lohrenz gaea presentation 120315 final revised sel...outline • some facts about climate change in...
TRANSCRIPT
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An OverviewSteven Lohrenz
Dean, School for Marine Science and Technology
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We are a coastal society…
Boston
New York
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
Atlantic Ocean
Credit: NASA Earth Observatory/NOAA NGDC
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And our coasts and oceans are changing…
Credit: NASA Earth Observatory
20141984
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Outline• Some facts about climate change in general• Climate change impacts in the New England region• Brief overview of what we can expect today
Key questions: What might we expect in the future and how can we prepare for it?
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Facts about climate change• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2014:
– “Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…”
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Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:
– The ocean has warmed…Cooler than
average temperatures
Warmer than average
temperatures
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1979
Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:
– “the amounts of snow and ice have diminished”
20141979
Arctic (July to September average) and Antarctic (February) sea ice extent – IPCC (2014)
Arctic sea ice extent in September from 1979 to 2014 derived from satellite observations – NASA Visualization Studio
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Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:
– “…recent anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases are the highest in history”
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/
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Facts about climate change• IPCC 2014:
– “Human influence on the climate system is clear…”
http://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/science/overview.html
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Evidence for and Consequences of Climate Change in the Northeast
• Projected long-term trends in climate and sea level rise
• Increased risk to coastal communities• Potential impacts on marine and
coastal ecosystems
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Projected increases in average summer
temperatures in the Northeast for three time periods - early, mid-,
and late century
Frumhoff, P.C., J.J. McCarthy, J.M. Melillo, S.C. Moser, and D.J. Wuebbles. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
Average summer temperatures could increase by as much as 13o under high emission scenario!
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• Changes in average summer heat index—a measure of how hot it actually feels, given temperature and humidity
• Yellow arrows track what summers would feel like under a lower-emissions scenario
• Red arrows track what summers could feel like under the higher-emissions scenario
Frumhoff et al. 2007. Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts, and Solutions. Synthesis report of the Northeast Climate Impacts Assessment (NECIA). Cambridge, MA: Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS).
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Changing offshore ecosystems – red hake
Nye et al., Mar. Ecol. Progr. Ser., 2009
Spatial distributions shifting to north in cooler, deeper water
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The Northeast is experiencing higher rates of sea level rise
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National Climate Indicators System Report, National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee ,February 2014
And sea level is rising at an accelerating rate
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Later today…climate impacts on marine ecosystems
Environmental Changes in Buzzards Bay
Jeff Turner
Chrissy Petitpas
Kevin Stokesbury
Climate Change and Fisheries
James Bisagni
Salinity Changes in Coastal Waters
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Later today…adaption, mitigation, and risk perception
Understanding and Visualizing Disaster Risk Through Ocean Modeling
Changsheng Chen
Chad McGuire
Role of Ecosystems in Coastal Protection and Mitigation
Maintaining Critical Supply Chains During Extreme Events
Brian Howes
Perception of Risk in Promoting Social Policies for Resilience
Angappa Gunaskeran
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Our purpose:• Raise awareness of the impacts of climate
change and rising sea levels
• Understand and educate how climate change is influencing our coasts and coastal communities
• Put science into action to identify strategies for resiliency and sustainability of our marine ecosystems, resources, and our economy and way of life
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Schedule:• Day 1: Multi‐region dialogue and
educational campaign about the impacts of climate change with a focus on coastal areas in our region
• Day 2: Establish cross‐regional collaborations to share best practices, data, and expertise related to resiliency policy and planning
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Keynote Speaker: Anthony Janetos• Professor of Earth and Environment at Boston University and Director of
the Frederick S. Pardee Center for the Study of the Longer-Range Future
• Prior executive leadership positions at institutions including the Joint Global Change Research Institute at the University of Maryland, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, NASA, World Resources Institute, and the Heinz Center for Science, Economics, and the Environment
• Co-chair of the U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Lead Author and Coordinating Lead Author
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Keynote Speaker: Amy Schatz• Producer and Director of Saving My Tomorrow, a six-
part family series on climate change through the eyes of children, presented by HBO and The American Museum of Natural History
• Emmy Award winning producer and director, whose work includes: Goodnight Moon & Other SleepytimeTales (1999), A Child's Garden of Poetry (2011) and An Apology to Elephants (2013)
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Credit: Bryan Eaton / Newburyport Daily News
What might we expect in the future and how can we prepare for it?