local Medium Severe
Disaster type : Flooding
Coastal Ecosystem : Sea
Location (Parish/community) : Coastal water in vicinity of Rio Cobre Watershed : Rio Cobre
Type Affected
Area (ha)
Extent of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Mangrove n/a Local Medium Moderate
Coastal Water (vicinity of
Bowers Gully & mouth of Rio
Cobre
n/a Local Medium Moderate
Disaster type : Flooding
Forest Ecosystem : Secondary Forest
Location (Parish/community) : Rio Cobre Watershed
Type Affected
Area (ha)
Extent of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Field & Secondary
Forest (Guys Hill)
n/a Local Long Term Minimal
Source: NEPA
Landslides and rock fall were evidenced along the Guys Hill Main Road. Approximately 11 were
recorded. This led to the dual carriage way being reduced to a single lane road in some sections.
The general area is characterized by very erodible soils with moderate to steep terrain which
makes the area highly susceptible to land slippage. Notwithstanding, poor agricultural and
48
construction practices on slopes may have compounded the problem. There was no significant
damage observed to the environment or infrastructure in the Bog Walk Gorge. There was
however, evidence of an elevated water level in the gorge as seen in the water mark that was left
on the hillside. The water mark was roughly 15 – 20 feet (1.5-3m) above the level of the road
(see Figure 5.3).
Figure 5.3: Approximate Water Level in the Bog Walk Gorge
5.1.3 St. Thomas
In central and southern St. Thomas, the communities of Poor Man’s Corner, Red Hills,
Yallahs/Pamphret, York, Seaforth Town Square, Serge, Port Morant, Bath, Whelersfield and
Bowden in St. Thomas were assessed. The main type of damage observed throughout these
communities included extensive flooding, siltation, erosion of the sidewalk, slippages in the hilly
areas and overflowed Earthen drains (See Figure 5.4).
In the vicinity of the community of York, the Morant River eroded a substantial portion of its
banks threatening the viability of the existing roadway which leads towards the Seaforth square.
The existing groins were demolished and houses were severely damaged by the flood waters.
49
Figure 5.4: Erosion and Siltation of the River at York
5.1.4 Impact on St. Mary
Assessment of the Frontier Beach in the northern section of the town of Port Maria indicated that
the beach was littered with large amounts of land-based debris which flowed from the Otram
River (formerly Port Maria River) and other gullies and drains that enter the port (Figure 5.4).
The beach is approximately 1.5km long and the eastern section is utilized by local fisherman as a
fishing beach. This debris consisted of large fragments of tree trunks and branches, clusters of
bamboo and man-made garbage such as plastic bottles and discarded items. Debris was clustered
around the fishermen boats and hence would negatively affect their livelihood; being unable to
launch their boat vessels. The summary of the environmental impact is captured in Table 5.5.
Figure 5.5: Debris deposited on Frontier Beach, Port Maria
Source:NEPA
50
Table 5.5: Summary of Environmental Impact in St Mary
Disaster type : Flooding
Coastal Ecosystem : Beach
Location (Parish/community) : Port Maria
Watershed : Pagee River
Type Affected
Area
(ha)
Extent of
Damage
Recovery Term
(short/medium/long)
Degree of
Environmental
Impact
(see classes of EI)
Beach n/a Local Medium Severe
Source:NEPA
The Otram River passes next to the Sand Side community and most of the impacts occurred
along the river course. The bridge, at the point where the river crosses the North Coast Highway,
was not directly affected but the large amount of debris that was washed downstream could be
seen lodged under the bridge, obviously impeding the flow of the river. Severe erosion was also
observed along the convex side of the river bend. In one instance, a large cluster of bamboo that
was growing along the bank was eroded and a portion of a pig sty that was constructed on the
bank was washed away. The Otram River bank is reinforced with gabion baskets by the North
Coast Highway Bridge but residents complained that the original design had the reinforcement
extended further along the length of the river.24
5.2 Other Parishes
Based on observations, damage to the natural environment in Manchester and St. Ann was
minimal.
5.3 Waste Management
The National Solid Waste Management Authority is responsible for serving the island through
the provision of solid waste management services across the island. The country is demarcated,
for management purposes, into four regions otherwise termed wastesheds: The Riverton,
Retirement, Southern and Northeastern wastesheds. Each region is made up of two or more
parishes with accompanying disposal sites for the proper disposal of solid waste to ensure
environmental protection, solid waste disease and pest or nuisance control. In 2016, the total
volume of waste collected through formal collection systems was 797 122 tonnes, 18 946 tonnes
24
The convex sections of the affected area between the North Coast Highway and the mouth of the Otram River may
require reinforcement with gabion baskets to mitigate against further erosion.
51
greater than the previous year. Despite the increase in volume, the estimated per capita waste
generation remained at 1.2 kg/day.
As it relates to garbage disposal, 67 per cent of Jamaican households reported using a collection
system as the main method of garbage disposal in 2014, while 2.1 per cent dumped their garbage
at an established municipal disposal site (JSLC 2014). Unregulated or informal methods of
disposal such as burning, burying or dumping were used by some 30.8 per cent of households.
These practices were most prevalent in Rural Areas which accounted for 51.0 per cent of those
households which used informal methods.
The heavy rains which affected the island led to the temporary suspension of garbage collection
in the parishes of Kingston, St. Andrew, St. Catherine, Clarendon, Manchester and St. Elizabeth.
On May 17, the NWSMA indicated that the decision was taken to “ensure the safety of the
agency’s crews and assets” 25
. Many communities were rendered inaccessible due to flooding.
Residents of those communities were asked to containerise their solid waste and securely store
until waste collection resumed. Residents were also asked to refrain from dumping garbage in
gullies and other unauthorised areas in the interest of public health. By May 22, the agency
indicated that garbage collection efforts were at about 80 per cent in all parishes and that
measures were being implemented to reduce the backlog of garbage. Of the parishes impacted,
by debris pile up, Clarendon was most affected considering the fact that sections of that parish
had been flooded due to a period of heavy rainfall in the previous month. The efforts of the
NSWMA at that time involved a major clean up exercise which took over two days to complete
and for which five tipper trucks were added to the agency’s fleet to remove the build-up of
debris. At the time of reporting the costs associated with NSWMA response activities were not
available.
25
“NSWMA suspends garbage collection in some parishes” Jamaica Observer, Wednesday, May 17, 2017
52
6 MACROECONOMIC OVERVIEW
6.1 Introduction
The total value of damage & loss suffered due the passage of the May rains was estimated at
$4.0 billion, which is 0.2 per cent of 2016 GDP (Table 6.1). Of this total, damage incurred
accounted for $1.0 billion or 24.7 per cent and losses and additional costs accounted for $3.0
billion or 75.3 per cent of the total cost. Losses incurred were concentrated in the infrastructure
sector, specifically transport which reported expenditure losses of $2.9 billion, primarily to
reopen blocked roadways. Although the island’s transport infrastructure received the greatest
level of damage, the full cost is not reflected in the report as only preliminary figures were
available at the time of reporting. Damage to the Productive sector was estimated at $0.8 billion
driven by impacts to the Agriculture industry.
