loans & lending: a multi market · 2020-05-04 · loans device share pc tablet mobile uk europe...
TRANSCRIPT
Loans & Lending: A multi-market
analysis
DE, ES, FR, IT, NL, UK
Hypothesis
The combination of falling consumer confidence & recent rate changes
is likely to have had an impact on how consumers think about
financing, including their approach to loans.
How has this changed for people & businesses in 2020?
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019 2020
Seasonality range (Indexed to monthly avg)
Lending searches have picked up since Q3 2019
Lending seasonality didn’t pick up until late Q3 2019
In Jan-Feb 2020 all markets were over indexing for loans searches
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
Lending terms tend to be searched by Men
35-49 also the most popular age group for all markets but Germany
Microsoft Internal, Mar 2020
6%
10%
6%
8%
4%
8%
6%
21%
15%
12%
23%
21%
19%
13%
41%
26%
30%
46%
46%
29%
32%
24%
34%
28%
18%
22%
27%
27%
8%
16%
25%
5%
7%
16%
22%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
UK
DE
FR
ES
IT
NL
EU Total
Demographic Split by market
18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
EU
Total
UK DE FR ES IT NL
Gender split by market
Female Male
Understanding the demographic movements YoYInterestingly 65+ are more likely to search in this category than most
other age groups
Microsoft Internal, Mar-20 vs Base month: Mar-19
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Female Male
Composition Index by Gender
(Mar-19 vs Mar-20)
Europe UK DE FR ES IT NL
60%
100%
140%
180%
18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Composition Index by age
(Mar-19 vs Mar-20)
Europe UK DE FR ES IT NL
At least 7/10 searches occur on the PC
UK & Spain have the largest share of searches on the mobile device
Microsoft Internal, 2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DE ES FR IT NL UK Europe
Device share
PC Tablet Mobile
UK
Lending seasonality uptick in 2020
Lending searches have accelerated into March, peaking at 186%
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
60%
100%
140%
180%
220%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019 2020
Loans & Lending seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)
Europe UK
UK mortgage search seasonality is more prominent now
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019 2020
Mortgage seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)
UK Europe
Base rate changes in March coincide with heightened searches
A larger proportion of Loans searches occur on mobile
PC still dominates across this sector, although to a lesser extent than
Europe
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
UK Europe
Loans device share
PC Tablet Mobile
UK Europe
Morgages device share
PC Tablet Mobile
FR
Queries examples
Below are some examples of the queries used in the analysis
Microsoft Internal
LOANS - Personal LOANS - Auto LOANS - Business LOANS - Student LOANS - Others MORTGAGES
crédit personnel credit automobile financement creation entreprise simulation credit etudiant rachat de credit simulation prêt immobilier
rachat de credit conso rachat credit auto financement des entreprises pret etudiant rachat crédit prêt immobilier
prêt personnel credit auto credit entreprise en ligne taux pret etudiant credit taux immobilier
credit personnel rapide pret auto financement entreprise prêt étudiant regroupement de credit simulateur prêt immobilier
credit en ligne crédit auto simulation pret creation entreprise prêt étudiant a taux zero simulation rachat de credit credit immobilier
… … … … … …
Loans & Lending FR seasonality VS Europe
Loans & Lending searches have slowed down into March, to index
105, meaning 17 points below European index.
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
FR mortgage does not follow last year search seasonality
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
The march 2019 bounce did not occurred in 2020
Related to economical recession, business loans grow
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
On the other hand, auto and student loans decline
DE
Lending searches in March 2020 higher than last year
Covid-19 creates interest in loans above European average.
