m-these jane visser - hogeschool inholland · criterion variables dropout and study success....
TRANSCRIPT
The Influence of Psychological Factors and Self-confidence on Study Success and
Dropout
Jane Visser
Student number: 2515838
Supervisor: Dr. F. R. Kappe
Second assessor: L. S. Peperkoorn
Master thesis Work and Organizational Psychology
June, 2017
Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 2
Abstract
There are more and more people who start a higher education in the Netherlands,
however a large group (40%) of students dropout after the first study year. This is due
to several reasons and 15% of the students never return to school. This research
focuses on several predictors of dropout and study success and on the possible effect
of psychological factors. The central research question is ‘To what extent can study
success and dropout be predicted from psychological factors and self-confidence?’ A
quantitative field study is conducted amongst 4650 students from the Inholland
University of Applied Sciences. Participants filled in an online survey, with multiple
questionnaires related to the main research variables: psychological factors and the
criterion variables dropout and study success. Self-confidence is also taken into
account as a moderator and the predictors gender, ethnicity, prior education, intrinsic
motivation and self-discipline are taken into account as control variables. The results
show that there is no direct or indirect effect of psychological factors on study
success. Only the control variables gender, ethnicity and some prior educations were
related to dropout and study success.
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 3
Introduction
The number of people who start a higher education in the Netherlands and
other Western countries has increased. This is needed, because today’ society consists
of a less services based economy, but a knowledge based economy that asks for
higher educated people (Brouwer, Jansen, Hofman, & Flache, 2016). This can be a
benefit for the Dutch economy to grow, giving people a bright future, having more
resources to start a family and more resources to live healthy. But there are also some
obstacles. At first, a higher education brings high costs for which many students will
take a loan. The mean study debt was in 2014 15,000 euros (CPB, 2014) and will
increase nowadays even more with the abolition of the basic grant (Markteffect,
2015). Second, 40% of the students quit their study within the first year and become a
dropout, whereof 15% permanently leave higher education (Rusman, 2014). This is
due to several reasons, for example switching to another study or not being capable of
getting the right amount of credits to get through the first school year. Becoming a
dropout brings psychological and financial problems and dropouts are costly to
society (Maynard, Salas-Wright, & Vaughn, 2015).
Therefore, it is becoming increasingly important that students choose the right
study in order to avoid early and later psychological and financial problems. In the
Netherlands Universities and colleges use different tools to see if students fit their
study choice. In particular, the Inholland University of Applied Sciences in the
Netherlands uses the check for study choice (studiekeuzecheck, SKC) to allow
students to check if they made the right study choice and additionally uses some other
tools (Kappe, 2015). For example a personal conversation about the motivation for
the study choice of the student, study experience at a University or college for a day
or doing some homework. So Universities and colleges have different approaches to
check the students’ study choice and are still looking for the advantages and the
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 4
disadvantages of certain approaches. Therefore empirical research might help
Universities and colleges to find the right combination of the SKC, such as a
conversation about the motivation of the student together with a personality
questionnaire. This research will focus on finding predictors related to dropout and
study success, so there can be made a better fit between the characteristics of the
students and their study choice in order to reduce the dropout rates.
Furthermore, this research also has a theoretical and practical reason. The
theoretical reason is that this research can add evidence to earlier research that
focused on predictors related to dropout and study success, which in turn contribute to
the evidence of theoretical models of dropout and study success. A practical reason is
that it is necessary to find predictors related to dropout, so Universities and colleges
know what they can do about the dropout rates. It is important to know that
psychological factors are related to dropout, because 49% of the Dutch students say
that they have or have had psychological problems in college and almost 23% of the
Dutch students report psychological problems at this time (Schmidt, & Simons,
2013). In order to explore predictors related to dropout and study success in the
Netherlands this research uses the online survey that is administrated as part of the
check for study choice (SKC) at the Inholland University of Applied Sciences. The
online survey consists of questions about the capacities, motivation, personality, study
situation and study orientation behavior of the students, along with background
information of the students. The SKC is of theoretical relevance, because the SKC is
used to do research about predictors related to dropout and study success, which in
turn contribute to theoretical models of dropout and study success. First, previous
research will be discussed that already focused on predictors related to dropout and
study success.
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 5
Early research from Tinto (1975) describes a theoretical model related to
dropout, in which Tinto relates background information, different commitments and
integration into school to dropout. For example, the chance of an individual dropping
out from college is related to the characteristics of the family, especially students
from a lower socioeconomic environment exhibit higher rates of dropout (Tinto,
1975). Tinto also suggests that a student will tend to dropout from college when the
student perceives that an alternative form of investment of time will produce greater
benefits over time than staying in college.
Figure 1. Tinto’s Conceptual Model for Dropout from College.
