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MACRO2014 este unica conferință macroeconomică din Republica Moldova, care adună cei mai iluștri gânditori din regiune pentru a discuta despre principalele provocări și oportunități ale economiei țării

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: MACRO 2014
Page 2: MACRO 2014
Page 3: MACRO 2014

MACROannual discussmodern

The annattractithe coueconom

Each edcovered

In the cthe EU work foAgreemsociety

MA

O stands for “M event bringinsing and advanization.

nual Conferenveness as de

untry’s risks thmic developm

dition of MACd the topic: “M

context of advin July 2014,

or the people. ment with the

, the poor etc

ACRO: w

Moldova: Asseg together do

ancing innovat

nce offers a hstination for i

hat need to beent.

RO has a uniqMACRO 2013:

vancing on the the 2014 edit It will bring toEU on differen.

what is

essing Countromestic and intive ideas to s

igh-level intelnternational i

e alleviated to

quely tailored A Global look

e European intion of MACROo discussion tnt categories

it abou

ry Risks and Onternational psupport Moldo

lectual platfoinvestments,

o make Moldo

topic. The firk at Moldova’s

ntegration ageO is going to fthe key oppor of population

t?

Opportunitiespolicy expertsova along its

rm to dissect new ideas an

ova a better pl

rst edition of Ms economy”.

enda by signinfocus on waysrtunities and cn: employees,

”. MACRO has and thinkers way of econo

the factors ind advanced teace for huma

MACRO was h

ng the Associas to make thechallenges of employers, fa

s been concei with the key

omic developm

nfluencing Moechnologies,

an well-being a

hosted in 2013

ation Agreeme European int the Associatiarmers, youth

3

ved as an purpose of ment and

oldova’s to assess and

3, and it

ment with tegration on

h, civil

Page 4: MACRO 2014

4

The MAlogical wide placommufurther

The goasocial cThe “Mosupport

Confere

DiscussrelevanauthoritopportuConfere

Go

ACRO Annual component oatform for pu

unity in elabor development

al of the 2nd echallenges anoldova 2014 St for the discu

ence will focu

Discuss theand social successes aWhat are thas perceivedWhat couldassociationHow to ensaccountableWhat are ththe countryHow can thrising EU-scHow can thrisks of incrSpecial issushares of mrobustness

sions and pret policy authoties and otheunities. The Rence

oals of

International of the “Moldov

blic debates aration of polict.

dition of MACd opportunitieState of the Cussions.

s on the follo

e implementat cohesion, cand failures.

he key challend by the priva be the impa agenda with sure proper ie for their act

he causes of r’s strategic de

he implementcepticism? he implementreasing emigrue: how susta

migration and of the pensio

sentations wiorities. A Roadr stakeholdersoadmap impl

the Con

Conference wva 2014: Stateamong autho

cies and priori

CRO Annual Ines of the receountry Repor

wing issues:

tion progressoncluded at

ges related toate sector, cenct of trade lib the EU affectncentives forions? ising EU scepevelopment ptation of the

tation of the ation well-groainable is the informal econ

on system?

ll be includeddmap will be cs on how to aementation a

nferenc

will not be appe of the Countrities, local buitization of the

nternational Cently signed Art” findings wi

s of the Road the last yea

o the implementral and locaberalisation ot the poor? r politicians f

pticism in Molpath?

Association A

Association Aounded? e pension sysnomy? What

d in the Confecompiled in re

alleviate the keassessment w

ce

proached as atry Report” prousinesses, cive key public s

onference is tAssociation Ag

ll provide inte

map for strenar conferenc

entation of thl authorities a

on income dis

for promoting

ldova and how

Agreement le

Agreement ta

tem of Moldocould be the

rence proceedesult of the diey country ris

will serve as st

a stand-alone ocess. MACR

vil society andectors, which

to discuss thegreement withellectual stirrin

ngthening thee “MACRO 2

e Associationand the civil sstribution? Ho

g structural r

w to consolida

ead to strong

ackle the mig

ova amid popright policy o

dings and comscussions to ks and how to

tarting point f

event, but ratO will serve a

d internationah need assista

e key economh the Europeang and analyt

e economic d2013”: spottin

n Agreement wsociety? ow will advan

reforms and

ate the conse

er social coh

gration proble

pulation ageinoptions for inc

mmunicated t guide the nato harness thefor the next M

ther as a s a nation-l

ance for

mic and an Union. tical

evelopment ng the key

with the EU,

cing on the

make them

ensus about

hesion amid

em? Are the

ng and high creasing the

to the tional e ACRO 2015

Page 5: MACRO 2014

 

