Local Elections, Long Term Effects?

The Hong Kong District Council Elections of 2011

Research commissioned by: National Democratic Institute for International Affairs

Research conducted by: The Hong Kong Transition Project

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The Context of the DC Elections

Chart of Table 1: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with your current life in Hong Kong?

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Chart/Table 2 Are you currently satisfied with the general performance of Hong Kong Government?

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Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of the Hong Kong Government*

*Samples too small for others to compare

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Chart/Table 3 Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with performance of C. E. Donald Tsang?

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Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of Donald Tsang*

*Samples too small for other parties for analysis. No significant difference from average for all with those saying no party represents them best

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2007 DC campaignmaterials

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Chart/Table 4 Satisfaction with performance of the SAR government in dealing with the PRC government

First time dissatisfaction exceeds satisfaction under Tsang

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Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of SAR Government dealing with PRC Government*

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Chart/Table 4 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the PRC Government dealing with HKSAR affairs?

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Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of PRC Government dealing with SAR Government

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Chart/Table 5 Are you currently satisfied or dissatisfied with the performance of the Chinese (PRC) Government in ruling China?

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Comparison of DAB/DP/CP/No Party on Satisfaction with performance of PRC Government in ruling China*

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Do you support or oppose the schools teaching the political history of China and Hong Kong?

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Do you support or oppose the schools to have patriotic school plays or lessons?

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Do you support or oppose the school children to sing National Anthem and have flag raising every day?

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How does the celebration of China’s National day on 1 October make you feel?

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Feelings on National Day, by Which party represents you best

Only 1 in 5 of patriotic cite DAB

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Feelings on National Day by Satisfaction with PRC Government rule of China

Over a third of patriotic dissatisfied with PRC Government rule

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Chart/Table 6 Which problem of Hong Kong are you most concerned about now personally?

Steep rise in political issues from 2010 & April 2011

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Chart/Table 8 Are you satisfied/dissatisfied with Government’s performance on this problem?

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Voters

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Table 9 Do you believe making the Chief Executive and Legco members more accountable to voters with direct elections would improve performance on solving your problems?

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Do you plan to vote for your current DC representative or for someone else?

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In principle, do you support or oppose direct election of:

All Legco seats?

The Chief Executive?

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How important is it for your District Councilor to support direct elections for the DCs, the Chief

Executive and all members of Legco?

If voters so strongly support in principle, & if DC gets more votes to block this or make it happen, shouldn’t this issue matter when you vote for your DC member?

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+4

-8 Pan-Democrats

+8

-2 Pan-Democrats

-19 Pro-government

-22 Pro-government

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Among registered voters indicating an intent to vote

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Public Opinion

• Dissatisfaction with Hong Kong Government High, & Much Higher than 2007

• Dissatisfaction with PRC Government High, Higher than any time since 1997

• Patriots more dissatisfied than ever• Support for direct elections higher• Democrats should be overwhelming favorites

to win many seats, but . . .

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Chart/Table 10 In general, do you think political parties in Hong Kong are having a good effect or bad effect on this problem (of greatest personal concern)?

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Chart/Table 11 Of the political parties in Legco, which party, if any, do you feel represents or protects your interests best?

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Which party best represents, by Registered voter with intentions to vote or not

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Would you like or not like to see your current District Councilor on the Chief Executive Election Committee or on Legco as one of the super Legco representatives?

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The Parties

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Satisfaction with party performance Oct 2011 (among registered voters indicating intention to vote)

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Trend Analysis: Difference between satisfaction and dissatisfaction with performance of the political parties

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Worries & Issues

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Following the by-elections in May 2010, the government has proposed changes. Do you support or oppose the following:

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Are you currently worried or not about these specific aspects affecting you, your family or Hong Kong?

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Of the worries mentioned, which worries you the most?

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Fundamental Changes?

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117 DC Members on Chief Executive Election Committee

• Only 30 directly elected Legco members, 60 Legco all up—DC will have nearly TWICE the influence on who is the next Chief Executive

• DC will nominate and nearly all voters vote on 5 “super” representatives—first chance for a REFERENDUM on issues, candidates & parties

• What happens when 5 reps, elected by millions, are vetoed by 15 reps, elected by a few thousand?

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In light of direct elections for Chief Executive in 2017, who would you like to vote for if they agree to run for Chief Executive in 2012?

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The following is a list of how you might describe yourself. Which is the most appropriate description of you? (Read list)

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Proportion within Age Groups of Identity Categories

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Proportions of Birthplace by Identity Categories

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Identity choices of mainland born, over time living in Hong Kong compared to Hong Kong

born respondents

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Identity by Which party represents best, among only those who have made a choice on their vote in the DC

election

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Feelings on National Day by Self Identification

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http://www.hktp.org The Hong Kong Transition Project is currently supported by a grant from: