livestock interventions for building climate change resilience in the drylands tci investment days...
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Livestock interventions for building climate change resilience in the drylands
TCI Investment Days 16-17 December 2014
Pierre Gerber, Anne Mottet, Giulia Conchedda
Coordinator: World Bank
1. Characterize current and future challenges to reducing vulnerability and increasing resilience in drylands
2. Identify main interventions to enhance resilience, estimate their costs, and assess their effectiveness
3. Provide an evidence-based framework to improve decision making on alternative options to enhance resilience
4. Promote sharing of regional and global knowledge on resilient development in drylands
• Complementarity with governments and partners’ current engagements especially in in the Sahel and the Horn of Africa
The economics of resilience in the African Drylands
Coordinator: Cees de Haan, WBAction Contre la Faim, CIRAD, FAO, IFPRI and ILRI Modelling likely trends of livestock systems in the drylands of Sub-Saharan Africa
a) What are the likely impact of climate change on feed availability and animal productivity?
b) How to improve the resilience of livestock systems? assess the potential of a set of technical interventionsc) What are the opportunities for the drylands to contribute to
projected increase in demand for animal products?
Livestock background report to the Flagship report on the economics of resilience
BiogeneratorTotal and accessible biomass
GLEAMFeed & system
modules
MMAGERequirement/
animal categoryv
Conforti projections & scenarios (interventions & droughts)
GLEAMCrop
production & crop residues
(GAEZ)
2000 adjusted to Conforti projections
for 2012-2030
FEED AVAILABILITY ANIMAL REQUIREMENTS
Meat & MilkSupply, demand & prices
FUTURE 2012-2030
Gridded Livestock
of the World
BAU: 1999-2011Scenarios: ≠ sequence
At grazing shed level, full mobility
GLEAM fills up the requirements:- First by-products (if system and cohort allow)- Then crops residues - Then leaves from non agricultural biomass up to a maximum %- Then other natural vegetation (grass)
- Feed balances- Feed rations & digestibility- GHG emissions
At pixel level, zero mobility
- Feed “balances” and maps
- TLU not meeting requirements
IMPACT
Financial and economic rates of return
ECORUM
From biomass to feed
No Early offtake Early offtake of males
No Health intervention
Health intervention
No Health intervention
Health intervention
No climate effect X Baseline
Severe drought X X X X
Mild drought X X
Scenarios 2012-2030
Balances computed at pixel level (WA)
Balances computed at pixel level (WA
Summary of the effects of droughts and interventions
Baseline Mild drought
Severe drought
Mild drought + health
Severe drought + health
Severe drought + health + early off-
take males
West Africa arid (AI 0.03 – 0.2)
TLU (mill.) 27.9 26.6 24.4 28.7 26.2 24.8
TLU in deficit area (%) 20.2% 22.9% 22.5% 23.5% 23.8% 24.3%
West Africa semi-arid (AI 0.2 – 0.5)
TLU (mill.) 31.9 30.3 27.5 33.0 30.1 28.0
TLU in deficit area (%) 6.6% 9.3% 11.0% 13.1% 16.2% 13.0%
East Africa arid (AI 0.03 – 0.2)
TLU (mill.) 39.6 37.9 35.9 40.9 38.7 37.6
TLU in deficit area (%) 18.9% 20.9% 25.3% 22.1% 26.9% 28.3%
East Africa semi-arid (AI 0.2 – 0.5)
TLU (mill.) 49.3 47.1 43.3 49.9 45.9 43.5
TLU in deficit area (%) 10.4% 10.0% 12.2% 10.7% 12.5% 10.9%
Define a new functional geographical unit
10
Drylands defined based on the Aridity Index, which is consistent with UNCCD practiceParticular emphasis is given to the vulnerable areas in West and East Africa
Males early offtake
Relative merits of policies to reduce feed deficit
12
Feed deficit index on average for 2012-2030 in the drylands of West and East Africa, compared to the past sequence and assuming full animal and feed mobility within grazing sheds
Summary of average annual outputs
Scenarios Production
Productivity (animals sold per 1000 TLU)
Dry matter requirement
drylands
Total meat production
drylands
Total meat production
incl. fattened males
Baseline (Conforti, 2011) 37 million TLU 25% 428 million t 4.4 Milion tcw 4.4 milion tcw
Drought -14% -2% -26% -14% -14%
Drought + health 1% 6% -4% 1% 1%
Drought + male-26%
(+7.7 M TLU) 13%-27%
(+6.8 Mt) -26% 5%
Drought + health + male-12%
(+9.3 M TLU) 25%-21%
(+7.1 Mt) -12% 20%
Mild drought -8% -3% -4% -8% -8%
Mild drought + health 7% 4% 3% 7% 7%
• At “grazing shed” level: enough resources to support livestock sector growth but local shortages animal mobility or feed transportation
• Baseline 2012-2030: use 2.5 times more available (but not necessarily accessible) resources. In some scenarios, this may go up to 3.5 times.
• This calls for interventions in the areas of animal mobility (corridors, security, border regulations, health, tenure, ….) and feed management (storage, processing, transport, …)
• Animal health interventions need to be coupled with interventions that increase access to feed. Otherwise, full benefits may not be achieved and conflicts over resources may increase.
• Maps produced by this assessment can support targeting intervention for increased feed accessibility
• Livelihoods: how many people will the sector support in the future?
Conclusion