livestock master plan: roadmaps for growth and transformation (2015-2020)
TRANSCRIPT
Livestock Master Plan: Roadmaps for Growth and Transformation (2015-2020)
Gebregziabher Gebreyohannes (HE, Dr.) Minister for Livestock Resources Development
MOA/ILRI Livestock Master Plan Project Steering Committee Meeting, Addis Ababa, 5 December 2014
Rationale for the LMP
• Livestock sector development has been a priority in all Government of Ethiopia (GOE) plans for the last two decades
• Livestock is a priority in the current Growth and Transformation Plan I (GTP I), running thru 2015
• GOE understands the need for greater funding of the development of the sector to realize its full potential
• There has been no clear strategy and action plan for the development of the livestock sector -- what could be achieved over the medium-term (5 years) and long-term (15 to 20 years)
• Ethiopia made several attempts to develop a Livestock Master Plan (LMP). This current effort began in 2013 with the use of LSIPT – Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit
• This effort was successful due to strong support from the Livestock State Ministry
The process of creating the LSA & LMP
• Accomplishing the livestock sector analysis (LSA) required that an appropriate analytical tool be identified to develop the LMP, and then learning how to use these tools.
• The LMP team, made up of MOA and ILRI staff, identified the Livestock Sector Investment and Policy Toolkit (LSIPT) as an appropriate set of tools to carry out the sector analysis for the LMP
• LSIPT came at the right time for Ethiopia – when a Livestock State Ministry (LSM) was created and a Livestock State Minister appointed
• The LSM needed to set targets and develop a livestock plan for the Growth & Transformation Plan II (GTP II)
• A Technical Advisory Committee (TAC) was set up by the Livestock State Minister and the TAC met regularly to give advice on the project activities and outputs and oversee progress
The process of creating the LMP (cont’d)
• Development of the Ethiopia LMP has been a consultative process of getting expert advice and stakeholder buy-in and ownership – ensure agreement on approach, data, parameters, and results
• 3 major production typology zones and 40 production systems (to ensure poverty reduction) were agreed upon with the Ministry of Agriculture
• Over 30 specialists were consulted on data and parameters for livestock commodities, value chains and cross-cutting issues
• Based on expert experience and available literature, the key livestock performance parameters were collected
• A comprehensive national data base and baseline (depicting the current situation) were thus established for livestock planning
• The analyses covered 6 value chains , and 4 cross-cutting issues
Livestock Sector Analysis (LSA) Production Zones
Production and productivity parameters of cattle by production zone
Lowland Grazing (LG) Mixed Rainfall Deficient Sufficient
(MRD)
Mixed Rainfall Sufficient (MRS)Lowland Grazing (LG)
Dairy Specialized
AP PS PM S M S M S M
Herd size9 7 18 2 6 3 9 5 10056 56 58 57 58 60 65 85 90
Parturition rate (%) 14 12 10 11 12 12 8 8 5
Mortality rate female calves (%)
6 7 6 7 7 7 6 1 1
Mortality rate female sub adults (%)
4 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3
Mortality rate Female adult (%)
15 16 16 12 16 15 10 6 6
Mortality rate male calves (%)
9 12 12 8 8 8 6 1 1
Mortality rate male sub adults (%)
7 9 9 5 6 4 4 3 3
Mortality rate male adults (%)
11.5 10.9 11.9 11.9 11.4 11.5 10.2 32.6 35.5
Herd size0.3 0.2 1.5 0.0 1.0 1.9 5.0 8.4 6.0
LSIPT application process ….
MOA livestock production zones and sub-zones in Ethiopia
Livestock Production System
Lowland Grazing (LG-L) Highland Mixed (MR-H)
LGAP LGP HMR-MD Medium
Small
C C
C-F
Specialized (SP)
C: CattleCam: CamelS: SheepS-F: Sheep fatteningBe: BeesG:GoatsEQ: Equines
D: DairyC-F: Cattle fatteningP: Backyard PoultryL: LayersBr: Broilers
S
Small
L
Br
Be
MediumSmallMedium
DC
G
HMR-MS
Small
SCC
S
Cam
Cam
C
Small
S
Cam
G GG
S
G
S
C-F
D
S-F
PP
Be
P P
Be Be
P
BeBe
P
Be
LSIPT application process ….
