LOSE LESS AND SELL MORE: Using the ECR Europe Approach

to Manage Shrinkage

Adrian BeckReader in Criminology

University of Leicester, UK

Structure

• Defining Shrinkage• The Scale of the Problem • Key Principles of Effective Shrinkage

Management• A Case Study in Success

Defining Shrinkage

Processfailures

Inter-company

fraud

Internaltheft

Externaltheft

Shrinkage

Original ECR Europe Definition Shrinkage

What Does Shrinkage Mean?

Inter-Company Fraud

Process Failures

Internal Theft

External Theft

Deliberate Under/Over Delivery Invoice Errors Quality and Weight of Items

Inventory Errors Promotion Errors Pricing Errors Stock Going Out of Date Damage to Stock Product Delivery/Scanning Errors Theft of Stock and Cash ‘Grazing’ Collusion

Shoplifting Till Snatches Returning Stolen Goods Burglary ‘Grazing’

New Shrinkage Typology

TOTAL LOSS

Shrinkage Cash Loss

Process Variance

Product Loss

Value Variance

In Auditing

At Checkout

Product Movement

Data Errors

Damage

Spoilage

Internal Theft

External Theft

Reductions

Pricing

Missed Claims

Internal Theft

External Theft

Error

Unknown Loss

Unknown Cash Loss

Scale of the Problem

International ComparisonsYearYear SourceSource SizeSize

2002 National S’market Res. Group (US)

2.32

2004 ECR Europe 1.84

2003 Retail Council of Canada 1.75

2006 Food Marketing Institute (US) 1.69

2006 NRSS (US) 1.59

2002 ECR Australia 1.52

2003 Otago University (New Zealand) 1.50

2006 European Theft Barometer 1.24

2003 Eurohandelinstituts (Germany) 1.23

Shrinkage Retail Iceberg

51%

49%

• Lack of visibility

• Lack of awareness

– When did it happen?

– Where did it happen?

– How did it happen?

– Who was responsible?

• Lack of accountability

• Prioritisation of the most

visible/acceptable

Causes of Retail Stock LossStudy External Internal Process Vendor

Otago Univ (New Zealand) 68 12 20 3

European Theft Barometer 49 31 14 6

ECR Europe 38 28 27 7

Retail Council of Canada 35 40 18 7

Food Marketing Institute (US)

35 38 18 8

ECR Australia 35 25 29 11

NRSS (US) 33 47 15 5

National S’market (US) 20 57 ? ?

Location of the Problem

24%

Manufacturer Distribution

5%

Retail Distribution

71%

Retail Stores

Retailer’s Missed Profit Opportunity

0%

1 %

2 %

3 %

4 %

5 %

Current Potential

Ave

rag

e R

etai

ler

Mar

gin

AverageRetailer

ProfitMargin

2.99%

62% Margin Growth

1.84%

AverageRetailerShrinkMargin

4.83%

1.84%

Shareholder Value

Net Income Shareholder Value

€1 Incremental Sales € 0.15 € 3.00

€1 Inventory Reduction € 0.20 € 4.00

€1 Shrinkage Reduction € 0.70 € 14.00

Calculated by the Cranfield School of Management based upon the following assumptions Sales Margin = 15%; Inventory Holding Costs = 20%; Net Overhead Cost = 30%; Share Price is a Multiple of 20 on Net Income.

Principles of Effective Shrinkage Management

Guiding Principles

• Engage senior management

• Convince them of the opportunity

• Show the impact on the consumer

• Persuade them that a multi functional

approach is required

• Secure resource

Guiding Principles

• Measure the problem

• Data accessibility, timeliness and granularity

• Mining the data warehouse

• Monitor and generate transparency

Data mining...

10p report

14,836,947 products

£12,000,000 shrinkage1.48 billion kr

Cashier error?

Guiding Principles• Promote inter and intra company

collaboration • Who needed to be involved? – Manufacturer

• Design team• Production• Supply Chain• Marketing• Sales

– Retailer• Buyer/Merchandising• Loss Prevention• Supply Chain• Store Operations

– Environmental agency

Before After

End to End Solutions

Guiding Principles

• Adopt a systemic and systematic approach

– The ECR Europe Road Map

ECR Shrinkage Road Map

CORPORATE POLICY

Map & Measure

Develop Solutions

Implement

Evaluate Plan

Analyse

Wake Up

Call!

