8/9/2019 Losing More Than Afghanistan

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Overoptimistic calculations by Western Powers estimate that we are losing the

war in Afghanistan. Far from it, we are losing the whole of Asia and, what is

even worse, the credibility of the Alliance and the values it defends.

The excellent remarks by Valey Aria in OpenDemocracy’s Afghanistan: one 

conflict, three faces, helps us understand the depth and width of this war. Mostanalyses fail to see the whole picture and what it is at stake here. Not that the

image is blurred or obscured, it is just that we do not dare look at all the

implications. A mere glance at the map shows how Afghanistan seems to

stretch itself so that it is in contact with more nations and troubled zones as if it

delighted itself with problems.

Man has been making war in basically the same way for millennia. We have

tried to disguise it with a coating of respectability and make it look “more

human”. Where did we get the notion that “human” meant bloodless? Even

worse, how could we ever think that we could “civilize” war? War is abou t

winning or losing and there is no greater nonsense than a war between

someone who has nothing to lose and he who has nothing to gain.

Most of Asia is sitting on the stands of the Afghan Stadium watching this absurd

game and sounding their vuvuzelas. NATO and the US are defeating

themselves at a very low cost for competing powers.

Not even the business opportunity which represents the announcement of the

trillion worth mineral richness of Afghan soil has increased interest in the

country. Even McChrystal’s sack had more media coverage.

Neighbors benefit from Afghanistan not using all of its water for lack of

infrastructure but they gain little more than that. The rest of the “stans” to the

North have to endure with Islamic extremists sheltering there and opening new

franchises in Central Asia. Tension is also derived from US presence at Manas

Airport with the Russians staying only a few dozen miles away at Kant and

agreements built and broken on usage rights.

While the situation lasts, resources coming from the “stans” cannot travel South

and they are stuck with Russia and China as their only markets or transit areas.

The gas and oil pipelines projected to link Iran, China, Pakistan and India are

standing by to the delight of the other regional powers.

Pakistan fears that ethnic realignment will split the country in three. That would

not only benefit India, but probably China also. Colonial lines under the British

(Durand’s, in this case) did not take into account the reality on the ground and

most of the wars we are fighting these last decades are the result of Her

Gracious Majesty’s policy back then. 

Paul Rogers argues that NATO and the US are not seen as neutral althoughtheir citizens think of themselves as saviors of the Universe, the white-hat

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cowboys of the movie. While the first part will continue to be so for the

foreseeable future, there is an increasing portion of the population who is no

longer under that illusion.

There is nothing left to be gained in Afghanistan. Not at a reasonable price.

NATO is staking its own credibility in a lose-or-lose game. In a former paper Iwrote about the interest of Asian nations in getting rid of US presence in Asia.

They will not push the Coalition out of Afghanistan but rejoice in its failure and

profit from the outcome.

The West has outstretched itself for years focusing on military power while the

East was growing stronger. NATO is the strongest alliance on Earth but can ill-

afford to challenge Asia in Asia. No one can win that fight.

A fourth way out of Afghanistan might be possible. Ideally, it would include the

SCO taking charge of the stabilization process with some Alliance’s forcesready to cleanse emerging havens of terrorists. Ad-hoc operations of Special

Ops forces instead of massive presence. A very shallow logistical footprint and

business instead of aid.

We are bound to choose the least of two evils. It is either quitting or being

defeated. And we need to keep in mind that there is far more at stake than

Afghanistan itself. The whole Central Asian region, the keystone of the

Heartland is mostly dependent on what happens here.