mackay area transport modelling report july 2017

Mackay Regional Council

Mackay Area Transport

Modelling

Supporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan

v02

Final | 27 July 2017

v02 | Final | 27 July 2017| Arup

J:\251000\251706-00 MACKAY AREA TRANSPORT\WORK\INTERNAL\REPORTING\FINAL REPORTS\MACKAY LGIP SUPPORTING REPORT.DOCX

Document Verification

Job title Mackay Area Transport Modelling Job number

251709

Document title Supporting the proposed Local Government

Infrastructure Plan

File reference

Document ref v02

Revision Date Filename Mackay LGIP Report_v01.docx

Draft 1 19 May

2017

Description First draft

Prepared by Checked by Approved by

Name Wentworth Yao Roland Cathcart Roland Cathcart

Signature

Final 27 July

2017

Filename Mackay LGIP Supporting Report.docx Description Final report issue to MRC with addressed MRC comments

Prepared by Checked by Approved by

Name Wentworth Yao Roland Cathcart Roland Cathcart

Signature

Issue Document Verification with Document �

This report takes into account the particular

instructions and requirements of our client.

It is not intended for and should not be relied

upon by any third party and no responsibility

is undertaken to any third party.

Job number251709

Arup

Arup Pty Ltd ABN 18 000 966 165

Arup

Level 4, 108 Wickham Street

Fortitude Valley

QLD 4006

GPO Box 685 Brisbane QLD 4001

Australia

www.arup.com

Mackay Regional Council Mackay Area Transport ModellingSupporting the proposed Local Government Infrastructure Plan



Contents

GLOSSARY 2

1 Introduction 3

1.1 Background 3

1.2 Purpose of this document 3

2 MATM Overview 4

2.1 Model development background 4

2.2 Model scope and key features 4

2.3 Model structure 5

2.4 Inputs from MGAM to MATM 5

2.5 Demand estimation 6

2.6 Model network 7

2.7 Model outputs 7

3 MATM Application 8

3.1 Methodology 8

3.2 Scenario network development 9

4 Result Discussion 10

5 Conclusion 14

5.1 Summary 14

5.2 Limitations of the study 15




Page2

GLOSSARY

CUBE Strategic transport and travel demand modelling computer application

CV Commercial Vehicle

CWP Capital Works Program

HCV Heavy Commercial Vehicle

HTS Household Travel Survey

LGA Local Government Area

LGIP Local Government Infrastructure Plan

LOS Level of Service is a measure used to relate the quality of traffic service and is used in this

report to analyse the performance of roads based on traffic flow and available road capacity

MATM Mackay Area Transport Model

MGAM Mackay Growth Allocation Model

MRC Mackay Regional Council

MRR Mackay Ring Road project

OD Origin to Destination

PCU Passenger Car Unit is used in the MATM CUBE model to reflect the impact of different

vehicles on traffic operation:

• 1 car is represented by 1 PCU

• 1 commercial vehicle (medium or heavy) is represented by 2 PCUs

QTRIP Queensland Transport and Roads Investment Program

SA1 Statistical Area (the smallest for release and generally have a population of 200-800

persons and an average population of 400 persons) defined by the Australian Bureau of

Statistics

SA2 Statistical Area (general – purpose medium sized area built from whole SA1s and generally

have a population between 3,000-25,000 persons and an average population of 10,000

persons) defined by the Australian Bureau of Statistics

TAZ Traffic Analysis Zone

TMR Transport and Main Roads

VOC Volume over Capacity ratio in this study is a measure which compared traffic demand (in

PCUs) with available road capacity

VHT Vehicle Hours Travelled

VKT Vehicle Kilometres Travelled




Page3

1 Introduction

1.1 Background

Arup has been engaged by Mackay Regional Council (MRC) to undertake future year road

network scenario tests using the Mackay Area Transport Model (MATM). The MATM has

been developed jointly by Transport and Main Roads (TMR) and MRC and used for their

individual planning purposes and future road network scenario development.

To inform land use inputs in the MATM, Council utilised the Mackay Growth Allocation

Model (MGAM). The MGAM details Mackay demographic information at the lot level

and the latest version of MGAM is based on Queensland Government Statistician’s Office

(QGSO) 2015 edition population forecasts. Figure 1-1 shows the QGSO’s 2015 edition

population forecast of the 'Low', 'Medium', and 'High' growth series up to 2036.

Figure 1-1 – QGSO 2015 edition population forecast

The road network scenarios that were tested using MATM were generally developed based

on planned infrastructure projects from the State government’s Queensland Transport and

Roads Investment Program (QTRIP), MRC’s Capital Works Program (CWP) and a

preliminary project list for consideration for the Local Government Infrastructure Plan

(LGIP) with the addition of longer term planning projects as advised by TMR.

The transport modelling work has been carried out for 2021, 2026, 2031 and 2036 to assist

in understanding future year road network requirements.

1.2 Purpose of this document

The purpose of this project was to identify priority projects for each modelled future year

to support Council’s future year network planning and the development of the LGIP. This

report documents an overview of MATM, the methodology in MATM implementation,

and the findings and conclusions based on model results. This report is intended to be used

by Mackay Regional Council to inform future road network planning and investment

decisions.

115,960 155,467

171,313

187,783

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

At 30 June

Low Medium High

Mackay (R) is projected to have a population

between 155,467 and 187,783 by 2036




Page4

2 MATM Overview

2.1 Model development background

The MATM model is a strategic transport model developed using CUBE Voyager

software. It follows a typical four-step strategic transport modelling structure with fixed

mode choice assumptions. The four steps include Trip Generation, Trip Distribution, Mode

and Time Period Split and Traffic Assignment.

