lost pines report final version
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
1/70
"## $%&&'() "## $*&("#$$%&$ "#'() *(%+ ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#
$#+& ,%-(+ ,.#/(.&0 12-(.+
3%.( ,.#&(4&%#- "*+5 3#.4(
2'3 456 7849:;*/(#;(%,#+'/:?
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
2/70
"*;'( #9 # #(%B$ */(# A#',-#( ???????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????? L
1/(# D#>/&$ ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????? L
@/&) $-/*, ;(#)/#( ?????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????? 9
"%A#( ',+%$;-#(# E#(3 B&$,'D:#?????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????? ??????? 9
C#$%B(-,/&> ???????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????????????????????????? 5
T% '/(
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
3/70
W%++'&) '&) >(#$$/E# (#$;%&$# ,% %,-#( A/:)*/(#$ ?????????????????????????????????????????????????? 48
0#(+'&, '/( ,'&R#( D'$# ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????? 44
D. Recommendations .............................................................................11
II. Fire Danger Extreme ................................................................... 15
III. First Day ....................................................................................... 18
A. Early Hours .......................................................................................18
4? H/+# A-#& */(# $,'(,#) ???????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????? ???? 45
7? V/I# %* */(# A-#& */(# )#;'(,+#&,$ '((/E#) ?????????????????????????????????????????? ??????????? 45
B. Growth of Fire ...................................................................................20
C. Command and Communication Problems .....................................22
D. MD Anderson and Fire Hydrants ...................................................24
E. Resources at Scene ............................................................................25
4? 1/(# )#;'(,+#&,$ ?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????? 7L
7? SB::)%I#($ ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 7L
F? Q/(
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
4/70
IV. Day 1 Response Compared With Other Fires .......................... 27
A. Introduction .......................................................................................27
B. Fire Suppression Resources .............................................................27 4? HG12QV ?????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????? 7P
7? SB::)%I#($ ????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? 75
F? Q/((-& H(&(.>%-(+ 3%.( K+ F "%>(+ $*.:(.
"7*- B--#D-4(8 .............................................................................38
#.-%-: 1- H*0 I) &7( M%88(- ,%-(+ 3%.( N*+ *+
$*.:( *+ &7( N%'8(.-(++ =%8:( 3%.( .............................................40
VI. Window Of Opportunity Lost .................................................... 40
B6 N%-8 @7%9& ,.(8%4&(8 ......................................................................40
J6 3*A#.*;'( N(*&7(. .........................................................................40
>(#$$/E#:3 ',,'
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
5/70
F? Q:: '/((%B&)#) A/,-%B, (#,'()'&, ????????????????????????????????????????? ?????????????????????????? J9
J6 BJKB %+ &7( =%:7& ,'*4( 9#. *- B%. "*-5(. J*+( .........................46
4? QB$,/&6 V'& Q&,%&/% '&) .%B$,%& +#,(%$ '(# '+%&> ,-# +%$,', (/$R *%( A/:)*/(# )'+'># ???????????????????????????????????????????? ????????????????????????????????????????? J9
7? S'$,(%; W%B&,3 -'$ ,-# +%$, $,(B H('/: ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? LJ
`'&/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
6/70
ACRONYMS ........................................................................................ 62
FOOTNOTES ....................................................................................... 63
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
7/70
4
!"" $%&&'() !"" $*&("#$$%&$ "#'() *(%+ ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#
K6 3%-8%-:+ *-8 =(4#>>(-8*&%#-+
B6 J*45:.#D-8
N7# 2( *.(
H-/$ (#;%(, /$ D#/&> /$$B#) D3 ,-# "%$, 0/$ 0(%;#(,3 UA($ 1/(# 0(%,#$/)# B$ A-%;#(/$-#) A-#& ,-#3 '/&???'&) '>'/&? @# '(# $')6 *(B$,(',#)6 '&) *#'(*B: D##(Z,#(+ )(%B>-,$ '$ ,-# dA &%(+':e
*%(
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
8/70
7
:'&)? G, /$ *%( ,-', (#'$%& ,-/$ (#;%(, *% ,-# */($, 7J-%B($6 ,-#(# '(# /+;%(,'&, :#$$%&$ ,% D# :#'() ,-', -,#($6 ,-#(# '(# +'&3 %,-#($ A-%;(%E/)#) %B,$,'&)/&> $#(E/ ,-# */(#6 /& ,-%$# A-% A%(R *%( S'$,(%; W%B&,36W/,3 %* V+/,-E/::#6 W/,3 %* S'$,(%;6 H#]'$ 1%(#$, V#(E/(%A,-? S3 U#,',/%& A'$ #],(#+#:3 )(3?
Q, 'D%B, &%%& %& HB#$)'36 U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
9/70
F
IO 7#D.+ *8A*-4( -#&%4( * 2%-8 +7%9& %+ 4#>%-: &7*& 2#D'8 /D& 7#>(+ %-
&7( /*&7 #9 &7( 9%.(
Q, 7g4X ;+ %& U-,/&> D#>/&&/&> '(%B&) 48g88 ;+%& U +%(&/&>?
G* ,-# */(# A'$ &%, %* ,-# 4J,-?