Table 6.1: Summary of Damage and Loss from the March to June Rains, 2017
Sector and Sub-sector $
Damage Loss/Additional Costs Private Public Total Share
Total 999,211,766.51 3,046,102,454.09 794,208,202.00 3,251,106,018.60 4,045,314,220.60
% Share 24.70 75.30 19.63 80.37 100.00
Social 20,389,995.00 21,571,889.34 41,961,884.34 41,961,884.34 1.04
Housing 0.00 0.00
Education and Culture 0.00 0.00
Health 20,389,995.00 21,571,889.34 41,961,884.34 41,961,884.34 1.04
Productive 796,418,202.00 18,500,000.00 794,208,202.00 20,710,000.00 814,918,202.00 20.14
Domestic Crop & Agricultural Crops 718,006,202.00 718,006,202.00 718,006,202.00 17.75
Livestock 76,202,000.00 76,202,000.00 76,202,000.00 1.88
Irrigation*1 2,130,000.00 2,130,000.00 2,130,000.00 0.05
Grant to Farmers (April Rains) 18,500,000.00 18,500,000.00 18,500,000.00 0.46
Forestry 80,000.00 80,000.00 80,000.00 0.00
Infrastructure 182,403,569.51 2,955,239,420.00 3,137,642,989.51 3,137,642,989.51 77.56
Electricity
Water Supply and Sanitation 27,303,569.51 78,500,000.00 105,803,569.51 105,803,569.51 2.62
Transport/Roads and Bridges*2 155,100,000.00 2,876,739,420.00 3,031,839,420.00 3,031,839,420.00 74.95
Environment
Emergency Operations 50,791,144.75 50,791,144.75 50,791,144.75 1.26
Government Relief Assistance*3 46,398,396.00 46,398,396.00 46,398,396.00 1.15
ODPEM Recovery Activities*4 4,392,748.75 4,392,748.75 4,392,748.75 0.11
*1 Estimated cost of damage related to rainfall event - June 16-18, 2017
*2 As at May 17. Includes Costs related to events in March 18 - 22 , April 16-23, May 1-10, May 13-17, and June 16-18, 2017
*3 As at June 2
*4 Includes costs related to rainfall events in April 21-23 and May 14-19, 2017
53
6.2 Economic Performance Prior To Flood Rains
6.2.1 Economic Policy
The Government of Jamaica’s macroeconomic programme for FY 2016/17 was within the
context of the Economic Reform Programme which was supported by the Extended Fund
Facility (EFF) with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and subsequently the three-year
precautionary Stand-By Arrangement. The economic programme was aimed at increasing
growth and job creation and strengthening social protection. Specifically, objectives geared
towards achieving sustainable economic growth included:
a reduction in public debt
macroeconomic stability
improved productivity of the labour force
improved competitiveness.
The objective of monetary policy was to engender price stability, while maintaining a flexible
exchange rate. Fiscal policy continued to focus on engendering economic growth via reducing
public debt, facilitating macroeconomic stability, improving productivity and enhancing investor
confidence.
6.3 Labour Market Update 2016
The Jamaica Labour Force Survey, undertaken by the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN),
revealed that the unemployment rate for 2016 averaged 13.2 per cent. This rate was 0.3
percentage point lower than the average for 2015 (Table 6.2). The decrease relative to 2016
reflected a decline in both the male and female unemployment rates by 0.6 and 0.3 percentage
point, respectively. The Employed Labour Force increased by 364,000 to 1,175,150 which was
the highest employment level since the decline in employment that followed the 2008-2009
global economic crisis. The male employed labour force increased by 1.8 per cent or 11,775
persons and the female employed labour force by 5.0 per cent or 24,600 persons.
54
Table 6.2: Main Labour Force Indicators By Sex, 2015–2016
MAIN INDICATORS
2015 2016p
Annual
Average
M F Annual
Average
M F
Labour Force 1 316.7 719.0 597.7 1 353.7 730.5 624.1
Employed Labour Force 1 138.8 647.9 490.9 1 175.2 662.4 515.5
Unemployed Labour Force 177.9 71.2 106.7 178.5 68.2 108.5
Unemployment Rate (per cent) 13.5 9.9 17.9 13.2 9.3 17.6
Job-Seeking Rate (per cent) 9.1 7.0 11.7 8.6 6.1 11.6
Labour Force Participation Rate 63.1 70.3 56.3 64.8 71.2 58.9
Note: Discrepancies are due to rounding, p - preliminary
Source: Statistical Institute of Jamaica
6.4 External Trade Performance
6.4.1 Merchandise Trade
Jamaica’s trade deficit stood at US$3,556.6 million, an improvement of US$345.4 million
relative to 2015. This narrowing of the deficit reflected a fall-off in imports of US$405.4 million
(down 7.9 per cent) to US$4,751.3 million, which outweighed a decline of US$60.0 million
(down 4.8 per cent) to US$1,194.8 in export earnings.
6.4.2 Merchandise Imports
Expenditure on imports totalled US$4,751.3 million, a decline of US$405.4 million relative to
the import spending recorded for 2015. This lower out-turn reflected reduced spending in
Mineral Fuels, Manufactured Goods, Miscellaneous (Misc.) Manufactured Articles, Chemicals.
The decline in imports reflected primarily lower international oil prices. Increased efforts to
displace imports and strengthen intersectoral linkages through increased domestic production of
high quality products also contributed to the decrease in the value of imports.
6.4.3 Merchandise Exports
Earnings from total exports were valued at US$1,194.8 million, compared with US$1,254.8
million recorded in 2015. This reduction (US$60.0 million) stemmed from declines in three of 10
categories, namely:
Crude Material (excluding Fuel) - due mainly to a decrease in the exportation of alumina
and bauxite Mineral Fuels, etcetera and Food.
Mineral Fuels, etcetera - reflected lower pricing on the international market and volumes
for Turbojet A1 Fuel and Bunker C Grade Fuel Oil.
Food - attributed mainly to the reduction in the exportation of sugar.
The lower receipts were tempered by increased earnings from Beverages & Tobacco exports;
Machinery & Transportation Equipment and Misc. Manufactured Articles.
55
Traditional Domestic Exports, which accounted 57.5 per cent of total domestic exports in 2016,
fell by US$138.3 million to US$626.7 million compared with 2015. This was due to lower
receipts from Mining & Quarrying and Manufacture exports of US$106.0 million and US$37.9
million, respectively. Non-Traditional Domestic Exports increased by US$27.6 million to
US$463.9 million compared with 2015. The improved earnings were due to higher receipts in the
categories Food (up US$31.6 million to US$169.0 million) and Beverages & Tobacco (excluding
Rum) {up US$19.9 million to US$49.2 million}.
6.5 Gross Domestic Product
The Jamaican economy grew by an estimated 1.4 per cent during 2016 (Figure 6.1). Growth
resulted from the improved out-turns of the Goods Producing and Services Industries. Economic
performance during the year reflected mainly the impact of relatively stable macroeconomic
environment within which inflation was low; fiscal consolidation was sustained; and
improvements were recorded in the external accounts. This facilitated an increase in confidence
levels. Also contributing to the increase in real GDP were; favourable weather conditions;
increased industrial production; and higher external demand for some products.
The Goods Producing Industry grew by 3.5 per cent compared with 2015. Value added of all
Goods Producing industries with the exception of Mining & Quarrying increased. Real value
added for the Services industry increased by 0.7 per cent, reflecting growth in seven of eight
industries.
