Liudmyla Yu. Bozhko Summary of Lectures in the Discipline of‘ASSESSMENT OF EXTREME PHENOMENA

IMPACT ON PLANT PRODUCTIVITY’

159173-TEMPUS-DE-TEMPUS-JPCR ‘EU BASED COURSE IN FOODSTUFF EXPERTISE & QUALITY CONTROL’

UDK 63: 551. 5BBK 40.2B 70 Bozhko, L.Yu., 2012: Assessment of Extreme Phenomena Impact on Plant Productivity. Summary of Lectures. Odessa, ____p. The summary of lectures in ‘Assessment of Extreme Phenomena Impact on Plant Productivity’ features description of extreme atmospheric phenomena, their criteria and synoptic conditions for their occurrence in the territory of Ukraine. Much attention is given to the account of influence of extreme phenomena on crop productivity. Computational methods for quantitative assessment of the impact of extreme atmospheric phenomena on crop growth, development and productivity are given description. The summary is intended for the specialist and master level students of full-time and extramural studies and can turn a useful practical manual for the professionals in the field of Agricultural Meteorology and Agroecology.

Odessa - 2012

 Lecture 1.INTRODUCTION. Aim and Tasks of the Discipline...............................................3Lecture 2.1. Environmental Quality as a Problem of the 21st Century.....................................7Lecture 3.Hazardous Rain and Wind Related Meteorological Phenomena.............................14 Heavy Rains......................................................................................................14 Large Hail.........................................................................................................17 Wind and the Extreme Phenomena Related to It..............................................19 Dust Storm.........................................................................................................21 Lodging of Crops..............................................................................................24Lecture 4.Hazardous Phenomena and Their Environmental Impact........................................32 Droughts............................................................................................................32 Hot Dry Winds..................................................................................................34

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Lecture 5.Influence of Arid Conditions and Overwetting on Yield.....................................37 Arid Conditions and the Productivity of Plants.............................................37 Soil Overwetting and Yield...........................................................................42Lecture 6. Light Frosts....................................................................................................50Lecture 7. Winterkilling of Plants..................................................................................66Lecture 8. Damping-out, Retting and Other Types of Winter Damages.......................79Lecture 9. Soil Erosion...................................................................................................93 Water Erosion................................................................................................93 Wind Erosion.................................................................................................97Lecture 10. Extreme Phenomena and Their Influence on Agriculture............................99Literature……….................................................................................................116

Lecture 2 

1. ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY AS A PROBLEM OF THE 21ST CENTURY

  Environmental problems caused by anthropogenic changes

 Human economic activity has always had an influence on the environment. At the initial stage of civilization development

under a small population number and limited technical facilities those influences were of local nature. The progressing impact on nature, including the atmosphere and, therefore, the climate, set in with an increase in population number and transition to large industrial factories.

In the opinion of a number of specialists, the strongest impact on the climate in the industrial epoch resulted from changes in gas composition of the atmosphere which makes for the warming up. In view of this, the theory of greenhouse effect was assumed as an explanation of the global warming.

The greenhouse effect is a property of the atmosphere to let a solar radiation through but trap the Earth’s radiation, which thereby contributes to accumulation of heat by the Earth.

Accumulation of carbon dioxide, methane, chlorofluorocarbons, nitrogen oxide, troposphere ozone and other gases and aerosols which let short-wave rays through in the atmosphere impedes the long-wave radiation. This results in a gradual warming up of the climate.

Environmental problems caused by anthropogenic changes The principal greenhouse gas is СО2, and the temporal dynamics of its content is relatively well studied.

During the industrial epoch there initially occurred slow, and later, the accelerated increase in the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. With the scientific and technological progress in the field of power engineering it is possible to anticipate a decline in СО2 emissions into the air due to substitution of burning up organic fuel for the processes of energy generation by the instrumentality of thermonuclear fission. Along with the СО2 of anthropogenic origin, there are natural sources of the inflow of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere – volcanos, mineralization of plant and animal residual and the like[1, 2].

By the geographical location, the structure of national economy and the environmental condition, Ukraine is one of the countries for which socio-economic consequences of climate change may become irreversible.

Therefore an important constituent of the problem of global climate change is finding a solution to the agrometeorological task of assessment of the change in agroclimate conditions for growing crops and the impact of these changes on their productivity. Agriculture is the most vulnerable sector of Ukrainian economy in relation to climate fluctuations and changes. With the inertial nature of agriculture and dependence of its efficiency on weather conditions taken account of, it is high time now to make timely and adequate decisions regarding the complex problems conditioned by the climate change.