How LSIPT analysis was used to do the Ethiopia Sector AnalysisLivestock Sector Model
• The data and parameters were presented to the directors of the 3 MOA Livestock Sector Ministry (LSM) departments (Animal Health; Production and Feed; and Pastoralism) for verification
• Also carried out regular communication with the livestock experts to review the production parameters
• The LMP team (MOA and ILRI specialists) entered the “best bet” data in the LSIPT Excel modules, and counter-checked data reliability on the basis of past performance and analytical results obtained
• Results were periodically presented to the TAC and the LSM for comments. Assistance and guidance from the LSM and TAC was regular and continuous. Periodic re-analysis and revision of results was done based on LSM and TAC feedback
What does LSA mean for the development of the sector?
• LSA is a living document that guides:– Livestock sector development for the
coming 15 years and beyond– Basis for setting targets for GTP II and
future 5-year plans– Foundation for the LMP
Framework of the LMP roadmaps -- based on LSA results
• Baseline for 2015• 5-year GTP II development targets (2015-2020)• Challenges and strategies• Ex-ante testing of LMP interventions to achieve targets• Investment requirements (policies and intervantions)• LMP impacts – Return on Investment (ROI), GDP,
production-consumption balance• Activities timeline and sequencing• Complimentary interventions and success
requirements
LMP major Outcomes
• Built the livestock sector data base, baseline situation and projections
• Results from the LSA include production, technological performance of the sector, its contribution to the household and national economy, current status (2013), future potential (2028) to reduce poverty, and economic growth
• Analysis of value chain development and its contribution to GDP
• Technology and investment analysis (IRR, NPV) for different scenarios
• Analysis of cross-cutting issues (Feed, Health, Genetics, Policy)
• Analysis of institutional and policy constraints and solutions
• GTP II (2016-2020) projections and targets
• Created the foundation for institutionalization of the planning capacity of the Livestock State Ministry (LSM)
Key LMP Interventions – Red Meat/Milk
• Health – Rationalize public and private veterinary services, with privatization wherever if is feasible
• Health -- Increase productivity of local breed animals in all production typology zones through health interventions to reduce young and adult stock mortality (YASM), treat other critical diseases like FMD (through vaccinations), and parasite control (endo and ecto-parasites)
• Feed – Improve grazing lands (both pasture (LG) and range(MRS & MRD)) for more and better feed production
• Feed – Policy changes to make land available for investors for forage seed and forage production, and promote production of supplemental concentrates by flour and oil mills
• Support exports through promotion activities, animal identification and traceability, export quarantine stations, disease surveillance, export abattoir monitoring, etc.
The Six Key LMP Commodity Value Chains and cross-cutting activities
Cow dairy 1.Improved Family Dairy systems (IFD) in MRS and MRD dairy belts (peri-urban)2.Specialized Dairy Production (SP Dairy) Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goats and camels3. Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) systems in all
production zones (MRS, MRD and LG)4. Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF)Poultry •Improved Family Poultry (IFP) in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG Agro-pastoral)•Specialized Poultry (SPP) – Broilers and Layers Cross-cutting activities within each value chain3.Animal Health 4.Animal Feed 5.Animal Genetics 6.Policy
Interventions
• Crossbreeding (AI with synchronization
• Contracting out forage production
• Rationalization of public privet vet service
• Reduce YASM (vaccine and parasite control)
• Improve pasture and range land productivity
• Support expansion of commercial dairy
• Promote concentrate production (flour and oil mills)
• Promote dairy processing
Total investment (in MRS)• 146 m ETB =
Improving the capacity of AI centers and services, training of AI technicians
• 214 = Reduce YASM• 252 m ETB = Pasture
land improvement• 215 m ETB for forage
production and trade promotion
• 250 m ETB for wheat flour mill establishment
• 760 m ETB for establishment of milk processing plant
Outcomes (production, GDP contribution)
• 93% increase in milk production (4 B to 7.9 B liters)
• Cow milk GDP contribution increased from 28 B to 52.9 B ETB.
• 2.5 B liter surplus
Investment returns
• IRR in MRS = 24-33% in
• IRR for investment in commercial dairy = 29-43%
• IRR in MRD = 1% (<10%)
Priorities• Breed
improvement in MRS was recommended but not in MRD, except in peri-urban areas and dairy belts
Cow dairy
Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Dairy (IFD) in MRS and Specialized Dairy (SPD):
Internal Rates of Return (IRR) over 20-Years , 2013-2028
33
24
0
10
20
30
20-Y
ear
IRR
(%
)
Small Medium
Panel A: Improved Family Dairy
29
43
0
10
20
30
40
Small Medium
Panel B: Specialized Dairy
In MRD, AI & Synch worked in per-urban areas and milk sheds
In MRS AI & Synch
works everywhere
•IRR =33%
•Milk production
increases 8 times
•GDP contribution
increases 10 times
Impacts at national and regional levels of AI & Synchronization
In LG, AI & SynchNot tested for breed improvement
Overall AI &
Synch Results:
•93% increase in national milk
production (4 B to 7.9 B liters)
•Cow milk contribution to GDP
increases from 28 B to 52.9 B ETB.
