m axine m ajor o ctober 29, 2013. overview world perspective export control united states fy14...
TRANSCRIPT
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DRONE PROLIFERATIONMANUFACTURERS, BUYERS,
RESELLERS
MAXINE MAJOROCTOBER 29, 2013
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Overview World Perspective Export Control United States
FY14 Budget International Scene
IsraelIranChinaNorth KoreaTurkey
Issues and Ethics
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International
50+ countries have surveillance drones Many in-house R&D for armed drones $6.6 billion 2013 $11.4 billion 2022 Israel and the U.S. are largest drone
manufacturersU.S. most frequent userIsrael is top seller
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Export Control
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)“an informal and voluntary association of countries which share the goals of non-proliferation of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction, and which seek to coordinate national export licensing efforts aimed at preventing their proliferation.”Founded in 198734 countries including U.S., U.K., Canada,
France, Germany, Italy and Japan
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Export Control
MTCR (continued)“restrict the proliferation of missiles,
complete rocket systems, unmanned air vehicles, and related technology for those systems capable of carrying a 500 kilogram payload at least 300 kilometres, as well as systems intended for the delivery of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).”
Includes some rocket systems including space launch vehicles
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Export Control
MTCR (continued)Export control restrictions:
○ Rocket systems○ Unmanned air vehicle systems
“with capabilities exceeding a 300km/500kg range/payload threshold”
○ Production facilities○ Major sub-systems
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Export Control
MTCR (continued)Export licenses intended to build confidence
that technology will not be used for WMD delivery systems.
End users: ○ End user to specify exact purpose for drones○ Assurance not to be used for WMD○ Post-shipment inspections
Membership in MTCR does not “entitle” one country to freely trade systems and technology with another.
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United States
Drone Export$2-$3 billion (2005-2012)Largest client is U.S. Govt.
○ (May be due to tight export controls)Federal restrictions regulate the sale of
dronesMost drone sales prohibited due to the
Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR)
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United States
Unmanned Systems Cacaus“advocate for drones”Chaired by 2 congressmen (Rep. & Dem.)8 committee members from the House
Committee on AppropriationsMoney is given to the cacaus to influence
govt. support for research$2.3 million contributions since 2011
○ Much of this comes from drone manufacturers
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U.S. FY 2014 Budget http://appropriations.house.gov/uploadedfiles/hrpt-
113-hr-fy2014-defense.pdf
Procurement: $1,870,424,000 21 EA–18G Growler electronic attack aircraft $506,976,000 15 MQ–1 Gray Eagle UAVs $340,391,000 20 MQ–9 Reaper UAVs
R&D $2,867,319,000 Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency
(DARPA)
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U.S. Research & Development
EA–18G Growler Manned tactical jammer will replace Prowler Uses “INCANS Interference Cancellation system that will
allow voice communication while jamming enemy communications”
Growler eventually replaced by UAV
“Secretary of the Navy is directed to study the use of un-manned systems for organic airborne electronic attack to augment the Marine Corps current airborne electronic attack and electronic exploitation mission in whole or in part.”