Environmental problems caused by anthropogenic changes 

Marked changes in the air temperature occurred within the latest 2 – 3 decades. According to the data of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the mean annual averaged temperature in the 20 th century rose 0.6 °С. The intensity of temperature increase grew almost three times.

The results of calculations under various climate scenarios show that the process of global climate change, which has already taken shape, may result in 2-4 °С increase of the average annual air temperature in the Northern hemisphere even in 2025-2030.

In connection with the expected rise in the air temperature in the Northern hemisphere, food safety in Ukraine will largely depend on the efficiency of adaptation of agriculture to the climate change in the future. This calls for an advance assessment of the impact of the expected climate change on the agroclimate conditions for crop growing.

The main task of Agroecology consists in quantitative assessment of consequences and probable negative tendencies in relation to the impact of climate change on the efficiency of agricultural production and foodstuff quality in Ukraine; assessment of gross harvest of crops and food safety in Ukraine; scientific substantiation of measures for adaptation of agriculture to the anticipated climate change and account of climate change factor at shaping the public policy in the sphere of foodstuff (vegetable) production.

Environmental problems caused by anthropogenic changes  Various models are used for the research into possible consequences of the climate change. In the process of development of climate change scenarios for the territory of Ukraine calculations with the use of the following models can be used:- GISS –a model of Goddard Institute for Space Studies, with the sensitivity to doubling of СО2 content of 4.2 С;- GFDL – a model of the Laboratory of Geophysical Hydrodynamics, USA, with the sensitivity to doubling of СО2 content of 4.0 С;- CCCM – a model of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, with the sensitivity to doubling of СО2 content of 3.5 С;- UKMO – a model of the Meteorological Bureau of the United Kingdom, with the sensitivity to doubling of СО2 content of 3.5 С.

Environmental problems caused by anthropogenic changes 

Every society in the course of its existence adapts to natural and climate conditions in the inhabited territory. But there are emergency situations, when the natural phenomena cause negative impact on population activity and human health. Such phenomena are called natural calamities.

The researches showed that, owing to the anthropogenic climate change, recurrence of such phenomena increased considerably.

Within the latest decade only in Europe almost 40 thousand persons died as a result of natural cataclysms. According to the UNO data, the natural calamities, the major of which were related to weather conditions, caused annual damages for the people ranging between USD 5 to 10 billion. In Europe the temperature rise in summer, which is 4-8 °С above the normal, caused an increase in the death rate of up to 21 thousand persons per year.

Among the extreme natural phenomena the hydrometeorological ones are more dangerous for the humanity and human activity than the geophysical ones (table. 1.1).

Natural phenomena, continents

Total number of catastrophes Total number of injured Total number of

casualtiesTotal amount of damages

(USD, billion)

Asia 2035 1888224 598290 403.5America 1057 78041 47893 212.9Floods 888 1442521 97747 272.8Africa 804 13598 38078 2.3Storm winds 748 252401 205635 198.1Europe 644 34495 23239 19.3Droughts / hunger 223 381602 280007 30.5Earthquakes 221 59249 17023 239.6Avalanches, mud flows 173 9550 2150 1.7Oceania 143 18071 3617 11.8Forest and steppe fires 123 3422 626 26.3Extreme temperatures 112 9124 6065 16.7Volcano Eruptions 54 2157 942 0.8Other 25 2718 60 0.3

Table 1.1 - WМО data on the registered natural catastrophes in the last decade of the 20 th century

Environmental problems caused by anthropogenic changes As is evident from the table, droughts, storm winds and floods are the most

dangerous for people. It should be noted that earthquakes cause considerable losses for the national economy but they pose a threat to the human life to a lesser extent.

Sufficiently wide spectrum of the extreme phenomena has been registered in Ukraine. Among them extreme precipitation is the most frequently observed in almost 50% of cases), high winds and tornados are registered in 20% of cases and the remaining 30% fall at light frosts, glaze ice and frost phenomena, fogs, hail etc.

1.2 HAZARDOUS WEATHER PHENOMENA AND THEIR IMPACT ON CROP PRODUCTIVITY

 1.2.1 Hazardous weather phenomena and their criteria

  Hazardous (elemental, extreme) hydrometeorological phenomena are characterized by considerable changeability in time and space, and they are notable for their complexity and mixed character.

