Low

y In

stit

ute

Pap

er 2

8

con

fro

nti

ng

th

e h

ydra

BIG

PR

OB

LEM

S W

ITH

SM

ALL

WA

RS

Mar

k O

'Nei

ll

Firs

t pub

lishe

d fo

rLo

wy

Inst

itut

e fo

r In

tern

atio

nal P

olic

y 20

09

PO B

ox 1

02 D

oubl

e B

ay N

ew S

outh

Wal

es 1

360

Aus

tral

iaw

ww

.long

med

ia.c

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uin

fo@

long

med

ia.c

om.a

uT

el. (

+61

2)

9362

844

1

Low

y In

stit

ute

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Pol

icy

© 20

09A

BN

40

102

792

174

All

righ

ts r

eser

ved.

Wit

hout

lim

itin

g th

e ri

ghts

und

er c

opyr

ight

res

erve

d ab

ove,

no

part

of

this

pub

licat

ion

may

be

repr

oduc

ed, s

tore

d in

or

intr

oduc

ed in

to a

ret

riev

al s

yste

m,

or tr

ansm

itte

d in

any

form

or

by a

ny m

eans

(in

clud

ing

but n

ot li

mit

ed to

ele

ctro

nic,

m

echa

nica

l, ph

otoc

opyi

ng, o

r re

cord

ing)

, wit

hout

the

prio

r w

ritt

en p

erm

issi

on o

f the

co

pyri

ght o

wne

r.

Cov

er d

esig

n by

Lon

guev

ille

Med

ia/N

ina

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lsen

Typ

eset

by

Long

uevi

lle M

edia

in E

spri

t Boo

k 10

/13

Nat

iona

l Lib

rary

of A

ustr

alia

Cat

alog

uing

-in-P

ublic

atio

n en

try

Aut

hor:

O'N

eill,

Mar

k.T

itle

: Con

fron

ting

the

hydr

a : b

ig p

robl

ems

wit

h sm

all w

ars

/ M

ark

O'N

eill.

Edi

tion

: 1st

ed.

ISB

N: 9

7819

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4391

(pb

k.)

Seri

es: L

owy

Inst

itut

e Pa

per

; 28.

Not

es: B

iblio

grap

hy.

Subj

ects

: Cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy--A

ustr

alia

. O

pera

tion

al r

eadi

ness

(M

ilita

ry s

cien

ce)

Aus

tral

ia--D

efen

ses

Aus

tral

ia--M

ilita

ry p

olic

y.A

ustr

alia

--Str

ateg

ic a

spec

ts.

Oth

er A

utho

rs/C

ontr

ibut

ors:

Low

y In

stit

ute

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Pol

icy.

Dew

ey N

umbe

r: 3

55.0

3359

4

Prin

ted

and

boun

d in

Aus

tral

ia u

sing

fibr

e su

pplie

d fr

om p

lant

atio

n or

sus

tain

ably

m

anag

ed fo

rest

s. I

nks

used

in th

is b

ook

are

vege

tabl

e ba

sed

(soy

or

linse

ed o

il).

Mar

k O

’Nei

ll w

as t

he i

naug

ural

Chi

ef o

f A

rmy

Fello

w

at

the

Low

y In

stit

ute

for

Inte

rnat

iona

l Po

licy.

M

ark

is a

Lie

uten

ant

Col

onel

in

the

Aus

tral

ian

Arm

y w

ith

25

yea

rs se

rvic

e. H

e ha

s had

ope

rati

onal

serv

ice

in S

omal

ia,

Moz

ambi

que

and

Iraq

, whe

re h

e w

as S

enio

r A

dvis

or a

t the

M

ulti

-Nat

iona

l For

ce Ir

aq’s

Cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy C

ente

r fo

r E

xcel

lenc

e.

Mar

k ha

s w

orke

d on

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy i

ssue

s w

ith

the

Aus

tral

ian,

US,

Bri

tish

, Sou

th A

fric

an a

nd I

raqi

Arm

ies;

in

clud

ing

field

wor

k an

d te

achi

ng a

bout

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy

from

the

sm

all t

eam

to

Cor

ps H

eadq

uart

ers

leve

l. D

urin

g 20

07 a

nd 2

008,

he

was

a m

embe

r of

the

edi

tori

al p

anel

th

at p

rodu

ced

the

Aus

tral

ian

Arm

y’s

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y do

ctri

ne.

vivi

i

Ded

icat

ion

To

the

sold

iers

of

the

Aus

tral

ian

Arm

y w

ho h

ave

foug

ht, a

nd c

onti

nue

to fi

ght,

Aus

tral

ia’s

war

s.

viii

ix

Dis

clai

mer

The

vie

ws

expr

esse

d he

rein

are

the

aut

hor’

s an

d no

t ne

cess

arily

th

ose

of t

he A

ustr

alia

n A

rmy

or t

he D

epar

tmen

t of

Def

ence

. T

he

Com

mon

wea

lth

of A

ustr

alia

will

not

be

lega

lly r

espo

nsib

le in

con

trac

t, to

rt o

r ot

herw

ise

for

any

stat

emen

t mad

e in

this

pub

licat

ion.

Exec

utiv

e su

mm

ary

Aus

tral

ia n

eeds

to

wor

ry a

lit

tle

less

abo

ut t

he s

mal

l pr

oble

ms

it h

as

wit

h bi

g w

ars,

and

add

ress

som

e of

the

big

pro

blem

s th

at i

t ha

s w

ith

smal

l war

s.

Smal

l w

ars,

suc

h as

in

surg

enci

es,

beca

me

the

mos

t pr

eval

ent

form

of

con

flict

glo

bally

in

the

mid

dle

of t

he 2

0th

cen

tury

. The

200

9 A

ustr

alia

n D

efen

ce W

hite

Pap

er p

redi

cts

that

in

tras

tate

con

flict

w

ill

rem

ain

the

mos

t co

mm

on f

orm

of

war

in

the

per

iod

to 2

030.

A

ustr

alia

has

a lo

ng

reco

rd o

f in

volv

emen

t in

suc

h co

nfli

cts,

alt

houg

h pa

rtic

ipat

ion

has

alw

ays

been

a m

atte

r of

cho

ice.

But

the

fac

t th

at

thes

e ar

e w

ars

of c

hoic

e fo

r A

ustr

alia

, an

d th

at i

t fr

eque

ntl

y on

ly

play

s a

bit

part

, doe

s n

ot m

ean

tha

t th

ey a

re in

sign

ifica

nt

in c

ost

and

poli

tica

l im

pact

. An

d hi

stor

y de

mon

stra

tes

that

sm

all w

ars

of c

hoic

e ca

n b

ecom

e w

ars

of n

eces

sity

. A

ustr

alia

’s i

nte

rest

as

a de

moc

rati

c m

iddl

e po

wer

tha

t ch

oose

s to

en

gage

in

co

unte

rin

surg

ency

co

nfli

cts

requ

ires

th

e de

velo

pmen

t of

sou

nd

stra

tegi

c po

licy

appr

oach

es a

nd

capa

bilit

ies

to d

efea

t th

e in

surg

ency

Hyd

ra.

Des

pite

thi

s, t

he f

ocus

of

Aus

tral

ia’s

nat

ion

al

stra

tegi

c po

licie

s ha

s re

mai

ned

on

con

ven

tion

al,

inte

rsta

te w

arfa

re.

Exa

mpl

es f

rom

Aus

tral

ian

exp

erie

nce

hig

hlig

ht t

he d

iffic

ulti

es t

hat

aris

e fr

om a

dopt

ing

a pr

imar

ily ta

ctic

al a

ppro

ach

to c

oun

teri

nsu

rgen

cy

and

the

endu

rin

g n

atur

e of

cou

nte

rin

surg

ency

as

a po

licy

prob

lem

. In

surg

ency

its

elf

is n

ot a

tac

tica

l ac

tion

— i

t is

a h

olis

tic

stra

tegy

, ai

med

at

a po

litic

al o

utco

me.

