long range dust transport and its impact on us air qualitycohemis.uprm.edu/dust/talks/12_slu.pdf ·...
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First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Long range dust transport and its impact on US air quality
Sarah Lu1, Youhua Tang1, Ho‐Chun Huang1, Jeff McQueen1, Arlindo da Silva2, Mian Chin2, Marina Tsidulko1, Jianping Huang1
1: NOAA NCEP 2: NASA GSFC
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
NCEP Global Aerosol Forecast Capability
NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC, NCEP’s global in‐line aerosol system)• NCEP’s NEMS/GFS and GSFC’s GOCART are interactively connected using Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) coupler components
• The NGAC has the capability to forecast dust, sulfate, sea salt, and carbonaceous aerosols
In‐line chemistry advantage• Consistent: No spatial‐temporal interpolation, same physics parameterization• Efficient: Lower overall CPU costs and easier data management• Allows for feedback to meteorology
Outcome of the in‐line aerosol system • Prototype system for NEMS‐Chem‐Ash • Enable NCEP to produce global short‐range chemical weather forecasts• Provide lateral aerosol boundary conditions for regional air quality forecast system• Create aerosol information needed for atmospheric correction in satellite retrievals• Provide a first step toward an aerosol data assimilation capability• Allow NCEP to explore aerosol‐chemistry‐climate in the climate system
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Current State• Near‐real‐time experimental system• 120‐hr dust‐only forecast once per day (00Z), output every 3‐hr
• ICs: Aerosols from previous day forecast and meteorology from operational GDAS
• Operational Implementation targeted for March 2012 Experimental (non‐operational)
NCEP Global Aerosol Forecast Capability
Future Plans• Refine the prototype volcanic ash capability• Use near‐real‐time smoke emission from satellites• Plan toward full package implementation (dust, sea salt, sulfate, and carbonaceous aerosols)• Provide aerosol information for potential downstream users (e.g., NESDIS’s SST retrievals,
CPC‐EPA UV index forecasts; aerosol lateral boundary conditions for NAM‐CMAQ)
Issues and Challenges• Resources• Need of aerosol vertical profiles and speciation observations
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
AOD from NGAC forecasts versus in situ observations (AERONET) and satellite measurements (MODIS) at Key Biscayne and Izana
AERONET
NGAC dust AODMODIS
Coutersy of Luke Jones of ECMWF
We thank Philippe Goloub and Kenneth Voss for the efforts in establishing and maintaining Izana and Key Biscayne site, respectively
Key Biscayne Izana
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
MODIS onboard Terra,from Giovanni online data system (developed and maintained by NASA DISC)
Long‐range dust transport (for July 2010)
T126 L64 NGAC
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Year‐to‐year variability (2010 versus 2011)• Evident trans‐Atlantic dust transport for 2010/2011
• Weaker long range transport of Asian dust to the US west coast for 2011
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
NEWS CHANNEL WPTV (07/15/2010)Dust in the wind‐hazy sky over South FloridaSaharan dust brings hazy conditions
Palm Beach Daily News (07/15/2010)Saharan air mass to dust South Florida this weekend
TCPALM, Florida’s Treasure Coast and Palm Beaches (07/16/2010)Saharan dust may be noticed over South Florida this weekend
StormVisuals (07/19/2010)Saharan air layer dust enhances Florida sunsets
Saharan dust reported by local newspapers …..
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
NAM‐CMAQ Configurationhttp://www.weather.gov/aq
Emissions:• EPA CEM anthropogenic inventories• 2005 base year projected to current year w/ EGU• BEIS V3 Biogenic Emissions
Met Model: • NCEP North American Model (NAM)• Non‐hydrostatic Multi‐scale Model (NMMNMMB)•12 km 60 Levels
AQ Model:•EPA/NOAA Community Model For Air Quality•CMAQ V4.6: 12 km/L22 CONUS Domain
• Operational: CB04 gas‐phase• Experimental: CB05 gas‐phase/Aero‐4 aerosols
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Dust influx at CMAQ boundaries
Dust intrusion event (July 18‐25, 2010)
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
NAM‐CMAQ simulations using LBCs from NGAC
Baseline CMAQ with static LBCs versus experimental CMAQ with dynamic LBCs from NGAC, verified against AIRNOW PM observations
Note: The baseline NAM‐CMAQ PM forecasts are not yet operational(developmental testing).
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Monthly averaged dust influx at NAM‐CMAQ boundaries from NGAC simulations for 2010 July
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Statistic results of the NAM‐CMAQ compared to AIRNOW PM2.5
CMAQ Baseline CMAQ Experimental
Whole domainJuly 1 – Aug 3
MB= ‐2.82Y=1.627+0.583*X R=0.42
MB= ‐0.88Y=3.365+0.600*XR=0.44
South of 38°N, East of ‐105°WJuly 1 – Aug 3
MB= ‐4.54Y=2.169+.442*X R=0.37
MB= ‐1.76Y=2.770+.617*X R=0.41
Whole domainJuly 18– July 30
MB= ‐2.79Y=2.059+0.520*X R=0.31
MB= ‐0.33Y=2.584+0.795*X R=0.37
South of 38°N, East of ‐105°WJuly 18– July 30
MB= ‐4.79Y=2.804+.342*X R=0.27
MB= ‐0.46Y=‐0.415+.980*X R=0.41
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
• NCEP has adopted NASA GOCART model in NEMS GFS for global aerosol modeling. The NEMS now has the capability to forecast dust, sulfate, sea salt, and carbonaceous aerosols.
• Dust simulations from NGAC (the in‐line GFS‐GOCART system) are used as lateral dust BCs for CMAQ‐NAM (an experimental configuration). The inclusion of LBCs from global model prediction is found to improve PM forecasts (e.g., reduced mean biases).
In Conclusion
First International Workshop on the Long‐Range Transport and Impacts of African Dust on the Americas, Oct 6‐7, 2011
Thank you