56
Figure 6.1: Change In Real GDP For The Jamaican Economy, 2007-2016
6.6 Sectoral Performance
6.6.1 Goods Producing Industry
6.6.1.1 Agriculture
For January–December 2016, real value added for the Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industry is
estimated to have improved by 13.5 per cent relative to 2015. All four quarters of calendar year
2016 recorded growth, which was facilitated by improved weather conditions vis-à-vis drought
conditions that negatively affected production in the previous year. Cumulative mean rainfall for
Jamaica between January and December 2016 was 1,756 mm or 99.0 per cent of the 30-year
(1971–2000) mean compared with the cumulative mean rainfall of 1,309 mm or 74.0 per cent of
the 30-year mean during January–December of 2015.
The Planning Institute of Jamaica’s Agricultural Production Index indicated that for calendar
year 2016, there was improved output for the sub-industries Other Agricultural Crops (up 16.3
per cent), Animal Farming (up 9.5 per cent), Traditional Export Crops (up 1.9 per cent) and Post
Harvest Activities (up 36.2 per cent).
In addition to more favourable weather conditions, the increase in Other Agricultural Crops was
spurred by increased demand as a result of a greater level of contractual arrangements between
farmers and purchasers, which encouraged farmers to increase output and improve quality. The
improvement in Traditional Export Crops was pushed mainly by increased output for banana and
plantain as sugar cane production for the year declined due to the downsizing of operations at
some sugar factories.
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Pe
r ce
nt
Year
57
6.6.1.2 Mining
Real value added fell by 3.2 per cent for the Mining & Quarrying industry for 2016. This out-
turn was attributed to a decrease in production of Crude Bauxite, by 25.3 per cent to 3,596.9 kilo
tonnes, while Alumina production remained relatively flat at 1,865.3 kilo tonnes. Exports of
Crude Bauxite and Alumina for 2016, both registered respective declines of 24.2 per cent to
3,455.4 kilo tonnes and 5.3 per cent to 1,833.9 kilo tonnes. Against the background of decreased
exports, earnings for 2016 totalled US$546.0 million, a decrease of 16.1 per cent compared with
2015. The average price of Alumina was US$248.60/tonne, down from US$272.28/tonne and the
average price of Crude Bauxite fell from US$27.03/tonne to US$26.08/tonne.
6.6.1.3 Manufacture
Real value added for the Manufacture industry grew by an estimated 0.2 per cent for 2016. The
performance was positively impacted by both the Food Beverages & Tobacco and Other
Manufacturing sub-industries.
For 2016, real value added for Food Beverages & Tobacco was estimated to have increased
relative to 2015. This performance was driven by the output from both the Food and Beverages
& Tobacco components.
Output for the Food Processing component was estimated to have increased relative to 2015.
This was attributed mainly to higher production levels for Poultry Meat; Animal Feeds and
Bakery Products. Contrary to this, Sugar and Molasses production fell by 35.9 per cent and 21.0
per cent to 86,062 tonnes and 54,207 tonnes, respectively. Within the Beverages & Tobacco
subcategory there was an 11.5 per cent increase in Carbonated Beverages and a decline of 10.6
per cent in Rum & Alcohol.
Real value added for the Other Manufacturing sub-industry was estimated to have increased.
Production in the Rubber & Plastic Products subcategory improved relative to 2015. This
performance was attributed to an increase of 7.5 per cent in Other Plastic Products to 14,111,980
bottles. The products recording the largest increases included: Cups, Half Gallon Bottle, 10 oz.
Juice Bottle.
This improvement was also supported by increased output from Non-metallic Mineral for the
January–March 2016 and April–June 2016 quarters.
6.6.1.4 Construction
Real value added for the industry was estimated to have increased by 0.4 per cent in 2016. The
out-turn was influenced by increased Building Construction activities. This reflected several non-
residential programmes, including hotel renovation and expansion and other commercial
projects. This was complemented by the establishment of residential homes. The Other
Construction component of the industry declined, due to reduced civil engineering activities
associated with road infrastructure and development.
58
6.6.2 Services Industry
6.6.2.1 Electricity & Water Supply
The Electricity & Water Supply industry was estimated to have expanded by 3.7 per cent during
2016 relative to 2015. This out-turn resulted from increases in electricity consumption and water
production. This was due primarily to increased electricity demand and higher rainfall levels,
respectively.
Electricity generation grew to 4,349.3 GWh, an increase of 3.3 per cent. Higher electricity
production was facilitated by respective increases in output from JPS and non-JPS sources of 1.1
per cent to 2,557.02 GWh and 6.7 per cent to 1,792.1 million kGWh.
A 8.4 per cent (to 317,060.1 megalitres) increase in water production reflected increased rainfall
during the year. This reflected higher output from Kingston, St. Andrew and St. Thomas as well
as other parishes.
6.6.2.2 Transport, Storage & Communication
The Transport, Storage & Communication industry grew by an estimated 0.5 per cent in 2016
relative to 2015. This performance reflected increases in real value added recorded for all four
quarters. The expansion in real value added was supported mainly by growth in the
Communication segment of the industry, reflecting the buoyancy in the telecommunication
segment of the industry linked to continued competition and product innovation. In the Transport
& Storage segment of the industry, support to the higher real value added was provided mainly
by increased activities at the island’s airports. There was a fall-off in activities at the sea ports
during the year.
Within the Telecommunications segment of the industry, there were respective increases of 4.1
per cent to 3.3 million and 22.7 per cent to 310,243 in mobile and fixed line customers. This
translated to the growth in the total number of telephone subscribers, up 5.5 per cent to 3.6
million, translating into a teledensity of 131.0/100 population relative to 124.3/100 population
recorded at end December.
Total passenger movements at the airports reached 5,548,364 and increase of 4.1 per cent. This
out-turn resulted from increases in both of the heavier weighted categories (arriving passengers
and departing passengers) nullifying the contraction in the number of Intransit passengers.
Several factors contributed to the overall increase in passenger traffic, including: the addition of
routes; increases in the number of flights by some airlines; improvement in passenger load
factor; and increased capacity through the utilization of larger aircraft by some carriers.
A total of 21,521 thousand tonnes of cargo were handled at the islands ports, a decrease of 4.9
per cent. Contributing to the decline in the volume of cargo handled were Outports, down 12.4
per cent to 8,872 thousand tonnes fueled by lower exports from the bauxite/alumina sector.
59
Cargo volume handled at the Port of Kingston increased by 1.2 per cent to 10,340 thousand
tonnes.
6.6.2.3 Wholesale & Retail Trade; Repair & Installation of Machinery
Real value added for the WRTRIM industry was projected to grow by 0.5 per cent for 2016
relative to 2015. This out-turn resulted primarily from increased retail sales and growth in the
related Construction, Manufacture and Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing industries for the review
period.
The industry also benefited from an increase of 9.4 per cent in the volume of ABM and POS
transactions and a 21.1 per cent increase, in real terms, in the value of these transactions. Also
contributing to the growth of the industry was a 6.6 per cent real increase in remittances for
January–July 2016 compared with the similar period of 2015, and an increase in the average
employment by 36,375 individuals for calendar year 2016 relative to calendar year 2015.
Review and analysis of preliminary General Consumption Tax (GCT) data showed that six of the
eight goods categories recorded improved sales for calendar year 2016. Of those categories
recording increased sales, the highest were recorded for: Motor Vehicles, Auto Repairs &
Accessories; Pharmaceuticals, Medical Goods & Cosmetics; Textiles, Clothing, Shoes &
Jewellery.