So

coun

teri

ng

insu

rgen

cy m

ust

be a

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

xxi

EX

EC

UT

IVE

SU

MM

AR

Y

stra

tegi

c ac

tion

, ir

resp

ecti

ve o

f w

heth

er c

arri

ed o

ut b

y a

host

nat

ion

or a

mid

dle

pow

er a

ctin

g as

a m

embe

r of

a c

oalit

ion

. T

his

pape

r id

enti

fies

five

effe

ctiv

e w

ays

for

a de

moc

rati

c m

iddl

e po

wer

suc

h as

Aus

tral

ia t

o co

ndu

ct c

oun

teri

nsu

rgen

cy:

popu

lati

on

focu

s,

an

indi

rect

ap

proa

ch,

pre-

empt

ion

, in

form

atio

n

acti

viti

es

and

the

use

of a

dapt

ive

mea

sure

s. T

hese

pro

vide

a f

ram

ewor

k fo

r th

e de

velo

pmen

t of

an

app

ropr

iate

cou

nte

rin

surg

ency

str

ateg

y fo

r A

ustr

alia

’s c

ircu

mst

ance

s.E

ight

pol

icy

reco

mm

enda

tion

s ar

e m

ade

to s

uppo

rt th

e de

velo

pmen

t of

a s

trat

egic

app

roac

h to

Aus

tral

ia’s

invo

lvem

ent i

n co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

confl

icts

:

• D

efen

ce W

hite

Pap

ers

mus

t pr

ovid

e ad

equa

te p

olic

y gu

idan

ce,

rath

er t

han

narr

ativ

e, a

bout

Aus

tral

ia’s

ong

oing

con

cern

wit

h co

unte

rins

urge

ncy.

A

po

licy

fram

ewor

k m

ust

be

stip

ulat

ed

(a

popu

lati

on

focu

s,

an

indi

rect

ap

proa

ch,

pre-

empt

ion,

in

form

atio

n ac

tivi

ties

and

the

use

of

adap

tive

mea

sure

s) t

o in

form

Aus

tral

ian

nati

onal

pol

icy

rela

ting

to

the

cond

uct

of

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y.•

Dev

elop

men

t an

d pu

blic

atio

n of

a

who

le-o

f-go

vern

men

t co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

doct

rine

.•

Iden

tific

atio

n, t

rain

ing,

edu

cati

on a

nd d

eplo

ymen

t of

a c

adre

fr

om a

cros

s re

leva

nt g

over

nmen

t de

part

men

ts t

o en

able

a t

rue

who

le-o

f- g

over

nmen

t ap

proa

ch t

o co

unte

rins

urge

ncy.

Im

plic

it

in t

his

reco

mm

enda

tion

is

the

requ

irem

ent

to p

repa

re s

uch

a gr

oup

for

poss

ible

em

ploy

men

t al

ongs

ide

Aus

tral

ian

Def

ence

Fo

rce,

Coa

litio

n an

d A

fgha

n N

atio

nal G

over

nmen

t org

anis

atio

ns

in A

fgha

nist

an.

• C

reat

ion

of a

nat

iona

l co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

cent

re o

f ex

celle

nce

that

is

focu

sed

on w

hole

-of-

gove

rnm

ent,

regi

onal

and

coa

litio

n ap

proa

ches

.•

Dev

elop

men

t of

mor

e ro

bust

edu

cati

ve m

echa

nism

s to

sup

port

de

cisi

ons m

ade

abou

t cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy b

y th

e N

atio

nal S

ecur

ity

Com

mit

tee

of C

abin

et a

nd h

ighe

r po

litic

al d

ecis

ion-

mak

ers.

• Fu

rthe

r de

velo

pmen

t of

th

e de

fenc

e ca

pabi

litie

s re

quir

ed

for

succ

essf

ul c

ount

erin

surg

ency

cam

paig

ning

. K

ey a

reas

of

inve

stm

ent

mus

t be

hu

man

in

telli

genc

e,

elec

tron

ic

war

fare

, su

rvei

llanc

e,

psyc

holo

gica

l w

arfa

re,

info

rmat

ion

oper

atio

ns,

civi

l-mili

tary

aff

airs

and

unc

onve

ntio

nal w

arfa

re.

• A

ustr

alia

m

ust

impr

ove

upon

it

s ab

ility

to

as

sist

fr

iend

ly

fore

ign

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y fo

rces

. Thi

s sh

ould

be

done

thr

ough

de

velo

pmen

t of

the

cap

abili

ty t

o tr

ain,

men

tor

and,

if n

eces

sary

, le

ad in

dige

nous

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy fo

rces

. Suc

h a

capa

bilit

y w

ill

have

uti

lity

far

beyo

nd t

he c

urre

nt fi

ght

in A

fgha

nist

an a

nd w

ill

assi

st A

ustr

alia

wit

h an

indi

rect

app

roac

h to

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy.

• A

gr

eate

r ro

le

for

the

Aus

tral

ian

Fede

ral

Polic

e in

co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

cam

paig

ns,

begi

nnin

g w

ith

the

pres

ent

cam

paig

n in

Afg

hani

stan

.

xiii

Con

tent

sD

edic

atio

n vi

iD

iscl

aim

er

viii

Exe

cuti

ve s

umm

ary

ixLi

st o

f box

es, fi

gure

s an

d ta

bles

xv

List

of a

cron

yms

xvA

ckno

wle

dgem

ents

xv

ii

Ch

apte

r 1:

Set

tin

g th

e sc

ene

1A

im

1T

he H

ydra

2

Aus

tral

ia a

s a

case

stu

dy

2O

utlin

e an

d sc

ope

5M

eani

ngs

mat

ter

5In

surg

ency

and

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy d

efine

d 6

The

issu

e of

terr

oris

m a

nd in

surg

ency

7

On

the

asym

met

ric

natu

re o

f ins

urge

ncy

8

Ch

apte

r 2:

Un

ders

tan

din

g in

surg

ency

an

d co

un

teri

nsu

rgen

cy

9In

trod

ucti

on

9W

ar, b

ut d

iffe

rent

11

Vio

lenc

e an

d cr

imin

alit

y 14

The

vit

alit

y of

idea

s an

d na

rrat

ive

17H

uman

and

soc

ial i

ssue

s 20

Mat

eria

l iss

ues

and

prac

tica

litie

s 29

xiv

xv

Ch

apte

r 3:

Th

e A

ust

rali

an e

xam

ple:

an

en

duri

ng

poli

cy p

robl

em

37In

trod

ucti

on

37A

pro

blem

in th

e pa

st

38A

pro

blem

in th

e pr

esen

t 39

A p

robl

em in

the

futu

re

43C

osts

and

ris

ks

46Po

licy

is in

adeq

uate

49

Con

clus

ion

52

Ch

apte

r 4:

