m anufacturing purchasing m anage rs inde x (p m...

Developing Trends: October 2012

Overview

Developing Trends was prepared by the Development Economics Prospects Group (DECPG) of the World Bank. The team is coordinated by Allen

Dennis (Overview and Trade), and is comprised of Theo Van Janse Rensburg (High-Income) Cristina Savescu (Industrial Production, Business

sentiment) Ekaterine Vashakmadze (Inflation), John Baffes (Commodities), Dilek Aykut and Eung Ju Kim (Finance), Sanket Mohapatra (Exchange

rate) and Adil Islam (Annex). The report was prepared under the guidance of Andrew Burns.

This note reflects the views of the team, but is not formally cleared by the World Bank Group.

After months of decelerating economic activity following earlier turbulence in financial markets in the second quarter, economic activity is picking up once again. Global industrial production rose at a season-ally adjusted annualized pace of 0.9 percent in the three months through August 2012 (up from zero growth in June). Activity remains strongest in developing countries, with a 5.4 percent annualized pace of growth during the same period (4.5 percent excluding China). Among high-income countries, industrial output expansion was positive for both the Euro Area (0.4 percent) and the United States (1.6 percent). In contrast, industrial output in Japan contracted at a more than 11% annualized rate in the 3 months end-ing August 2012, reflecting weaker domestic spending, and exports — notably to China.

The recent pick-up in global economic activity is likely to be sustained into the fourth quarter. The Sep-tember Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) releases are broadly consistent with a picture of a moderate up-tick in global economic activity. Indeed, the World Bank’s global PMI climbed to 52.5 (from 50.9 in Au-gust) - its highest level in six months. Further, with the global index of new orders expanding after months of contraction, the strengthening of activity is likely to persist. However, among high-income countries business sentiment is stronger in the US, where unemployment fell to 7.8% in September (the lowest level

in four years), consumer confidence rose to a five-year high in October, and the housing market has be-gun recovering. In contrast, business confidence in the Euro Area remains weak due to ongoing fiscal con-solidation, rising unemployment. In Japan, the PMI stayed around 47.9 for the third successive month through September, suggesting that the weakness in Japan’s export-dependent industrial sector could persist into the fourth quarter, particularly if the drop in demand from China continues.

Unlike industrial production, where signs of a pick-up in real side activity are apparent, the pick-up in globaI trade appears to be lagging behind. Indeed, in the three months through August import demand was still contracting in Germany (-16.8%, 3m/3m saar), Japan (-6.0%) and in the United States (-6.7%). However, given that recoveries in global trade tend to lag behind that of industrial production, if the nas-cent recovery in industrial production observed is sustained, global trade will rebound by the fourth quar-

-11.0

-6.0

-1.0

4.0

9.0

14.0

2010M12 2011M04 2011M08 2011M12 2012M04 2012M08

Global Developing High-income

(Industrial production volume, %ch 3m/3m saar)

After slowing down for several months, economic activity begins to pick up again

Source: World Bank DEC Prospects and Datastream

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12

Euro AreaUSAJapanGermanyItaly50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)Diffusion Index

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Markit Last updated: Oct. 12, 2012

October 17, 2012

Developing Trends: October 2012

ter. This possibility is reinforced by the strong uptick in the Baltic Dry Index – a daily index of shipping costs for primary commodities – which has increased by some 40% between mid- September and mid-October, reversing a period of consistent decline since early July. However, even if global trade does pick-up in the fourth quarter, the up-tick could be tempered by the ongoing political tensions between China and Japan over disputed territory. Already these disputes have led to a sharp drop in Japanese auto and parts exports to China and sales of Japanese cars in China. If it persists, it may start to impinge on the exports of other coun-tries in the East Asia region, whose firms are part of the Japanese auto production networks.

In line with the recent uptick in economic activity, base metal prices strengthened in September, after several months of decline. The World Bank’s metal and minerals index rose 5.8 percent in September, with strong increases the prices of copper (7.6%), aluminum (11.9%), zinc (10.5%) and nickel (9.9%). Some of the pick-up in base metal prices may be attributed to speculative investments following recent monetary stimulus measures in G3 economies. However, the broad nature of the price increases (i.e. not limited to only precious minerals), coupled with the increase in the Baltic Dry Index (which reflects only real cargo shipment costs) suggest the uptick more likely reflects a strengthening in economic activity. In contrast to metal prices, the dollar price of internationally-traded oil and food prices, which rose in July and August due to supply-side shocks, were relatively stable in September. The World Bank crude oil index was up 1% in September, and the food price index was down 1.1%. During the first few weeks of October, supply-side concerns have driven up both oil and food prices, whereas some of the earlier gains for metals have been pared down.

The recent easing in financial market tensions continues to be sustained through mid-October. Financial mar-ket conditions have continued to show signs of a durable stabilization, with the gains observed through Au-gust sustained through September. Unlike previous policy interventions where gains to borrowing costs and spreads fizzled out over a short period, credit default rates for both developing and high-spread Euro Area countries have stayed at close to 2010 levels since late July. Spreads for Spain and Italy have dropped 287 bps and 265 bps, respectively. Similarly 10-year sovereign bond yields have fallen to around 5% for Italy. In Spain they have gone up slightly in the wake of S&P rating downgrade, but remain below 6%. Investors remain cau-tious due the uncertainty over whether or when the Spanish government may ask for a bailout, which is a pre-requisite for the European Central Bank bond-buying program.

Easier financial market conditions contributed to the recovery in capital flows to developing countries and even saw several countries issue or plan to issue bonds for the first time. Reduced uncertainty in financial markets and increased liquidity contributed to a rebound in gross capital flows to developing countries. Over-all flows rose by $40 billion in September, with bond flows posting a record high of $32 billion. An unprece-dented investor demand allowed frontier-market borrowers to tap the international bond market with Zam-bia issuing an inaugural international bond, successfully raising $750 million. Bank lending also bounced back from a weak August, with lending activity increasing to Latin America region in particular. Though compre-hensive foreign direct investment (FDI) data is available only through Q2, partial data suggest that FDI flows picked-up in Q3.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

2012M01 2012M03 2012M05 2012M07 2012M09

Aluminum

Copper

Nickel

Zinc

World Bank metal price index

Industrial metal prices are also picking up as global economic activity strengthens

(real metal price index, April 2012=100)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12

Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flow s to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Oct. 17, 2012

2

October 17, 2012

High income (1)

US fiscal cliff presents major downside risk

Automatic tax hikes and spending cuts are set to take effect starting in 2013 if the US Congress fails to agree on an alternative debt-reduction plan.

The US’s Congressional Budget Office forecasts that the US fiscal deficit will decline 3.3 percent-age points to 4% of GDP in 2013.

In the event the full “fiscal cliff” materializes we estimate US growth would be 2.2 percentage points lower in 2013 at -0.2%. This compares to a baseline growth forecast of 2% with a 30% “fiscal cliff” included).

September PMI suggest that the pace of contrac-tion has eased somewhat

Activity in the Euro Area continues to be weighed down by fiscal consolidation, rising unemploy-ment, and weak consumer sentiment. Nonethe-less, Euro Area manufacturing PMI has been hold-ing steady at lower levels for the past 6 months.

The turnaround in Germany and Italy’s PMIs dur-ing September has been particularly encourag-ing, and may be the first signs of the Euro Area confidence and output starting to recover.

Manufacturing sentiment in the US and Japan during September remained largely unchanged (marginally down for the US, and marginally up for Japan). Going forward, the easing of financial market tensions, and increased access to credit (e.g. G3 monetary stimulus) should translate into a pick-up in Q4 sentiment and real-side activity.

Labor markets remains soft in high-income coun-tries

Labor markets remain particularly weak in the Euro Area, with unemployment trending higher for the past 35 months to reach 11.3% in August.

Germany’s labor market has also deteriorated recently, with only 4,000 jobs created in Septem-ber, although at 5.5% the unemployment rate remains less than half that of the Euro Area.

In the U.S. the unemployment rate inched down to 7.8% in September, following revisions to ear-lier payroll numbers. Further, in October both weekly jobless claims and consumer confidence levels have improved to their most favorable levels in five years.

The looming US “fiscal cliff” remains one of the major downside risks to growth in high-income countries. The timing of the “US fiscal cliff” could be particularly unfortunate as the latest Purchasing Manager Index (PMI) data suggest that the pace of contraction is slowing and that pick-up in activity towards the 4th quarter can be expected. Nonetheless, labor markets in high income countries remains soft.

40

44

48

52

56

60

64

Jan-10Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12




Table 1: US growth under various fiscal cliff scenarios

US growth with no fiscal cliff 2.9%

US growth with 30% of fiscal cliff

2.0%

US growth with 100% fiscal cliff -0.2%

Source: Own calculations

3

October 17, 2012

High income (2)

G3 equity markets have retreated slightly from the September rally; U.S Treasuries and German bunds have performed well thus far this month.

Benchmark G-3 bourses have retreated slightly from September stock rally, with the S&P 500, TOPIX and DAX all losing more than 2.5% from last month’s peaks.

Both U.S. Treasuries and German Bunds per-formed well in October, as lingering worries over global growth and the European debt crisis drove investors to move into safe-haven assets.

Credit default swap (CDS) rates for high-beta European economies have tightened recently, but they remain at elevated levels.

CDS rates for Spain are currently at 360 basis points, down 287 basis points from historic high levels reached in July. But investors remain cau-tious due to the uncertainty over whether the Spanish government may ask for a bailout.

Spreads for Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Belgium have also eased between 265 and 442 basis points since their July peaks.

Borrowing costs for Spain and Italy remain rela-tively low amid growing investor confidence to-wards troubled European government debt.

Since late July, the benchmark Spanish 10-year note yield has declined from a historic high of 7.6% and has been mostly below 6%.

Despite S&P downgrade on October 10, Spanish borrowing costs have remain lower amid pro-spects of the European Central Bank bond-buying.

The Italian 10-year yield also remain lower and is currently at jus below 5%.

Notably, Greek 10-year bond yield fell to around 17.5% in mid-October, the lowest level since the country’s debt restructuring deal in March.

G3 stocks have somewhat retreated from the September rally, but safe-haven government bonds advanced at

the expense of equities. The cost of insuring high-beta European government debt has eased, but the uncer-

tainty over Spanish bailout request keep investors cautious. Spain and Italy’s borrowing costs have fallen

sharply from July peaks. Notably, Greek borrowing costs has dropped to the lowest level since March 2012.

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

2,000

Jan-10Apr-10Jul-10 Oct-10Jan-11Apr-11Jul-11 Oct-11Jan-12Apr-12Jul-12 Oct-12

PortugalIrelandSpainItalyBelgium

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12

S&P-500 (USA)DAX (Germany)Topix (Japan)

G-3 equity marketsIndex, January 1 2010=100

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Datastream Last updated: Sep. 24, 2012

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

Italy

Spain

Yields (percent)Yields (percent)

Daily yields on 10-year government bonds since Jan 1 2011

Source: World Bank Group and Bloomberg.

4

October 17, 2012

Industrial Activity

Industrial production (IP) in high-income countries contracted in the three-months to August.

High-income IP contracted at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annualized (saar) pace in the three months to August, though performance was mixed across countries. Euro Area IP surprised on the upside, up 0.6% m/m in August, bringing the July-August average up 4% annualized over Q2.

US IP August data point to continued deteriora-tion in momentum, which has eased to 1.6% in the three months to August, down from 2.6% in Q2.

IP contracted –11.3% Japan in the three-month to August, on lower domestic demand for autos and weak exports to Euro area and China. Mean-while the pace of contraction in other high-income countries deteriorated to 3.2%.

Industrial production momentum improved in most developing regions….

China’s IP growth improved only moderately, ex-panding at a 6.3% annualized pace in the three months to August up from a dismal 3.2% pace in Q2. High inventory levels could weigh on growth in coming months, but front-loading of spending on infrastructure should support growth going forward.