6.6.2.4 Finance & Insurance
Real value added for the Finance & Insurance Services Industry was estimated to have grown by
1.4 per cent compared with 2015. The expansion was attributed largely to a rise in net interest
income higher revenue generated from fees & commission income and an increase in foreign
assets. Also contributing to the growth performance were increases in funds managed, and net
income and net premium income at life and general insurance companies.
6.6.2.5 Hotels & Restaurants
In 2016, real value added for the Hotels & Restaurants industry was estimated to have grown by
2.1 per cent. This out-turn was attributed to growth in the Hotels and Restaurants sub-industries
which resulted from a 2.8 per cent increase in the number of stopover arrivals to 2,181,684
persons. Cruise passenger arrivals increased by 5.5 per cent to 1,655,565 persons. The
improvement in stopovers combined with a greater number of cruise passengers arriving at the
ports was reflected in the growth of total visitor arrivals, which increased by 3.9 per cent to
3,837,249 persons.
Provisional visitor expenditure for 2016 amounted to US$2,552.3 million, 6.2 per cent higher
than in 2015. This was due to increased expenditure from both stopover visitors and cruise
passengers. Stopover expenditure amounted to US$2,403.7 million relative to US$2,264.8
million in 2015. Average expenditure for stopover visitors per day was US$117.62 relative to
US$114.16 during 2015. Cruise passengers expended US$148.6 million during 2016 relative to
60
US$137.5 million for 2015. Average expenditure for cruise passengers per day was US$89.73
relative to US$87.64 for 2015.
6.7 Preliminary GDP Forecast For FY 2017/18 Prior To March To June Rains
Growth of 2.3 per cent is projected for FY2017/18, predicated primarily on improvements in all
industries with the exception of Producers of Government Services. It is anticipated that growth
will be supported by:
the expected reopening of the Alpart Alumina Refinery following its sale to a Chinese
producer (Jiquan Iron & Steel Company)
a strengthening of domestic confidence levels
as well as growth in the economies of Jamaica’s trading partners
Improved efforts at implementing GOJ supported growth inducing projects, ie. more
timely disbursements and implementation.
Growth projected for the Jamaican economy is against the background of benefits to be gained
from the implementation of the GOJ’s macroeconomic programme. This programme is
supported by a 3-year IMF approved SBA, which is focused on macroeconomic stability and job
creation.
6.8 Projected GDP Performance After The Disaster, FY 2017/18
Considering the costs of damage and losses associated with the disaster, GDP projections were
revised downwards. Real GDP is projected to grow by 2.1 per cent in FY2017/18 pushed largely
by the performances of both the Goods Producing and Services Industries. This represents a
downward revision from the previous projection of 2.3 per cent and is reflective of the adverse
impact on output levels as well as other developments in the domestic and international
environments. The industries for which projected out-turn was lowered included:
Agriculture, Forestry & Fishing – value added revised downward reflecting a
normalization of production levels relative to 2016; the impact of an expected decline in
April-June 2017 due to the April and May flood events; the impact of the Beet
armyworm outbreak on scallion; and leaf rust disease on coffee. The major risk identified
is the possibility of adverse weather conditions impacting performance later in the year,
given the forecast for an above average hurricane season.
The Mining & Quarrying Industry – value added revised downwards. The downward
revision reflects the impact of the lower than expected out-turn for the April – June,
reflecting in part heavy rainfall which halted the extraction of crude bauxite for alumina
production. The overall projection for the fiscal year is based on the expectation that the
Alpart Alumina plant will reopen during the July-September quarter.
The Construction industry, however, is expected to benefit from the clean-up and repair activities
subsequent to the flood rains.
61
7 RECOMMENDATIONS TOWARDS RECOVERY AND
RESTORATION
The volume and intensity of the May rains highlighted both the impact of the gains made in
disaster planning and emergency management over the years as well as areas for continued
improvements. Of note was the low number of deaths and injuries associated with the event,
which in some places produced rainfall in excess of 200.0 per cent of the 30-year mean and with
return periods of over 50 years. This indicates a measure of success of the public education
programmes implemented over time as well as the positive impact of community-based disaster
management initiatives. The relatively quick return to normality as evidenced in the reactivation
of electricity and water supplies and the re-opening of roads (even single lane access) bear some
testimony to the resilience building efforts.
Notwithstanding the above, there are some areas highlighted for attention so as to further build
resilience, coping and response capabilities and minimize loss and damage. Some of the
recommendations could be incorporated into one disaster management project, while others may
be treated as stand-alone or incorporated into ongoing activities. Below are some areas for
attention:
1. Earlier start to the drain cleaning and maintenance programmes (disaster mitigation)
island-wide but particularly in the central parishes. Mitigation work usually starts in
May/June in anticipation of the hurricane season (June-November). It is to be noted
however, that historical data in the recent State of the Jamaican Climate 2015 (SOJC)
showed that May has been the wettest month based on average rainfall values over the
period 1981-2010. Climate change projections for the 2020s at RCP 4.526
, show that
rainfall is likely to increase during the months of May, June and July by between 4.7 per
cent and 45.3 per cent across all but one area which includes major towns and
municipalities27
and which are coastal areas.
2. Drainage network upgrade and maintenance: It is important to prioritize and
accelerate the implementation of the drainage master plan. To support this, a programme
addressing drain rehabilitation, especially in rural communities could be developed for
inclusion in climate change adaptation planning and be packaged for funding through an
agency like the Green Climate Fund. The project could include preparation of a
maintenance plan and schedule, and include some bio-engineering activities to reduce
debris flow and water run-off and serve as erosion control. This recommendation is made
as much of the flooding observed is reported to have been associated with blocked drains,
26
One of four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) used in modelling the concentration of GHGs (CO2
equivalent) and in which annual emissions are said to peak around 2040 and subsequently decline. The scenario
assumes mean global warming of 1.4°C between 2046 and 2065
27 Morant Bay, Kingston, Portmore, Negril and Montego Bay
62
and as one agency reported “the rainfall resulted in flooding which was confined to areas
that were relatively flat, had poor internal drainage and/or limited drainage
infrastructure”. An example of this was in the Rio Minho Watershed (Pennants,
Frankfield) which the SOJC indicate does not have “adequate drainage in place to allow
for discharge of flood waters, resulting in flooding of major roadways, bank slips and
erosion”.
The project should include a solid waste management component, a part of which would
deal with composting in rural communities and recycling in both urban and rural
communities.
3. Rehabilitation of infrastructure: An infrastructure rehabilitation project should be
developed to: repair four bridges and roadways damaged in the event; undertake
retrofitting of selected bridges and roadways to increase resilience (NWA and Ministry of
Local Government to choose from priority list of infrastructure in need of repairs); carry
out river training (St. Catherine; Clarendon, Portland, St. Andrew). The use of the climate
change projections in the design of the infrastructure is strongly recommended.
4. Community Flood Early Warning Systems: Information has emerged that there is an
inadequacy of flood early warning systems and that where these exist/existed, there is
need for rehabilitation and upgrade to include making them real time systems. It is
proposed that a project for the expansion and upgrade of EWS be undertaken and that at a
minimum all bridges being rehabilitated be fitted with river gauges water level sensors
and e-trackers to report into the EWS being installed under the Pilot Programme for
Climate Resilience or being contemplated under the Emergency Communication System
Project at the ODPEM.