Def

eati

ng

the

Hyd

ra: a

str

ateg

ic a

ppro

ach

55

Intr

oduc

tion

55

Polic

y is

kin

g 56

Stra

tegy

63

Way

s 66

Mea

ns

75C

oncl

usio

n 83

Pol

icy

reco

mm

enda

tion

s

85

Not

es

93B

iblio

grap

hy

115

Low

y In

stit

ute

Pape

rs: o

ther

titl

es in

the

seri

es

125

List

of b

oxes

, figu

res a

nd ta

bles

Figu

re 1

M

ap s

how

ing

loca

tion

s of

Aus

tral

ian

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y ca

se s

tudi

es

Figu

re 2

R

egio

nal m

ap s

how

ing

curr

ent i

nsur

genc

ies

Box

1

Pre-

Fede

rati

on c

onfli

cts

Box

2

The

Sec

ond

Boe

r W

arB

ox 3

T

he M

alay

an E

mer

genc

yB

ox 4

C

onfr

onta

tion

Box

5

The

Vie

tnam

War

Box

6

Bou

gain

ville

Box

7

Tim

or-L

este

Box

8

The

Sol

omon

Isl

ands

Box

9

Iraq

Tab

le 1

A

ustr

alia

n ex

pend

itur

e, A

$ m

illio

n, s

elec

t con

flict

s,

1999

-200

9 Lis

t of a

cron

yms

AD

F A

ustr

alia

n D

efen

ce F

orce

AFP

A

ustr

alia

n Fe

dera

l Pol

ice

AN

ZA

C

Aus

tral

ian

and

New

Zea

land

Arm

y C

orps

ASE

AN

A

ssoc

iati

on o

f Sou

th E

ast A

sian

Nat

ions

Aus

AID

A

ustr

alia

n A

genc

y fo

r In

tern

atio

nal D

evel

opm

ent

AQ

I al

-Qae

da in

Ira

qB

CE

B

efor

e th

e C

hris

tian

era

BIG

B

ouga

invi

lle I

nter

im G

over

nmen

tB

RA

B

ouga

invi

lle R

evol

utio

nary

Arm

yC

NA

S C

ente

r fo

r a

New

Am

eric

an S

ecur

ity

CO

RD

S C

ivil

oper

atio

ns a

nd r

ural

dev

elop

men

t sup

port

CR

A

Con

zinc

Rio

Tin

to A

ustr

alia

DFA

T

Dep

artm

ent o

f For

eign

Aff

airs

and

Tra

de

xvi

xvii

GW

OT

G

loba

l War

on

Ter

ror

HN

H

ost N

atio

nID

G

Inte

rnat

iona

l Dep

loym

ent G

roup

INT

ER

FET

Int

erna

tion

al F

orce

Eas

t Tim

orIO

In

form

atio

n op

erat

ions

ISA

F In

tern

atio

nal S

ecur

ity

Forc

e A

fgha

nist

anJA

M

Jais

h A

l Mah

di

LTT

E

Libe

rati

on T

iger

s of

Tam

il E

lam

MC

P M

alay

an C

omm

unis

t Par

tyM

RLA

M

alay

an R

aces

Lib

erat

ion

Arm

yM

NF-

I M

ulti

nati

onal

For

ce I

raq

NSA

N

atio

nal S

ecur

ity

Adv

iser

NSC

C

Nat

iona

l Sec

urit

y C

omm

itte

e of

Cab

inet

NSS

N

atio

nal S

ecur

ity

Stat

emen

tO

AS

Org

anis

atio

n A

rmée

Sec

rète

OE

F-P

Ope

rati

on E

ndur

ing

Free

dom

–Phi

lippi

nes

OM

S O

ffice

of t

he M

arty

r Sa

drPI

RA

Pr

ovis

iona

l Iri

sh R

epub

lican

Arm

yPM

&C

D

epar

tmen

t of P

rim

e M

inis

ter

and

Cab

inet

PMG

Pe

ace

Mon

itor

ing

Gro

upPR

T

Prov

inci

al R

econ

stru

ctio

n T

eam

RA

AF

Roy

al A

ustr

alia

n A

ir F

orce

RA

N

Roy

al A

ustr

alia

n N

avy

RA

R

Roy

al A

ustr

alia

n R

egim

ent

TM

G

Tru

ce M

onit

orin

g G

roup

V

C

Vie

tcon

gW

OG

W

hole

-of-

gove

rnm

ent

Ack

now

ledg

emen

ts

Thi

s pa

per

wou

ld n

ot h

ave

happ

ened

wit

hout

the

Chi

ef o

f Arm

y V

isit

ing

Fello

w p

osit

ion

at th

e Lo

wy

Inst

itut

e fo

r Int

erna

tion

al P

olic

y. I

am g

rate

ful

to t

he C

hair

man

, M

r Fr

ank

Low

y A

C;

the

Inst

itut

e’s

first

Exe

cuti

ve

Dir

ecto

r, M

r A

llan

Gyn

gell

AO

; Pro

fess

or A

lan

Dup

ont

and

Lieu

tena

nt

Gen

eral

(ret

d) P

rofe

ssor

Pet

er L

eahy

AC

for

the

oppo

rtun

ity

to h

ave

been

th

e in

augu

ral A

rmy

Fello

w. T

hank

s to

Pro

fess

or B

ob O

’Nei

ll A

O fo

r hi

s su

ppor

t. M

y ed

itor

Ror

y M

edca

lf w

as p

atie

nt w

hile

CO

IN p

ract

ice

and

teac

hing

supp

lant

ed C

OIN

wri

ting

for a

cons

ider

able

whi

le. I

ack

now

ledg

e hi

s su

gges

tion

s an

d co

ntri

buti

on t

o th

is p

aper

. Pr

ofes

sor

Jeff

ery

Gre

y of

the

Aus

tral

ian

Def

ence

For

ce A

cade

my

has

been

und

erst

andi

ng a

nd

supp

orti

ve d

urin

g th

e di

stra

ctio

n fr

om m

y th

esis

. D

r D

anie

l Mar

ston

fro

m t

he A

NU

and

the

Roy

al M

ilita

ry A

cade

my

Sand

hurs

t an

d D

r St

even

M

etz

from

th

e U

S A

rmy

War

C

olle

ge

prov

ided

inva

luab

le p

eer

revi

ew, a

dvic

e an

d su

ppor

t. M

y th

anks

als

o to

Li

eute

nant

Col

onel

Mal

colm

McG

rego

r fo

r th

e va

luab

le o

ppor

tuni

ties

an

d co

ntac

ts t

hat

his

supp

ort

brou

ght

to m

y re

sear

ch.

Any

err

ors

or

omis

sion

s ar

e m

y ow

n.I

ackn

owle

dge

and

appr

ecia

te t

he a

dvic

e, o

pini

on, s

uppo

rt, t

ime

or

cons

truc

tive

arg

umen

ts t

hat

the

follo

win

g pe

ople

off

ered

at

vari

ous

tim

es d

urin

g th

e de

velo

pmen

t of

thi

s pa

per:

Ale

x A

lder

son,

McG

ill

Ale

xand

er,

Stev

e A

lexa

nder

, D

avid

B

enes

t, D

avid

B

etz,

St

ephe

n B

iddl

e, J

ohn

Bla

xlan

d, M

att B

rum

ley,

Fre

d C

ale,

Ang

us C

ampb

ell,

Pete

r C

halk

, Sco

tt C

linga

n, E

dwar

d C

ohen

, Elio

t C

ohen

, Pat

Col

lins,

Con

rad

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

xviii

1

Cra

ne,

Mic

k C

raig

, A

lex

Cro

wth

er,

Mik

e E

vans

, Ph

ilip

Fran

kel,

Nat

e Fr

eier

, N

eil

Gre

et,

Rus

s H

art,

Chr

is H

olsh

ek,

Jan

Hor

vath

, E

dwar

d H

oust

on,

Ric

hard

Iro

n, D

arry

l K

elly

, Ju

stin

Kel

ly,

Dav

id K

ilcul

len,

Fr

ed K

raw

chuk

, M

ark

Lang

don,

Mic

k M

ahy,

Pet

er M

anso

or,

Dav

e M

arko

wsk

i, R

ory

Med

calf

, D

oug

Mac

dona

ld,

JJ M

cCue

n, J

im M

olan

, V.

