Local Climate Impacts Local Climate Impacts ProfileProfile

LCLIP GLOUCESTERSHIRELCLIP GLOUCESTERSHIRE

Profiling the impact of extreme weather Profiling the impact of extreme weather over ten yearsover ten years

1998- 20081998- 2008

How can we adapt How can we adapt to extreme to extreme

weather in the weather in the future?future?

Where are we Where are we vulnerable now?vulnerable now?

MethodologyMethodology

Media SurveyMedia Survey

Interviews within Local AuthorityInterviews within Local Authority

Expand process to include district councils Expand process to include district councils and external partnersand external partners

•Phase 1: County CouncilPhase 1: County Council •Phase 2: District CouncilsPhase 2: District Councils•Phase 3: External partners, e.g PCT, Police etcPhase 3: External partners, e.g PCT, Police etc

129129 Media ArticlesMedia Articles

6565 Unique Weather EventsUnique Weather Events

270270 reported impactsreported impacts

Media SurveyMedia Survey

Dominant Extreme Weather TypesDominant Extreme Weather Types

Excessive Rainfall/ FloodingExcessive Rainfall/ FloodingStormsStorms

These two categories account for:These two categories account for:

69%69% of unique weather events, and of unique weather events, and77%77% of reported incidents of reported incidents

Unique Weather Events (1998-2008)

31

33

12

9

7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Storm/ Tornado Excessive Rain/Flooding

High Temp/Heatwave

Wind Frost/ Ice/ Snow Low Temp/ ColdSpell

Weather Type

Nu

mb

er

of

Eve

nts

Impacts of Extreme WeatherImpacts of Extreme Weather

Excessive Rain/ FloodingExcessive Rain/ Flooding

Storms/ Hurricanes/ Tornadoes Storms/ Hurricanes/ Tornadoes (High winds)(High winds)

High temperature/ Heat wavesHigh temperature/ Heat waves

Frost/ Ice/ Snow (Low Temperatures)Frost/ Ice/ Snow (Low Temperatures)

FloodingFlooding

1998-2008: 1998-2008: 45 45 media reportsmedia reports 1212 unique events unique events 37%37% of reported impacts of reported impacts

Twin Threat: Twin Threat: Flash FloodingFlash Flooding Riverine FloodingRiverine Flooding

UKCIP02 ProjectionsUKCIP02 Projections

• Winters up to 30% wetter by 2080Winters up to 30% wetter by 2080• Frequency of heavy rainfall events to increaseFrequency of heavy rainfall events to increase• Although summers projected to be significantly drier on average,Although summers projected to be significantly drier on average, heavy downpours may account for more of the totalheavy downpours may account for more of the total

Extreme Riverine FloodingExtreme Riverine Flooding (July 22(July 22ndnd-23-23rdrd 2007) 2007)

“Worst day in living memory” Rivers Severn and Avon burst their banksRivers Severn and Avon burst their banks

- Many communities completely cut off by flood waters, inc.Tewkesbury- Many communities completely cut off by flood waters, inc.Tewkesbury

- 5 deaths, thousands of homes are flooded, emergency services work 24/7- 5 deaths, thousands of homes are flooded, emergency services work 24/7

- Mythe Water treatment plant flooded – Walham substation narrowly escapes - Mythe Water treatment plant flooded – Walham substation narrowly escapes

- 350,000 people without drinking water for two weeks- 350,000 people without drinking water for two weeks

Case Study: Summer 2007Case Study: Summer 2007

(Longlevens, June 25th 2007)(Longlevens, June 25th 2007)

Rapid Flash floodingRapid Flash flooding

“A Floody Mess”

Waters hit 4ft then recede Waters hit 4ft then recede completely within 8 hours, completely within 8 hours, wrecking many properties.wrecking many properties.

