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TRANSCRIPT
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
Thursday, April 8, 2010
6:30 p.m. - 8:00 p.m. Eastern time
Exploring U.S. Regional Climate Change Impacts: Why It Matters to You
By: Dr. Steve McNulty and Vicki Arthur
Section I
Exploring U.S. Regional Climate Change Impacts: Why It Matters to You
Dr. Steven McNulty USDA Forest Service
North Carolina State [email protected]
What is Climate Change??
Change in Air Temperature from the average of the 1950’s-1980’s compared to the 1990’s
Earth MoonGreen House Gas % in the Atmos 5 0
Distance from Sun (millions of km)
Day/Night Temperature Range (oC)
Average Temperature (oC)
107/-153
-2321
26-17
149 149
Mercury Venus
Green House Gas % in the Atmos <1 95
Distance from Sun (millions of Km)
Daily Temperature Range (oC)
Average Temperature (oC) 450
450/450
400
58
420/-150
108
Poll Question
According to the historical data, is climate change cyclical?
√ Yes X No
400,000 Years of Antarctic CO2 and Temperature Change
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2001
Northern Hemisphere Carbon Emissions
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature
Source: Climate Change Impacts on the US, NAST, 2000
“Simulations of the response to natural forcings alone … do not explain the warming in the second half of the century” SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
“..model estimates that take into account both greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols are consistent with observations over this period” SPM
Stott et al, Science 2000
What other Factors could increase or decrease Global Warming
in the long and short term?
[Type in the chat]
Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
Section II
How is/will climate change be impacting you?
Regional impacts
IPCC world CC map
Alaska and Canada
Poll Question
Which of the impacts of climate change might have a positive, short term effect?
A) Forest Production
B) Insects
C) Sea Ice thinning
Change in Forest Productivity from 1982 to 1999
Nemani et al., Science June 6th 2003
Insects
Spring bud-burst dates for Aspen in Edmonton
The increase in growing season length over the last 50 years averaged for eight stations in Alaska having the longest and most consistent temperature records.
Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
Rocky Mountains and Western US
Large scale (> 400 ac) Wildfires and Air Temperature
From Westerling et al. 2005
Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate
change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
Eastern US
Sugar maple
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
Percent of the continental USA with a much above normal proportion of total annual precipitation from 1-day extreme events
(more than 2 inches or 50.8mm)
Karl et al. 1996
BW 7
Areas of Soil Erosion By 2030 On UNF
Loblolly pine
Iverson et. al GTR NE265
> 25% DECLINE
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Timberland Acreage Shift 1993 – 2040: No Climate Change Baseline
Timberland Acreage Shifts by 2040 Due to Hadley Climate Change
5%-25% DECLINE
<5% CHANGE
5%-25% INCREASE
Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate
change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
Coastal Areas
Results of Sea Level Rise
Gulf Coast Region
Results of Sea Level Rise
1.5 Meter Rise
Graphic by Hugo Ahlenius
BLEACHING OF CORAL REEFS BY OCEAN TEMPS > 85deg F (29 deg C)
Locations of Coral Reef Bleaching
Can you think of other potential long and short term impacts of climate
change for this region?
[Type in the Chat]
Let’s Pause Two Minutes for
Questions from the Audience
Summary of Impacts
U.S. Forest ServiceU.S. Forest ServiceSection ISection I
Education Resources Education Resources to Help You Bring the to Help You Bring the
Climate Change Issue HomeClimate Change Issue Home
globalchange.gov
U.S. Global Change Research Program
National Academies of Science
national-academies.org
www.nas.edu/climatechange
http://fs.usda.gov/conservationeducationhttp://fs.usda.gov/conservationeducation
Carbon, Oxygen, Carbon, Oxygen, Water and Shade: Water and Shade: Putting a Price on Putting a Price on the Benefits of Your the Benefits of Your School Yard TreesSchool Yard Trees
Vicki ArthurVicki ArthurDavid V. BloniarzDavid V. Bloniarz
U.S. Forest Service U.S. Forest Service
i-Tree: Demonstrating That i-Tree: Demonstrating That Trees Pay Us Back!Trees Pay Us Back!
Itree curriculum:Itree curriculum:
www.itreetools.orgwww.itreetools.org
www.treebenefits.com
Natural Inquirer
Forest Service’s
Science Education Journal
www.naturalinquirer.org
GreenSchools!GreenSchools!www.plt.orgwww.plt.org
Thanks!Thanks!
Thank you to the sponsor of tonight's Web Seminar:
http://learningcenter.nsta.org
http://www.elluminate.com
National Science Teachers AssociationDr. Francis Q. Eberle, Executive Director
Zipporah Miller, Associate Executive Director Conferences and Programs
Al Byers, Assistant Executive Director e-Learning
LIVE INTERACTIVE LEARNING @ YOUR DESKTOP
NSTA Web SeminarsPaul Tingler, Director
Jeff Layman, Technical Coordinator