N

adka

rni,

John

N

agl,

Mit

ch

O’D

wye

r,

Dou

g O

lliva

nt,

Milt

on

Osb

orne

, Joh

n Pa

palit

sas,

Nat

e Pu

lliam

, Jef

f Se

ngel

man

, Sar

ah S

ewal

l, A

ndre

w S

hear

er, M

ark

Smet

hurs

t, Jo

seph

M. S

mit

h, N

iel S

mit

h, M

ark

Smyt

he,

the

staf

f at

the

Lan

d W

arfa

re S

tudi

es C

entr

e, H

ew S

trac

han,

Ji

m T

erri

e, R

ob T

horn

ton,

Bru

ce W

illis

and

Stu

art Y

eam

an. T

hank

s.Sp

ecia

l th

anks

to

Nic

ky B

aker

, Jo

Bot

tche

r, B

ill B

owte

ll, A

ntho

ny

Bub

alo,

Mal

colm

Coo

k, M

ark

Thi

rlw

ell

and

Kyl

ie W

illia

ms

for

thei

r fr

iend

ship

, sup

port

and

adv

ice

duri

ng m

y ti

me

at th

e Lo

wy

Inst

itut

e.Ja

mie

, Pap

s and

Tod

— y

our p

rofe

ssio

nalis

m, t

eam

wor

k an

d m

ates

hip

in th

e fie

ld r

epre

sent

ed th

e be

st o

f the

Aus

tral

ian

Arm

y.

Fina

lly, m

y lo

ve a

nd g

rati

tude

to m

y fa

mily

: Nic

, Gra

ce a

nd R

oy. T

his

pape

r co

uld

not h

ave

happ

ened

wit

hout

you

.

Cha

pter

1Se

ttin

g th

e sc

ene

Smal

l w

ars,

1 ty

pifie

d by

in

surg

ency

, be

cam

e th

e m

ost

com

mon

fo

rm o

f co

nfli

ct g

loba

lly d

urin

g th

e la

tter

hal

f of

the

20t

h ce

ntu

ry.2

Pa

rado

xica

lly,

stra

tegi

c po

licy

amon

gst

Wes

tern

nat

ion

s du

rin

g th

e sa

me

peri

od h

as d

ispr

oved

that

‘nat

ion

s pr

epar

e fo

r th

e la

st w

ar r

athe

r th

an th

e n

ext’

, as

it h

as m

ain

tain

ed a

focu

s on

con

ven

tion

al, i

nte

rsta

te

war

fare

. Rat

her

than

dev

elop

ing

and

impl

emen

tin

g su

itab

le s

trat

egic

po

licy

appr

oach

es t

o co

unte

rin

g in

surg

ency

, th

e re

cord

sug

gest

s th

at

stat

es h

ave

repe

ated

ly d

efau

lted

to

trea

tin

g th

e pr

oble

m a

s a

low

er

orde

r or

tac

tica

l is

sue

of r

elat

ivel

y lit

tle

endu

rin

g co

nse

quen

ce. S

uch

an a

ppro

ach

fails

to

acco

unt

for

the

true

an

d en

duri

ng

nat

ure

of

insu

rgen

cy.

Fro

m A

lger

ia t

o A

fgha

nis

tan

it

has

been

fra

ught

wit

h fa

ilure

an

d cr

eate

s co

nti

nui

ng

risk

.

Aim

The

aim

of

this

pap

er i

s to

ide

ntif

y an

d de

scri

be p

olic

y im

plic

atio

ns

of a

str

ateg

ic a

ppro

ach

to c

ount

erin

surg

ency

, wit

h pa

rtic

ular

ref

eren

ce

to A

ustr

alia

’s i

nvol

vem

ent

in s

uch

confl

icts

. It

will

thu

s fo

cus

on t

he

stra

tegi

c le

vel

of a

naly

sis:

3 th

at i

s, t

he l

evel

whe

re n

atio

nal

obje

ctiv

es

are

iden

tifie

d an

d th

eir

achi

evem

ent

is p

lann

ed t

hrou

gh c

oord

inat

ion

of a

ll th

e el

emen

ts o

f na

tion

al p

ower

. The

pre

mis

e be

hind

thi

s is

tha

t

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

23

SE

TT

ING

TH

E S

CE

NE

coun

teri

ng i

nsur

genc

y de

man

ds t

houg

ht a

nd a

ctio

n at

the

leve

l whe

re

polit

ics,

pol

icy,

str

ateg

y an

d th

eir

enab

lers

int

erac

t. G

ivin

g pr

imac

y to

ta

ctic

al a

nd o

pera

tion

al a

ctiv

itie

s to

win

sm

all

war

s an

d in

surg

ency

m

isse

s th

e cr

itic

al n

exus

bet

wee

n po

litic

s an

d po

pula

tion

tha

t lie

s at

th

e he

art

of e

very

suc

h co

nflic

t.4 U

nder

stan

ding

and

res

pond

ing

to t

he

polit

ical

‘why

’ of s

uch

war

s he

lps

illum

inat

e th

e pa

th to

thei

r re

solu

tion

. H

isto

ry h

as r

epea

tedl

y de

mon

stra

ted

that

whi

le t

hese

war

s ca

n be

lost

by

fai

lure

at

any

leve

l (ta

ctic

al, o

pera

tion

al o

r st

rate

gic)

, the

y ar

e on

ly

won

if s

uita

ble

polic

y an

d st

rate

gy is

dev

elop

ed a

nd im

plem

ente

d at

the

nati

onal

leve

l.5

Th

e H

ydra

The

myt

holo

gica

l st

ory

of t

he H

ydra

is

an a

pt m

etap

hor

for

the

com

plex

itie

s of

fig

htin

g in

surg

enci

es.

The

m

onst

er

requ

ired

it

s ad

vers

arie

s to

do

batt

le w

ith

all o

f its

man

y he

ads

at o

nce

— fo

cusi

ng o

n on

e he

ad in

vite

d le

thal

att

ack

from

the

oth

ers.

To

com

plic

ate

the

task

, cu

ttin

g of

f a

head

wou

ld c

ause

tw

o m

ore

to g

row

in

its

plac

e. L

ike

the

Hyd

ra, t

he n

atur

e of

insu

rgen

cy p

rese

nts

mul

tipl

e pr

oble

ms.

The

se a

re

inex

tric

ably

link

ed a

cros

s a ra

nge

of p

olit

ical

, soc

ieta

l and

cul

tura

l pol

icy

issu

es th

at d

efy

sim

ple

resp

onse

s. G

over

nmen

ts th

at fa

il to

und

erst

and

the

nuan

ces

of t

hese

war

s an

d at

tack

onl

y on

e m

anif

esta

tion

of

the

prob

lem

ris

k fa

ilure

.

Au

stra

lia

as a

cas

e st

udy

Thi

s pa

per

conc

entr

ates

on

Aus

tral

ia’s

exp

erie

nces

wit

h in

surg

ency

co

nflic

t. T

he A

ustr

alia

n ex

ampl

e hi

ghlig

hts

both

the

end

urin

g na

ture

of

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy a

s a

polic

y pr

oble

m a

nd t

he d

iffic

ulti

es t

hat

aris

e fr

om a

dopt

ion

of a

tac

tica

l ap

proa

ch.

It a

lso

prov

ides

a p

revi

ousl

y un

der-

exam

ined

cas

e st

udy

that

can

ass

ist

wit

h id

enti

fyin

g th

e po

licy

impl

icat

ions

of

a st

rate

gic

appr

oach

. T

he e

xam

inat

ion

of A

ustr

alia

’s

invo

lvem

ent

in n

ine

sele

cted

con

flict

s w

ill d

emon

stra

te a

cle

ar p

atte

rn

of e

ngag

emen

t in

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy.

The

abs

ence

of

a ca

se s

tudy

ab

out

Afg

hani

stan

refl

ects

the

fac

t th

at t

he A

fgha

nist

an c

onfli

ct i

s

cont

empo

rary

and

dyn

amic

and

the

his

tori

cal

reco

rd o

f A

ustr

alia

n in

volv

emen

t is

not c

ompl

ete.

