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London, United Kingdom

2020 Presidential Election Research Six Swing States

12 – 16 September 2020

2

Methodology

Arizona Pennsylvania Sample Size: Fieldwork Dates: Margin of Error:

855 12.09.2020 to 16.09.2020 3.35%

Sample Size: Fieldwork Dates: Margin of Error:

1036 12.09.2020 to 14.09.2020 3.04%

North Carolina Michigan Sample Size: Fieldwork Dates: Margin of Error:

1092 12.09.2020 to 15.09.2020 2.97%

Sample Size: Fieldwork Dates: Margin of Error:

930 12.09.2020 to 14.09.2020 3.21%

Florida Wisconsin Sample Size: Fieldwork Dates: Margin of Error:

1158 12.09.2020 to 14.09.2020 2.88%

Size: Fieldwork Dates: Margin of Error:

636 12.09.2020 to 16.09.2020 3.89%

Interview Method: Online Web Survey (compatible with both computers & smartphones). Survey questions were available in English and Spanish. Populations Sampled: Representative samples of registered voters in Arizona, North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Sampling Method: Representative samples were selected through registered panel providers. Weighting: Data weighted according to the profile of adults (18+) in each state. Data weighted by age, gender, region, education level, race, and 2016 Presidential Election Vote. Targets for age, gender, education, and race were derived from the 2018 American Community Survey 5-Year Estimates.1 Targets for region based on the county-level estimates by the US Census; categorization of counties into regions our own.2 Targets for past vote were derived from the official results of the 2016 Presidential Election. Turnout Weighting: In order to best assess the current voting intention of the public, we asked respondents how likely they are to vote in the Presidential Election on November 3rd, based on a well-defined scale of 0 to 5, where each number is carefully defined as follows: 0 (Definitely will not vote) 1 (Probably will not vote) 2 (Leaning towards not voting, but could vote) 3 (Leaning towards voting, but might not vote) 4 (Probably will vote) 5 (Certain to vote) Their likelihood to vote was then weighted to the subsequent answers they gave when asked whom they would vote for. The voting intention of those who responded ‘5’ were weighted by a factor of 1.0, ‘4’ by a factor of 0.8, ‘3’ by a factor of 0.6, ‘2’ by a factor of 0.4 and ‘1’ by a factor of 0.2. Those who responded ‘0’ were not asked at all whom they would vote, because it was considered that they would not vote. For our voting intention questions for US Senate and State Governor elections, we presented respondents with a separate likelihood to vote question for those specific races in order to weight appropriately. It is important to note that our turnout weighting does not aim to predict turnout itself but only aims to marry respondents’ actual enthusiasm for voting to their stated voting preferences. Those who said they are not registered to vote in the States surveyed were excluded.

1 For age, gender, race and education estimates, see: data.census.gov 2 For county-level data, see: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-counties-total.html

3

Methodology Voting Intention: After being asked their likelihoods to vote, respondents were then asked for whom they will vote in November if they were to vote. The possible responses, presented in a randomized order, were “Donald J. Trump (Republican)”, “Joseph R. Biden (Democrat),” “Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian),” “Howie Hawkins (Green)”, "Other (Third Party/Write-In", and "Don't Know.” The option “Kanye West (Independent)” has previously been included in those states where he could have still qualified to be on the ballot. Those who said they were certain not to vote were not prompted and were counted as 'won't vote.'

Our voting intention results presented here incorporate respondents’ stated likelihood to vote. Margin of Error: Because only a subset of the American population was surveyed for this research, all results are subject to a margin of error. By consequence, not all differences are statistically significant, especially among subsamples. The margin of errors provided above mark the range within which the true value falls if 50.0% of respondents gave a particular answer to a question––the worse-case scenario from the perspective of margin of error––at a 95.0% confidence level. Subsample results from crosstabs are subject to a higher margin of error due to their lower sample sizes. Conclusions drawn from small subsamples should be treated with caution. We particularly emphasize caution when reporting on any subsample figures where the base is below 50 respondents. * Due to rounding, some percentages presented below may add up to 99 or 101. * Questions presented below are shown in the order that they were presented to respondents. Additional information: Redfield & Wilton Strategies is a member of the British Polling Council (BPC) and the American Association for Public Opinion Research and abide by both organisations’ rules.3

