lng markets 3 sep 2013 mnes - innovasjon norge · china: three gorges dam 10 source: cnn money •...
TRANSCRIPT
1 - Classification: Internal 2011-09-15
LNG MarketsMorten Nesvik, Project Leader Marketing - Processing - Renewable EnergyGdansk 3 September 2013
2 -
1. Statoil’s LNG Portfolio
3 -
Statoil LNG Portfolio
Snøhvit plant
• 2.4 bcma to Statoil Natural Gas (USA)
• 1.5 bcma to Iberdrola (Spain)
• 1 bcm to Petronas
• Design capacity: 4.3 mtpa (5.7 bcmpa)
• Recoverable reserves ~ 200 bcm gas
• Statoil’s share (incl. SDFI) 66.79%
• Subsea field development
• CO2 storage beneath the seabed
LNG sales contracts
• Arctic Princess 145 000 m3
• Arctic Discoverer 142 000 m3
• Arctic Voyager 142 000 m3
• Arctic Aurora 155 000 m3
Shipping portfolio
Regas Capacity • Cove Point (East Coast USA) Snøhvit
4 -
Snøhvit Portfolio Optimisation• Deliveries to 14 countries
• Operations in both arctic and tropical climate
− Longest commercial LNG journey; 32 days to Tokyo Bay
− 38 days to South Korea via Cape
− Statoil’s shortest journey; 4 days to Isle of Grain (UK)
• Swap LNG cargoes for European pipeline portfolio
• Supplied from 6 countries
SnøhvitSales
SpotSources
TanzaniaSuccessful exploration
• Since February 2012, successfully completed five wells in 15 months
• Four discoveries: Zafarani-1, Lavani-1, Lavani-2 and Tangawizi-1
• Total in-place gas volumes: 400-500 bcm
• 5500 km2 3D seismic acquisition completed
• Maturing new prospects and will start a new drilling campaign fall 2013
5
LNG in the maritime industryStatoil is a heavy user of the maritime industry.
• 160 vessels of 20 different types operated globally
• Transporting 3000 shiploads of hydrocarbons annually
Statoil is committed to the development of sustainable energy systems and technology.
Statoil has been a pioneer in LNG-fuelled vessels.
6 -
Viking Energy (Photo: Eidesvik)
Stril Pioneer (Photo: Harald Valderhaus) Bit Viking (Photo: Tarbit Shippng AS)
Bergen Viking (Photo: Bergen Tankers)
2. Global LNG Supply and Demand Picture
7 -
LNG Price Markersmonthly averages previous 20 months
Source: Waterborne
USD/ bbl USD/ MMBtu
0
5
10
15
20
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
140.00Ja
n-12
Feb-
12M
ar-1
2A
pr-1
2M
ay-1
2Ju
n-12
Jul-1
2A
ug-1
2S
ep-1
2O
ct-1
2N
ov-1
2D
ec-1
2Ja
n-13
Feb-
13M
ar-1
3A
pr-1
3M
ay-1
3Ju
n-13
Jul-1
3A
ug-1
3
ICE Brent USD/bblNBP USD/MMBtuHH USD/MMBtu
8
Phasing in New LNG Capacity
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
bcm
a
Operational Angola LNG QCLNG PNG LNG
Gorgon DS LNG Sabine Pass Export Phase 1 Australia Pacific LNG
GLNG Wheatstone LNG Sabine Pass Export Phase 2 Ichthys
MLNG Train 9 Prelude FLNG PETRONAS FLNG 1 Freeport Export
Lake Charles Export Sabine Pass Export Phase 3 Qatari Megatrain Debottlenecking Freeport Expansion
Golden Pass LNG Kitimat LNG
9
China: Three Gorges Dam
10 Source: CNN Money
• 2.3 km long, 32 generators, 10% of China’s power demand
• 22.5 GW capacity (~21.2 MMtpa LNG)
• Relocation of 1.3 million people; impacting 13 cities, 140 towns, 1352 villages, 657 factories & 30,000 hectares of cultivated land