•
H-#(# A#(# *%B( $/&>:# #&>/ '/( ,'&R#($ ,-', -, -#:/ %* ,-# 4J,-? H-#3 $', A'/,/&> ,% D# %& ,-# 4J,- A-#& +%$, %* ,-# $,(B
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
10/70
J
-';;#) %& N'3 4 '&) 7 %* ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#? G& *'/&> /&*#(&% ,-', A%B:) +'( '&) -%A cB/$,(%+ G&,#(&',/%&': Q/(;%(, ,-', -'$(#,'()'&, 'E'/:'D:# *%( H3;# 4 '/( ,'&R#($6 $/&>:# #&>/ '/( ,'&R#($6 '&) ' NWZ48 '/(,'&R#( )B(/&> ;#'R */(# ;#(/%)$ %( A-#& ,-# 'E#('># aSNG )(%B>-, /&)#] /$ ', ' E#(3-/>- :#E#: *%( +%(# ,-'& P )'3$ /& ' (%A?
Q-,#($ '$ '& /& E%:B&,##($?
W%&$/)#( #$,'D:/$-/&> '>(##+#&,$ A/,- %B,$/)# %(>'&/I',/%&$ '&) ,('/) ;(%*#$$/%&':
E%:B&,##($ ,% '$$/$, A/,- ;BD:/< /&*%(+',/%& %;#(',/%&$ )B(/&> */(# #+#(>#&
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
11/70
L
*:( 4*D+(8 ;0 &7( M%88(- ,%-(+ 3%.(
1GTNGTig 2%(# ,-'& J988 ' ,-# */($, 48 )'3$ /& U(%A,- ,-', D##(?
1GTNGTig W%&)/,/%&$ A#(# (/>-, %& U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
12/70
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
13/70
P
=(+#D.4(+SM('%4#/&(.+
1GTNGTig H('E/$ W%B&,3 ;(%E/)#) ,A% VHQC 1:/>-, -#:/ ,-# '*,#(&%%& '&)#'(:3 #E#&/&> %* U-, 7 '((/E#) ', ,-# */(# ', 4gFP ;+?6 '&) /, /$ ' H3;# F-#:/'::%&$ #'
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
14/70
5
1GTNGTig SB::)%I#($ '(# #$$#&,/': /& */(# D(#'R$ /& :%#, '# /& $/I# %* ,-# */(# B&,/: 4g45 ;+ %&U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
15/70
X
1GTNGTig H-# (#$%B( %* U*-8 *-8 4#>>D-%4*&%#- %++D(+
1GTNGTig V#E#(': */(# '&/I#) '&) /& ',,'3 '&) ' ;(#+',B(# )#Z#$
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
16/70
48
/+;%(,'&, /&*%(+',/%& ,-', A'$ ;%$,#)6 $B )/**/E%:B&,##($?
1GTNGTig V#E#(': */(# $Z"## W%B&,3 Q/(;%(, *%( ,-# *%B(V\QH$? S3 N'3 J ,-# '/(;%(, -') (B& %B, %* (#,'()'&,? H-# ,(B ,-# +%(&/&> %* N'3 J6 ' NWZ48 A'$ ,% '6 H#&$$## ,% :%') ,-# ;:' A/,- (#,'()'&,? H-/$ )#:'3#) ,-# NWZ48*(%+ +'R/&> /, ,% ,-# */(# $#.( *::.(++%A( .(+/#-+( #&7(. 2%'89%.(+
1GTNGTig H-# W%+'&-,$6 H#]'$ '&) ,-# T%(,- V/)# 1/(# '(.B&,$E/::#6 H#]'$ D#>'& $/] )'3$ '*,#( ,-# $,'(, %* ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#? S%,- */(#$ A#(#@^G */(#$?
1GTNGTig H-# W%+'&
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
17/70
44
?# /(.>*-(-& *%. &*-5(. ;*+( %- "(T*+
1GTNGTig H#]'$ /$ % %* ,-(## A#$,#(& $,',#$ A/,-%B, ' ;#(+'&, '/( ,'&R#( D'$# ,-', #(/$R ,% (#$/)#&,/': $,(B(%A& )('+',/(%A,- /& @^G '(#'$ #];#- (/$R %* A/:)*/(#)'+'># %* ':: 4F A#$,#(& $,',#$ /& ,-# ^&/,#) V,',#$?
H6
=(4#>>(-8*&%#-+
=U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
18/70
47
=U#(?
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
19/70
4F
UT/'*-*&%#-W H-# H#]'$ G&,('$,',# 1/(# 2B,B': Q/) V3$,#+ YHG12QV[ #)$ ,% D# '
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
20/70
4J
UT/'*-*&%#-W H-#(# '(# ,-(## '(#'$ A/,-/& 788 +/:#$ %* QB$,/& ,-', ('&R /& ,-# ,%; 48 '(#'$*%( -/>-#$, A/:)*/(# (/$R ,% (#$/)#&,/': ;(%;#(,/#$ '+%&> ,-# 4F A#$,#(& $,',#$ /& ,-# ^?V? G,/$ -/>- ,/+# *%( '& '/( ,'&R#( D'$# A/,- ,-# '>(##+#&,$ A/,- %,-#( %B,$/)# %(>'&/I',/%&$ ,% '$$/$, A/,- ;BD:/<(##+#&,$ A/,- ,-# "%A#( W%:%(')% C/E#( QB,-%(/,3 %( S:B#D%&, \:# #+#(>#&
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
21/70
4L
=U /,$ %A& \VN ,-', A%B:) #( A'$ #],(#+#? U*/(# #()#$/>&',/%& D3 H1V )/) &%, +',-#$, :#E#:? H-#(# -') D##& ' &B+D#( %* $/I'D:# A/:)*/(#$#'(:/#( /& ,-# +%&,-6 '&) ':$% %& U#?S'$,(%; W%B&,3 M%:B&,##( 1/(# N#;'(,+#&,$ YM1N$[ (#$;%&)#) ,% ,-%$# */(#$6 /&\:>/&6 0'/># '&) S:B#D%&,? H-%$# M1N$ A#(# &%, 'E'/:'D:# ,% (#$;%&) ,% ,-# ./))#& 0/$1/(#?