The model was originally developed in 2011 to support the development of the Mackay

Ring Road project (MRR) for TMR. Since then, it has been progressively updated

including the inclusion of junction delay modelling and recalibration to the 2011 census

population. TMR and MRC have continued to use the MATM for their individual planning

purposes with different model versions and scenarios developed.

2.2 Model scope and key features

The extent of MATM covers the Mackay urban area and its satellite towns including

Sarina, Marian and Mirani. The model does not cover the entire Local Government Area

(LGA) of MRC. However, external zone feeders were used to model traffic that go in and

out of the modelling area. Figure 2-1 shows the spatial extent of MATM (in light yellow

background) comparing to MRC LGA (in orange background).

Figure 2-1 – MATM spatial extent

The model network includes all roads identified as highway, arterial, distributor and

collector roads plus some important local roads or accesses.

MATM models four time periods including: AM (7am-9am), OP (9am-4pm), PM (4pm-

6pm), and RD (6pm-7am). It also aggregates traffic volumes of all time periods to daily

volumes. Two vehicle classes are modelled during traffic assignment which are light

vehicles (Austroads classification 1 and 2) and heavy vehicles (Austroads classification 3 -

13).




Page5

2.3 Model structure

The flowchart in Figure 2-2 summarises the modelling process in MATM. The

demographic and land use inputs are required for trip generation process, and the network

inputs with specifications of link attributes are required for the time period traffic

assignment process.

TMR undertook a Household Travel Survey (HTS) in 2010 and the survey data was used

to estimate demand relationships for MATM including trip generation, distribution, mode

shares, time period factors and vehicle occupancy for personal travel.

Figure 2-2 – MATM model convolution flowchart

2.4 Inputs from MGAM to MATM

The demographic and land use data from MGAM are one of the key inputs for MATM.

MGAM provides information at the lot level, so the data was firstly aggregated to the

traffic analysis zone (TAZ) according to the geographical boundaries in MTAM. The data

was then formatted to meet the MATM requirements with additional details in

demographic categorisation.

MATM requires more detail information than is available from MGAM, including

information about the population’s age profile and employment by job type. MGAM

population and jobs data are the used, augmented with additional detail using proportions

from the TMR MATM demography dataset (TMR MATM, 2012). As enrolment data and

visitor data is also not available from MGAM, TMR MATM input files are used, adjusted




Page6

in line with MGAM population. A number of schools were identified as not following a

normal growth pattern, as such the relevant zones were adjusted specifically with revised

target enrolment values for relevant years.

On the other hand, MGAM provides more detailed employment categorisation information

than the MATM’s requirement. A correlation defined by Council was used to cluster the

detailed MGAM employment types into five main categories used in MATM. In addition,

a 'mining' job type has been subtracted from the 'industry' job type based on the

proportions informed in TMR MATM dataset. MATM requires jobs in blue and white

collar split for each job type. In this case, the same split proportions of blue and white

collar jobs have been adopted from TMR MATM. MGAM population and employment

forecast have been summarised in tables in Appendix A.

2.5 Demand estimation

Trip generation

Demand for some travel purposes is better correlated to the characteristics of households

rather than population characteristics. The segmentation sub-model converts the forecast

planning data zonal estimates into households by type, where type refers to the number of

workers and the age of dependents in each household category. During the model

development, the household category relationships were not available for Mackay, so the

relationships used in other QLD models (i.e. Brisbane Strategic Transport Model - BSTM)

were adopt to estimate the number of households in each category. The resulting

proportions were compared with the proportions observed in the HTS which showed a

reasonable match.

Tip production coefficients were estimated separately for residents living in the urban areas

and residents living in the rural areas. Analysis of the HTS datasets showed that trip rates

from rural households were around 10% lower than household in urban area. Unlike trip

productions, coefficients for trip attractions were not separable by region, as statistically

sensible and robust relationships could not be estimated. The trip production and attraction

rates are presented in Appendix B.

The trip generation rates were calibrated using Mackay 2010 HTS and TMR 2011

demography datasets for the model base year 2011. Travel demand relationships for

private vehicle travel are developed from this data. Other sources of observed data used in

model development (calibration and validation) include:

- Special generator traffic count surveys – Port, Airport, Paget Industrial Area, major

shopping centres and hospital.

- Camera O-D survey in Mackay, providing direct observation of external to external

movements in MATM, as well as partial origin – destination data with MATM.

- Screenline link volumes and travel times.

Relationships for heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) were developed from local data

sources for the key heavy vehicle generators in Mackay (Port and Paget) and then

elsewhere in the model area, travel demand relationships were adapted from relationships

used in the BSTM. The relationships were then calibrated to match observed heavy vehicle

movements, including the camera origin-destination data.

Trip distribution

The trip distribution was calibrated to match the observed and modelled trip length

distribution curve as well as the average trip length by each travel purpose. Further




Page7

calibration check was undertaken to compare HTS observed movements and modelled

sector to sector movements to ensure movement pattern matching well.

Mode Share

MATM does not predict mode share; instead the person trips estimated from trip

generation step are firstly proportioned to motorised (car and bus) and non-motorised

(walk or cycle modes), using proportions input to the model by the model user. The base

year mode share inputs are based on the HTS 2011 survey proportions. These proportions

can be varied to test future alternative mode share scenarios, which affect the overall

proportion of trip by mode (motorised or non-motorised).

Time Period

Daily trip tables are proportioned to modelled time period using time period factors which

vary by trip purpose. Factors are based on observed proportions in the HTS 2011.

Vehicle Occupancy

Person trips made by light vehicles are converted to vehicle trips using vehicle occupancy

rates based on observed values in HTS 2011 for each trip purpose.