• 14 year building period
China: Three Gorges Dam
11 Source: CNN Money
Rank Project Est cost Energy Country1 Kashagan US 116 bn crude oil Kazakhstan2 Gorgon US 57 bn LNG Australia3 Ichthys US 43 bn LNG Australia4 Bovanenkovskoye US 41 bn natural gas Russia5 Australia Pacific US 37 bn LNG Australia6 Wheatstone US 35 bn LNG Australia7 Queensland Curtis US 34 bn LNG Australia8 Kearl US 33 bn crude oil Canada9 Gladstone LNG US 30 bn LNG Australia10 Three Gorges Dam US 28 bn Hydro power China
Rank Project Est cost Energy Country1 Kashagan US 116 bn crude oil Kazakhstan2 Gorgon US 57 bn LNG Australia3 Ichthys US 43 bn LNG Australia4 Bovanenkovskoye US 41 bn natural gas Russia5 Australia Pacific US 37 bn LNG Australia6 Wheatstone US 35 bn LNG Australia7 Queensland Curtis US 34 bn LNG Australia8 Kearl US 33 bn crude oil Canada9 Gladstone LNG US 30 bn LNG Australia10 Three Gorges Dam US 28 bn Hydro power China
LNG Project Break-even PriceRegional averages, FOB Plant
12 -
Simple average of project break-even prices (netted for liquids income)
Source: Wood Mackenzie
o Snøhvit
LNG Trade Movements Post-Fukushima
13 -
-68% -22% +25%
Demand for Natural Gas(pipeline and LNG)
14 -
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
a
Gas Demand by Region
North America
Europe
China
Asia Pacific (excl.China)FSU
Middle East
Latin America
Africa
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
bcm
a
Gas Demand by Sector
ResCom
Industrial
Power
Other
LNG Marine Bunkers
Source: IEA; Wood Mackenzie
Global LNG Market Balance Going Forward
15
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
LNG Supply(bcma)
West AfricaSouth AmericaSouth & East AfricaNorth AmericaNorth AfricaMiddle EastEuropeAsia Pacific
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
LNG Demand(bcma)South America
North America
North Africa
Middle East
Europe
Asia Pacific
Source: Wood Mackenzie
16 -
Risks & UncertaintiesFuture ofnuclear(Asia)
Asian GDP and demand
growth
Shale gas development
North America LNG
exportsNew demand
for LNG
Pricing ofLNG
Northern Sea Route
17 -
Thank you
US supportive of LNG, but approval process is arduous; government may change course
The road to permittingLNG exports
Department of Energy
Export to FTAcountries:
Little wait for approval, usually “rubber stamped”
Export to non-FTAcountries:
Longer review time, approval considered in “national interest”
Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
1) Pre-filing review
2) Application review
3) Post-application authorization
4) Authorization to begin operation
Policy steps to futureLNG export permitting
DoE approval for LNG export to non-FTA countries is considered according to:- Domestic need for gas / U.S. supply security- Impact on job creation & GDP- Impact on domestic natural gas prices- Balance of trade issues
Two studies commissioned by DoE to evaluate impact of exports per above criteria- Will there be a threshold at which next project is no longer in “national interest”?