H-# ('$- %* >('$$ */(#$ /& U- ':#(, 4? U& `B:3 4J6 784L6 H#]'$ A'$ XL?FPj )(%B>-,Z*(##? .%A#E#(6 D3 U-, A/,- '&%,-#(48?4Pj #];#(/#& #],(#+# ,% #]
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
22/70
49
Q$ $-%A& %& ,-# +';6 ,-# $#E#(/,3 %* ,-# )(%B>-, A'$ &%, ,-# $'+# /& H('E/$ W%B&,3 '$ /,A'$ /& S'$,(%; W%B&,3? Q:: DB, ' ;%(,/%& %* A#$,#(& S'$,(%; W%B&,3 A'$ /& #],(#+# ,%#]%(/#$7?
14(. Z) IOEY
UT&.(>( H.#D:7&S'$,(%; W%B&,3 H('E/$ W%B&,3
LJ?9Fj 7?79j
1(%+ ' A/:)*/(# $,'&);%/&,6 )(%B>-,$ '(# +#'$B(#) B$/&> ,-# a##, ,-# ,%; #/>-,/&
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
23/70
4P
$&/*/#)PF8_PJ8 *(%+ U (##,',/%& >(%A,- A'$ % +%(# (#'$%& ,% D# %& -/>-':#(, *%( A/:)*/(#$? H-# T',/%&': @#',-#( V#(E/# '&) S'$,(%; W%+;:#]1/(#$? NB(/&> ,-# A##R#&) %* U'/& ,-# -'I'()%B$ &',B(# %* ,-# */(# A#',-#( *%( U6 ,-# .'/$ G&)#]
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
24/70
45
$,'(,$ ', 76 /&)/(%A,- '&) #&)$ ', 96 /&)/#( %* (';/) */(# >(%A,-? Q, '(%B&) 7g88 ;+ %& U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
25/70
4X
48 '-, 76 A-/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
26/70
78
J6 ^.#2&7 #9 3%.(
H-# G&(#$$/%& /& ,-# >(%A,- %*,-# $/I# %* ,-# */(#? Q$ A/:: D# )/$# ;#( *%( ,-# */(#6 -#')/&> /& ' $%B,-A#$,#(:3 )/(#? S3 7g48 ;+ ,-# */(#6 ',- %* ,-# */(# A'$ ,A% ,% ,A% '&) ' -':* +/:#$6 $,(#, *(%+ ,-#+/)):# d\e /& d"^\Wa\e ,% 0'(R C%') 4W '( 2N Q&)#($%&?
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
27/70
74
W(#',/%&$ D3 W3&,-/' ./))#& 0/$ 1/(# Pg4L ;+ U-, A/&)$;##)$?
1(%+ 9g85 ;+ ,% 44g85 ;+ ,-# ,#+;#(',B(# )(%;;#) *(%+ X4k 1 ,% 98k 16 (#:',/E# -B+/)/,3(%$# *(%+ 44j ,% LJj6 '&) A/&) $;##)oA/&) >B$,$ A#(# ', I#(%? S3 +/)&/>-, +B,-$ ', >(%B&) :#E#:? U& ,-# *%::%A/&> ;'># ,-#(# /$ ';-%,%>(';- A-/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
28/70
77
H#]'$ 1%(#$, V#(E/#,',/%&? V+/,-E/::# M1N A'$ D-%4*&%#- ,.#;'(>+
H-(## */(# -,#($ )B# ,% ,-# )/$%(>'&/I',/%&e6 d'&B+D#( %*
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
29/70
7F
)#;'(,+#&,$ )/) &%, B&)#($,'&) ,-/$ -,#($'&) (#$%B( N'3 4 A'$ &%, 'E'/:'D:#? 1%( #]'+;:#6 )B(/&> ,-# H1V A$
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
30/70
7J
;#(/+#,#( A'$ 'E'/:'D:# )B(/&> ,-# +%(&/&> %* ,-# 4J,-? G& *'-,#($ ,% ,-# W'&-,#($ ',/%& A'$ *B&)#) ,-(%B>- ' 1\2Q>('&,? H-# *B#: +/,/>',/%& #**%(, '&) ,-# )(%;;/&> %* (#,'()'&, D3 ,-# V\QH$ ,-# W'&$ ', ,-# W'&/$ /& ' ,/+#:3+'&(? H-/$ A'$ #$;#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
31/70
7L
U6 =(+#D.4(+ *& @4(-(
E6 3%.( 8(/*.&>(-&+
U& N'3 46 U-,/&> A'$ B&)#(,'R#& D3 .#'(, %* ,-# 0/$6
V+/,-E/::#6 '&) @/&'>#)A/,- ' */(# '( ,-# @-%%; V,%; /& 0'/>#6 '&) S:B#D%&, '&) 1/E# 0%/&,$ M1N$ A#(##&>'>#) A/,- ' */(# '( ^&/%& W-';#: C%') /& W#)'( W(##R? H-# @-%%; V,%; '&) ,-# ^&/%&W-';#: */(#$ A#(# %* U-,/&> :'(># A/:)*/(#$ D%,-*%(
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
32/70
79
G, A'$ %E#( #/>-, -%B($ D#*%(# ,-#(# A#(# *%B( DB::)%I#($ ', ,-# $ ,-# '/( ,A% ,(/;$ ,%(#:%')6 *+() )'+ (",+ (-, )',++ '-.,& "# -,$+, )- ,+*-/$ !")' ,+)/,$/#)0 H-# QD/:# V\QH$'((/E/&> ', ,-# $?
Q#(/': */(#*/>-,/&> $,'&)'()$ (##( ,-',,-# */(# A/:: >#, '-#') %* ,-# (#,'()'&,f$ #**#-, ':: ,-# V\QH$6 #]
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
33/70
7P
KR6 H*0 E =(+/#-+( /*.(8 N%&7
1&7(. 3%.(+
B6 K-&.#8D4&%#-
V#E#(': */(#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
34/70
75
V,',# W%%()/&',%(? H-# V,',# W%%()/&',%( /$6 $'A$6 A',#( ,#&)#($ %( )%I#($6 )#;#&)/&> %&A-', /$ %/&> ,% D#
$%+# )#:'3 /& >#,,/&> ' $,(/R# ,#'+ ,%>#,-#(? 1(#cB#&,:36 $,(/R# ,#'+$ '(# -,#($ *(%+ $#E#(': )/**#(#&, */(# )#;'(,+#&,$ +'&3 +/:#$ ';'(,? H-#(# A/:: D# '))/Z,/%&': )#:'36 $%+#,/+#$ $BD$,'&,/':6 )#;#&)/&> %& ,-# )/$,'& ' HG12QV (#cB#$, /$ #]Z,(#+#:3 /+;%(,'&, ,% ,'R# /&,% '-,#($ -, ' */(##]# A/:):'&) */(#$ H1V ;(%E/)#$ )%I#($6 DB, /& -)%I#($ (#')/:3 'E'/:'D:# %,-#( #&,/,/#$ -'E# $B;;:/#) )%I#($ )B(/&> :'(># A/:)*/(#$? G& ,-#S'$,(%; W%+;:#] 1/(#6 W'+; VA/*, $#&, )%I#($ ,% -#:; A/,- ,-# */(#*/>-,/&>? V%+#,/+#$ ,-#H#]'$ N#;'(,+#&, %* H('&$;%(,',/%& YH]NUH[ ':$% ;(%E/)#$ )%I#($ *%( B$# /& A/:):'&)*/(#$? 2'&3 ? H('E/$W%B&,36 *%( #]'+;:#6 B$#$ ,-# DB::)%I#($ /& /,$ C%') r S(/)># N#;'(,+#&, ,% */>-, A/:)*/(#$?G& ' &B+D#( %* $,',#$6 ;(/E',#:3 %A) DB::)%I#($6 A/,- ;(%;#(:3 ,('/) %;#(',%($6 '(# ':$%
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
35/70
7X
B$#) /& */>-,/&> A/:):'&) */(#$? H-#(# $-%B:) E#( D# ' $-%(,'># %* DB::)%I#($ ,% */>-,A/:)*/(#$6 DB, ,-#(# A'$ ' $-%(,'># /& ,-# */($, 7J -%B($ %* ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#?
X6 B%.4.*9&
G& */>-,/&> :'(># A/:)*/(#$6 #$;#-,#($ %& ,-# >(%B&) '&) L88*##, A/)#6 %( /, %(/#$p H3;# 46 H3;# 7 '&) H3;# F? H3;# 4 '/( ,'&R#($ # Q/( H'&R#($ Y"QH[?1(#cB#&,:36 H3;# 4 '/( ,'&R#($ '(# #/,-#( ' 2NZ5P YNWZX[ %( C`5L? Q H3;# 7 '/( ,'&R#( #('::3 (#*#((#) ,% '$ '
V\QH6 ' $/&>:# #&>/ '/( ,'&R#(? H-# +%$,
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
36/70
F8
=U"B=HB?" BK=
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
37/70
F4
-#:/#+#&,? H-# '::%&$ %* A',#( ;#( ,(/;? H('E/$ W%B&,3 ':$% ;(%ZE/)#$ H3;# F -#:/-,/&> )B,/#$? VHQC 1:/>-, 7 YV1 7[ /$ % $B
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
38/70
F7
-,#($(#$;%&)#) ,% ,-# */(# A/,- '))/,/%&': */(#*/>-,#($ *(%+ ,-# +#,(%;:#]7J? T/DB::)%I#($ (#$;%&)#) ,% ,-# */(#6 ,-(## *(%+ H1V6 ,-(## *(%+ ' HG12QV ,#'+67L '&) ,-(##*(%+ ,-# S#:: W%B&,3 C%') '&) S(/)># N#;'(,+#&,? 79 H-# DB::)%I#($ A#(#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
39/70
FF
*/(#D(#'R$ )B# ,% /&'D/:/,3 %* */(#*/>-,#($ ,% (#'/#2'+ F",+ !/& CDDG 2-#)/"#+$ 37 HI;D 5> /) ED /2,+& ? W%&,'/&+#&, A'$ )B# /&:'(># ;'(, ,% ,-# */(# $B;;(#$$/%& '/( ,-# '*,#(&%%& '&) &/>-,,/+#? F9H-#3 A#(# $B;;%(,#) cB/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
40/70
FJ
'&) >(%B&) (#$%B(?