External Traffic

There are six external zones defined in MATM. Those include Bruce Highway north &

Bruce Highway south, Peak Downs Highway, Mackay-Eungella Road, West Plane Creek

Road and Sarina-Marlborough Road. Inputs to the model are the base year 2011 traffic

count at these external stations and then assumptions about future growth.

2.6 Model network

The road network, as the supply input to cater for the estimated demand, was implemented

at the last step / assignment step of the modelling process. The base year network was

established and calibrated to reflect the 2011 base year travel condition. Calibration checks

were undertaken to compare modelled traffic volumes to the counts along 10 screenlines

and modelled peak travel time to the observed for 9 travel routes in both directions.

MATM network includes all road links identified as highway, arterial, distributor and

collectors inside the model area, as well as some important local roads. MATM also takes

account of intersection delays within the urban area, at a strategic level, i.e. intersection

control type with simplified intersection layout and geometry.

As a part of this project, MATM was used to test the future year network scenarios. The

details of MATM implementation is discussed in Section 3 of this document.

2.7 Model outputs

The model contains a range of standardised report forms including maps, tables and charts.

Maps are produced in ArcGIS, using the model output data. Table and chart measures are

calculated and reported in an Excel workbook linked to the model output data.

The travel demand measures include modelled total demand, total number of trips by broad

geographic sectors, VKT VHT totals, average trip length by purpose, aggregated LOS

measures. The road network performance measures include screenline volume growth,

modelled AM, PM and daily link volumes, proportion of HV, modelled volume over

capacity ratios (VOC), average intersection delays, difference between modelled and

designate road hierarchy, travel time and travel speed.




Page8

3 MATM Application

During this project, MGAM demographic and land use data has been firstly reviewed to

ensure it was in line with QGSO’s latest projection, and the input format met with

MATM's requirements.

The other model input parameters and factors were maintained as the base year 2011

calibration, i.e. trip generation factors, and trip distribution parameters of the gravity

model. The mode choice and time period factors were assumed to remain the same as the

base year 2011 into the future years.

3.1 Methodology

The methodology for developing MATM future year option scenarios was developed as

illustrated in the flow chart in Figure 3-1.

Figure 3-1 – Network scenario development flowchart

The methodology is summarised as follows:

• The initial 2021 base case scenario was developed utilising the 2021 demographic

and land use inputs from MGAM, and with a ‘do minimum’ network comprising of

completed and committed projects based on QTRIP and CWP.

• The model run result for the 2021 base case was analysed to understand network

deficiencies that indicated the improvements required to resolve network level of

service (LOS) deficiencies for relevant links. The 2021 network with improvements

was then tested and a final set of improvements became the 2021 do something

scenario. This was then used as the base case network for 2026, 2031 and 2036

testing.

• The future year base case scenario model runs were undertaken with the MGAM

demographic and land use inputs of each relevant year. Model run results were

2021 base case

scenario MGAM land use

‘medium growth

QTRIP, CWP &

LGIP committed

projects by 2021

2021 do something

scenario Projects indicated by

LOS criteria

2026-2036 base case

scenario

2026-2036 do

something scenarios Projects indicated by

LOS criteria

Prioritised project list

2026-2036

2026-2036

land use

2021

land use Model runs

Model runs

Model runs




Page9

analysed to understand locations with LOS deficiencies to identify potential

upgrades and the likely timing of each.

• Key projects either from the identified project list or indicated by MRC / TMR as

additional strategic network improvements were tested individually under the 2036

base case model to understand the individual impact of each project.

• Scenario networks were with combinations of different individual projects. Model

runs results of each scenario were analysed to understand the network benefit and

comparisons were carried out to evaluate the scenarios.

Level of service (LOS) criteria based on volume over capacity ratio (VOC) is commonly

used to define link performance using assigned vehicle volumes. LOS of D and E were

applied during the study to indicate potential traffic congestion issues in the Mackay future

year network, and hence to inform locations which would require network or intersection

upgrades. The VOC criteria and its relationship to LOS is presented in Appendix C.

3.2 Scenario network development

The 2021 Base Case network was developed from 2011 base year calibrated network with

inclusion of committed projects by 2021, as well as those projects already been constructed

to date. The project list for the 2021 Base Case network upgrades is presented in

Appendix D.

The 2021 Base Case scenario was tested to understand how the Mackay Road network

would perform in the short term future under the currently planned network schemes

(projects with committed funding), and further to identify any residual deficiency in the

network requiring additional upgrades. The additional network upgrades were then added

to the 2021 Base Case network to develop the 2021 Do Something network.

The final 2021 DS network was then used as the base case network for 2026, 2031 and

2036. This provided an understanding of network deficiency ultimately in 2036 and when

and where the network would start underperforming in earlier years. The approach also

provided an indicative timing understanding for the network upgrade requirements.

Different combinations of alternative improvements were tested respectively in order to

achieve more desirable network outcomes. This process resulted in a preferred project list

that would be further analysed to understand implementation timing. The project list is

discussed in Section 4 of this document.

These findings were used to support the development of Local Government Infrastructure

Plan. For the purpose of this project, the QTRIP, CWP and the preliminary project list

were used as the basis to develop the future year network options in Mackay.




Page10

4 Result Discussion

4.1.1 Traffic demand

Based on the methodology described in Section 3, scenario model runs were carried out for

2021 first to understand the network performance in the base case and where additional

network upgrades are required.

The model results indicate the 2021 Base Case network will generally perform

satisfactorily with LOS A to D. The only location with LOS issue in the 2021 BC is Bruce

Highway South section between Homebush Road and Temples Lane with VOC ratio

between 0.82 – 0.91 and LOS E. An upgrade of this Bruce Highway section was tested in

the 2021 Do Something scenario showed that the network would perform with all roads

operating below or at LOS D in 2021.

