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Notes

In terms of the stock market, a major trend is generally categorized as one lasting longer than ayear.

An intermediate trend is considered to last between one and three months and a near-termtrend is anything less than a month.

A stock jumps 5% in one trading day after being in a long downtrend. Is this a sign of a trendreversal?

If volume is high during the day relative to the average daily volume, it is a sign that the reversalis probably for real. On the other hand, if the volume is below average, there may not be enoughconviction to support a true trend reversal.

If volume is starting to decrease in an uptrend, it is usually a sign that the upward run is aboutto end.

Linear scale reflects absolute price change log scale depicts percentage price changes.

A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will reverse upon completion of the pattern. Acontinuation pattern, on the other hand, signals that a trend will continue once the pattern iscomplete.

SMAThis is the most common method used to calculate the moving average of prices. It simply takesthe sum of all of the past closing prices over the time period and divides the result by thenumber of prices used in the calculation. Increasing the number of time periods in thecalculation is one of the best ways to gauge the strength of the long-term trend and thelikelihood that it will reverse.

Linear Weighted Average

This moving average indicator is the least common out of the three and is used to address the

problem of the equal weighting. The linear weighted moving average is calculated by taking thesum of all the closing prices over a certain time period and multiplying them by the position ofthe data point and then dividing by the sum of the number of periods. For exampl e, in a five-daylinear weighted average, today's closing price is multiplied by five, yesterday's by four and so onuntil the first day in the period range is reached. These numbers are then added together anddivided by the sum of the multipliers.

MACD(Convergence Divergence)

It is used by traders to monitor the relationship between two moving averages. It is generallycalculated by subtracting a 26-day exponential moving average from a 12-day EMA. When theMACD has a positive value, the short-term average is located above the long-term average. Asmentioned earlier, this stacking order of the averages is an indication of upward momentum. A

negative value occurs when the short-term average is below the long-term average - a sign thatthe current momentum is in the downward direction.

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SMA

20/ 50-period (1w) and 50/200-period moving averages

The momentum of the SMA curve shows a major long term uptrend after end of 2008.

Recently, SMA-20 shows a downward trend after hitting a peak of Rs. 1209.32

As the SMA-20 is crossing the SMA-50 around on July-08, 2011 it is indicates a negative trendthat price will start declining. It could signal a short term shift.

A decline in SMA-20 can also be seen in Jul-2011 after dividend distribution (Indicated by D)

From the data of SMA-50 and SMA-200 we can see that SMA-50 has crossed SMA-200 at aroundApril-2010 which signifies an uptrend in long term prices.

Verdict- No buy, Sell now. Price will fall further according to trendlines.

MACD

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Short period-12, Long Period-26 EMA-9 days

Recent trends indicate a negative MACD value which indicates a stronger downtrend. And itsignals a bad time to buy the stock.

Around May, 2011 the MACD line crossed the EMA signal line which indicates a bearish signal.

BOLLINGER BANDS

From 2011 onwards the prices seems to convey a downtrend. It fluctuates between the lowerband and the 10-period (1w) moving average. However in 2010 period it was continuouslyfluctuating between the trend average and upper band. The prices might fall further from Rs976.50.