?1="M @KHU 3K=U =U@1c=
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
41/70
FL
G& ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#6 ,A% VHQC 1:/>-, -#:/-, -#:/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
42/70
F9
HA% V\QH$ '&? H-', A'$ &%, ,-#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
43/70
FP
R6 @%C( #9 3%.(W 3#D. "%>(+ $*.:(.
0(%;#(:3 $/I/&> ' */(# /$ -, A/&) $;##)$ +/>-, D# -'&):#) A/,- :% A/:: ,3;/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
44/70
F5
EOWF] *>gH-# S'$,(%; W%B&,3 V-#(/**f$ U**/+ /& ") !/& +/,*"+, )-$/70N` @7(.%99 ,%45(.%-: 2%&7 "(T*+ 3#.(+& @(.A%4(
Q, &% ,/+# A'$ -/$ $,',#+#&,
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
45/70
FX
N#;'(,+#&, %* 0BD:/< V'*#,3? H-# H1V ./))#& 0/$ 1/(# /& ;(%E/)#$ ,-# ,/+#:/*%( ,-# +';;/&> #]#( VB&(/$#
\WOO *> `%()'& V+/,- '((/E#$ ', ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#
]WFY *> N0V -#:/ ', ,-# V+/,-E/::# '/(;%(,
EWE\ /> 0#( N0V 1:/>-,6 B;)',#) '
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
46/70
J8
#.-%-: 1- H*0 I) &7( M%88(- ,%-(+ 3%.( N*+
*+ $*.:( *+ &7( N%'8(.-(++ =%8:( 3%.(
NB# ,% ,-# S'$,(%; W%+;:#] 1/(#6 ,-# :'(>#$, '&) +%$, )#$,(B# */(#? H-# @/:)#($$ C/)># 1/(#6 A-/'& %&1#D(B'(3 756 788X6 -') D##& ,-# :'(>#$,6 +%$, )#$,(B# 1/(#?
RK6 N%-8#2 19 1//#.&D-%&0 $#+&
B6 N%-8 @7%9& ,.(8%4&(8
Q, ,-# $,'(, %* ,-# */(#6 ,-# A/&) A'$ *(%+ ,-# &%(,-#'$,6 ;B$-/&> ,-# */(# ,% ,-#$%B,-A#$,? H-# A/&) -%B, ,-# )'3 '&) /&,% ,-# #E#&/&> *(%+ ,-# &%(,-6&%(,-#'$,? .%A#E#( $;%, *%(#-,+ )'/# ;D'-.,& ,-', +']/+B+ #**%(, #)#) ,% +')# ,% >#, ,-# */(# -,/&> ', ,-# $,'(, %* ,-# ./))#& 0/$1/(# ', 4g88 ;+ %& U?
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
47/70
J4
S3 48g88 ;+ ,-# ,#+;#(',B(# -') )(%;;#) ,% 9F° 16 (#:',/E# -B+/)/,3 -') (/$#& ,% JLj'&) A/&) $;##)$ '&) A/&) >B$,$ A#(# ', I#(%? 1'E%('D:# A#',-#( -, B&,/: '(%B&) 48g88 '+ %& U ,% ,'R# -%:)?
H-# )',' *%( ,-# >(';- 'D%B, A/&) $;##)$ '&) )/(#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
48/70
J7
$,'(,#) #]-/D/,/&> #],(#+# */(# D#-'E/%(? i/E#& ,-# *'E%('D:# A#',-#(6 ,-# D#$, ,/+# ;#(/%)*%( */>-,/&> ,-# */(# A'$ D#,A##& 48g88 ;+ %& U ', >(%B&) :#E#:?H-/$ /$ ,3;/? .#(# '(# ,-# #$ '$ (#;%(,#) D3 ,-# H#]'$ 1%(#$,V#(E/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
49/70
JF
^.((-A%''( "3@ JD''8#C(.
"%>( UA(-&
48g8L '+ "'((3 C'$+B$%& /& 2/(': @#::$6 H#]'$ A'$
-, ,-', */(#? G& 78446 DB::)%I#( ,#'+$ %* ,-# HlQCTi *%B>-, */(#$ '::'
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
50/70
JJ
Q, W'+; VA/*, ', :#'$, 48 DB::)%I#($ A#(# /):# )B(/&> U/$+ ") )- )'+ (",+0
X6 B'' *%.4.*9& 2(.( #- &7( :.#D-8 %-+&(*8 #9 *& &7( 9%.(
VB&(/$# %& U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
51/70
JL
1/&'::36 '*,#( ,-# VHQC 1:/>-, ,A##,6 VHQC 1:/>-, J A'$ (#cB#$,#) ,% E/#A6 "B*R/& '&) S#'B+%&, */(# )#;'(,+#&,$ #]-,#($ *(%+\VN T%? J /& H('E/$ W%B&,3? H-# %,-#( HG12QV ,#'+$ ,%%R J ,% L -%B($ ,% >#, ,% ,-# */(#?H-#3 )/) &%, '((/E# B&,/: ,-# #E#&/&> %& U
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
52/70
J9
HA% H3;# 4 '/( ,'&R#($ Y'& 2NZ5P '&) ' C`5L[ ,-# B$# %* ,-# NWZ48?