Meanwhile the pace of contraction in IP in East Asia excluding China and Thailand eased to 3%in the three-moths to August down from 8.5% ar in the three month to July.

In Latin America, Mexico’s IP declined 0.8% m/m in August, as weak IP performance in the U.S. is starting to take a toll. There are however positive news coming out of Brazil, with IP expanding for a third consecutive month in August as protec-tionist measures and policy stimuli are supporting the industrial sector.

...including in Europe and Central Asia and South Asia

In Europe and Central Asia IP performance re-lapsed, with output contracting -0.3% ar in the three moths to August.

The rate of contraction in South Asia’s IP eased to 2.9% in August (3mma, saar) reflecting a more moderate contraction rate of 2.4% in India’s IP.

Data for Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East has a considerable lag. South Africa which reports more recent data continues to show stabilization in IP (0.3% saar in the three months to July).

Industrial activity appears to have bottomed out in Q3, in particular in developing countries and the Euro ar-ea, but September business sentiment surveys albeit improving marginally point to a weak performance in Q3. High global inventory levels and weak final demand suggest that growth in the third quarter will be tepid at best, especially in the Euro Area and China. IP continues to moderate in the U.S. and disappoint in Japan . However inventory dynamics will be more favorable for growth in the coming months in the G3 and the East Asian tech exporters if final demand hold.

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

Euro AreaUSAJapanOther high income

High-income industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12

Middle East & North AfricaIndiaSouth Asia excl. IndiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-20

-10

0

10

20

30


ChinaEAP excl. China & ThailandEurope & Central AsiaMexicoLAC excl. Mexico

EAP, ECA & LAC industrial productionPercent change, 3m/3m saar


5

October 17, 2012

Business Sentiment

Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s survey indices (PMI) continue to point to stabilizing but weak per-formance in the manufacturing sector.

Global business sentiment in manufacturing im-proved in September, with the Markit manufac-turing PMI advancing by 0.8 points, as new orders index rose 1.4 points and inventories index de-clined 0.6 points.

In the U.S. the ISM manufacturing index rose to 51.5 the first increase since May, up from 49.6 in August, 49.8 in July and 49.7 in June.

Business sentiment also improved in the Euro Ar-ea, with the Markit PMI up 1 point to 46.1 in Sep-tember, as sentiment improved markedly in Ger-many (3 points to 47.4) , and despite a steep worsening in sentiment in France (down 3.3 points to a depressed 42.7).

PMI declines in East Asia and Pacific, dragged down by a marked decline in China.

PMI indices remained below 50 in East Asia and Pacific since November 2011 over concerns about weaker-than-expected economic perfor-mance.

China’s official PMI rose to 49.8 in September (Markit 47.9) from 49.2 in August and there are indications that there has been progress in de-stocking. Export orders rose to 48.8 from 46.6 and new orders rose to 49.8 from 48.7

Business sentiment remains well below its year-ago

level in other regions.

In LAC, PMI improved marginally. Brazil’s PMI continued to improve, rising an additional 0.5 points to 49.8, while Mexico’s PMI inched down to 54.4, remaining the highest among the devel-oping countries included in the survey.

In South Africa the PMI declined 4 points to 46.2, in part due to the effect of the strikes in the min-ing sector.

Business sentiment improved marginally in September as tensions in the Euro Area have been easing . Sep-tember reading remain however at low levels suggesting that any improvement in IP performance this quarter will be very modest. A pick-up in global retail sales recently has helped inventory adjustments and lays the foundation for stronger industrial sector performance in the final months of the year if final demand does not weaken.

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

Jan-10 May-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)

Diffusion Index


44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60


BrazilChinaIndiaSouth AfricaTurkey50-line

Manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI)

Diffusion Index


40

44

48

52

56

60

64





6

October 17, 2012

International Trade (1)

The contraction global trade which commenced in Q2 continues to persist through the third quar-ter.

Buffeted by headwinds related to the Euro Area crisis and a slowdown in economic activity in some of the larger developing countries, the con-traction in global trade that began in May (-0.3%, 3m/3m saar) deepened in June (-5.4%) and con-tinued into July (-4.5%).

Among high-income countries where August data is available, import demand is weakest in the Euro Area facing record levels of unemployment. Strengthening economic activity in the United States should lead to a pick up in import demand whereas the weak Japan import demand could persist due to a slowdown of activity. Japan’s in-dustrial output fell at 11.3% in September.

Nonetheless, global trade is expected to pick-up by the fourth quarter.

However, given that recoveries in global trade tend to lag behind that of industrial production, if the nascent recovery in industrial production ob-served is sustained, global trade is expected to rebound by the fourth quarter. This possibility is reinforced by the strong uptick in the Baltic Dry Index – a daily index of shipping costs for primary commodities – which has increased by some 40% between mid- September and mid-October, reversing a period of consistent decline since ear-ly July.

Further, the recent uptick in base metal prices (copper, zinc, nickel, aluminum) should bode well for the developing country metal exporters.

Trade developments among the larger developing countries is mixed.

The slowdown in import demand among develop-ing countries reflects not only spillovers from the Euro Area crisis but also weakness in their domes-tic demand. Indeed, imports contracted for the second consecutive month in July for the BRIC economies, albeit at a weaker pace.

While import demand contracted in most large developing countries in July, import demand re-bounded moderately in China as well as in South Africa. However, in the latter the pick-up is likely to be short-lived due to recent labor unrest.

Recent loosening of interest rates and announced fiscal stimulus measures (Brazil, China) should help provide support to domestic economic ac-tivity and that of their trading partners.

The contraction in global trade which began in Q2 has persisted through Q3, albeit at a weaker pace. None-theless, with trends in global trade lagging behind industrial production, the recent strengthening of industri-al production portends a pick-up in global trade by the fourth quarter. The strong uptick in Baltic Dry Index since mid-September also provides further support to an expected rebound in global trade by quarter four.

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40


WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global Import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaSouth Africa

Selected country import v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1,800

Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12

The recent pick up in the Baltic Dry Index signals global trade is likely to pick-up by the fourth quarter

Baltic Dry Index


7

October 17, 2012

International Trade (2)

Among high income countries, exports are weak-est in the Euro Area and Japan.

With high-income Europe trading predominantly among each other and with the ongoing debt crisis impacting real side activity via rising unem-ployment, and weak consumer and business sen-timent export activity in the Euro Area the con-traction in exports which started in April has per-sisted for four consecutive months, albeit at a slower pace in July.

In Japan, sub-par growth from its some most im-portant export markets (China and the EU) and a stronger yen have coalesced to plummet export growth (26% decline in both July and August). The recent island dispute with China is only likely to accentuate the situation as Chinese demand for Japanese cars took a hit.

Export growth momentum falls in East Asia but picks up in Latin America and South Asia.

Consistent with the general slowdown in the global economy up until July, export growth among developing countries, though still positive decelerated to 8% (5.5% excluding China).

Though among developing regions, the strongest growth was in East Asia, the recent weak Chinese industrial and Japanese production is likely dampening exports in the region. Indeed, in East Asia export growth fell by some 14 percentage points in July, in contrast to both Latin American and the Caribbean and the South Asia region where export momentum picked up in July.

Developments among the major developing countries diverge.

While exports for China, Turkey, Russia, South Africa and India continued expanding through July, exports in Brazil contracted. Nonetheless the recent pick up in commodity prices should provide some support to exports in Brazil as well as other developing country metal and mineral exporters.

South Africa, whose exports were up by 23% in July, may however not benefit from the Septem-ber uptick in commodity prices as recent labor unrest in local platinum and gold mines have most likely significantly curtailed mining output and exports in the third quarter.

The recent slump in global trade has impacted countries differently. Among high income countries, data through August shows both the Euro Area and Japan to be the hardest hit. Although a pick up in global trade is expected the situation in Japan remains tenuous, as related to its Island dispute with China, exports (especially auto and parts) to its largest market has dropped significantly. Among large developing countries exports for China, Turkey and Russia are strongest, but remain weak in Brazil.

-10

0

10

20

30

40


WorldHigh incomeDevelopingDeveloping excl. China

Global export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-40

0

40

80

120

160


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Regional export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


-40

0

40

80

120

160


BrazilChinaEgyptIndiaSouth Afr ica

Selected country export v olumesPercent change, 3m/3m saar


8

October 17, 2012

Commodities (1)

Oil prices strengthen on supply concerns.

Crude oil prices fell towards the end of Septem-ber as news on weakening economic growth dominated the markets. Brent, however, gained due to fears that the current conflict between Syria and Turkey prompted markets to remain edgy because of potential threat to disrupt oil supplies. These concerns come on top of limited OPEC spare production capacity, currently esti-mated at 2.5 million b/d.

The gap between Brent (the international mark-er) and WTI (US domestic price) has averaged a record 24% (or US$22/bbl) as the Central US markets remain well supplied. The Brent premium will last until 2015 when the construction of the pipelines that will take surplus Canadian and US crudes to Gulf refineries will be completed.

Following a strong September, metal prices weaken on concerns about the global economy and China’s slow-down.

The World Bank base metal index gained almost 6% in September; however, prices of most metals began weakening in early October. During Octo-ber 2-12, zinc, lead, and nickel declined 8.3%, 7.2%, and 7.5%. Aluminum and copper prices declined as well.

Questions about Chinese demand has put down-ward pressures on metal prices in October. How-ever, on the physical side, stocks at the London’s Metal Exchange have declined for most metals suggesting a pick-up in demand.

Precious metal prices stabilize, albeit at historically high levels.

The precious metals index gained 9% in Septem-ber; gold prices exceeded US$ 1,780/toz on Oc-tober 1st and have been fluctuating around that level since then. Silver and platinum prices have made similar gains as well.

The strength in precious metal prices has been supported by demand from institutional inves-tors, continuing problems in the Middle East (and likely disruptions in oil supplies), and the debt problems in Europe. Additionally, the platinum industry has been plagued by ongoing labor dis-putes (that began August) in several South Afri-can mines.

Crude oil prices continued their volatility throughout October responding to demand weakness due to lower

global growth estimates and to supply concerns by the ongoing geopolitical issues in the Middle East. In re-

sponse to global weakness, metal prices reversed their upward trend as well. Precious metals prices stabilized,

albeit at very high levels.

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May-12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

BrentWest-Texas Intermediate

Oil pricesUSD per barrel


80

90

100

110

120

130

140


TinCopperNickelAluminium

Metal and Mineral pricesIndex, January 2012=100


1,300

1,400

1,500

1,600

1,700

1,800

1,900

2,600

2,800

3,000

3,200

3,400

3,600

3,800

Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12 May -12 Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oc t-12

GoldPlatinumSilver (right axis)

US cents/troy ouncePrecious Metal Prices

US$/troy ounce

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and Handy&Harman Last updated: Oct. 17, 2012

9

October 17, 2012

Commodities (2)

Global maize and wheat markets still very tight.

In its October 11, 2012 update, the USDA down-graded even further its assessment for end-of-season stocks for maize to 117.2 million tons, 5.7% down from its September update and 16% lower than last season. It expects global demand to exceed production by 14 million tons and stocks to remain unchanged. The global stock-to-use ratio currently stands at 13.7%, the lowest since 1972.

The global wheat market is tight as well with end-of-season stocks expected at 73 million tons, 2.1% down from last month but almost 13% lower than last season. The tightness in the wheat mar-ket reflects increased demand. The stock-to-use ratio for wheat is expected at 25.3%, not as tight as maize but low by historical standards.

Grain prices moved upwards following the re-lease of the October assessment.

Maize prices declined 3.4% in September while wheat prices gained 1.1%. Rice prices moved very little (-0.7% down). Following the assessment however, both maize and wheat prices moved up, 5% and 2%, respectively. However, both prices are still 9% lower than their mid-July records.

