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Locally Relevant and User-Inspired Climate Services for Farm-Related Decision-Making in Coastal Bangladesh: Methodological Insights
Saleh Ahmed Ph.D. Candidate, Arid Lands Resource Sciences & Global Change
The University of Arizona [email protected]
Coastal Climate Impacts - Tropical Cyclones - Sea Level Rise - Salinity Intrusion - Heatwaves - Unpredictable Rainfall Patterns
Climate Variability in Bangladesh:
• Sudden-onset extreme events: cyclones, extreme flooding, storm
• Slow-onset trends: heatwaves, anomalies in precipitation patterns, saltwater intrusion, sea-level rise
WHY: Importance (value of climate information into local livelihood systems) HOW: Process (strategies to integrate climate information into adaptation decision-making and livelihood systems) WHAT: Components & Frameworks (necessary institutional frameworks initiating co-creations, co-productions, co-management)
Research Question: How can climate services effectively improve farmers’ adaptation decisions in low-lying coastal Bangladesh?
- Population: ca. 1.5 million (Census 2011) - Area: ca. 490 sq miles - Diversity: Hindu, Muslim, Indigenous, & Female-headed H/Hs - Livelihoods: Farming, Fishing, Livestock, forest dependency (e.g. honey collection) - Exposure to climate risks: Slow-onset climate events (e.g. sea level rise) & extreme climate events (e.g. tropical cyclones) - Climate impacts: Salinity in croplands, decrease in agriculture production, water scarcity for human consumption, climate migration etc.
Study Area: Kalapara, Patuakhali
Theoretical Choice: - Vulnerability to the impacts of climate change is as much defined by socio-economic conditions as by exposure to natural stressors (Adger, 1999; IPCC, 2014). - One of the key indicators of local adaptation is the degree to which people have access to and are able to apply knowledge and information about weather and climate into their livelihood decisions (Grainger-Jones, 2013). - Climate services, which involve the production, translation, transfer, and use of climate information, are increasingly important for effective preparedness and response to climate-related impacts (Vaughan and Dessai, 2014). - Weather and climate information is not inherently valuable in rural agrarian settings (Carr and Owusu-Daaku, 2016). - The information must be tailored to the specific needs of the users if it is to have a positive impact on farm production and local livelihoods (Vogel and O’Brien, 2006).
Methods:
2) Different farmer groups: - Income status: Large Farmers vs Smallholder farmers (income) - Ethnicity: Ethnic minority farmers (ethnicity) - Muslim: Local majority farmers (religion) - Hindu: Local minority farmers (religion) - Female-headed farming households/female farmer (gender)
3) HH-level Semi-Structured Questionnaire Interview: 50 /farmer group – 250 total) (Sept., 2017–Jan., 2018)
4) Qualitative methods: in depth case studies, Focused Group Discussions, & Key Informant Surveys (Oct. 2017 – Jan., 2018)
Local Government Representative:
Drivers of Vulnerability: Variables that contribute to social vulnerability to climate change: - Gender, religion and ethnicity - Dependency on farming and fishing - Land ownership pattern - Access to non-farm income sources Most vulnerable groups: - Marginal farmers, who do not have:
- their own farming lands (but work as labors or lease others’ lands) - non-farm sources of income
- Women, elderly people, children and ethnic minorities, because of their:
- exposures and dependency to nature - limited resources for improved adaptive capacity
How Does Local “Systems” Function?
1) Understand farmers’ behavioral pattern, particularly how they function within their own social spaces - They go to local market every evening; watch TVs; exchange info with fellow farmers; interact with local ag extension agents 2) Identifying local “information” needs - Agro-meteorological information (e.g. rainfall variability) - Information needs are based on local (ongoing) climatic stresses 3) The information they understand - Information that entails less probabilistic nature 4) The information they trust - Information that matches with local traditional practice (e.g. relying on “Panjika”)
Some Challenges…
• What if we provide an information to a farmer who does not own lands? (land ownership)
• What if a farmer doesn’t have financial resources to purchase that particular item? (financial capability)
• What if a farmer does not speak mainstream “Bangla” language? (diversity in background)
• What if a farmer cannot read/write? (challenge of illiteracy)
• What if a farmer needs more “roads” or “electricity” than climate information? (prioritization of necessities)
Hypotheses Testing:
1) Social determinants of the use of climate information o Hypothesis (H1): People who are socially connected in the community are more likely to believe
[Y]*, receive [Y] and use [Y/N] locally available climate information.
o H2: People who are socially marginalized are more likely not to believe [Y/N], receive [Y], and use [Y] locally available climate information.
2) Economic determinants of the use of climate information
o H1: Small farmers receive limited [Y] amount of climate information.
o H2: Land ownership patterns can influence the use of climate information [Y]. *[Y] = Proved to be “YES” (true) according to my field insights/ preliminary findings. [N] = Proved to be “NO” (not true) according to my field insights/ preliminary findings.
We need to understand the dynamic interactions among various components of “systems” that can shape the use of climate information (or other resources) for livelihood decisions of a farmer.
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Final Words
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Systems level thinking helps us to understand and consider local and regional contexts, including interactions, processes, synergies, and trade-offs between various sub-components at multiple levels that are critical for resilient livelihoods. Otherwise, we might have to face increasing evidences with “maladaptation” and “vulnerability”.