L1F= 5*/#& )- .&+ )'+ 5*/#+ &),/)+M"2/**7 )- 5,-)+2) &),.2).,+&T '->+& /#$ )-
&)-5 )'+ (-,!/,$ 5,-M,+&&"-# -( )'+ (",+0N
H-# NWZ48 )/) &%, +'R# /, ,% ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(# %& ,-# +%(&/&> %* U'::%&$ %* (#,'()'&, */E# ,% $/] -%B($ :',#( ,-'& '&,/ /,$ (#,'()'&, )B(/&> ' +B (#;:#&/$-+#&, D(%R# )%A& /& S/> V;(/&>6 H#]'$6 $%+# FL8 +/:#$ *(%+i/))/&>$JF? H-# V\QH$ A#(# >(%B&)#) *%( ,-', )'3?
J6 BJKB %+ &7( =%:7& ,'*4( 9#. *- B%. "*-5(. J*+(
E6 BD+&%-) @*- B--%# *-8 M#D+- >(&.#+ *.( *>#-: &7( >#+& *& .%+5
9#. 2%'89%.( 8*>*:(
W%(#"%>/#, *%( ,-# 4F
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
53/70
JP
A#$,#(& $,',#$6 A-//< '(# -#'E/:3 (#:/#)
B;%& D3 ;(%;#(,3 '&) %(3 *%( A/:)*/(# )'+'>#?1%( ,-# V'& Q&,%&/% WSVQ6 F46FL8 -%+#$ '(# /& ,-# -/>-#$, (/$R
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
54/70
J5
X6 1-'0 "(T*+) 15'*7#>*) *-8 N0#>%-: 8# -#& 7*A( *
/(.>*-(-& *%. &*-5(. ;*+(
H#]'$ '&) W':/*%(&/' '(# E/(,B'::3 ,/#) '$ *'( '$ ,-# ;%,#&,/': *%( :%$/&> (#$/)#&,/':
$,(B- %( E#(3 -/>- A/:)*/(# (/$R6 ':#) A/,-A/:):'&)? 1%( ,-%$# */(#$6 ,-# ,/+# /, ,'R#$ ,% >#, ,% ,-# $
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
55/70
JX
/+;%(,'&,6 DB, /& ' @^G */(# ,/+# /$ A$
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
56/70
L8
,-'& ,-',6e '&) L8 ;#(?
2#'&A-/:#6 /& '& /&,#(E/#A A/,- ' (#;%(,#( A/,- alQTZHM /& QB$,/&6 1/$-#( -') ,-/$ ,% $'3'D%B, ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(# %& U-D%(-%%)6 '&) A# +/>-, &%, -'E# ,-', :B]B(3 %* D#/&> 'D:# ,% D# )#:/D#(',# '&) ,'R/&>%B( ,/+# :/R# A# )/) 3#$,#()'3?e H-# /&,#(E/#A ';;#'(#) %& ,-# &%%& A$ ,-', )'3?
YG&,#(E/#A#) +%&,-$ :',#(6 1/$-#( )#*#&)#) -/$ %;,/+/$+ '$ A#:: '$ ,-# FPLZ'%%) ,-', A# -') +#, %B( %DK#-,? U;,/+/$+ /$ ;'(, %* +3 +'&'>#+#&, $,3:#?e Q$ *%( ,-# B&)#(#$,/+',#6 -# $'/)gd@# )/) ,-# D#$, A# #, /, B&)#( '&) A'$+%E/&> ,-# */(# /& ,-# )/(## ,% -#:; ;(%E/)# B;)',#$ ,% ,-# ;BD:/
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
57/70
L4
+#'$B(#$ ,% ;(#;'(# ,-#/( -%+#$ '&) ;:'& *%( ;%,#&,/': #E'
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
58/70
L7
H-# ], )'3 ,-# U\2 'D'&)%) ,-# ./))#& 0/$ ;'># '&) +%E#) B;)',#$ %& ,-# ./))#&0/$ */(# ,% /,$ (#>B:'( ;'>#6 $'3/&>g dV/& -# -') #(#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
59/70
LF
H-#& % -# -') R#;, ,-# '(#' '(%B&) -/$ -%B$# '&)+#,': DB/:)/&> +%A#) '&) -, ,-# ;(%;#(,3 /& 4X59 '&) -') */]#) B; ,-#$+':: $-/;:'; (#A ,% 4L ' /$ $B;;%$#) ,% D# *'( 'A'3 '&) B&)#( -,?