The elemental phenomena (natural calamities) meet the following criteria:Heavy rain and extreme precipitation –the amount of precipitation is equal to or more than 50 mm for a period of up to 12 hours;

in the mountains, mudstone areas and the districts associated with storm hazard is equal to or more than 30 mm for a period of up to 12 hours;

Heavy thundershower – the amount of precipitation is equal to or more than 30 mm for a period of up to 1 hour;Continuous rain –the amount of precipitation is equal to or more than 100 mm and for a period of 1 – 3 days;Large hail –the diameter of hailstones is equal to or more than 20 mm;Wind, squalls, hurricanes, tornados –the maximum wind speed is equal to or more than 25 m per sec;Heavy dust (sand) storms – the wind speed is more than 15 m per sec;Heavy snowstorms – the wind speed at day- or night time is equal to or more than 15 m per sec and is accompanied by the

snowfall;Heavy snowfalls – the visibility is equal to or less than 100 m;

1.2.1 Hazardous weather phenomena and their criteria  Heavy glaze ice –the diameter of accretion on the wires of standard glaze-ice frame is equal to or more than 20 mm;Nipping frost – when the absolute minimum of air temperature in the southern provinces of Ukraine falls to -25°С and below, and

in the rest of the territory – to -30 °С and below. Especially dangerous air temperature is -35 °С and below;Fierce heat - when the absolute maximum of air temperature in the southern and south-eastern provinces rises 35 °С and higher,

and in the northern and north- western provinces of Ukraine – up to 30 °С and higher. Especially dangerous air temperature exceeds 40 °С;

Extreme fire risk – an index of fire hazard is more than 10,000 °С (by the formula of V.G. Nesterev);Hot dry wind – a day is considered the one of hot dry wind when the air temperature is higher than 25 °С, relative air humidity is

less than 30 %, and the wind speed is more than 5 m per sec;Drought – develops under the prolonged absence of rain coupled with high evaporation. Under such conditions the soil cover,

where roots spreads, is dried up and the normal water-supply of plants is disturbed;Light frosts – a decline in the temperature of air (or on the soil surface) to 0°С and below against the general background of

positive temperatures during a vegetation period.

Ukraine, Zaporizhzhya province, Melitopol Disctrict, 2012

USA, 2012 Moldova, 2012

1.2.1 Hazardous weather phenomena and their criteria  Extremely high pollution of natural environment. When extremely high pollution of natural environment is assessed, the time, passed from

the moment of its appearance to the moment of detection as well as the place of distribution should be considered.A criterion for the atmospheric air is the content of one or several substances exceeding a maximum permissible concentration (MPC):

– 20 - 29 times, provided this level of concentration is retained for more than 2 days;– 30 - 49 times, provided this level of concentration is retained for 8 hours and more;– 50 times, regardless of duration.The criteria for surface sea waters are as follows:- one-time maximum content of one or several restricted substances in a concentration which exceeds MPC one hundred times and more; - occurrence of a water odour formerly improper for the water with the intensity of more than 4 points; - scum coverage on more than 1/3 of water body surface under the visually accessible area of up to 6 sq. km; - decline in the content of dissolved oxygen to 2 mg/l and less.

The criteria for soils are:- content of pesticides in the concentrations which are 50 times or more exceed the MPC under sanitary-and-toxicological criteria, or 10

times higher than the MPC under phytotoxicity criteria;- content of technogeneous pollutants in the concentrations which 50 and more times exceed those of the MPC;- in the cases of the substances for which the MPC in the soil is not fixed, a 100-time exceedence of the average regional background is

accepted.

1.2.1 Hazardous weather phenomena and their criteria   Occurrence of extremely high levels of natural environment pollution, caused by the escape and the volley emissions of

pollutants, is detected when:- the volume of sewages from stationary sources or the concentration of pollutants in the sewages increase 10 times and more;- the volume of discharged oil and other products from oil pipelines makes up 10 tons.

Extremely high pollution of the natural environment is a fact of negative influence on flora and fauna which manifests itself in mass morbidity or mortality of:- water organisms and plants,- animals, when the morbidity or mortality rate 3 and more times exceeds the average level;- vegetation. High water levels – during floods, wind tides (pileup), rain and meltwater floods, which may result in underflooding of the low-lying parts of settlements, sown crops, highways and railways as well as damage to industrial and transport facilities.