This model of Tinto is used as a basis for further research and has received some
criticism. Some researchers (Braxton, Milem, & Sullivan, 2000; van den Bogaard,
2011) tested Tinto’s model and only found support for five of the 13 propositions in
the model, for example family background, individual attributes, pre-schooling,
institutional commitment and social integration. Certain aspects of the family
Family Background
Pre-College Schooling
Individual Attributes
Goal Commitment
Institutional Commitment
Commitments Academic System
Grade Performance Intellectual Development
Peer-Group Interactions Faculty Interactions
Social System
Academic Intergration
Social Intergration
Institutional Commitment
Goal Commitment
Commitments
Dropout Decisions
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 6
background, individual attributes and pre-schooling lead to institutional commitment
which leads to social integration (Braxton, Milem, & Sullivan, 2000; van den
Bogaard, 2011). Furthermore, different researchers made adaptations to Tinto’s model
but none of the models explain completely why certain students dropout and other
students do not (van den Bogaard, 2011). But these models can still be very useful in
practice, because these models provide multiple predictors of dropout. The most
stable predictor is the ability of the student, besides this other predictors are personal
situation, age, gender, SES, prior education, disabilities, motivation, success intention,
fear of failure, commitment, time spent on studying, goal setting, ability to
concentrate, seek help if needed, attended lecture hours, number of exams
successfully completed, available facilities for the students and the way the education
is organized (van den Bogaard, 2011). Finding support for these hypothesized
predictors of dropout has led to more research. In line with Tinto’s model, research
from Rosenthal (1998) found that socioeconomic status, minority group status,
gender, social support for in school staying, family process, student involvement in
education, autonomy needs versus social conforming, deviance and personality traits,
like conscientiousness are related to dropout. Another research has suggested that
psychiatric disorders, which include anxiety disorder, mood disorder, substance use
and conduct disorder are important determinants of high school students’ educational
attainment and dropout (Carsley, Heath, Gomez-Garibello, & Mills, 2016). This
research suggests that there is a positive relationship between adolescent’s report of
anxiety and dropout, whereby high anxiety is associated with an increased risk of
dropout. However, Carsley et al. (2016) found a small correlation between anxiety
and dropout (r = .36, N = 546). Psychological factors are things like a depression, fear
of failure, substance abuse and anxiety disorders. Furthermore, in the study of
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 7
McCaffrey, Pacula, Han and Ellickson (2010) was found a positive association
between marijuana use and dropping out. After controlling for the differences in
observational characteristics and behavior of the students at the start of the study the
association between marijuana use and dropping out in high school is still large
(McCaffrey et al., 2010). Elffers (2012) found that personal circumstances in
students’ lives outside college, such as drug abuse and pregnancy are found as risk
indicators in dropout statistics. In particular, marijuana use is positively related to
school dropout in Dutch higher education and students who use soft drugs also
reported less academic engagement (Elffers, 2012). Only, this research did not show
how strong the relationship is between drug use and dropout, which is one of the
included psychological factors. Furthermore, being a dropout also has consequences
later in life. Prior research has found that dropout is associated with numerous social
and behavioral health problems including poorer mental and physical health, less
positive well-being and greater involvement in criminal activity relative to those who
graduate from high school (Maynard, Salas-Wright, & Vaughn 2015). For example,
dropouts are more likely to report cigarette use and nicotine dependence than college
graduates. Maynard et al. (2015) also found that dropouts are two times more likely to
report attempted suicide and are more likely to experience adverse behavioral health
conditions than those who graduated. Besides this, a strong relationship was found
between criminal behavior and being a dropout (Maynard et al., 2015).
Besides the predictors of dropout, predictors related to study success are also
widely researched. Study success refers to being successful in school, which means
getting the right amount of study points and/or getting high grades. Previous research
has indeed found some predictors of study success. For example, Conscientiousness is
found to be a predictor of performance in higher education for different types of
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 8
performance criterion and Neuroticism is also a predictor for higher education
performance, but only when the assessment conditions were less stressful (Kappe, &
van der Flier, 2010). Another predictor would be General Mental Ability (GMA), this
predictor has a significant positive effect on academic performance (Song et al.,
2010). Earlier research also found the ability of a student as a predictor of study
success (van den Bogaard, 2011). Furthermore, intrinsic motivation is found as a
predictor of performance (Cerasoli, Nicklin, & Ford, 2014). Intrinsic motivation
refers to doing something because it is interesting or enjoyable. Intrinsic motivation
has emerged as an important phenomenon for educators, because it results in high
quality learning and creativity (Ryan, & Deci, 2000). Previous research found that the
population-level relation between intrinsic motivation and performance is positive,
indicating that intrinsic motivation is a moderate (ρ = .26, k = 183, N = 212,468)
predictor of performance (Cerasoli, Nicklin, & Ford 2014). Besides this, Komarraju,
Karau and Schmeck (2009) found that intrinsic motivation predicts grade point
average (GPA), but intrinsic motivation explained only 4% of the variance in GPA
and conscientiousness reduced the relationship between intrinsic motivation and
GPA. Another predictor is self-discipline, which is the capacity to do what you want
to do, knowing how to manage your emotions and thoughts and knowing how to plan
your behavior, so you can reach your goals (Duckworth, 2009). Duckworth and
Seligman (2005) found that self-discipline (r = .67, N = 164) predicted the final grade
more robustly than IQ (r = .32, N = 164) did and self-discipline also predicted which
students would improve their grades over the course of the school year, whereas IQ
did not. However, it was not clear if the final grade was based on one or more school
years and Duckworth and Seligman (2005) did not measure the incremental validity
of self-discipline. Furthermore, self-confidence, which is the belief in one’s self and
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 9
in his/her powers and abilities (White, 2009; Bandura, 1993) emerged as a predictor
of academic performance (Tavani, & Losh, 2003). Tavani and Losh (2003) reported a
small relationship between student’s self-confidence and academic performance (r =
.17, N = 4,012), whereby higher level’s of student’s self-confidence results in higher
levels of their academic performance (Tavani, & Losh, 2003).
There are many predictors of dropout and study success (Tinto, 1975;
Rosenthal, 1998), but this research will focus on psychological factors and the
students’ self-confidence. Previous studies have already found some implications for
psychological factors and self-confidence being related to dropout (Carsley et al.,
2016; Elffers, 2012; McCaffrey et al., 2010; Tavani, & Losh, 2003). The research
question is ‘To what extent can study success and dropout be predicted from
psychological factors and self-confidence?’ Study success will be expressed in both
European credits (ECs) and grade point average (GPA) and dropout will be expressed
in yes (being a dropout) or no (not being a dropout). This research focuses on these
variables, because earlier research did not find strong relationships and not all of the
previous research had a large sample size. Besides this, little research has been done
in the Netherlands; especially in higher education, while many students study in
higher education.
The first hypothesis is that psychological factors are positively related to (1a)
dropout and negatively related to study success, expressed in (1b) ECs and (1c) GPA.