5. Data: Jamaica’s proneness to natural hazards demands greater use of scientific data
including hazard mapping to inform land use policy and building practices. It is therefore
recommended that a concerted effort be made to expand the coverage of areas mapped
for floods risks taking into account the rate of physical development as well as climate
projections. This should also be addressed in the Local Sustainable Development Plans
being prepared as well as the National Spatial Plan. Associated with this should be a
strengthening of the enforcement capabilities of development agencies to enforce
guidelines or requirements for no-build zones and environmentally sensitive areas.
The availability of accurate data provided in a timely basis is critical to the conduct of the
assessment and is an area in which emphasis must be placed in order to minimise the
prospect of under-estimating the impact of an event. To address this more frequent
63
training and retraining of personnel in the use of the methodology will have to be
undertaken.
6. Specially Vulnerable Areas: Appropriate assessments should be undertaken towards the
identification and designation of specially vulnerable areas in accordance with the
provisions and requirements of The Disaster Risk Management Act, 2015. The output
would include a special area precautionary plan for the mitigation and prevention of
disasters in designated areas along with strategies, policies and standards for development
and for maintenance of structures in the designated specially vulnerable area.
Along with the above, the recovery process/activities should seek to build on local knowledge
and expertise as well as the value of ongoing public education.
64
APPENDIX IA
Hourly rainfall totals (mm) between
1:00 a.m. and 6:00 a.m. on May 16,
2017 Hours
Stations Parish
1:00
AM
2:00
AM
3:00
AM
4:00
AM
5:00
AM
6:00
AM
Total
(mm)
24-Hour
Rainfall
(mm) total
(7:00 a.m.
on May 15
to 6:59 a.m.
on May 16)
6-hour
percentage
of 24 hour
rainfall
total
Bamboo St Ann 17.6 12.6 11.6 10.6 8.8 8.4 69.6 174.8 40
Bengal St Ann 0.8 1.4 0.6 0.8 8.2 9.0 20.8 30.8 68
Bodles St Catherine 0.0 0.6 0.2 0.2 8.4 35.8 45.2 77.6 58
Pantrepant Farm Trelawny 0.4 1.6 1.0 4.2 13.4 4.6 25.2 32.2 78
Greater Portmore St Catherine 1.4 1.0 1.6 0.2 1.6 7.8 13.6 28.4 48
Grove Place Mandeville 8.6 1.0 1.2 13.2 14.8 8.2 47.0 108.4 43
Llandovery St Ann 8.4 5.0 12.2 12.0 14.8 18.2 70.6 133.8 53
Mason River Clarendon 37.6 19.4 36.0 23.8 9.4 6.8 133.0 241.4 55
Middlesex St Ann 14.6 55.6 37.4 42.4 28.0 19.8 197.8 217.0 91
Mitchell Town Clarendon 0.2 2.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 10.8 13.4 30.0 45
Walkerswood St Ann 29.4 19.8 18.4 11.0 13.6 8.8 101.0 140.6 72
SIRI Manchester 8.0 2.2 1.8 13.4 23.6 33.0 82.0 208.6 39
65
APPENDIX IB
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Beckford Kraal Clarendon 138.1 332.3 9.7 0 0 332.3 480.1 157.2 207.7 244.2 233 206
Caswell Hill (New Yarmouth) Clarendon 138 20 28 0 35 138 221 121.3 171.1 208.7 na
Crofts Hill Clarendon 54.8 207.9 21.8 0.8 5.2 207.9 290.5 137.6 181 217 206 141
Frankfield Clarendon 68.4 172.3 29.1 0 44.1 172.3 313.9 116.8 198.8 271.7 230 136
Mason River AWS Clarendon 41.8 241.4 20.2 12.4 9.6 241.4 325.4 172.1 231.4 275.9 na
May Pen AWS Clarendon 64.8 64.6 11 0.8 14.2 64.8 155.4 107.3 170.6 221 na
Mitchell Town AWS Clarendon 68.6 30 49.6 4.2 11.4 68.6 163.8 na na na na
Mocho Clarendon 182.8 210.4 54.4 0 41.4 210.4 489 131.2 179.5 216 na
Monymusk AWS Clarendon 60.6 12.6 37.2 7 16.6 60.6 134 205.2 255 289 124 108
New Yarmouth Clarendon 150 18 30 0 48 150 246 124.4 174.5 212.4 na
Old Yarmouth Fisher Clarendon 129 14 28 0 30 129 201 115.8 170.5 211.8 na
Old Yarmouth Quarry Clarendon 135 16 25 0 26 135 202 123.8 173.8 210.5 na
Osborne Store Clarendon 172.8 117.8 20.8 1.3 14.8 172.8 327.5 123.8 173.8 210.5 na
Constant Spring FP Kingston 0 90.9 57.1 0 0 90.9 148 130 168 230 157 94
Jacks Hill (Ivor) Kingston 14.7 99.5 28.3 1.2 3.9 99.5 147.6 na na na na
66
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Langley Kingston 0 0 0 166.7 0 166.7 166.7 200 291 359.9 259 64
Palisadoes (Manley Airport) Kingston 31.1 12.3 62.8 1.7 5.7 62.8 113.6 166 251.2 305.1 67 170
Seaview FP Kingston 24 149.6 4 0 0 149.6 177.6 181 270 354 189 94
Shortwood AWS Kingston 10.6 68.6 12.8 0.6 1.8 68.6 94.4 na na na na
Woodford AWS Kingston 14.8 75.6 20 0.8 1.6 75.6 112.8 na na na na
Craig Head Manchester 0 142 4 0 104 142 250 153.2 213.1 258.4 330 76
Devon Manchester 52.9 138.4 0 0 50.3 138.4 241.6 137.7 183.8 214.6 na
Evergreen Manchester 38.1 0 55.9 58.4 61.5 61.5 213.9 99.2 110.3 116.7 257 83
Grove Place Manchester 49.2 108.4 30.8 1 41 108.4 230.4 122.2 168 209 224 103
J.J. Gagnon Manchester 22.2 27.8 79.4 4.6 35.7 79.4 169.7 121.2 184.8 239.2 200 85
Knockpatrick Garth Manchester 80.9 80 50 40.8 80.4 80.9 332.1 167.5 203 254 219 152
Manchester Pastures Manchester 158.7 111.1 79.4 55.6 79.4 158.7 484.2 137.8 197.3 240.9 221 219
Mandeville (SIRI) AWS Manchester 95.4 208.6 58.4 1.8 87.4 208.6 451.6 170.6 206.6 228.3 na
Marshall's Pen Sutton Manchester 112.5 126.7 9 3.4 153.7 153.7 405.3 131.5 175 204.9 247 164
New Forrest AWS Manchester 56.4 84.4 11.4 0.6 67.2 84.4 220 na na na na
New Forrest (RADA Agromet) Manchester 52.4 24.2 42 0.2 60 60 178.8 na na na na
Old England Manchester 10 5.4 20 6 10.4 20 51.8 130 222 299 203 26