October

AG

08:30 09:00

09:10

09:40

11:00

r 21st 2014, Leog

ENDA

Registration

Opening. WeMatthias JO Key messagAdrian LUPU PANEL 1: K

Moderator: G Tatiana MOLEuropean InWhat are theCristian GHIExport of MoDona ȘCOLADCFTA oppoDavid DALTWhat can Mo Key q In what

Agreem How ca

compet What is Who ar

with EU Finding

could w

Coffee break

Eve

rand, Chișinău

n, welcome cof

elcome addresOBELIUS, Repre

ges of the StateUȘOR, Executiv

Key social and

George TEODO

LCEAN, Head ontegration, Minie real benefits oNEA, Director,

oldova’s agriculA, Executive Dirortunities: how cON, Macro-ecooldova learn fro

questions:

t key areas shoment with EU? an Moldova reatitiveness? s the estimatedre going to be tU? g the right placewin the internat

k

ent age

fee

s on behalf of tesentative, Fried

e of the Countryve Director, Inde

d economic im

RESCU, Manag

of Economic Costry of Foreign

of the Associati Romanian Cenltural products rector, Moldovacan we benefit?

onomist on Easom EU integratio

ould Republic o

ap the benefits

d economic andhe key winners

e in the regionational competit

enda

the organizers drich-Ebert-Stif

y Report 2014 ependent Think

mplications of

ging Attorney, V

ooperation andn Affairs and Euion Agreement ntre for Europe to the EU – thean Investment ? stern Europe, Thion so far?

of Moldova regi

of trade liberal

d social impacts and losers in

al context: whation?

ftung in Moldo

k-Tank EXPERT

f the Associat

Vernon and Dav

Sectoral Coorduropean Integra with EU? The rean Policies

e need for real p and Export Pro

he Economist I

ster progress f

lization with EU

t of the Associa the process of

at could be the

va and Roman

T-GRUP

tion Agreemen

vid

dination Unit, Gation of Moldoveality of the firs

policies for ruralomotion Organ

ntelligence Un

for the impleme

U, despite poor

ation Agreeme implementing

potential secto

ia

nt with the EU

General Directova

st days of imple

l development ization (MIEPO

it

entation of the

international

nt with EU? the Associatio

ors and niches

U

orate for

mentation

O)

Association

on Agreement

where Moldovva

Page 6: MACRO 2014

 

October

11:15

12:35

13:30

14:50

15:10

15:30

r 21st 2014, Leog

PANEL 2: P Moderator: N Constanța PReforms in eValeriu LAZĂMoldova in tMircea GEOAA 360° analyVictor LUTEThe largest u Key q How to What is How to How tra What is

Break for bu Panel 3: Th Moderator: V Adrian LUPUNew solutionLaura GRECProtection aSocial insuraOleg VEREJAThe future ofJörg RADEKProposal for Key q The pen

Moldov How to

and inf What a

experie What is

Roadmap foAdrian LUPU

Concluding Ana MIHAIL Reception

rand, Chișinău

Political econo

Natalia MORAR

POPESCU, Progelectoral cyclesĂR, President, Cthe new geo-ecoANĂ, President

ysis of MoldovaNCO, Director, unexplored dev

questions:

o move from pos the impact ofo achieve politicansparent are ts needed in ord

uffet lunch

he pension sys

Vasile BOTNAR

UȘOR, Executivns to an old proU, Head of Dep

and Family ance system in AN, President, Af pensions in M

KE, Consultant, Reforming the

questions:

nsion systems va? o consolidate thormal employmre the challeng

ence? s the cost of th

or next steps toUȘOR, Executiv

remarks

LOV, Programm

omy of reform

RI, Journalist, F

gram Director, I: moving beyonChamber of Coonomic reality. t, Aspen Institu’s economy Bureau for Dia