It is expected that having obstruction from a psychological factor results in an
increase in the change of becoming a dropout and a decrease in study success,
expressed in ECs and GPA. This is expected, because as mentioned earlier previous
research has suggested that psychological disorders, like anxiety disorder and
substance use are important determinants of dropout (Carsley, Heath, Gomez-
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 10
Garibello, & Mills, 2016). Furthermore, previous research found that personal
circumstances in students’ live outside school, such as drug abuse are often found as
risk indicators for dropping out (Elffer, 2011; McCaffrey, Pacula, Han, & Ellickson,
2010). This is not yet researched in relationship with study success.
The second hypothesis is that self-confidence moderates the relationship
between psychological factors and (2a) dropout, (2b) ECs and (2c) GPA. It is
expected that the student’s self-confidence weakens the relationship between
psychological factors and dropout and weakens the relationship between
psychological factors and study success (ECs and GPA). The moderating effect of the
students’ self-confidence is expected, because self-confidence is positively related to
academic performance (Tavani, & Losh, 2003). As mentioned earlier higher levels of
self-confidence result in higher levels of their academic performance. However, little
is known about de moderating effect of self-confidence on the relationship between
psychological factors and dropout and study success.
Furthermore, hypothesis one and two will be tested again, controlling for
gender, ethnicity, prior education, intrinsic motivation and self-discipline. Tinto
(1975) and Rosenthal (1998) found that gender, ethnicity and prior education are
related to dropout. Furthermore, intrinsic motivation is related to performance and
predicts GPA (Cerasoli, Nicklin, & Ford, 2014; Komarraju, Karau, & Schmeck,
2009). Duckworth and Seligman (2005) found that self-discipline predicted academic
performance more robustly than IQ did. This is the reason why there will be
controlled for these variables. The third hypothesis is that the relationships of
hypothesis one and two are significant after controlling for gender, ethnicity, prior
education, intrinsic motivation and self-discipline. The conceptual model of the
hypotheses is illustrated in Figure 2. This model is similar to the model of Tinto
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 11
(1975), because the model in Figure 2 also shows that characteristics of the students
are related to dropout and study success.
Figure 2. Conceptual model H1, H2, H3
Research method
Participants
The 4650 participants in this quantitative field study are fulltime bachelor
students from the Inholland University of Applied Sciences in the Netherlands. The
participants consisted of 2342 (50,4%) males and 2308 (49,6%) females. The average
age of the participants is 22 (SD = 3.04) years. There are questions about personal
background, personality, capacities, study situation, study orientation behavior,
motivation and specific topics for certain educational studies. The sample exists of
students from different locations of the Inholland University of Applied Sciences who
started their study in September 2015. All students were required to fill in the online
survey after they enrolled in a study of their own choice, so the response rate is almost
100%.
Measures
Dropout
_+
Psychological factors
Self-confidence
Study success
_
Gender Ethnicity Prior education Intrinsic motivation Self-discipline
H2
H3
H1
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 12
This study measures demographic information, study situation (psychological
factors), self-confidence, self-discipline, intrinsic motivation, gender, ethnicity, prior
education, dropout and study success, expressed in ECs and GPA. The participants
filled in the online survey on a computer at home. The first questions in the survey are
questions about demographics, like gender, age, ethnicity and current or highest
educational level. These questions are followed by other questionnaires, which were
relevant for this study.
Predictor variables
For measuring psychological factors, this study uses the Study Situation
questionnaire (NOA). The Study Situation questionnaire contains 12 partly closed
items about available study time, physical or psychological factors (fear of failure,
addiction and depression) which may hinder their study, additional learning support,
taking care of others, available help from others with studying, financial situation,
having a good place to study, having a part-time job or job, other extracurricular
activities and average travel time. The important item is ‘There are psychological
factors (fear of failure, addiction and depression) for me to consider in this study’.
The items are answered on a 5-point-likert-scale with 1 = “totally not applicable” to 5
= “well applicable”. This study uses this one item as measure of possible
psychological factors.
Another predictor variable is self-confidence that is measured by using the
Multicultural Personality Test (MPT), which is a personality questionnaire (Stichting
Noa, 2007). The MPT consists of six characteristics related to personality, like
emotional stability, extraversion, conscientiousness, openness, agreeableness and
integrity. In this study an adapted version is used to measure personality
characteristics related to study situation. The adapted version of the MPT consists of
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 13
ten subscales, namely rules and orderliness, self-discipline, adaptability, self-esteem
and performance anxiety, extrovert study behavior, integrity study behavior, initiative,
creativity, inquisitiveness and friendly and social behavior. This questionnaire
consists of 92 items and an example item is ‘I often think that a study assignment is
too difficult for me’. The items are answered on a 5-point-likert-scale with 1 =
“totally not applicable” to 5 = “well applicable”. The items are aggregated into the ten
scales and they have an average reliability of .81, this means that there is an average
to high internal consistency.
Control variables
The control variable self-discipline is also measured by using the MPT. The
Motivatie Vragenlijst voor Hoger onderwijs (MV-H) is used to measure the
controlling variable intrinsic motivation (NOA). This questionnaire gives a
representation of the motivation for a particular study. Motivation is divided into four
categories, namely intrinsic motivation, extrinsic motivation, achievement motivation
and confidence and certainty. This questionnaire consists of 55 items and an example
item is ‘I think the content of the study I have chosen is very interesting’. The items
are answered on a 5-point-likert-scale with 1 = “totally not applicable” to 5 = “well
applicable”. The items are aggregated into scales representing the four motivation
categories. Furthermore, the data for the controlling variables gender (male = 0,
female = 1), ethnicity (native = 0, non-native = 1) and prior education are obtained
from the demographic information. A non-native student is someone who is born
abroad or at least one of the parents is born abroad (CBS).
Criterion variables
The criterion variables dropout and study success, expressed in ECs and GPA
were available after the first school year at the student administration and the central
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 14
database. The data for dropout (no = 0, yes = 1) is available in the central database
and the participants’ GPA (0-10) and their amount of ECs (0-60) is available at the
student administration.