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U.S. Exports Most drone sales to North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) allies U.K. Armed Reapers (2007) Italy Arming 6 Reaper drones
(2012) Iraq Oil protection South Korea 4 RQ-4 Global Hawks
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U.S. Exports
United Arab EmiratesInterested in $197 million Predator XPXP = “export”
Australia, Japan, SingaporeInterested in Global Hawks
TurkeyOutstanding request for armed ReapersLikely to be denied
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Israel
First country to develop military drone technologyPost 1973 Arab-Israeli war
Drones ½ military flight time Surveillance:
PalestineSyriaLebanon
Silent regarding weaponization
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Israel
World’s largest drone exporter$4.6 billion exported (2005-2012)10% of Israel military exports2001-2011 41% of all UAVs exported
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Israel
Exports24-49 countries including:
○ Canada, Australia, Russia, Nigeria, India, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Spain, Azerbaijan, Uganda, Ethiopia
Sold to China until 2005 arms deal with U.S.Sold technology for Orbiter 2M and Aerostar
drones to Azerbijan
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Israel
Israel Aerospace Industries“we exist because of the international market.”49 worldwide customers80% UAVs sold to foreign customersShort-term lease agreements (Canada,
Australia)Employs former soldiers
Elbit SystemsIsrael’s 2nd largest drone manufacturer
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Iran
RQ-170 SentinelDec 2011 – Downed U.S. RQ-170 Sentinel
reconnaissance drone ○ Crash vs. electronic warfare○ Kept for reverse engineering
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Iran
RQ-170 Sentinel (continued)Feb 2013 - Claim to have decoded video
recordingsOct 2013 – Iranian RQ-170
○ “undetectable to radars”○ Adapts heat production to surrounding
temperature
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Iran
Shahed 129 (Sept 2013)Iranian R&DPayload: 8 missiles or
bombs, or Sadid missilesRange: 1,700 km (can reach Israel)Duration: 24 hoursFor “Defensive purposes only”
Similar to Israel’s Hermes 450 and Hermes 900
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Iran
ScanEagleAnother downed drone (Dec 2012)Incident denied by U.S. Reverse engineered
○ Gave Russia copy as proof (Oct 2013)
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China
Internal Use:Arms sales 2007-2011 $11 billion
○ Political○ Profit
Developed to survey disputed islandsIntended to fly in “contested airspace”
http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf
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China
International MarketDevelop & market UAVs abroadLess expensiveLower quality
Arms manufacturers target foreign buyers
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China
Technology1950’s - Reverse-engineered drones
acquired from Soviet Union1960’s - Studied American drones in
Vietnam1990’s – Purchased 100 Harpy armed
drones from IsraelNorthwest Polytechnic University (CPU)
○ 40+ UAV variants developed○ 90% of drone development
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China
Technology (continued)Hacking U.S.
○ Linked to Chinese hacker unit “Comment Crew”
○ “gather domestic and international technology”○ “We can only envy their technology. Right
now, we’re learning from them.”
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China
ExportsWing Loong/Pterodactyl (Reaper)
○ Exported in 2011○ 2 laser-guided missiles○ “equal of the predator in endurance and flight
range” … but cheaper○ $1,000,000 USD
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China
Wing Loong sales:UAEUzbekistan5-6 Africa/Asia nations
Other ExportsPakistan CH-3/CH4 dronesEgypt “whole package air defense
system”
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North Korea
Internal drone programReconnaissance drones
○ Based off Chinese D-4 aircraft
Purchased from othersPchela-1T (1990’s)
○ Bought from Russia (1997)
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North Korea
MQM-107D StreakerPurchased from Syria (2012)U.S. developed in 1970’sCan be recovered, refueled and reused
○ DPRK intends for kamikaze missions
“anything that can fly at high velocity loaded with explosives on the hands of a bunch of psychotic military people is never good news.”
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Turkey
Used Israeli drones in Iraq surveillance TAI Anka (“Phoenix”)
Developed by Turkish Aerospace IndustriesEngine produced by German company
ThielertThielert purchased by China’s Avic (Sept
2013) Reconnaissance drone development to
start (Oct 2013)
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Others
Pakistan & India claim combat-capable dronesUnconfirmed
HizballahMay have used drones in Lebanon (2006)
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Countries with UAVsArgentina
Armenia
Australia
Austria
Belgium
Brazil
Bulgaria
Canada
Chile
China
Czech Republic
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
India
Indonesia
Iran
Israel
Italy
Japan
Jordan
Latvia
Malaysia
Mexico
Netherlands
New Zealand
Pakistan
Peru
Philippines
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Singapore
Slovenia
South Africa
South Korea
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Sweden
Taiwan
Thailand
Tunisia
Turkey
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
United Kingdom
Vietnam
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Issues & Ethics Non-weaponized drones still provide unmanned
aerial technology. Weaponized models can be developed from surveillance
models. Any customer is a potential reseller.