3 See: http://www.britishpollingcouncil.org/officers-members/ and https://www.aapor.org/Standards-Ethics/Transparency-Initiative/Current-Members.aspx

4

Presidential Election On a scale from 0 to 5, how likely are you to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) 0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

3% 2% 3% 6% 8% 78%

0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

3% 2% 5% 4% 10% 75%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) I have already voted 0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 12% 72%


3% 5% 6% 4% 10% 72%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) 0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

4% 4% 5% 5% 10% 73%


3% 2% 2% 8% 9% 76%

5

For whom will you vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Donald J. Trump (Republican) Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) Howie Hawkins (Green) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

42% 47% 1% 0% 1% 8%

Donald J. Trump (Republican) Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) Howie Hawkins (Green) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

44% 49% 1% 1% 0% 5%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Donald J. Trump (Republican) Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) Howie Hawkins (Green) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

45% 47% 1% 1% 0% 5%


39% 49% 2% 1% 0% 9%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Donald J. Trump (Republican) Joseph R. Biden (Democrat) Jo Jorgensen (Libertarian) Howie Hawkins (Green) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

44% 47% 1% 1% 1% 6%


41% 47% 1% 1% 1% 10%

6

How certain, if at all, are you now that you will indeed vote for the candidate you have just selected over the other candidates presented? (Asked to those who say they will vote, except those that do not know who they will vote for.)

Arizona (n = 741) Pennsylvania (n = 936) 0 – Not at all certain 1 – Somewhat certain 2 – Moderately certain 3 – Extremely certain

1% 7% 15% 77%

0 – Not at all certain 1 – Somewhat certain 2 – Moderately certain 3 – Extremely certain

1% 8% 14% 77%

North Carolina (n = 982) Michigan (n = 796) 0 – Not at all certain 1 – Somewhat certain 2 – Moderately certain 3 – Extremely certain

1% 8% 15% 76%


2% 7% 16% 76%

Florida (n = 1021) Wisconsin (n = 552) 0 – Not at all certain 1 – Somewhat certain 2 – Moderately certain 3 – Extremely certain

1% 7% 14% 78%


0% 5% 16% 78%

7

Comparison to Past Results If you are to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020, how will you vote? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona

June

July

August

Early September

Mid- September


39% 43% 2% 1% 2% 13%

38% 46% 2% 1% 1% 11%

38% 47% 2% 1% 1% 10%

43% 48% 0% 1% 0% 6%

42% 47% 1% 0% 1% 8%

North Carolina

June

July

August

Early September

Mid- September


40% 46% 1% 0% 1% 11%

42% 43% 2% 1% 1% 11%

46% 44% 2% 0% 1% 7%

44% 43% 1% 1% 1% 9%

45% 47% 1% 1% 0% 5%

Florida

June

July

August

Early September

Mid- September


41% 45% 1% 1% 1% 11%

41% 48% 1% 1% 1% 8%

41% 49% 1% 1% 1% 7%

44% 47% 1% 1% 1% 6%

44% 47% 1% 1% 1% 6%

Pennsylvania

June

July

August

Early September

Mid- September


39% 49% 1% 1% 1% 9%

41% 48% 1% 0% 1% 8%

41% 48% 1% 1% 1% 8%

43% 48% 1% 1% 1% 7%

44% 49% 1% 1% 0% 5%

8

Michigan

June

July

August

Early September

Mid- September


36% 47% 2% 1% 2% 12%

37% 49% 1% 1% 2% 10%

38% 50% 1% 1% 1% 9%

40% 51% 1% 0% 1% 7%

39% 49% 2% 1% 0% 9%

Wisconsin

June

July

August

Early September

Mid- September


36% 45% 1% 1% 2% 15%

35% 45% 2% 0% 1% 15%

39% 49% 1% 1% 1% 7%

41% 50% 2% 0% 0% 6%

41% 47% 1% 1% 1% 10%

9

US Senate Election How likely are you to vote in the US Senate Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 855) Michigan (n = 930) 0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

3% 2% 5% 7% 13% 71%


3% 5% 6% 5% 14% 67%

North Carolina (n = 1092) I have already voted 0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