Procedure
This study uses an online survey in line with the SKC. After signing up for a
study at the Inholland University of Applied Sciences the students receive a link to a
survey containing questions about their background and multiple questionnaires. The
first page of the online survey is an informed consent, which contains information
about the goal of the SKC and that their answers will be used for matching purposes
and not as a selection criterion. This survey also contains a debrief form at the end of
the survey. The debrief form informs the students about the goal of the SKC and that
they can contact the principal investigator of the Inholland University of Applied
Sciences for further questions. As mentioned, after the first study year the grade point
average, number of credit points and dropout were collected using the student
administration and the central database.
Statistical analysis
First, 94 participants are removed from the sample, because some of them did
not fill in the online questionnaire, some of them already had a degree at the Inholland
University, others dropped out after the first year, some of them had dispensation for
ECs and others already had ECs in the third and fourth year of college. As a result, the
sample still consists of 4556 participants. After this, a few variables are transformed,
namely dropout, ethnicity and an interaction variable of psychological factors and
self-confidence. Furthermore, the variable psychological factors is converted, because
a high score on psychological factors means then something positive, for example that
students have no hinder of psychological factors during their study. Subsequently, the
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 15
descriptive statistics of the variables gender, ethnicity, prior education, psychological
factors, self-confidence, intrinsic motivation, self-discipline, dropout and study
success, expressed in ECs and GPA are obtained. After that, a correlation matrix is
analyzed in order to see how the variables preliminary correlate with each other. The
first hypothesis is tested with a linear regression analysis for the criterion variable
study success and with a logistic regression analysis for the criterion variable dropout.
In both the analysis the predictor variable is psychological factors. To test the second
hypothesis an interaction variable is made of the variables psychological factors and
self-confidence. To test the part of the second hypothesis with study success as the
criterion variable a regression analysis is used. To test the part of the second
hypothesis with dropout as the criterion variable a logistic regression analysis is used.
To test the third hypothesis with the controlling variables and study success as the
criterion variable a multiple regression analysis is used. For all the analyses a
significance level of p < 0.05 is maintained. The descriptive statistics of the variables
and the hypotheses are measured with the program Statistical Package for the Social
Sciences (SPSS, version 21).
Results
The descriptive statistics of the quantitative variables are in Table 1 and the
descriptive statistics of the categorical variables are in Table 2.
Table 1. Descriptive Statistics of the Quantitative Predictor and Criterion Variables, N = 4556
M SD Range Skewness Kurtosis K-Smir S-Wilk
EC 37.72 22.96 [0-61] -.66 -1.22 .21* .81*
GPA 5.80 1.67 [1-8.60] -1.29 .95 .18* .85*
Self-confidence 37.15 5.71 [13-50] -.41 .31 .07* .99*
Intrinsic motivation 55.61 7.01 [27-74] -.14 -.08 .03* 1.00*
Self-discipline 28.21 4.79 [10-40] -.17 -.00 .06* .99* *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed)
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 16
The variable GPA is lightly skewed to the left and the other quantitative variables are
almost perfectly normal distributed. Besides this, the kurtosis of the quantitative
variables does not take extreme values, so it does not pose any problem for the
analyses. Based on the normality test in the two last columns the quantitative
variables are also not perfectly normal distributed. Furthermore, the categorical
variable psychological factors is skewed to the left and is a little bit peaked, this
means that this variable has not a normal distribution. This can cause problems for the
analyses, however the analyses are still carried out because of the theoretical and
practical relevance of this research. Based on the normality test in the last two
columns the categorical variables are not perfectly normal distributed.
Table 2. Descriptive Statistics of the Categorical Predictor and Criterion Variables, N = 4556
Frequency Percentage Cumulative Skewness Kurtosis K-Smir S-Wilk
Dropout
.09 -1.99 .35* .64*
Not a dropout 2382 52.3 52.3
A dropout 2174 47.7 100
Psychological factors
-2.69 7.78 .46* .51*
well applicable 36 .80 .80
pretty applicable 86 1.9 2.7
applicable 194 4.3 6.9
bit applicable 663 14.6 21.5
totally inapplicable 3577 78.5 100
Gender
.02 -2.00 .34* .64*
male 2301 50.5 50.5
female 2255 49.5 100
Prior education
1.02 .82 .32* .75*
abroad 69 1.5 1.5
HAVO 2333 51.2 52.7
HBO 54 1.2 53.9
MBO 1803 39.6 93.5
other 43 .90 94.4
entrance exam 69 1.5 95.9
VWO 183 4.0 100
WO
Ethnicity
.59 -1.65 .41* .61*
native 2811 61.7 61.7
non-native 1566 34.4 100 *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed)
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 17
Second, to see how the variables preliminary correlate with each other a correlation
matrix is presented (Table 3). The predictor variable psychological factors does not
correlate with one of the criterion variables dropout, ECs and GPA. However,
psychological factors has a low significant correlation with self-confidence.
Psychological factors has also a significant correlation with gender and self-
discipline, but the correlation coefficients are very small. Furthermore, ECs and GPA
are moderate to strong negatively related to dropout, this means that dropouts have a
lower amount of ECs and have a lower GPA score than non-dropouts. ECs has a
strong significant positive correlation with GPA, this means that a high score on one
variable also gives a high score on the other variable. Furthermore, the predictor
variables self-confidence, intrinsic motivation, self-discipline, gender, prior education
and ethnicity are correlated with the criterion variables dropout, ECs and GPA.
However, these correlations are very small to small, so these correlations will not add
much value. Intrinsic motivation is moderately significant correlated to self-
discipline. The variable self-confidence and the other control variables are very small
to small significant correlated with each other.
