Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability constraints in Quang Nam, Nghe An, Ha Tinh and

Quang Binh provinces, Vietnam

Livelihood strategies under climate change vulnerability constraints in Quang Nam, Nghe An, Ha Tinh and

Quang Binh provinces, Vietnam

Using data from detailed household surveys conducted from 2009-2014/2015 in 4 different provinces (166 and 460 households respectively). The idea was to discuss various approaches to defining vulnerability and adaptation strategies.

If we use the economic losses as an indicator of sensitivity (change in income attributed to natural disaster factors), we conclude the following:

Economic losses under climate change related natural disasters in Quang Nam, Vietnam

The disaster losses are directly related to the income level of the households. Higher income households experience also higher losses.

Even in relative terms, the rich income households are those most affected by the typhoon (Ketsana)

We saw no correlation between the degree of severity of losses and the geographical location of households. Of the interviewed households, 80% of them experienced economic losses greater than 50% of their income base.

From vulnerability in Quang Nam to livelihood strategies in Nghe An, Ha Tinh and Quang Binh

Based on these findings, we could ask whether climate change in Vietnam in fact is more of a concern for richer households than poorer ones

First step was asking households the following question: ‘How seriously do you consider the following stress factors impacting your household?’. Answering on a scale from 0 to 10. Teasing out climate related stress factors, we define climate impact as high for values greater than 8.

Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An, Ha Tinh and Quang Binh, Vietnam

More poor households in 2013 are found to having experienced a high impact from climate changes (40 households vs. 28 households in the low impact group).

A test for the third order interaction term between poverty in 2008 compared to 2013 and impact of climate change being zero ,shows significance, p = 2.67%. Poor households suffer more from climate impacts (perception based)

Table 3 Poor/not poor 2008 and 2013, low climate impact households

Controlling for impact=Low

p_2008 p_now

Not poor in 2013 Poor in 2013 Total

Not poor in 2008 99 94.29

6 5.71

105

Poor in 2008 9 29.03

22 70.97

31

Total 108 28 136

Table 4 Poor/not poor 2008 and 2013, high impact households

Controlling for impact=High

p_2008 p_now

Not poor in 2013 Poor in 2013 Total

Not poor in 2008 70 81.40

16 18.60

86

Poor in 2008 14 36.84

24 63.16

38

Total 84 40 124

Search for alternative income sources is not correlated with the impact of climate change or to changes in poverty status. Contrary to what looks like a common sense reaction, poor households do not see their income base dwindling because of natural disasters. The do not rush out of rice cropping to embark on non-farm economic activities, rather they continue their agricultural activities and invest more money and labor force in rice farming.

Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An and Quang Binh, Vietnam

In this sense, the vulnerable households’ responses are short-term, individual sought solutions and certainly less viable in the long-term.

Why do poor households do not opt for alternative livelihood strategies ?

Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An and Quang Binh, Vietnam

Climate change matters for all ? Nghe An and Quang Binh, Vietnam

Poor households might not master the skills required in alternative job situations.

Poor households are trapped between a political system with virtually no compensation, when the disaster hits and a government approach with no permanent alternative livelihood strategy to offer.

Data from the last field trip, fall 2014 and spring 2015. No article yet published.

Parameter Estimates

Variable Label DF Parameter

Estimate Standard

Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept Intercept 1 0.22571 0.07951 2.84 0.0060

d101a1 d101a1. impact of flooding 1 0.03053 0.04408 0.69 0.4911

d101b1 d101b1. impact of drought 1 -0.09374 0.03859 -2.43 0.0178

d101c1 d101c1. impact of "salt water intrusion" 1 0.00629 0.02720 0.23 0.8179

d101d1 d101d1. impact of typhoons 1 -0.03209 0.04756 -0.67 0.5022

ds_income_crops (difference in crop share of total income, from 2010 to 2014):

Parameter Estimates

Variable Label DF Parameter

Estimate Standard

Error t Value Pr > |t|

Intercept Intercept 1 -0.45782 0.08783 -5.21 <.0001

d101a1 d101a1. impact of flooding 1 -0.07416 0.04870 -1.52 0.1325

d101b1 d101b1. impact of drought 1 0.14498 0.04263 3.40 0.0011

d101c1 d101c1. impact of "salt water intrusion" 1 0.01021 0.03005 0.34 0.7351

d101d1 d101d1. impact of typhoons 1 0.06861 0.05254 1.31 0.1961

ds_income_animal

In terms of changes in economic activities, households react to drought but not to flooding. When asked about the severity of different disasters, households claim flooding is more important.

An explanation could be drought is a new climate related phenomenon and more difficult to cope with.

Migration and de-agrinization• In other recent articles authors argue

that migration is a livelihood strategy for household exposed to agricultural and economic shocks (Nguyen et al., 2015). Migration for education is more likely among households with higher income.

• Other studies again are in line with our own findings arguing that all households are experiencing negative effects of disasters and access to remittances can help households to survive the disasters (Arouri et al, 2015).

• We believe the increasing migration of family members is the first step in a general de-agrinization of the villages we visit.