2% 3% 4% 3% 6% 13% 69%

If you are to vote in the US Senate Election on 3 November 2020, how will you vote? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 855) Michigan (n = 930) Martha McSally (Republican) Mark Kelly (Democrat) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

35% 52% 2% 11%

John James (Republican) Gary Peters (Democrat) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

35% 51% 2% 11%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Thom Tillis (Republican) Cal Cunningham (Democrat) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

38% 49% 4% 9%

10

North Carolina Governor Election How likely are you to vote in the North Carolina State Governor Election on 3 November 2020? (n = 1092)

I have already voted 0 (I will definitely not vote) 1 (I will probably not vote) 2 (I will lean towards not voting, but I might still vote) 3 (I will lean towards voting, but I might not vote) 4 (I will probably vote) 5 (I will certainly vote)

2% 3% 4% 2% 6% 13% 69%

If you are to vote in the North Carolina State Governor Election on 3 November 2020, how will you vote? (Answer codes were randomized.) (n = 1092)

Dan Forest (Republican) Roy Cooper (Democrat) Other (Another Third Party/Write-In) Don’t Know

36% 55% 2% 7%

11

Follow-Up Questions

On a scale from 0 to 5, how comfortable would you feel sharing with your friends and family how you intend to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) 0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

6% 5% 6% 11% 20% 47% 5%

0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

5% 3% 8% 10% 19% 52% 3%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) 0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

5% 5% 7% 10% 23% 48% 4%


7% 4% 9% 10% 18% 47% 5%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) 0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

7% 5% 7% 10% 18% 51% 3%


7% 5% 10% 11% 21% 42% 4%

12

Do your family and closest friends know whether and how you intend to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020?

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Yes, most, if not all, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. Yes, some of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. No, none, or close to none, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year.

50% 31% 19%

Yes, most, if not all, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. Yes, some of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. No, none, or close to none, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year.

55% 32% 13%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Yes, most, if not all, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. Yes, some of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. No, none, or close to none, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year.

50% 32% 18%


53% 30% 17%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Yes, most, if not all, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. Yes, some of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year. No, none, or close to none, of my family and closest friends know how I am voting this year.

57% 29% 14%


51% 34% 16%

13

Voting Method If you are to vote, by what means are you most likely to vote in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to all but those who say they will not vote.)

Arizona (n = 831) Pennsylvania (n = 1001) In person, on election day In person, prior to election day By mail (absentee ballot) Don’t know

20% 9% 65% 6%

In person, on election day By mail (absentee ballot) Don’t know

57% 37% 5%

North Carolina (n = 1061) Michigan (n = 901) In person, on election day In person, prior to election day By mail (absentee ballot) Don’t know

31% 36% 26% 7%

In person, on election day In person, prior to election day By mail (absentee ballot) Don’t know

34% 10% 49% 7%

Florida (n = 1116) Wisconsin (n = 614) In person, on election day In person, prior to election day By mail (absentee ballot) Don’t know

30% 23% 40% 6%

In person, on election day In person, prior to election day By mail (absentee ballot) Don’t know

43% 16% 37% 5%

14

Considering the coronavirus situation in your state, on a scale of 0 to 5, to what extent do you think you would feel comfortable voting in person in November? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to all but those who say they will not vote.)

Arizona (n = 831) Pennsylvania (n = 1001) 0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

18% 15% 15% 11% 15% 25% 2%


10% 11% 12% 11% 17% 38% 2%

North Carolina (n = 1036) Michigan (n = 901) 0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

7% 10% 15% 16% 24% 26% 2%


12% 12% 14% 15% 15% 30% 3%

Florida (n = 1116) Wisconsin (n = 614) 0 – Very uncomfortable 1 – Uncomfortable 2 – Slightly more uncomfortable than comfortable 3 – Slightly more comfortable than uncomfortable 4 – Comfortable 5 – Very comfortable Don’t know

13% 12% 16% 12% 18% 29% 2%


12% 10% 14% 12% 22% 24% 5%

15

To what extent do you approve or disapprove of President Donald Trump’s overall job performance since he became President?