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
60%
100%
140%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019 2020
Loans & Lending seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)
Europe DE
DE mortgage searches are below European trend
Microsoft Internal, Jan-19 to Mar-20
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019 2020
Mortgage seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)
DE Europe
Low consumer confidence and pandemic outbreak slow demand
PC remains the dominant factor for loans and mortgage
searchesMobile searches for loans are above European average though
Microsoft Internal
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DE Europe
Loans device share
PC Tablet Mobile
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
DE Europe
Mortgages device share
PC Tablet Mobile
NL
Covid-19 might have driven Loans & Lending interest
Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Jan-19 to Mar-20
60%
100%
140%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
2019 2020
Loans & Mortgages seasonality (indexed to monthly avg)
Europe NL
+9% +22% +26%
Consequences of lockdowns drive category growth
33%
-5%
17%
45%
5%
26%
3%
18%
11%
-14%
10%
2%
12%
9%
-5%
2020 year-on-year search volume growth
by month and subcategory
Mar Feb Jan
Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Jan-19 to Mar-20
Growing consumer interest in
mortgages as banks are increasing
interest rates because economic
conditions deteriorated due to
lockdowns
Lockdown has disrupted business;
companies are looking for extra
credit to keep their businesses afloat
Home-owners are looking for better mortgage-deals
Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Mar-20
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
18-24 25-34 35-49 50-64 65+
Share of search volume by age group
Mortgages Loans (all categories)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Female Male
Share of search volume by gender
Mortgages Loans (all categories)
• Distribution of search volume across age groups differs for both categories
• Interest in mortgages seems to be dominated by 35-49 yr olds with
adjacent age groups following close; high share of 35 – 64 age group might
identify a consumer need to change mortgages due to the risk of rising
interest rates (as the expectation is that they already own a house)
• Especially 50-64 age group drives volume in Loans with 35-49 following
close
• Both Loans categories shown have exactly same
distribution of search volume by gender
• Across both Loans categories predominantly males
drive the search volume, accounting for 62%
Query overview showing underlying intent
Microsoft Internal, Netherlands, Feb-20 and Mar-20
Query Indexed Volume Growth Mar vs. Feb
geld lenen 100 51%
persoonlijke lening 33 23%
lening aanvragen 30 76%
lening 26 217%
krediet 25 529%
geld lenen zonder bkr toetsing 23 41%
woz krediet 19 343%
lenen 19 148%
geld lenen direct op rekening 19 -7%
doorlopend krediet 16 71%
hoeveel kan ik lenen 13 68%
zakelijke lening 9 43%
lening berekenen 9 29%
duurzaamheidslening 9 Infinite
wat kan ik lenen 9 139%
lening aanvragen zonder bkr toetsing 9 40%
geld lenen zonder bkr 7 36%
lening oversluiten 7 46%
persoonlijke lening vergelijken 6 13%
snel geld lenen 6 23%
minilening 6 -8%
microkrediet 5 254%
energiebespaarlening 5 163%
autolening 4 61%
rente persoonlijke lening 3 -29%
goedkoop lenen 3 100%
persoonlijke lening aanvragen 3 156%
persoonlijke lening berekenen 3 29%
goedkoopste persoonlijke lening 3 83%
zakelijke lening zonder jaarcijfers 3 57%
Loans (excl. mortgages) – March 2020 Mortgages – March 2020
Query Indexed Volume Growth Mar vs. Feb
hypotheek berekenen 100 46%
hypotheekrente 56 87%
hypotheekrente vergelijken 26 52%
hypotheek 23 192%
hoeveel hypotheek kan ik krijgen 16 8%
hypotheek oversluiten 13 133%
maximale hypotheek berekenen 13 26%
maximale hypotheek 8 123%
rente hypotheek 7 66%
actuele hypotheekrente 7 89%
aflossingsvrije hypotheek 7 86%
hypotheek rentetarieven 6 106%
hypotheekrenteaftrek 5 1470%
maandlasten hypotheek berekenen 5 184%
lineaire hypotheek 4 291%
hypotheek berekenen maandlasten 4 56%
hypotheekrente verwachting 3 163%
laagste hypotheekrente 3 110%
hypotheekrentes 3 41%
overwaarde hypotheek 3 90%
hypotheek calculator 3 100%
lineaire hypotheek berekenen 2 211%
overbruggingshypotheek 2 523%
overbruggingshypotheek hoe werkt dat 2 400%
hypotheek vergelijken 2 69%
nationale hypotheek garantie 2 492%
oversluiten hypotheek 2 130%
starterslening 2 491%
rentetarieven hypotheek 2 24%
hypotheekrenteaftrek 2020 2 1375%
Conclusions
Across Europe, lending searches over-indexed the monthly average in Jan-Feb 2020
More men tend to search within this vertical; the share has grown YoY
PC tends to be the main device people search on but Mobile in particular is more commonly
used in UK & Spain
Advertisers may wish to consider device or demographic bid modifiers to reach potential
customers interested in their products
Increasing the days of remarketing goals may help advertisers capitalise on customers that have
searched for certain products but cannot purchase due to current market conditions i.e.
Mortgages & social distancing rules in the UK
Microsoft Advertising’s EMEA AAIG Contacts
THOM ARKESTAALHead of Advertiser Analytics
AKHILA SHESHADRIAnalytical Lead
Tech & Telco /Auto
PHIL JONES
Analytical Lead
Finance/Insurance
SARAH ESSA
Analytical Lead
Travel
BARRY MURRAY
Analytical Lead
Retail
DOUWE VAN DER MEER
Analytical Lead WE
LUCA IMMOVILLI
Analytical Lead IT
PETER HAUBOLD
Analytical Lead DE
THOMAS HERRY
Analytical Lead FR
ZUBAIR PATEL
Data Specialist
DARIO CUGNOData Specialist