Thr

ough

out t

he p

aper

, tex

t box

es c

onta

in

brie

f ou

tlin

es

of

the

Aus

tral

ian

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y ex

peri

ence

in

th

ese

nine

con

flict

s. T

hey

high

light

key

pol

icy

less

ons

sugg

este

d by

hi

stor

y. A

long

wit

h th

e di

scus

sion

in

chap

ter

thre

e, t

hey

unde

rsco

re

that

des

pite

fre

quen

t in

volv

emen

t, th

e ac

know

ledg

ed l

ikel

ihoo

d of

fu

ture

inv

olve

men

t, an

d th

e co

st a

nd r

isk

invo

lved

, A

ustr

alia

has

not

de

velo

ped

suit

able

pol

icy

and

enab

ling

func

tion

s th

at p

repa

re it

for

the

ta

sk o

f cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy.

It w

ill a

lso

beco

me

appa

rent

tha

t A

ustr

alia

’s g

eogr

aphy

, re

lati

ve

cult

ural

hom

ogen

eity

and

pol

itic

al s

tabi

lity

have

not

qua

rant

ined

it

from

hav

ing

to d

eal

wit

h in

surg

enci

es.

Thi

s is

tru

e to

day,

whe

ther

di

rect

ly t

hrou

gh A

ustr

alia

n pa

rtic

ipat

ion

in c

onfli

cts

such

as

thos

e in

Ir

aq

and

Afg

hani

stan

, or

in

dire

ctly

th

roug

h in

surg

ency

-rel

ated

pr

oble

ms

in A

ustr

alia

’s r

egio

n. W

hile

Aus

tral

ia’s

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy

expe

rien

ce is

in s

ome

way

s di

stin

ctiv

e, it

has

eno

ugh

in c

omm

on w

ith

the

expe

rien

ces

of o

ther

nat

ions

to

info

rm g

ener

al p

olic

y ap

proa

ches

to

the

issu

e.6

Und

erst

andi

ng o

f the

se c

ase

stud

ies

also

sug

gest

s th

at th

e A

ustr

alia

n re

cord

in c

ount

erin

surg

ency

is r

eally

no

bett

er t

han

that

of

any

othe

r de

velo

ped

Wes

tern

nat

ion,

whi

ch c

alls

int

o qu

esti

on w

hat

mig

ht b

e re

ferr

ed t

o as

the

‘co

ncei

t’ of

Aus

tral

ian

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y su

peri

orit

y.7

Box

1

Pre

-Fed

erat

ion

con

flic

ts

It

may

be

as

sum

ed

that

th

e fir

st

smal

l w

ars

foug

ht

by

Aus

tral

ians

occ

urre

d lo

ng b

efor

e E

urop

ean

sett

lem

ent.

The

fir

st A

ustr

alia

n sm

all w

ars

that

we

have

con

tem

pora

ry r

ecor

ds

of w

ere

thos

e of

, in

eff

ect,

colo

nial

and

im

peri

al e

xpan

sion

as

Bri

tish

col

onis

ts e

nter

ed t

he l

and

of v

ario

us i

ndig

enou

s na

tion

s.

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

45

SE

TT

ING

TH

E S

CE

NE

The

ove

rsea

s de

ploy

men

t of

Aus

tral

ian

colo

nial

for

ces

in t

he y

ears

bef

ore

Fede

rati

on w

as l

imit

ed t

o m

inor

rol

es i

n ca

mpa

igns

in v

ario

us o

utpo

sts

of th

e B

riti

sh E

mpi

re.

The

Mao

ri W

ars

wer

e th

e fir

st o

vers

eas

confl

icts

to in

volv

e th

e A

ustr

alia

n co

loni

es,

alth

ough

the

y di

d no

t in

volv

e an

y ho

mog

enou

s, d

iscr

ete

forc

e ra

ised

from

the

resi

dent

pop

ulac

e.

The

Bri

tish

tro

ops

garr

ison

ed i

n th

e A

ustr

alia

n co

loni

es

depl

oyed

to N

ew Z

eala

nd to

figh

t Mao

ri re

belli

ons i

n th

e 18

40s

and

agai

n in

the

186

0s. S

ome

2500

cit

izen

s of

the

Aus

tral

ian

colo

nies

vol

unte

ered

to

serv

e in

New

Zea

land

mili

tia

unit

s,

prim

arily

in th

e W

aika

to r

egio

n. T

hese

troo

ps s

aw li

ttle

hea

vy

fight

ing,

and

few

er th

an 2

0 w

ere

kille

d in

act

ion.

The

firs

t offi

cial

dep

loym

ent o

f a fo

rmed

bod

y of

Aus

tral

ian

colo

nial

troo

ps o

ccur

red

on 3

Mar

ch 1

885

wit

h th

e em

bark

atio

n of

an

expe

diti

onar

y fo

rce

from

the

Col

ony

of N

SW, b

ound

for

the

confl

ict

in t

he S

udan

. T

he S

udan

Con

ting

ent

com

pris

ed

two

batt

erie

s of

fiel

d ar

tille

ry a

nd a

n in

fant

ry b

atta

lion,

nu

mbe

ring

aro

und

500.

The

con

ting

ent

stay

ed o

nly

a fe

w

mon

ths,

saw

lit

tle

acti

on,

and

suff

ered

hea

vier

los

ses

on t

he

voya

ge h

ome

from

illn

ess

and

mis

adve

ntur

e th

an i

n co

mba

t. D

espi

te t

his,

the

con

ting

ent

hold

s it

s pl

ace

in A

ustr

alia

’s

mili

tary

his

tory

as

its

first

offi

cial

figh

ting

forc

e.T

he B

oxer

Reb

ellio

n of

190

0-01

was

the

fina

l co

nflic

t to

w

hich

A

ustr

alia

se

nt

sole

ly

colo

nial

fo

rces

. O

nce

agai

n,

Aus

tral

ian

forc

es s

aw li

ttle

act

ion.

Dep

loye

d in

June

190

0, th

e co

loni

al fo

rces

, whi

ch c

onsi

sted

pri

mar

ily o

f shi

ps a

nd c

omba

t pe

rson

nel f

rom

the

nava

l for

ces

of N

ew S

outh

Wal

es, V

icto

ria

and

Sout

h A

ustr

alia

, ar

rive

d in

Chi

na a

fter

the

ces

sati

on o

f m

ajor

hos

tilit

ies.

Con

sequ

entl

y, A

ustr

alia

n in

volv

emen

t w

as

limit

ed t

o m

inor

off

ensi

ves

only

, an

d no

ne o

f th

e si

x de

aths

su

stai

ned

duri

ng t

he e

xped

itio

n w

as i

n co

mba

t. B

y M

arch

19

01 t

he e

mer

genc

y ha

d al

l bu

t su

bsid

ed a

nd t

he A

ustr

alia

n fo

rces

ret

urne

d ho

me

to a

new

ly fe

dera

ted

nati

on.

Whi

le

the

pre-

fede

rati

on

cont

ribu

tion

s w

ere

gene

rally

lo

w k

ey —

Aus

tral

ian

colo

nial

for

ces

saw

lit

tle

acti

on a

nd

sust

aine

d fe

w c

asua

ltie

s —

the

y w

ere

not

wit

hout

his

tori

cal

sign

ifica

nce

or

cont

empo

rary

re

leva

nce.

T

hese

ca

mpa

igns

pr

esag

ed m

any

Aus

tral

ian

depl

oym

ents

in

the

20th

cen

tury

—

the

y w

ere

char

acte

rise

d by

Aus

tral

ian

forc

es in

the

rol

e of

a

juni

or ‘

coal

itio

n’ p

artn

er i

n br

oad

scal

e co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

cam

paig

ns,

and

Aus

tral

ian

colo

nial

com

man

ders

had

lit

tle

inpu

t int

o th

e di

rect

ion

of th

e ca

mpa

igns

.