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Strongly approve Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know

24% 16% 9% 9% 42% 1%

Strongly approve Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know

23% 20% 8% 9% 40% 1%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Strongly approve Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know

23% 21% 9% 7% 39% 1%


21% 15% 9% 7% 46% 2%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Strongly approve Approve Neither approve nor disapprove Disapprove Strongly disapprove Don’t know

26% 17% 7% 10% 38% 1%


19% 19% 6% 12% 42% 1%

To what extent do you approve or disapprove of your State Governor’s overall job performance since he/she became Governor?


10% 24% 21% 23% 19% 2%


16% 33% 16% 13% 19% 2%


23% 32% 16% 12% 13% 4%


31% 24% 11% 11% 22% 2%


19% 22% 15% 16% 26% 3%


13% 29% 17% 17% 20% 3%

16

At this moment, between the candidates of the two main political parties, who do you think is more likely to win the 2020 Presidential Election? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Joe Biden is more likely to win. Donald Trump is more likely to win. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally likely to win. Don’t know.

33% 36% 12% 19%

Joe Biden is more likely to win. Donald Trump is more likely to win. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally likely to win. Don’t know.

38% 36% 13% 13%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Joe Biden is more likely to win. Donald Trump is more likely to win. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally likely to win. Don’t know.

35% 37% 12% 16%


33% 36% 13% 19%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Joe Biden is more likely to win. Donald Trump is more likely to win. Joe Biden and Donald Trump are equally likely to win. Don’t know.

32% 38% 15% 15%


34% 29% 21% 16%

17

You have indicated that you will vote for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. How enthusiastic, if at all, are you about voting for him? (Asked to those who responded Donald Trump to voting intention.)

Arizona (n = 343) Pennsylvania (n = 415) 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

8% 14% 21% 58%

0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

3% 13% 25% 59%

North Carolina (n = 461) Michigan (n = 323) 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

6% 14% 25% 54%


3% 11% 21% 64%

Florida (n = 469) Wisconsin (n = 238) 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

3% 12% 23% 61%


5% 11% 26% 58%

You have indicated that you will vote for Donald Trump in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. Would you say you are voting for him primarily because you support Donald Trump or primarily because you do not support his Democratic opponent Joe Biden? (Asked to those who responded Donald Trump to voting intention. Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 343) Pennsylvania (n = 415) Primarily because I support Donald Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden.

75% 25%

Primarily because I support Donald Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden.

83% 17%

North Carolina (n = 461) Michigan (n = 323) Primarily because I support Donald Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden.

72% 28%


80% 20%

Florida (n = 469) Wisconsin (n = 238) Primarily because I support Donald Trump. Primarily because I oppose Joe Biden.

75% 25%


73% 27%

18

Around when did you decide you were going to vote for Donald Trump? (Asked to those who responded Donald Trump to voting intention.)

Arizona (n = 343) Pennsylvania (n = 415) Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

8% 10% 14% 10% 55% 1%

Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

6% 7% 17% 10% 59% 3%

North Carolina (n = 461) Michigan (n = 323) Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

6% 8% 14% 12% 59% 1%


7% 9% 9% 12% 61% 3%

Florida (n = 469) Wisconsin (n = 238) Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

6% 13% 12% 11% 57% 2%


4% 9% 14% 13% 59% 1%

19

You have indicated that you will vote for Joe Biden in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. How enthusiastic, if at all, are you about voting for him? (Asked to those who responded Joe Biden to voting intention.)

Arizona (n = 365) Pennsylvania (n = 483) 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

6% 14% 23% 57%


5% 16% 33% 46%

North Carolina (n =495) Michigan (n = 431) 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

3% 20% 33% 44%


5% 16% 29% 49%

Florida (n = 507) Wisconsin (n = 287) 0 (Not at all enthusiastic) 1 (Somewhat enthusiastic) 2 (Moderately enthusiastic) 3 (Very enthusiastic)

6% 17% 27% 51%


8% 26% 26% 41%

You have indicated that you will vote for Joe Biden in the Presidential Election on 3 November 2020. Would you say you are voting for him primarily because you support Joe Biden or primarily because you do not support his Republican opponent Donald Trump? (Asked to those who responded Joe Biden to voting intention. Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 365) Pennsylvania (n = 483) Primarily because I support Joe Biden. Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump.

51% 49%

Primarily because I support Joe Biden. Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump.