•2.5 B liter surplus
Similar results for red meat and poultry y:
• Red meat (and milk) from cattle, sheep, goat and camel– Improved Traditional Red Meat-Milk (ITMM) very
profitable in all production zones (MRS, MRD and LG)– Specialized Beef Cattle Feedlots (SPF) very profitable
• Poultry– Improved Family Poultry (IFP) very profitable in ALL
production zones (MRS, MRD, LG Agro-pastoral)– Specialized Poultry (SPP) very profitable – Broilers and
Layers
Impacts of Investments in Improved Traditional Red Meat/Milk Production (ITMM): Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
over 20-Years, 2013-2028
17
38
23
0
10
20
30
40
20
-Yea
r IR
R (
%)
MRS MRD LGNote: 10% discount rate was used. Based on LSA results.
Impacts of Investments in Specialized Cattle Feedlot (SPF): Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR), 2013-2028
9.0
1.3
0
2
4
6
8
10
20
-Ye
ar
Be
nef
it C
ost
Ra
tio
Small Medium
Impacts of Investments in Improved Family Poultry (IFP), Specialized Poultry (SPP-Broilers and Layers): 20-Year Benefit
Cost Ratio (BCR), 2013-2028
10.5
1.54 1.68
0
2
4
6
8
10
20-Y
ear
BC
R
IFP SPP-Broiler SPP-Layer
LSIPT results changed MoA opinion on domestic and export potential of livestock & products
Panel A: Red meat
C
PWO
PW
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel B: Chicken meat
PW
C
PWO0
200
400
600
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel C: All meat
PWO
PW
C
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel D: All milk
PWO
CPW
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Panel E: Eggs
PW
C
PWO0
5000
10000
15000
2013 2018 2023 2028
Source: Based on LSIPT results.
Consumption
Production with intervention
Production without interventiion
Legend:
PW=
C=
PWO=
Production-Consumption
Balance
GDP contribution from LMP interventions for milk, red meat, and chicken meat and eggs
(2020)
74,064
82,489
10,054 5,577
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
Red meat (ETBmillion)
All milk (ETBmillion)
Egg (ETB million) Chicken meat (ETBmillion)
Public and Private investment shares by major value chains
(ETB Millions)
What do LSA/LMP results mean for the GTP II
Government livestock development policy goals need to avoid significant trade-offs:•If invest in all LMP interventions GOE can eliminate poverty in 25% of livestock keeping households (>11 million people)•Focus on poultry development to achieve better food security, enable red meat exports, and lower GHG emissions•Combination of cattle and poultry can lower domestic meat prices, while increasing exports and foreign exchange earnings•Focus on dairy development to achieve food security in domestic markets and also increase export earnings
What LSA/LMP results mean for the PRIVATE SECTOR role in GTP II
In conclusion, success in these interventions during GTP II will require full participation of the private sector:•Value adding processing by Private Sector crucial for success•Need to attract and enable very substantial private investment in livestock product production and processing. •Need dramatic improvement of the investment environment (far less bureaucracy in setting up all types and aspects of businesses).•Need far more attractive incentives private investment -- subsidized land leasing rates, low interest loans, tax holidays
MoA Reaction
• The Agriculture Minister said “GOE will adopt and implement the LMP
• Livestock State Ministry owns the LSA, GTP II and LMP developed using LSIPT
• Results taken as realistic, fact-based to inform investment decisions (based on GOE criteria: poverty reduction, food and nutrition security, or economic growth, or combination of all)
• Committed to expand the use of the tool in academy and research
Other benefits of LSIPT and LMP
• Baseline data established– Livestock national herd numbers and infrastructure– Livestock production parameters, and VC analysis– Livestock contribution of GDP and poverty
reduction– Present policies, strategies and legislations– Consensus on production and VC parameters
reached among experts
• Traceable results and methodology
LMP Research Priorities
Priority research areas to implement the LMP include:• Selection to improve indigenous red meat animals and on-farm
record keeping• Better cross-breeding of dairy cattle and small ruminants• Improved family poultry and camel improvement, and how to
manage/improve rangelands in pastoral areas• Developing new poultry lines using indigenous and exotic breeds• Reduction in animal traction and mechanization• Ensuring that research has impact - learning how to scale up
technologies• Impact assessment to support better policy decisions• Improving seed and feed options for livestock producers• How to improve livestock and livelihoods data, esp. in pastoral areas
The Core LMP Team – MOA, EIAR & ILRI