Crisis-Driven Shrinkage Management

CORPORATE POLICY

Map & Measure

Develop Solutions

Implement

Evaluate Plan

Analyse

Wake Up

Call!

Example Tool: 5 Whys

There is no product on the shelfProblemProblem

2. Why?2. Why? Replenishment team cannot find it

3. Why?3. Why? All packs seem to look the same

1. Why?1. Why? Because it is in the back room

4. Why?4. Why? No differentiation except by barcode

5. Why?5. Why? Pack designed to suit DC operation

ECR Road Map Principles

• Collaborate and engage all stakeholders

• Focus effort on the processes:

Products/Information/Money

• Identify greatest oppportunities then target

root causes

• Remove the opportunity for loss or error

• Encourage evaluation & learning

ECR Road Map Benefits

• Ensures the right resources and people

engaged

• Better and more sustainable results

• Less daunting

• More cost efficient

• Higher probability of success

• Quicker to implement

• Lessons can be reapplied to other problems

Guiding Principles

• Unlock the value of the 'hot' concept– Products– Places– People– Processes

People

Places

Products Processes

Hot Products Example

Benefits of the ‘Hot’ Concept

• Avoids spreading valuable resources too thinly

• Focus on the vital few amongst the trivial many

• Rapid impact

• Greatest return

• Possible diffusion of benefits

Guiding Principles

• Focus on process failures first – Removes opportunity

• Receipt process• Returns

– Masks malicious activity– Delivers

• Quick wins• Cost effective wins• Sustainable solutions

Process Compliance & Shrinkage96%

1.5%

73%

4.7%

56%

4.5%13%

8.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Store 1 Store 2 Store 3 Store 4

ComplianceShrink

Source: Ahold Hypermarkets: Czech: 2004

Guiding Principles

• Encourage innovation and experimentation– Keep ahead of the game– Initiate…….

• Pilot Studies on new ideas• Road Map projects with suppliers• Benchmarking against industry surveys

– Experiment…..• New solutions• New store layouts

– ECR survey showed that retailers who innovated and experimented most had 20% lower shrinkage

Guiding Principles

• Document learning and disseminate success

Measure

Collaborate

Focus on Hot Concept

Innovate

Experiment

Adopt Systemic a Systematic

Approach

Motivate Staff

Start with Non Malicious

Shrink

Disseminate DocumentLearning

Use the Road ECR Road Map

Adherence to

Procedures

Engage SeniorManagement

Guiding Principles

The ECR Road Map in Action:Tesco and P&G Case Study

The Problem - 2003

• Products Locked Up

• Shelf “out of stocks”

Failing to serve the customer and failing to support their businesses

Tesco UK Shrinkage - 2003

Unknown losses at Retail As % of Sales

Health and Beauty 3.0%

Wines and Spirits 1.0%

Clothing 3.0%

Home Entertainment 3.5%

Total Company 1.01%

Tesco - Call to Action• “Got the call” from the very top

• “Licence” to work across functions to reduce

shrinkage

• Permission granted to take drastic action if

needed

Plan

• Hot Products

• Hot Stores

• Look for Internal Process Failures

Hot Products...Health & BeautyProduct This Period Mismatch This Period Sales Counts Waste