Ou

tlin

e an

d sc

ope

At

the

outs

et i

t is

wor

th c

lari

fyin

g cr

ucia

l pa

rts

of t

he o

ften

con

fuse

d te

rmin

olog

y of

insu

rgen

cy. C

lear

defi

niti

ons

of th

e ke

y te

rms

insu

rgen

cy

and

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y ar

e vi

tal

to s

ound

thi

nkin

g on

the

sub

ject

. T

he

rest

of t

his

intr

oduc

tion

will

off

er th

ose,

alo

ng w

ith

pers

pect

ives

on

two

issu

es, t

erro

rism

and

asy

mm

etry

, oft

en c

onfu

sed

wit

h in

surg

ency

.T

he

next

ch

apte

r w

ill

exam

ine

the

natu

re

of

insu

rgen

cy

and

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y to

inf

orm

the

sub

sequ

ent

polic

y an

alys

is.

Cha

pter

th

ree

pres

ents

Aus

tral

ia’s

cir

cum

stan

ce a

s a

case

stu

dy d

emon

stra

ting

co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

as a

n en

duri

ng p

olic

y pr

oble

m. T

he c

urre

nt si

tuat

ion

will

be

asse

ssed

wit

h a

view

to h

ighl

ight

ing

opti

ons

for

a m

ore

effe

ctiv

e po

licy

appr

oach

. The

pap

er c

oncl

udes

wit

h an

alys

is o

f su

ch a

pos

sibl

e ap

proa

ch a

nd s

ome

impl

icat

ions

.K

ey c

once

pts

abou

t th

e na

ture

and

con

duct

of

insu

rgen

cy a

nd

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y w

ill b

e ex

amin

ed i

n or

der

to i

nfor

m t

he d

iscu

ssio

n of

pol

icy

obje

ctiv

es. T

his

pape

r is

not

, how

ever

, int

ende

d as

a d

efini

tive

gu

ide

to c

ount

erin

surg

ency

war

fare

.

Mea

nin

gs m

atte

r

The

defi

niti

ons

of c

ore

term

s in

dis

cuss

ing

insu

rgen

cy a

re c

onte

sted

an

d fr

eque

ntly

con

fusi

ng, ‘

as e

lusi

ve a

s th

e gu

erri

llas

them

selv

es.’8

The

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

67

SE

TT

ING

TH

E S

CE

NE

care

less

use

of

term

inol

ogy

by ‘

expe

rts’

in

new

spap

ers

and

jour

nals

, im

prec

ise

polit

ical

spe

eche

s, t

he p

oorl

y na

med

‘Glo

bal W

ar o

n T

erro

r’

and

its

succ

esso

r,

‘The

Lo

ng

War

’,9

have

co

mbi

ned

wit

h ni

ghtl

y te

levi

sion

mili

tary

bri

efing

s fr

om I

raq

and

Afg

hani

stan

to

heig

hten

m

isun

ders

tand

ing.

Tw

o is

sues

furt

her

com

plic

ate

mat

ters

. The

firs

t is

that

the

use

of th

e te

rm ‘

terr

oris

m’,

freq

uent

ly a

ssoc

iate

d w

ith

insu

rgen

cy,

is l

aden

wit

h em

otiv

e as

soci

atio

ns.

The

em

otio

nal

resp

onse

tha

t ac

ts o

f te

rror

ism

of

ten

prov

oke

can

hind

er e

ffor

ts t

o un

ders

tand

the

nat

ure

of t

he

prob

lem

, lea

ding

to p

olic

y m

isst

eps.

The

sec

ond

issu

e is

that

spe

cial

ised

te

rms

can

ofte

n be

ove

r-us

ed w

hen

disc

ussi

ng i

nsur

genc

y in

ord

er t

o ad

vanc

e pa

rtic

ular

org

anis

atio

nal

or p

olit

ical

int

eres

ts.1

0 A

s a

seni

or

Bri

tish

arm

y of

ficer

obs

erve

d, ‘E

ndle

ss d

ebat

es a

bout

nom

encl

atur

e an

d a

sea

of a

cron

yms

obsc

ure

clar

ity’

.11

Insu

rgen

cy a

nd

cou

nte

rin

surg

ency

defi

ned

… if

we

mis

diag

nose

the

prob

lem

we

are

not l

ikel

y to

com

e up

w

ith

a so

luti

on.1

2

– Si

r M

icha

el H

owar

d

Insu

rgen

cy r

epre

sent

s a

rift

wit

hin

a st

ate

that

has

dev

elop

ed b

eyon

d no

rmal

non

-vio

lent

pol

itic

al d

isco

urse

. T

he 1

648

Peac

e of

Wes

tpha

lia

esta

blis

hed

the

mod

ern

norm

tha

t st

ates

are

the

sol

e le

giti

mat

e us

ers

of i

nter

nal

viol

ence

. In

exc

hang

e fo

r ac

know

ledg

ing

stat

e so

vere

ignt

y an

d ce

ding

the

rig

ht t

o us

e vi

olen

ce, p

opul

atio

ns e

xpec

t go

vern

men

ts t

o pr

otec

t, se

rve,

ena

ble

and

supp

ort t

hem

. Whe

re g

over

nmen

ts d

o no

t mee

t th

e ex

pect

atio

ns o

f th

eir

peop

le, a

nd p

olit

ical

neg

otia

tion

fai

ls, t

ensi

ons

build

. Agg

riev

ed e

lem

ents

of

the

popu

lati

on m

ay t

hen

reje

ct t

he s

tate

’s

mon

opol

y on

the

use

of

viol

ence

. Thi

s cr

eate

s th

e ne

cess

ary

cond

itio

ns

for

insu

rgen

cy, p

erha

ps b

est u

nder

stoo

d as

a fo

rm o

f soc

ieta

l war

fare

.Fo

r th

e pu

rpos

es o

f thi

s pa

per,

the

defin

itio

n of

insu

rgen

cy is

:

An

orga

nise

d, v

iole

nt a

nd p

olit

ical

ly m

otiv

ated

act

ivit

y co

nduc

ted

by n

on-s

tate

act

ors a

nd su

stai

ned

over

a p

rotr

acte

d

peri

od t

hat

typi

call

y ut

ilis

es a

num

ber

of m

etho

ds, s

uch

as

subv

ersi

on, g

uerr

illa

war

fare

and

terr

oris

m, i

n an

att

empt

to

achi

eve

chan

ge w

ithi

n a

stat

e.13

It

follo

ws

that

co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

is

the

resp

onse

by

go

vern

men

t to

th

e ex

iste

nce

of

an

insu

rgen

cy.

The

refo

re,

the

defin

itio

n of

co

unte

rins

urge

ncy

is:

Poli

tica

l, so

cial

, civ

ic, e

cono

mic

, psy

chol

ogic

al, a

nd m

ilit

ary

acti

ons

take

n to

def

eat a

n in

surg

ency

.14

Whi

le a

mor

e de

taile

d ex

amin

atio

n of

the

end

urin

g na

ture

of

thes

e co

nflic

ts f

ollo

ws,

it

is w

orth

hig

hlig

htin

g th

ree

idea

s ar

isin

g fr

om

thes

e de

finit

ions

. T

he fi

rst

is t

he c

entr

alit

y of

irr

egul

ar o

r no

n-st

ate

belli

gere

nts.

The

sec

ond

is t

he i

ssue

of

polit

ical

mot

ivat

ion.

The

th

ird

is t

he b

read

th o

f ap

proa

ches

use

d by

ins

urge

nts

and

nece

ssar

y fo

r co

unte

rins

urge

nts.

The

se t

hree

fac

tors

will

be

show

n as

key

to

deve

lopi

ng e

ffec

tive

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy p

olic

y.

Th

e is

sue

of t

erro

rism

an

d in

surg

ency

It h

as b

ecom

e co

mm

on t

o us

e th

e te

rms

terr

oris

m a

nd i

nsur

genc

y in

terc

hang

eabl

y. H

owev

er, t

hey

are n

ot th

e sam

e, a

nd it

is w

orth

expl

aini

ng

the

rela

tion

ship

bet

wee

n th

em. T

erro

rism

can

be

a ta

ctic

ado

pted

, wit

h va

ryin

g de

gree

s of

suc

cess

, in

insu

rgen

t cam

paig

ns.1

5 B

ut n

ot a

ll te

rror

ist

atta

cks

are

part

of

an in

surg

ency

and

man

y in

surg

enci

es d

o no

t re

stri

ct

them

selv

es t

o te

rror

ist

acti

viti

es.