Separately, rubber prices gained some 9% in Sep-tember, driven by strong import demand by Chi-na and Thai’s government decision to spend 30 billion baht to buy rubber in order to support do-mestic rubber prices. Cotton prices, on the other hand, remain weak as the cotton market is well-supplied; end-of-season stocks expected to reach 15.7 million tons, up 14.7 from last season and 68% higher than 2010/11.

Oilseed and edible oil weaken following news of a good South American crop.

Most oilseeds and edible oil prices have been declining. Since the beginning of September, soybean and soybean oil prices have declined 14% and 10% respectively. Other edible oil prices, notably palm oil (produced mostly by Malaysia and Indonesia) have declined as well.

In its October update, USDA expects global soy-bean production to actually exceed consump-tion by 6 million tons. Supplies from Brazil and Argentina—key soybean suppliers apart from the US—are expected to increase almost 20% from a year ago. On the other hand, biodiesel production in Europe loses momentum as politi-cians are questioning its environmental benefits.

The tightness in grain markets persists; in its October 11 update, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA)

estimated that global wheat and maize demand will exceed production by 25 and 14 and million tons, respec-

tively—maize stocks remain unchanged while wheat stocks are expected to improve. The sentiment in oilseed

and edible oil markets continues to improve on good news from South American soybean crops.

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

340

360


WheatMaize

Grain pricesUS$ per metric tonne

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: Oct. 17, 2012

300

350

400

450

500

550

600

650

700

900

1,000

1,100

1,200

1,300

1,400


Soybeans [Left]Soybean oil [Right]

Edible oil and oilseed pricesUS$ per metric ton

Source: World Bank Prospects Group and CME Last updated: Oct. 17, 2012

US$ per metric ton

Source: US Department of Agriculture

198.6

188.1

177.2

188.1

160

170

180

190

200

210

2011/12 2012/13

(MAY)

2012/13

(SEP)

2012/13

(OCT)

Maize Wheat

Maize and wheat markets still tight(end-of-season-stocks, million tons)

139.6

152.3

123.3 124.0

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

2011/12 2012/13

(MAY)

2012/13

(SEP)

2012/13

(OCT)

10

October 17, 2012

International Finance (1)

0

100

200

300

400

500


East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & CaribbeanMiddle-East & North Africa

Daily CDS Sov ereign rates since Jan 1 2011Basis points


70

80

90

100

110

120


MSCI AsiaMSCI EEMSCI LAC

MSCI Regional Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110


Emerg ing MarketsDeveloped Markets

MSCI Equity IndicesIndex (Jan 1, 2011 = 100)


Developing country CDS spreads tightened fur-ther in October as risk-aversion continued to ease.

Perceived credit risk for developing–country sov-ereign debt has declined by about 42 basis points on average since the beginning of September amid positive market sentiment toward EM debt.

They are now 71 basis points lower than year-earlier levels.

Emerging Europe and high-beta Latin America countries (such as Romania, Bulgaria, and Argen-tina) have posted the largest tightening in their CDS spreads since September.

Despite the reduced risk-aversion, equity mar-kets remained on hold in October ahead of the developments in Euro Area debt resolution and amid on-going concerns over global growth. The global stock markets moved slightly down in

October as uncertainty over global growth and European debt crisis continued to weigh on mar-ket sentiment.

Mature market stocks dropped 1% in October, while developing country shares lost just 0.5%, following 4% gains in September.

Stock markets are likely to remain weak in the near-term amid the uncertainty related to Euro Area debt problem resolution; dealing with the American “fiscal cliff”, and a deepening concern over slowing growth in China.

Stock markets across developing regions posted little movement in October.

The general stability was widespread among de-veloping country stock markets in October, with Latin American shares outperformed other re-gions.

Both Latin America and Emerging Europe region-al indices increased by 0.9% and 0.5% in October, respectively, Emerging Asia stock markets lost 1.2% of its value in October.

The BRICs shares gained 0.6% this month, with Chinese benchmark index posting a 0.9% gain.

Market sentiment has turned to a more cautious tone in October following last month rally. While perceived

credit risk for developing-country debt continued to ease, global equity markets remained on-hold in Octo-

ber despite the on-going quantitative easing in the United States. Emerging Asia was the only developing

region that posted a loss in October with Latin American and Emerging European market increased slightly.

11

October 17, 2012


Flows to developing-country bond and equity funds have remained robust in October.

Emerging-market bond funds posted inflows of about $1.7 billion in the week ended October 10, hitting a 35-week high.

Meanwhile, investors put about $828 million into developing-country equity funds during the same period, down from about $1.3 billion the previous week.

So far in 2012, bond funds have outperformed equity funds, attracting year-to-date inflows of $31 billion ($8 billion over the equity-fund total).

Capital flows were robust in September, with all segments of the market posting sharp gains. Gross capital flows to developing countries rose

by $40 billion to about $69 billion in September, posting the highest monthly volume since Sep-tember 2010.

All segments of the markets posted significant gains in the month, with bond issuance reaching a record high.

Nevertheless, year-to-date flows stand 5% below year-earlier levels, with bank lending and equity flows falling by about 32% and 9%, respectively. But bond issuance volume is up 27%.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Bond IssuanceEquity IssuanceSyndicated Bank Loans

Gross Capital Flow s to Dev eloping Regions$ bil l ion, 3-mon. m.a.


Foreign direct investment (FDI) flows, which tend to react to market conditions with a time-lag, fell during

the second quarter of this year following the increased uncertainty in late 2011. Despite the likely pick-up in

Q3, FDI flows are expected to decline slightly in 2012. The pick up in flows to emerging market assets in Q3

was evident as gross capital flows to developing countries surged in September.

-8,000

-6,000

-4,000

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

Jan

-10

Ma

r-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Jul-

10

Sep

-10

No

v-1

0

Jan

-11

Ma

r-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Jul-

11

Sep

-11

No

v-1

1

Jan

-12

Ma

r-1

2

Ma

y-1

2

Jul-

12

Sep

-12

Inflows to EM bond funds Inflows to EM equity funds

Weekly flows to developing-country equity and bond funds

$ million

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2009Q1 2009Q4 2010Q3 2011Q2 2012Q1

FDI inflows in selected developing countries

$ billion

Source: Development Prospects Group estimates based on data from central banks. Note: Countries include Brazil, Bulgaria, Chile, China, India,

Indonesia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Malaysia, Mexico, Peru, Romania,

FDI inflows to developing countries declined in 2012 Q2 due to Euro Area uncertainty.

FDI inflows to developing countries declined by 13% (y/y) during 2012Q2, marking the largest drop since 2009.

While FDI fell sharply in India and South Africa and several Eastern European countries such as Russia, Bulgaria and Serbia, flows actually strengthened in Latin American countries.

With the easing of financial market tensions in Q3, FDI flows are likely to have picked-up in some developing countries. Indeed, available Q3 data shows a rebound in FDI flows to Russia, sup-ported in part by new privatization.

12

October 17, 2012


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



International Equity Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14



International Bond Issuance$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12

East Asia & PacificEurope & Central AsiaLat in America & CaribbeanMiddle East & North AfricaSouth AsiaSub-Saharan Africa

Source: Deallogic, DEC Prospects Group Last updated: Sep. 18, 2012

Bank Lending$ billion (3-mon. m.a.)

September equity flows were up sharply on ac-count of Russia and Mexico.

Equity placements (a combination of IPOs and follow-on issuance) more than doubled to about $17 billion in September, the highest level since December 2010.

The surge was due mostly to a couple of mega deals from Russian and Mexican banks.

Mexico’s Grupo Finaciero and Russia’s Sberbank raised $4 billion and $5.2 billion, respectively,

However, year-to-date equity flows are still down about 9% from a year earlier, with 32% and 27% declines in LAC and ECA region.

Bond flows surged in September, posting the highest monthly volume on record.

Bond flows rose to a record level of $32.2 billion in September, as developing-country issuers took advantage of near record low borrowing costs.

An unprecedented investor demand allowed frontier-market borrower to tap the international debt market, with Zambia issuing inaugural glob-al bond.

Corporate borrowers continued to dominate the issuance activity, accounting for 76% of total monthly volume. (73% for year-to-date total).

Preliminary figures indicate that strong issuance activity has continued also in October, with EM borrowers raising more than $11 billion in the first two weeks.

Syndicated bank lending rose in September, due mainly to strong flows to Latin America region.

Syndicated bank loans to developing countries rebounded to $20.1 billion from $16.5 billion in August, as lending activity increased to Latin America region.

LAC accounted for 49% of syndicated loans in the month, with especially Mexico dominating the regional market-Mexico’s Cemex (a cement com-pany) raised about $6.2 billion

Nevertheless, year-to-date flows remain subdued thus far this year, down 32.4% from a year ago, as many global banks continue their de-leveraging and more companies turn to the bond market.

Equity placements rose sharply in September, reflecting a couple of mega deals by Russian and Mexican banks, but year-to-date flows are still down 9% compared to the like period of 2011. Bond flows posted a record monthly volume in September amid near record low borrowing costs. Preliminary October figures suggest a prolonged rally. Bank lending also bounced back, with strong lending activity to Latin American countries.

13

October 17, 2012

Exchange Rates

The euro pared gains after a strong rise, on con-cerns about Spain’s bailout and banking union

Agreement on a Europe-wide banking supervisor on June 29 and expectation of ECB monetary eas-ing (OMT on Sept 6) caused the euro to appreci-ate strongly with respect to US dollar and Yen.

But weak growth outturns in Euro Area, fall in risk appetite, and concerns about when Spain would seek bailout and the structure of a banking union pared the euro gains in late Sept and early Oct. The US dollar weakened after the Fed’s quantita-tive easing (QE3) on Sept 13, but euro weakness and rising risk perceptions put upward pressure.

The Yen weakened relative to US dollar and euro after quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan in September and on slowing economic activity.

Developing countries' currencies in general ap-preciated vis-à-vis the US dollar together with financial market stabilization and rise in com-modity prices, with variation across countries.

High global crude oil and commodity prices ben-efited currencies of commodity exporters such as Russia and Chile. The Mexican peso was lifted by strengthening demand in the US, export perfor-mance, and inflows into bond markets.

A spurt of reforms and improvement in investors' confidence and rise in portfolio inflows caused the Indian rupee to rise over 5% in Sept.

However, the South African rand depreciated sharply after mining unrest and a rating down-grade by Moody's. Another commodity exporter currency, Brazil’s real, fell modestly from inter-ventions in currency markets and weak growth.

The trend in the Euro-US dollar rates has influ-enced developing countries' currencies, which in general weakened relative to the Euro

The rise of the euro vis-à-vis the USD and yen also saw developing countries currencies weaken relative to the euro since July.

Despite improved trade and current account po-sitions, the Turkish lira weakened relative to the US dollar and Euro on slower growth and expec-tations of monetary easing.

Given their large increase vis-à-vis USD, the Mex-ican peso and Chilean peso remained fairly stable relative to euro, and the Indian rupee rose.

The Chinese yuan strengthened relative to USD (to a 19-year high) and relative to euro in Octo-ber partly from US dollar weakness and expecta-tions of a bottoming out of the slowdown in Q3.

The euro pared some of its gains in late September and early October, after a strong rise in previous weeks from expectations of Euro Area monetary policy easing. Developing countries’ currencies strengthened in general relative to the US dollar, with commodity exporters’ currencies buoyed by high international crude oil and industrial commodities prices, whiles others gained from rising inflows related to high income quantita-tive easing and US dollar weakness; but in general, they weakened relative to the euro with some exceptions.

96

98

100

102

104

106

Jun-12 Jul-12 Aug-12 Sep-12 Oct-12

USD/EuroYen/EuroUSD/Yen

High income nominal exchange ratesIndex, Jun 2012 = 100, 5-day m.a.


92

96

100

104

108

112


Brazil ChinaIndia ChileMexico RussiaTurkey South AfricaEuro/US$

Dev eloping exchange rates relativ e to euroEuro/local currency, Index, Jun 1 2012 = 100, 5-day m.a.