Since the networks are the same in the future year base case scenarios, the demand will

drive the model outcomes in determining the deficiencies in the network and locations

where require improvements to accommodate the demand growth.

Table 4-1 shows the 2021 to 2036 estimated daily total vehicle demand (lights and heavies)

by report sectors as trip origins. The overall modelled vehicle demand has a compounding

growth of 0.4% per annum from 2011 to 2021. This is in line with the combined effect of

0.9% annum population growth with -0.5% annum job growth between 2011 and 2021

(refer to Appendix A). The demand growth will increase in later years with 1.0% per

annum growth from 2026 to 2031, and then 1.1% per annum onwards to 2036. This is due

to the both population and jobs growth that are forecast to have higher growth from 2026

onwards.

Table 4-1 – 2011 – 2036 daily total vehicle demand by report sector

Sector

ID

Report Sector 2011 2021 2026 2031 2036

Origins Origins Origins Origins Origins

2 Regional – North West 12,943 12,594 12,926 13,335 13,661

1 Rural View (include Shoal Point Bucasia) 20,463 32,639 38,710 44,650 51,702

3 North Mackay 91,821 93,571 99,424 105,348 110,010

5 Port 7,077 7,169 7,319 7,803 8,635

10 Mackay CBD 101,955 89,298 94,153 101,023 109,515

9 Ooralea 5,297 9,658 13,168 18,564 21,160

6 Paget 24,424 26,181 26,678 28,244 32,604

4 Rosella 3,469 2,794 3,117 3,245 3,379

7 Regional – South West 18,253 22,464 23,661 25,126 26,511

8 Regional – South Mackay 23,614 24,951 26,111 28,817 31,069

11-16 Externals 8,948 9,881 10,667 11,709 12,759

Total 318,265 331,200 335,936 387,862 421,006

Growth (from 2011 per annum) 0.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%

At the detailed sector level, from 2011 to 2021, the model indicates a reduction of traffic in

the Mackay CBD as a result of jobs reduction in this area. On the other hand, the increase

of traffic in Rural View and Ooralea is because of the increase of population or jobs or

both in these areas. Between 2011 and 2036, the model indicates significant traffic growth

will take place in Rural View and Ooralea sectors which results in an overall 150% daily

traffic increase in Rural View, and 300% increase in Ooralea. The majority of the growth

in Ooralea will take place between 2021 and 2031 with ~9,000 daily vehicle increase. The




Page11

growth in Rural View will be more evenly distributed across the years with a total of

~19,000 daily vehicle increase from 2021 to 2036.

North Mackay will also have significant growth in absolute numbers with a total increase

of ~18,000 daily vehicle demand. However, given it has a large demand to begin with in

base year 2011, the growth is relatively small percentage wise with 20% from 2011 to

2036.

Figure 4-1 shows the geographical boundaries of the above report sectors.

Figure 4-1 – Report sector boundary

4.1.2 Network results

The model network results for the 2021 to 2036 Base Case scenarios are presented in

Appendix E. It reports the daily link volumes, PM peak VOC and average intersection

delays with focus in the Mackay urban area. By comparing the daily volume plots, it shows

a strong and steady growth in traffic originated from the Rural View and Ooralea areas.

The traffic growth from Rural View area will be loaded onto Mackay-Bucasia Road, with

an overall increase of 23,500 daily vehicle trips (in both directions) from 2011 to 2036.

The increased traffic will also distribute to the other parallel routes to access Mackay CBD

and other destinations.

In terms of the PM peak VOC ratios of each modelled future years, it shows the links in

Mackay north area will progressively have congestion issues with traffic growth, especially

on those links carrying traffic from Rural View such as Mackay Bucasia Road, Glenpark

Street, Norris Road and Beaconsfield Road. In the 2031 Base Case, certain sections on

these links are highlighted with LOS E/F. Short sections of Paradise St north of Archibald

and Milton St south of Bridge Road are also highlighted with LOS E/F in the 2036 Base

Case.

The PM peak average intersection delay plots indicate major average intersection delays

will occur in 2031 and 2036 Base Case at Mackay Bucasia Road intersections. The delays

will become excessive at Mackay Bucasia / Mackay Habana Road intersection indicating

upgrade work will be required.

Based on the above findings, a list of projects has been considered and tested in the future

year do something scenarios to resolve the traffic growth related issues. Table 4-1

summaries the model result findings at the problematic locations by comparing the PM

VOC ratios between Base Case and Do Something scenarios.


v02 | Final | 27 July 2017 | Arup


Page 12

Table 4-1 – Links and intersections performance before and after project schemes (2026 – 2036 Base Case vs Do Something)

Congested Road

Name

Congested Road

Section

Base Case without projects Indicative

Timing

Improvement Projects

(ID reference to project list)

Do Something with projects

2026 BC

PM VOC

2031 BC

PM VOC

2036 BC

PM VOC

2026 DS

PM VOC

2031 DS

PM VOC

2036 DS

PM VOC

Shoal Point Road Kemp St north to Royal

Sands Blvd 0.55 0.78 0.96

2036 Kemp St north to Royal Sands Blvd 2 lane duplication to 4

(2012) 0.55 0.73 0.41

Mackay-Bucasia Rd Old Eimeo Rd to James

Cook Drive 0.77 0.98 1.13

2031 Additional lanes from old Eimeo Rd to north of James Cook

Drive (1012) 0.77 0.42 0.49

Mackay-Bucasia Rd James Cook Drive to

Downie Avenue 0.75 0.95 1.11

2031 Additional lanes from James Cook Drive to north of Downie

Avenue (1014) 0.75 0.41 0.48

Mackay-Bucasia Rd Habana Rd/Golflinks

Rd intersection

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay > 2

mins

Avg INT

delay > 10

mins

2031 Intersection upgrade at Habana Rd/Golflinks Rd – increase

roundabout capacity (1009)