velopment oppo

olitical commitmf the electoral ccal accountabithe public insti

der to achieve p

stem of the R

RU, Director, Ra

ve Director, EXPblem: how can

partment, Polic

the Republic ofAssociation of

Moldova: realitiesGerman Econo Pension System

are under pres

he sustainabilitment? ges for impleme

e pension syst

o be taken ve Director, Inde

me Coordinator,

ms: how to ma

Founder, Media

ndependent Thnd the Associatiommerce and In Perspectives oute Romania

aspora Relationortunity for Mold

ment to action cycles on the ality for the politutions and wh

political comm

Republic of Mo

adio Free Europ

PERT-GRUP we reform Moldies and Social

f Moldova: chall Actuaries of Ms and perspectiomic Team Mom

ssure all over th

ty of the pensio

enting a functi

tem reform com

ependent Think

Friedrich-Eber

ake long-term

Sapens

hink-Tank EXPEion Agreement ndustry of Moldf DCFTA with th

ns dova

under the Assctivity of publiccy actions and

hat is the qualititment for a su

oldova: who w

pe

dova’s pension Insurance Dep

lenges and wayMoldova ives ldova

he world. Why

on system, give

onal multi-pilla

mpared to the c

k-Tank EXPERT

rt-Stiftung Mold

strategies wo

ERT-GRUP dova he EU and Turke

ociation Agreec institutions a reforms? ty of public debstainable deve

will pay the bil

system? artment, Minist

ys to overcome

is the situation

en the issues of

ar pension syste

cost for mainlin

T-GRUP

dova

ork?

key

ment with the nd the entire e

bates over the elopment agend

lls for the lack

try of Labour, S

them

n much more cr

f population ag

em, based on t

ning the curren

EU? conomy?

key reforms? da?

k of reforms?

Social

ritical in

geing, migratio

the internationa

nt system?

n

al

Page 7: MACRO 2014

Mode

In wAg

Hocom

Wh Wh

the Fin

cou

T

C

rator: Geor

P

what key areasreement with t

ow can Moldovampetitiveness?hat is the estimho are going to e EU? nding the right uld win the inte

Tatiana M

Cristian G

rge Teodor

Panel 1

s should Repubthe EU? a reap the bene?

mated economic be the key win

place in the regernational com

Molcean

Ghinea

rescu, Man

1

blic of Moldova

efits of trade lib

c and social imnners and loser

gional context: petition?

TiAgim

TaIntIntwitBuMo

Asneprefor

TiEU(R

AftabEcpreprochSuteawhintas

aging Atto

Kethe

register progre

beralization wit

mpact of the Asrs in the proces

what could be

itle: What argreement w

mplementati

atiana Molcean wtegration since 2tegration Departth EU and more

uilding. During 2oldova‘s Embass

s part of her workgotiations, particeparing the Natior 2014-2016.

itle: Export oU – the need

Romanian)

ter eight years obroad in 2007 – 2conomics. He is aesent in Romaniojects with the Rapters on Roma

ustainability Indeam of colleagueshich quickly becotegration from Ea a working point

orney, Vern

ey social ane Associat

ess for the imp

th the EU, desp

sociation Agress of implemen

e the potential s

re the real beith the EU? Ton (Romania

works with the M2004, holding varment, mainly dearecently with EU008-2011 she wa

sy in Sweden, als

k, Tatiana Molcecularly the DCFTonal Action Plan

of Moldova’sd for real po

f writing for the 2008 to study EUa columnist for “a’s press and TV

Romanian Acadenia in prestigiou

ex” and “Nations s and friends, theome one of the mastern Europe. C for Europeaniza

on David

nd economion Agreem

plementation of

pite poor interna

ement with thenting the Assoc

sectors and nic

enefits of thThe reality oan)

inistry of Foreignrious positions waling with trade a assistance progas Counselor and

so during the cou

an participated iTA part, as well a for the impleme

s agriculturalicies for rur

Romanian mediaU Governance at Dilema Veche” n

V. He was previoumic Society. Mr.s international rein Transit”. In 20e Romanian Centmost dynamic thCRPE recently opation projects wh

mic implicatment with t

f the Associatio

ational

e EU? ciation Agreem

ches where Mo

he Associatioof the first d

n Affairs and Eurwithin the Europeand sector coopgrammes for Capd then Charge d’

untry’s EU Presid

n Association Agas in the processentation of the A

al products tral developm

a, Cristian Ghine the London Sch

newspaper and isusly involved in c. Ghinea has writeports such as “

009 he founded, wter for Europeanink-tanks on Eur

pened an office inhich involve Mold

7

tions of the EU

on

ent with

ldova

on ays of

ropean ean eration pacity ’Affaires in

dency.

greement s of greement

to the ment

a went ool of s actively civic tten Media with a

n Policies, ropean n Chisinau, dova.