Description Gain LossNet mismatch

(Ret Value) SalesMismatch %

Sales RAGBRAUN ORAL B REPL HEAD TWIN PACK (8,475) 41,099 32,624 238,160 13.70% R 70 0.47%BRAUN ORAL B REPLACEMENT HEAD4'S EB17-4 (5,373) 20,596 15,223 73,067 20.83% R 28 0.90%JOHNSONS BABY EXTRACARE WIPES 64 (5,114) 18,975 13,861 607,965 2.28% R 23 0.22%COLGATE WHITENING TOOTHPASTE 100ML (6,041) 18,324 12,283 316,867 3.88% R 59 0.16%OIL OF OLAY TOTAL EFFECTS MST REG 50ML (5,089) 12,962 7,874 43,564 18.07% R 36 0.93%SMA GOLD BABY MILK 900G (3,974) 11,393 7,419 359,183 2.07% R 91 0.14%NIVEA VISAGE ANTI WRINKLE Q10REPAIR CRME 50ML (3,926) 11,300 7,374 28,276 26.08% R 75 0.29%OIL OF OLAY TOTAL EFFECTS NIGHT T/MENT 50M (2,357) 8,770 6,413 24,774 25.89% R 32 2.07%AQUAFRESH MULTI ACTION WHITENINGTOOTHPASTE 100ML (2,739) 9,122 6,383 55,449 11.51% R 29 0.08%CREST SPINBRUSH KIDS BOY/GIRL (1,943) 8,308 6,365 43,751 14.55% R 24 0.32%NUROFEN LIQUID CAPSULES 16'S (1,136) 7,257 6,121 116,935 5.23% R 45 0.37%OIL OF OLAY TOTAL EFFECTS MST F/F 50ML (4,903) 10,653 5,750 31,654 18.16% R 31 1.25%PAMPERS BABY DRYECONOMY PACK JUNIOR 54 (2,885) 8,551 5,666 255,960 2.21% R 89 0.07%SMA PROGRESS FOLLOW ON MILK 900G (2,527) 7,550 5,023 252,922 1.99% G 61 0.12%NUROFEN TABLETS 16S (1,764) 6,653 4,889 217,533 2.25% R 42 0.07%GILLETTE MACH 3 TURBO CARTIDGES 8'S (8,316) 12,979 4,664 234,109 1.99% G 43 0.13%HUGGIES FREEDOM LGE CONVENIENCE PACK 30 (2,628) 7,290 4,661 110,833 4.21% R 122 0.30%CREST SPINBRUSH YOUTH/MULTIANGLEREPLACEABLE HEAD (2,517) 6,840 4,323 40,952 10.56% R 20 0.23%COLGATE ACTIBRUSH KIDS <COLOURED> (7,689) 11,783 4,095 25,428 16.10% R 16 1.02%PAMPERS BABY WIPES REFILL 72 (4,427) 8,465 4,038 163,495 2.47% R 129 0.11%COW & GATE PREMIUM 900G (2,659) 6,650 3,990 134,089 2.98% R 51 0.11%GILLETTE MACH 3 CARTRIDGES 4'S (12,278) 16,232 3,953 254,737 1.55% G 117 0.05%ANADIN EXTRA TABLETS 16'S (1,214) 5,166 3,952 189,994 2.08% R 66 0.19%ORAL B 5000 PROFESSIONAL CARE 3D T/BRUSH (12,212) 16,066 3,855 43,406 8.88% R 21 1.06%

Hot Stores...

STEVENAGE EXTRA 74,274£ RUGBY 60,847£ POTTERS BAR 99,989£ LEICESTER EXTRA 60,359£ HULL 47,343£ HORSHAM 68,492£ SLOUGH EXTRA 56,160£ SOLIHULL 46,599£ AMERSHAM 64,113£ SANDHURST EXTRA 46,804£ CHESTERFIELD 44,347£ HATFIELD 54,574£ PURLEY EXTRA 44,190£ ELY 43,072£ OSTERLEY 53,458£ BURSLEDON TWRS EXTRA 42,969£ HANDFORTH 42,451£ SHOREHAM 49,377£ READING EXTRA 42,709£ CARLISLE 2 40,151£ ELMERS END 49,150£ PRESCOT EXTRA 41,498£ MARTLESHAM 38,697£ LITTLEHAMPTON 47,748£ BOREHAMWOOD EXTRA 41,450£ ROCHDALE 37,913£ SOUTH TOTTENHAM 46,974£ NEW MALDEN EXTRA 40,650£ KETTERING 37,580£ SALISBURY 2 46,708£ ALTRINCHAM EXTRA 38,362£ WORKSOP 36,487£ RICKMANSWORTH 43,891£ NEWCASTLE U/T EXTRA 36,812£ STOKE 36,438£ LUNSFORD PARK 43,274£ YORK TADCASTER ROAD 36,400£ DAVENTRY 35,415£ EVESHAM 41,978£ LEEDS SEACROFT EXTRA 35,154£ BOSTON 35,349£ WOODFORD GREEN 41,601£ WHITSTABLE EXTRA 34,725£ MOLD 34,435£ PETERSFIELD 41,354£ YEADING EXTRA 32,606£ MILTON 34,416£ HELSTON 41,048£ SWINDON EXTRA 31,277£ CLITHEROE 33,189£ TWICKENHAM 40,898£ HAYES BULLS B/DGE EXT 31,042£ DUDLEY 32,893£ SUTTON- CHEAM PK FARM 40,530£ SOUTHPORT EXTRA 28,009£ DEREHAM 32,851£ NEWTON ABBOT 40,407£ NEWBURY 27,826£ GOOLE BOOTHFERRY ROAD 32,696£ WINCHESTER 40,085£ WREXHAM EXTRA 27,823£ POLLOK 31,688£ ASHFORD MIDDLESEX 39,604£ M K KINGSTON EXTRA 27,434£ FALKIRK GRAHAMS ROAD 31,486£ HARLOW EDINBURGH WAY 38,575£