56% 44%

North Carolina (n = 495) Michigan (n = 431) Primarily because I support Joe Biden. Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump.

58% 42%


56% 44%

Florida (n = 507) Wisconsin (n = 287) Primarily because I support Joe Biden. Primarily because I oppose Donald Trump.

53% 47%


44% 56%

20

Around when did you decide you were going to vote for Joe Biden (or prior to his nomination, the Democratic nominee)? (Asked to those who responded Joe Biden to voting intention.) 4

Arizona (n = 365) Michigan (n = 431) Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

10% 17% 32% 15% 24% 2%


7% 16% 21% 22% 33% 1%

North Carolina (n = 495) Wisconsin (n = 287) Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

10% 14% 25% 21% 29% 1%


5% 17% 26% 20% 30% 1%

Florida (n = 507) Sometime in the past month Between one month and three months ago Between three and six months ago Between six months and a year ago More than a year ago When I was prompted the question as I filled out this survey

10% 14% 25% 21% 29% 1%

4 Due to an error in the poll scripting process, this question was not presented to respondents in Pennsylvania.

21

Candidate Characteristics Thinking about Donald Trump, please indicate whether you think he could be characterized in the following way: Donald Trump is someone who…

Arizona (n = 855) Yes No DK Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with Democrats where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

44% 35% 31% 48% 46% 43% 42% 51% 52% 37% 43% 41% 45% 41% 33% 40% 38%

51% 58% 59% 46% 48% 47% 53% 41% 36% 51% 49% 47% 47% 50% 57% 46% 45%

5% 7% 10% 5% 6% 10% 6% 7% 13% 11% 8% 12% 7% 9% 10% 13% 17%

Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with Democrats where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

46% 38% 30% 47% 47% 43% 43% 51% 55% 36% 44% 43% 44% 41% 33% 42% 41%

50% 55% 59% 47% 48% 51% 51% 42% 35% 54% 49% 48% 50% 52% 58% 46% 48%

4% 7% 11% 5% 5% 6% 6% 7% 11% 9% 7% 9% 6% 7% 9% 12% 11%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Yes No DK Michigan (n = 930) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with Democrats where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

49% 39% 32% 50% 49% 43% 45% 50% 55% 37% 46% 44% 47% 43% 37% 43% 40%

48% 53% 56% 45% 45% 48% 49% 42% 35% 50% 46% 42% 47% 48% 53% 45%

46%

3% 9% 13% 6% 6% 9% 6% 8% 9% 12% 8% 14% 6% 9% 10% 12% 14%


41% 34% 27% 45% 43% 39% 39% 45% 48% 34% 41% 36% 41% 39% 31% 38% 34%

55% 59% 63% 49% 52% 53% 55% 47% 38% 57% 52% 50% 52% 54% 60% 50% 52%

4% 7% 10% 6% 5% 8% 6% 8% 14% 10% 7% 13% 7% 6% 9% 12% 14%

Continued on next page.

22

Florida (n = 1158) Yes No DK Wisconsin (n = 636) Yes No DK


48% 39% 33% 49% 48% 44% 45% 51% 54% 39% 46% 43% 46% 43% 37% 43% 41%

48% 53% 56% 46% 47% 49% 49% 41% 35% 50% 47% 46% 47% 51% 52% 45% 46%

4% 8% 11% 5% 5% 7% 6% 7% 11% 11% 7% 11% 7% 6% 10% 12% 13%


44% 34% 29% 48% 46% 41% 40% 51% 54% 33% 46% 40% 43% 42% 32% 40% 37%

51% 60% 61% 46% 48% 51% 54% 41% 36% 57% 48% 48% 50% 52% 58% 48% 51%

5% 6% 11% 6% 5% 8% 6% 7% 10% 10% 6% 12% 7% 5% 10% 12% 12%

*DK = Don’t Know

23

Thinking about Joe Biden, please indicate whether you think he could be characterized in the following way: Joe Biden is someone who…