Page 8: MACRO 2014

8

Dona Ș

David D

Școla

Dalton

Ti(R

Docococodeoth

ShbuScTeMi

Tifa

DaUneco(mforMaLo

itle: DCFTA oRomanian)

ona Scola holds ammunications antributing to Inteuntry. Dona Scovelopment projeher partners.

he has extensive usiness developmchool of Businessechnical Universinister of Informa

itle: What caar? (English)

avid Dalton is a mnit, where he is reonomic forecast

mostly the Europer about four yearanchester Univerndon's School o

opportunitie

about twenty yeaand IT. She has lernet developmeola worked as a cects financed by

experience in fament and holds Ms and Bachelor’sty of Moldova. Dation Technolog

an Moldova

macro-economistesponsible for prts, for a number ean CIS and Centrs. His degrees arsity and Transitf Slavonic and E

es: how can

ars of manageriaead one of the p

ent and broadbanconsultant for se World Bank, USA

cilitative managMBA degree from degree in systemona Scola previoies and Commun

learn from E

t and editor at throducing news anof countries in thtral Asia). He hasre in Economic aion Economics fast European St

we benefit?

al experience in tpioneering ISPs ind deployment ineveral ICT sectorAID, Soros Found

ement, project am Grenoble Gradu

m engineering frously served as Vnications.

EU integratio

he Economist Intnalysis, and polithe former Soviets been covering and Social Studifrom the Universtudies (SSEES).

the field of n Moldova n the r dation and

and uate rom Vice

on so

telligence tical and t Union Moldova es from ity of

Page 9: MACRO 2014

Mode

Ho Wh Ho Ho Wh

Co

rator: Nata

P

ow to move fromhat is the impacow to achieve pow transparent hat is needed in

onstanța

Valeriu

alia Morari,

Panel 2

m political comct of the electo

political accoun are the public n order to achie

Popescu

Lazăr

journalist,

2

mmitment to acoral cycles on tntability for the institutions aneve political co

TiAs

CoAdanrecMipreIntincfur

u

TP(

VwnAA

HMPMt

Media Sap

Polon

ction under the he activity of p policy actionsd what is the qmmitment for

itle: Reformsssociation A

onstanta Popescdvocacy” at the Ind academic baccent role in Govenister in 2011-20eparing for the Dtegration programcludes an MA in rther post-gradu

Title: MoldovPerspectives(Romanian)

Valeriu Lazar attewith diploma of mnumber of internAdministration (PAdministration (B

He worked in theMoldova since 19Promotion, advanMinister, Deputy o 2014.

piens foun

olitical econng-term str

Association Agpublic institutio and reforms?

quality of public a sustainable d

s in electoraAgreement (R

u is Program Dirndependent Thinkground in refor

ernment included012, as well as w

DCFTA negotiatioms at the BritishPolitical Economate studies in De

va in the news of DCFTA w

ended the State mechanical enginships abroad, inc

Paris, France) anBruges, Belgium)

Ministry of Fore994, in the Nationcing from coord Minister and Min

der

nomy of rerategies wo

greement with ns and the ent

c debates over development a

al cycles: moRomanian)

ector for “Politicnk Tank “Expert-Gms and economd work as Econom

work with the Minons, and earlier a Embassy in Chi

my gained in 2003emocracy and Pu

w geo-econowith the EU

Agrarian Universneer. Between 19cluding the Interd European Inst

).

eign Economic Rnal Agency for Fdinator specialisnister in 2005-20

eforms: howork?

the EU? ire economy?

the key reformgenda??

oving beyon

cal Economy andGrup” and has pr

mics of transition.mic Adviser to th

nistry of Economactivity on Europisinau. Her educa3 in UK (UCL / Sublic Policy (LSE

omic reality and Turkey

sity of Moldova, 995-1997 he pur

rnational Institutitute of Public

Relations of the RForeign Investmest, to the counsel006, 2009-2010 a

9

w to make

ms?

d the

d ractical . Her he Prime-

my on ean ation SEES) and

E).