11 (July 20(July 20thth 2007) 2007)

“Towns grind to a halt in the

flooding”

Widespread Rapid Flash FloodingWidespread Rapid Flash Flooding

10,000 motorists stranded on flooded M510,000 motorists stranded on flooded M5

500 commuters stranded at Gloucester Train Station500 commuters stranded at Gloucester Train Station

2000 people stay in emergency rest centres2000 people stay in emergency rest centres

22

33

Costs to the CouncilCosts to the CouncilProperty DamageProperty Damage: : Schools: £2.4 million Schools: £2.4 million Non-ed: Non-ed: £135,000£135,000InfrastructureInfrastructure: : Highways: £25m+ Highways: £25m+ repairs to roadsrepairs to roads

Disruption to Council Business:Disruption to Council Business: Understaffing/ overloadUnderstaffing/ overload Communication problems Communication problems Alt. travel: Alt. travel: £21,000, £21,000, Closure of Closure of Shire Hall Shire Hall

Social Services:Social Services: Re-housing costsRe-housing costs Looking after the vulnerable Looking after the vulnerable

Pressure on services:Pressure on services: Fire and Rescue: £233,000 overtime Fire and Rescue: £233,000 overtime Waste: Cost of clean-up, Cost of extra waste Waste: Cost of clean-up, Cost of extra waste Unforeseen issuesUnforeseen issues

•

Recovery CostsRecovery Costs

£50m£50m And counting…And counting…

Tewkesbury BC Residual Waste Arisings 2006/07 compared to 2007/08

1,500

1,700

1,900

2,100

2,300

2,500

2,700

2,900to

nn

es

2006/07 2,290 2,328 2,312 2,192 2,272 2,285

2007/08 2,227 2,222 2,147 2,233 2,660 2,071

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Waste Management Department:Waste Management Department:

£206,000 to dispose of extra waste generated by floods£206,000 to dispose of extra waste generated by floods

Costs of clean-up? Costs of Collection?Costs of clean-up? Costs of Collection?

Publicity and outreach department shutdown for two weeks- cost?Publicity and outreach department shutdown for two weeks- cost?

Monthly Call Volumes to Gloucestershire Highways 07/08

7500

3487

7783

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

Apr-07

May-07

Jun-07

Jul-07 Aug-07

Sep-07

Oct-07

Nov-07

Dec-07

Jan-08

Feb-08

Mar-08

Apr-08

May-08

Jun-08

Jul-08 Aug-08

Month

Ca

ll V

olu

me

January 2008 Fresh floods trigger record call volumes from customers fearful of a repeat of summer 07

June/ July 2007 Huge spike in call volumes in wake of catastrophic flooding

Council Contact Centre OverwhelmedCouncil Contact Centre Overwhelmed

Abandonment rate for Council Direct hits 10.8% (7.8% ave.)Abandonment rate for Council Direct hits 10.8% (7.8% ave.)

Communities in CrisisCommunities in Crisis

5 Lives lost Many lives saved5 Lives lost Many lives saved

Homes wiped out Homes wiped out

Families lost everythingFamilies lost everything

350,000 without water 350,000 without water

Inches from catastrophic loss of powerInches from catastrophic loss of power

•Health risk-Health risk- stagnant water- two weeks without working toilets stagnant water- two weeks without working toilets

•Agriculture-Agriculture- crops wiped out, winter-fodder destroyed crops wiped out, winter-fodder destroyed

•Impact on business and tourism- Impact on business and tourism- No power, no waterNo power, no water Gloucestershire perceived as ‘closed for business’Gloucestershire perceived as ‘closed for business’

•Long-term psychological impact?Long-term psychological impact?

•Long-term viability of communities that flood repeatedly?Long-term viability of communities that flood repeatedly?

Adaptation implicationsAdaptation implicationsFluvial Flooding (Rivers)Fluvial Flooding (Rivers)•Restrict flood-plain developmentRestrict flood-plain development (affordable homes or poverty traps?)(affordable homes or poverty traps?)

