lokakarya bappenas-giz sutip
DESCRIPTION
Lokakarya Bappenas-GIZ SutipTRANSCRIPT
RPJMN 2015-2019
Setting Urban Transport
in the Mainstream
Prof. Suyono Dikun, PhD Lokakarya Transportasi Perkotaan Dalam RPJMN
Bappenas-GIZ, Jakarta, 29 January 2015
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
2
238
248
258
268
278
288
298
308
When population soars it is the time
transport becomes a part of the solution
Indonesia Population Milestone
Year Population
2010 238.5 mil.
2015 255.5 mil.
2020 271.1 mil.
2025 284.8 mil.
2030 296.4 mil.
2035 305.6 mil.
Indonesia Population Projection 2010-2035 (mil.) Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, Oct. 2013
Indonesia population keeps increasing from time to time
This will bring great and complex consequences on transport system.
Intercities, interislands, interregions even intraregion economic movements will create huge burdens on the existing transport system networks
Generated new demand resulted from economic growth can no longer be served by the system.
Clearly send the signal of emergency of Indonesia transport
Population could have reached 350 million in 2045. No big deal. It is not the problem of population. It is the problem of governments in the past of not being able to disperse the population out of Jawa. Indonesia still have vast land areas. On national scale, urbanization rate will reach 66,6% in the average of the total population in 2035. This is mainly because our rural economy keeps declining and rural transport is not well developed. This means more than 200 million people will live in urban and urbanized areas 20 years from now. What is the future of our rural areas and cities? .
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
3
Population imbalances. With only 6% of total land
area, Jawa will still be the home of 55% of total
population (159 mil. in 2025)
Distribution of Population by Regions 2010-2035 (mil.) Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013
Population imbalance is persistent. Indonesia population in the next 20-30 years would still be concentrated in Jawa. It goes almost unnoticed that the carrying capacity of Jawa in supporting good quality lifes of its population has been declining from time to time. The fertile land had been converted to non-agriculture land, some of them become unproductive critical land generating erosion, landslide, and flood to the rest of the area, destructing watershed, and endangering food sustainability. Jawa is also vulnerable to the shortage of natural and mineral resources, big flood, drought, and the declining of raw water deposit.
50,9 55,3 59,4 62,9 66 69
137 145 153 159 164 168
13,214,1
15,115,9 16,8 17,5
13,915,4
16,818,1
19,3 20,4
17,518,7
2021,1
2222,7
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Papua
Maluku
Sulawesi
Kalimantan
Bali dan NusaTenggaraJawa
Sumatera
BANDUNG
Jawa Barat
JAKARTA
SERANG
SURABAYA
SEMARANG
DKI
Banten
Jawa TengahJawa Timur
YOGYAKARTADIY
Merak
Bogor
Sukabumi
Cikampek
PadalarangCirebon
Banjar
Kroya
Tegal
Purwokerto
Pekalongan
Solo
Madiun Kertosono
Blitar
Malang
Bangil
Sidoarjo
Bojonegoro
Jember
Banyuwangi
Bojonegoro
Gambringan
Bojonegoro
Gundih
Prupuk
Kutoarjo
BANDUNG
Jawa Barat
JAKARTA
SERANG
SURABAYA
SEMARANG
DKI
Banten
Jawa TengahJawa Timur
YOGYAKARTADIY
Merak
Bogor
Sukabumi
Cikampek
PadalarangCirebon
Banjar
Kroya
Tegal
Purwokerto
Pekalongan
Solo
Madiun Kertosono
Blitar
Malang
Bangil
Sidoarjo
Bojonegoro
Jember
Banyuwangi
Bojonegoro
Gambringan
Bojonegoro
Gundih
Prupuk
Kutoarjo
2010 137
millions
2015 145
millions
2020 153
millions
2025 159
millions
2030 164
millions
2035 168
millions
Projection of Jawa Population 2010-2035
Source: Bappenas-BPS-UNFPA, October 2013
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
4
What forces triggered the massive movement of people from rural to urban areas? The answers are obvious. First, is the marginalization of rural economy where agriculture, the biggest sector absorbing workforce so far, has consistently declined, forcing farmers and peasants to sell their agricultural land and gradually turning them into landless sporadic workers. When they have spent up their money for consumption purposes and finally found that rural economy can no longer provide opportunity for them to survive, they invade urban areas as the last resort to earn money with whatever means they have. Rural transport, believed to be a factor triggering rural economy has been sidelined from the major transport undertakings.