67
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Bybrook Portland 21.6 290.3 46 1 3.7 290.3 362.6 289 316.3 331.5 255 142
Comfort Castle Portland 44.6 229 188.5 24.8 93.9 229 580.8 355.7 367.8 373.6 na
Folly Pt AWS Portland 41 85.8 124.4 8.2 8 124.4 267.4 na na na na
Fair Prospect (RADA Agromet) Portland 32.8 196.4 129.6 9.6 6.2 196.4 374.6 165 294 368 351 107
Fruitful Vale Portland 27.1 259 76.2 0 0 259 362.3 303.9 342.9 365.8 284 128
Moore Town Portland 0 64.8 64.4 73 91.3 91.3 293.5 306.9 340 412 na
Passley Gardens AWS Portland 16.2 65.4 106.6 5 7.4 106.6 200.6 254.3 275.5 288.2 na
Providence Portland 20.1 261.5 158.1 20.7 21.9 261.5 482.3 na na na na
Sherwood Forest Portland 0 0 23.8 7.9 20.4 23.8 52.1 279.2 332.3 366.9 na
Shirley Castle Portland 30 120 60 1 18 120 229 312.2 381 455 308 74
Spring Gardens Portland 17.5 119.1 15.9 0 7.9 119.1 160.4 na na na 201 80
Bamboo (Chippenham Pk) AWS St. Ann 11 174.8 32.6 0.6 5 174.8 224 na na na na
Bengal Farm AWS St. Ann 10.8 30.8 19 10.4 2.6 30.8 73.6 na na na na
Browns Town St. Ann 20.3 101.6 38.1 7.6 5.1 101.6 172.7 143.8 176.6 213 na
Cave Valley St. Ann 84.5 331.5 12.7 37.6 0 331.5 466.3 112.4 147.3 170 192 243
Claremont (RADA) St. Ann 26 150 93 0 2.6 150 271.6 na na na na
Discovery Bay St. Ann 7 57 18.4 0 5.2 57 87.6 116 188 269.4 102 86
68
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Gibralter St. Ann 79.4 79.4 92.1 39.7 39.3 92.1 329.9 117.7 155.4 178.4 181 182
Llandovery AWS St. Ann 5.4 133.8 36.6 0 1 133.8 176.8 na na na na
Mamee Ridge St. Ann 28.9 195.4 108.7 0 0 195.4 333 161.7 210 246.5 na
Middlesex (RADA Agromet) St. Ann 23.4 217 34.6 2 0.2 217 277.2 193.6 229 250.1 na
Moneague(Unity Valley ) AWS St. Ann 44.8 9.6 8 1.8 0.4 44.8 64.6 186.1 243.5 284.3 na
Runaway Bay St. Ann 8.8 114.7 34.2 0.8 2 114.7 160.5 183 213.8 231.7 na
Tivey Penny St. Ann 32.1 324.3 10.1 27.1 8.6 324.3 402.2 129 183.4 224.6 na
Walkerswood (RADA Agromet) St. Ann 25.6 140.6 24.2 3 0.8 140.6 194.2 na na na na
Bodles AWS St. Catherine 75.2 77.6 27 1.8 9.4 77.6 191 177.2 228.6 265.3 na
Bois Content St. Catherine 103.7 82.2 75.2 0 28.3 103.7 289.4 164.5 217 256.2 165 175
Bybrook St. Catherine 58 150 27 46 1.5 150 282.5 130.5 167.6 193.2 190 149
Charm Hole St. Catherine 90.4 270 28.1 10 7.6 270 406.1 199 253.5 292.9 209 194
Corn Ground St. Catherine 93 140 23.4 19.5 10 140 285.9 178.4 253.8 310.9 186 154
Dam Head St. Catherine 46.9 156.6 21.1 2 1.5 156.6 228.1 165.6 201.2 228.1 154 148
Enfield St. Catherine 35 390 19.2 5.6 0 390 449.8 118.3 177 221 187 241
Greater Portmore Primary AWS St. Catherine 24.6 28.4 15 1 7.2 28.4 76.2 na na na na
New Development St. Catherine 90 230 30.9 9 7.6 230 367.5 163.5 233.7 288.3 na
69
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
New Hall St. Catherine 47 160 58 3 2 160 270 124.4 168.9 199.6 na
New Works Farm St. Catherine 50 170 70 8 2 170 300 123 185 234 171 175
Palmer's Hut St. Catherine 69.5 150 20 15 2 150 256.5 118.1 204.6 269 na
Swansea St. Catherine 97 220 35 18.8 8.8 220 379.6 170.7 206 229.8 na
Tulloch Estates St. Catherine 40.8 217 15.9 2.6 0.6 217 276.9 na na na 201 138
Wakefield St. Catherine 74 130 10 2 3 130 219 135 189 240 na
Accompong St. Elizabeth 16.7 40.9 1.6 5.4 28 40.9 92.6 153 207 251 na
Appleton AWS St. Elizabeth 14.6 52.4 17.4 0 32.4 52.4 116.8 115.8 170.4 206.1 307 38
Bartons Isles AWS St. Elizabeth 15.2 8.8 92.5 0.8 37.5 92.5 154.8 111.2 153.2 178.5 289 54
Bethlehem Teachers Coll. AWS St. Elizabeth 27.2 48.4 27.2 0 61.2 61.2 164 na na na na
Burnt Savannah St. Elizabeth 0 0 25.4 0 0 25.4 25.4 86 119 137 235 11
Casa Marantha St. Elizabeth 21.4 28.7 62.9 0 35.6 62.9 148.6 108.3 139.6 158.5 273 54
Crawford AWS St. Elizabeth 15.6 64 11.4 0.2 53.8 64 145 na na na 142 102
Holland St. Elizabeth 22.4 71.1 42.4 0 25.4 71.1 161.3 108.5 144.2 171.3 275 59
Mountainside St. Elizabeth 28 0 0 0 0 28 28 98 167 213 na
Potsdam St. Elizabeth 80 11.1 0 0 0 80 91.1 84.6 158.1 228.1 176 52
Raheen St. Elizabeth 31.8 87.6 17.8 0 63.3 87.6 200.5 112 171.7 241.8 288 70
70
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Y.S. Estates St. Elizabeth 23.1 122.7 2 3.1 33.5 122.7 184.4 105.1 150.5 184.6 328 56
Albany St. Mary 0 0 120.9 0 0 120.9 120.9 117.2 178 220.9 na
Brimmer Hall Estate St. Mary 0 1.4 75.6 10.1 2.3 75.6 89.4 169.2 215.3 250.3 na
Crescent AWS St. Mary 17.2 139 80.8 1.2 0 139 238.2 na na na na
Industry St. Mary 8.6 214 18 0 0 214 240.6 155.8 192.4 215.9 na
Orange River AWS St. Mary 11.6 139.4 27 0.6 0 139.4 178.6 166.8 215.9 257 118 151
Port Maria St. Mary 0 0 69.1 0 0 69.1 69.1 137.6 192.8 230.1 na
Richmond St. Mary 16.8 0 229.6 15.9 0.8 229.6 263.1 171.3 195.4 226 na
St. Mary Banana Estates AWS St. Mary 20.2 130.2 100.4 0.8 0 130.2 251.6 na na na na
Bachelor's Hall St. Thomas 35.7 176.6 32.3 3.4 6.3 176.6 254.3 141.4 194.1 228 na
Bowden Pen St. Thomas 25.4 0 39.7 0 79.4 79.4 144.5 271 367 431 na
Duckenfield St. Thomas 20.6 123 69 3.3 0 123 215.9 184.3 216.5 258 168 129
Duckenfield AWS St. Thomas 13.6 65.2 90 0 0 90 168.8 184.3 216.5 258 168 100
East Albion (RADA Agromet) St. Thomas 36.4 8.4 47 1 29.2 47 122 na na na na
Hordley Estate St. Thomas 21.4 181 79.4 29.8 0 181 311.6 na na na na
Morant Bay St. Thomas 0 51.7 0 129.5 0 129.5 181.2 188.8 225 270 145 125
Norris St. Thomas 49.4 30 72.9 0.9 35.9 72.9 189.1 211.3 254.8 283.5 na