Ter

rori

sm i

s a

tact

ic o

r op

erat

iona

l m

etho

d us

ed b

y a

rang

e of

vio

lent

gro

ups,

whi

le in

surg

ency

is a

hol

isti

c st

rate

gy.

It i

s at

lea

st t

heor

etic

ally

pos

sibl

e th

at a

n in

surg

ency

cou

ld

func

tion

wit

hout

the

use

of

terr

oris

m. S

trat

egis

t C

olin

S. G

ray

sugg

ests

th

at ‘…

if a

n ir

regu

lar

enem

y co

nfine

s it

self,

or

is c

ompe

lled

to b

e lim

ited

, to

act

s of

terr

oris

m, t

he th

reat

that

it p

oses

to p

olit

ical

sta

bilit

y is

an

orde

r of

mag

nitu

de le

ss s

ever

e th

an is

the

men

ace

from

insu

rgen

cy.’1

6 W

hile

eac

h te

rror

ist

outr

age

that

occ

urs

gene

rate

s a

new

ran

ge o

f co

unte

r-te

rror

ism

res

pons

es, i

t is

rar

e th

at p

olic

ies

are

ever

fas

hion

ed

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

89

to a

ddre

ss t

he i

nsur

genc

y-re

late

d is

sues

tha

t ar

e ul

tim

atel

y at

the

roo

t of

man

y su

ch a

cts.

Per

haps

one

of

the

mos

t gr

ievo

us s

trat

egic

err

ors

of t

he B

ush

Adm

inis

trat

ion’

s ‘G

loba

l War

on

Ter

ror’

was

the

foc

us o

n m

anif

esta

tion

(te

rror

ism

) ra

ther

tha

n on

roo

t ca

uses

— t

hat

is,

the

broa

der

set

of p

olic

y is

sues

tha

t gi

ve r

ise

to i

nsur

genc

ies

and

othe

r se

curi

ty c

once

rns.

Aus

tral

ian

stra

tegi

c po

licy

form

ulat

ion

seem

s to

be

mov

ing

tow

ards

mor

e ex

plic

it r

ecog

niti

on o

f th

is p

robl

em,1

7 bu

t a

mor

e pr

ecis

e un

ders

tand

ing

of t

he r

elat

ive

impo

rtan

ce a

nd i

mpa

ct o

f te

rror

ism

and

insu

rgen

cy to

nat

iona

l int

eres

ts is

war

rant

ed.

On

th

e as

ymm

etri

c n

atu

re o

f in

surg

ency

Ove

r th

e pa

st d

ecad

e th

e te

rm a

sym

met

ry h

as b

ecom

e so

com

mon

in

mili

tary

-str

ateg

ic a

ffai

rs t

hat

it i

s at

ris

k of

bec

omin

g m

eani

ngle

ss.

A

1999

RA

ND

Cor

pora

tion

rep

ort

prov

ides

a s

uita

ble

conc

ise

defin

itio

n of

asy

mm

etry

in

war

: ‘A

sym

met

ric

stra

tegi

es a

ttac

k vu

lner

abili

ties

no

t ap

prec

iate

d by

the

“ta

rget

” (v

icti

m)

or c

apit

aliz

e on

the

vic

tim

’s

limit

ed p

repa

rati

on a

gain

st t

he t

hrea

t.’18

Inc

reas

ingl

y th

ere

has

been

a

preo

ccup

atio

n w

ith

asso

ciat

ing

the

conc

ept

of

asym

met

ry

wit

h in

surg

ency

. It

cou

ld b

e ar

gued

tha

t la

belli

ng a

par

ticu

lar

form

of

war

as

asy

mm

etri

c is

tau

tolo

gica

l, si

nce

the

cond

uct

of a

ll fo

rms

of w

arfa

re

stri

ves

to b

e as

ymm

etri

c.19

The

his

tory

of w

arfa

re is

that

of t

he q

uest

to

gain

asy

mm

etri

c ad

vant

age.

The

199

1 an

d 20

03 d

estr

ucti

on o

f Sad

dam

H

usse

in’s

arm

ed f

orce

s by

the

tec

hnol

ogic

ally

sup

erio

r U

nite

d St

ates

an

d it

s al

lies

prov

ide

com

pelli

ng e

xam

ples

of a

sym

met

ric

war

fare

. W

here

an

insu

rgen

cy b

ecom

es a

sym

met

ric,

it d

oes

not c

ome

from

any

on

e ta

ctic

, m

etho

d or

cha

ract

eris

tic

of t

he i

nsur

gent

. R

athe

r, it

ari

ses

from

the

stat

e’s

failu

re to

rec

ogni

se th

e tr

ue n

atur

e of

insu

rgen

cy a

nd to

re

spon

d ac

ross

the

ful

l sp

ectr

um o

f go

vern

men

t an

d so

cial

end

eavo

ur.

The

insu

rgen

t has

cho

sen

the

soci

al a

nd p

olit

ical

fabr

ic o

f the

sta

te a

s th

e ba

ttle

field

; it

is t

he c

ount

erin

surg

ent

that

ina

dver

tent

ly m

akes

the

figh

t as

ymm

etri

c by

act

ing

wit

h m

ilita

ry-c

entr

ic o

r oth

er in

com

plet

e re

spon

ses.

T

his

is t

he o

ne a

spec

t of

asy

mm

etry

tha

t is

ger

man

e to

und

erst

andi

ng

and

deve

lopi

ng s

ound

str

ateg

ic p

olic

y ap

proa

ches

to in

surg

ency

.20

Cha

pter

2U

nder

stan

ding

insu

rgen

cy a

nd c

ount

erin

surg

ency

Intr

odu

ctio

n

The

Am

eric

an s

oldi

er t

urne

d sc

hola

r A

ndre

w B

acev

ich

sugg

ests

tha

t ‘T

he b

egin

ning

of

wis

dom

abo

ut w

ar l

ies

not

in t

raci

ng h

ow i

t ha

s ch

ange

d, b

ut i

n gr

aspi

ng h

ow i

ts c

ore

natu

re i

s pe

rman

ent.’

21 T

his

chap

ter

does

not

see

k to

pro

vide

a d

efini

tive

acc

ount

of i

nsur

genc

y an

d co

unte

rins

urge

ncy,

but

aim

s ra

ther

to

prov

ide

enou

gh b

ackg

roun

d on

th

e co

re, p

erm

anen

t nat

ure

of in

surg

ency

and

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy to

set

th

e sc

ene

for

prac

tica

l pol

icy

anal

ysis

. Sin

ce th

e fo

cus

of th

is p

aper

is a

t th

e st

rate

gic

leve

l — w

here

nat

iona

l pol

icy

is d

evel

oped

and

ena

cted

—

this

ana

lysi

s w

ill a

void

det

aile

d ex

amin

atio

n of

tact

ics.

The

com

plex

ity

and

dyna

mis

m o

f in

surg

ency

-rel

ated

con

flict

s of

ten

mak

e th

em h

ard

to u

nder

stan

d. S

till,

the

im

pact

of

thes

e tr

aits

sho

uld

not b

e ov

erst

ated

. Muc

h co

ntem

pora

ry w

riti

ng a

bout

insu

rgen

cy o

ffer

s ne

edle

ssly

com

plic

ated

ana

lysi

s. I

n fa

ct,

the

basi

c ch

arac

teri

stic

s of

in

surg

ency

and

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy a

re i

dent

ifiab

le a

nd r

elat

ivel

y ea

sy

to g

rasp

. The

com

plex

ity

aris

es w

hen

thes

e ne

ed t

o be

tra

nsla

ted

into

po

licy

or a

ctio

n.