96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112


Brazil ChinaIndia ChileMexico RussiaTurkey South AfricaUS$/Euro

Dev eloping exchange rates relativ e to US$US$/local currency, Index, Jun 1 2012 = 100, 5-day m.a.


14

October 17, 2012

Inflation

Inflation momentum ticked up in EAP region, but headline inflation levels remain well within the tar-geted inflation range

Inflation momentum accelerated in the two months to September across the EAP region after a period of decline in inflation momentum which was due to monetary restraint, but also weak eco-nomic activity and declining commodity prices

With moderate inflation levels and policy rates slightly above their pre-crisis levels, policy makers in the region have some policy space for further monetary stimulus.

Inflation momentum accelerated in a number of countries in the ECA (including Bulgaria, Romania, Russia) and LAC (Brazil and Mexico) regions. Howev-er momentum eased in Turkey and remains moderate in Chile and Columbia

Acceleration in inflation momentum in Russia where inflation surpassed the upper limits of an-nual inflation targets partly reflects food price pressures but also supply side bottlenecks

In Turkey, inflation momentum stabilized due to tighter monetary stance, but the headline infla-tion at 9% (y/y) in September is way above the 5% central bank inflation target

Inflation momentum accelerated in Brazil where recent temporary food price pressures have exac-erbated price pressures stemming from capacity constraints

Inflation momentum eased in MENA, South Asia and Sub Saharan Africa over the summer although head-line inflation remains high

Inflation momentum showed further decline in South Asia due to improved supply, weak demand and tight monetary policy.

Inflation momentum declined in Sub-Saharan Africa, over the past few months due to decline in commodity prices and tight monetary policy.

Inflation momentum declined in a number of MENA countries, including Egypt, due to admin-istrative measures. However, inflation momen-tum in Iran and Syria remain in double digits since mid 2010 due to the sanctions and supply disrup-tions related to political turmoil

Inflation momentum continued to accelerate in high income countries and moderated in developing econo-mies with inflation rates moving toward the trend growth rates in both country groups. Inflation momentum accelerated in a number of ECA and LAC countries partly due to food price pressures but also pointing to weak supply response to growing demand supported by monetary easing. The headline inflation remains high and volatile in MENA, SAS and SST, but inflation momentum moderated considerably in these regions.

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Middle East & North Africa excl. Iran and SyriaSouth AsiaSouth AfricaSSA excl. South Africa

MENA, SAS & SSA inflationPercent change, y/y


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-10Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12Apr-12 Jul-12

ChinaEAP excl. ChinaEurope & Central AsiaLatin America & Car ibbean

EAP, ECA & LAC inflationPercent change, 2m/2m saar


-2

0

2

4

6

8

10


Developing CPI inflationHigh-income CPI inflation

Dev eloping and high income inflationPercent change, 2m/2m saar

Source: World Bank Prospects Group Last updated: Oct. 12, 2012

15

October 17, 2012

Average 2011 2012 20121999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun Jul Aug

World 2.8 -8.2 9.0 4.5 0.1 5.2 1.3 5.8 0.4 0.0 0.4 -0.2High - in come cou n tries 1.4 -12.8 8.1 2.9 -2.3 5.4 0.3 2.6 0.0 -0.4 0.2 -0.6

Industrial countries 1.4 -13.1 7.8 2.6 -2.1 5.7 0.0 2.5 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.6United States 1.3 -11.4 5.4 4.1 1.2 5.6 5.1 5.9 0.0 0.1 0.5 -1.2Japan 1.1 -21.8 16.6 -2.3 -15.8 23.6 1.7 5.1 -3.4 0.4 -1.0 -1.6Euro Area 1.2 -14.5 6.9 3.4 0.9 0.9 -6.2 -2.4 1.1 -0.7 0.4 0.6United Kingdom -0.4 -9.1 2.1 -0.8 -4.3 -0.8 -5.4 -0.5 1.3 -2.4 2.9 -0.5

Other high income 2.1.. -13.1 7.8 2.6 5.7 0.0 2.5 -0.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.6Hong Kong (China) .. -8.4 3.4 0.8 -0.8 -1.9 -4.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.8 .. ..Singapore 6.3 -4.3 29.6 7.9 -20.0 -9.8 5.0 24.6 3.0 4.3 -8.7 -2.3Taiwan (China) 4.7 -8.1 26.9 5.0 -18.1 -8.4 -2.2 5.3 -0.3 -1.9 2.0 0.2

Dev elopin g cou n tries -210.3 1.3 10.7 7.3 4.2 4.9 3.0 11.3 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.4East Asia and Pacific 20.8 8.5 14.5 11.6 8.7 10.5 4.2 17.1 1.1 0.6 0.4 0.5

China 15.2 11.2 15.5 13.7 10.6 11.0 10.9 13.2 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5Indonesia 3.4 1.3 4.7 4.0 10.9 8.6 -6.9 9.4 -0.6 -1.8 2.5 -0.3Thailand 8.6 -7.2 14.5 -9.4 -11.1 13.5 -79.9 267.7 5.8 -8.1 -0.5 1.2Malaysia 5.8 -7.6 7.2 1.2 -8.3 3.2 8.6 12.3 3.2 -1.8 -3.3 -0.1

Europe and Central Asia 5.1 -10.2 9.5 5.9 -0.3 1.9 5.2 4.7 1.6 -1.1 0.9 -1.4Russian Federation 5.5 -9.5 8.3 4.8 4.3 1.2 2.0 8.7 2.1 -0.5 0.9 -0.4Turkey 3.7 -10.3 13.1 9.1 -9.1 4.4 15.1 1.7 2.8 -3.0 0.8 -4.1Poland 6.3 -3.7 10.8 7.3 8.1 7.0 12.3 -2.5 -0.5 -1.9 2.4 -0.4Czech Republic 4.8 -13.1 9.8 6.6 2.8 -1.5 5.2 -1.0 -0.3 -0.4 0.9 -2.9

Latin America and Caribbean 1.5 -6.8 6.8 3.2 1.9 -0.7 -1.5 1.5 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.4Brazil 3.3 -7.3 10.6 0.4 0.6 -3.8 -6.9 -3.7 -0.8 0.2 0.5 1.5Mexico .. -7.3 6.2 4.0 2.1 2.1 4.0 4.3 -0.7 1.3 0.5 -0.8Argentina 2.7 -5.1 9.2 4.6 5.8 -3.4 -0.3 -2.8 -0.6 -0.3 1.8 -0.4Colombia 2.7 -5.5 4.5 4.9 1.4 6.2 -2.6 0.6 4.8 1.4 -0.3 ..

Middle East and North Africa 1.6 -2.8 1.6 -9.8 -16.9 -2.8 9.2 13.7 0.6 -1.1 .. ..Saudi Arabia 1.0 -10.9 7.8 6.3 -2.6 16.2 11.2 13.0 -1.1 -4.9 .. ..Iran 1.1 -0.3 1.1 -0.6 0.4 -3.9 -6.9 -16.5 -2.2 -5.1 .. ..Egypt .. -3.4 10.0 -6.4 46.9 5.5 14.4 5.4 -2.7 0.0 -3.1 -3.5Algeria 3.9 -7.0 -2.8 0.0 -1.3 -0.7 -1.7 6.4 -0.2 0.0 .. ..

South Asia 6.8 -0.2 9.9 5.0 -2.7 -3.7 0.2 10.8 2.7 -1.4 -0.3 1.6India 6.7 0.2 9.7 4.8 -1.9 -5.2 0.7 9.9 2.8 -1.5 -0.5 1.9Pakistan 6.7 -4.8 11.0 6.4 -14.1 7.3 -0.9 18.5 0.3 -0.3 1.9 -0.6Sri Lanka .... .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 0.7 4.1 3.9 8.3 -4.6 0.0 -0.3 -1.8 6.3 .. ..South Africa 2.5 -12.8 4.8 2.4 -5.1 -1.3 4.4 6.6 3.2 -2.2 -0.4 3.0Nigeria .. 2.0 11.2 2.9 12.1 -2.4 -23.9 20.8 -0.4 -0.5 .. ..

Memo:OECD 1.5 -12.8 7.8 2.7 -2.0 5.5 0.4 2.7 0.0 -0.3 0.2 -0.7Developing excl. China 3.5 -4.8 7.2 2.3 -0.8 -0.1 -3.5 9.7 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.1Developing oil exporters 0.8 -5.1 5.2 1.0 -1.4 1.6 2.0 7.6 0.6 -0.5 0.6 -0.6Dev. non-oil exporters -213.6699 4.2 13.0 9.7 6.4 6.1 3.4 12.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.6

Table A.1 Global industrial production growth(constant prices; percent; seasonally adjusted annual rates except monthly figures which are

in percent change over previous month a/)

a In general, series refer to industrial production excluding construction (e.g. manufacturing,

mining and utilitites). Where this is not available the closest proxy is used, often

manufacturing output or oil output, if the country is a major oil producer.

16

October 17, 2012

Weight Avg 2011 2012 20121995 1999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun Jul Aug

Real GDP

High - in come cou n tries .. 2.3 -3.5 2.9 1.6 2.2 1.1 1.8 0.6 .. .. .. ..Industrial countries .. 2.3 -3.6 2.8 1.5 2.2 1.2 1.8 0.5 .. .. .. ..

United States .. 2.6 -3.1 2.4 1.8 1.3 4.1 2.0 1.3 .. .. .. ..Japan .. 1.3 -5.5 4.6 -0.7 6.9 0.3 5.3 0.7 .. .. .. ..Euro Area .. 2.0 -4.4 2.0 1.5 0.4 -1.5 0.1 -0.8 .. .. .. ..

United Kingdom .. 2.6 -4.0 1.8 0.9 2.1 -1.4 -1.2 -1.5 .. .. .. ..

Real merch an dis e imports

High - in come cou n tries .. -19.0 11.8 8.0 -9.3 -18.8 16.1 -6.3 2.1 -4.0 1.0 ..Industrial countries .. -19.4 11.1 8.3 -9.4 -20.3 15.9 -6.6 2.3 -4.2 0.9 ..

United States 8.2 -16.5 14.9 3.8 -4.7 0.5 16.4 7.1 2.8 -4.2 1.9 -2.6Japan 5.2 -4.0 17.9 14.7 16.4 -4.8 8.8 15.3 8.6 -9.5 2.6 -0.9Euro Area .. -15.8 3.0 7.8 -13.1 -28.8 7.2 -15.2 2.8 -4.2 -2.1 ..United Kindgom 6.3 -25.8 9.3 5.4 -10.2 -2.5 13.9 1.7 3.0 -5.4 -4.4 ..

Other high income 5.5 5.4 11.1 8.3 -9.4 -20.3 15.9 -6.6 0.2 -2.6 1.9 ..Hong Kong (China) 6.6 -9.7 18.7 4.3 -2.5 4.1 8.0 -13.1 4.4 -4.7 0.1 ..Singapore 5.2 -12.7 16.0 1.2 0.6 -1.3 26.6 -4.2 6.9 -1.4 -4.7 1.1Taiwan (China) 6.2 -19.4 35.4 3.9 -22.8 -11.9 8.5 8.8 -8.1 -2.3 5.2 -7.3

I mport Prices

High - in come cou n tries .. -7.5 5.2 8.7 2.7 9.8 1.2 -7.1 -0.3 -1.1 -1.1 ..Industrial countries .. -7.7 5.3 8.6 2.0 9.9 1.4 -8.1 -0.4 -1.3 -1.2 ..

United States -0.1 -11.4 6.9 10.9 2.9 4.9 2.3 -12.0 -1.2 -1.5 0.0 0.8Japan -1.4 -25.2 7.1 7.4 -5.1 7.0 7.0 -13.7 -3.2 -1.3 -1.6 0.1Euro Area .. -10.0 8.3 8.6 1.4 7.8 3.4 -4.9 -0.1 -1.3 0.9 ..United Kindgom -1.1 2.2 5.8 7.9 11.8 -4.0 4.8 -13.9 -2.1 -1.7 1.6 ..