.

graduating rsued a e of Public

Republic of ents or of the

and 2010

Page 10: MACRO 2014

10

Mircea G

Victor Lu

Geoană

utenco

Ti(R

MiCoSc20forPreactPleFroRoMi19In

TifoVicStareg Thde VicanUnso

itle: A 360° aRomanian)

rcea Geoana is sommission of Dechengen space a014, Mircea Geoar Strategic Econoevious to his poltivity. Ha was apenipotentiary of om 2000 to 2004

omania. rcea Geoana is a

992 he graduated 1994 he was a N

itle: The largor Moldova (ctor Lutenco is tate Chancellery, garding the diasp

he BRD team is wvelopment and o

ctor Lutenco gaid migration wor

nited Nations Popcial policy and d

analysis of M

senator for Dolj, puties Chamber nd a prominent p

ana is the High Romic Projects anitical career, Mir

ppointed as the ARomania to the 4, Mircea Geoana

an expert on Eurd from “Ecole NaNATO fellow on d

gest unexploRomanian) he Head of the D which aims at cpora.

working on changof the collaborat

ned a solid expeking for the Interpulation Fund anevelopment.

Moldova’s ec

the President of and Senate for Rpolitical figure inepresentative of

nd Public Diplomcea Geoana had

Ambassador ExtrUnited States of a served as Minis

opean and Transtionale d’Admini

democratic instit

ored develop

Diaspora Relationoordinating the G

ging the paradigmion with its citize

rience in the fieldrnational Organiznd as the advisor

conomy

the Joint SpeciaRomania's joininn Romania. Sincef Romanian Gove

macy. d a successful diraordinary and

f America at age ster of Foreign A

s-atlantic integraistration” in Paristutions.

pment oppor

ns Bureau (BRD)Government’s po

ms of the countrens abroad.

d of social develzation for Migratr to the Prime M

al ng of e February ernment

plomatic

of 37. Affairs of

ation. In s, France.

rtunity

of the olicies

ry's

opment tion, the inister on

Page 11: MACRO 2014

Mode

The Ho

info Wh

exp Wh

rator: Vasi

P

e pension systeow to consolidaormal employm

hat are the chaperience? hat is the cost o

Adrian L

Laura G

le Botnaru

Panel 3

ems are under ate the sustainament? llenges for imp

of the pension

upușor

Grecu

, journalist

3

pressure all ovability of the pe

plementing a fu

system reform

Tire

AdorgmomaPraalsAc

TitMo

LauDep

Shesochasexpfamstrathe

t, Radio Fre

ThMoof

ver the world. Wension system,

unctional multi-

m compared to t

itle: New soleform Moldo

drian Lupusor, Exganization sinceonetary policy, inaster degree in eague and is currso a master degrcademy of Econo

tle: Social inoldova: chal

ura Grecu is thpartment, Minist

e participated incial insurance ws been with the perience in policmily policies. Bategies and legis

e 7th chapter fro

ee Europe

he pension oldova: wh reforms?

Why is the situa given the issu

-pillar pension

the cost for ma

lutions to anova’s pension

xecutive Director 2009. His areas

nflation, banking economics and fiently a PhD studree in financial aomic Studies of M

nsurance sysllenges and

he Head of Detry of Labor, Soc

negotiating bilaith 13 member s Ministry of Labcies of ensuringeing responsiblslation in social m the 2012-2020

system of o will pay t

ation much moes of populatio

system, based

ainlining the cu

n old problemn system? (R

of the EXPERT- of research are: sector and the pnance from the

dent at the same nd banking admMoldova.

stem in the ways to ove

partment, Policial Protection an

ateral agreementstates of the Eurbor since 1999 a gender equalitye for coordinainsurance area, L0 National Devel

the Repubthe bills fo

ore critical in Mon ageing, migr

on the interna

urrent system?

m: how can Romanian)

GRUP has been : economic policpensions system Charles Universi institution. Adriinistration from

Republic of ercome them

cies and Social nd Family (since

t for projects in ropean Union. Land has obtainey, violence prev

ating the develoLaura Grecu conopment Strategy

11

blic of r the lack

oldova? ration and

tional

we

with the cies,

m. He has a ity in an has the

m

Insurance 2008).

the area of aura Grecu

ed an large ention and opment of ntributed to y.