Weapons sold to allies can be sold to enemies. Old technology is still viable technology. A refusal to sell is encouragement to develop. China makes everything cheaper.
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Issues & Ethics “The U.S. has set a dangerous precedent with its
use of drones as it now sees the world as a global battlefield… Are other countries also going to claim that vast authority with this technology? I guess we'll have to see.”
Naureen Shah - Associate Director of the Counterterrorism and Human Rights Project (Columbia Law School)
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Issues & Ethics
The U.S. is not the primary exporter, but“we’re creating an international norm”
Things the U.S. is criticized for now will be shared by others soon.China’s plan to assassinate man in
Myanmar Airspace disputes
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Questions?
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References http://www.rferl.org/content/drones_who_makes_them_and_who_has_them/24469168.html http://appropriations.house.gov/ http://unmannedsystemscaucus.mckeon.house.gov/ http://www.boeing.com/boeing/bds/phantom_works/phantom_eye.page http://www.mtcr.info/english/index.html http://www.gallowayfoundation.org/category-drones-proliferation-and-technology/ http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4438796,00.html http://www.ynetnews.com/articles/0,7340,L-4433889,00.html http://www.presstv.ir/detail/2013/02/07/287743/iran-releases-decoded-video-from-us-drone/ http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21373353 http://en.trend.az/news/society/2205442.html http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/chinas-buying-of-german-firm-risk-for-turkish-uav.aspx?
pageID=238&nID=54563&NewsCatID=483 http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/180677.pdf http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/139405/andrew-erickson-and-austin-strange/china-has-drones-now-what http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/121114/china-unveils-new-drones-developing-
economies http://gizmodo.com/5882687/north-koreas-newest-killer-drone-comes-from-the-usa english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2012/02/06/2012020601274.html http://www.atimes.com/koreas/CD03Dg01.html http://project2049.net/documents/uav_easton_hsiao.pdf http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052702303395604577432323658176792 http://www.globalresearch.ca/drone-proliferation-in-europe-domestic-surveillance-and-unmanned-warfare/5335752 http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomacy-defense/israel-is-world-s-largest-exporter-of-drones-study-finds.premium-
1.524771
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References (continued) http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB10001424052970204844504577098583174059746 http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/06/26/AR2005062600544.html http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/world/story/2012-05-20/iraq-oil-drones/55099590/1 http://www.kpbs.org/news/2012/jul/05/drone-makers-friends-washington/ http://defensesystems.com/articles/2012/07/25/agg-syria-drones.aspx http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-12-24/south-korea-to-buy-1-2-billion-in-drones-under-u-s-plan.html http://articles.washingtonpost.com/2012-12-25/world/36016122_1_spy-drones-global-hawk-spread-of-
ballistic-missiles http://articles.latimes.com/2013/feb/22/business/la-fi-predator-drone-sale-20130223 http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/11/companies-making-drones_n_2849569.html http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-korea-north-drones-idUSBRE92J0JI20130320 http://i-hls.com/2013/05/israel-as-unmanned-air-systems-super-power/ http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/05/israel-world-largest-drone-exporter_n_3392034.html http://www.china.org.cn/business/2013-06/20/content_29174460.htm http://www.uasvision.com/2013/06/26/china-claims-six-potential-customers-for-wing-loong/ http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2013/sep/9/japan-dispatches-jets-drone-flies-disputed-islands/ http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/world/asia/hacking-us-secrets-china-pushes-for-drones.html?_r=0 http://www.nytimes.com/2013/09/21/world/asia/hacking-us-secrets-china-pushes-for-drones.html?
pagewanted=1&_r=0 http://www.upi.com/Business_News/Security-Industry/2013/10/07/Iran-claims-breakthrough-with-Israeli-
lookalike-combat-UAVs/UPI-45741381165461/ http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/oct/21/iran-russia-us-scaneagle-spy-drone-production-capture http://www.algemeiner.com/2013/10/23/analysis-turkeys-fruitless-quest-for-armed-drones/