71
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Plantain Garden AWS St. Thomas 12.2 52.2 39.4 3 3.8 52.2 110.6 na na na na
Ramble St. Thomas 34.8 33.3 53.1 0.7 36.2 53.1 158.1 174.9 249 317 126 125
Serge Island St. Thomas 0 180 120 42 0 180 342 162.7 214.2 248.4 226 151
Spanish Wood St. Thomas 23.4 123 43.7 2.5 0 123 192.6 173.1 241.8 298.4 na
Whitehorses St. Thomas 7.9 18.6 190.5 11.9 15.3 190.5 244.2 111.6 148.4 173.5 127 192
Yallahs AWS St. Thomas 35.4 7.4 56.4 0.8 35.4 56.4 135.4 na na na na
Georgia Trelawny 12 0 40 0 0 40 52 137.8 150.2 157.4 97 54
Hampden Trelawny 16 0 53 120 5 120 194 135.2 178 214 182 107
Hampshire Trelawny 0 0 65 20.5 0 65 85.5 119.8 162 192.8 136 63
Hyde Hall Trelawny 14 0 64 22 0 64 100 96.5 134.8 163.8 115 87
Long Pond Estate Trelawny 13.8 0 45 15 0 45 73.8 128.5 176.4 211.4 124 60
Lowe River (RADA Agromet) Trelawny 30.4 76.8 24.6 0.2 39.2 76.8 171.2 na na na na
Orange Valley AWS Trelawny 21.8 28.4 9 31.8 2 31.8 93 121 157 191 90 103
Pantrepant Farm AWS Trelawny 10.4 32.2 6.2 65 6.2 65 120 na na na na
Sawyers Trelawny 0 0 30.9 0 0 30.9 30.9 97.5 162.7 217 na
Swanswick Trelawny 0 0 55 16.5 0 55 71.5 112.7 135.6 151.5 132 54
Ulster Spring (The Alps) Trelawny 16.7 63.9 1.4 15.6 20.9 63.9 118.5 na na na 207 57
72
Weather Station PARISH May
14
May
15
May
16
May
17
May
18
Maximum
24-hr
Rainfall
(mm)
Total
Rainfall
over
the
period
T2
Return
Period
T5
Return
Period
T10
Return
Period
Station
Mean
Percentage of
Station Mean
Warsop Trelawny 29.4 0 93.7 6.2 77.8 93.7 207.1 139.6 202.2 249.4 315 66
73
APPENDIX I C
Station Name Parish Total
Rainfall
Return Period
Exceeded
Beckford Kraal Clarendon 480.1 T10
Caswell Hill (New Yarmouth) Clarendon 221 T2
Crofts Hill Clarendon 290.5 T5
Frankfield Clarendon 313.9 T2
Mason River AWS Clarendon 325.4 T5
May Pen AWS Clarendon 155.4 None
Mocho Clarendon 489 T5
Monymusk AWS Clarendon 134 None
New Yarmouth Clarendon 246 T2
Old Yarmouth Fisher Clarendon 201 T2
Old Yarmouth Quarry Clarendon 202 T2
Osborne Store Clarendon 327.5 T2
Constant Spring FP Kingston 148 None
Langley Kingston 166.7 None
Palisadoes (Manley Airport) Kingston 113.6 None
Seaview FP Kingston 177.6 None
Craig Head Manchester 250 None
Devon Manchester 241.6 T2
Evergreen Manchester 213.9 None
Grove Place Manchester 230.4 None
J.J. Gagnon Manchester 169.7 None
Knockpatrick Garth Manchester 332.1 None
Manchester Pastures Manchester 484.2 T2
Mandeville (SIRI) AWS Manchester 451.6 T5
Marshall's Pen Sutton Manchester 405.3 T2
Bybrook Portland 362.6 T2
Comfort Castle Portland 580.8 None
Fair Prospect (RADA
Agromet) Portland 374.6 T2
Fruitful Vale Portland 362.3 None
Moore Town Portland 293.5 None
Passley Gardens AWS Portland 200.6 None
Sherwood Forest Portland 52.1 None
74
Station Name Parish Total
Rainfall
Return Period
Exceeded
Shirley Castle Portland 229 None
Cave Valley St. Ann 466.3 T10
Discovery Bay St. Ann 87.6 None
Gibralter St. Ann 329.9 None
Llandovery AWS St. Ann 176.8 None
Mamee Ridge St. Ann 333 T2
Middlesex (RADA Agromet) St. Ann 277.2 T2
Moneague ( Unity Valley)
AWS St. Ann 64.6 None
Runaway Bay St. Ann 231.7 None
Tivey Penny St. Ann 404.2 T10
Bodles AWS St. Catherine 191 None
Bois Content St. Catherine 289.4 None
Bybrook St. Catherine 282.5 T2
Charm Hole St. Catherine 406.1 T5
Corn Ground St. Catherine 285.9 None
Dam Head St. Catherine 228.1 None
Enfield St. Catherine 449.8 T10
New Hall St. Catherine 270 T2
New Works Farm St. Catherine 300 T2
Palmer's Hut St. Catherine 256.5 T2
Swansea St. Catherine 379.6 T5
Wakefield St. Catherine 219 None
Accompong St. Elizabeth 92.6 None
Appleton AWS St. Elizabeth 116.8 None
Bartons Isles AWS St. Elizabeth 154.8 None
Burnt Savannah St. Elizabeth 25.4 None
Casa Marantha St. Elizabeth 148.6 None
Holland St. Elizabeth 161.3 None
Mountainside St. Elizabeth 28 None
Potsdam St. Elizabeth 91.1 None
Raheen St. Elizabeth 200.5 None
Y.S. Estates St. Elizabeth 184.4 T2
Albany St. Mary 120.9 T2
Brimmer Hall Estate St. Mary 89.4 None
Industry St. Mary 240.6 T5
75
Station Name Parish Total
Rainfall
Return Period
Exceeded
Orange River AWS St. Mary 178.6 None
Port Maria St. Mary 69.1 None
Richmond St. Mary 263.1 T10
Bachelor's Hall St. Thomas 254.3 T2
Bowden Pen St. Thomas 144.5 None
Duckenfield St. Thomas 215.9 None
Duckenfield AWS St. Thomas 168.8 None
Morant Bay St. Thomas 181.2 None
Ramble St. Thomas 158.1 None
Serge Island St. Thomas 342 T2
Spanish Wood St. Thomas 192.6 None
Whitehorses St. Thomas 244.2 T10
Georgia Trelawny 52 None
Hampshire Trelawny 85.5 None
Hyde Hall Trelawny 100 None
Long Pond Estate Trelawny 73.8 None
Orange Valley Estate Trelawny 93 None
Sawyers Trelawny 30.9 None
Swanswick Trelawny 71.5 None
Warsop Trelawny 207.1 None
76
APPENDIX 2
OBSERVATION (SNAP SHOT) OF EVENT OF MAY 14TH
-19TH
, 2017 FROM STEVENS
CONNECT
REGION 1 (Intensity Rain Gauges)
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Goshen rain gauge observed intense rain that peaked at
11.21 inches.
77
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Cottage (Mile Gully) rain gauge observed intense rain that
peaked at 9.4 inches.
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Ewarton rain gauge observed intense rain that peaked at
16.56 inches.
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Riversdale rain gauge observed intense rain that peaked at
10.94 inches.