Urbanization is masive, persistent, and its fundamental
problems remain unsolved
In 2025 Jawa population will reach 159 millions, out of which 74.6% will live in urban areas. This will bring a great burdens and complexity to transport system network in Jawa, now already in oversaturated and overburden stage. North Jawa corridor had never been and will always be in unstable condition due to overloading and other economic pressures. The current rail system is far from adequate to serve millions of passengers. Jawa is strong in its economic contribution to the national GDP but weak in its carrying capacity.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
5
Regional economic disparity is latent, out of the
mainstream, and nearly untouched
23,54%
58,86%
82,40%
17,60%
0
20
40
60
80
100
Sumatera Jawa Bali KBI KTI
Distribution of GRDP Average in many years
Source: Regional Development in Numbers,
Bappenas, 2012
0
2
4
6
8
10
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Sumatera Jawa Bali Kalimantan
Sulawesi Nusa Tenggara Maluku-Malut
Papua
Regional Growth
2007-2012 (%)
Source: Regonal
Development in
Numbers
Bappenas,
2012
Bappenas 2012 data illustrates the facts that economy in several regions grew above the national average of 6.3%. Thus there had been a great
anomaly in the national economy: the eastern Indonesia which is very rich in natural, mineral, and marine resources for many decades
contributes only 18% to the national economy. That a collection of regions that grows positively has no big share to the national GDP. Quick
analysis to address this latent disparity points at the lacks of transort infrastructure as one determinant leading to the anomaly. This tegional
disparity will most likely be sustain in the future unless government decides to change it by means of massive and rapid development of
transport and infrastructure in the regions. This is a political economy without being too technocratic with financial concerns. Regional balancing
must be done through the development of transport connectivity both in national and local levels, balancing of urban and rural development.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
6
National Transport Policy
Urban Transport has to be Revitalised
Revitalization of Urban
Transport
Audit & Stock Taking
Develop BRT and or MRT
Enhance the Roles of Urban
Roads
Urban Transport Industry
Transport System
Management
Integration of Transport
Institutions
While our world is now in the process of shrinking and reshaping due to the transport, information, and telecommunication technology; our big cities, paradoxically, are enlarging, and overcrowding, in such a way that even the same technology is not yet able to overcome time and distance barriers. Urban areas are powerful economic entities; urban economy contributes a large part of our GDP. But ironically, not only that people movements and living are increasingly difficult to undertake, Indonesia’s big and medium cities are now in the process of rapid decaying due mainly to massive urbanization and congestion that create urban poverty and inefficient, abusive, and rather primitive urban public transport systems. (sd060697). Indonesia is in urgent need to revitalize its urban transport.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
7
Source: Consultant estimate based on several planning documents already officials such as RIPNAS, RIPN, Blue Print Inland Waterways, Airport System, GIZ’s Urban Transport Study, and draft of RENSTRA.