Table 3. Pearson Correlation of the Predictor and Criterion Variables, N = 4556
*Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed)
Drop-
out EC GPA Psych_f
act Self-
confidence Intr_motiv
ation Self-discipline Gen-der
Prior education
Ethnicity
Dropout - EC -.80* -
GPA -.67* .89* - Psych_fact .01 .01 .02 -
Self-confidence .04* -.06* -.06* .33* - Intr_motivation .03* -.05* -.07* .02 .23* -
Self-discipline .03* -.05* -.06* .14* .39* .57* - Gender -.09* .13* .10* -.07* -.18* .19* .16* -
Prior education .05* -.06* -.06* -.02 .06* .16* .15* .09* - Ethnicity .18* -.23* .27* -.02 .05* .22* .22* .10* .15* -
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 18
The first hypothesis is that psychological factors are positively related to (1a)
dropout and negatively related to (1b) ECs and (1c) GPA. This hypothesis was tested
with a linear regression analysis and a log-linear analysis, with the variable
psychological factors as the predictor variable and dropout, ECs and GPA as the
criterion variables. The model with ECs as the criterion variable is not significant,
F(1, 4555) = .52, p = .471, R2 = .00. This means that the variable psychological
factors does not explain any variance in ECs. The model with GPA as the criterion
variable is not significant, F(1, 4374) = 2.49, p = .115, R2 = .00. So psychological
factors did not explain the variance in GPA. The model with dropout as criterion
variables is also not significant, χ2 (4) = 1.40, p = .845, Nagelkerke R2 = .00. This
means that psychological factors are not related to dropout (see Table 4). Hypothesis
one (a, b, c) is rejected.
Table 4. Linear Regression Analysis and Log-linear Analysis Hypothesis 1, N = 4556
Predictor variable Criterion variable b/Beta SE t p 95%CI
Psych_fact EC .34/.01 .48 .72 .471 [-.59, 1.28]
Psych_fact GPA .06/.02 .04 1.58 .115 [-.01, .13]
Psych_fact Dropout - - - .845 - *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed)
The second hypothesis is that self-confidence moderates the relationship
between psychological factors and (2a) dropout and moderated the relationship
between psychological factors and (2b) ECs and (2c) GPA. The predictor variable is
psychological factors and the moderator is an interaction term of psychological
factors and self-confidence. Furthermore, the criterion variables are dropout, ECs and
GPA. To test the hypothesis a multiple linear regression analysis and a multiple log-
linear analysis are used. The model with ECs as the criterion variable is significant,
F(3, 3653) = 5.03, p = .002, R2 = .004. This means that psychological factors and self-
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 19
confidence are related to ECs. However, the explained variance in ECs is low and
none of the coefficients are significant. Besides this, the model with GPA as the
criterion variable is also significant, F(3, 3515) = 6.04, p < .001, R2 = .005. This
means that psychological factors and self-confidence are related to GPA, but the
explained variance is again low and the coefficients are not significant. So, the
predictors in the model together are better than a model without predictors, but the
predictors do not predict anything on themselves. The model with dropout as criterion
variable is not significant, χ2 (6) = 7.75, p = .257, Nagelkerke R2 = .003. This means
that psychological factors and self-discipline are not related to dropout. In general,
self-discipline does not moderate the relationship between psychological factors and
study success and the relationship between psychological factors and dropout, so
hypothesis two (a, b, c) is rejected. The results obtained from the analyses are
presented in Table 5.
Table 5. Multiple Linear Regression Analysis and Log-linear Analysis with Moderator, N = 4556
Predictor variable Criterion variable b/Beta/Exp(B) SE t p 95%CI
Psych_fact EC 1.38/.04 2.63 .53 .600 [-3.77, 6.53]
Self-confidence
-.20/-.05 .36 -.56 .573 [-.92, .51]
Interaction
-.01/-.03 .08 -.18 .854 [-.17, .14]
Psych_fact GPA .19/.08 .19 .96 .339 [-.20, .57]
Self-confidence
-.01/-.03 .03 -.31 .759 [-.06, .04]
Interaction
-.003/-.07 .01 -.51 .610 [-.01, .01]
Psych_fact Dropout .841
Self-confidence
.02/1.02 .03
.554
Interaction -.001/.99 .01 .879 *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed)
The third hypothesis is that the relationships of hypothesis one and two are
significant when controlling for gender, ethnicity, prior education, intrinsic
motivation and self-discipline. The analyses of hypothesis one and two have been
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 20
carried out again, but then together with the control variables gender, ethnicity, prior
education, intrinsic motivation and self-discipline. This is done, because it was
surprising that there were no relationships found. So, this research checks whether the
control variables, which do predict the criterion variables in earlier research (Tinto,
1975; Rosenthal, 1998; Cerasoli, Nicklin, & Ford, 2014; Komarraju, Karau, &
Schmeck, 2009; Duckworth, & Seligman, 2005) are also significant predictors in this
research. Because of the completeness, this research included these variables in the
model. The results obtained from the analyses are presented in Table 6 and 7. First,
hypothesis one with the control variables. The model with ECs as the criterion
variable is significant, F(12, 3495) = 30.56, p < .001. Psychological factors, intrinsic
motivation, self-discipline, gender, ethnicity and prior education explain 1% (R2 =
.01) of the variance in ECs. But only the variables gender, ethnicity and some prior
educations are significant predictors of ECs. Women have more ECs than men and
native students have more ECs than non-native students. Furthermore, students who
had their prior education abroad, at the hbo or at the mbo have less ECs than students
who had their prior education at the havo. The model with GPA as the criterion
variable is significant, F(12, 3370) = 35.22, p < .001. This means that the model is a
significant predictor of GPA. Psychological factors and the control variables explain
11% (R2 = .11) of the variance in GPA. However, only gender, ethnicity and some
prior educations are significant predictors of GPA. Women have a higher GPA than
men and native students have a higher GPA than non-native students. Besides this,
students who had their prior education abroad or at the mbo have a lower GPA then
students who had their prior education at the havo. Students who had their prior
education at vwo have a higher GPA than students who had their prior education at
the havo. The model with dropout as the criterion variable is significant, χ2 (15) =
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 21
184.69, p < .001. This means that this model is a significant predictor of dropout.