.# >%, ,-# D') A$ ,A% )'3$ :',#(? H-# -%B$# DB() ,% ,-# >(%B&)? H-# *:'+#$ -')+/$$#) ,-# -%+#$ %* ,A% '(D3 />-D%($? G, A'$ ' A##R D#*%(# -# A'$ '::%A#) D' A'$ &%, )'+'>#)6 #]
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
60/70
LJ
2%&,-$ :',#(6 N'E/$ $,/:: >#,$ '>/,',#) A-#& -# ,':R$ 'D%B, ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#? .# /$B;$#,6 &%, A/,- ,-# */(#*/>-,#($6 DB, A/,- ,-%$# /& -,? H-#3
)/)&f, #E#& R&%A ,-# $/I# %* ,-# */(# B&,/: /, A'$ ,%% :',#6e N'E/$ $'/)?
YU& ,-# $# %* ,-# */(#6 %**/%%) (#'$%&?
H-# +'$$/E# S'$,(%; W%+;:#] */(# /& V#;,#+D#(ZU% *(%+ V'& Q&,%&/% A-#& ,-#/( -%B$#A'$ */&/$-#)? Q& -') D##& )('A& ,% S'$,(%; D#
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
61/70
LL
', S'$,(%; V,',# 0'(R '$ ' ;(%$;#(#)6 ,-#3 D%B>-, ' DB/:)/&> %& 2'/& V,(##,? V-# -') %;#) ,-# $-%; 44 )'3$ D#*%(#
,-# ./))#& 0/$ */(# #(B;,#)?
@-#& Q& '&) C/ 'A'3 *(%+ ,-# -%B$#6 Q& $'/)? H-# (#;%(,$ ,-#3 -') -#'()'D%B, ,-# */(# A#(# # ,-', ,-%$# B;)',/&> ,-# $/,# A#(# ', ' :%-D%(6 A-% )/) &%, -'E# ' E#-/-D%(6 -#( R/)$ '&) ' A',#(?
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
62/70
L9
d23 #];#) D3,-#/( %:)#$, )'B>-,#(6 '& '( ,% -#'( ,-# *',# %* ,-#/( -%B$# '&) ;#,$6 ,-# V+'(I/R$ $'/) ,-#3 A#(# B;$#, D3 %**/-,#( ,%:) +# :',#( ,-', ,-# /&$/)# %* ,-# -%B$# -') D##& >:%A/&> %('&>#6e Q&$'/)? Q;;'(#&,:3 ,-# +#,': %& ,-# %B,$/)# -') ,B() ,-# /&$/)# %* ,-# -%B$# /&,% ' >/'&,%E#&? Q:: ,-', A'$ :#*, A'$ ' +#,': $R#:#,%&6 A-/ '& ';'(,+#&, D#-/&) ,-#/(DB$/$$ /& )%A&,%A& S'$,(%;? G, /$ $+':: DB, :# ', ,-# 1'3#,,# W%B&,3 (#>/%&': '/(;%(, ', "'i('&>#6 ,-# $+%R# $##+#) ,% D# *(%+ ,-# >#(':
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
63/70
LP
)/(#-D%(-%%) 'D%B, 78 +/:#$ 'A'3?
T%, '>'/&6 `'&/-,?
V-# '&) -#( -B$D'&) a#& -'$ D##& *%(# ;%/&, /& ,-# 0/;#( W-#(%R## $/&>:#Z#&>/ ;:' ,-', $B&&3 '*,#(&%%&6 `'&/ *%( ,A% %( ,-(## -%B($6 $-# >B#$$#)?
dH-# */(# A'$ D#>/&&/&> ,% >#, /&,% ,-# A%%)$ :/e $-# $'/)? dG, >'E# +# ,-# /)#' ,-', ,-/$ /$>%/&> ,% D# D') /* ,-#3 )%&f, ,-(%A #E#(3,-/&> ,-#3 -'E# ', /,?e
H-#3 *:#A %E#( -#( -%B$# $#E#(': +/:#$ 'A'3 *(%+ ,-# */(#? 1%( &%A6 $-# ,-%B>-,6 A# '(#Ua? H-# A/&) A'$ D:%A/&> ,-# */(# $%B,-A'() '&) -#( -%B$# A'$ ,% ,-# A#$,? Q, ,-# $'+#,/+# $-# &%,#) ,-', D#,A##& ,-# */(# '&) -#( />-D%(-%%) ,-#(# A'$ &%,-/&> DB, A%%)$ ,%*B#: /,? G, A'$ E#(3 ,(%BD:/&>6 $-# $'/)?
S' `'&/:%A %* ,-# */(# /&,-# )/$,'&'& ,'R/&>;(#-, ,-#/( 48Z'-, ,-# */(# $##+#) ,% -,#($ -')>%,,#& /, B&)#( #E#(3,-/&> ,-#A/&) $-/*,#) '&) A'$ %B, %* ,-# $%B,-6 ;B$-/&> ,-# */(# +%(# ,%A'() ,-#/(/>-D%(-%%)? V+%R# $,'(,#) D/::%A/&> '>'/&6 `'&/$ -, '*,#( ,-# 7844 */(# *%( ,-/$ ;B(;%$#6 DB,,-#(# A'$ E#(3 :/,,:# B$'D:# /&*%(+',/%& %B, ,-#(# ,% -#:; B$?e
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
64/70
L5
H-', &/>-, ,-#3 *#'(#) ,-# A%($,? H-#/( -%+# -') #$-, ,-/$*/(# A/,- #E#(3,-/&> ,-#3 -') #'(:3 %&? SB, ,-#3 )/)&f,6e `'&/-,$ /& -/$ DB::)%I#(DB/:)/&> */(# D(#'R$ ,% -#:; ;(%,# A%(R /& ,-# '(#' '&) -#'() 'D%B, ,-# */(#? .# -') -/$ %A& DB::)%I#( '&),%%R /, B;%& -/+$#:* ,% -#:; %B,6e a#& $'/)? d.# )/) ' D#'B,/*B: K%D >(')/&> '(%B&) ,-# -%B$#,% R##; ,-# */(# 'A'3? .# )/) /, /& ,-# +/)):# %* ,-# &/>-, '&) A-/:# ,-# 3'() A'$ %& */(#? @#
? a#& :',#( DB/:, -, -/>-Z;(#$$B(# ;B+;$ '&) A',#( ,'&R$ '&) %,-#(#cB/;+#&, ,% D# (#')3 *%( ,-# ], */(#6 /* '&) A-#& /, (%B&)ZI#(% %* ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(#,-', ('>#) D#,A##& S'$,(%; '&) V+/,-E/::# /& U-, '>(##?