Arizona (n = 855) Yes No DK Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

44% 53% 42% 47% 53% 49% 52% 43% 32% 54% 51% 37% 48% 41% 47% 44% 40%

43% 36% 42% 39% 38% 33% 34% 39% 42% 31% 36% 43% 38% 37% 38% 30% 35%

13% 11% 16% 15% 9% 18% 14% 18% 27% 15% 13% 20% 13% 22% 14% 25% 25%

Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

46% 51% 46% 47% 53% 51% 54% 46% 33% 51% 49% 37% 47% 44% 47% 46% 43%

47% 41% 41% 44% 39% 35% 40% 43% 48% 35% 42% 47% 42% 41% 41% 35% 41%

11% 9% 13% 10% 8% 14% 6% 11% 19% 13% 9% 15% 10% 15% 12% 19% 16%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Yes No DK Michigan (n = 930) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

44% 49% 43% 44% 51% 49% 52% 40% 32% 52% 46% 36% 46% 41% 46% 44% 42%

45% 40% 41%42% 39% 35% 37% 43% 47% 34% 42% 46% 40% 41% 40% 33% 38%

11% 11% 16% 14% 10% 16% 11% 17% 21% 14% 12% 19% 15% 19% 13% 22% 20%


46% 51% 43% 45% 55% 49% 53% 42% 32% 52% 48% 39% 48% 40% 46% 43% 45%

41% 38% 39% 40% 35% 32% 35% 40% 44% 30% 38% 43% 37% 37% 38% 32% 35%

13% 11% 18% 15% 10% 19% 12% 18% 23% 18% 14% 18% 14% 23% 16% 25% 21%


24

Florida (n = 1158) Yes No DK Wisconsin (n = 636) Yes No DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

47% 54% 46% 48% 54% 53% 56% 44% 35% 54% 51% 39% 50% 44% 49% 48% 47%

41% 35% 38% 40% 35% 33% 35% 39% 44% 32% 38% 42% 39% 37% 37% 32% 34%

12% 11% 16% 13% 11% 15% 9% 16% 21% 14% 12% 19% 11% 19% 14% 20% 19%


43% 54% 44% 46% 54% 54% 56% 44% 29% 52% 48% 34% 49% 42% 47% 47% 44%

47% 36% 39% 38% 36% 31% 35% 41% 47% 33% 41% 44% 40% 39% 39% 29% 35%

11% 10% 17% 16% 10% 15% 9% 16% 24% 15% 12% 22% 11% 19% 13% 23% 21%

*DK = Don’t Know

25

Now, between Joe Biden and Donald Trump, which candidate do you think best embodies the following characteristics:

Arizona (n = 855) JB DT DK Pennsylvania (n = 1036) JB DT DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

45% 51% 47% 44% 47% 48% 50% 41% 34% 50% 48% 38% 44% 42% 48% 43% 41%

43% 35% 33% 45% 42% 39% 39% 45% 48% 33% 37% 40% 41% 38% 32% 35% 36%

12% 14% 21% 11% 10% 13% 11% 14% 18% 17% 15% 22% 15% 20% 20% 22% 23%


48% 53% 50% 46% 53% 48% 53% 44% 36% 52% 50% 40% 50% 46% 52% 46% 46%

44% 39% 32% 44% 41% 43% 39% 48% 49% 35% 38% 43% 41% 41% 32% 38% 39%

9% 8% 18% 10% 7% 10% 8% 9% 16% 13% 12% 17% 9% 13% 16% 15% 14%

North Carolina (n = 1092) JB DT DK Michigan (n = 930) JB DT DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

43% 49% 45% 44% 47% 47% 47% 40% 34% 49% 46% 40% 45% 42% 48% 44% 43%

47% 40% 34%47% 45% 43% 43% 49% 51% 38% 42% 42% 45% 44% 37% 40% 40%

10% 11% 21% 9% 8% 10% 10% 12% 15% 13% 13% 19% 10% 14% 15% 16% 17%


45% 51% 48% 45% 49% 47% 49% 43% 33% 51% 47% 39% 48% 44% 48% 44% 43%

41% 35% 30% 43% 39% 37% 38% 42% 46% 32% 36% 38% 39% 37% 32% 33% 35%

15% 14% 22% 12% 13% 16% 12% 14% 21% 16% 17% 23% 13% 19% 21% 22% 22%


26

Florida (n = 1158) JB DT DK Wisconsin (n = 636) JB DT DK Is a strong leader. Cares about people like me. Tells the truth. Knows how to get things done. Stands up for the interests of the United States. Can work with foreign leaders. Understands the problems afflicting America. Can get the economy going again. Will be tough on China. Is willing to work with the other party where possible. Represents change. Is in good physical and mental health. Reflects America’s can-do spirit. Does what he promises to do. Can bring Americans together. Avoids unnecessary military conflicts. Will pick the best Supreme Court Justices.