Low water levels – the ones which are lower than the estimated reference marks for water intake facilities, the navigation levels and are observed for ten days and more.

1.2.1 Hazardous weather phenomena and their criteria   Water Shortage in a low water period alternates with water discharges and persists for more than a month with the recurrence of

higher than once a decade.Early autumn ice drift – setting in of freeze-up in navigable rivers, with the recurrence of higher than once a decade.Mud flows and snow avalanches – formation of which poses a threat to the objects of national economy.Wind heaving in large reservoirs – wave height of 3 m and higher.Frosting of ships – rapid and very rapid (0.7 cm per hour and higher).Strong (high) heaving in seas – wave height of more than 3 m for the Sea of Azov and of more than 6 m for the Black Sea and the

Mediterranean.

High or low sea levels – wind induced setup/setdown fluctuations in sea levels above or below conventional / reference marks under which emergency situations in the fleet, flooding of docklands and other coastal economic units are observed.

Strong harbor seiche in seaports causes emergency situations for ships in the seaport aquatoria.Intensive ice drift, emergence of ice which is impassable for the ships, ice pressures to the coast causes dangerous conditions for

navigation and may result in emergency situations in the fleet, damages to port facilities and coastal constructions and structures.

Task for self studies Using mass media reports and internet technologies,

give a description of all the major extreme natural phenomena of 2010 and 2011, their influence on economic activity in Ukraine, Europe and the world as a whole. Economic loss in particular countries, Europe as a whole, and worldwide.

Questions for Control 1. Give definitions to the concepts of extreme (elemental) natural phenomena and, particularly,

the hydrometeorological ones.2. Criteria for the extreme hydrometeorological phenomena.3. Enumerate the types of hazardous phenomena in rivers, seas and reservoirs.4. Wind of what speed is considered a ‘squall’? 5. Give an example of the economic loss caused by an extreme hydrometeorological

phenomenon of 2011 in Ukraine.6. In which cases a snowfall is considered an extreme phenomenon?7. In which season heavy rains are the most frequent? 8. Name the districts in the territory of Ukraine where dust storms are the mostrecurrent.9. Name extreme phenomena of the highest recurrence.10. Owing to which reasons has the number of extreme phenomena increased within the latest

decade?

Literature 1. Ivus, G.P., Bablumian, О.D., 2007: Elemental Meteorological Phenomena in Ukraine. ‘TES’,

Odessa, 92 p. (In Ukrainian)Івус Г.П., Баблумян О.Д. Стихійні метеорологічні явища в Україні. –Одеса: «ТЕС», 2007.

- 92 с.2. Logvinov, K.T., Babichenko, V.N., Kulakovskiy, M.Yu., 1972: Hazardous Weather

Phenomena in Ukraine. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 234 p. (In Russian)Логвинов К.Т., В.Н. Бабиченко, Кулаковский М.Ю. Опасные явления погоды на

Украине.-Л.: Гидрометеоиздат. 1972. -234 с.3. Logvinov, K.T., ed., 1973: Hazardous Hydrometeorological Phenomena in the Ukrainian

Carpathians. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 189p. (In Russian)Опасные гидрометеорологические явления в Украинских Карпатах. Под ред. К.Т.

Логвинова. –Л.: Гидрометеоиздат. 1973.- 189с. 

Literature 

4. Polevoy, А.N., 1992: Agricultural Meteorology. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 420 p. (In Russian)

Полевой А.Н. Сельскохозяйственая метеорология.–Л.: Гидрометеоиздат,1992. – 420с..5. Babichenko, V.N., ed., 1991: Elemental Meteorological Phenomena in Ukraine and

Moldavia. Hydrometeorological Publishing House, Leningrad, 225 p. (In Russian)Стихийные метеорологические явления на Украине и в Молдавии. Под ред. В.Н.

Бабиченко. –Л.: Гидрометеоиздат, 1991. – 225 с.6. Lipinskyi, V.M., Osadchyi, V.І., Babichenko, V.N., ed., 2006: Elemental Meteorological

Phenomena in the Territory of Ukraine within the Latest Twenty-Year Period (1986 - 2005). ‘Nika-Center’, Kyiv, 311 p. (In Ukrainian)

Стихійні метеорологічні явища на території України за останнє двадцятиріччя ( 1986 – 2005 рр.) За редакцією В.М Ліпінського, В.І. Осадчого, В.М. Бабіченка. –Київ : Ніка – Центр. 2006.-311 с.