Other high income -1.0 7.8 5.3 8.6 2.0 9.9 1.4 -8.1 0.8 0.2 0.4 ..Hong Kong (China) -1.2 -1.3 5.1 7.4 5.4 5.1 2.9 1.3 0.7 -0.1 0.2 ..Singapore -0.3 -11.8 9.2 16.1 0.8 -0.9 18.2 -22.4 -1.6 -2.9 -0.3 1.8Taiwan (China) -1.6 -9.6 7.0 7.7 1.1 12.1 -2.9 -13.2 -0.9 -1.5 0.5 0.9

Real effectiv e ex ch an ge rates a

Euro Area 33.5 1.3 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.3 0.4 -2.3 -6.6 -1.8 -1.2 -1.8 0.1United States 14.4 -1.1 -3.7 -3.7 -3.7 -6.7 0.5 1.5 5.7 3.8 4.8 4.8 4.8Japan 7.4 -1.2 9.8 9.8 9.8 0.5 1.9 1.2 2.6 5.1 6.1 6.1 6.1United Kindgom 5.4 -2.4 -12.0 -12.0 -12.0 -1.7 2.0 1.7 6.3 4.6 5.6 5.6 5.6Canada 3.5 -0.6 -8.3 -8.3 -8.3 2.6 -1.6 -1.4 -2.4 5.2 6.2 6.2 6.2Hong Kong (China) 3.5 -2.7 -5.5 -5.5 -5.5 -4.9 0.4 2.4 4.4 1.0 0.9 0.0 1.1Korea, Rep. 2.5 -1.7 -15.9 -15.9 -15.9 5.2 -0.6 0.2 -3.1 -1.5 -0.6 1.4 1.0Singapore 2.3 1.3 4.6 4.6 4.6 6.3 2.5 3.1 3.8 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0Taiwan (China) 2.1 -2.3 -4.2 -4.2 -4.2 0.7 -1.7 -3.1 -2.6 -0.3 -1.1 -0.5 0.0Switzerland 1.7 0.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 13.3 3.6 1.6 -2.2 4.5 5.5 6.5 7.5

Table A.2 Demand conditions in high-income countries(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual rates

except monthly figures, which are m/m change)

a/ JP Morgan Trade Weighted Indices (Real, Broad basis). Data are averages of monthly data for the period in question.

17

October 17, 2012

Average 2011 2012 20121999-08 2009 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

Policy RatesUnited States 3.44 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.12 1.12 1.12 1.12 1.12Japan 0.33 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 1.30 1.30 1.30 1.30Euro Area .. 1.28 1.28 1.28 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00United Kingdom 4.80 0.65 0.65 0.65 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.50 1.50 1.50

Ten year bon dUnited States 4.70 3.67 3.26 3.21 2.05 2.04 1.82 0.79 1.62 1.53 1.68 ..Japan 1.49 1.47 1.33 1.15 1.02 0.96 0.85 2.90 0.79 0.78 0.80 ..Euro Area .. 4.36 4.03 3.79 4.20 3.65 3.44 25.08 3.41 3.25 3.01 2.43United Kindgom 4.77 4.80 5.17 9.09 19.03 24.74 25.40 0.00 27.82 25.82 24.34 ..

Spreads (Bas is poin ts ) b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..East Asia and Pacific .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..China 82 126 77 193 271 271 259 185 205 179 171 163Indonesia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Phillippines .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Malaysia 129 230 140 145 179 176 175 149 167 147 131 123

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 262 443 229 259 344 307 297 232 269 224 204 191Turkey 404 367 221 260 350 352 328 249 286 237 223 218Poland 99 222 156 210 295 250 232 163 192 158 139 140

Latin America and Caribbean 522 522 345 353 408 364 371 337 366 330 314 306Brazil 551 306 202 195 231 202 206 178 202 170 161 149Mexico 206 302 187 186 227 209 207 174 188 169 167 158Argentina 2920 1198 690 687 910 834 1063 1018 1090 1039 924 870Colombia 370 329 189 168 197 174 165 135 151 129 127 113

Middle East and North Africa .. 578 346 369 439 446 459 478 489 486 459 445Egypt .. 134 173 371 477 542 554 485 545 489 422 424

South Asia d .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Pakistan .. 1186 624 922 1171 1274 1116 1048 1089 1051 1005 897Sri Lanka .. 1066 369 358 440 450 460 416 453 419 375 327

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 172 301 167 195 250 241 230 178 198 168 169 185

Gros s in flow s e

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. 353 492 455 78 118 99 0 28 44 29 69East Asia and Pacific .. 91 144 116 14 26 40 0 11 8 16 13Europe and Central Asia .. 72 105 115 21 24 28 0 7 15 7 19Latin America and Carribean .. 137 161 154 35 53 21 0 8 15 2 30Middle East and North Africa .. 4 13 6 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0South Asia .. 31 53 33 4 10 5 0 1 3 2 4Sub-Saharan Africa .. 18 15 30 3 4 5 0 1 4 1 2

Table A.3 Global credit conditions(percent unless otherwise indicated a/)

a/Monthly figures are simple averages of daily figures. Quarterly and Annual figures are simple averages of monthly figures.

b/Average values for Spreads are for the period 1996-2003.

c/Aggregates as defined by JP Morgan.

d/East Asia and Pacific including South Asian countries.

e/In billions of US dollars.

18

October 17, 2012

Weightsb Average 2011 2012 2012

1990 2000-09 2009 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 M ay Jun Jul Aug Sep

Energy .. .. 114.4 144.7 188.9 186.6 200.8 183.7 183.2 185.9 163.8 173.6 187.3 188.8

Coal, Australia .. 10.7 150.9 207.8 255.0 241.3 238.6 200.6 188.5 201.2 183.1 185.3 191.1 189.0

Crude o il, average .. 13.1 115.7 148.0 194.8 193.2 210.7 192.6 192.5 195.0 169.9 181.2 197.2 199.1

Natural gas , Europe .. 15.1 137.7 131.0 166.2 180.6 182.0 182.0 175.9 184.0 181.6 175.9 176.7 175.1

N o n-energy 100.00 .. 142.0 173.9 209.9 188.8 192.9 189.3 191.0 189.9 183.2 191.9 189.1 192.1

A griculture 69.10 .. 149.2 170.4 209.0 190.7 192.6 191.6 200.6 192.3 187.0 201.1 200.3 200.3

B everages 16.90 .. 157.5 182.1 208.2 183.7 171.7 162.7 169.8 165.7 159.0 168.7 168.5 172.3

Cocoa 3.90 9.8 187.8 203.7 193.7 160.5 152.2 148.3 162.2 150.4 147.2 152.8 163.3 170.4

Coffee, arabica 8.00 3.3 125.2 170.6 236.0 211.7 192.3 158.1 158.0 160.8 146.9 165.8 152.2 155.8

Coffee, robusta 2.80 1.0 147.5 155.8 216.0 193.7 199.3 207.3 210.0 211.4 209.1 211.8 210.7 207.6

F o o d 29.40 .. 155.7 169.6 210.1 197.6 203.6 206.9 225.3 206.2 203.8 225.7 226.5 223.8

F ats and o ils 10.10 .. 165.0 184.5 222.7 202.5 216.9 231.1 250.6 231.4 224.2 247.1 253.2 251.5

Palm o il 2.30 4.6 161.8 213.4 266.6 242.8 262.2 257.8 235.7 257.1 236.7 240.5 236.2 230.5

Soybean meal 4.10 10.4 190.2 176.5 185.6 166.3 182.7 227.5 294.5 231.4 235.1 280.3 300.4 302.7

Soybeans 2.00 8.0 159.1 163.7 196.8 177.5 188.5 208.1 245.0 208.6 206.4 241.0 249.0 245.0

Grains 6.90 .. 169.2 171.8 238.5 229.3 226.8 227.1 264.0 227.9 228.7 265.4 265.6 261.1

M aize 1.70 6.3 167.7 188.4 295.6 272.9 281.4 273.8 333.1 272.9 270.9 337.5 336.5 325.2

Rice, Thailand, 5% 2.90 8.4 193.9 170.8 189.7 209.6 189.5 203.6 198.6 209.8 209.6 200.4 198.3 196.9

Wheat, US, HRW 1.90 7.2 147.1 146.8 207.6 183.6 183.0 176.5 229.4 173.5 181.3 226.9 229.3 232.0

Other fo o d 12.40 .. 131.3 148.2 167.8 162.2 165.2 156.8 157.1 153.4 154.6 161.6 155.9 153.8

Bananas, US 2.30 8.5 140.5 144.0 160.6 157.7 174.5 162.4 159.2 158.2 158.3 160.0 157.7 160.0

Sugar, world 7.50 4.2 183.6 215.4 263.0 244.5 242.1 215.9 215.0 210.5 207.1 231.5 211.2 202.2

R aw materials 22.80 .. 129.0 166.3 206.7 177.8 176.5 169.3 156.1 172.0 160.3 157.8 153.0 157.5

Cotton ("A" Index) 5.90 1.7 113.6 187.6 273.5 187.6 182.0 163.4 152.5 160.4 148.9 152.1 152.9 152.4

Rubber, Singapore 4.80 11.8 129.1 245.6 324.1 242.3 258.9 241.3 199.6 250.5 215.0 206.9 187.7 204.2

Sawnwood, M alaysia 2.90 3.0 122.2 128.6 142.5 138.3 133.9 134.0 131.1 135.3 130.9 130.1 129.9 133.2

F ert ilizers 2.70 .. 203.8 187.2 267.0 284.2 260.1 270.0 256.9 274.4 259.9 255.8 256.7 258.1

Triple superphosphate 0.90 5.2 127.8 189.5 267.2 280.0 218.6 233.5 240.7 240.7 240.7 240.7 240.7 240.7

M etals and minerals 28.20 .. 120.3 179.6 205.5 174.0 185.7 175.4 163.9 175.5 166.6 165.7 158.4 167.6

Aluminum 7.90 2.0 87.7 114.5 126.5 110.3 114.8 104.4 101.6 105.8 99.6 98.8 97.2 108.7

Copper 9.30 12.6 140.0 204.8 240.0 204.2 226.1 214.5 210.1 216.3 201.8 206.2 204.3 219.8

Gold .. 13.3 218.7 275.3 352.8 378.1 380.3 362.5 372.4 357.2 359.4 358.4 366.5 392.2

Nickel 2.20 9.3 99.4 147.9 155.4 124.7 133.2 116.6 111.1 115.8 112.2 109.4 106.7 117.3

M emo:

C rude Oil (US$ ) .. 13.1 61.8 79.0 104.0 103.2 112.5 102.8 102.8 104.1 90.7 96.8 105.3 106.3

Table A.4 Commodity price indices(current US dollar index,index unless otherwise indicated; a/)

a/ The World Bank primary commodity price indices are computed from 1987-89 export values in US dollars

for low- and middle-income economies, rebased to 1990.

b/ Energy and gold prices are not included in the index.