•Intelligent flood defence-Intelligent flood defence- demountable demountable barriers, low intensity land-use, expansion barriers, low intensity land-use, expansion of wetland areas (nature map) - dialogue of wetland areas (nature map) - dialogue with farming communitywith farming community

•Multi-agency flood responseMulti-agency flood response

•Predictable impacts-Predictable impacts- response planning response planning

Pluvial (Flash) FloodingPluvial (Flash) Flooding

•Unpredictable, rapid impactsUnpredictable, rapid impacts•very little time to reactvery little time to react

•Potentially more dangerousPotentially more dangerous (M5 flooding)(M5 flooding)

•Researching hotspotsResearching hotspots

•Focus on community resilienceFocus on community resilience

Dealing with psychological impact is an Dealing with psychological impact is an important element of community resilienceimportant element of community resilience

Storms (Storms (inc. high windsinc. high winds))

1998-2008: 1998-2008: 55 55 media reportsmedia reports 4444 unique events unique events 42%42% of reported impacts of reported impacts

Threat to life, disruption to roads and power Threat to life, disruption to roads and power

UKCIP02 ProjectionsUKCIP02 Projections

• Heavier winter precipitation expected to become more frequentHeavier winter precipitation expected to become more frequent• Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are Winter storms and mild, wet and windy winter weather are expected to become more frequent expected to become more frequent

HighwaysHighwaysRemoving Removing

obstructionsobstructionsRoadside Roadside

maintenancemaintenance

Health and SafetyHealth and SafetyExternal eventsExternal events

All DepartmentsAll DepartmentsTravel disruptionTravel disruptionBusiness continuityBusiness continuity

WasteWastePotential shutdown of Potential shutdown of

landfill siteslandfill sites

CAC/ CYPCAC/ CYPSocial servicesSocial servicesPower cuts Power cuts Safeguarding Safeguarding the vulnerable the vulnerable

Impact of storms on GCCImpact of storms on GCC

Property ServicesProperty Services Damage to buildingsDamage to buildings

LegalLegal Civil liability Civil liability

claimsclaims

Department/ UnitDepartment/ Unit

Countywide ImpactCountywide Impact

36 incidences of power failure:36 incidences of power failure:

• 20th February 2008: 20th February 2008: 3,469 homes- Cheltenham3,469 homes- Cheltenham

• 12th January 2005: 12th January 2005: 17,000 homes17,000 homes

• 27th October 2002:27th October 2002: 33,000 homes (Forest of Dean)33,000 homes (Forest of Dean)

•1515thth December 2000: December 2000: Storm knocks out power at nursing home Storm knocks out power at nursing home 6 schools close 6 schools close

•29th October 2000:29th October 2000: Fire Service/ Police: 700 call-outsFire Service/ Police: 700 call-outs

Transport Transport

14 Roads closures due to fallen trees 14 Roads closures due to fallen trees Real figure much higherReal figure much higher

e.g, M5 closed e.g, M5 closed Electricity cables blown onto carriageway 3rd August 2004 Electricity cables blown onto carriageway 3rd August 2004

Train services delayed/ cancelled Train services delayed/ cancelled Sapperton tunnel collapses after storm knocking out services in Stroud valleys for Sapperton tunnel collapses after storm knocking out services in Stroud valleys for 8 weeks- 18 weeks- 1stst October 2000 October 2000

Cancellation of public eventsCancellation of public events

RAF International Air TattooRAF International Air Tattoo1414thth July 2008 July 2008 CANCELLED

CANCELLED

Cheltenham Racing Festival Cheltenham Racing Festival Day 2- 12Day 2- 12thth March 2008 March 2008

Bonfire Night Bonfire Night Gloucester Docks 2000Gloucester Docks 2000

JoustingJoustingBerkeley Castle July 2007Berkeley Castle July 2007

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

CANCELLEDCANCELLED

CANCELLED

CANCELLED

Near missesNear misses!!! !!! Pub sign crashes through window of parked car Pub sign crashes through window of parked car !!!!!!

1111thth March March 20082008

!!!!!! Mini-tornado, Chelt: 30ft pane of glass blown out Mini-tornado, Chelt: 30ft pane of glass blown out !!!!!! 99thth November November 20072007

!!!!!! Mini-tornado, Tuffley:Mini-tornado, Tuffley: hurls roof tiles, debris, smashes windows hurls roof tiles, debris, smashes windows !!! !!! 1212th th December December 20062006

!!!!!! Tree wrecks summerhouse and garden sheds Tree wrecks summerhouse and garden sheds !!!!!! Cheltenham 2Cheltenham 2ndnd June June 20062006

!!! !!! Falling tree narrowly misses drivers on A417 Falling tree narrowly misses drivers on A417 !!!!!! 1515thth March March 2004 2004