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay <1

mins

Avg INT

delay <1

mins

Mackay-Bucasia Rd Golflinks Rd to George

Fordyce Dr

0.74 0.86 0.98

2036 Reed Street extension and upgrade minor collector to sub-

arterial (71, 83)

Dawson Blvd N bdry Richmond Hills Stg 1 + S bdry

Premier Vista Stg 1 – upgrade minor collector to subarterial

(72, 73, 97) 0.74 0.86 0.77

Mackay-Bucasia Rd Intersections at George

Fordyce Dr, Rosewood

Dr, Eimeo Rd

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay 1-2

mins

Avg INT

delay > 2

mins

2036 Above +

Eimeo Rd to E bdry Plantation Palms – upgrade minor

collector to subarterial (67)

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay 1-2

mins

Avg INT

delay <1

mins

Mackay-Habana Rd Mackay-Habana Rd /

Glenella-Richmond Rd

intersection

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

2036 Roundabout upgrade at Mackay-Habana Road – Richmond

Rd intersection (76)

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Avg INT

delay < 1

mins

Holts Rd Mackay-Bucasia to

Beaconsfield Rd

0.59 0.85 0.92

2036 Dawson Blvd N bdry Richmond Hills Stg 1 + S bdry

Premier Vista Stg 1 – upgrade minor collector to subarterial

(72,73, 97) 0.65 0.78 0.82

Glenpark Street At Railway Overpass 0.87 0.96 0.97

2031 Duplication of railway overpass and lane extensions (29) 0.9 0.47 0.51

Glenpark Street Maplethorpe Bridge 0.83 0.94 0.91

2031 Duplication of Bridge lanes and lane extensions (30) 0.87 0.46 0.5

Glenpark Street Beaconsfield Rd to

Bedford Rd 0.68 0.74 0.75

2031 Beaconsfield Rd to Bedford Rd2 lane duplication to 4

(2024) 0.7 0.72 0.34

Beaconsfield Rd Norris Rd to Holts Rd 0.85 0.91 0.95

2031 Norris Rd to Holts Rd assumed 2 lane duplication to 4

(4013) 0.79 0.38 0.46

Milton Street Bridge Rd to

Graffunder St 0.76 0.83 0.9

2036 4 lane divided signalised intersection (20)

0.8 0.85 0.33

Paradise Road Archibald St to

Webberley St 0.91 0.87 0.95

2026 Signalised intersection upgrade at Webberley St – 2 through

lanes on Paradise Rd approaches (14) 0.3 0.31 0.37




Page 13

In the 2026:

• The section of Paradise Road between Archibald Street and Webberley Street was

predicted to exceed the desired LOS. With an upgrade of 2 through lanes on Paradise

Road approach at the Paradise Road / Webberley Street intersection, the PM VOC ratio

will be improved from 0.91 in the base case to 0.3 in the do something scenario. The

same upgraded section will continue to operate under LOS B in the following modelled

years of 2031 and 2036.

In 2031:

• Mackay-Bucasia Road between Old Eimeo Road and Downie Avenue was predicted to

have a capacity issue with the PM VOC above 0.95 in the base case. This was due to

the increase of development traffic in Shoal Point and Bucasia. The duplication of the

road sections were predicted to improve the traffic condition with the PM VOC under

0.5.

• Similarly, sections of Glenpark Street at the existing 2 lane bridges will operate close

to capacity with VOC around 0.95 in the base case. With duplication, both sections

were found to operate satisfactorily with VOC around 0.5.

• A short section of Beaconsfield Road between Norris Road and Holts Road was

predicted to operate with LOS just above E due to the combination of through traffic

from Norris Road and Beaconsfield Road East that will merge at this point before the

next diverge point. With duplication, this road section was found to operate under LOS

B.

In 2036:

• Mackay-Bucasia Road between Golflinks Road and George Fordyce Drive was

predicted to operate with PM VOC at 0.98 due to the continuous traffic growth in the

Rural View and Northern Beaches area, indicating a network upgrade would be

required. An upgrade of this road section would improve the traffic condition, but such

an upgrade was not proposed in the updated project scheme list. As an alternative the

Dawson Boulevard and Reed Street Extension project were selected for scenario

testing purposes, as both projects were considered to support the local developments in

Rural View by providing better accessibility to the local area. It was found both

projects would also help to mitigate the capacity issue on Mackay-Bucasia Road as a

result of traffic diversion. In the 2036 DS scenario, the problematic road section will

have improved PM VOC from 0.98 to 0.77 with both projects included. It should be

noted the driver of both projects is not directly related to Mackay-Bucasia Road but to

cater for local developments.

• Short sections of Glenpark Street between Beaconsfield Road and Bedford Road and

Milton Street between Bridge Road and Graffunder Street were predicted to have PM

VOC at 0.95 in the 2036 BC. With duplications tested, both links were found to operate

satisfactorily with PM VOC below 0.35.

With network improvement schemes in the Do Something scenarios of each year, the

relevant road sections were predicted to perform under capacity with LOS D / VOC under

0.9. The model network results of 2021 to 2036 Do Something scenarios are presented in

Appendix F.




Page 14

5 Conclusion

5.1 Summary

The latest demographic and land use forecast produced for Mackay indicated that the

overall forecast population growth is predicted to be 1.4% per annum from 2011 to 2036,

and employment growth of 0.7% per annum from 2011 to 2036. As the growth is unevenly

allocated, Eimeo-Rural View have the largest share of population growth with 10,700 total

increase or a 2.9% per annum growth rate. Ooralea-Bakers Creek have the largest share of

employment growth with 11,000 total increase or a 3.5% growth rate per annum.