Currently four applications sitting with DoE for export to non-FTA countries
- Total exportable amount in applications plus 2.2 BcF/d from Sabine Pass = 6.6 BcF/d or 10% of U.S. daily domestic production
18 -
LNG IN NORTH AMERICA
Source: US government websites; media reports
US LNG export plants operating or being developed (1 of 2)
Note: 1 Freeport LNG are ConocoPhillips, Dow and Macquarie; capacity holders’ shares shown in parenthesis refers to import capacitySource: US DOE; Energy Intelligence; Center for LNG; Wood Mackenzie; press releases; media reports
19 -
Location Owners Capacity holders Capacity Status Notes
Sabine Pass(Gulf Coast)
100% 3.5 mtpa 3.5 mtpa
9 mtpaAwaiting FERC
approval(operation from 2015)
• Authorised to export 16 mtpa to non-FTA countries• 20-yr deals for 3.5 mtpa each to BG and Gas
Natural Fenosa; MOUs for 7.7 mtpa• $3.9B EPC contract awarded to Bechtel in Nov 11
Freeport(Gulf Coast)
100%14.5 mtpa 1.4 mtpa
2.7 mtpa 0.4 mtpa
9 mtpa
Awaiting FERC and non-FTA export
approvals(operation from 2015)
• Authorised to export 10 mtpa to FTA countries• Macquarie to market 50% of capacity, other regas
customers to be offered right of first refusal on remaining 50%
Lake Charles(Gulf Coast)
100% (100%)
19 mtpa
Awaiting FERC and non-FTA export
approvals(operation from 2018)
• Authorised to export 15 mtpa to FTA countries• BG has stated it still wants to export 14 mtpa from
Lake Charles in-spite of the Sabine Pass deal
Cove Point(East Coast)
100% (68%) (16%) (16%)
7.7 mtpaAwaiting FERC and
FTA export approvals(operation from 2015)
• Already has small liquefaction unit• Submitted re-export request to DOE in Aug and
FTA export request for 7 mtpa in Sep 2011
Hackberry(Gulf Coast)
100% (60%) (40%)
3.25 mtpa Awaiting export approvals
• 2-year DOE re-export authorisation from Feb 2011• Requested DOE approval for 12- mtpa FTA export
in Nov 2011• In talks with counter-parties to agree contracts
Valdez(Alaska)
? ?
Unknown Unknown
• Would export gas from North Slope• Alaska government is keen to support LNG export• Exxon and TransCanada surveyed prospective
customers in 2010; results unknown
Modultransport
Hammerfest LNG – field development concept
New technology on several areas:
Overtrawlable subsea templates
Remote operation of subsea system
143 km multiphase pipeline to shore
No toxic discharges to sea
Onshore gas processing and liquefaction
The world’s most energy-efficient LNG-plant
Re-injection of carbon dioxide (CO2)
Products: LNG, LPG and CondensateTankers export gas to markets
Classification: Ekstern 2013-08-27
21 -
22 -
Winterisation challengesWinterisation features Statoil LNG Carriers
• Arctic Discoverer, Arctic Voyager & Arctic Princess
• Enclosed bridge wings
• Heat tracing of
− main passage ways
− exposed emergency escape routes
− emergency escape openings (weather doors and hatches)
− fire fighting equipment (monitors and nozzles)
− wheel house and cargo control room windows
• Exposed navigational equipment
− mooring areas
− air intakes for engine room, air conditioning system, cargo machinery room and emergency generator room
• Windlass and mooring winches using hydraulic oil of ‘low temperature type’.
Snøhvit
Classification: Ekstern 2013-08-27
Albatross
Production wells
CDU
Plem
Production wells
Production wells
Snøhvit
CO2 Injection well
Slug catcherInlet facilities
Pre-treatment
Fractionation
Carbon dioxide
MEGrecovery
Condensate production
LPG production
LNG productionLiquefaction cycle Subcooling cycle
Storage and loading:LNG, LPG, condensate
Precooling cycle
200-260 bar65-90 C
~1 MSm3/d = 2100 t/d4 C, 150 bar
Feed-gas21,6 MSm3/d-1 C, 70-75 bar
CO2 + H2O + Hg
< 0,1 mg/Sm3 H2O< 10 ng/Sm3 Hg< 50 ppm w CO2
C1 C2 C3
C4 < 2,5 w%
C3+C4
< 50 ppm (wt) H2O< 100 ppm (mol) H2S
CO2 treatmentSNØHVITSimplified overview