Page 12: MACRO 2014

12

Oleg Ve

Jörg Ra

erejan

adeke

Tipe

Oleof ma

Hecotheanco

SinInvpeproactspinv

Ti(E JöMogo

Mrpoausys

He

.

itle: The futuerspectives

eg Verejan holds Moldova since 2aster degree in A

e is member of thmmission of aude Financial Mark actuary and ecompany.

nce 2008 up to Svestment Departnsion) of Moldovojects of the finatuary and speciaecialization and

vestment, private

itle: ProposaEnglish)

örg Radeke is theoldova. GET Mold

overnment on be

r. Radeke’s areasolicy and social s

thored a study ostem.

e is also a memb

ure of pensio(Romanian)

s the position of t2006. He is PhD iActuarial and risk

he council of expditors and actua

ket of Republic ofonomic and finan

September 2014 tment and Manava-Agroindbank. ancial sector refoalist in securities research are: ace pensions, statis

al for Reform

e Coordinator of tdova provides echalf of the Germ

s of expertise lie ecurity system r

outlining proposa

er of the German

ons in Moldo

the President of n the economic

k in business.

perts and memberies, both at the f Moldova. More ncial analyst at t

he held the posiger of investmen In the same timorm at World Bans in the capital mctuarial, risk manstics, financial fo

ming the Pen

the German Econconomic policy aan Ministry for th

in economic impeform. At the be

als for the reform

n Advisory Group

ova: realities

the Actuarial As statistics field a

er of the certifica National Commi than 10 years hthe international

tion of Head of Cnt projects (priva

me, he was expertnk. He hold certi

market. Areas of nagement, insuraorecasting.

nsion System

nomic Team (GEadvice to the Mohe Economy.

pact assessmeneginning of this ym of Moldova’s p

p in Ukraine.

s and

ssociation and has a

ation ission of e works as insurance

Corporate ate ts in ficates as

ance,

m

ET) in ldovan

ts, trade year co-ension

Page 13: MACRO 2014

WHO WE

Expert-Gand poliwho havAmong oideologi

OUR ACT

Our coreproductscompete

PARTNE

In the laand poliinvolvedEastern StiftungInternatwas elecPolicy A

E ARE

Grup is a leadincy research. As

ve created the other types of cally neutral th

TIVITIES

e activity is ecs and servicesence lies in the

MacroeconoPolitical econPublic financHuman deveLabour markForeign tradeFinancial maEconomics oSector-level eRegional andEnergy and e

ERS AND DONO

st 8 years has cy research. M

d in these proje European Fou, UNDP Moldovional Cooperatcted member o

Association for

Or

ng think tank fros independent institution with organizations hink-tank and it

conomic analy helping our be

e ability to prov

mic analysis annomy; ce; lopment and p

ket and consume; arkets; of European inteconomic anald local economenvironmental e

ORS

implemented mMore than 100 aects. We have wndation, Konrava, UNICEF, Eurtion, United Kinof the National an Open Socie

rganize

om the Republ organization, Eh the purpose oin the civil socit does not repre

sis, forecast aeneficiaries to ide professiona

nd forecast;

overty reductiomers’ behaviour

egration; ysis; ic developmeneconomics.

more than 50 rassociated and worked with sucd Adenauer Stropean Commigdom Departm

Participatory Cty – a network

ers

ic of Moldova. Expert-Grup refof contributing iety of Moldovaesent any econ

and policy rese take decisionsal, high-quality

on; r;

nt;

esearch and ad non-associatech donors as thiftung, Balkan Tssion, Council

ment for InternaCouncil of Moldk of policy cente

A not-for-profitflects the ideals with innovativea, Expert-Grup pnomic, corporat

earch. In this as supporting th and objective

dvocacy projeced experts fromhe World Bank Trust for Demo of Europe, Opeational Developdova. Since 200ers uniting 56 t

t organization ss of the young e solutions to tpositions itself te or political in

area, we offer he developmen research in suc

cts in different am Moldova and

Group, Moldovocracy, Black Sen Society Founpment. In 2010 08 the Expert-Gthink tanks from

specialized in e intellectuals frthe country's df as a politicallynterests.

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Page 15: MACRO 2014

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Page 16: MACRO 2014