In general, the modelled network in Mackay was predicted to perform satisfactorily in the

base case scenarios up to 2026. In the 2031 and 2036 base case scenarios, certain roads in

the northern Mackay area were predicted to experience congestion issues, including

Mackay-Bucasia Road, Glenpark Street, Norris Road, Beaconsfield Road and Holts Road.

The predicted areas of congestion were found to generally be caused by traffic demand

growth in Rural View and the Northern Beaches areas. Network performance was found to

be relatively better in south Mackay with only a few short sections highlighted on Milton

Street and Paradise Road.

The model results in the future year base case scenarios indicated the following

recommended upgrades for consideration.

2026

- Scheme 14 – Paradise Road signalised intersection upgrade at Webberley Street

with 2 through lanes on Paradise Road approach

2031

- Scheme 1012, 1014 – Mackay Bucasia Road duplication between Old Eimeo Road

and Downie Avenue

- Scheme 1009 – Mackay Bucasia / Habana Road / Golflinks Road intersection

upgrade with increase roundabout capacity

- Scheme 29, 30 – Glenpark Street duplication at railway overpass and Maplethorpe

Bridge crossings

- Scheme 2024 – Glenpark Street section between Beaconsfield Road and Bedford

Road

- Scheme 4013 – Beaconsfield Road section between Norris Road and Holts Road

2036

- Scheme 2012 – Shoal Point Road between Kemp Street north and Royal Sands

Blvd

- Scheme 20 – Milton Street between Bridge Road and Graffunder Street, 4 lane

divided signalised intersection upgrade

- Scheme 71, 83 – Reed Street extension and Rosewood Drive to McCreadys Creek,

upgrade minor collector to subarterial

- Scheme 72, 73, 97 – Dawson Blvd extension to north boundary of Richmond Hills

and south boundary of Premier Vista stage 1, upgrade minor collector to subarterial




Page 15

- Scheme 67 – Eimeo Road to east boundary of Plantation Palms, upgrade minor

collector to subarterial

- Scheme 76 – roundabout upgrade at Mackay Habana Road / Richmond Road

intersection

It should be noted that the schemes of Reed Street extension and Dawson Boulevard

extension would be driven by local residential development in the Rural View area. These

projects will provide greater accessibility to the developments, resulting in improvements

to the overall network performance in the area. Such improvements include helping to

mitigate the predicted capacity issue on Mackay-Bucasia Road through traffic diversion.

The actual timing of both projects will be determined by the development stages in this

area. The modelling results help understand the benefit of the projects based on the current

assumed development plans in accordance with the population and land use forecast.

With the inclusion of project upgrades in the do something scenarios, the Mackay network

was found to operate satisfactory in the modelled future years.

5.2 Limitations of the study

MATM is a transport modelling tool to undertake high level transport planning and

analysis to support feasibility assessments and to provide demand inputs to the next level

of more detailed transport modelling and analysis.

The projects identified in this modelling exercise provide a strategic assessment of the

future network upgrade requirements in Mackay. The project recommendations were made

to address growth related issues, but did not include other important considerations that

would inform investment decisions, such as safety improvements, cost benefit analysis,

environmental impact etc.

As such, it is recommended to carry out detailed analysis and / or multi criteria analysis for

proposed projects when it comes to the actual planning stage. The interventions in the

network would be subject to detailed project planning and investment decision-making.




Page 16

Appendix A MGAM Population and Employment

Forecast

MGAM population forecast by SA2 sector

Total population by SA2

sector

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Mackay 4,272 4,257 4,504 4,929 6,118 9,703

East Mackay 4,076 3,840 3,990 4,244 4,442 4,558

West Mackay 6,843 6,397 6,535 6,617 6,731 6,825

South Mackay 7,671 7,645 7,719 7,719 7,662 7,605

Ooralea - Bakers Creek 4,326 4,761 5,286 6,850 8,533 10,698

Walkerston - Eton 8,986 9,345 9,864 10,043 10,363 10,500

Mackay Harbour 611 486 832 929 965 1,105

North Mackay 7,390 6,902 7,091 7,269 7,393 7,741

Mount Pleasant - Glenella 11,554 11,401 13,344 14,026 15,487 16,916

Andergrove - Beaconsfield 16,312 16,194 17,437 19,114 20,117 20,876

Slade Point 4,338 3,990 4,151 4,159 4,184 4,186

Eimeo - Rural View 10,462 12,043 14,522 17,173 18,651 21,163

Shoal Point - Bucasia 5,685 6,064 6,678 8,138 10,530 12,458

Pioneer Valley 6,842 7,380 8,211 8,800 9,365 9,956

Sarina 10,209 10,475 10,763 11,507 12,850 13,490

Seaforth - Calen 7,574 7,115 7,099 7,254 7,319 7,347

Total Resident Population 117,151 118,294 128,023 138,769 150,709 165,127

Growth (from the previous

model year)