One

com

mon

app

roac

h to

exp

lain

ing

insu

rgen

cy s

eeks

to

addr

ess

Col

in S

. G

ray’

s m

axim

tha

t ‘T

he c

onte

xts

of w

ar a

re a

ll im

port

ant.’

22

Thi

s ap

proa

ch a

ttem

pts

to a

dopt

tax

onom

ic c

lass

ifica

tion

s of

‘con

text

’

CO

NF

RO

NT

ING

TH

E H

YD

RA

1011

UN

DE

RST

AN

DIN

G I

NSU

RG

EN

CY

AN

D C

OU

NT

ER

INSU

RG

EN

CY

and

‘type

’ in

des

crib

ing

insu

rgen

cy.2

3 H

owev

er,

sinc

e th

e ch

arac

ter

of a

n in

surr

ecti

on i

s la

rgel

y sh

aped

by

the

soci

ety

in w

hich

it

take

s pl

ace,

gue

rrill

a m

ovem

ents

‘are

an

awkw

ard

topi

c fo

r ge

nera

lisat

ion.

’24

The

tax

onom

ic a

ppro

ach

thus

lea

ds t

o en

dles

s lis

ts o

f ev

ery

‘type

’ of

in

surg

ency

, whi

ch ri

sks o

vers

tati

ng th

e com

plex

ity

of in

surg

ency

wit

hout

ill

umin

atin

g it

s en

duri

ng c

hara

cter

isti

cs. A

ccor

ding

ly, t

his

chap

ter

will

ai

m fo

r in

sigh

ts in

to th

e en

duri

ng a

nd c

omm

on c

hara

cter

isti

cs o

f the

se

confl

icts

rat

her

than

a d

escr

ipti

on o

f the

ir m

any

man

ifes

tati

ons.

Des

pite

cla

ims

that

the

re i

s so

met

hing

pre

dom

inan

tly n

ovel

abo

ut

toda

y’s

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y ch

alle

nges

,25

the

endu

ring

cha

ract

eris

tics

of

insu

rgen

cy a

nd c

ount

erin

surg

ency

rem

ain

usef

ul in

iden

tify

ing

suit

able

co

ntem

pora

ry p

olic

y ap

proa

ches

. W

e do

not

sta

rt w

ith

a bl

ank

shee

t w

hen

conf

ront

ing

mod

ern

insu

rgen

cy: m

illen

nia

of e

xper

ienc

e in

dea

ling

wit

h su

ch c

halle

nges

hel

p ex

plai

n th

e na

ture

of

curr

ent

confl

icts

. Som

e ar

gue

that

bec

ause

eac

h ne

w c

onfli

ct is

uni

que,

his

tory

is o

f lit

tle u

se. Y

et

the

natu

re o

f the

cur

rent

set

of i

nsur

genc

y pr

oble

ms

is n

ot u

nfat

hom

ably

un

ique

. The

wor

ks o

f 19t

h- a

nd 2

0th-

cent

ury

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y an

alys

ts

such

as

Cha

rles

Cal

lwel

l and

Cha

rles

Gw

ynn2

6 su

gges

t th

at if

the

y w

ere

able

to

visi

t a

cont

empo

rary

con

flict

, su

ch a

s A

fgha

nist

an,

they

wou

ld

find

muc

h of

it f

amili

ar. D

espi

te c

laim

s m

ade

abou

t th

e ‘n

ew’ n

atur

e of

th

e Ir

aqi c

onfli

ct, t

he s

ucce

ssfu

l exe

cuti

on o

f the

200

6-08

‘sur

ge’ r

eflec

ted

long

-est

ablis

hed

coun

teri

nsur

genc

y pr

inci

ples

rat

her

than

an

inno

vati

ve

resp

onse

to

a hi

ther

to u

nkno

wn

prob

lem

. Cha

nge

in in

surg

ency

-rel

ated

co

nflic

t te

nds

to c

ompr

ise

linea

r ev

olut

ion

— t

hrou

gh t

he a

dopt

ion

of

new

tech

nolo

gy fo

r ex

ampl

e —

rat

her

than

rev

olut

ion.

W

ar

is

a pa

ssio

nat

e hu

man

en

deav

our

that

re

sist

s si

mpl

e ca

tego

risa

tion

. T

hat

said

, a

set

of k

ey t

hem

es c

an b

e id

enti

fied

to

assi

st u

nde

rsta

ndi

ng

the

nat

ure

of in

surg

ency

an

d co

unte

rin

surg

ency

. T

hese

are

:

• T

he d

iffe

renc

es b

etw

een

conv

enti

onal

war

fare

27 a

nd in

surg

ency

;•

Vio

lenc

e an

d cr

imin

alit

y;•

The

impo

rtan

ce o

f ide

as a

nd n

arra

tive

;•

Hum

an a

nd s

ocia

l con

cern

s; a

nd•

Prac

tica

litie

s.

War

, bu

t di

ffer

ent

As

a fo

rm o

f w

ar, i

nsur

genc

y co

nfor

ms

to C

laus

ewit

z’s

conc

ept

of w

ar

as a

n am

alga

m o

f po

litic

s an

d vi

olen

ce. D

avid

Gal

ula

has

para

phra

sed

Cla

usew

itz

to r

einf

orce

thi

s id

ea b

y de

scri

bing

ins

urge

ncy

as ‘

… t

he

purs

uit

of t

he p

olic

y of

a p

arty

, in

side

a c

ount

ry,

by e

very

mea

ns’.2

8 T

his

is a

lso

true

of

the

coun

teri

nsur

gent

’s e

ffor

t w

here

‘…

the

figh

t ag

ains

t th

e in

surg

ents

is

not

set

apar

t fr

om t

he n

orm

al p

ract

ises

of

gove

rnm

ent’.

29 H

owev

er,

ther

e is

a p

rofo

und

philo

soph

ical

dif

fere

nce

betw

een

insu

rgen

cy c

onfli

ct a

nd c

onve

ntio

nal

war

fare

. G

ener

al S

ir

Fran

k K

itso

n, th

e pr

e-em

inen

t Bri

tish

cou

nter

insu

rgen

cy th

inke

r of

the

last

cen

tury

, per

haps

bes

t exp

ress

es th

is d

iffe

renc

e:

… th

e m

ain

char

acte

rist

ic w

hich

dis

ting

uish

es c

ampa

igns

of

insu

rgen

cy fr

om o

ther

form

s of w

ar is

that

they

are

pri

mar

ily

conc

erne

d w

ith

the

stru

ggle

for

men

’s m

inds

, sin

ce o

nly

by

succ

eedi

ng in

suc

h a

stru

ggle

wit

h a

larg

e en

ough

num

ber

of

peop

le c

an t

he r

ule

of la

w b

e un

derm

ined

and

con

stit

utio

nal

inst

itut

ions

ove

rthr

own.

Vio

lenc

e m

ay p

lay

a gr

eate

r or

le

sser

par

t in

the

cam

paig

n, b

ut it

shou

ld b

e us

ed v

ery

larg

ely

in s

uppo

rt o

f ide

as. I

n a

conv

enti

onal

war

the

reve

rse

is m

ore

usua

lly

the

case

and

pro

paga

nda

is n

orm

ally

dep

loye

d in

su

ppor

t of a

rmed

mig

ht.3

0

Whe

reas

the

vio

lent

des

truc

tion

of

enem

y fo

rces

is

an o

bvio

us e

nd

to i

tsel

f in

a c

onve

ntio

nal

cam

paig

n, i

t is

rel

evan

t to

an

insu

rgen

cy

cam

paig

n on

ly to

the

degr

ee th

at it

adv

ance

s th

e ba

ttle

for

the

min

ds o

f th

e po

pula

tion

. Sha

ping

and

infl

uenc

ing

peop

le’s

thi

nkin

g is

the

mos

t de

cisi

ve a

ct in

this

form

of w

arfa

re.

Dif