19

October 17, 2012


Ex port v alu es

Dev elopin g cou n tries 11.1 -22.5 29.8 22.6 3.0 -2.1 15.8 -1.2 3.4 -4.3 -2.2 0.6East Asia and Pacific 18.5 -16.4 30.9 19.7 8.9 -7.8 13.4 18.2 5.2 -3.3 -4.5 0.6

China 22.8 -16.4 31.6 20.2 7.9 -0.1 5.8 29.5 6.2 -2.6 -5.8 3.0Indonesia .. -15.3 35.8 29.0 1.9 -18.3 3.4 -19.7 -1.9 -5.1 4.6 -16.4Thailand 12.6 -14.2 26.9 15.0 11.4 -51.8 78.2 12.4 7.7 -6.5 0.2 -1.3

Europe and Central Asia 18.9 -32.6 26.8 29.3 -5.2 19.1 16.8 -19.9 2.2 -6.4 -0.6 3.1Russian Federation 20.3 -36.2 32.8 30.0 -10.6 30.1 8.2 -25.2 3.0 -9.2 0.8 0.9Turkey 17.2 -23.0 11.1 18.7 9.8 -8.3 42.0 18.1 4.3 0.0 -3.9 8.3Poland 19.7 -23.6 15.0 17.9 -21.5 -19.1 33.7 -15.6 -1.6 -0.9 -1.3 1.7

Latin America and Caribbean 8.3 -20.0 28.1 22.4 2.4 1.5 13.8 -18.9 1.8 -5.7 4.1 -2.3Brazil 14.5 -22.4 31.6 27.0 2.8 0.4 -2.8 -27.0 3.2 -12.9 7.4 -1.6Mexico 9.5 -21.3 29.9 17.2 -0.2 4.0 29.5 -6.3 2.2 -6.3 6.1 -4.5Argentina 10.2 -20.3 21.8 23.0 11.1 -8.5 0.9 -30.6 3.4 -2.4 9.3 -0.5

Middle East and North Africa 21.8 -36.3 27.1 17.1 -13.1 24.1 19.7 -14.8 4.4 -5.0 .. ..Saudi Arabia 21.7 -43.1 34.8 42.3 15.3 36.1 34.8 -10.0 -3.4 -3.0 .. ..Iran .. -37.5 33.5 29.8 -23.0 33.7 2.3 -55.3 -5.8 -7.8 .. ..Egypt 23.3 -8.7 14.4 15.0 -8.8 10.6 -17.3 -33.2 -4.0 -2.9 0.0 ..

South Asia 15.8 -13.3 31.4 33.4 15.4 -27.8 9.7 -10.3 2.5 -2.4 -4.6 3.3India 18.4 -14.7 34.5 34.3 22.5 -28.9 9.9 -12.7 3.7 -2.0 -5.0 3.8Pakistan 9.1 -13.0 21.6 19.3 -31.4 -31.4 29.8 19.4 -4.8 -2.5 3.1 -1.8Bangladesh 11.6 6.1 14.9 40.0 3.1 -16.5 -15.6 -1.2 -0.4 -6.8 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 16.8 -30.9 35.4 25.5 -10.6 -11.7 41.6 -8.6 -2.8 -4.6 .. ..South Africa 11.8 -22.6 30.1 19.1 -5.4 -18.2 13.2 -32.3 6.4 -9.0 3.4 1.7Nigeria 21.0 -39.9 49.3 36.4 -21.4 -21.9 69.7 6.2 -15.0 -1.2 .. ..

Ex port prices b,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. -15.6 9.8 14.2 0.4 -0.1 -3.2 -11.6 -0.8 -1.5 0.2 ..East Asia and Pacific .. -8.7 5.3 10.5 5.5 -2.7 -10.5 -2.5 -0.3 0.0 1.3 ..

China 0.0 -8.0 3.9 9.9 6.2 -2.1 -11.9 -0.8 -0.1 0.2 1.7 ..Indonesia .. -21.0 14.5 17.6 1.4 -2.8 -14.0 -8.3 -0.3 -2.3 -1.8 ..Thailand 5.7 0.3 9.2 5.7 0.5 -0.4 1.0 0.5 -0.9 -0.1 0.5 -1.4

Europe and Central Asia .. -23.7 13.1 20.5 -2.8 4.1 2.9 -26.4 -2.1 -5.2 -2.8 ..Russian Federation .. -28.9 17.7 25.8 1.1 6.3 7.9 -30.1 -2.5 -5.3 -4.1 ..Turkey 3.8 -16.1 4.9 11.6 -8.3 -11.6 1.9 -10.4 -1.0 -1.0 -0.1 0.6Poland -0.9 -11.4 -8.6 8.9 -36.0 -4.1 0.0 -22.2 -1.0 0.1 2.5 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 1.0 -14.2 14.4 16.3 -0.5 -10.1 -1.1 -14.8 0.2 -1.8 -1.0 ..Brazil 5.4 -15.1 12.6 15.9 4.2 -11.2 -12.3 -4.1 0.7 -1.2 -3.0 ..Mexico 5.8 -14.4 12.2 14.5 -4.5 -7.5 8.8 -23.0 -0.3 -3.9 1.7 2.4Argentina 5.3 -12.1 5.7 16.4 4.1 -8.4 -8.9 19.1 4.9 4.0 -5.8 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. -30.8 18.1 18.0 -5.6 31.0 55.6 7.6 2.5 -2.0 .. ..

Saudi Arabia 23.8 -43.8 36.0 33.9 -7.9 11.9 28.7 8.7 -0.9 -8.7 .. ..Iran .. -34.2 26.2 29.7 -12.2 28.9 28.6 -40.5 -4.4 -6.7 .. ..Egypt .. -22.3 11.9 20.0 -3.0 3.0 -1.2 -16.7 -1.5 -3.8 -3.6 ..

South Asia 2.4 -11.9 9.9 12.7 5.1 -3.4 -12.5 -6.7 -0.2 -0.9 -1.5 ..

India 4.3 -14.1 10.1 13.6 6.5 -3.9 -14.6 -7.0 -0.3 -1.3 -2.0 ..Pakistan 0.5 8.7 18.3 20.0 11.9 3.5 20.4 -31.1 4.1 1.4 1.0 ..Bangladesh -6.7 -6.7 3.4 9.0 2.4 3.5 -13.7 2.8 0.2 1.2 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. -25.2 23.8 24.7 -18.6 10.1 20.9 -27.6 -5.2 -2.7 .. ..

South Africa 6.9 -20.5 26.4 18.4 8.1 -28.1 8.0 -22.2 -3.4 -2.3 -3.1 ..Nigeria .. -35.3 28.1 30.9 -40.5 54.4 45.6 -34.3 -8.9 -4.0 .. ..

Table A.5 Developing countries ' merchandise export growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise export (F.O.B), customs basis.

/b Implicit export unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely

figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade

price for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade

weight reported.

20

October 17, 2012


I mport v alu esDev elopin g cou n tries 15.8 -20.7 30.2 25.1 3.3 10.6 16.5 -12.1 7.8 -6.2 0.5 -0.9

East Asia and Pacific 18.7 -15.5 37.2 24.5 12.4 20.0 14.7 -14.9 11.7 -7.7 0.2 -1.7China 23.2 -11.8 39.1 25.2 14.8 30.2 7.5 -20.4 14.3 -7.7 1.0 -0.9Indonesia 16.8 -25.0 40.4 30.7 9.7 29.5 16.8 -1.1 -1.3 -2.0 -6.0 -12.5Thailand 15.5 -25.4 37.1 25.0 13.2 -22.1 58.8 3.4 11.6 -13.6 -0.4 0.7

Europe and Central Asia 17.2 -33.7 26.0 29.9 -15.2 3.7 23.1 -10.5 4.4 -4.4 2.5 -3.1Russian Federation 17.5 -34.7 28.9 31.3 -19.5 1.1 38.7 -16.6 3.8 -4.1 5.3 -6.4Turkey 16.0 -30.6 31.6 30.2 -12.9 -7.5 12.6 -4.4 8.4 -8.1 -0.2 -3.8Poland 16.1 -30.0 14.2 19.9 -22.9 -21.1 32.4 -21.1 -1.6 -1.8 -2.2 1.0

Latin America and Caribbean 10.1 -24.7 29.1 21.9 0.1 1.4 17.8 -5.0 4.4 -6.4 0.9 -0.5Brazil 11.6 -26.0 42.1 24.7 -10.1 12.2 -2.6 1.9 2.0 -7.3 -6.2 -1.5Mexico 9.4 -24.2 28.5 16.5 3.6 -2.0 31.2 -7.1 1.8 -7.8 5.8 -2.3Argentina 6.2 -32.5 45.8 30.5 9.3 -16.5 -17.8 -14.4 9.5 -4.2 2.8 -0.4

Middle East and North Africa 14.7 -6.6 13.9 16.1 10.3 9.2 0.0 38.5 6.3 -4.5 .. ..Saudi Arabia 14.4 -18.9 12.6 23.3 7.1 9.6 57.8 9.6 3.2 0.8 .. ..Iran 17.1 -14.8 33.4 44.5 45.0 -8.5 -53.8 116.9 7.3 -4.5 .. ..Egypt 11.7 -6.8 17.8 11.5 -7.4 -8.1 62.4 0.2 0.6 -4.5 -11.8 ..

South Asia 19.0 -19.3 32.0 33.1 2.1 5.2 23.6 -39.5 -3.3 0.9 4.9 7.1India 21.3 -19.2 33.9 34.4 -0.1 6.1 32.3 -47.2 -3.7 1.6 5.0 7.6Pakistan 16.5 -22.6 19.4 16.5 23.3 -2.1 -14.8 7.3 2.0 -2.8 3.4 1.8Bangladesh 12.3 -8.6 27.6 29.9 -11.0 -7.3 9.7 73.5 -0.7 .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa 14.9 -18.3 13.9 23.9 -2.0 0.0 13.4 -0.7 -6.0 .. .. ..South Africa 13.2 -28.7 23.8 24.4 2.8 -6.7 14.5 -7.9 -7.1 -1.9 3.4 ..Nigeria 21.8 -20.2 9.9 24.1 -43.9 1.9 -5.3 14.3 -11.2 .. .. ..

I mport prices b ,c

Dev elopin g cou n tries .. -12.3 7.9 13.3 0.8 4.7 -5.6 -8.5 0.0 -2.3 -1.7 ..East Asia and Pacific .. -12.9 7.8 13.2 -0.9 6.0 -7.8 -11.9 0.7 -3.7 -1.6 ..

China .. -14.6 9.1 13.6 -0.7 3.3 -9.9 -12.3 1.4 -4.7 -1.7 ..Indonesia .. -19.8 12.3 19.3 -2.5 5.8 -6.2 -18.0 -1.9 -2.4 -2.2 ..Thailand 3.9 0.3 -0.1 6.0 -2.3 20.9 4.6 -1.2 0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -0.9

Europe and Central Asia .. -13.0 10.0 12.6 -2.6 1.7 -5.6 -2.5 1.9 -2.9 -0.9 ..Russian Federation 1.7 -8.3 5.5 10.6 3.9 0.2 -13.9 -1.8 0.0 -0.5 -0.6 ..Turkey 5.2 -13.6 21.2 12.7 -14.1 1.9 15.5 -1.0 9.4 -7.5 0.2 -3.0Poland -0.2 8.8 -6.4 7.6 1.1 27.3 -6.1 -10.2 2.6 -0.6 -8.6 ..

Latin America and Caribbean 4.1 -8.9 5.3 11.0 3.3 1.5 -2.0 1.1 -0.6 -0.7 -1.8 0.7Brazil 5.6 -11.1 3.9 14.2 1.3 4.5 0.2 -5.3 -1.0 -2.0 -1.5 -2.6Mexico 3.3 -3.8 4.3 7.2 3.6 0.6 -1.0 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.2Argentina 1.8 -11.8 5.3 9.7 30.1 -16.1 6.9 43.5 -3.7 1.4 -7.6 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. -10.6 6.3 10.0 -2.6 13.9 0.4 -3.9 0.0 -3.5 .. ..

Saudi Arabia .. -8.4 4.8 10.8 4.4 -0.8 -12.3 -1.6 0.0 -1.3 .. ..Iran .. -13.4 5.8 13.8 -0.1 1.8 -9.2 -10.2 0.9 -5.8 .. ..Egypt .. -14.5 6.5 15.9 -8.6 3.1 -9.1 -4.4 -0.5 -0.6 -6.2 ..

South Asia 2.3 -16.2 14.5 20.9 11.3 5.3 -2.1 -21.9 -4.0 2.9 -2.1 ..

