low carbon development scenario of indonesia energy sector ... filet ype of ener gy base year 2005...
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Low Carbon Development Scenario of Indonesia Energy Sector in 2020 & 2050
The 19th AIM International Workshop December 13 - 14, 2013
Ohyama Memorial Hall, NIES, Tsukuba, Japan
Presented by Ucok Siagian, Retno Gumilang Dewi and Rizaldi Boer on behalf of the team
Outline
1. Introduction
2. Scenario Framework:
• Socio Economic Development Scenario
• Economic Output Structure
3. Supply Demand Energy Projection
4. Power Supply Mix and Transportation Scenario
5. GHG Emission Level and Mitigation Actions
Introduction 1
LCDS is usually intended to assess long-term vision (2050).
Particular emphasis in short-term (2020) is to address options for achieving GHG reduction target (National Action Plan) up to 26% below the baseline with domestic budget and further up to 41% with international support.
This study is to evaluate the achievement of GHG reduction potential from the national action plan and provide alternatives mitigation action to achieve national emission target.
Current energy supply mix (2010): role of new-renewable energy is still low (6.1%) while oil (44.34%), gas 43.30 %, coal 24.43%.
Power sector is discussed in more detailed as there is a new plan that intends to revise power development plan (more coal will be deployed gradually).
2005 2020
Emission level target
Reduction target non binding commitment (26% or 41%)
Baseline
GH
G E
mis
sio
ns
leve
l
Sector Emission Reduction (Giga ton CO2e) Total
(41 %) 26% 15%
Forestry and Peatland 0.672 0.367 1.039
Waste 0.048 0.030 0.078
Agriculture 0.008 0.003 0.011
Industry 0.001 0.004 0.005
Energy 0.038 0.018 0.056
Total 0.767 0.422 1.189
Scenario Framework 2
Scenario Framework
• Projection Scenario
2020 and 2050 (low GDP) and 2050 (high GDP)
• Baseline scenario:
Projection of GHG emission under expected socio-
economic development in Indonesia without additional
countermeasures to reduce GHG emission from energy.
• Counter Measure (CM) scenario:
Introduction of low-carbon measures which are already
available. Assumptions are based on the official target
(RAN-GRK, reduce 38 MtCO2 in energy sector).
Baseline Development Scenario (Socio Economic, Energy Demand and CO2)
1.00 1.19 1.40 -
1.00 2.31
11.60
17.73
- 1.00
2.19
8.05
11.99
- 1.00
2.91
8.55
18.18
-
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
202
00
5
202
0 B
aU
205
0 B
aU
200
5
202
0 B
aU
205
0 B
aU
low
205
0 B
aU
hig
h
200
5
202
0 B
aU
205
0 B
aU
low
205
0 B
aU
hig
h
200
5
202
0 B
aU
205
0 B
aU
low
205
0 B
aU
hig
h
Population GDP Energy Demand CO2 Emission
Va
lue
at
2005 =
1
Gross output of production sector
3,532 8,216
40,371
61,494
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2005 2020 BaU 2050 BaUlow
2050 BaUhigh
Trill
ion
Ru
pia
h
Tertiary Industries
Cement
Iron & Steel
Other Industry
Construction
Chemical Industry
Textile
Food & Beverage
Mining & Quarryng
Agriculture
Rp./US$ = 10,000
• Gross output: 2.31 times (2020), 11.6 (2050 Low GDP) and17.73 (GDP) from 2005.