Psychological factors and the control variables explain 7% (Nagelkerke R2 = .07) of
the variance in dropout. However, only gender and ethnicity are significant predictors
of dropout. The odd of women dropping out is .59 times less likely than the odd of
men dropping out. The odd of native students dropping out is 1.92 times less likely
than the odd of non-native students dropping out. The results from the second
hypothesis with the control variables are the same as the results of the first hypothesis
for ECs, GPA and dropout in the sense that psychological factors do not have an
effect and that the control variables have the same effects. Based on these results,
hypothesis 3 in not rejected.
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 22
Table 6. Multiple Regression Analysis and Multiple Log-linear Analysis with Control Variables, N = 4556
Predictor variable Criterion variable b/Beta/Exp(B) SE t p 95%CI
Psych_fact EC .45/.01 .52 .85 .394 [-.58, 1.47]
Intr_motivation
-.01/-.003 .07 -.13 .898 [-.14, .12]
Self-discipline
.05/.01 .10 .57 .571 [-.13, .24]
Gender
7.36./16 .76 9.67 < .001* [5.86, 8.85]
Ethnicity
-9.77/-.21 .81 -12.02 < .001* [-11.36, -8.18]
PE1
-13.75/-.04 5.16 -2.67 .008* [-23.86, -3.64]
PE3
-15.18/-.07 3.55 -4.27 < .001* [-22.15, -8.21]
PE4
-6.32/-.14 .82 -7.73 < .001* [-7.93, -4.72]
PE5
-3.91/-.02 3.99 -.98 .327 [-11.74, 3.91]
PE6
-.50/-.003 2.95 -.16 .874 [-6.25, 5.31]
PE7
3.78/.03 2.06 1.83 .067 [-.26, 7.81]
PE8
-4.01/-.004 15.30 -.27 .793 [-34.01, 25.99]
Psych_fact GPA .05/.02 .04 1.29 .195 [-.03, .12]
Intr_motivation
-.004/-.02 .01 -.80 .424 [-.01, .01]
Self-discipline
.01/.02 .01 1.00 .318 [-.01, .02]
Gender
.47/.14 .06 8.51 < .001* [.36, .58]
Ethnicity
-.82/-.24 .06 -13.87 < .001* [-.94, -.71]
PE1
-1.09/-.04 .40 -2.71 .007* [-1.88, -.30]
PE3
-.35/-.02 .31 -1.14 .256 [-.95, .25]
PE4
-.47/-.14 .06 -7.88 < .001* [-.59, -.35]
PE5
-.29/-.02 .29 -1.00 .317 [-.86, .28]
PE6
.01/.00 .21 .02 .982 [-.41, .42]
PE7
.43/.05 .15 2.88 .004* [.14, .72]
PE8
1.09/.02 1.09 .99 .320 [-1.06, 3.23]
Psych_fact Dropout .895
Intr_motivation
-.002/1.00 .01
.713
Self-discipline
-.003/1.00 .01
.781
Gender
-.54/.59 .07
< .001*
Ethnicity
.65/1.92 .08
< .001*
PE1
.46/1.58 1.51
.762
PE3
-.22/.80 1.42
.876
PE4
.17/1.19 1.45
.906
PE5
.21/1.24 1.42
.881
PE6
-.31/.73 1.46
.833
PE7
-.49/.61 1.44
.736
PE8 -.52/.59 1.43 .709 *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed) **PE = prior education, 1= abroad, 2= havo (reference), 3 = hbo, 4 = mbo, 5 = other, 6 = entrance examination, 7 = vwo, 8 = wo *** Gender: 0 = male, 1 = female, Ethnicity: 0 = native, 1 = non-native
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 23
Table 7.1 Multiple Regression Analysis with Moderator and Control Variables, N = 4556
Predictor variable Criterion variable b/Beta SE t p 95%CI
Psych_fact EC .40/.01 2.65 .15 .879 [-4.79, 5.60]
Self-confidence
-.17/-.04 .36 -.48 .631 [-.89, .54]
Interaction
.01/.02 .08 .12 .903 [-.14, .16]
Intr_motivation
.001/.00 .07 .02 .983 [-.13, .13]
Self-discipline
.11/.02 .10 1.05 .292 [-.09, .30]
Gender
7.01/.15 .79 8.89 < .001* [5.46, 8.55]
Ethnicity
-9.79/-.21 .81 -12.05 < .001* [-11.39, -8.20]
PE1
-13.99/-.04 5.16 -2.71 .007* [-24.10, -3.87]
PE3
-14.83/-.07 3.56 -4.17 < .001* [-21.81, -7.85]
PE4
-6.29/-.14 .82 -7.69 < .001* [-7.90, -4.69]
PE5
-3.84/-.02 3.99 -.96 .336 [-11.66, 3.99]
PE6
-.56/-.003 2.95 -.19 .849 [-6.35, 5.22]
PE7
3.82/.03 2.06 1.86 .063 [-.21, 7.86]
PE8
-4.68/-.005 15.30 -.31 .760 [-34.68, 25.33]
Psych_fact GPA .08/.04 .19 .42 .672 [-.30, .46]
Self-confidence
-.01/-.05 .03 -.49 .623 [-.07, .04]
Interaction
.00/-
.003 .01 -.02 .983 [-.01, .01]
Intr_motivation
-.003/-.01 .01 -.58 .560 [-.01, .01]
Self-discipline
.01/.04 .01 1.67 .094 [-.002, .03]
Gender
.43/.13 .06 7.58 < .001* [.32, .55]
Ethnicity
-.83/-.24 .06 -13.92 < .001* [-.94, -.71]
PE1
-1.11/-.05 .40 -2.75 .006* [-1.90, -.32]
PE3
-.31/-.02 .31 -1.02 .308 [-.91, .29]
PE4
-.47/-.14 .06 -7.84 < .001* [-.58, -.35]
PE5
-.28/-.02 .29 -.98 .329 [-.85, .29]
PE6
-.003/.00 .21 -.01 .990 [-.42, .41]
PE7
.43/.05 .15 2.90 .004* [.14, .72]
PE8 1.02.02 1.09 .93 .352 [-1.13, 3.16] *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed) **PE = prior education, 1= abroad, 2= havo (reference), 3 = hbo, 4 = mbo, 5 = other, 6 = entrance examination, 7 = vwo, 8 = wo *** Gender: 0 = male, 1 = female, Ethnicity: 0 = native, 1 = non-native
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 24
Table 7.2 Multiple Log-linear Analysis with Moderator and Control Variables, N = 4556
Predictor variable Criterion variable b/Exp(B) SE χ2 p Exp(B)
Psych_fact Dropout 1.08 .898
Self-confidence
.02/1.02 .04 .21 .647 1.02
Interaction
-.002/1.00 .01 .08 .779 1.00
Intr_motivation
-.003/1.00 .01 .20 .659 1.00
Self-discipline
-.01/1.00 .01 .28 .600 1.00
Gender
-.52/.60 .08 47.32 < .001* .60
Ethnicity
.66/1.93 .08 72.28 < .001* 1.93
PE1
.44/1.55 1.51 .09 .771 1.55
PE3
-.25/.78 1.42 .03 .859 .78
PE4
.12/1.13 1.46 .01 .934 1.13
PE5
.18/1.20 1.42 .02 .899 1.20
PE6
-.34/.71 1.46 .06 .814 .71
PE7
-.51/.60 1.44 .13 .724 .60
PE8 -.57/.57 1.46 .16 .691 .57 *Significant at alpha level .05 (2-tailed) **PE = prior education, 1= abroad, 2= havo, 3 = hbo, 4 = mbo, 5 = other, 6 = entrance examination, 7 = vwo, 8 = wo *** Gender: 0 = male, 1 = female, Ethnicity: 0 = native, 1 = non-native