0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8%

MGAM employment forecast by SA2 sector

Total employment by SA2

sector

2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036

Mackay 17,018 12,330 14,057 14,549 15,348 15,731

East Mackay 828 254 266 291 306 310

West Mackay 4,051 2,805 2,906 2,942 3,166 3,241

South Mackay 1,839 2,754 2,791 2,824 2,864 2,873

Ooralea - Bakers Creek 7,985 11,256 12,007 13,223 14,392 18,966

Walkerston - Eton 1,879 1,590 1,624 1,640 1,680 1,722

Mackay Harbour 1,419 1,624 1,627 1,628 1,638 1,715

North Mackay 3,824 2,288 2,430 2,653 2,716 2,749

Mount Pleasant - Glenella 4,804 4,406 5,436 5,835 6,109 6,238

Andergrove - Beaconsfield 2,574 1,366 1,495 1,586 1,690 1,761

Slade Point 1,111 780 815 821 828 841

Eimeo - Rural View 1,064 720 884 1,302 1,400 1,639

Shoal Point - Bucasia 509 750 764 727 709 661

Pioneer Valley 1,196 1,510 1,555 1,641 1,938 2,300

Sarina 4,282 3,440 3,528 3,562 4,095 4,774

Seaforth - Calen 909 597 606 610 611 603

Total Jobs 55,292 48,471 52,793 55,836 59,489 66,123

Growth (from the previous

model year)

-2.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.3% 2.1%




Page 17

Appendix B MATM Trip Generation & Attraction

Rates

MATM trip generation rates (Urban)

Households with.. HBW - Blue

HBW - White

HBE HBS HBO

0 Blue Collar workers

1 Blue Collar workers 1.486 0.716 0.299


3 Blue Collar workers+ 6.149 1.987 0.299

0 White Collar workers

1 White Collar workers 1.324 0.592 0.745


3 +White Collar workers+ 4.437 2.026 1.617

0 Dependant (0-17 years)

1 Dependant (0-17 years) 2.496 0.676 1.152

2 Dependant (0-17 years) 5.071 0.893 2.694

3 +Dependant (0-17 years) 8.399 1.519 3.810

0 Dependant (18-64years)

1 Dependant (18-64years) 0.306 1.414 0.698

2 Dependant (18-64years) 0.427 2.465 1.180

3 +Dependant (18-64years) 0.427 2.465 1.180

0 Dependant (65+ years)

1 Dependant (65+ years) 1.271 0.482


3 +Dependant (65+ years) 3.119 1.804

R squared (adjusted) 0.599 0.576 0.622 0.397 0.315

Standard error 1.054 1.523 2.230 2.648 3.214

MATM trip generation rates (Rural)

Households with.. HBW - Blue

HBW - White

HBE HBS HBO

0 Blue Collar workers



3 Blue Collar workers+ 3.641 0.809 1.203

0 White Collar workers



3 White Collar workers+ 3.920 0.478 0.917

0 Dependant (0-17 years)

1 Dependant (0-17 years) 2.448 0.262 2.966

2 Dependant (0-17 years) 5.084 0.262 3.699

3 +Dependant (0-17 years) 8.378 0.262 6.655

0 Dependant (18-64years)

1 Dependant (18-64years) 0.084 0.450 1.274

2 Dependant (18-64years) 0.084 1.318 1.365

3 +Dependant (18-64years) 0.084 1.318 1.365

0 Dependant (65+ years)



3 +Dependant (65+ years) 0.892 1.035

R squared (adjusted)

Standard error




Page 18

Trip Attraction Coefficients (All sectors)

HBW-B HBW-W HBE HBS HBO NHB

Private households

Resident Population 0.337 0.265

Preschool and Primary School

Enrolments

2.917

Secondary School Enrolments 2.841

Tertiary Education Enrolments 0.379

Retail Jobs 0.1079 2.381 3.07 0.376 3.945

Service Jobs 0.698 1.327 1.552 1.950

Professional Jobs 0.014 0.865

Industry Jobs 2.187 0.326

Mining Jobs 0.514

Other Jobs 1.388 0.514




Page 19

Appendix C Link VOC and LOS Description

Volume /

Capacity Criteria

Indicative level

of service

Description

<35% A Generally free flow conditions. Vehicles are unhindered in

manoeuvring in the traffic stream and stopped delay at

junctions is minimal

35% - 50% B Generally free flow conditions. Vehicles are unhindered in

manoeuvring in the traffic stream and stopped delay at

junctions is minimal

50% - 75% C Relatively unimpeded operation. Manoeuvring in traffic

stream is only slighted restricted and stopping delays are low

75% - 90% D Stable operating conditions with manoeuvring becoming more

restricted

90% - 100% E Conditions border on a range in which small increases in flow

may significantly reduce travel speed

>100% F Conditions characterised by significant junction delays and

extensive queuing. Speeds are very low




Page 20

Appendix D 2021 Base Case Project List

Scheme

ID

Road Name Section Work Description

TMR Project

1001 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Bruce Highway -

Malcolmson St

Six lanes Bruce Highway - Malcomson

Street

1002 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Bruce Highway -

Malcolmson St

Retain as Rbt but increase capacity to match

3 lane approaches

1003 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Malcomson St –

Phillips St

Six lanes from Malcomson Street – Phillip

Street

1004 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Phillips St

downstream

Six Lanes downstream of Phillip Street

Intersection

242 Mackay-Bucasia Rd Phillips St

Intersection

Signalised. Review layout with 3 lane

approaches

1016 Mackay-Slade Point

Rd

Bruce Highway -

River St

Additional lanes from Bruce Highway -

Milton St (inbound only)