COMPANY SUMMARYHOT STORES BASED ON ALL HOT PRODUCT GROUPS

Extra Superstore North Superstore South

Tesco UK Shrinkage - 2003

Unknown losses at Retail As % of Sales

Health and Beauty 3.0%Wines and Spirits 1.0%

Clothing 3.0%

Home Entertainment 3.5%

Total Company 1.01%

P&G Hot Products - 2003

Unknown losses at Retail As % of Sales

MACH3 9%

OralB Braun 15%

Duracell 20%

Map & MeasurePicking

Shelf

Analyse

• What could go wrong?

• Scored each risk– Severity– Occurrence– Detection

• Assessed root causes for key risks

Solutions Developed

• Secure Supply Chain for top 500 hot products

Solutions Developed

• Secure storage in top 200 stores

• This has become “design” standard and is rolled out in all stores

Solutions Developed

• Modified Packaging to enable product protection in all stores

Solutions Developed

• Introduced regular counting of hot products to measure results

P&G Hot Products

Unknown losses at Retail

2003 2005

MACH3 9% 3%

OralB Braun 15% 9%

Duracell 20% 2.5%

Sales Growth2003 Vs 2005

+27%

+13%

+47%

Tesco UK Shrinkage

Unknown losses at Retail 2003 2005

Health and Beauty 3.0%

Wines and Spirits 1.0%

Clothing 3.0%

Home Entertainment 3.5%

Total Company 1.01%

Tesco UK Shrinkage

Unknown losses at Retail 2003 2005

Health and Beauty 3.0% 1.75%

Wines and Spirits 1.0% 0.95%

Clothing 3.0% 1.75%

Home Entertainment 3.5% 1.5%

Total Company 1.01% 0.69%

Hall of FameOrganisations Locatio

nResults

Tesco UK €143 million annual savings

Tesco & P&G Hungary - 74% losses + 288% sales

B&Q & Plasplugs UK - 50% losses + 33% sales

Feira Nova & Danone Portugal - 45% total shrink

Ahold & sausage suppliers

Poland - 42% losses

Sainsbury’s spirits category

UK - 40% losses + 10% sales

Sonae & Colgate Palmolive

Portugal - 29% losses

Sainsbury’s & Menzies UK - 25% losses + 10% sales

Wickes & GET UK - 7% losses

Organisations whose corporate shrinkage policy have been significantly influenced by ECR Europe

Organisation Sector Location

Adidas Sports goods Northern Europe

Ahold Grocery International

Boots the Chemist Pharmacy UK

DM Pharmacy Germany

Metro Grocery Belgium & Netherlands

P&G Consumer goods International

Tesco Grocery UK & International

Corporate Policy

Concluding Thoughts

• Shrinkage offers an enormous opportunity

• Need to measure the problem accurately

• Need to adopt a systematic and systemic approach

• Collaboration is key

• Solutions need to be ‘fit for purpose’

• Shrinkage is the last free money on the table

Thank you for listening!