India 3.3 -18.5 16.0 21.6 11.8 3.1 0.2 -21.6 -4.8 4.6 -2.1 ..Pakistan 9.6 -3.3 18.7 25.5 -3.4 30.1 12.6 -43.9 1.7 -4.3 -2.7 ..Bangladesh -6.2 -11.6 6.1 14.4 -2.5 -6.5 -14.8 3.9 -0.5 -0.6 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. -16.4 8.3 15.3 7.6 8.7 -8.4 -3.2 -1.1 -0.7 .. ..

South Africa 5.8 -22.8 7.9 18.9 31.0 31.8 -3.3 12.4 0.2 0.3 -11.2 ..Nigeria .. -11.3 5.0 13.1 3.5 -0.6 -10.8 -6.1 -1.4 -0.5 .. ..

Table A.6 Developing countries ' merchandise import growth(US dollar values unless otherwise indicated; percent change; seasonally adjusted annual

rates except monthly figures, which are m/m change /a)

/a Merchandise import (C.I.F.), customs basis.

/b Implicit import unit values, U.S. Dollar basis.

/c In many cases countries are very late in reporting trade prices. To estimate more timely

figures individual trade prices were updated using the median (mean) regional trade price

for developing (developed) countries whenever 60% or more of reporters by trade weight

reported. 21

October 17, 2012

US$ bn. % GDP 2011 2012 2012

2008 2008 2009 2010 2011 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 May Jun Jul Aug

World -168.7 -0.3 -181.0 -143.7 -247.3 -106.2 -283.6 -327.1 -103.5 -237.2 42.2 -322.8 93.7

High - in come cou n tries a -418.9 -1.0 -290.1 -273.8 -297.1 -227.7 -231.3 -263.7 -215.5 -230.5 -70.7 -279.6 55.4Industrial countries -499.8 -1.2 -392.8 -483.2 -668.6 -609.1 -649.6 -720.3 -624.7 -652.6 -463.2 -634.2 -339.7

United States -706.1 -5.0 -549.2 -690.0 -785.2 -761.3 -793.8 -842.7 -805.5 -857.0 -717.8 -820.4 -747.3Japan 183.2 3.7 27.9 75.3 -32.3 -27.4 -67.5 -68.8 -69.1 -107.4 -25.4 -104.8 -62.9Euro Area -19.6 -0.2 53.9 34.9 31.3 39.5 77.3 115.4 173.8 189.2 212.4 188.3 297.3United Kingdom -73.6 -2.8 -130.4 -154.1 -161.8 -171.4 -157.7 -169.6 -179.1 -144.2 -191.8 -129.4 ..

Other high income 80.9 4.2 -392.8 -483.2 -668.6 -609.1 -649.6 -720.3 -624.7 -230.5 -70.7 -279.6 55.4Hong Kong (China) 30.5 12.8 -29.1 -43.3 -54.2 -60.2 -63.4 -47.5 -60.5 -59.3 -63.7 -60.7 -69.0Singapore 26.9 13.9 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0.02Taiwan (China) 24.9 6.0 28.8 22.6 26.0 30.3 29.7 28.6 21.5 22.5 34.4 12.2 34.1

Dev elopin g cou n tries 293.5 1.8 106.9 124.4 40.0 112.0 -64.5 -76.1 100.0 -21.8 99.9 -60.9 25.2East Asia and Pacific 469.7 9.6 254.7 240.1 190.1 271.7 98.3 93.1 321.2 235.1 350.3 214.4 275.1

China 426.1 11.5 194.9 181.9 148.8 207.2 89.0 82.6 317.1 250.2 339.6 201.7 276.9Indonesia 0.6 0.1 19.5 22.1 26.1 33.6 11.3 5.4 -4.8 -3.2 -9.2 10.9 1.9Thailand -0.1 0.0 19.0 10.4 -6.3 -1.2 -26.1 -22.9 -18.2 -29.0 -7.7 -6.4 -10.9Malaysia 38.9 19.7 33.7 34.3 39.3 43.2 38.4 33.5 29.4 18.9 39.0 21.7 26.4

Europe and Central Asia .. .. 1.4 6.3 3.9 13.1 46.3 35.4 7.3 7.3 -12.3 -41.0 17.2Russian Federation 102.4 6.0 110.7 154.3 197.5 195.7 230.0 213.5 189.7 203.0 166.8 153.5 180.1Turkey -41.3 -5.7 -38.4 -71.4 -106.0 -100.9 -99.2 -93.9 -85.0 -96.1 -75.8 -81.5 -60.3Poland -29.0 -5.6 -91.1 -97.7 -137.8 -138.9 -123.9 -130.1 -103.5 -107.3 -94.9 -83.3 -75.4Czech Republic -6.6 -3.0 8.0 6.6 10.7 11.1 14.5 16.2 13.2 12.6 14.9 16.9 17.3

Latin America and Caribbean -21.6 -0.5 -22.4 -35.1 -38.6 -38.5 -38.3 -48.7 -87.0 -101.0 -87.5 -58.9 -76.1Brazil -28.2 -1.7 25.4 19.9 29.5 34.0 27.7 27.4 6.7 12.8 -2.4 27.7 26.9Mexico -15.8 -1.6 -4.7 -3.0 -1.4 -5.0 0.2 -1.0 -0.2 -1.8 4.4 6.0 -2.8Argentina 7.6 2.6 17.1 11.5 10.0 10.0 11.5 15.2 10.4 8.9 9.9 15.2 15.1Colombia -6.7 -3.0 0.0 -0.7 2.4 2.2 5.8 4.9 -2.8 -4.4 -5.9 -4.3 ..

Middle East and North Africa .. .. 10.2 45.6 56.1 38.6 51.7 69.6 25.1 24.4 20.9 .. ..Saudi Arabia 132.9 27.3 80.5 128.9 202.9 203.9 227.5 239.5 226.0 224.2 211.9 .. ..Iran 0.0 0.0 29.4 39.4 41.3 31.0 43.3 61.6 17.8 14.5 10.0 .. ..Egypt -1.3 -0.8 -21.7 -26.3 -28.4 -30.3 -28.2 -37.4 -40.3 -41.6 -39.2 -31.5 ..Algeria 0.04 0.03 4.5 16.1 26.3 26.7 26.6 16.2 5.9 4.6 1.6 .. ..

South Asia .. .. -117.1 -155.7 -206.7 -205.0 -242.0 -266.0 -201.9 -205.1 -195.3 -216.3 -232.1India .. .. -91.5 -121.5 -163.7 -158.7 -191.7 -219.8 -153.4 -156.4 -145.8 -167.1 -179.0Pakistan -15.7 -9.8 -14.3 -16.6 -18.8 -21.5 -23.5 -20.2 -19.9 -19.3 -20.8 -18.8 -20.7Bangladesh .. .. -5.3 -8.6 -9.5 -8.6 -9.0 -10.7 -15.6 -15.7 -16.9 .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa -29.9 -3.0 -14.2 32.6 45.5 42.3 30.3 53.6 45.1 28.3 32.2 .. ..South Africa -21.0 -7.5 -2.2 1.2 -2.8 -4.4 -7.5 -8.0 -14.8 -15.1 -15.8 -11.0 -12.8Nigeria 20.3 9.3 8.9 30.3 47.2 49.7 43.1 58.0 57.8 47.6 53.3 .. ..

Memo:OECD .. .. -420.5 -542.3 -765.3 -709.0 -738.2 -809.6 -705.8 -752.5 -524.8 -707.1 -407.6Developing excl. China .. .. -87.4 -55.5 -106.3 -93.5 -150.0 -154.6 -217.0 -270.0 -240.1 -235.0 -242.3Developing oil exporters 191.2 .. 180.0 311.3 411.3 404.0 428.1 437.7 336.3 323.9 294.6 306.4 319.4Developing non-oil exporters .. .. -73.9 -188.7 -374.3 -295.2 -495.7 -516.8 -236.6 -346.1 -194.8 -346.4 -281.3

CAB

Table A.7 Merchandise trade balances(Billion US dollars; annual rates)

a/ Seasonally adjusted

22

October 17, 2012

Weights Average 2011 2012 2012

1995 2000-09 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 May Jun Jul Aug Sep

World 100.0 94.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

High - in come cou n tries 78.3 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 70.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

United States (SDR/USD) 15.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Japan 7.4 112.0 6.7 10.1 6.7 3.8 1.9 -1.1 2.0 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7

Euro Area 29.5 .. -4.7 5.0 -0.8 -4.1 .. .. -2.8 -2.0 -2.0 1.0 3.7

United Kingdom 5.6 0.6 -0.9 3.8 -0.5 -1.9 -3.0 -1.8 -0.5 -2.3 0.2 0.9 2.5

Other high income 7.7 101.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Hong Kong (China) 3.7 7.8 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0

Singapore 2.3 1.6 6.7 8.4 1.2 1.0 -1.9 -1.7 -0.9 -1.3 1.4 1.0 1.4

Taiwan (China) 2.1 33.0 4.9 7.2 0.3 -1.3 -2.7 -2.3 0.0 -1.5 -0.2 0.1 1.4

Dev elopin g cou n tries 21.7 115.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

East Asia and Pacific 7.5 100.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 2.7 7.9 0.9 4.7 4.7 4.3 2.7 1.0 -0.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.6

Indonesia 1.1 9360.6 14.3 3.6 -0.1 -1.8 -7.4 -9.5 -1.0 -1.6 -0.3 -0.6 -0.6

Thailand 1.3 38.9 8.2 4.1 -3.3 -1.4 -3.3 -3.9 -1.4 -1.1 0.1 0.7 1.4

Malaysia 1.4 3.7 9.4 5.3 -1.1 -0.4 -3.1 -3.2 -1.3 -2.5 0.4 1.6 1.2

Europe and Central Asia 4.3 94.5 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Russian Federation 1.5 28.6 4.6 3.3 -1.6 -2.9 -9.9 -8.7 -4.7 -5.8 1.0 1.7 1.8

Turkey .. 1.3 3.2 -10.3 -20.3 -12.2 -13.3 -3.7 -1.3 -0.7 0.6 0.8 -0.2

Poland 0.5 3.5 3.4 1.8 -11.0 -10.7 -17.1 -11.0 -5.5 -2.0 0.7 3.1 2.8

Czech Republic 0.5 26.6 -0.2 8.0 -2.7 -6.9 -14.2 -13.8 -4.7 -3.3 -1.2 2.8 4.8

Latin America and Caribbean 5.5 142.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Brazil 1.1 2.3 13.6 5.1 -5.7 -5.7 -18.7 -19.4 -6.5 -3.2 0.9 0.1 0.1

Mexico 1.7 10.8 6.9 1.6 -9.2 -7.1 -13.4 -6.5 -4.3 -2.1 4.1 1.4 1.9

Argentina 0.4 2.7 -4.7 -5.2 -6.8 -7.6 -8.2 -9.7 -1.2 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1.3

Colombia 0.3 2329.3 13.6 2.8 -2.8 4.3 0.6 -0.1 -1.2 0.4 0.2 -1.3 0.3

Middle East and North Africa 1.7 163.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Saudi Arabia 0.8 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Iran 0.4 .. 0.4 0.0 0.0 -7.7 -10.2 -10.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

Egypt 0.3 5.2 -1.4 -5.2 -3.8 -2.7 -1.5 -2.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2

Algeria 0.3 73.4 -1.8 1.1 -0.4 -2.8 -4.9 -9.4 -1.2 -3.8 -4.1 -0.3 2.2

South Asia 1.2 107.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

India 0.8 45.5 5.9 -2.0 -11.8 -9.9 -17.3 -17.0 -4.9 -2.9 1.1 -0.2 1.9

Pakistan 0.2 62.4 -4.1 -1.3 -2.3 -5.6 -7.4 -8.2 -0.8 -3.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.2

Bangladesh 0.1 62.3 -0.8 -6.0 -8.6 -13.8 -10.4 -8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 -0.3

Sri Lanka 0.1 99.8 1.7 2.2 -0.3 -7.0 -15.5 -16.9 -0.6 -2.1 -0.5 0.6 0.4

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.5 117.9 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Africa 0.6 7.7 15.1 0.8 -14.8 -9.7 -16.4 -13.5 -4.0 -2.7 1.7 -0.2 0.1

Nigeria 0.3 124.9 -0.9 -3.1 -5.4 -3.6 -2.5 -3.1 -0.6 -2.4 0.6 1.7 0.6

Memo:

OECD 73.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing excl. China 19.0 118.7 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing oil exporters 2.8 171.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Developing non-oil exporters 19.0 108.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.8 Ex ch an ge Rates (USD/L CU)(annual percent change except m o nthly data which is change o ver prev io us m o nth a/)

23

October 17, 2012


World 4.8 2.8 3.3 4.7 4.5 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.0

High - in come cou n tries 3.3 1.1 2.1 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.5 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.6 2.7Industrial countries 3.2 0.8 1.8 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7

United States 3.8 -0.3 1.6 3.2 3.3 2.8 1.9 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.7 ..Japan 1.4 -1.3 -0.7 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.4 -0.5 ..Euro Area 3.3 0.2 1.5 2.6 2.8 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.4United Kindgom 3.6 2.2 3.3 4.5 4.7 3.5 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.6 2.5 ..