1017 Mackay-Slade Point

Rd

Bruce Highway -

River St

Additional stand up lanes on each leg

Gordon St/Milton Nth & Sth. Completed

and coded as latest intersection layout

1023 Rockleigh-North

Mackay Rd

I/S Evans Ave &

Palmer St - Harbour

Rd

Capacity Downgrade and signal remains

1024 Rockleigh-North

Mackay Rd

Malcomson St -

Intersection Evans

Ave & Palmer St

Capacity Downgrade and signal remains

1026 Maraju-Yakapari Rd Bruce Hwy -

Glennella Connection

Rd

Intersection upgrade at Windmill Crossing -

roundabout

1045 Bruce Highway

South

Homebush Rd - City

Gates

Duplication from Temples Lane to Farrellys

Road

1046 Bruce Highway

South

Homebush Rd - City

Gates

Intersection Upgrade at Temples Lane –

signals

1047 Bruce Highway

South

Homebush Rd - City

Gates

Intersection upgrade at Stockroute Road -

roundabout

1048 Bruce Highway

South

Homebush Rd - City

Gates

Intersection upgrade at Boundary Road -

signals

1049 Bruce Highway

South

Homebush Rd - City

Gates

Additional lanes at City Gates intersection

1054 Bruce Highway

South

City Gates -

Showgrounds

Additional left turn lanes onto Bruce

Highway at Showgrounds

1055 Bruce Highway

South

City Gates -

Showgrounds

Additional lanes at Shakespeare Street

intersection

1059 Bruce Highway

North

Heaths Road/Sams

Road - Bucasia

Turnoff

Intersection upgrade at Sams Road -

additional stand up lanes (3 each way no

change)

1060 Bruce Highway

North

Heaths Road/Sams

Road - Bucasia

Turnoff

Additional lanes from Sams Rd to Bucasia

Rd

1062 Bruce Highway

North

Heaths Road/Sams

Road - Bucasia

Turnoff

Intersection upgrade at Bucasia Rd -

additional stand up lanes

1063 Bruce Highway

North

Bucasia Turnoff –

Phillips St

Duplication from Bucasia Rd to Phillip

Street

1064 Bruce Highway

North

Phillips St – Barnes

Rd

Duplication from Phillip Street to Barnes

Road (changed to Bald Hill Rd)

3004 Mackay Ring Road

Stage 1

Stockroute Road -

Bruce Highway

North

new 2 lane undivided highway with 100

km/h posted speed

3009 Bruce Highway

South

Hay Point Rd -

Homebush Rd

Intersection upgrade at Hay Point Rd -

roundabout

MRC Project




Page 21

1 Connors Road

Upgrade

Farrellys Lane to East

Boundary Street

Upgrade to two through and median turn

lane. Services to ultimate alignment

2 Connors Road

Upgrade - Incl

Intersection

East Boundary Road

to Archibald Street

Signalised int E Boundary and 4 lane to

Archibald

7 Farrellys Lane

Construction

Connors Road to

Michelmore Street

4 lane divided

8 Farrellys Lane

Construction - Incl

Michel Inter

Michelmore Street to

Milton Street

two through and median turn lane divided

9 Archibald / Paradise

Intersection

(242/LGSR/8)

Dual Lane

Roundabout

Dual lane roundabout

12 Paradise Street

Upgrade

(120/LGSA/10)

Stage 1 (Henman),

Stage 2 (George),

George Street to

Henman Street

4 lane construction divided and roundabout,

completed interim upgrade as 2 lanes

13 Bridge/Paradise

Intersection

Signalised

intersection

Signalised intersection 4 lane

22 Milton/Boundary

Intersection (DTMR

No. yet to be

assigned)

Intersection

signalisation and four

laning

4 lane divided signalised intersection,

interim upgrade as 2 lanes signals

26 Bedford Rd Coles Rd to

Andergrove Rd

4 lane divided construction, signalised

intersection and dual lane roundabout

construction

31 Glenpark/Evans/Shor

t Street

(242/LGSR/5)

Intersection

improvements

Linked signalised intersections

32 Malcomson

Street/Charles Hodge

Dan Murphy

Intersection

4 lane signalised intersection, interim

upgrade as 2 lanes signals

41 Boundary Road West Hwy/Rainlover Roundabout construction and two through

and median lane construction

95 Pioneer/ Gingham

Roundabout

Developer

contribution

Roundabout construction

101 Juliet / Penn

Intersection

Intersection

signalisation

Intersection signalisation

105 Rosewood Road Collector Roads for

Rosewood

Developments

Connectivity for Rosewood

106 River Street Gregory St to Sydney

St Eastbound Only

Left turn lane duplication

2007 Shakespeare Street

downgrade to 2

btw Milton St and

Sydney St

downgrade to 2 lanes

4012 Malcomson St Greenfields Blvd to

Norris Rd

Convert 2 lane to 4 lane construction

ultimately, interim completed between

Greenfield Blvd and Charles Hodge Ave

Network Correction

n/a Bruce Highway

South

City Gates -

Showgrounds

Changed Shakespeare St intersection to

match existing 2016 layout

n/a Bruce Highway

South

City Gates -

Showgrounds

Added link for left turn slip lanes from

Bruce Hwy to Gordon St

n/a Bruce Highway

South

Homebush Rd - City

Gates

Changed Temple Ln intersection to match

existing 2016 layout

n/a Eimeo Road Mackay-Bucasia Rd -

Blacks Beach Rd

Increased North-East approach minimum

capacity to match 2 lane approach




Page 22

Appendix E 2011 – 2036 Base Case Network Result

Plots

2011 BY Daily link volumes




Page 23

2021 BC Daily Link Volumes




Page 24





Page 25





Page 26





Page 27

2011 BY PM Volume over Capacity




Page 28

2021 BC PM Volume over Capacity




Page 29





Page 30





Page 31





Page 32

2011 BY PM Average Intersection Delay




Page 33

2021 BC PM Average Intersection Delay




Page 34





Page 35





Page 36





Page 37

Appendix F 2021 – 2036 Do Something Network Result

Plots

2021 DS Daily Link Volumes




Page 38





Page 39





Page 40





Page 41

2021 DS PM Volume over Capacity




Page 42





Page 43





Page 44





Page 45

2021 DS PM Average Intersection Delay




Page 46





Page 47





Page 48


mackay area transport modelling report july 2017

Documents