Hypotheses one and two have been rejected, because this was unexpected
based on the literature several additional analyses were performed. This research
looks further at possible relationships within certain groups. Hypotheses one and two
are tested again within the group of native students and non-native students. Besides
this, hypotheses one and two with study success as the criterion variable are tested
again within the group of dropouts and non-dropouts. Hypothesis one is still not
significant for the three criterion variables within the group of native and non-native
students. This is the same for the second hypothesis with dropout as the criterion
variable. The model of hypothesis two with ECs as the criterion variable is significant
for the native students, F(3, 2186) = 4.10, p = .007 and the variables explain 6% (R2 =
.006) of the variance in ECs. However, there is only a main effect of self-confidence
(p = .023). The model of hypothesis two with ECs as criterion variable is also
significant for the non-native students, F(3, 1308) = 3.39, p = .017 and the variables
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 25
explain 8% (R2 = .008) of the variance in ECs. Only the interaction variable is a
significant predictor of ECs (p = .034). Furthermore, the model of hypothesis two
with GPA as the criterion variable is significant for the native students, F(3, 2143) =
3.97, p = .008 and the variables explain 6% (R2 = .006) of the variance in GPA.
However, none of the variables are significant predictors. The model of hypothesis
one with ECs as the criterion variable is still not significant within the group of
dropouts and non-dropouts. On the other hand, the model of hypothesis two with ECs
as the criterion variable is significant for the non-dropout students, F(3, 1873) = 4.43,
p = .004 and the variables explain 7% (R2 = .007) of the variance in ECs. However,
only the variable psychological factors is a significant predictor (p = .026). The model
of hypothesis one with GPA as the criterion variable is significant for the dropout
students, F(1, 1995) = 5.33, p = .021 and psychological factors explain 3% (R2 = .003)
of the variance in GPA. Furthermore, the model of hypothesis two with GPA as the
criterion variable is significant for the non-dropout students, F(3, 1871) = 3.20, p =
.022 and the variables explain 5% (R2 = .005). Psychological factors (p = .029) and
the interaction variable (p = .039) are significant predictors in this model. The model
of hypothesis two with GPA as the criterion variable is also significant for the dropout
students, F(3, 1643) = 4.04, p = .007 and the variables explain 7% (R2 = .007) of the
variance in GPA. This is strange, because in the whole group there is no relationship
found, but for the two groups separately there is found a relationship. However, none
of the variables are significant predictors in this model. This further research has
brought forward some interesting things, but the explained variances of these analyses
are still low and some of the coefficients are not significant. So again the predictors in
the model together are better than a model without predictors, but the predictors do
not predict anything on themselves.
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 26
When checking for the assumptions of linear regression there is found
multicolliniairity and no homoscedasticity in the models with the moderator. This is
not a problem, because there are no linear relationships found. The model in Figure 3
shows that the relationships of hypotheses one and two are not found.
Figure 3. Model of hypotheses 1, 2 and 3 representing the results of hypotheses 1 and 2.
Discussion
In this study predictors of dropout and study success, expressed in ECs and GPA were
examined. Especially psychological factors and self-confidence were taken in
account. In conclusion, psychological factors are not related to dropout or study
success, expressed in ECs and GPA. Besides this, self-confidence did not moderate
the relationship between psychological factors and dropout and the relationship
between psychological factors and study success. After controlling for the variables
intrinsic motivation, self-discipline, gender, ethnicity and prior education the models
were significant. However, in the models with study success (ECs and GPA) only
gender, ethnicity and some types of prior education were significant predictors of
Dropout Psychological factors
Self-confidence
Study success
Gender Ethnicity Prior education Intrinsic motivation Self-discipline
H2
H3
H1
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 27
study success. Furthermore, in the model with dropout only gender and ethnicity were
significant predictors of dropout. The conclusion is that hypotheses one and two are
rejected. The variable psychological factors is only related to study success in the
model of hypothesis two within the group of non-dropout students. Besides this, there
is only an interaction effect for the second hypothesis with ECs as criterion variable
for the non-native students. And an interaction effect in the model of hypothesis two
with GPA as criterion variable for the non-dropout students.