!!!!!! Flag Pole peril over King’s Square Flag Pole peril over King’s Square !!! !!! 1515thth November November 20032003

Adapting to stormsAdapting to stormsPublic informationPublic information Ensure that external fittings (signs etc) and windows are resistant to high windEnsure that external fittings (signs etc) and windows are resistant to high windEmphasise the dangers of driving in high winds/ storms, esp. in F.o.D Emphasise the dangers of driving in high winds/ storms, esp. in F.o.D Stay indoors if possibleStay indoors if possible

Tree stability surveys may not be feasibleTree stability surveys may not be feasible

Designing resilience into new developmentsDesigning resilience into new developments Ensuring that council properties are resistant (secure roofs, fittings etc.)Ensuring that council properties are resistant (secure roofs, fittings etc.)

More support for event organisersMore support for event organisers

Tourism marketingTourism marketing

Prepare for the worstPrepare for the worst Ensure emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes, severe tornadoes Ensure emergency plans in place to deal with hurricanes, severe tornadoes

High TemperaturesHigh Temperatures

UKCIP02 ProjectionsUKCIP02 Projections

• Hotter, drier summersHotter, drier summers• Gloucestershire average temperature to Gloucestershire average temperature to increase by up to 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2080 increase by up to 3°C by 2050 and 5°C by 2080

1998-2008: 1998-2008: 27 27 media reportsmedia reports 99 unique events unique events 16%16% of reported impacts of reported impacts

Benefits shouldn’t blind us to the potentially severe Benefits shouldn’t blind us to the potentially severe negative impacts of prolonged hot spellsnegative impacts of prolonged hot spells

Department/ UnitDepartment/ Unit

HighwaysHighwaysHeat damage to roadsHeat damage to roadsGritting requiredGritting requiredThreat to infrastructureThreat to infrastructureRoadside maintenanceRoadside maintenanceTraffic signalsTraffic signals

Health and SafetyHealth and SafetyProtecting workers from Protecting workers from

sunburn/ sunburn/ heat strokeheat stroke

WasteWasteEnvironment health Environment health

issuesissues

CAC/ CYPCAC/ CYPSchool conditions School conditions Vulnerable peopleVulnerable people (home/ day centres) (home/ day centres)

Impact of heat waves on Impact of heat waves on GCCGCC

Property ServicesProperty Services- Ventilation/ air conditioning- Ventilation/ air conditioning

TransportTransport- Air conditioning- Air conditioning

Fire and RescueFire and RescueIncrease in fires Increase in fires

(Esp. barn fires) (Esp. barn fires)

Countywide benefitsCountywide benefits

““We’re so grape-ful”We’re so grape-ful”

2003- Vineyards enjoy vintage year2003- Vineyards enjoy vintage year

““County is cashing in on visitors”County is cashing in on visitors” Bourton-on-the-Water Model village Bourton-on-the-Water Model village = Visitor numbers Up 4%= Visitor numbers Up 4%

““86 degrees and it’s going to get much hotter”86 degrees and it’s going to get much hotter”Record visits to swimming pools and water parksRecord visits to swimming pools and water parks

2003 HEAT WAVE2003 HEAT WAVE (August 4 (August 4thth-13-13thth))

Future OpportunitiesFuture OpportunitiesAgriculture:Agriculture: Inc. growing season - better yields, new crops Inc. growing season - better yields, new cropsTourism:Tourism: Gloucestershire could benefit from extra summer visitors Gloucestershire could benefit from extra summer visitors

as Italy, Spain, Greece etc become uncomfortably hot as Italy, Spain, Greece etc become uncomfortably hot

Negative impactsNegative impacts

Increased threat of fire

Especially in forest of deanEspecially in forest of dean

Lives at riskLives at risk

Risk to elderly populationRisk to elderly population

Heightened skin cancer riskHeightened skin cancer risk

Heat & DroughtHeat & Drought

Water shortages Water shortages

Threat to cropsThreat to crops

Threat to animals/ biodiversityThreat to animals/ biodiversity

““Too hot to shop”Too hot to shop”High street trade suffers (Aug1999)High street trade suffers (Aug1999)

Potential link to crime?Potential link to crime?