45% 50% 46% 45% 48% 47% 50% 41% 33% 49% 45% 38% 47% 44% 48% 46% 44%

44% 38% 35% 45% 44% 42% 41% 46% 51% 38% 41% 41% 42% 41% 36% 39% 39%

11% 11% 19% 10% 8% 11% 9% 12% 16% 13% 14% 21% 11% 15% 16% 15% 17%


44% 52% 47% 46% 50% 47% 51% 40% 29% 52% 47% 36% 46% 43% 49% 47% 42%

45% 36% 32% 44% 44% 41% 38% 48% 53% 31% 40% 40% 44% 42% 31% 37% 38%

11% 11% 21% 11% 6% 12% 11% 12% 18% 18% 14% 24% 9% 15% 19% 16% 21%

*JB = Joe Biden

*DT = Donald Trump *DK = Don’t Know

27

Key Policy Areas Which of the following key policy areas is most likely to determine how you will vote in the November Presidential Election? (Answer codes were randomized. Asked to all but those who say they will not vote.)

Arizona (n = 831) Pennsylvania (n = 1001) The Economy Foreign Policy Healthcare Immigration Education Electoral Reform The Environment Judicial Appointments Law & Order Housing Other Don’t know

26% 1% 20% 9% 4% 2% 9% 2% 10% 1% 7% 8%

The Economy Foreign Policy Healthcare Immigration Education Electoral Reform The Environment Judicial Appointments Law & Order Housing Other Don’t know

31% 1% 23% 7% 4% 1% 6% 3% 9% 2% 8% 6%

North Carolina (n = 1061) Michigan (n = 901) The Economy Foreign Policy Healthcare Immigration Education Electoral Reform The Environment Judicial Appointments Law & Order Housing Other Don’t know

35% 3% 22% 5% 3% 1% 4% 3% 9% 2% 6% 6%


30% 1% 25% 4% 5% 1% 5% 2% 7% 1% 9% 9%

Florida (n = 1116) Wisconsin (n = 614) The Economy Foreign Policy Healthcare Immigration Education Electoral Reform The Environment Judicial Appointments Law & Order Housing Other Don’t know

30% 3% 21% 7% 4% 2% 6% 3% 10% 2% 7% 6%


32% 2% 23% 5% 3% 1% 6% 2% 12% 1% 6% 6%

28

Coronavirus Pandemic At the moment, would you feel safe or not safe if you did the following: Eating at a restaurant or drinking at a bar inside.

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Safe Unsafe Don’t know

36% 55% 9%

Safe Unsafe Don’t know

40% 51% 8%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Safe Unsafe Don’t know

39% 53% 8%


38% 50% 11%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Safe Unsafe Don’t know

39% 52% 9%


41% 51% 8%

At the moment, would you feel safe or not safe if you did the following: Eating at a restaurant or drinking at a bar outside.

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Safe Unsafe Don’t know

48% 43% 10%


55% 34% 11%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Safe Unsafe Don’t know

53% 38% 9%


57% 31% 12%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Safe Unsafe Don’t know

48% 41% 11%


61% 30% 9%

29

How often, if at all, do you wear a mask to cover your mouth and nose when you: leave your home?

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

61% 18% 10% 5% 5% 1%

Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

54% 21% 12% 7% 5% 1%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

60% 19% 12% 5% 4% 1%


56% 22% 10% 6% 6% 1%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

61% 17% 11% 6% 4% 1%


45% 25% 16% 6% 8% 0%

How often, if at all, do you wear a mask to cover your mouth and nose when you: shop at the supermarket?

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

76% 8% 5% 4% 3% 4%


78% 8% 5% 4% 2% 2%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

73% 9% 9% 3% 3% 3%


75% 9% 6% 4% 3% 3%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Always Most of the time Sometimes Rarely Never Not Applicable

75% 9% 7% 4% 2% 2%


77% 9% 6% 3% 3% 2%

30

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The coronavirus situation in the United States is coming under control.

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

15% 20% 22% 20% 21% 2%

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

14% 19% 23% 22% 22% 1%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

11% 21% 23% 24% 19% 2%


13% 18% 24% 20% 23% 3%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree Don’t know

13% 23% 22% 22% 18% 2%


9% 12% 25% 28% 24% 2%

With respects to the timeline of the coronavirus pandemic, where do you feel the United States is at the moment? (Answer codes were randomized)

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) The worst is yet to come The worst is behind us Don’t know

37% 33% 31%

The worst is yet to come The worst is behind us Don’t know

38% 35% 26%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 811) The worst is yet to come The worst is behind us Don’t know

42% 29% 29%


39% 31% 29%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) The worst is yet to come The worst is behind us Don’t know

38% 34% 28%


47% 27% 26%

31

Governor Approval Ratings Thinking specifically about the situation in your state, to what extent do you approve or disapprove of your State Governor’s handling of the coronavirus crisis?


9% 23% 21% 23% 21% 3%


16% 36% 16% 11% 19% 2%


19% 34% 19% 13% 12% 3%


31% 26% 10% 10% 21% 3%


17% 22% 15% 16% 27% 3%


15% 31% 17% 17% 17% 2%

32

Handling of Coronavirus In your opinion, if Joe Biden had been President, do you think he would have handled the coronavirus pandemic better, worse, or with no difference? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) Better Worse No difference Don’t know

47% 28% 14% 12%

Better Worse No difference Don’t know

44% 28% 17% 12%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) Better Worse No difference Don’t know

40% 31% 16% 13%


45% 25% 16% 15%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) Better Worse No difference Don’t know

44% 26% 15% 14%


44% 25% 18% 13%

33

Law and Order To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The destruction of property is violence.


59% 23% 11% 3% 3% 1%


58% 27% 7% 4% 3% 1%


56% 28% 8% 4% 3% 2%


61% 19% 10% 3% 3% 3%


60% 23% 10% 4% 2% 2%


64% 19% 9% 3% 4% 1%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The vast majority of police officers are good, but a few bad apples give them a bad reputation.


50% 28% 11% 7% 3% 1%


45% 32% 12% 5% 4% 1%


45% 35% 10% 6% 3% 2%


49% 27% 10% 7% 4% 3%


49% 29% 10% 7% 3% 1%


49% 33% 9% 7% 3% 0%

34

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The police force in my state is institutionally racist.


7% 17% 25% 18% 27% 6%


9% 13% 23% 20% 28% 7%


8% 18% 23% 20% 26% 4%


7% 14% 23% 20% 26% 9%


12% 17% 23% 20% 23% 5%


6% 17% 24% 21% 28% 4%

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the calls to "defund the police"?


7% 9% 15% 17% 47% 5%


7% 15% 16% 13% 48% 2%


7% 13% 16% 16% 45% 3%


8% 13% 14% 15% 44% 5%


9% 14% 16% 16% 41% 3%


7% 14% 10% 18% 48% 3%

35

To what extent, if at all, do you agree or disagree with the following statement: The riots that have occurred across the United States will end if Donald Trump loses the election in November.


11% 13% 23% 22% 23% 9%


10% 16% 28% 21% 20% 6%


12% 17% 22% 22% 21% 7%


11% 15% 23% 25% 18% 8%


15% 17% 22% 18% 21% 7%


6% 14% 26% 23% 22% 8%

In your opinion, which political party would enact the best policies on policing and security in your state? (Answer codes were randomized.)

Arizona (n = 855) Pennsylvania (n = 1036) The Democratic Party The Republican Party Don’t know

38% 40% 22%

The Democratic Party The Republican Party Don’t know

45% 40% 15%

North Carolina (n = 1092) Michigan (n = 930) The Democratic Party The Republican Party Don’t know

40% 40% 20%


42% 34% 25%

Florida (n = 1158) Wisconsin (n = 636) The Democratic Party The Republican Party Don’t know

41% 40% 19%


40% 39% 20%

london, united kingdom 2020 presidential election research ... · the worst is behind us don’t...

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