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DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016 SAFER, SMARTER, GREENER DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
LNG intelligence
1
Understanding Today’s Supply Options for Marine LNG – Modelling the Marine Demand for LNG
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
A visible share of the world fleet order book is LNG fuelled
4
1 1 1 3 3 3 4 8 9 15 21 25
35 45
56
75 88 88 88 88 88 88
30 52
77 85 91 93
14
35
52
64 67
70 70
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Num
ber
of s
hips
Year of delivery
Ships in operation Ships on order LNG ready ships
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
Beyond Norway – LNG fuelled shipping goes global
5
Updated 7 November 2016 Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels
5515
86 0 4
Operating area of the 88 ships in operation
NorwayEuropeAmericaAsia & PacificMiddle EastGlobal
8
4320
41
22
Operating area of the 98 ships in the confirmed orderbook
Norway
Europe
America
Asia & Pacific
Middle East
Global
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
LNG is leaving Norwegian niches
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Updated 7 November 2016 Excluding LNG carriers and inland waterway vessels
1
28
2
94
14 4
19
3 27
23 3
14
1311
10
1
16
6
53
6
6
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Bulk
ship
Car c
arrie
r
Car/
pass
enge
r fer
ry
Cont
aine
r shi
p
Crui
se sh
ip
Gas c
arrie
r
Gene
ral C
argo
HSLC
Oil/
chem
ical
tank
er
Patr
ol v
esse
l
PSV
RoPa
x
Ro-R
o
Tug
Spec
ializ
ed v
esse
l
In operation On order
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
Forecast methodology
Current energy demand
AIS tracks
Ship data
Regional filter
Future LNG
demand
Efficiency gains
LNG uptake
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Baseline LNG demand forecast
Shipping growth
For each segment
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
Analysis of ship segment
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40%
20% 30%
50%
10% 0%
2000 1995 2005 1900 1980 1990 2015 2010
65% Rest of World
Area in scope
80%
40%
60%
0%
20%
100%
200 100
20% of vessels account for 53% of
energy demand
Total energy demand by area (in %)
Relevant energy demand by year built cluster (in %; lowest year in cluster shown)
Energy demand concentration (in %; vessels sorted by volume)
Seasonality (in %; by quarter)
0%
20%
10%
30%
40%
Q1 Q3 Q2 Q4
Source: DNV GL AIS based analysis; IHS
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
Ship type segmentation in fuel demand
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0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2020 2025 2030 2050
Container ships
Tankers
Bulk carriers
General cargo
Car carriers
Passenger ship
Ro-Ro
Ro-Pax
Other
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
Scenario forecast
15
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
2020 2025 2030 2035
rela
tive
fu
el d
eman
d
year
Low scenario
Basic scenario
High scenario
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
Forecast methodology
Future LNG
demand Future bunker volumes
New business – fair share
Established patterns
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LNG demand forecast
Bunker volume forecast
OR
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016 19
Light blue: under discussion
Dark blue: decided
Green: in operation Source: www.dnvgl.com/lngi
Global infrastructure for LNG bunkering source: www.dnvgl.com/lngi
DNV GL © 2016
Ungraded
28 November 2016
LNG bunker demand modelling features:
– When
– Where
– Which ship type
– How much
As basis for investment decisions for LNG bunker suppliers and LNG supply chain developers
As basis for rule making decisions, e.g. national policy frameworks
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