The expectation that having obstruction from a psychological factor results in
an increase in the change of becoming a dropout and a decrease in study results,
expressed in ECs and GPA was not confirmed by the results. This is not in line with
previous research from Carsley, Heath, Gomez-Garibello and Mills (2016) that
suggested that psychiatric disorders, anxiety disorder, mood disorder, substance use
and conduct disorder are important predictors of educational attainment and dropout.
This might be because Carsley et al. (2016) used different tools to measure
psychological factors. Besides this, the results did not show that self-confidence
moderated the relationship between psychological factors and dropout and did not
moderate the relationship between psychological factors and study success. This is
not in line with the expectation that the student’s self-confidence weakens the
relationship between psychological factors and dropout and weakens the relationship
between psychological factors and study success. This might be, because little was
known about the moderating effect of self-confidence. This is also not in line with
earlier research that found that there is a small relationship between student’s self-
confidence and academic performance, whereby higher level’s of student’s self-
confidence results in higher levels of their academic performance (Tavani & Losh,
2003). The reason that Tavani and Losh (2003) did find a relationship might be
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 28
because they conducted their research among high school students instead of college
students. Furthermore, the expectation that the hypothesized relationships are
significant when there is controlled for the variables gender, prior education,
ethnicity, intrinsic motivation and self-discipline was confirmed. However, only
gender, ethnicity and some prior education are related to dropout and study success.
This finding is in line with research from Tinto (1975) and Rosenthal (1998) who
found that gender, ethnicity and prior education are related to dropout. Intrinsic
motivation and self-discipline were not related to dropout and study success. This
does not confirm earlier research from Cerasoli, Nicklin and Ford (2014) who
suggested that the population-level relation between intrinsic motivation and
performance is positive. That Cerasoli et al. (2014) did find a relationship might be
because they did not conduct their research among college students. This is also not in
line with earlier research that indicated that self-discipline predicted final grade more
robustly than IQ did and self-discipline also predicted which students would improve
their grades over the course of the school year, whereas IQ did not (Duckworth &
Seligman, 2005). The reason that Duckworth and Seligman (2005) did find a
relationship might be that they also did not conduct their research among college
students. Furthermore, this research also looked further and tested hypothesis one and
two again within certain groups. The results showed that hypothesis two with ECs as
the criterion variable is significant within the group of native and non-native students.
There was an interaction effect, but only within the group of non-native students.
Furthermore, psychological factors are related to study success within the group of
non-dropout students for the second hypothesis. For GPA there was also an
interaction effect within the group of non-dropout students for hypothesis two. This is
somewhat in line with earlier research, because earlier research did not focus in
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 29
relationships within certain groups (Carsley, Heath, Gomez-Garibello, & Mills, 2016;
Tavani, & Losh, 2003).
The theoretical reason was that this research could add evidence to earlier
research about predictors related to dropout and study success. And the practical
reason was that it is necessary to find predictors related to dropout, so Universities
and colleges know what they can do about the dropout rates. However this is not
applicable, because the results did not show that was expected. Not finding a
relationship between psychological factors and dropout and study success does not
have to be a bad thing. This could mean that students still could finish their studies,
while having obstruction from psychological factors. It is possible that the early
detection of psychological factors during the SKC has led to a better guidance.
Universities and colleges still do not know what they can do about the dropout rates
and need to look further other than psychological factors.
This research has a few limitations, what might have led to not finding a direct
nor indirect effect for psychological factors on dropout and study success. First, the
question about psychological factors consisted of only 1 item, namely ‘There are
psychological factors (fear of failure, addiction and depression) for me to consider in
this study’. So, it is not clear which factors may or may not be included. This can lead
to students who do not indicate that they have obstruction from psychological factors
while they actually have. It would have been better to have a questionnaire with a
clear description of psychological factors. Besides this, students can answer that they
do not have psychological factors when they actually have, because of social
desirability and think that it may influence their selection procedure for the study.
Second, the variable psychological factors is not normal distributed, this may have
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 30
caused that there is not found a relationship between psychological and dropout and
study success. Furthermore, students from a more masculine culture were maybe to
proud to say that they have obstruction from psychological factors what could lead to
less variance in psychological factors. However, the additional analyses did show that
there was an interaction effect within the group of non-native students for hypothesis
two with ECs as the criterion variable. Another limitation is that dropouts are not only
students who failed but are also students who go to a University after gaining their
propedeuse in college. Moreover, this research has also a strong point and that is that
this research had a large sample size what was not always the case in previous
research. So the Dutch population was better represented than when there is a small
sample size. It is possible that previous research also has not found the hypothesized
relationships and that these studies are therefore not publicized. Furthermore, this
research noted that 21% of the students had obstruction from psychological factors at
this moment. This is in line with earlier research that reported that almost 23% of the
Dutch students have psychological problems at this time (Schmidt & Simons, 2013).
However, the majority of the 21% students indicate that they have little obstruction
from psychological factors. In future research the limitations can be resolved by using
a proper questionnaire with a clear description of psychological factors and that it is
clear which factors are included. Social desirable answers are also being taken into
account by being clearer about the SKC not being a selection tool. Future research can
also focus on why some significant relationships were found within certain group, for
example the native versus non-native students and the dropout versus the non-dropout
students.
In conclusion, in this study no relationship between psychological factors and
dropout and study success, expressed in ECs and GPA was found. Besides this, self-
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 31
confidence did not moderate the relationship between psychological factors and
dropout and did not moderate the relationship between psychological factors and
study success. However, some of the control variables did affect these relationships.
For example, gender, ethnicity and some prior educations are related to dropout and
study success. This results in that there cannot be said to what extent study success
and dropout be predicted from psychological factors and self-confidence. By
performing this research again in a follow-up study, taking into account the
suggestions for future research there might be found a relationship between
psychological factors and dropout and study success. And find a moderating effect of
self-confidence. A follow-up study can also help Universities and colleges to find
predictors related to dropout, so that they can do something about the dropout rates.
THE INFLUENCE OF PSYCHOLOGICAL FACTORS ON STUDY SUCCESS 32
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