• The highest contributor is Secondary industries
Supply Demand Energy Projection 3
Final Energy Demand Projection (2020)
By Fuel
By Sector
Difficult in moving away
from oil
Industrial sector is
main consumer
Biomass is used in rural residential
115
251 239 237
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM1 2020 CM2
Mill
ion
to
e
Biofuel
Electricity
Biomassa
Gas
Oil
Coal
115
251 239 237
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
2005 2020
BaU
2020
CM1
2020
CM2
Mill
ion
to
e
Commercial
Industry
Residential
Freight Transport
Passanger Transport
Primary Energy Supply and CO2 Emission Projection (2020)
145
357 343 344
-
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM1 2020 CM2
Mil
lio
n t
oe
Biofuel
Solar & Wind
Geothermal
Biomassa
Hydropower
Gas
Oil
Coal
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM1 2020 CM2
Other Sectors
Other energy
indusries
Power supply
Final demand
sectors
Power Supply Mix & Transportation Scenario 4
2005 2020
Emission level target (to meet government emission reduction commitment)
Reduction target
Revised reduction targetBaseline
“Higher coal in power” scenarioGH
G Em
issio
ns le
vel
902
Typeofenergy Baseyear2005 RUPTL2009-2018 RevisedPLNplan*Coal 40.7% 53% 65%
Oil 30.6% 4% 3%
Naturalgas 15.1% 26% 20%
hydro 8.4% 10% 5%
geothermal 5.2% 7% 7%
RUPTL 2009 - 2018 Coal Oil Natural Gas Hydropower Biomass Geothermal
Efficiency 28% 33% 38% 18% 29% 16%
Transportation Loss 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1% 12.1%
Share 53.0% 4.0% 26.0% 9.7% 0.3% 7.0%
Energy Supply Mix in Power Generation
41%
53%
52%
52%
31%
4%
4%
4%
15%
26%
26%
26%
8%
10%
11%
11%
0.02%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
5%
7%
7%
7%
0.1%
0.1%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2005
2020 BaU
2020CM(26%)
2020CM(41%)
Coal Oil Gas Hydropower Biomassa Geothermal Solar & Wind
• Both modal share and transport volume of private vehicle increase in 2020 Baseline.
• In 2020 CM, it is assumed that share of train increasevolume of train become larger.
• Freight transport volume increases proportionally with growth of secondary industries.
Projected Transport Volume
Passenger transport Freight transport
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2005 2020 BaU 2020
CM(26%)
2020 CM
All
Billio
n p
ass
an
ge
r.k
m
bike
walk
airplane
ship
motorcycle
train
bus
Car
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2005 2020 BaU 2020
CM(26%)
2020 CM
All
Billio
n t
on
.km
airplane
ship
train
truck
GHG Emission Level and Mitigation Actions 5
CO2 Emission in Energy Sector
0.346
1.009 0.965 0.947
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%)2020 CM(41%)
Gig
a t
on
CO
2
Other Sectors
Other energy indusries
Power supply
Final demand sectors
1.4
3.5 3.3 3.0
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2005 2020 BaU 2020 CM(26%) 2020 CM All
ton
CO
2 p
erc
ap
ita
CO2 emission intensity
CO2 reduction by measures
10.2
2.1
0.8
4.4
0.2
2.8
0.3
0.002
1.9
0.3
1.3
0.9
0.03
0.002
0.209
4.5
7.0
1.1
-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Mandatory application of energy management for energy-intensive…
Implementation of energy conservation partnership program
Enhancement of household utensils efficiency
Supply and management of new renewable energy and energy…
Biogas Utilization
Use of natural gas as city public transportation fuel
Enhancement of the pipe connection of natural gas to houses
Construction of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LGP) mini plants
Development of Intelligent Transport System ( ITS)
Application of a Traffic Impact Control (TIC)
Application of parking management
Reformation of transit system - Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) I semi BRT
Rejuvenation of public transport fleets
In stallation of Converter Kit (public transport gasification)
Smart driving (eco-driving) training and socialization
Building of Non-Motori zed (Pedestrian and bi cycle lines)
Development of Bandung's city railways
Constructi on of doubl e-double track (including electrification)
Road construction / improvement and preservation
MtCO2
CO2 reduction by measures
0 5 10 15 20 25
Mandatory application of energy management for energy-intensive users
Implementation of energy conservation partnership program
Enhancement of household utensils efficiency
Supply and management of new renewable energy and energy conservation
Biogas Utilization
Use of natural gas as city public transportation fuel
Enhancement of the pipe connection of natural gas to houses
Construction of Liquid Petroleum Gas (LGP) mini plants
Development of Intelligent Transport System ( ITS)
Application of a Traffic Impact Control (TIC)
Application of parking management
Reformation of transit system - Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) I semi BRT
Rejuvenation of public transport fleets
In stallation of Converter Kit (public transport gasification)
Smart driving (eco-driving) training and socialization
Building of Non-Motori zed (Pedestrian and bi cycle lines)
Development of Bandung's city railways
Constructi on of doubl e-double track (including electrification)
Road construction / improvement and preservation
MtCO2
RAN-GRK
KU
CO2 reduction by measures
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
KU RAN-GRK ITB
MtC
O2
A26A20A19A18A17A16A15A14A13A12A11A10A8A7A6A5A4A3A2A1
38
38.5 38.5
55.9