78
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Glengoffe rain gauge observed intense rain that peaked at
7.24 inches.
REGION 2 (Intensity Rain gauge)
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Gurney Mount rain gauge observed intense rain that
peaked at 16.72 inches.
79
REGION 3 (Intensity Rain gauge)
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Cedar Valley rain gauge observed intense rain that peaked
at 19.16 inches.
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Hope River rain gauge observed intense rain that peaked
at 8.33 inches.
80
REGION 2 (Stream flow stations)
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Cabarita River at Grange saw peak stages observed at
11.51 feet on Tuesday may 16th.
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Cabarita River at Grange saw peak stages observed at
11.94 feet on Tuesday May 16th
81
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Martha Brae River at Friendship saw peak stages
observed at 7.76 feet on Thursday May 18th.
. It should be noted that there was a tape slip from
Wednesday 17th
to Thursday May 18th
.
REGION 3 (Stream flow stations)
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Rio Bueno River saw peak stages observed at 6.20 feet on
Thursday May 18th.
82
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Hope River saw peak stages observed at 5.83 feet on
Thursday May 18th.
Over the period of intense rainfall, the Plantain Garden River (PGR) saw peak stages observed at
13.81 feet on Thursday May 18th.
83
PARISH TOTAL ESTIMATE COST TO REOPENBALANCE TO
COMPLETE
MARCH 18 - 22 St. Mary 3,370,000.00 3,370,000.00 -
April 16-23Kingston 37,610,000.00 17,050,000.00 20,560,000.00
St. Andrew 1,550,000.00 1,200,000.00 350,000.00
St. Catherine 77,670,000.00 17,670,000.00 60,000,000.00
St. Thomas 192,450,000.00 127,250,000.00 65,200,000.00
St. Mary 26,125,000.00 12,260,000.00 13,865,000.00
Portland 30,650,000.00 28,150,000.00 2,500,000.00
Clarendon 131,500,000.00 103,000,000.00 28,500,000.00
Manchester 154,275,480.00 26,750,000.00 127,525,480.00
St. Elizabeth 15,300,000.00 15,300,000.00 -
St. James 2,695,000.00 2,695,000.00 -
Westmoreland 150,000.00 150,000.00 -
Trelawny 1,230,000.00 1,230,000.00 -
TOTAL 671,205,480.00$ 352,705,000.00$ 318,500,480.00$
May 1-10 St. Thomas 21,510,000.00 5,320,000.00 16,190,000.00
Manchester 900,000.00 900,000.00 -
St. Elizabeth 2,700,000.00 2,700,000.00 -
St. James 2,830,000.00 2,000,000.00 830,000.00
Westmoreland 1,300,000.00 1,300,000.00 -
Trelawny 675,000.00 675,000.00 -
Hanover 1,925,000.00 1,925,000.00 -
-
TOTAL 31,840,000.00$ $14,820,000.00 $17,020,000.00
May 13-17 Kingston 45,290,000.00 17,590,000.00 27,700,000.00
St. Andrew 43,430,000.00 11,430,000.00 32,000,000.00
St. Catherine 201,706,800.00 102,350,000.00 99,356,800.00
St. Thomas 505,530,000.00 341,730,000.00 163,800,000.00
Portland 26,250,000.00 24,150,000.00 2,100,000.00
St. Mary 149,685,000.00 64,705,000.00 84,980,000.00
St. Ann 56,306,830.00 10,333,260.00 45,973,570.00
Clarendon 410,690,000.00 261,190,000.00 149,500,000.00
Manchester 121,550,000.00 33,550,000.00 88,000,000.00
St. Elizabeth 13,480,000.00 13,480,000.00 -
St. James 11,500,000.00 6,050,000.00 5,450,000.00
Westmoreland 6,540,000.00 740,000.00 5,800,000.00
Hanover 17,352,460.00 1,662,000.00 15,690,460.00
Trelawny 148,190,000.00 55,940,000.00 92,250,000.00
TOTAL 1,757,501,090.00 944,900,260.00 812,600,830.00
June 16-18
St. Thomas 38,200,000.00 16,400,000.00 21,800,000.00
Portland 44,925,000.00 16,925,000.00 28,000,000.00
St. Catherine 9,050,000.00 9,050,000.00 -
Clarendon 84,300,000.00 58,450,000.00 25,850,000.00
Manchester 231,900,000.00 56,950,000.00 174,950,000.00
St. Elizabeth 3,316,000.00 3,316,000.00 -
St. James 117,000.00 117,000.00 -
Hanover 364,850.00 364,850.00 -
Trelawny 650,000.00 650,000.00 -
TOTAL 412,822,850.00$ 162,222,850.00$ 250,600,000.00$
AS AT JUNE 2017 GRAND TOTAL 2,876,739,420.00$ 1,478,018,110.00$ 1,398,721,310.00$
National Works Agency
Directorate of Regional Implementation and Special Projects
SUMMARY - FLOOD DAMAGE 2017
APPENDIX 3
84
APPENDIX 4: DAMAGE AND LOSS ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGY FOR
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF DISASTERS
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
DAMAGE QUALITY EXTENT OF DAMAGE
RECOVERY TERM RECOVERY COST
Zero Almost non-existent Very limited
range
Immediate Very
Short
None
Insignificant or
Minimal
Slight Local Short Low
Moderate Marked Local
Limited range
Short or Medium Medium to High
Severe Very Marked Local or
Extensive
Medium or Long High or Very
high
Very Severe Serious and
Destructive
Local or
Extensive
Medium or Long Very high
Total Total or almost total Local or
Extensive
Very long or
Irreversible
Incalculable
Source: DaLA Methodology
85
APPENDIX 5: IMAGES OF THE DISASTER
Flooding in Wakefield, Trelawny
Several structures undermined by a tributary of Rio
Minho in Pumpkin/Pennants, Clarendon
Section of roadway along Bath to Bath Fountain collapsed, St. Thomas
86
Landslide Broadgate along Junction Road in St. Mary
Aerial View of Flooding in Cave Valley, St. Ann
87
Landslide in Frankfield, Clarendon
Photo Credits: Initial Damage Assessment Team
House destroyed by flood rains, Redwood, St. Catherine
Landslide in Frankfield, Clarendon
88
ADDENDUM
Solid Waste Management28
Losses related to solid waste management amounted to approximately $15.2 million. This was
primarily due to cleanup activities carried out in six parishes across the island.
The parishes of Clarendon and Manchester were adversely affected by the May 2017 rains and
there was excess solid waste generated as a result of the flooding, damage to residences, the
agricultural sector and transportation infrastructure. Among the most affected communities were
Frankfield, Trout Hall, Victoria, Thompson Town, Race Course and Water Lane. To mitigate
the potential health risks and restore normality to the lives of the residents, urgent cleanup
operations were carried out in the affected communities by Southern Parks and Markets Waste
Management Limited. Cleanup activities amounting to approximately $7.5 million involved the
supply of transportation, labour, tools and machinery to collect debris from the affected
communities and transport them to the Martin’s Hill Disposal Site in Clarendon.
The parishes of St. Thomas, Kingston & St. Andrew, and St. Catherine were similarly impacted
by the rains and cleanup activities were carried out by Metropolitan Parks and Markets Waste
Management Limited at a cost of approximately $7.7 million.
The remaining parishes were not reported to be adversely impacted.
28
The information was received from the National Solid Waste Management Authority after the report was
finalised.