Other high income 6.1 0.8 1.8 3.3 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.7Hong Kong (China) 4.3 0.6 2.3 5.3 5.7 5.2 4.2 2.7 3.6 1.8 3.9 ..Singapore 6.5 0.6 2.8 5.2 5.6 4.9 5.3 3.8 5.3 4.0 3.9 ..Taiwan (China) 3.5 -0.9 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.6 3.0 1.8 2.5 3.5 3.0

Dev elopin g cou n tries 10.4 3.6 4.4 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.0East Asia and Pacific 9.5 1.5 4.1 5.4 4.7 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.7 3.5

China 5.8 -0.7 3.3 5.4 4.6 3.8 2.9 1.9 2.2 1.8 2.0 1.9Indonesia 9.5 4.8 5.1 5.4 4.1 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.3Thailand 5.5 -0.8 3.3 3.8 4.0 3.3 2.6 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.7 3.4Malaysia 5.4 0.6 1.6 3.2 3.2 2.2 1.7 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.4 ..

Europe and Central Asia 10.4 2.7 5.7 6.5 4.3 2.4 1.4 2.1 1.2 1.9 2.4 1.6Russian Federation 14.1 11.6 6.9 8.4 6.6 3.9 3.8 6.0 4.3 5.6 5.9 6.6Turkey 10.4 6.2 8.6 6.5 9.2 10.5 9.4 9.1 8.9 9.1 8.9 9.2Poland 4.3 3.8 2.7 4.2 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.1 3.8 3.8Czech Republic 6.3 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 3.6 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.2 3.4 3.4

Latin America and Caribbean 8.8 3.3 4.2 6.2 5.7 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.6 4.3 4.3 4.5Brazil 5.7 4.9 5.0 6.6 6.7 5.7 5.0 5.3 4.9 5.2 5.3 5.3Mexico 5.1 5.3 4.2 3.4 3.5 3.9 3.9 4.6 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.8Argentina 8.6 6.3 10.5 9.8 9.6 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0Colombia 7.0 4.2 2.3 3.4 3.9 3.5 3.4 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1 3.1

Middle East and North Africa 13.7 3.5 4.4 4.9 5.2 7.6 7.7 6.2 6.6 6.4 6.0 6.0Saudi Arabia 9.9 5.1 5.3 5.0 5.2 5.4 5.1 3.4 4.9 4.0 .. ..Iran 25.5 13.5 10.1 20.6 22.1 21.5 23.0 25.0 25.1 27.0 .. ..Algeria 0.1 5.8 3.9 4.5 5.2 9.1 9.5 7.5 8.6 8.1 .. ..

South Asia 10.9 10.8 10.0 9.6 8.3 7.2 9.2 9.3 10.0 9.8 9.3 8.8India 8.4 10.8 12.0 8.9 8.3 7.2 10.2 9.4 10.2 9.9 10.1 ..Pakistan 20.3 12.2 12.9 11.9 10.3 10.6 11.6 9.2 11.3 9.7 9.1 8.8Bangladesh 8.9 5.4 8.1 10.3 11.2 10.6 9.2 7.8 8.6 8.1 7.9 7.5Sri Lanka 22.6 3.5 6.2 6.7 4.9 3.9 7.5 9.6 9.3 10.0 9.6 9.1

Sub-Saharan Africa .. 7.5 4.0 5.4 5.9 5.8 6.8 6.5 6.5 7.4 6.2 ..South Africa .. 7.1 4.3 5.0 6.1 6.1 5.7 4.7 5.5 4.9 5.0 ..Nigeria 11.6 11.5 13.7 10.8 10.4 12.1 12.8 11.6 12.9 13.0 11.8 ..

Memo: 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.8OECD 3.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 3.2 2.8 2.4 2.5 4.6 4.7 4.5 4.3Developing excl. China .. 3.7 4.4 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.7 4.6 5.8 5.7 5.4 4.8Developing oil exporters 12.0 5.4 5.0 5.4 5.3 5.6 5.1 6.0 4.3 4.0 3.8 3.7Developing non-oil exporters 10.3 3.3 4.3 5.9 5.6 5.0 4.6 3.9 .. .. .. ..Asian high tech exporters .. .. .. .. 0.0 0.0 0.0

Table A.9 Global Inflation(annual percent change; seasonally adjusted a/)

a/ The CPI aggregates are the medians of the growth rates.

24

October 17, 2012

Weights 2011 2012 20121995 2009 2010 2011 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Jun Jul Aug Sep

World 100.0High - in come cou n tries b 82.8 0.44 -1.45 -3.33 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries 80.6 0.44 -1.44 -3.32 .. .. .. ..United States (US Federal funds rate) 25.5 0.16 1.93 0.10 0.08 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.13 0.15Japan (Discount Rate) 18.4 0.30 0.70 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30Euro Area (Eurosys main refi rate-minimum bid) 24.5 .. 3.89 .. 1.31 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 .. ..United Kingdom (Clearing bank's base rate) 3.9 0.65 4.67 0.50 2.50 3.50 4.50 5.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50

Other high income 2.2 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (Discount rate) 0.5 0.50 3.13 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.50Singapore (MAS Interbank 1 month rate) 0.3 0.45 1.15 0.30 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.44 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31Taiwan (Interbank swap overnight rate) 0.9 0.12 1.93 0.34 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.11 0.51 0.45 0.39 0.39

Dev elopin g cou n tries 17.2East Asia and Pacific 4.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China (Lending rate, 6m to 1y) 2.4 5.31 7.18 6.34 6.56 6.56 6.50 6.02 6.37 6.06 6.00 6.00Indonesia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.7 8.19 9.18 6.54 5.58 4.54 4.39 4.86 4.62 4.75 4.89 4.92Thailand (14day Bilateral Repo Rate) 0.6 1.40 1.47 2.95 3.43 3.06 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00Malaysia (Interbank overnight rate) 0.3 2.11 4.48 2.89 2.98 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97 2.97

Europe and Central Asia 3.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation (Discount (Refin.)) 1.2 11.38 10.87 8.12 8.23 8.00 8.00 8.05 8.00 8.00 8.00 8.14Turkey (Interbank 1 week average) 0.6 9.71 17.05 7.93 9.98 10.27 10.65 7.03 10.56 8.68 6.59 5.82Poland (Interbank 2 week) 0.4 3.62 5.88 4.19 4.53 4.46 4.58 4.73 4.74 4.72 4.75 4.73Czech Republic (Repo rate 2 weeks) 0.2 1.53 3.49 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.75 0.50 0.74 0.50 0.50 0.50

Latin America and Caribbean 5.8 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Brazil (SELIC Target rate) 2.4 10.15 12.45 11.75 11.44 10.41 8.98 7.88 8.50 8.18 7.96 7.50Mexico (CETES 91 day closing) 1.0 5.52 7.88 4.35 4.40 4.43 4.40 4.33 4.45 4.41 4.32 4.27Argentina (30 Day deposit) 0.9 11.59 11.43 10.78 13.96 12.58 11.55 12.08 11.65 12.02 12.28 11.94Colombia (Fixed Term Deposit) 0.3 6.28 9.68 4.16 4.89 5.22 5.45 5.40 5.43 5.43 5.43 5.34

Middle East and North Africa 1.4 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Saudi Arabia (Interbank 3m rate) 0.4 0.81 2.89 0.69 0.71 0.83 0.91 0.95 0.92 0.94 0.95 ..Egypt (IMF discount rate) 0.2 9.00 10.17 8.75 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50 9.50Algeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 .. 4.00 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

South Asia 1.6 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India (Bank deposit 365+ days) 1.2 8.90 7.90 8.76 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00 9.00Pakistan (Repo 7-15 day) 0.2 12.12 10.63 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh (Bank Rate) 0.1 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 ..Sri Lanka (Central bank repurchase) 0.0 8.93 10.50 7.01 7.00 7.32 7.74 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75 7.75

Sub-Saharan Africa 1.0 .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa (Repo rate) 0.5 8.39 11.61 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.11 5.50 5.32 5.00 5.00Nigeria (IMF discount rate) 0.1 .. 9.85 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Table A.10 Global Central Bank Interest Rates(percentage a/)

a/ Monthly figures are simple averages of the daily figures; except for the latest month, the figure reported for the

latest month is the value on the date the data has been reported (which is the last daily observation one day

before the note becomes available).

25

October 17, 2012


World 91 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..High - in come cou n tries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Industrial countries .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..United States 89 83 99 111 109 119 .. .. 111 113 116 119Japan 84 62 68 68 58 61 58 58 56 57 58 58Euro Area 99 222 299 332 244 270 .. .. 235 245 257 269United Kindgom 88 65 78 84 70 75 73 77 70 72 75 79

Other high incomea .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Hong Kong (China) .. 121 156 160 126 139 135 138 139 144 149 154Singapore 80 4 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5Taiwan (China) 72 74 95 104 73 80 77 76 76 76 78 81

Dev elopin g cou n tries a,b 156 176 233 245 183 202 189 189 182 186 192 196East Asia and Pacificc 123 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

China 118 182 218 211 180 200 190 184 160 161 164 164Indonesia 207 356 582 683 469 488 467 471 395 416 428 431Thailand 188 201 306 382 259 298 305 311 264 275 280 289Malaysia 116 141 193 223 184 202 199 203 206 212 216 216

Europe and Central Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Russian Federation 525 259 356 406 334 376 332 334 306 323 336 352Turkey 87 93 147 131 90 97 96 108 89 96 102 105Poland 168 132 175 187 123 128 119 124 124 125 133 142Czech Republic 354 577 601 622 461 480 440 442 482 473 511 537

Latin America and Caribbean 203 291 394 397 314 353 315 312 306 318 325 331Brazil 199 317 419 405 324 368 309 298 287 294 306 310Mexico 193 229 315 349 288 316 313 337 322 354 357 365Argentina 104 101 161 182 117 116 68 58 61 63 64 64

Middle East and North Africa .. 164 220 237 179 197 184 189 174 180 188 193Egypt 213 354 426 309 189 220 224 247 202 220 232 257

South Asia .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..India 198 242 348 326 216 229 208 212 222 230 235 248Pakistan 241 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..Bangladesh .. 447 670 524 525 426 485 432 463 428 434 465Sri Lanka 229 .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..

Sub-Saharan Africa .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. .. ..South Africa 216 218 293 325 256 282 271 277 251 255 265 266

Table A.11 Stock Markets(indices, year 2000=100)

a/ Average for Developing countries and Other High Income countries is for the period

1995-2002

Note: Quarterly and Monthly data is constructed from daily data by taking the last

observation for the month. Annual data is the average over 12 months.

b/ Aggregates defined by IFC/S&P

c/ East Asia Pacific including South Asia

26

m anufacturing purchasing m anage rs inde x (p m...

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