V/#E#(,6 A-% -'$ -/$ %A& DB::)%I/&> DB$/$$ /&S'$,(%;6 A'$ A%(R/&> ' K%D '( W/$,#(& A-#& -# -#'()
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
65/70
LX
,-', ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(# -') >%,,#& %B, %* ,-# )'3 -# )%#$ ':: R/&)$%* K%D$ (#cB/(/&> ' DB::)%I#(6 *(%+ '()#& $;(/&R:#($ (B&&/&>?
dV%+# ;#%;:# +/>-, -'E# ,-%B>-, A# A#(# ,% -#:; R##; ' -%B$# *(%+DB(&/&>6e -# $'/)? H-# -#'(,D(#'R '&) *(B$,(',/%& -# A/,$$#) *(%+ ,-# 7844 */(# -#:;#)+%,/E',# -/+ A-#& ,-# ./))#& 0/$ 1/(# >%, %B, %* -A'3 P4 /& ,-# #'(:3'*,#(&%%& %* UB'() ', ,-# (%') ,% R##; ;#%;:# %B, ,%%R ' :%%R ', ,-# )%I#(6 $+/:#) '&)A'E#) -/+ ,-(%B>-?
dG RA G A'$&f, $B;;%$#) ,% D# >%/&> /& ,-#(# '&) ,-#3 +/>-, >/E# +# ,(%BD:#6e V/#E#(,$'/)? dSB, G A-#& ;#%;:#f$-%+#$ A#(# /& )'&>#(? G ,-%B>-, /* G -D%(-%%) ,% #',6 '&) %&%D'? V%+# %* ,-# ,#(('/& A'$ (%B>-? dSB, ,-#(# /$ &%
;:' D(B$- '&) ,(##$ 'A'3 *(%+ -%+#$6 '&) ,-#& +%E#)%E#( ,% 0%A#:: C%') A-#(# ,-# +%,-#( %* -/$ */'&
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
66/70
98
' $-%E#:? H-#& -# -%;;#) D'-, ,-# */(# ,(B-,#($6 % %* ,-#+ ' D',,':/%&#, D' %**/6 $% ,-#(# A'$ &% A'3 G A'$ &%, >%/&>D' /, A%B:) ,'R# ,% >#, ,-# DB::)%I#( %B, '&) G $'/) 4L +/&B,#$? .# $'/) /* G A'$&f,%B, %* ,-#(# /& 4L +/&B,#$ G A'$ >%/&> ,% K'/:?e
V/#E#(, A#&, D'
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
67/70
94
.# :#'() :',#( ,-', % %* ,-# -%B$#$ -# -') $'E#)6 ,-# % A/,- ,-# DB(&/&> $,#;$6D#:%&>#) ,% a#& '&) `'&/:#Z-'&)#):3 $'E#) %B( -%+#6e `#&R/&$ $'/)? dQ&) %,-#( -%+#$ ,%%?e
G& '::6 9J (#$/)#&,/': $,(B- ' &B+D#( %* -%B$#$ %& '(D3 (%')$6 /&V;(/&> .%::%A H('/: '&) "%&> H('/:6 '(# %& ,-# :/$,?
dGfE# $##& #&%B>- */(#6 DB, /* ,-#(#f$ '&%,-#( % 3%B
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
68/70
97
B#&
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
69/70
9F
U?H?1"U@
4 -,,;goo)(%B>-,+%&/,%(?B&:?#)Bo2';$Q&)N','o2';Q(-,w/&)#]
J -,,;gooAAA?B$%Eo*/(#oA/:):'&)Z*/(#o:#'(&/&>Z#(?-,/&> HB,%(/':e6 Q+#(/-,/&> Q$$%os;'>#x/)vL7
45 "'E#&)#(6 S/::6 dV\QH$ R#3 #:#+#&, /& H#]'$ A/:)*/(#$e6 Q>Q/( ^;)',# Y`B 46 7844[?
4X -,,;goo+#$%A#$,?B,'-?#)Bo/ZD/&o)(%+'&o+#$%xD'$#x)3&?/s;(%)B
-
8/17/2019 Lost Pines Report Final Version
70/70
75 $B;('?6 *& P?
7X -,,;gooR)-A$?-,#($Z*/>-,ZD(B$-Z*/(#Z',Z)'&'Z;#'RZ;'(Ro'(,/B'()$+#&Z*/>-,Z*/(#$ZD#::Z#&