Magnitude of transport investment needed for 2015-
2019 (IDR Trillions). Bottom-up, sector approach
Calculation on the real needs of investment to fulfill all the magnitudes covered by sector master plans, blue prints, other planning documents, and new initiatives come up with a higher figures. Investment needed for sea transport and ports development takes into account the consequences of establishing a maritime axis of the new government, including sea tollway, and rural transport.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
8
With narrow fiscal space in the APBN,
there is a need for an innovative financing
INNOVATIVE/CREATIVE
FINANCING
APBN On-Budget
APBN 2,5% to 5% PDB
PDF/ VGF
PMN
Hibah
Obligasi /SUN Infra-
struktur
Obligasi /Sukuk Infra-
struktur
Performance Based
Annuity Scheme
PBAS
Available Direct
Payment
Availale Indirect
Payment
BUMN Infra-
struktur
Obligasi Syariah/
Sukuk
Domestic Capital Market
Off-Budget
Per- bankan
Bank Infra-
struktur
Asset Backed
Securities
Dana Pensiun
Dana Asuransi
Pasar Modal Reksa-dana
Off-Budget Private Financing
KPS/ PPP
Conven-tional KPS
Aliansi Strategis
KPS
SMI/IIGF /PIP
Swasta Murni/
PFI
Unsolicited Fasilitas Khusus
Innovative financing is imperative to fill the large gap not covered by government invetsment and other public sector expenditures.This innovative financing could be derived from both state budget (APBN, on-budget) and off-budget.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
9
We are now in the era of automobile & motorcycle blight –
demand for urban roads are endless
Urban
Toll
Roads
Mass
Rapid
Transit
The dialogue started with a
statement, saying that the
problem of urban congestion
has become so great that many
communities are coming to the
conclusion that there could
never be sufficient highway and
parking capacity to permit the
movement of all people in
private cars. The opinion was
frequently expressed that cities
were suffering from "automoble
blight"; that if the automobile
were banned from downtown
areas and satisfactory mass
transportation provided instead,
congestion would be relieved
and greater freedom of
movement would assure
economic survival for the city
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
10
Preserve mass transportation
or stagnate
The argument went on
by urging that the cities
just cannot resign
themselves to
automobiles and let
mass transportation
slide to ruin and
extinction. They must
preserve mass
transportation or
stagnate. Downtown is
doomed to die unless
cities stress movement
of people rather than
movement of vehicles.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
11
Motorized vehicles is the only relief
from congestion?
Road again?
Why not MRT?
while congestion originally
provided the excuse for the
subway, the subway has
now become the further
excuse for congestion. It
was further argued that the
automobile, far from being a
cause of urban congestion,
has in fact made possible a
necessary deconcentration
of population through the
decentralization of urban
living and working. It can be
argued that the only relief
from congestion has been
possible because of the
motorized vehicles.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
12
City is a tremendous reservoir of traffic.....
If mass transportation is not the answer, what of the possibilities of
modern highways to relieve the city of the congestion that inadequate
transportation once made necessary?
Critics insist that elaborate urban expressways are futile because of the
tremendous reservoir of traffic waiting to absorb any new street capacity.
Urban expressways and parking facilities not only will not solve the
problem of congestion but will actually make it worse.
Those who try to accommodate the private automobiles "is doomed to
inevitable failure; the better they do their job the greater will be their
failure".
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
13
Neither urban expressways nor MRT
can solve the problems
?
?
Then come the balancing argument of
demand side management that
seemed convincing; “that neither
urban toll roads nor mass rapid
transportation nor any other
mechanical contrivance can solve the
problems of massive urban congestion.
As a solution of the traffic problem
these devices are pure deception.
Putting the emphasis on supplying
transportation facilities rather than
controlling the demand serves only to
aggravate congestion. As long as
nothing is done fundamentally to
rehabilitate the cities themselves, the
quicker will people forsake them and
the greater the problems for those left
behind to cope with
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
14
Both urban tolls and MRT
are guilty
Guilty
Guilty
The balancing argument continued:
“We have the assurance, therefore,
that the problem of congestion in
urban areas has been precipitated by
the automobile;
that the automobile, on the contrary,
has been our escape from congestion;
that the automobile and mass
transportation are both guilty of
promoting congestion;
and finally that neither is the primary
culprit, but rather a host of other
factors that have resulted in the
successful attempt to crowd too many
people and too much economic activity
into too little space.
Technocratic Paper RPJMN 2015-2019
15
Replanning and Rebuilding the Cities?
Replanning & rebuilding the City
Cities thus face the difficult task of
arriving at decisions that will
determine to a major degree their
physical and financial future.
Should they emphasize expressways
and parking facilities to accommodate
automobile use, or modernize mass
transport facilities in the hope of
restoring lost patronage and reducing
the number of vehicles entering the
city?
Or will solutions depend instead on
the extensive replanning and
rebuilding of the cities”?