HEAT WAVESHEAT WAVES

Impact on biodiversityImpact on biodiversity

Loss of Beech trees Loss of Beech trees

Adapting to extreme heatAdapting to extreme heat

Planning: Planning: Building design- air conditioning/ ventilation in schools and other council propertiesBuilding design- air conditioning/ ventilation in schools and other council properties

Heat wave plans: Heat wave plans:

Lists of vulnerable people, public warnings, sun protection for staffLists of vulnerable people, public warnings, sun protection for staff

Horizon scanning:Horizon scanning: High temp, dry conditions, high winds = forest fire threat to Forest of Dean?High temp, dry conditions, high winds = forest fire threat to Forest of Dean?

Exploring opportunities: Exploring opportunities: Agriculture/ tourism/ trade = providing stakeholders with accurate projectionsAgriculture/ tourism/ trade = providing stakeholders with accurate projections

Waste: Waste:

Accelerated rotting of waste in summer - need for seasonal waste collection? e.g weekly inAccelerated rotting of waste in summer - need for seasonal waste collection? e.g weekly insummer, fortnightly in wintersummer, fortnightly in winter

Frost, Ice, SnowFrost, Ice, Snow

•1998-2008: 1998-2008: 6 6 media reportsmedia reports 4 4 unique events unique events 5%5% of reported impacts of reported impacts

Threat of extreme cold weather will recedeThreat of extreme cold weather will recede……more likely to catch authorities off guard?more likely to catch authorities off guard?

Stroud Valleys most vulnerableStroud Valleys most vulnerable

UKCIP02 ProjectionsUKCIP02 Projections• Warmer winters: fewer cold days, snowfall increasingly rareWarmer winters: fewer cold days, snowfall increasingly rare• Cold snaps shorter in durationCold snaps shorter in duration

HighwaysHighways- Gritting/ snow ploughs Gritting/ snow ploughs - Winter maintenanceWinter maintenance

All DepartmentsAll DepartmentsUnder-staffing if roads Under-staffing if roads badly affected by snowbadly affected by snow

CAC/ CYPCAC/ CYP- Schools ClosuresSchools Closures- Fuel poverty Fuel poverty

Impact of ice/snow on GCCImpact of ice/snow on GCC

Property ServicesProperty Services- Freeze-thaw damage- Freeze-thaw damage

TransportTransport- School transport- School transport

Department/ UnitDepartment/ Unit

Heavy Snow in StroudHeavy Snow in Stroud (November 2005)(November 2005)

•38 GCC gritters work through the night to clear roads38 GCC gritters work through the night to clear roads

•400 abandoned vehicles across road network 400 abandoned vehicles across road network police use 4x4s to reach stranded motorists police use 4x4s to reach stranded motorists

•12 primary schools close12 primary schools close

Car skids into tree on B4078 Mother Car skids into tree on B4078 Mother and Baby killed and Baby killed (3(3rdrd January 2001) January 2001)

Water Mains Pipe Bursts in freezing conditions- supplies cut to Water Mains Pipe Bursts in freezing conditions- supplies cut to

2000 homes2000 homes (4th January 2002)(4th January 2002)

Reduced spend on gritters, Reduced spend on gritters, winter maintenance winter maintenance

Reduced spend on heating council Reduced spend on heating council propertiesproperties

Important to retain capacity to respond to Important to retain capacity to respond to unseasonable snowfall- e.g April 2000unseasonable snowfall- e.g April 2000

Adapting to extremeAdapting to extreme

Extreme Weather - Key MessagesExtreme Weather - Key Messages

Adaptation at service level Each department to consider more fully the implications of extreme weather and broader climate changes for its operations and objectives

This should form and integral element of forward planning and risk management

Future proof planning Extreme weather resilience to be given high priority within planning process alongside broader climate change objectives

Importance of Local Resilience Forum Regular LA liaison with emergency services and utilities to ensure that energy and water supplies are not threatened by extreme weather events

Public information As climate change projections become more detailed key messages should be communicated to business and individuals to better enable them to adapt to extreme weather and climate change in Gloucestershire

Thank youThank you

Thank you for listeningThank you for listening